1 INTRODUCTION 11 1.1 Project Background and Approach 12 1.2 Vulnerability Assessment Approach and Framework 13 1.3 Overview of Analysis Process 14 2 NATIONAL CONTEXT 15 2.1 Climate variability analysis 16 2.2 Socio-demographic Conditions 26 2.3 Governance and Institutional Arrangements 27 2.3.1 Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change 27 2.4 Changes in Economic Conditions 28 2.5 Land use change 32 2.6 Ecosystem Services 36 3 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT 39 3.1 Exposure 40 3.1.1 Increased climate variability 40 3.1.2 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 44 3.1.3 Sea level rise and storm surge 46 3.1.4 Flooding 49 3.1.5 Drought 53 3.2 Sensitivity to Current Variability and Future Change of Priority Sector 57 3.2.1 Water Resources 57 3.2.2 Food Security 59 3.2.3 Biodiversity 59 3.2.4 Health Conditions 60 3.2.5 Ecosystem Services 62 4 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 65 4.1.1 Natural Capital 66 4.1.2 Social Capital 67 4.1.3 Economic Capital 69 4.1.4 Human Capital 70 4.1.5 Political and Legislative Capital 72 5 NATIONAL SCALE ADAPTATION OPTIONS 76 6 REFERENCE 90

List of Figures

Figure 1a REGATTA VIA Analysis Methodological Framework (REGATTA,2014) 13 Figure 1b Geographical location of Antigua and Barbuda 16 Figure 2 Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of Antigua 17 Monthly precipitation time series derived from a single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Figure 3 Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of Antigua from January 1979-October 2014 18 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated from monthly precipitation time series from a Figure 4 single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of 18 Antigua from January 1979-October 2014 Accumulated annual rainfall calculated from the remotely sensed NASA TRMM precipitation Figure 5 grid cell over the island of Antigua for 2009 , 2010, and the 1998-2009 climatology 18 Remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from January Figure 6 2001 to late December 2014 19 NDVI difference between December 2010 NDVI minus December 2009 NDVI for the islands of Figure 7 Antigua and Barbuda 19 Spatial correlation between July rainfall and the following December Nino 3.4 index Figure 8 Dry composite: 2001, 1989, 2007, 1999, 2003 20 Figure 9 Wet composite: 1987, 2004, 1993, 2012, 1981 21 Figure 10 Dry and wet early season rainfall composite meridonal wind (April and May) 21 Figure 11 1 month lead time April sea surface temperature anomalies from dry and wet April composites 22 Figure 12 1 month lead time April sea surface temperature anomalies from dry and wet May composites 23 Figure 13 Contribution to Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activity in Current Prices (%) for the year 24 Figure 14 2013 (ECCB, 2014) 28 Contribution to Gross Domestic Product by specific economic activity in current prices (%) for Figure 15 the period 2000-2013 and projected for 2014-2015 (ECCB, 2014) 29 Annual Tourism Expenditure (EC$M) between 2000 and 2013 Figure 16 Annual Trade (EC$Million)-Exports and Imports for 2000-2013 30 Figure 17 Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market price for 2000-2015 (2000-2013 actual and 30 Figure 18 2014-2015 projected) (ECCB, 2014) 31 Changes in specific land use between 1985 and 1995 (Environment Division, 2014) Figure 19 Changes in Total Cultivated Acreage between 2009-2013 32 Figure 20 Land use patterns for Antigua in 2010 33 Figure 21 Ecosystems of Antigua 35 Figure 22 Ecosystems of Barbuda 37 Figure 23 Monthly variation in maximum, minimum, and mean temperature (1995-2013). 37 Figure 24 (Meteorological Services, 2014) 43 Figure 25 Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR at Runaway Bay Beach, Antigua (Simpson et al, 2012) 47 Figure 26 Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR in Coco Point, Gravenor Bay, Barbuda 48 Figure 27 Some of the areas which are mostly affected by flooding 49 Figure 28 Some other flood prone areas 50 Figure 29 Flood prone risk zone in Perry Bay (Antigua and Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010) 53 Figure 30 Drought risk profile Antigua 56 Figure 31 Drought risk profile Barbuda 56 Figure 32 Antigua Watersheds 58 Figure 33 Number of Recorded Incidences of Dengue Fever in Antigua and Barbuda 61 Figure 34 Population Density by Parish for Antigua and Barbuda 68

List of Plates

Plate 1 Impact of floodwater on citrus production in Christian Valley (Antigua and Barbuda National 46 Disaster Office, 2010 Plate 2 Impact of flood Water on Big Creek during the passage of Hurricane Earl (2010) (Antigua and 52 Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010)

List of Tables

Table 1 Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Antigua and Barbuda 41 Table 2 Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Antigua and Barbuda 42 Table 3 Economic loss/damage of events, which occurred between 1995 and 2010 44 Table 4 Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50 m and 100 m beach erosion 46 in Antigua and Barbuda (Simpson et al, 2012) Table 5 Severity of Drought Conditions 1984-2013 (30-year period) (Antigua and Barbuda 54 Meteorological Service, 2014) Table 6 Stakeholder assessment of the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on 64 water resources, agriculture, and health in Antigua and Barbuda

List of Acronyms

ADRM Agriculture Disaster Risk Management AEWS Agriculture Early Warning System AIDS Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome ALP Antiguan Labour Party APUA Antigua Public Utilities Authority ARC Antigua Rainforest Company ARCT Antigua Rainforest Canopy Tour BPW Body Pond Watershed CAMI Caribbean Agro-Meteorological Initiative CANARI Caribbean Natural Resources Institute CARIBSAVE Caribbean Sectoral Approach to Vulnerability and Resilience CariCOF Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum CARICOM Caribbean Community CARIWIN Caribbean Water Initiative CBI Caribbean Basin Initiative CDB Caribbean Development Bank CDEMA Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency CDM Comprehensive Disaster Management CDPMN Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network CPA Country Poverty Assessment CTCN Climate Technology Centre and Network DCA Development Control Agency DFATD Department of Foreign Affairs Trade and Development EAG Environmental Awareness Group EC Eastern Caribbean ECCB Eastern Caribbean Central Bank EIA Environment Impact Assessment EIMAS Environmental Information Management and Advisory System ESAL Environmental Solutions Antigua Limited FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Fund GOAB Government of Antigua and Barbuda GWP-C Global Water Partnership Caribbean HDI Human Development Index HFA Hyogo Framework of Action HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IMF Inter-Monetary Fund ISFNS Information and Early Warning System for Food and Nutrition Security IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management LAC Latin America and the Caribbean NBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan NEMMA North East Marine Management Area NEMS National Environmental Management Strategy

NEOC National Emergency Operations Centre NEST National Economic and Social Transformation NODS National Office of Disaster Services NPRS National Poverty Reduction Strategy OAS Organisation of American States OECS Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States PAHO Pan-American Health Organisation PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Assessment REGATTA Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and Climate Change Action in Latin America and the Caribbean RRACC Reduce Risks to Human and Natural Assets Resulting from Climate Change SIDS Small island Developing States SIRMM Sustainable Island Resource Management Mechanism SIRMZP Sustainable Island Resource Management Zoning Plan SLR Sea level rise SPREP South Pacific Regional Environment Programme UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP-ROLAC United Nations Environment Programme – Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlement Programme UNISRD United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UPP United People’s Party USAID United States Agency for International Development VAT Value added tax VIA Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation VIAAC Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation Analysis in the Caribbean WFCA Walling Forest Conservation Area WHO World Health Organisation WTO World Trade Organisation

