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France Grant Thornton International Business Report 2014 Focus On: France Focus on: France Grant Thornton International Business Report 2014 Focus on: France 300 business Introduction interviews France is an advanced economy of more than 65m people. In 2012, its GDP was approximately US$2.6 trillion, making it the fifth largest economy in the world and the second largest in the eurozone behind Germany. Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for the economy, including the expectations of 300 business leaders interviewed in France, and more than 12,500 globally, over the past 12 months. Jean-Jacques Pichon Grant Thornton France US$2.6trn Partner gross domestic product T +33 (0) 3 81 88 39 87 E [email protected] W www.grant-thornton.fr 65 million inhabitants Focus on: France 2 Focus on: France Economy Economy outlook remains delicately The economy of France continues to suffer as the eurozone crisis Main destinations of exports balanced continues. Following a deep contraction in 2009, the economy recovered robustly, posting seven consecutive quarters of expansion. 15% 18% Germany 12.0% 16.0% However, France has stagnated over the past two years as problems in southern 9% Belgium-Luxembourg 6.1% Europe intensified, with growth slowing as unemployment and government debt rise. Italy 9% Other economies in the eurozone, namely Germany, Belgium, Italy and Spain6.0% are key 55% Spain 51% 15.0% 8% trade partners; principal exports include cars and aircraft. Business leaders remain5.9% United Kingdom 8% relatively downbeat about growth prospects, but sentiment64.9% has broadly improved 53.9% 7% Other 5.1% 6.3% 8% over the past 12 months. 7% 4.5% 7% 4.3% Key indicators 4.0 4.0 3.5 • the economy contracted by 0.1% in • in the year to October 2013, exports Main origins of imports Q3-2013, down from growth of 0.5% fell by 2% to eurozone and 1.4% 3.5 3.0 in the previous quarter to non-eurozone countries, although 15% 3.0 2.5 • fixed investment declined by 0.6% the trade deficit declined to €5.8bn 18% in the third quarter, bringing the in October from a monthly average 2.5 Germany 2.0 12.0% cumulative decline over the past of €6.9bn 9% 16.0% Belgium-Luxembourg 6.1% 2.0 9% Italy 1.5 seven quarters to 4.9%, wiping out • construction activity55% declined by 51% most of the gains made in 2010-11 4.0% in the third quarter from6.0% the 8% 1.5 China 15.0% 8% 1.0 • exports contracted by 1.5% in Q3, previous three-month period, 5.9%while Spain 7% 1.0 0.5 while imports increased by 1% industrial production64.9% fell by 1.3% 53.9% 8% Other 5.1% 7% 6.3% 0.5 7% 0.0 4.5% 4.3%0.0 -0.5 Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity (2013) -0.5 4.0 -1.0 -1.0 4.0 3.5 -1.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -1.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3.5 3.0 Focus on: France 3 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -1.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Focus on: France Economic outlook The French economy is expected to have grown by just 0.1% in 2013, General government net debt (% GDP) compared with 0.5% in Germany and 1.5% in the United Kingdom. 144 However, expansion of 0.7% is expected in 2014, rising to 1.4% in 2015 as external conditions improve. Following a decline of 2.5% in 2013, 110 improving sentiment should see investment activity move into positive 95 89 91 territory again with expansion of 0.9% forecast in 2014, accelerating to 2.4% in 2015. 48 Exports are expected to rise from just Aside from efforts to consolidate public 0.3% growth in 2013, to 2.8% in 2014 finances and high labour costs dampening Japan Italy United Kingdom and 3.6% a year later. Large deficits on the competiveness of French firms, France the merchandise trade balance are likely is also grappling with an unemployment to persist but the current account deficit rate touching 11%. Rates in troubled 89 89 88 is expected to remain steady at around southern European economies such as 2% of GDP owing to large surpluses Italy and Spain are higher but even as the 62 52 on the services and income balances. economic outlook improves in France, Efforts to meet the European only minor improvements are expected 31 Commission budget deficit targets are now with the proportion out of work not unlikely to be reached before 2015, with a falling below 10% until 2017. Spain France United States budget balance of -3.7% expected for 2014. Net government debt is expected to peak 53 at 89% of GDP in 2015, up from 62% in 50 2008. President Hollande recently 39 announced a series of measures including a 22 €30bn cut in payroll taxes to boost both job creation and the economic recovery. 