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East African Breweries Limited Watch Your Limit March 2016

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East African Breweries Limited Watch Your Limit March 2016 Your vision... Our mission EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LIMITED WATCH YOUR LIMIT MARCH 2016 Analyst: Stephanie Kimani [email protected] Direct Line: +254711047125 AIB CAPITAL – EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LIMITED: Initiation Coverage Report 1 contents 3 Valuation Highlights 4 Global and African Alcohol Industry Trends 7 Company Description 8 Financial Review 12 Investment Case 13 Valuation and Forecasts AIB CAPITAL – EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LIMITED: Initiation Coverage Report 2 Valuation Highlights Bloomberg Code EABL KN EQUITY We initiate our coverage on EABL with a SELL recom- Price (05th February 2016) Ksh 268 mendation on a target price of Ksh 214.34 (being an Target Price Ksh 214.34 average of the DCF valuation price Ksh 198.56 and Potential Downside 20.02% the EV/EBITDA valuation price of Ksh 230.12). This target price reflects a 20.02% downside from its cur- 52 week range (Ksh) 355.00 - 245.00 rent price of Ksh 268 (05th February 2016). Market Cap 74,600,000 Shares outstanding (“mns”) 790.774 Financial Year End 30th June Our recommendation is based on: Focus powered by strategy: EABLs primary focus is in the East African markets where it con- tinues to grow and relentlessly gain market share. With an aver- Continued growth in the Kenyan market: age gross profit margin of 48.69%, a shift in consumer tastes Kenya is EABLs largest market currently contributing 67% to total towards the more profitable spirits portfolio as seen by the fi- sales revenue. With the boost in its lower end beer portfolio from nancial results for the first half of 2016 that saw its reserve and the rise in Senator Keg sales following the removal of excise mainstream segments grow at impressive double digits and a tax, increased demand for more premium beers and the shift in rise in aspirational drinking – EABL has an opportunity to ex- consumer sophistication towards the spirits portfolio – we expect ploit these dynamic developments and boost sales revenue. We that sales revenue growth in Kenyan will average at 14% with estimate future sales revenue CAGR to stand at 7.72% up from the market increasing its contribution to total sales revenue to the past 7.49% for a 5 year period. The driver of this growth 69%. The Kenyan economy is expected to grow between 5.8% will be based on shifts in the product mix from the beer to spirits and 6% in 2016 while in 2015 it attained lower middle class portfolio. We expect that the spirits portfolio will sustain revenue income status following an expansion of its GDP by 25%. We growth and therefore maintain a stable sales revenue growth expect that these factors will be paramount in retaining Kenya’s going forward. market leader status in EABL. Over and above this, EABL has continued to aggressively market its products and seek market share as it meets consumer demand Disruptions in key markets: and expands its portfolio to meet the ever changing needs of South Sudan has always presented a great growth potential for the consumer. EABL, but with the political unrest that has faced the country for the past 3 years, EABL has found it difficult to operate due to the Continued growth in global alcohol markets fueled by lack of hard US dollar currency which remains the main trade emerging markets: currency for the company. Due to this, its most popular brand With a 1 billion liter increase in the amount of alcohol consumed Tusker Lager has experienced a continued decline in sales vol- in 2014 (The Economist, June 2015), there is no wonder why the umes as it continues to be the most popular beer brand in South alcoholic industry is a $1.2 billion global industry (P&S Market Sudan. Research, 2015). Even with an average decline in alcohol con- sumption in developed countries, the industry reigns supreme Uganda and Tanzania continue to face economic slowdowns that with massive opportunities in emerging markets such as Af- have affected consumer purchasing power. The Ugandan market rica. On the back of emerging markets as a final frontier, the is experiencing polarization while the Tanzanian market contin- global alcohol industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of ues to be a difficult market for EABL to work in due to restrictions 3.2% between 2015 and 2020 to a whopping $1.451 bil- from the Fair Competition Commission (FCC) on the purchase of lion industry (P&S Market Research, 2015). This is mainly Serengeti Breweries Limited (SBL). attributed to a relentless and inevitable growing young population, increasing urbanization, positive demo- graphic developments and higher disposable in- comes that are set to improve the market potential. AIB CAPITAL – EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LIMITED: Initiation Coverage Report 3 Global Alcohol Industry Trends Global alcohol consumption volumes buoyed by growth in emerging markets: There has been a change in the tastes of consumers as they choose In 2014, approximately 