8 Executive Summary

Executive Summary

By the middle of the 21st century, the Caribbean 1. Conduct a climate change Vulnerability region is expected to be warmer by between 2℃ Impact and Adaptation analysis in water to 3℃ (IPCC, 2014). Like other small islands resources, agriculture and the health sector developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean, Antigua at the national scale; is vulnerable to climate hazards such as 2. Identify adaptation options for national hurricanes, drought and extreme rainfall and action; temperature changes. These hazards present 3. Support national policies and development challenges to development processes, particularly planning processes, with the results of the those related to the agriculture, water resources VIA analysis. and health sectors. Contemporary vulnerabilities of these sectors and associated livelihoods are To effectively achieve these objectives, detailed products of coupled economic and environmental climate variability analysis was combined with interactions – double - exposure. Such national scale analyses of vulnerability (exposure, interactions can heighten vulnerabilities at various sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and adaptation levels in the society. A critical overview of the options. The preliminary findings are presented status of the vulnerability of these sectors shows below that climate change is significantly impacting livelihoods that directly and indirectly dependent Climate Variablity on ecosystem services. The climate analysis for Antigua is a product of To this end, The Regional Gateway for Technology national and regional rainfall and temperature Transfer and Climate Change Action in Latin trends and implications for vulnerability. America and the Caribbean (REGATTA) supports Specifically, the analysis included: (a) countries in this region in addressing climate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated change through the exchange of knowledge, the from monthly precipitation time series (b) development of pilot projects, and the provision Remotely sensed Normalized Difference of advisory services in adaptation and mitigation. Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from January REGATTA accomplishes these goals in 2001 to late December 2014 (c) Monthly collaboration with a set of regional Knowledge precipitation time series from January 1979- Centres for climate change technology transfer. October 2014 and (d) National and regional wet REGATTA also contributed to the implementation and dry season analysis. of the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).  Current climate trends from 1986-2010 for the eastern Caribbean including Antigua and In response to priorities conveyed by government Barbuda indicate a +0.3C / decade increase in authorities during the first REGATTA Roundtable daily maximum temperature and daily meeting, the United Nations Environment minimum temperature (also see Stephenson Programme - Regional Office for Latin American et al. 2014). However, there is no clear and the Caribbean (UNEP-ROLAC) is working with statistical trend in annual precipitation governments and regional Knowledge Centres to conduct climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) analyses in each of the four sub- regions of LAC. The national VIA in Antigua and Barbuda are to:

9 Executive Summary

 Antigua and Barbuda lie in a zone that is Vulnerability Conditions expected to receive 30-50% less rainfall in 2090 with respect to late twentieth century The assessment of climate change vulnerability at rainfall normals. The drying signal has been the national level is based on primary data from attributed to a strengthening Caribbean Low national stakeholders and key informant Level Jet and a relatively cooler tropical North interviews. Stakeholders were brought together Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to discuss the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. capacity of the three focus sectors. This  After a decade of favorable rainfall information was combined with secondary data in conditions, drying was observed during the NVIVO qualitative analysis software to early to mid-1990s. This drying trend could be characterized sector-specific vulnerability. seen through low standardized precipitation index (SPI) values during that period. Health and Water Resources Recently, very low SPI values that indicate drought conditions were also observed in  There is a consensus among national 2009 and 2014. stakeholders that the projected climate  Average rainfall between May and December changes will lead water shortages and throughout the Lesser Antilles represents increased risk to health and well-being. 80% of annual totals, whereas the Greater  Projected higher temperatures are usually Antilles receive only about 60% of annual more favourable to various bacteriological rainfall during the same period. and epidemiological agents therefore  Monitoring SPI in real time at various time increasing the possibility of the spread of intervals can help to alert residents of various communicable and infectious possible drought conditions. For example, diseases. due to the decrease of expected late season  The projected increase of approximately rainfall, 2009 rainfall totals were 1.5oC-2.0o C by 2030 and 2050 places the approximately 25% less than normal. In elderly, persons with cardiac and respiratory contrast, rainfall totals in 2010 were about problems, persons working with outdoors 25% higher than normal. engaged in strenuous activity, and persons  A slight decrease in remotely sensed living and working in poor ventilated areas at vegetation “greenness” (measured by derived risk of morbidity or mortality due to heat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, stress NDVI) occurred in the later part of 2009 in  Increased flooding will contribute to creating response to the drought conditions. An NDVI an environment conducive for the difference map between 2010 and 2009 development and spread of vectors such as December NDVI values shows that the 2009 the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Antigua and drought caused lower NDVI values Barbuda is expected to be at risk from throughout most of Barbuda and along the increased incidences of vector borne diseases northern section of Antigua such as Yellow Fever and Dengue Fever.  On average maximum NDVI values for  Drought conditions would result in increased Antigua occur late in the year during risk of the transmission of diseases such as December as a lagged response to the cholera, typhoid, and bacterial dysentery. A average peak rainfall during the late summer. major concern is the contamination of Inter-annual variability in rainfall amounts underground water storage from sewage by and related vegetative response does occur salmonella, gastroenteritis, shigellosis, and within Antigua. campylobacter.

10 Executive Summary

 Projected SLR can have devastating impact on  Periods of drought have had devastating critical water supply and communication effects on livelihoods within agriculture infrastructure. It is anticipated that 2% of industry. The agriculture sector is highly communication networks and 100% of vulnerable to climate related events, low seaport lands will be at risk from 1 m SLR. annual rainfall and high evaporation and  Despite the fact that the southwest areas are transpiration rates. Period of drought require categorised as wetter regions in Antigua and irrigation for continued yields and moderate Barbuda, the average potential levels of production and if not feasible result evapotranspiration exceeded effective in extensive crop losses. precipitation (estimated at 70% of actual) in  Despite the sector’s low contributions to GDP 11 months of the year. This contributed to and the reliance on food imports, the sector constrained plant growth due to inadequate is a significant source of local foods supply water supply, which significantly affected and plays a major role in economic growth agricultural crop production. and diversification efforts.  Water resources will be even more stressed.  The fisheries sub-sector is vulnerable to The quantity and quality of water will be hurricanes, high winds and extreme wave compromised by: action but also indiscriminate actions such as  Decrease in rainfall pollution, wetland destruction, and o Evaporation of surface water storage unplanned development o Saline intrusions in the fresh water  Continued land degradation and destruction aquifers of the coastal zones and in of biodiversity are critical problems for Barbuda where the main water Antigua and Barbuda and could significantly supply is ground water. affect the future sustainable development of o Watersheds impacted by drought Antigua and Barbuda.  The particular location identified as the most vulnerable to drought was the southeast of Antigua between English Harbour and St. James.  Some of the areas which are most affected by flooding and mudflows included Osbourn/north Pigotts areas; North Sound leading into Fitches Creek; Parts of Paynters Community; York’s New Extension; Bolands, Halcyon Road in the vicinity of McKinnon’s and Yorks Village, Cashew Hill Buckleys Road and Bath Lodge in Jennings, Grays Farm, Green Bay and Golden Grove.

Agriculture

 There is a consensus among stakeholders that the effects of climate change on agriculture in Antigua will be both direct and indirect. The country is a net importer of food, and climate change impacts in supply countries will affect the price and availability food. Local farmers are already feeling the effects of climate change which will is affecting domestic food production and food security.

1 Introduction

1.1 Project Background and Approach 12 1.2 Vulnerability Assessment and Approach and 13 Framework 1.3 Overview of Analysis Process 14

12 Introduction

1.1 Project Background and Approach

The Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer  Identify adaptation options for national and Climate Change Action in Latin America and action; the Caribbean (REGATTA) supports countries in  Support national policies and development this region in addressing climate change through planning processes, with the results of the the exchange of knowledge, the development of VIA analysis. pilot projects, and the provision of advisory services in adaptation and mitigation. REGATTA The VIA provided the understanding of Antigua accomplishes these goals in collaboration with a and Barbuda’s exposure to climatic events based set of regional Knowledge Centres for climate on current climate variability and future change. change technology transfer. REGATTA also The VIA also identified: contributed to the implementation of the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) in Latin  the impact of land use changes related to America and the Caribbean (LAC). major economic activities like tourism and agriculture on vulnerability; In response to priorities conveyed by government  key ecosystem services that contribute to authorities during the first REGATTA Roundtable livelihoods of national and local populations; meeting, the United Nations Environment  the impact of activities related to these Programme - Regional Office for Latin American livelihoods such as tourism, agriculture and and the Caribbean (UNEP-ROLAC) is working with fishing on key ecosystem services; governments and regional Knowledge Centres to  the sensitivity of water resources, agriculture conduct climate change vulnerability, impact, and and health to current climate variability and adaptation (VIA) analyses in each of the four sub- future climatic changes; regions of LAC.  natural, social, economic, political, and human capital related to adaptive capacity; In furtherance of its mandate, UNEP-ROLAC and provided technical assistance to conduct VIA  nationally appropriate adaptation options to analyses in three countries of the Caribbean sub- be integrated into strategies and policies. region, which include Antigua and Barbuda, The Commonwealth of Dominica and The Republic of The VIA analysis complements and reinforces Haiti. ongoing research and planning processes in Antigua and Barbuda. Specifically the VIA will The CARIBSAVE Partnership is the executing contribute to the country’s Third National agency for the implementation of the Caribbean Communication on Climate Change to the United VIAs. In Antigua, CARIBSAVE is working with the Nations Framework Convention on Climate Environment Division in the Ministry of Change (UNFCCC). Agriculture, Housing, Lands and the Environment. Local stakeholders selected water resources, agriculture, and health as priority sectors for the vulnerability analyses.

