PDR_supp37_coverFINALPRINT 2/13/14 4:33 PM Page 1 Ronald D. Lee David S. Reher Editors Demographic Transition and Its Consequences A Supplement to Vol. 37, 2011 POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Population and Development Review seeks to advance knowledge of the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic development and provides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy. EDITORS Paul Demeny Geoffrey McNicoll MANAGING EDITOR Ethel P. Churchill EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Paul Demeny, Chair Susan Greenhalgh John Bongaarts Geoffrey McNicoll Ethel P. Churchill EDITORIAL STAFF Robert Heidel, Production Editor Y. Christina Tse, Production/Design Sura Rosenthal, Production ADVISORY BOARD Alaka Basu Ronald D. Lee Xizhe Peng John C. Caldwell Massimo Livi Bacci Samuel H. Preston David Coleman Wolfgang Lutz Vaclav Smil Richard A. Easterlin Akin L. Mabogunje Dirk van de Kaa Charlotte Höhn Carmen A. Miró James Vaupel S. 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The full contents of volumes 1–31 (1975–2005) are available through participating libraries from JSTOR at www.jstor.org/journals/00987921.html Population and Development Review (ISSN 0098-7921 [print]; 1728-4457 [online]) is published quarterly on behalf of the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA by Blackwell Publishing, with offices at 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 155 Cremorne Street, Richmond, Australia. Blackwell Publishing is now part of Wiley-Blackwell. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ITS CONSEQUENCES DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ITS CONSEQUENCES Ronald D. Lee David S. Reher Editors POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW A Supplement to Volume 37, 2011 POPULATION COUNCIL New York ©2011 by The Population Council, Inc. All rights reserved. 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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Demographic transition and its consequences / Ronald D. Lee, David S. Reher, editors. p. cm. “Population and development review, a supplement to volume 37, 2011.” Includes bibliographical references. Summary: “The chapters explore the consequences of the demographic transition--characterized by low mortality and low fertility--in modern industrial societies and emerging economies. Aside from its immediate effect on population aging, the transition has implications for family and kinship patterns, public finance, the welfare state, and intergenerational relations”- -Provided by publisher. ISBN 978-0-87834-123-8 (alk. paper) 1. Demographic transition. 2. Population aging. I. Lee, Ronald Demos, 1941- II. Reher, David Sven. III. Population Council. IV. Population and development review ; vol. 37, 2011 (Supplement) HB887.D445 2011 304.6’2--dc22 2010053112 ISSN 0098-7921 ISBN 978-0-87834-123-8 Printed in the United States of America. CONTENTS Acknowledgments vii Introduction: The Landscape of Demographic Transition and Its Aftermath 1 RONALD D. LEE DAVID S. REHER IMPLICATIONS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION PAST AND PRESENT Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition 11 DAVID S. REHER The Role of the Demographic Transition in the Process of Urbanization 34 TIM DY S ON Long-Term Effects of the Demographic Transition on Family and Kinship Networks in Britain 55 MICHAEL MURPHY How Much Does Family Matter? Cooperative Breeding and the Demographic Transition 81 REBECCA SEAR DAVID COALL AGING AND INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS Generational Economics in a Changing World 115 RONALD D. LEE ANDREW MA S ON Generational Transfers and Population Aging in Latin America 143 LUIS RO S E R O -BIXBY Population Aging and the Future of the Welfare State: The Example of Sweden 158 TOMMY BENGtssON KIrk SCO tt REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES The Future of a Demographic Overachiever: Long-Term Implications of the Demographic Transition in China 173 WANG FENG Achievers and Laggards in Demographic Transition: A Comparison of Indonesia and Nigeria 191 GEOffrEY MCNICOLL PAST AND FUTURE IN THE LONG PERSPECTIVE Who’s Afraid of Population Decline? A Critical Examination of Its Consequences 217 DAVID COLEMAN ROBE rt ROW T HO R N Population Policy and the Demographic Transition: Performance, Prospects, and Options 249 PAUL DEMENY AUTHORS 275 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This volume derives from papers presented at a meeting on “The Long-Term Implications of the Demographic Transition” held in Madrid, Spain, in Septem- ber 2009. The meeting was organized and sponsored by the Fundación Ramón Areces and the Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS), a consolidated multi-institutional research group funded by the Madrid Regional Government. GEPS is made up of researchers from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), the Univer- sidad de San Pablo-CEU, and the Spanish Research Council (CSIC). Participants at this Madrid meeting agreed that publication of a selection of the papers would be a useful contribution to the field. In addition to the authors represented here, those attending the meeting—and equally responsible for its success—include: Tim Hatton, Bobbi Low, Lesley Newson, Héctor Pérez Brignoli, Jan Van Bavel, Gustavo de Santis, Giambattista Salinari, Peter Richerson, Ralph Hakkert, Blanca Sánchez Alonso, Miguel Requena, Juan Antonio Fernández Cordón, Joaquín Arango, Vicente Pérez Moreda, Ignacio Duque, Rosa Gómez Redondo, Leandro Prados de la Escosura, César Molinas, Teresa Castro, Diego Ramiro, and Nicolás Sánchez Albornoz. We would like to take this opportunity to thank all of them. Special thanks are also due to Elisa Muñoz Barba, who coordinated the entire event. This PDR Supplement has been made possible thanks to generous funding provided by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the Grupo de Estu- dios Población y Sociedad (GEPS), the Center on the Economics and Demogra- phy of Aging (CEDA) of the University of California at Berkeley, and the Centro Centroamericano de Población (CCP) of the Universidad de Costa Rica. Finally, we extend our thanks to the staff of Population and Development Review for their able help in preparing this book for publication. R.D.L. D.S.R. vii Introduction: The Landscape of Demographic Transition and Its Aftermath RONALD D. LEE DAVID S. REHE R The goal of this volume is to discuss the long-term implications of the demo- graphic transition throughout the world. The term “demographic transition” refers to the secular shift in fertility and mortality from high and sharply fluctuating levels to low and relatively stable ones. This historical process ranks as one of the most important changes affecting human society in the past half millennium, on a par with the spread of democratic government, the industrial revolution, the increase in urbanization, and the progressive increases in educational levels of human populations. During the transition, mortality typically begins to decline first, fol- lowed some decades later by fertility decline, leading to a series of changes in population growth rates, size, and age distribution that continues for many decades. This pivotal process started in many European countries and parts of the Americas well over a century ago and is currently underway in most of the world. The presumption is that it will eventually affect all countries.1 No country has completed this process, since mortality decline will most likely continue, and population aging lies mainly in the future even for countries like Japan that are farthest along this path. The transition transforms the demography of societies from many children and few elderly to few children and many elderly; from short life to long; from life-long demands on women to raise young children to the concentration of these demands in a small part of adulthood; from horizontally rich kin