The Importance of Vector Abundance and Seasonality
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TECHNICAL REPORT The importance of vector abundance and seasonality www.ecdc.europa.eu ECDC TECHNICAL REPORT The importance of vector abundance and seasonality Results from an expert consultation This report by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) was coordinated by Céline Gossner, and written and produced by the following contributors: G.R.W Wint (ERGO, Oxford), B. Alten (Hacettepe University, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey), T. Balenghien (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), E. Berriauta (University of Murcia, Spain), M. Braks (RIVM, Netherlands), J Medlock (Public Health England, Salisbury, UK), D. Petric (University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia), F. Schaffner (Francis Schaffner Consultancy, Riehen, Switzerland), S. Dhollander (EFSA, Parma, Italy), C.M. Gossner (ECDC, Stockholm, Sweden), O.J.T. Briët (ECDC, Stockholm, Sweden), E. Ducheyne (Avia-GIS, Zoersel, Belgium) This report was a deliverable in a contract that was awarded by ECDC to VectorNet; contract title: Specific Contract No. 4 – ECD. 7499 in the framework of VectorNet project 2014–2018; contract number: OC/EFSA/AHAW/2013/02- FWC1; report on the relevance of seasonality and abundance of vectors. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to the entire VectorNet community for working hard during four years to collect the data and for sharing the knowledge upon which this document is based. We are also grateful for the support of the team at Avia-GIS for providing the organisation and perspective that underpinned the whole VectorNet project. The authors drew on the expertise of many colleagues in the VectorNet project, including Agustin Estrada Pena, Zati Vatansever, Thomas Jaenson, Zdenek Hubalek, Kayleigh Hansford, Alexander Vaux, Petr Volf, Vladimir Ivovic, Vit Dvorak, René Bødker, Simon Carpenter, Isabel Pereira da Fonseca, Marta Verdun Castello, Vincent Robert and Helge Kampen. Thanks are also due to Céline M. Gossner at ECDC and Sofie Dhollander at EFSA for their guidance and encouragement. Suggested citation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and European Food Safety Authority. The importance of vector abundance and seasonality – Results from an expert consultation. Stockholm and Parma: ECDC and EFSA; 2018. Stockholm and Parma, November 2018 ISBN 978-92-9498-271-1 DOI 10.2900/37171 Catalogue number TQ-06-18-175-EN-N Cover photo: USDA, Scott Bauer, Creative Commons attribution non-commercial (CC BY 2.0) license via Flickr © European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2018 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged ii TECHNICAL REPORT The importance of vector abundance and seasonality Contents Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................... iv Glossary ....................................................................................................................................................... iv Executive summary ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Types of measures of abundance and seasonality ............................................................................................. 2 Using abundance and seasonality data ................................................................................................... 3 Methods ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Vector-related parameters ......................................................................................................................... 4 Epidemiological concepts ........................................................................................................................... 4 Results and discussion .................................................................................................................................... 5 Assessment of the importance of abundance and seasonality ........................................................................ 5 Availability of abundance and seasonality data in the VectorNet database ...................................................... 9 Requirements for abundance and seasonality assessments ......................................................................... 12 Field sampling ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Overview of sampling strategies .................................................................................................................... 13 Ticks...................................................................................................................................................... 13 Culicoides .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Mosquitoes ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Sandflies ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Spatial modelling of vector abundance and seasonality .................................................................................... 15 Mechanistic models ................................................................................................................................. 15 Stochastic models ................................................................................................................................... 16 Conclusions and potential implications ...................................................................................................... 18 References .................................................................................................................................................. 20 Appendix 1. Vector groups ............................................................................................................................ 26 Appendix 2. Overview of sampling methods ................................................................................................... 42 Figures Figure 1. Locations with abundance values derived from standardised sampling of active vectors, VectorNet database, as of March 2018 .......................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2. Comparison of values extracted from spatially predicted surfaces of maximum abundance with ranked normalised abundance category for Culicoides imicola (top) and probability of presence of C. dewulfi (bottom) .... 17 Tables Table 1A. Summary of expert opinion of vector-related drivers of epidemiological concepts .................................. 6 Table 1B. Summary of expert opinion of vector-related drivers of epidemiological concepts .................................. 7 Table 2. Sum of normalised scores by epidemiological concept .......................................................................... 9 Table 3. Sum of normalised scores by epidemiological concept and vector group ................................................. 9 Table A1. Expert opinion of vector-related drivers of epidemiological concepts: ticks .......................................... 26 Table A1, continued ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Table A2. Expert opinion of vector-related drivers of epidemiological concepts: midges ...................................... 29 Table A2, continued ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Table A3. Expert opinion of vector-related drivers of epidemiological concepts: mosquitoes ................................ 35 Table A3, continued ..................................................................................................................................... 36 Table A4. Expert opinion of vector-related drivers of epidemiological concepts: sandflies .................................... 37 Table A4, continued ..................................................................................................................................... 39 Table A5. Expert scores of importance of drivers of epidemiological concepts .................................................... 41 iii The importance of vector abundance and seasonality TECHNICAL REPORT Abbreviations AHSV African horse sickness virus BTV Bluetongue virus CCHFV Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus CO2 Carbon dioxide ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control EEA European Economic Area EFSA European Food Safety Authority EID2 Enhanced Emerging Infectious Disease database ESA European Space Agency E–W East to west GBIF Global Biodiversity Information Facility R0 Basic reproduction number S–N South to north TBD Tick-borne disease TBEV Tick-borne encephalitis virus WNV West Nile virus WNF West Nile fever Glossary Abundance Quantity (i.e. a number of specimens