The main objectives of the national VIA in Antigua and Barbuda are to:

 Conduct a climate change VIA analysis in water resources, agriculture and the health sector (priority sectors) at the national scale;

13 Introduction

1.2 Vulnerability Assessment Approach and Framework

Vulnerability is a function of the character, climate change VIA analyses and implementation magnitude, and the rate of climate variation to of 4 VIA projects in the LAC region. The which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its framework captures the key components that a adaptive capacity. As a result, particular areas or VIA should entail to produce results that can be communities may demonstrate differing degrees used for adaptation planning process (Figure 1) of vulnerability, which forms the basis for (REGATTA, 2014). conducting VIA analyses. Within the VIA framework critical aspects of The REGATTA regards VIA analysis as a critical vulnerability include exposure, sensitivity, and tool, which is designed to assist decision-makers adaptive capacity. This VIA analysis has followed in effectively planning for climate change by the VIA Methodological Framework (Figure 1), evaluating the extent and magnitude of the which has been adapted to the local Antigua and expected impacts and identifying practical and Barbuda context, sector of analysis and utilised feasible measures to manage anticipated changes various methods to assess each component of the (REGATTA, 2014). There is no single approach for assessment conducting VIA analysis; however a framework was developed under the REGATTA initiative which is based on an extensive review of the

Figure 1a – REGATTA VIA Analysis Methodological Framework (REGATTA, 2014)

14 Introduction

1.3 Overview of Analysis Process

A strong emphasis was placed on the use of A preliminary identification of adaptation options existing information, stakeholder consultations, was undertaken for each sector (water resources, and local knowledge. Existing studies, projects agriculture, and health). These identified and other secondary sources of information for adaptation options strengthened ongoing policy conducting VIA analysis relevant to Antigua and and planning processes and utilised data from the Barbuda was reviewed. Data and information gaps literature review and expert opinion. were filled as far as was feasible within the resource limits of the project and proxies were Participatory stakeholder involvement in the used where appropriate. However, value was identification and prioritisation of adaptations added through analyses and outputs relevant to option yielded valuable information about the both local and national level decision makers. priorities and expectations. As a result each possible option for Antigua and Barbuda was Collaboration among stakeholders in conducting a prioritised at the national scale participatory VIA analysis lessens the occurrence of simple scenario planning- workshop where preliminary mistakes which that reduces the effectiveness of findings were strengthened and new options were adaptation actions. Therefore, national level identified. consultations and workshops were conducted to: The climate analysis is a product of national and  agree on objectives and information needs regional rainfall and temperature trends and  discuss ongoing and planned initiatives and implications for vulnerability. Specifically, we policies of relevance to this project; analyse: (a) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)  discuss vulnerability indicators and criteria for calculated from monthly precipitation time series consideration of implementable adaptation (b) Remotely sensed Normalized Difference options and Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from January  provide an indication of the type of 2001 to late December 2014 (c) Monthly information policy marker require. precipitation time series from January 1979- October 2014 and (d) National and regional wet During the national stakeholder consultations, and dry season analysis. stakeholders were asked to identify vulnerabilities, provide reasons for these existing vulnerabilities, and identify opportunities for synergies on adaptation measures or strategies.

Vulnerability indicators were developed in order to measure and monitor vulnerability and to account for the diverse socio-economic and environmental situation and processes that shape vulnerability and available capacities within Antigua and Barbuda. A vulnerability scoring framework was developed to guide the selection of draft indicators for water resources, agriculture, and health (priority sectors). The most appropriate indicators selected by stakeholders for each priority sector were used to guide the vulnerability assessment.

2 National Context

2.1 Climate variability analysis 16 2.2 Socio-demographic Conditions 26 2.3 Governance and Institutional Arrangements 27 2.3.1 Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change 27 2.4 Changes in Economic Conditions 28 2.5 Land use change 32 2.6 Ecosystem Services 36

16 National Context

2.1 Climate variability analysis

The twin-island state of Antigua and Barbuda is mid-summer rainfall minimum known as the the most central of the leeward island chain (from “mid-summer drought” (Magaña et al. 1999) Virgin Islands to Dominica) within the Caribbean (Figure 2). Region and has an exclusive economic zone of approximately 110,071 sq. km. In general, the climate of the Caribbean can be classified as dry-winter-tropical with Antigua Differences in exposure to climate hazards vary exhibiting similar patterns. Despite a general among islands, depending on their physical form. Caribbean climate, sub-regional variations in The culture, ecosystems, populations, and rainfall do exist (Jury et al. 2007).The seasonal therefore vulnerabilities are different for each variation in rainfall throughout the Lesser Antilles island. It is therefore critical to understand the including Antigua and Barbuda is classified by low context-specific conditions for each island when precipitation amounts during the winter months considering risk (IPCC, 2014). and early spring followed by increasing rainfall from the late spring into fall with maximum The island of Antigua experiences a bimodal rainfall occurring between September and annual rainfall pattern that is characteristic of the October. Caribbean. Rainfall peaks occur during the late spring and late summer period separated by a

Figure 1b – Geographic location of Antigua and Barbuda

17 National Context

Average rainfall between May and December The period between January to March is throughout the Lesser Antilles represents 80% of characterised as the dry season as typically less annual totals, whereas the Greater Antilles than 20% of the annual rainfall occurs during this receive only about 60% of annual rainfall during period. The wet season, generally between the same period. August to November receives approximately 45- 50%. May-July and December are characterised as Inter-annual variability in rainfall amounts and the intermediate months and receive an average related vegetative response does occur within of 30-35% of the total annual rainfall Antigua. Monthly rainfall rates derived from NASA’s Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) illustrate periods of low and high rainfall from 1979-2014 (Figure 3). After a decade of favorable rainfall conditions, drying was observed during the early to mid-1990s. This drying trend could be seen through low standardized precipitation index (SPI) values during that period (Figure 4). Recently, very low SPI values that indicate drought conditions were also observed in 2009 and 2014. In general, monitoring SPI in real time at various time intervals can help to alert residents of possible drought conditions.

Figure 2 – Annual rainfall cycle (1979-2014) derived from a single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) grid cell containig the island of Antigua. Units are in mm/day.

18 National Context

Figure 3 - Monthly precipitation time series derived from a single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of Antigua from January 1979-October 2014. Units are in mm/day.

Figure 4 - Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated from monthly precipitation time series from a single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of Antigua from January 1979-October 2014. SPI for three months (green) and for 7 months (magenta) are plotted above.

Figure 5 - Accumulated annual rainfall calculated from the remotely sensed NASA TRMM precipitation grid cell over the island of Antigua for 2009 (red), 2010 (green), and the 1998-2009 climatology (black). Rainfall was normal up until mid-summer during both 2009 and 2010. However, 2009 experienced approximately 25% less rainfall than normal during the later rain season while 2010 experienced approximately 25% more rainfall than normal. Dry spells can be represented by horizontal lines throughout the annual accumulated daily rainfall time series. Steep vertical lines show when rainfall events occurred.

19 National Context

The drought during 2009 in Antigua can be placed A slight decrease in remotely sensed vegetation into context with normal conditions through an “greenness” (measured by derived Normalized annual accumulated rainfall analysis (Figure 5). Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) occurred in Rainfall conditions during 2009 were normal until the later part of 2009 in response to the drought October when expected late season rainfall did conditions (Figure 6). An NDVI difference map not occur. Thus, rainfall during the latter part of between 2010 and 2009 December NDVI values the season is critical towards providing expected shows that the 2009 drought caused lower NDVI rainfall conditions. Due to the decrease of values throughout most of Barbuda and along the expected late season rainfall, 2009 rainfall totals northern section of Antigua (Figure 7). On average were approximately 25% less than normal. In maximum NDVI values for Antigua occur late in contrast, rainfall totals in 2010 were about 25% the year during December as a lagged response to higher than normal. the average peak rainfall during the late summer.

Figure 6 - Remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from January 2001 to late December 2014 derived from the Terra-MODIS satellite at 250 meter spatial resolution. NDVI time series is computed from an area average of all 250 meter MODIS pixels covering the island of Antigua.

Figure 7 - NDVI difference between December 2010 NDVI minus December 2009 NDVI for the islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

20 National Context

Current climate trends from 1986-2010 for the The drying signal has been attributed to a eastern Caribbean including Antigua and Barbuda strengthening Caribbean Low Level Jet and a indicate a +0.3C / decade increase in daily relatively cooler tropical North Atlantic sea maximum temperature and daily minimum surface temperature compared to tropical Pacific temperature (Stephenson et al. 2014).However, sea surface temperatures. A warmer tropical there is no clear statistical trend in annual Pacific is indicative of an El Nino state which has precipitation. Despite current stabilized rainfall been known to negatively impact Caribbean trends, there is a strong overall Caribbean drying rainfall in the season before peak tropical Pacific signal in late century climate model projections warming (Giannini, Kushnir, and Cane (Taylor et al. 2013; Rauscher et al. 2008). Antigua 2000)(Figure 8). and Barbuda lie in a zone that is expected to receive 30-50% less rainfall in 2090 with respect to late twentieth century rainfall normals.

