BLIZZARD RISK, PERCEPTION, AND PREPAREDNESS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS By KEELEY S. HEISE Bachelor of Science in Meteorology/Climatology University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln, Nebraska 2006 Master of Science in Geography Oklahoma State University Stillwater, Oklahoma 2013 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May, 2017 BLIZZARD RISK, PERCEPTION, AND PREPAREDNESS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS Dissertation Approved: Dr. Stephen J. Stadler Dissertation Adviser Dr. Brad A. Bays Dr. Thomas A. Wikle Dr. Duane A. Gill ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my committee for all their support and guidance throughout this process. I would also like to thank the people who provided information that I was able to use as part of my research. Finally, I would like to say a big thank you to all of my family and friends who provided love and support while I was working on this, especially Nick, Kim, Thomas, Tom, Brian, and Dakota, all of whom provided an ear and were always more than willing to answer questions or give feedback while also going through this process. I could not have done it without any of you. iii Acknowledgements reflect the views of the author and are not endorsed by committee members or Oklahoma State University. Name: KEELEY S. HEISE Date of Degree: MAY, 2017 Title of Study: BLIZZARD RISK, PERCEPTION, AND PREPAREDNESS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS Major Field: GEOGRAPHY Abstract: With extreme weather events expected to increase as the planet warms, weather disasters and society’s vulnerability to them are becoming more frequently studied. One of the weather hazards of most concern in the north-central United States is the blizzard. Blizzards are among the deadliest and costliest events in the United States, and the Northern Great Plains experience these events more frequently than anywhere else in the US. The purpose of the research presented in this dissertation is to apply existing knowledge to a hazard that is underrepresented in the literature. Previous studies on blizzards have mainly focused on climatological data, and the few that did include information on perception and preparedness did so using only quantitative survey questions, which do not allow the survey respondent to expand on their view points. For vulnerability analyses, much of the research is done at the county level though the research consistently argues that vulnerability is a more localized phenomenon. It may be better understood and provide more efficient resource allocation if studies are done at smaller geographic levels, such as the Census tract. Data for the snow seasons of 1950/51 through 2010/11 were used to determine the areas in the Northern Plains had highest exposure as well as which time of year is the most likely to experience blizzards. According to the seasonal exposure analysis, South Dakota experienced the most blizzards. The months of March and April combined (termed late-season) exhibited the highest exposure with the month of March showing the highest overall. Throughout the study period, a significant decreasing trend in the number of storms was observed. Multiple indices were calculated and compared at the tract level for one county within the study area, and surveys were also distributed to ascertain perception and preparedness in the two most active states using both open-ended and closed-ended questions. Through the use of surveys, it was found that the residents of North and South Dakota know what a blizzard entails and are highly prepared for such a storm. Little demographic difference was found in the open-ended questions, and this may be due to their experience with blizzards. Tract level analysis was done using a method previously published and created for county-level analysis by Miller, Johnson, and Dobson. Using variables from the 2010 U.S. Census and the 2008-2012 5-year American Community Survey, social vulnerability and resilience indices were calculated for the tracts of Cass County, North Dakota and then combined into quadrants. Three difference indices were calculated by switching the index in which the heating variables were included. Only three Census tracts changed: one in Fargo, and two larger rural tracts in the northern and western parts of the county. This suggests that the use of gas versus electric heat does not have much of an impact on blizzard vulnerability or resilience, except for those residents that live in more remote locations. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH .................................................................1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................1 Research Questions ..................................................................................................3 Literature ..................................................................................................................6 Significance and Importance..................................................................................16 References ..............................................................................................................19 II. BLIZZARD EXPOSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS USING DAILY WEATHER MAPS ................................................................................................25 Authorship and Journals ........................................................................................25 Abstract ..................................................................................................................26 Introduction ............................................................................................................26 Methods and Data ..................................................................................................33 Results ....................................................................................................................36 Total Exposure .................................................................................................36 Seasonal versus Non-seasonal Exposure .........................................................38 Discussion ..............................................................................................................39 Conclusions ............................................................................................................44 Appendices .............................................................................................................47 References ..............................................................................................................53 Tables .....................................................................................................................57 Figure Caption List ................................................................................................58 Figures....................................................................................................................59 III. BLIZZARD PERCEPTION AND PREPAREDNESS: A CASE STUDY OF THE DAKOTAS ............................................................................................................64 Authorship and Journals ........................................................................................64 Abstract ..................................................................................................................65 Introduction ............................................................................................................66 Methods and Data ..................................................................................................72 Results ....................................................................................................................75 Defining Blizzard .............................................................................................76 Experiences ......................................................................................................78 Community Leaders .........................................................................................79 Preparing for a Watch versus a Warning .........................................................81 v Chapter Page Preparation by Ranchers and Farmers .............................................................83 Discussion and Conclusions ..................................................................................84 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................91 Appendix ................................................................................................................91 References ..............................................................................................................96 Tables ...................................................................................................................100 Figure Caption List ..............................................................................................102 Figures..................................................................................................................104 IV. TRACT LEVEL ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL VULNERABILITY & RESILIENCE TO BLIZZARDS: A CASE STUDY OF CASS COUNTY, NORTH DAKOTA ....111 Authorship and Journals ......................................................................................111