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Multi-Page.Pdf WDP-107 Public Disclosure Authorized IiILI uI WorldBank Discussion Papers Kenya at the Public Disclosure Authorized Demograph'ic Turning Point? Hypotheses and a Proposed Public Disclosure Authorized Research Agenda Allen C. Kelley Charles E. Nobbe Public Disclosure Authorized E w4 Recent World Bank Discussion Papers No. 51 VocationalEducation and Training:A Review of WorldBank Investment.John Middleton and Terry Demsky No 52 The Market-BasedMenu Approachin Action: The 1988 Brazil FinancingPackage. Ruben Lamdany No. 53 Pathwaysto Change:Improving the Quality of Educationin DevelopingCountries. Adriaan Verspoor No. 54 EducationManagersfor Business and Government.Samuel Paul, Jacob Levitsky, andJohn C. Ickis No. 55 Subsidiesand CountervailingMeasures: Critical Issuesfor the UruguayRound. Bela Balassa,editor No. 56 ManagingPublic Expenditure: An EvolvingWorld Bank Perspective.Robert M. Lacey No. 57 The Managementof CommonProperty Natural Resources. Daniel W. 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To present these resultswith the least possible delay, the typescript of this paper has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibilityfor errors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliatedorganizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibilitywhatsoever for any consequence of their use. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designationsand presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates,or its Board or member countries concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of the authorities thereof or concerning the deiniitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to Director, Publications Department, at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give pemuissionpromptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Pernmissionto photocopy portions for classroomuse is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical tide list (with fill ordering information) and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is availablefree of charge from the Publications SalesUnit, Department F, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. ISSN: 0259-210X Allen C. Kelley is James B. Duke professor of economics at Duke University; Charles E. Nobbe is a population and health specialistwith the Canadian International Development Agency; both are consultants to the World Bank. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kelley, Allen C. Kenya at the demographicturning point? : hypotheses and a proposed research agenda / Allen C. Kelley, Charles Nobbe. p. cm. -- (World Bank discussion papers ; 107) Includes bibliographicalreferences. ISBN 0-8213-1692-3 1. Kenya--Population. 2. Kenya--Populatlonpolicy. I. Nobbe, Charles, 1934- . II. InternationalBank for Reconstructionand Development. III. Title. IV. Series. HB3662.5.A3K44 1990 304.6'096762--dc2O 90-19533 CIP - iii - Preface and Acknowledgments Research for this Sector Report was undertaken in Nairobi in November 1989. The Report was largely written in eight weeks and, as such, does not represent a completed piece of basic research, but rather an agenda of hypotheses that appear to be especially relevant to the analysis of fertility and population programming in Kenya in light of the results of the recent Demographic and Health Survey. Charles Nobbe, whose background includes experience in designing and assessing MCH and family planning programs, was responsible for the description and analysis of Kenyan population policies and programs in sections 4.0 and 5.52. Allen C. Kelley, an economic-demographer, drafted the rest of the paper. Overlaying this division of responsibilities was vigorous and constructive debate that conditioned all aspects of the study. The thematic orientation of this Report, and its initiation and encouragement, was provided by Dr. V. Jagdish. His confidence in us by providing a free hand to develop our ideas and recommendations as we saw fit is especially appreciated. The facilities and support of the National Council for Population and Development in Nairobi, and in particular the cooperation and assistance of Simon W. Ndirangu, Director, and Walter Obungu and Paul M. Kizito, are gratefully acknowledged. Ms. Ruth Kagia of the World Bank-Nairobi was especially helpful in providing data and ideas relating to Kenyan education trends and costs--a key theme in our analysis. Dr. Ann Way of the Institute for Resource Development provided us special statistical tabulations on the DHS, and Dr. Annie Cross of IRD was helpful in interpreting some aspects of the household survey. Data on population programs have been generously compiled and supplied by Dr. David Oot and Ms. Laura Slobey, USAID/Nairobi; Mr. Linus Ettyang and Ms. Rose Mosongo, NCPD/Nairobi; and Ms. Caroline Blair, UNFPA/Nairobi. Ms. Irene Muranguri and Mr. Peter Nunda at the Family Health Divison, Ministry of Health, renedered valuable assistance in compiling financial and manpower statistics. Helpful feedback on various drafts was provided by Martha Ainsworth, Christine Allison, Jill Armstrong, Nick Barnett, Susan Cochran, Althea Hill, and Dennis Mahar. ACK and CN 5-23-90 -v - TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Executive Summary ix 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 Population Trends 4 3.0 Economic Trends 7 3.1 Overview and Comparative Analysis: The Long 7 Run 3.2 Variability and Vulnerability: The Short Run 10 4.0 Population Policies and Programs: 1965-1989 14 4.1 Introduction 14 4.2 Kenyan Commitments: Political and 14 Programmatic 4.3 Financial Resources: Foreign and Local 21 Expenditures for Population Activities 4.4 Human and Physical Resources: Trained 23 Personnel, Service Delivery Points, and Contraceptive Supplies 5.0 A "Turning Point" (?) in Kenyan Demographic 27 History: Documentation,
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