Figure 8 - Spatial correlation between July rainfall and the following December Nino 3.4 index.

21 National Context

Figure 9 - Dry composite: 2001, 1989, 2007, 1999, 2003

Figure 10 - Wet composite: 1987, 2004, 1993, 2012, 1981

GPCP rainfall composites (mm/day) from top 5 dry wet or dry Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence May years and top 5 wet May years from 1979- Zone. The climatological peak of early season 2014 in Antigua. rainfall during May guides the decision to composite on wet/dry Mays. Wet and dry May composites are in phase with a

22 National Context

Figure 11 - Dry early season rainfall (left) is punctuated by lower tropospheric northerly flow (blue shading) at the 850hPa level during April and May. Wet early season rainfall (right) is punctuated by moist southerly flow from the tropics (red shading).

23 National Context

Figure 12 - 1 month lead time April sea surface temperature anomalies from dry (top) and wet (bottom) May composites.

Dry composites are consistent with a cooler warmer than normal throughout the southern equatorial Pacific during April and a warmer Caribbean Sea during wet composite years. equatorial Pacific during April for wet composites. In addition sea surface temperatures in April are

24 National Context

Figure 13 - 1 month lead time April sea level pressure anomalies from dry (top) and wet (bottom) April composites.

Higher sea level pressures throughout the subsidence. Lower sea level pressures throughout Caribbean during April may lead to drier the Caribbean during April may lead to wetter conditions for Antigua during May from enhanced conditions in May.

25 National Context

One of the main differences between the two Annual rainfall gradually increased to 99 mm in islands is that Barbuda receives lower amounts of May before decreasing again in June to an rainfall annually due to its topography. Barbuda is average of 64.2 mm (mid-summer dry spell). The one of the driest islands in the Caribbean Region. peak rainfall season is from September to The limestone nature of Barbuda and the November. Due ENSO cycle, there is the estimated 750 mm of rainfall per year contribute possibility of very wet years in Antigua and to the island being more prone to drought. Barbuda (Mitchell, 2009). El Niño and La Niña Barbuda’s dry season ranges from December to events are characterised by warmer and cooler July, while the wet season rages from August to than average sea surface temperatures in the November (GENIVAR, 2011). tropical Pacific respectively and they are associated with changes in wind, pressure and Recent observations by the Antigua and Barbuda rainfall patterns (Nurse, 2011). Meteorological Service include:

 A decline in June precipitation  A shift in the direst months from February to March  A levelling of the rainfall peak in September and a consistent but minor peak in rainfall in May (Simpson et al, 2012).

Over a thirty-year period (1984- 2013), it was noted that the months of September through to November have the highest 30 year means (1984- 2013) for rainfall (131.2 mm, 142.4 mm and 139.7 mm respectively) which coincides with the active part of the hurricane season. February is typically the driest month of the year having the recorded 42 mm the lowest amount of average monthly rainfall for the period 1984 – 2013.

Projections under the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios demonstrate an increase in rainfall during the latter part of the wet season (November-January) in the northern Caribbean (north of 22°N) and drier conditions in the southern Caribbean, with drying in the traditional wet season (June –October). The lengthening of the dry periods and increasing frequency of drought are expected to increase demand for water across the Caribbean Region (IPCC, 2014).

26 National Context

2.2 Socio-demographic Conditions

Risks due to climate change are as a result of levels in 2011 (UN-HABITAT, 2011). climate related hazards (climate trends and extremes) and the vulnerability of exposed Some major social problems that have affected communities, countries and systems (as it relates the country include: percentage of the population to livelihoods, infrastructure, ecosystem services infected with HIV/AIDS; serving as a transhipment and governance systems). For example, poverty is point for international nacro-trafficking industry a critical factor in determining vulnerability to between South America and North Atlantic climate change and extreme events (IPCC, 2014). countries; and environmental degradation.

The 2001 National Census estimated the The Caribbean has experienced an population of Antigua and Barbuda at 70,737 with epidemiological transition, which pose 33,642 males and 37,094 females. The preliminary tremendous threat to the regional health data from the 2011 Census of Population and situation. Incidences of diseases, which are Housing estimated the population of Antigua and primarily based on physiological malfunction, Barbuda at 86,295, consisting of 41,481 males and have increased and have overtaken incidences of 44,814 females. This implies that between 2001 diseases, which have their originals in the physical and 2011 Antigua and Barbuda’s population environment (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2007). increased by 18.8% (GOAB, 2012a). The country has a life expectancy rate of 72 and 74 years for In addition, the Caribbean region has the second males and females respectively. The population highest HIV prevalence in the world only second can be described as youthful with 28% of the to Saharan Africa. AIDS epidemic continues to be population below 15 and only 7% over 65 years the leading cause of death among adults 25-44 (GOAB, 2012a). years in the Caribbean, and has orphaned approximately 250,000 children (CARICOM & U.S. The National Country Poverty Assessment (CPA) Government, 2010). In 2012, in Antigua and (conducted in 2007) set a vulnerability line at Barbuda there were 216 persons with advanced 125% of the poverty line. This vulnerability line HIV. Between January-December, 2013, 33 indicated the number of persons who are at risk persons in Antigua and Barbuda were diagnosed of falling into poverty, should an unanticipated with HIV/AIDS. The percentage of persons aged event such as a natural disaster or some type of 15-24 and 15-49 years who were infected with economic shock occurs. The CPA indicated that HIV in 2013 was 12.12% (4) and 70% (23) based on the vulnerability line that an additional respectively (GOAB, 2014a). The impact of these 10% of the population was expected to fall below health issues on the youthful population of the vulnerability line in the event of unanticipated Antigua and Barbuda can have a crippling impact catastrophe such as natural or manmade disasters on the labour force and the country’s overall (Goodwin, 2009 and UN-HABITAT, 2011). economic system, therefore reducing the human capital and adaptive capacity of the country to The introduction of sale tax in 2007; increased climate change. food and fuel prices in 2008 along with increased import duties in 2009 amplified hardship across The recent economic review by the Caribbean the country. In 2006, the poverty line for Antigua Development Bank (CDB) indicated that violent and Barbuda was estimated at EC $2 449.00 (US crimes involving firearms was a major challenge $917) per annum or EC 6.71 (US $2.51) per day for Antigua and Barbuda because it could and the impoverished portion was estimated to potentially exacerbate the socio-economic be 3.7% of the population (GOAB, 2011 and UN- situation within the country by severely affecting HABITAT, 2011). St. John’s City and St. Philip in the tourism industry (Gore-Francis, 2013). Antigua possessed higher than average poverty

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Despite these social issues in 2007 Antigua and rate of 85.8% and a GDP per capita of Barbuda, ranked 57th on UNDP’s Human US$12,500.00 in 2004/2005. This demonstrates Development Index making it the second highest that Antigua and Barbuda possesses the potential ranked in the OECS during that year. The human to improve its social conditions and its overall development ranking in 2007 was based on the adaptive capacity to climate change life expectancy at birth of 73.9 years, a literacy

2.3 Governance and Institutional Arrangements

Antigua and Barbuda has a British parliamentary health, facilities, and services; the administration system of government and there are three and regulation of public utilities; and the branches of government, which include collection of financial assistance (Government of Legislative, Executive, and Judicial (UN-HABITAT, Antigua and Barbuda, 2012b). 2011). The Legislative branch consists of the House of Representatives (Lower House) which is 2.3.1 Institutional Arrangements responsible for introducing legislations and the Senate (Upper House) made up of 17 senators, for Climate Change which reviews and provides approval for the proposed legislation. The members of the House The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate of Representatives are elected by popular vote Change (CPACC) project contributed significantly during general national elections. The Executive to changing the approach to the implementation Branch of government is formed from the of internationally funded climate change projects Legislative Branch. The Prime Minister is in the Caribbean. CPACC contributed to capacity responsible for creating an executive government building for climate change through various through the appointment of other Members of workshops and the development of a draft policy Parliament to serve as his Cabinet Ministers (UN- for management of climate change impacts in the HABITAT, 2011). Caribbean.