249 billion liters of alcohol (The Econo- to consume flavored alcoholic drinks as opposed to bitter and mist, 2015) was consumed globally which translates to a 1 bil- strong alcoholic drinks. This has further promoted growth in the lion increase from the year 2013. However, it can be noted industry through the rise of flavored alcoholic drinks especially that global alcohol consumption per head has actually declined in the Vodka brand RTD segments. Notably in the beer portfolio, from 56.6 liters in 2012 to 55.4 liters in 2014 duly caused by consumers are moving towards more innovatively brewed beers less alcohol drinking in developed markets but this has been increasing the popularity of craft beers that tend to have a bet- buoyed by increased drinking in emerging markets. One such ter taste and have undergone better brewing techniques emerging market is that of Africa which has increasingly be- come an attractive final frontier for the global alcohol industry. This is mainly attributed to a relentless and inevitable growing Millennials to drive alcohol demand: young population, increasing urbanization, positive demograph- Millennial consumers are estimated (UN 2014) to account for ic developments and higher disposable incomes that are set to 1.8 billion out of the 7 billion of the global population. Close to improve the market potential. This does not beg to question one-third of the millennials live in emerging markets reaffirming the race these alcohol producing companies are in to get into the position of these consumers as the most influential consumers emerging markets. who will drive the consumer goods market. These consumers can be viewed as alpha influencers who are particularly capricious and fickle on product choice and demand more in terms of quality especially from premium brands. This can be seen by the influence that the craft boom has had on mainstream beers and spirits. These consumers are moving to- wards more innovatively produced alcoholic drinks and want to be part of the ‘story’ behind the brands they consume. This has caused alcohol producers to focus their marketing strategies in favor of ‘telling stories’ and having activations that bring the brand closer to the consumer. Source: The Economist Convergence in alcohol consumption trend: Taking a look at the OECD member countries, which currently account for 63% of global GDP and 18% of global population, there appears to be a convergence in the consumption of alco- hol coming down from very high averages in the 1960s. This is directly related to the ‘drink less, drink better’ initiative that was started by the OECD countries whose member alcohol produc- ing companies adopted so as to encourage responsible drinking. Focus on provenance and aspirational drinkers: Source: UN The global alcohol industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% between 2015 and 2020 to a whopping $1,451 billion industry. This growth is favored by increased population growth together with a growth in middle class incomes. As consumers have a higher disposable income, they tend to have an increased sophistication in the alcoholic brands they choose this therefore leads to an increase in the sale of reserve and premium alcoholic brands. In the case of EABL, its premium and reserve segments have gained popularity in their markets and have continues to provide an average positive growth over the past 3 years. AIB CAPITAL – EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LIMITED: Initiation Coverage Report 4 Change in consumer behavior: Even though premiumization is one of the key drivers influenc- ing the alcohol industry, there has been a great focus on how well alcoholic brands connect with an increasingly educated con- sumer class. Going forward, it has been increasingly important to manufacture more palatable alcoholic drinks and offer lower alcohol offerings that could represent a potentially significant up trade potential for younger adults especially in the promotion of moderation of alcohol consumption. African Industry Analysis Africa is the fastest growing consumer market: Large multinationals such as Diageo, Heineken, SABMiller and Alcohol per capita consumption on the rise: Castle have acquired significant stakes in African brewers and According to WHO latest information on alcohol prevalence, have assisted in facilitating operational efficiency and improved Kenya, Ethiopia and Eriteria fall below the average African alco- corporate governance. According the UN 2015 estimates hol prevalence rate while Uganda and Tanzania continue to sur- (World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings pass the average. This continues to be a reason why EABL chooses and Advance Tables), Africa has the highest population growth to focus on gaining market share. A new World Bank report ex- rate, growing at a rate of 2.55% annually between 2010 – pects that with a slow decline in fertility in Africa would lead to 2015. Based on the 2.4 billion people projected to be added to a growing young population with the region being a much larger the global population between 2015 and 2030, 1.3 billion will part of the world population.
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