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A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape

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A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape Coordinated by: South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Cape Town. Published by: CSIR Environmentek, Stellenbosch CSIR Report No. ENV-S-C 2005-073 A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape June 2005 Midgley, G.F. Tadross, M. Chapman, R.A. Van Wilgen, B.W. Hewitson, B. Kgope, B. Johnston, P. Morant, P.D. De Wit, M. Theron, A. Ziervogel, G. Scholes, R.J. Mukheibir, P. Forsyth, G.G. Van Niekerk, L. ERC University of Cape Town The following citation should be used for this report: Midgley, G.F. 1, Chapman, R.A. 2, Hewitson, B. 3, Johnston, P. 3, de Wit, M. 4, Ziervogel, G. 3, Mukheibir, P. 5, van Niekerk, L. 2, Tadross, M. 3, van Wilgen, B.W. 2, Kgope, B. 1, Morant, P.D. 2, Theron, A. 2, Scholes, R.J. 6, Forsyth, G.G. 2 (2005) A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape. Report to the Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa. CSIR Report No. ENV-S-C 2005-073, Stellenbosch. 1. South African Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Cape Town. 2. CSIR Environmentek, Stellenbosch. 6. CSIR Environmentek, Pretoria. 3. Climate Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environment and Geographical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town. 4. de Wit Sustainable Options CC (Pty) (Ltd) 5. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town. ERC University of Cape Town ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Steven Lamberth, Marine and Coastal Management, Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, for his contributions to the section on estuaries and Anna Steynor, Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, for her assistance with the report. A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical 2005 and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The South African Country Study on Climate Cape over the past three decades. Rainfall Change, carried out in the late 1990’s, trends are not as clearly identifiable. A future identified the Northern and Western Cape that is warmer, and possibly drier, will Provinces as being most at risk from encompass a range of consequences that projected climate change-induced warming will affect the economy, the livelihoods of and rainfall change (results of this study are people and the ecological integrity of the summarized in South Africa’s initial National Western Cape region. Communication, prepared in accordance with Article 12 of the United Nations Coping with the consequences of a future Framework Convention on Climate Change: changed climate requires the identification of www.environment.gov.za/Documents/Docume the sectors that will be affected and how nts/2005Feb22/NatCom_Nov%202003%20(b). these effects will play out. This report lays doc ). out plausible scenarios for climate change and follows with an assessment of the However, this study was based on a limited impacts and vulnerabilities due to projected set of model projections of climate change changes. The next step is to decide what that have now been superseded by adaptation measures taken now will have projections using more advanced the most impact in the future in avoiding or techniques. In this study we have carried out coping with the potentially negative effects of a broad reassessment of the vulnerability of the projected climate change. The ability to the Western Cape to climate change assess these and implement them impacts, using a wider range of climate successfully will facilitate the achievement of scenarios from more sophisticated climate a sustainable future in this Province. models, and for a range of sectors (with the exception of agriculture and fisheries, Global change – scene setting according to our brief). We also identify The driving force for global climate change is some key adaptive strategies that might primarily the rise of greenhouse gas alleviate or avoid the worst impacts of concentrations in the atmosphere. Carbon climate change in some sectors. We dioxide, the principle greenhouse gas, is conclude that further detailed study of some released to the atmosphere by the burning of the implications of these findings will be of fossil fuels, deforestation and conversion necessary to explore these and further of land to agriculture. Greenhouse gases strategies in order to guide policy absorb infrared radiation emitted from the development. earth’s surface and heats the atmosphere. The world is now warmer than at any time The future climate of the Western Cape is during the past 1000 years. Empirical likely to be one that is warmer and drier than evidence for this is the retreat of glaciers at present, according to a number of current almost everywhere on the globe, rising model projections. In support of these temperatures, increased storminess and a projections, recent temperature trends constant (though globally varied) rate of sea reveal appreciable warming in the Western level rise. These changes have lead to Executive Summary Page i A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical 2005 and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape global concern and much research effort is and importation of supplies from further now being directed towards understanding afield are indicated, which may raise costs. climate evolution and possible trajectories of the earth-climate system. In a warmer and drier future, the competition for fresh water will increase sharply. The Western Cape Climate Projections equitable sharing of the water resource will Projections for the Western Cape are for a demand considerable skill. Under current drying trend from west to east, with a rates of urbanization and population growth, weakening of winter rainfall, possibly slightly new sources will almost certainly need to be more summer rainfall (mainly in the east of developed. the province), a shift to more irregular rainfall of possibly greater intensity, and rising Rivers, wetlands and estuaries mean, minimum and maximum temperatures Reduced water in the rivers will have an everywhere. impact on wetlands and estuaries. Riparian, endorheic and floodplain wetlands are Impacts and Vulnerabilities already being degraded through conversion Water resources to agricultural activities. They will face Available water in the region is already fully increased degradation through desiccation committed in most parts of the region, and as their water supply is reduced. Some there is little scope for further development Western Cape wetlands have global of the resource (such as constructing new significance for providing habitat to migratory dams). In some catchments a water deficit wading birds that breed along the Siberian exists, when the ecological reserve is coastline and the Taimyr Peninsula. South factored into the water allocation, meaning Africa, therefore, has an international too much water is already being abstracted obligation to protect its wetlands, particularly from the system in a way that threatens the those registered under the Ramsar integrity of the ecosystems that depend on Convention, which implies allocating enough this water. This is reflected in the currently water to them for their continued existence. poor state of this region’s rivers. However, demand continues to grow from agriculture, The vulnerability of estuaries to warming and the Cape Town Metropolitan Area and the drying is particularly acute because these coastal towns. The already tightening water features are located at the end of the river supply situation is vulnerable to periodic systems and are therefore the final receivers drought, as is now being experienced. of increasingly scarce water. Nevertheless, estuaries are highly productive places and Because water is already a limiting factor for serve as important nurseries for fish. They economic growth in most of the province, the have particular requirements for fresh water projected climate change has serious to maintain salinity profiles and for flushing implications for the competing interests of sediment. Estuaries are important environmental integrity and socio-economic contributors to the national economy in development. Adaptations that will be terms of fisheries alone. Special attention required are much greater efficiency in use, will be needed to maintain their ecological especially in agriculture, which implies functioning in the face of increased investment in technology and know-how. competition for water. Investment in exploring alternative sources Executive Summary Page ii A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical 2005 and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape Coastal impacts water for flushing and maintaining salinity Sea-level is already rising through the profiles, will face increased competition for expansion of the ocean, melting of glaciers water from agricultural and urban demands. and polar ice, and we are committed to up to 0.3m of further sea level rise from ocean Alien invasive species thermal expansion alone over future Little is known about how alien invasive decades, even if fossil fuel emission were to species would respond to climate change. A cease with immediate effect. The impacts of drier environment would restrict their spread sea-level rise are increased saltwater but increasing atmospheric CO2 content intrusion into coastal aquifers, flooding in (which acts as an “aerial fertilizer” for fast conjunction
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