The Judicial branch of government includes a With increased awareness of the various Magistrate’s Court for minor offences and a High conventions, the GOAB took actions to improve Court for major offences. The Judicial branch is the institutional arrangements for the designed to be independent of the Legislative and implementation of the provisions of the Executive branches although the Office of the conventions at the national level. These actions Attorney General appoints the Magistrates. included the establishment of a coordinating mechanism for all the conventions; building General elections are constitutionally mandated capacity at the national level and the every 5 years (GOAB, 2009a). The Antiguan establishment of an Energy Desk with the Labour Party (ALP) won the last elections held on responsibility of addressing the sector that is the 12th June 2014, by winning 14 of 17 seats while greatest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions the United People’s Party (UPP) captured the (GHG) (GOAB, 2009a). remaining 3 seats. The responsibilities for implementation of the Barbuda is governed by an 11 member council, UNFCCC now reside with the Environment which is given legal and institutional authority by Division. In 2005, the Environment Division the Barbuda Local Government Act CAP 44 of the became the technical agency for the Laws of Antigua and Barbuda. The major implementation of the provision of the responsibility of the Council includes management Convention (GOAB, 2009a). Other institutions of agriculture and forestry; overseeing public involved in international negotiations and other

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activities related to the conventions include: the the implementation of various policies, plans and Meteorological Office (focal point for the IPCC) programmes. These include: the completion of and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (New York the draft environmental legislation, the Mission) (GOAB, 2009a). development of the National Physical Development Plan and an Energy policy. The Since 2009 the GOAB have demonstrated its GOAB also made a public commitment through commitment to the effective management of the the UNFCCC’s Copenhagen Accord in 2010 to issues, which develop as a result of climate reduce the country’s GHG emissions by 25% of its change and other environmental factors through 1990 level by 2020.

2.4 Changes in Economic Conditions

The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) to services and infrastructure, and economic characterised Antigua and Barbuda as a middle- growth. Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is service income developing country due to its moderately based and is heavily reliant on tourism and high standards of health care, education, access government services.

Figure 14 - Contribution to Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activity in Current Prices (%) for the year 2013 (ECCB, 2014)

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In 2013, wholesale and retail trade was the 14.88%, and 15.09% for 2014 and 2015 highest contributor of GDP, and accounted for respectively. It is projected that real estate, 14% (Figure 14). Real estate, renting and business renting and business activity and hotel and activity; and hotel and restaurants contributed restaurants will account for 14.04% and 12.59% 13% and 12% of the GPD respectively in 2013 respectively for 2014 and 13.95% and 12.69% (ECCB, 2014). The contribution of GDP from both respectively for 2015. In addition agriculture, the agriculture, livestock and forestry subsector; livestock and forestry; and fishing are expected to and fishing subsector in 2013 was 1%. ECCB contribute 1.07% and 1.22% in 2014 respectively projections indicated that wholesale and retail will and 1.09% and 1.21% in 2015 respectively (ECCB, continue to be the highest contributor for the 2014). GDP in the next 2 years, and will contribute

Figure 15 - Contribution to Gross Domestic Product by specific economic activity in current prices (%) for the period 2000-2013 and projected for 2014-2015 (ECCB, 2014)

During the period 2000-2013, the agriculture, attempted to diversify the economy away from livestock and forestry; and fishing contribution to sugar cane. These attempts have attained some GDP was minimal even though fishing records a years of success, especially in 2003, 2006, 2010, higher contribution than agriculture, livestock and and 2011, which experienced growth rates of forestry (Figure 15). Between 2005 and 2007 11.24%, 10.07%, 14.38%, and 13.30% respectively agriculture, livestock and forestry recorded the in the agriculture sector (ECCB, 2014). Despite the lowest contribution to GPD. The Government of fact that the agriculture, livestock, and forestry Antigua and Barbuda tried to reverse this trend sector experience significant growth rates the for the agriculture, livestock and forestry sector in contribution of GDP from 2003-2013 was minimal 2007 by reorganising the agricultural sector, and is projected to remain minimal between 2014 placing greater emphasis specifically on small and 2015. farmers and domestic and external markets (Simpson et al, 2012). The Government also

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Figure 16 - Annual Tourism Expenditure (EC$M) between 2000 and 2013

The hotels and restaurant contribution to GDP private sector construction projects for the 2007 during the period 2000-2013 was the second World Cup. The Tourism industry in 2009 was highest after wholesale and retail trade due to severely affected due to the decline in tourist high levels of visitor expenditure. The total arrivals, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, tourism expenditure fluctuated between 2000 remittances, and fiscal revenue. While the and 2013 (Figure 16). The highest tourism tourism sector is a sensitive industry, it does expenditure was recorded for 2013 with 328.72 provide positive benefits to the country such as EC million and followed closely with 310.40 EC high levels of employment and can rebound million in 2007. The increase in tourism relatively quickly after an external shock. expenditure in 2007 was mainly due to increased

Figure 17 - Annual Trade (EC$Million)-Exports and Imports for 2000-2013

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Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is highly (Figure 17). The dependence on trade makes the dependent on imports. From 2000-2013 total economy of Antigua and Barbuda highly sensitive imports have significantly exceeded total exports, to changes within global trade and the global leading to continuous negative trade balances trading system.

Figure 18 - Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market price for 2000-2015 (2000-2013 actual and 2014-2015 projected) (ECCB, 2014)

From 2002-2007 the economy of Antigua and base; and increase in import duties and excise tax Barbuda experienced continuous growth (Figure on alcohol and tobacco (IMF, 2010). These 18). However between 2008 and 2011, Antigua measures contributed to increased growth in and Barbuda’s economy experienced a decline 2011 and 2012. The growth rate of wholesale and because of the global financial crisis, combined retail trade increased from -4.81% to 11.69% in with the collapse of the Allen Stanford group of 2012, which contributed to the overall growth companies (Simpson et al, 2012). In 2009, the rate in GDP. Mining and quarry sector grew Poverty and Social Impact Assessment (PSIA) significantly from -19.30% in 2011 to 5.97% in indicated that the global economic crisis, 2012. From 2011-2012 the construction section contributed to loss of employment and income, increased from -23.99% to 15.57%. The reduced inflows of payments and increased prices implementation of the Construct Antigua and (GOAB, 2011). The overall fiscal deficit increased Barbuda Initiative contributed significant to from 6% of GDP in 2008 to approximately 19% in improved growth within the construction sector. 2009 and public debt increased to 115% (IMF, The percentage growth rate of GDP declined in 2010). 2013 due to significant declines in vital sectors such as the whole sale and retail trade and the In 2010, the Government implemented some hotel and restaurant sectors. The growth rate for measures to address this fiscal crisis, which wholesale and retail trade declined from 11.69% included: 20% increase in petroleum product to -0.63% from 2012-2013. Similarly in 2012-2013

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prices; expansion of the Value Added Tax (VAT) the growth rate for the hotel and restaurant sector declined from 3.36% to -2.85% (ECCB, in 2014 and is projected to experience an annual 2014). The Antigua and Barbuda’s economy percentage growth rate of GDP for 2015 is 4.52%. demonstrated signs of improvement and growth

2.5 Land use change

Changes in land use are one of the most increase the vulnerability of people and significant human manipulations of the earth’s infrastructure to climate change and natural system. Usually changes in land use and land disasters (Kaplan, 2011). Land use changes within cover results in negative consequences for the agriculture and tourism sectors and the ecosystems and for the persons who depend on resultant impact will have a direct impact on their these ecosystems. As a result, land use change vulnerability to climate change. For example, land has a direct impact of the vulnerability of socio- use change to accommodate greater coastal ecological systems to biophysical, economic, and development and population densities within the environmental perturbations and their abilities to tourism industry will contribute to increased cope with disturbances. Land use changes can vulnerability.

Figure 19: Changes in specific land use between 1985 and 1995 (Environment Division, 2014)

Between 1985 and 1995, the land utilised in After 1995 agriculture lands previously under agricultural production in Antigua and Barbuda sugar cultivation were increasingly being used for experienced a 40.7% increase (Figure 19). residential and commercial development. Flat, Conversely, lands used for livestock grazing adequately drained lands, which were suitable for decreased by 48.6% during the same period. In agriculture, were usually preferred building sites addition, woodland areas decreased slightly by due to the ease and reduced cost of construction 6.9% as a result of unsustainable cutting (Figure (GENIVAR, 2011). 19) (GOAB, 2009b).

