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An Investigation of the Effects of Barley Cultivation On © COPYRIGHT by Cleo Roberts 2013 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED BREWING SUCCESS: AN INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF BARLEY CULTIVATION ON SMALL HOLDER FARMERS IN EASTERN UGANDA BY Cleo Roberts ABSTRACT As Nile Breweries and Uganda Breweries have begun purchasing barley from Ugandan farmers, they have insisted that their sales support economic development in the country. While these breweries' competition for raw materials has the potential to provide smallholder barley farmers with increased income and access to credit, it may also encourage alcohol consumption and exacerbate environmental degradation. This paper explores whether and in what ways barley farmers in Kapchorwa, Bukwa, and Kween Districts, in eastern Uganda, benefit from selling their produce to Nile Breweries and Uganda Breweries. It pays particular attention to the breweries' intended effects on respondents' incomes, expenditures, and access to credit, as well as the potential unintended consequences of barley production on respondents' alcohol consumption and environmental stewardship. The author relies both on narratives and on econometric analysis to draw conclusions about the effect of breweries' demand for raw materials on domestic small-holders. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Infinite thanks to Peter Redvers-Lee and Kenneth Muhinda, without whose invaluable assistance and guidance this study could not have taken place; to Gavin Van Wijk, who provided access to essential contacts and information; to George Mbogo and Joseph Kalule who facilitated travel to and research in various regions of Uganda; to Peter Cherwaru and David Kissa for giving me access to their staffs; to Harriet Ajulu, Joseph Araptai, Sarah Chelangat, Bosco Chelimo, Samuel Cheptoek, Stella Cheptum, Scovia Cherotich, Roselyn Cherukut, Eunice Chesang, Joseph Cheshari, Maxwel Kwemboi, David Labu, Martin Mutai, Tonny Ndiwa, Paul Sukuku, Doreen Yapmongusho, Caroline Yesho, for their tireless efforts on my behalf; to Geoffrey Ngobi, Moses Musisi, Alfred Balikagira, James Okiror, and Onapito Ekomoloit for taking time out of their hectic schedules for interviews; to Kenneth Twoyem and Dismas Sande; to Vincent Kamba, Faustino Kavule, Michael Betonde, whose advice is much appreciated; to Louis Goodman, Maria Floro, Amos Golan, and Heath Henderson for helpful comments; and to every person who took time out of his or her day to answer my very long survey, without which this paper would have little evidence about barley farmers in Uganda. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................ v LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ............................................................................................................ vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 A REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT LITERATURE ....................................................... 3 CHAPTER 3 POLITICS, GEOGRAPHY, AND CULTURE OF THE SABINY ................................. 27 CHAPTER 4 BARLEY AND BREWING IN UGANDA .................................................................. 42 CHAPTER 5 DATA COLLECTION, EMPIRICAL METHODS AND RESULTS ............................. 54 CHAPTER 6 QUALITATIVE FINDINGS ABOUT BARLEY CULTIVATION IN EASTERN UGANDA ..................................................................................................................................... 117 CHAPTER 7 DISCUSSION OF BARLEY CULTIVATION ON MOUNT ELGON ......................... 123 CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 130 APPENDIX A FARMER LIVELIHOOD SURVEY ........................................................................ 138 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 150 iv LIST OF TABLES Table Table 1: Per Capita Monthly Household Income ................................................................................... 66 Table 2: Per Capita Monthly Household Expenditures ....................................................................... 66 Table 3: Individual Access to Credit ........................................................................................................... 67 Table 4: Household Experience with Environmental Degradation ................................................ 68 Table 5: Household Use of Inorganic Fertilizer ...................................................................................... 69 Table 6: Household Use of Organic Fertilizer ......................................................................................... 69 Table 7: Individual Alcohol Consumption ................................................................................................ 70 Table 8: Gender Among Respondents, on Mount Elgon, and in Uganda ...................................... 79 Table 9: Respondents’ Marital Status ......................................................................................................... 79 Table 10: Individual Educational Achievement ..................................................................................... 81 Table 11: Education Attainment of the Most Educated Person in the Household .................... 82 Table 12: Respondents' Self-Wealth Rankings ....................................................................................... 83 Table 13: Household Water Access ............................................................................................................. 84 Table 14: Farm Ownership ............................................................................................................................. 85 Table 15: Land Sharing .................................................................................................................................... 86 Table 16: Agricultural Association Membership ................................................................................... 86 Table 17: Household Consumption Decisions ........................................................................................ 87 Table 18: Household Purchase Decisions ................................................................................................. 87 Table 19: Household Agricultural Proceeds Decisions ....................................................................... 88 Table 20: Household Growing Decisions .................................................................................................. 88 Table 21: Variables Used to Construct the Propensity Score (X-variables) ................................ 89 Table 22: Differences in Indicator Means Between Barley Sellers and Non-sellers….............91 Table 23: Estimation of Propensity Score for Selling Barley ............................................................ 92 v Table 24: Differences in Indicator Means between Nile Breweries Sellers and All Others .. 94 Table 25: Estimation of Propensity Score for Selling Barley to Nile Breweries ........................ 95 Table 26: Estimated Differences in Indicator Means Between Nile Breweries Sellers and Others, Based on Three Propensity Score Matching Methods ........................................... 98 Table 27: Differences in Indicator Means between Uganda Breweries Sellers and Others .. 99 Table 28: Estimation of Propensity Score for Selling Barley to Uganda Breweries ............... 101 Table 29: Estimated Differences in Indicator Means Between Uganda Breweries Sellers and Others, Based on Three Propensity Score Matching Methods ......................................... 104 Table 30: Differences in Indicator Means between Nile Breweries Sellers Uganda Breweries Sellers ..................................................................................................................................................... 105 Table 31: Estimation of Propensity Score for Selling Barley to Uganda Breweries Rather than Nile Breweries .......................................................................................................................... 107 Table 32: Estimated Differences in Indicator Means Between Nile Breweries Sellers and Uganda Breweries, Based on Three Propensity Score Matching Methods.................. 109 Table 33: Differences in Indicator Means between Farmers Who Sell Barley to Both Breweries and Those Who Sell Barley to Only One Brewery ........................................... 111 Table 34: Estimation of Propensity Score for Selling Barley to Both Breweries Rather than One ........................................................................................................................................................... 113 Table 35: Estimated Differences in Indicator Means Between Sellers to Both Breweries and Sellers to Only One Brewery, Based on Three Propensity Score Matching Methods ................................................................................................................................................................... 116 vi LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Illustration Figure 1: Uganda Exports...............................................................................................................................
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