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Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region February 2021

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Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region February 2021 Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region February 2021 STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change – Edinburgh and South East Region PROJECT NAME Project No: B2356701 Document Title: STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change – Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region Revision: Final Date: 03/02/21 Jacobs UK Ltd. 95 Bothwell Street Glasgow, Scotland G2 7HX United Kingdom T +44.(0)141 243 8000 F +44 (0)141 226 3109 www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2021 Jacobs UK Limited and AECOM Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs and AECOM. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs and AECOM constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This document has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ and AECOM client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs, AECOM and the client. Jacobs and AECOM accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this document by any third party. Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change – Edinburgh and South East Region Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Background and Report Purpose .............................................................................. 1 COVID-19 Impacts .................................................................................................. 5 2. Context ....................................................................................................................... 6 Policy Context ......................................................................................................... 6 Geographical Context .............................................................................................. 9 Socio-Economic Context ........................................................................................ 12 Environmental Context ........................................................................................... 35 Transport Network ................................................................................................. 44 Context Summary .................................................................................................. 58 3. Problems & Opportunities ...................................................................................... 60 Approach to Problem & Opportunity Identification ..................................................... 60 Data Analysis ........................................................................................................ 60 Stakeholder Engagement ....................................................................................... 60 Problems .............................................................................................................. 62 Opportunities ...................................................................................................... 108 Future Conditions ................................................................................................ 114 Summary ............................................................................................................ 115 4 Transport Planning Objectives ............................................................................ 118 4.1 National and Regional Objectives ......................................................................... 118 5 Option Generation and Sifting ............................................................................. 122 5.1 Strategic Options ................................................................................................. 122 5.2 Approach ............................................................................................................ 122 5.3 Next Steps .......................................................................................................... 142 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 143 Appendix A: Report Figures ......................................................................................... 143 Appendix B: List of Reviewed Regional Policy Documents and Studies ................. 176 Appendix C: Stakeholder Engagement ........................................................................ 178 Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change – Edinburgh and South East Region List of Figures Figure 1: The 4 Key Phases to the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) ........... 1 Figure 2: Edinburgh and South East Scotland (ESES) Study Area ..................................... 3 Figure 3: ESES Region Policy Review................................................................................. 8 Figure 4: ESES Region Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification 2016 ................ 11 Figure 5: ESES Largest Settlements by Population 2016 and Population Density 2018 ... 12 Figure 6: Population Change in the Largest ESES Settlements 2012 – 2016 ................... 13 Figure 7: Industry Sectors – Edinburgh Comparison ......................................................... 15 Figure 8: Industry Sectors - ESES Region (excluding Edinburgh) Comparison ................. 16 Figure 9: Sector GVA Share in ESES Relative to Scotland (Oxford Economics, 2019) ..... 18 Figure 10: Population Density and BRES Key Employment centres within the ESES region ........................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 11: BRES Key Employment Centres and Travel to Work Distances ....................... 21 Figure 12: Broadband Connectivity .................................................................................... 23 Figure 13: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2020 .......................................... 25 Figure 14: Mode of Travel to Work .................................................................................... 27 Figure 15: Distance Travelled to Work within the ESES region ......................................... 28 Figure 16: Car Availability within ESES and within Scottish cities ..................................... 29 Figure 17: Census based Origin/Destination daily travel to work flows – Travel to the City of Edinburgh ...................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 18: Census based Origin/Destination daily travel to work flows – Travel from the City of Edinburgh ............................................................................................................... 32 Figure 19: Transport Expenditure as a proportion of household income ........................... 34 Figure 20: Environmental Designations for ESES region................................................... 36 Figure 21: Noise Mapping for ESES region ....................................................................... 38 Figure 22: Flood Mapping for the ESES region ................................................................. 39 Figure 23: Carbon and Peatland Map for ESES region ..................................................... 41 Figure 24: ESES Transport Network .................................................................................. 45 Figure 25: Core Paths by Local Authority in the ESES region ........................................... 47 Figure 26: Change in share of population using the Bus 4 or More Days a Week, 2003 to 2017 ................................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 27: Change in Rail Station Patronage 2008 to 2018 ............................................... 52 Figure 28: Park and Ride sites within the ESES region ..................................................... 54 Figure 29: ESES Region Trunk Road Network .................................................................. 57 Figure 30: Scottish Access to Bus Indicator ....................................................................... 64 Figure 31: Access to bus/rail based on service frequency ................................................. 66 Figure 32: Trunk Road AADT Volumes.............................................................................. 72 Figure 33: Road Congestion Points (Volume to capacity ratio>1) ..................................... 74 Figure 34: AM Peak Journey Times for trips by car, bus and rail to Edinburgh city centre 76 Figure 35: Housing Forecasts (TELMoS14) 2017-2037 .................................................... 80 Figure 36: Employment Forecasts (TELMoS14) 2017-2037 .............................................. 81 Figure 37: Transport Poverty 2020 .................................................................................... 84 Figure 38: Origins and Destinations of AM Peak westbound flows on the A720 ................ 86 Figure 39: Travel to Work destinations within the City of Edinburgh .................................. 88 Strategic Transport Projects Review
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