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Between 1984 and 2007 the total number of respectively. In addition, pineapples were agriculture holdings decreased by 73.57% from cultivated on 124 acres (50 hectares). The land 4,639 in 1984 to 1,226 in 2007. used for agricultural crops decreased from 7,740 Agriculture holdings decreased most drastically in acres in 1995 to only 6,855 acres in 2010 (Banhan the South Central Agricultural Division were there & Lewis, 2013). were 731 holdings in 1984 and only 85 in 2007, a decline of 88%. (GOAB, 2012c). Although the agriculture holdings and the land used for agriculture crops has decreased the total Between 2000 and 2005, the permanent and cultivated acreage increased from 2009-2013, temporary cropland remained at 24,711 acres with a drastic increase from 2009-2010 (Figure (10,000 hectares) (GOAB, 2009b). In 2009, 20). The total acreage of land under agricultural croplands covered 2,226 acres (2,226 ha) (8.5%), production in 2013 was 3,277.52 acres with improved pasture, 957 ha (3.6%), rough grazing, Belvidere and Breaknock having the largest 17,154 acres (6,942 ha) (26.4%), and mixed acreage (542.1) and Double Hole having the scrub/rough grazing, 6,981 acres (2,825 ha) smallest acreage (10.62). (10.8%) (GOAB, 2009b). In 2010, cultivated areas with food crops and vegetables were 600 acres (243 hectares) and 1,200 acres (486 hectares)

Figure 20: Changes in Total Cultivated Acreage between 2009-2013

The acreage of land under agricultural production Mangrove and swamps in Barbuda now occupy has also changed in Barbuda. The amount of land 14,468 acres while dry forest areas occupy only occupied by human settlement increased from 3,896 acres (Banhan & Lewis, 2013). Class II and III 269 acres in 1985 to 882 acres (227.9% increase) lands, which were categorised as favourable in 2010. In In Antigua and Barbuda swamp and agricultural land, were considered available mangrove, acreage decreased from 2,164 acres in opportunities for urban development, leading to a 1985 to 2,142 acres in 2005 and slightly increased dramatic decline in the agriculture sector. In to 1,161 acres in 2010. In Barbuda in 1985 addition, there is need for the Government to swamps and mangroves occupied 9,214 cares. provide institutional and physical support for the

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fishing industry to assist fisher folk in providing It has been difficult in assessing the percentage of products of sufficient quality and quantity for the forest, which is impacted by human activity domestic and international markets (GENIVAR, (GOAB, 2009b). Selective logging is permitted for 2011) (Figure 20). lumber and charcoal production. However, there are difficulties in determining the actual area Forests in Antigua and Barbuda are comprised disturbed from logging operations and therefore mostly of secondary vegetation including species statistics are based on expert judgment (GOAB, of Spanish Oak (Inca Iaurina), Silk Cotton (Ceiba 2009b). pentadra), Turpentine (Bursera simaruba) and Logwood (Haematoxylon campachianum). The present condition of the forest is a direct result of historically clearing of the Antigua’s forests for sugar cultivation (Environmental Solutions Antigua Limited, 2008). A baseline study conducted in 2009 identified that approximately 90-95% of the forest in Antigua was cleared and converted to agricultural crop and pasture lands (GOAB, 2009b).

The remaining 5-10% of forests in Antigua and Barbuda is threatened because of:

 Increased demand for boat building  Extraction of wattle for fish pots  Fuel wood and charcoal production  Deforestation resulting from mining and sand dredging activities

White Cedar forests in particular, is decreasing at rate of 3% per annum because of the demand for the construction of fishing vessels (GOAB, 2009b). After the loss of thousands of fish pots during Hurricane Luis, demand for wattle exceeded supply, which threatened the forest (GOAB, 2009b). However, in the southwest volcanic region, the forest coverage is decreasing at a slower rate, approximately 1-2% per annum. In addition, the habitat and biodiversity in the Gaynors area in the east of Antigua is threatened by increased clearing of land for agricultural development (GOAB, 2009b).

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Figure 21: Land use patterns for Antigua in 2010

The development of the tourism sector in Antigua There are pockets of tourism facilities and and Barbuda has has also resulted in changes in activities throughout Antigua but the major land use patterns. Between 1985 and 1995, current concentrations of tourism facilities are industrial land acreage increased from 381 to 584 located at Dickenson Bay and Runaway Bay; Deep acres and hotel and golf course increased from Bay/Galley Bay; Jolly Beach and English 1,133 to 2,699 acres. The urban/rural areas Harbour/Falmouth Harbour. increased dramatically from 6,627 to 17,189 acres as a result of an increase in residential areas It is expected that demands for lands for housing, (Figure 21 )(GOAB, 2009b). agriculture, tourism development, commercial space and other related uses are likely to increase The decline in agricultural lands contributed to in the future based on current trends (GOAB, people seeking livelihoods in other sectors. By 2009a). Current land use and settlement patterns 1985, approximately 60% of the work force was and plans appear to be in favour tourism and employed in public or private services including residential development while agricultural lands 23% in tourism and trade (Williams, 2003). The and environmentally sensitive areas have been expansion of the acreage used for tourism reduced significantly (GOAB, 2009a). continued into the 1990s with the total acreage increasing by 138% by 1995.

36 National Context

2.6 Ecosystem Services

Ecosystems provide a multiple of services, which  the Fort Barrington National Park (85 acres) are not only of vital importance to the (Gore-Francis, 2013). environment but also, provide tangible benefits to society (ESAL, 2009a). These services include: The ecosystems present within Antigua include freshwater, swamp/mangrove, woodland and  Supporting services: primary and secondary corals (ESAL, 2009a) (Figure 22). The interactions production and biodiversity; between the various ecosystems are evident. The  Provisioning services: food, fibre and medical woodland ecosystems located in the north- products; eastern area (uplands) in Antigua usually drain  Regulating services: carbon sequestration, into intermittent coastal streams, which in turn climate and water regulations, erosion and drain into wetlands, beaches, and coral reefs. flood protection, air and water purification Most of the woodlands are located in the and disease and pest control; and southwest region of the island. The mangrove  Cultural and recreational services: swimming, ecosystems on the western side of the island have hiking, bird watching and site seeing been damaged by pollution and physical destruction. A Healthy mangrove ecosystem can Therefore, GOAB has recognised that Antigua and be found on the southwest (Cades Bay) and Barbuda’s ecosystems do provide vital services to northeast region of the island (Figure 22). Antigua and Barbuda’s main economic activities within the tourism and agriculture industry. The The ecosystems present within Antigua include GOAB has had significant success in the protection freshwater, swamp/mangrove, woodland and of natural resources, because of collaboration corals (ESAL, 2009a) (Figure 22). The interactions with international and regional organisations, between the various ecosystems are evident. The which established a system of protected areas woodland ecosystems located in the north- and developed other policies for natural resource eastern area (uplands) in Antigua usually drain protection and management (GOAB, 2009b). into intermittent coastal streams, which in turn There are 6 designated protected areas in Antigua drain into wetlands, beaches, and coral reefs. and Barbuda based on their historical and Most of the woodlands are located in the ecological values, which include: southwest region of the island. The mangrove ecosystems on the western side of the island have  Nelson’s Dock Yard National Park, been damaged by pollution and physical  the North East Marine Management Area destruction. A Healthy mangrove ecosystem can (NEMMA), be found on the southwest (Cades Bay) and  Cades Bay Marine Reserve, northeast region of the island (Figure 22).  Codrington Lagoon National Park, and  Diamond Reef Marine Park and Palaster Reef Marine Park (UNEP, 2000 and Gore-Francis, 2013).

There are other smaller protected areas, which include:

 the Devil’s Bridge National Park (244 acres),  Green Castle Hill National Park (87 acres) and

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Figure 22: Ecosystems of Antigua

Figure 23: Ecosystems of Barbuda

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Coral reefs are located around both islands and There are 36 mangrove sites in Antigua and 9 sites coverage varies from 15.820 km2 - 25.4519 km2 in Barbuda (GOAB, 2009b). In Antigua, the sites (GOAB, 2009a) There are 4 main types of coral range from very small single layer stands of trees reefs found in Antigua and Barbuda, which to large, complex swamps (Figure 22). In Barbuda, include: there is the luxuriant 352 ha fringe mangrove of Codrington Lagoon (Figure 23). Four species of  Barrier reefs located on the southern shore, mangroves exist in Antigua and Barbuda, which parallel to a steep slope at the edge of the includes: Red Mangrove (Rhizophora mangle), narrow shelf; Black Mangrove (Avincennia germinans), White  Bank barrier reefs located on the north Mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa) and eastern and south western flanks; Buttonwood (Conorcarpus erectus) (GOAB,  Fringing reefs located on the eastern, 2009b). northern and southern coasts; and  Patch reefs mainly found in Barbuda (GOAB, 2009a).

