SECTOR BRIEFING number DBS Asian Insights DBS Group27 Research • July 2016 Oversupply in the Global Steel Sector Challenges and Opportunities DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 27 02 Oversupply in the Global Steel Sector Challenges and Opportunities Eun Young Lee Equity Analyst DBS Group Research
[email protected] Addison Dai Equity Analyst DBS Vickers Securities (Hong Kong)
[email protected] Produced by: Asian Insights Office • DBS Group Research go.dbs.com/research @dbsinsights
[email protected] Chien Yen Goh Editor-in-Chief Jean Chua Managing Editor Geraldine Tan Editor Martin Tacchi Art Director DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 27 03 05 Executive Summary Macro Outlook Challenges and Opportunities 09 Outlook for Steel Sector Supply and Demand Price Forecasts for Steel and Raw Materials Efficiency and Cost Analysis of Chinese Steel Mills World Steel Trade Flows Trade Conflicts on the Rise 24 Sifting Out Winners in Steel Sector Growing M&A Deals Post-Depression 30 Risks Abound in Current Landscape High Mortality Rate for Major Steel Companies Bumpy Road Ahead for China’s Steel Sector Reforms Pain of Rising Interest Rates 34 Findings From DBS Steel Survey 38 Appendix DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 27 04 DBS Asian Insights SECTOR BRIEFING 27 05 Executive Summary Macro Outlook Demand outlook: Demand is stagnant. Since 1950, crude steel production has been growing 3.4% annually from 188 million tons to 1.62 billion tons in 2015. The sector experienced strong growth from 1950 to 1975; stagnancy from 1975 to 2000; and astronomical expansion led by strong demand growth in China from 2000 to 2014.