0.1% Germany Canada forecast growth in 2013 Source: International Monetary Fund (2013) 2008 0.7% 2015 forecast growth in 2014 Focus on: France 4 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 80 Focus on:70 France 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 Business-10 growth prospects -20 French business leaders are the most pessimistic in the world heading into 2014; net -38% 0 However, taking 2013 as a whole, the situation for French businesses has improved. express optimism about the year ahead (meaning the majority are pessimistic, as they have On average over the course of 2013, net 17% expected to increase revenues, compared been for the past ten quarters consecutively). This comes as developed economy peers such -10with just 9% in 2012. Profitability expectations were also up on an average annual basis as Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are surfing a wave of renewed optimism. from just 5% in 2012 to 16% in 2013. This lack of confidence in the economic outlook feeds into business leaders’ own Investment plans also remain fairly robust, pointing to improved longer-term growth growth prospects. Just net 8% of French business leaders expect their profits to grow -20prospects. Net 25% of business leaders expect to invest in plant and machinery over the over the next 12 months, behind Italy (10%) and Thailand (16%) and the lowest in the next 12 months, up from 19% in Q3 although well below the eurozone average (34%). 45-economy survey. Similarly profitability expectations fell to -4% in Q4, down from -30 30% in Q3 and level with Argentina and Italy as the least positive in this regard. -40 Net percentage of businesses optimistic -50Net percentage of French businesses expecting for their economy (next 12 months) an increaseQ1-12 Q2-12(next 12Q3-12 months)Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 10 net 8% 30 25% expect 25 0 planning profits to 20 to increase -10 rise in 2014 investment 15 -20 10 -30 5 -40 0 -50 France -5 Revenues Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 eurozone Profits 30 Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2013 Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2013 25 20 15 Focus on: France 5 10 5 0 -5 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Focus on: France Business growth constraints Continuing economic uncertainty, driven by the ongoing eurozone crisis Percentage of businesses citing factor as a constraint on growth and the actions of a deeply unpopular president, is the top growth concern cited by business leaders in France. 64% businesses cite uncertainty as a constraint on their 2014 expansion prospects, up from 46% in the previous quarter. This is above the eurozone average (44%) and even above levels in troubled southern Europe (59%). 64 44 43 36 Regulations and red tape is cited by more Rising energy costs are a concern for than two in five business leaders as a 29% of businesses in France. However, Economic uncertainty Regulations & red tape constraint on their ability to grow their this is below the eurozone average which operations; at 43%, this is well above the is driven up by Germany (36%) where eurozone average (36%). On average, this the government moved to phase out constraint has climbed for the past three nuclear power following the Fukushima years consecutively, from 33% in 2011 disaster in Japan. 29 34 to 37% in 2012 to 39% in 2013, and is With unemployment in double figures, 25 30 now close to double pre-crisis levels business leaders in France are also (24% in 2008). comparatively untroubled by a lack Rising energy costs Shortage of orders A shortage of orders has affected more of skilled workers (16%). than a third of businesses in France over the past 12 months, but this dropped to 21 a quarter in Q4-2013 and the annual 25 16 average has now declined for the past economic 21 five years from a peak of 58% in 2009. uncertainty Shortage of finance Lack of skilled workers constraining Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2013 France growth eurozone plans bureaucracy remains a challenge Focus on: France 6 Focus on: France A split at the heart of Europe France and Germany sit together at the heart of Europe, at first as the architects of a project that looked to unite a continent ravaged by war, and now as its two largest economies.
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