Reef development is better on the windward east coast of Antigua due to high wave energy, which ensures circulation of nutrients, coupled with the absence of muddy sediments (Gore-Francis, 2013). Conversely, the leeward side of Antigua is poorly developed due to the absence of favourable environmental conditions.

3 Climate change vulnerability and impact

3.1 Exposure 40 3.1.1 Increased climate variability 40 3.1.2 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 44 3.1.3 Sea level rise and storm surge 46 3.1.4 Flooding 49 3.1.5 Drought 53 3.2 Sensitivity to Current Variability and Future 57 Change of Priority Sector 3.2.1 Water Resources 57 3.2.2 Food Security 59 3.2.3 Biodiversity 59 3.2.4 Health Conditions 60 3.2.5 Ecosystem Services 62

40 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Despite future emissions, the earth’s system is present and future changes is an absolute already committed to further warming, mainly imperative. Understanding the vulnerability of due to past emissions and inertia in the climate Antigua and Barbuda through the VIA analyses system. Large –scale warming of approximately will help the country to better plan for climate 4°C or above will increase the likelihood of severe, change adaptation widespread, and irreversible impacts to which it would be difficult to adapt. Climate change Island vulnerability depends on climatic factors impacts will increase risk of death, injury, ill but also socio-economic, physical, and ecological health, or disrupt livelihoods in the Caribbean stressors and interactions between them. Physical region and other SIDS as a result of storm surges, characteristics can create inherent vulnerabilities coastal flooding and sea level rise. (IPCC, 2014). to landslides and storm surge risks. Socio- The high diversity of the Caribbean islands in economic vulnerabilities are related to pollution relation to physical and human resources and and sanitation. Ecological stresses such as habitat their response to climate related drivers implies loss and degradation, invasive species, pollution that climate change impacts, vulnerability, and and over exploitation can harm biodiversity and adaptation will be different for the various reduce the ability of ecosystems to bounce back Caribbean islands. Due to the fact that majority of after shocks. To understand climate vulnerability the Caribbean island including Antigua and on islands, it is necessary to assess all of these Barbuda have had difficulties with dealing with dimensions of vulnerability. Islands faced with the effects of climate variability; developing multiple stressors can be assumed to be at more pragmatic adaptation solutions to cope with. risk from climate impacts (IPCC, 2014).

3.1 Exposure

3.1.1 Increased climate variability

Detailed climate modelling projections for Antigua and Barbuda as it relates to climate variability indicated an increase in average atmospheric temperature and reduced average annual rainfall (Simpson, et. al., 2012) (Table 1 and 2).

41 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Antigua and Barbuda: Country Scale Changes in Temperature

Observed Observed Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Mean Trend 2020s 2050s 2080s 1970-99 1960-2006 Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max

(˚C) (change in˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C per decade) A2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.3 3 Annual 26.3 0.13* A1B 0.2 0.7 1 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.1 2.1 2.8 B1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.4 2 A2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.4 3 DJF 25.2 0.10* A1B 0.2 0.7 1 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.2 2.1 3 B1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 A2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.8 MAM 25.7 0.11* A1B 0.1 0.6 1 0.9 1.4 1.7 0.9 2 2.6 B1 0.1 0.6 1 0.4 1 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 A2 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.9 JJA 27.3 0.16* A1B 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.7 1 1.9 2.7 B1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 1 1.2 0.8 1.3 2 A2 0.3 0.8 1 1 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.4 3.2 SON 27.1 0.17* A1B 0.3 0.7 1.2 1 1.5 2 1.3 2 3.1 B1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.4 2.1

Table 1 - Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Antigua and Barbuda.

42 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Antigua and Barbuda: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation

Observed Observed Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Mean Trend 2020s 2050s 2080s 1970-99 1960-2006 Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max

(mm per (change in Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month month) mm per decade) A2 -8 -2 3 -17 -3 10 -31 -6 8 Annual 172 -2.8 A1B -5 -1 7 -9 -3 8 -21 -5 13 B1 -8 -2 9 -10 -2 5 -12 -4 8 A2 -8 0 8 -10 -2 3 -8 -1 6 DJF 138.9 2.9 A1B -6 0 4 -5 0 6 -22 0 3 B1 -8 0 5 -7 -1 4 -15 0 7 A2 -8 -1 9 -17 -1 10 -25 -2 3 MAM 133.4 -5.9 A1B -4 0 6 -11 0 7 -17 -1 6 B1 -2 0 11 -10 0 3 -8 0 5 A2 -18 -3 8 -27 -9 11 -64 -16 4 JJA 176.9 -4.2 A1B -12 -2 11 -21 -10 14 -44 -9 12 B1 -18 -3 20 -26 -6 0 -22 -10 10 A2 -17 -3 10 -20 -4 24 -48 -11 26 SON 235.3 -3.6 A1B -13 0 13 -22 -3 21 -32 -2 41 B1 -24 -1 14 -28 1 20 -22 -3 23

Table 2 - Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Antigua and Barbuda.

43 Climate change vulnerability and impact

In terms of atmospheric temperature, the insular The annual range for the mean temperatures is Caribbean can expect an increase of 1.8-4.0°C by small (less than 3.1°C), with peak temperatures 2099 (Gore-Francis, 2013). Specifically air values occurring between August and September temperature within the insular Caribbean will (Figure 24). It has been observed that maximum increase by 1.8-4.0°C by 2099. Air temperatures in temperatures for Antigua and Barbuda are Antigua and Barbuda are expected to increase by increasing at a slightly faster rate than minimum 1.3°C by 2050 and by 1.0-3.5 °C by the end of the temperatures (GOAB, 2009a and Antigua and century Barbuda Meteorological Servcie, 2014). It was estimated that as early as 1990-1995 average In recent years, maximum and minimum annual temperatures in some Caribbean countries temperatures in Antigua and Barbuda have had increased by at least 0.5°C and even extended increased providing strong supporting evidence of to ≥1°C (DFATD, SREP & CARICOM, 2005). climate change. It is anticipated that the warming trend will continue, which will increase the frequency of hot days and reduce the frequency of cool nights (Gore-Francis, 2013).

Figure 24: Monthly variation in maximum, minimum, and mean temperature (1995-2013). (Meteorological Services, 2014)

44 Climate change vulnerability and impact

The lack of significant topographic variability of A significant number of extreme hydro- the Antigua and Barbuda landmasses has resulted meteorological events of different level of impacts in increased exposure to the effects of wind and have affected Antigua and Barbuda between 1971 rain (The World Bank, 2010). Evapotranspiration and 2012 (Table 3) (The Government of Antigua rates are high because of steady winds and high and Barbuda, 2001b, 2009, Gomes, 2008; The temperatures, with average rates between 87 World Bank, 2010; Solomon et al, 2011; Simpson mm/month in November and 143 mm/month in et al, 2012; Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological March (Mitchell, 2009). Even in the wetter Office, 2014). southwest region of Antigua, the average potential evapotranspiration exceeded effective precipitation (estimated at 70% of actual) in 11 months of the year (Mitchell, 2009).

3.1.2 Tropical Storms and

Hurricanes

Hydro-meteorological hazards pose the greatest risk to Antigua and Barbuda, and historic disaster records in Antigua and Barbuda demonstrate that hurricanes and tropical storms are the highest- cost hazards in terms of loss of life and economic losses. It is projected that the maximum wind speed of the strongest hurricane is projected to increase by 5% (low scenario) and 15% (high scenario) which would increase the impact in terms of loss of life and other economic losses.

YEAR EVENT ECONOMIC LOSS/DAMAGES (EC$

1995 Hurricane Luis 346.55 million 1998 Hurricane Georges 200 million 1999 Hurricane Jose and Lenny 247.43 million 2008 Hurricane Omar 48.6 million 2010 Hurricane Earl 52,106,336.73

Table 3 - Economic loss/damage of events, which occurred between 1995 and 2010

45 Climate change vulnerability and impact

A significant number of extreme hydro- The agriculture sector was severely impacted meteorological events have had significant after the passage of Hurricane Earl (2010), due to economic impact on Antigua and Barbuda (Table damage to vegetable and tree crops, seedlings, 3). Hurricane Luis (1995) was the most farm infrastructure and irrigation equipment devastating system and it resulted in 17% (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2010). Crops and decrease in tourist arrivals that year; 7,000 were economic losses were also high after the passage unemployed; 90% of buildings were destroyed of Hurricane Earl (2010) as a result of flood and and damages amounted to US $128.35 million or wind damage (Table 3). 30.49% of the GDP (Solomon et al, 2011 and Gores-Francis, 2013). During the passage of Hurricane Luis (1995), farmers and households experienced the greatest negative impact (GOAB, 2001b). The areas, which were mainly affected during the passage of Hurricane Luis (1995), included: Cades Bay, Orange Valley, Parham Lodge and BelvedereI Body Pond.

During the passing of Hurricane Omar (2008), there were 4 landslides in the Fig Tree Drive area. The largest landslide occurred west of the Antigua Canopy Tours and was approximately 60 m in length and 40 m at the widest point. In addition, there were landslides in several other communities including Folly Ghaut, Crabb Hill and Ebenezer (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008).

During the passage of Hurricane Earl 2010, 7.78 inches of rain was recorded within 24 hours and 12 persons had to be evacuated as a result of flooding (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2010). During the passage of Hurricane Earl (2010), 259 persons occupied the shelters and another 51 persons sort shelter with friends and family.

46 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Flood caused major problem for citrus production.  Emerald Voce, and The waterlogged conditions predisposed the  Codrington Wharf (Barbuda). plants to fungal and bacterial rots from the soil and reduced the fertility of the soil due to the washing away of the topsoil (Plate 1). Restoration 3.1.3 Sea level rise and storm surge and replacement costs for the crop subsector resulted in $12,310,000.00 EC. Sea level rise poses one of the most widely recognised climate change threats to low-lying coastal area in small islands where majority of the communities and infrastructure is located in coastal zones and with limited relocation within the island (IPCC, 2014).

Globally, sea level have risen faster than at any time during the previous two millennia. Sea level rise projections in the Caribbean region under an intermediate low-emissions scenario (RCP4.5) are similar to global projections of between 0.4 and 0.7 m, ranging from 0.5 and 0.6 m (IPCC, 2014). A rise in sea level as low as 0.1 m could likely result in a decrease in aquifer thickness of more than 10 Plate 1 – Impact of floodwater on citrus m therefore contributing to a substantial decline production in Christian Valley (Antigua and in fresh water availability (Simpson et al, 2012). Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010 SLR scenarios of 1 m and 2 m, and beach erosion After the passage of Hurricane Earl (2010) the scenarios of 50 m and 100 m were projected for fisheries industry reported tremendous damage Antigua and Barbuda (Table 4). Ten percent (10%) to infrastructure and equipment, which mainly of the major tourism properties, 2% of road occurred at: networks, and 100% of seaports in Antigua and Barbuda are at risk from 1 m SLR. In addition, with  English Harbour, 100 m of erosion due to 1 m SLR, 44% of the  Jolly Harbour, major tourism and 65% of sea turtle nesting sites  Keeling Point, will be impacted (Simpson et al, 2012) (Table 4).  Point Wharf,  Bryson Wharf,

Major Sea Turtle Airport Major Road Seaport Tourism Nesting Sites Lands Networks Land SLR 1.0 m Resorts10% 12% 0% 2% 100% 2.0 m 18% 18% 100% 6% - Coastal 50 m 34% 50% - - - Erosion 100 m 44% 65% - - -

Table 4 - Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50 m and 100 m beach erosion in Antigua and Barbuda (Simpson et al, 2012)

47 Climate change vulnerability and impact

The issue of coastal squeeze remains a concern located along the coast, which increases the for many small islands as there is a constant vulnerability of the tourism industry to struggle to manage the requirements for physical stormsurge. For example, 39 of the 55 tourism development against the need to maintain accommodation in Antigua and Barbuda have ecological balance (IPCC, 2014). The high density beachfront locations (UNEP, 2000). Important of tourism development on the coast increased resorts and central infrastructure such as ports the vulnerability to climate change and SLR as well and airports, which are located less than 6 m as the risk of degradation of coastal and marine above sea level are at high risk from SLR, and biodiversity (Simpson et al, 2012). A reduction in storm surge. the width of the beach buffer zone due to SLR and storm surge will increase the vulnerability of Development in high vulnerability, hazard prone coastal infrastructure to erosive wave action and areas resulted in high risk and partial adaption, can contribute to the loss of critical fish landing which mainly consisted of costly structural sites in Antigua and Barbuda. In addition, impacts measures. A vulnerability score based on location of SLR and storm surge on beaches increases the factors of settlements resulted in 34% of the vulnerability of species of marine turtles, iguanas, major settlements within Antigua and Barbuda and shore birds (Simpson et al, 2012). being classified as low vulnerability, 28% as moderate, and 19% as high vulnerability. Population growth and urbanisation have contributed significantly to the scarcity of hazard The areas at greatest risk to SLR and storm surge free or low hazard zones (UNEP, 2000). This in Antigua include Dickenson Bay, Fort Bay, and contributed to a reduction in resilience to Runaway Bay (Figure 25). In Barbuda, Cocoa Point associated climate change impacts such as storm (Figure 26), Palm Beach and Palmetto Point, are at surge. In addition, storm surge events have risk to SLR and storm surge, with Low Bay at caused tremendous damage to coastal greatest risk (Simpson et al, 2012). infrastructure (Solomon et al, 2011). Majority of Antigua and Barbuda’s tourism infrastructure is

Figure 25: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR at Runaway Bay Beach, Antigua (Simpson et al, 2012)

48 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Figure 26: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR in Coco Point, Gravenor Bay, Barbuda (Simpson et al, 2012)

A major impact of storm surge on some beaches surge and the southwestern section of Parham in Antigua and Barbuda was severe sand loss Harbour would lie within the high vulnerability (Solomon et al, 2011). Between 1996 and 2001, zone (3.0 m). In addition, the 50-year return Palm Beach in Barbuda experienced erosion at an period would increase the intrusion of moderate alarming rate of 0.8 m/year. Palm Beach can be surge around Hanson’s Bay, Jolly Harbour, and expected to experience increased rates of erosion Parham Harbour. The 100-year return period in the future (Simpson et al, 2012). would increase the vulnerability of Hanson’s Bay area and result in high storm surge throughout Hurricane Luis (1995) resulted in storm surges of the Parham area (GOAB, 2001c). up to 15 feet (5 meters) (GOAB, 2001b). Based on storm surge vulnerability by return period for the 10-year period, the entire coast with the exception of Fitches Creek/Parharm Harbour would be within the low storm surge vulnerability zone (storm surge heights of 0.1-0.5 m). Fitches Creek/Parham Harbour would lie within the medium storm surge vulnerability zone of 0.5-1.5 m (GOAB, 2001b). For the 25-year return period majority of the coast would lie within a moderate vulnerability storm surge zone (GOAB, 2001b). In addition, Hanson’s Bay and Jolly Harbour area would be subject to intrusions of moderate storm

49 Climate change vulnerability and impact

3.1.4 Flooding Antigua and Barbuda’s vulnerability to coastal flooding (Gomes, 2008). Some of the areas, which The impact of floods is in recent times has are most, affected by flooding and resultant become a critical concern for Antigua and mudflows include: Osbourn/north Pigotts areas; Barbuda (Solomon et al, 2011). The reasons for North Sound leading into Fitches Creek; Parts of the increase in flood concern in Antigua and Paynters Community; York’s New Extension; Barbuda included: Halcyon Road in the vicinity of McKinnons and Yorks Village (Figure 27); Cashew Hill area and Golden Grove (Figure 28) (Solomon et al, 2011  increased frequency of cyclones due to the and Simpson et al, 2012). Specific parts of low impact of climate change and global warming; lying coastal cities, such as areas in the vicinity of  the construction of homes in unsuitable areas St. John are most vulnerable to flooding and such as swamps, low lying and flood prone erosion. These areas include: Perry Bay, Green areas; Bay (Figure 27), Fibrey, Lower North Street, Lower  blockage of the natural flow of the water Villa, Lower Fort Road, and Yorks (Solomon et al., course, ponds, wetlands and catchment; 2011). The North Sound Bridge and North of  the blockage of constructed drains by solid Bendals Bridge lie within the high flood waste and uncontrolled vegetation growth vulnerability zones (GOAB, 2001c). and soil deposits (Solomon et al, 2011).

Issues such as reclamation of lands, sand mining and the lack of a comprehensive system to control flooding and sedimentation have also increased

Figure 27: Some of the areas which are mostly affected by flooding

50 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Figure 28: Some other flood prone areas

Hurricane Lenny (1999) resulted in 23 inches of floodwaters. Even vehicles and transportation rain over 2.5 days, which caused massive flooding infrastructure was impacted by floodwaters (GOAB, 2000 and 2001c). This further contributed during Hurricane Omar. Forty-seven vehicles were to mudslides, which accounted for approximately partially or totally submerged (Antigua and 5 million cubic feet of soil loss. Barbuda NODS, 2008).

One of the biggest challenges facing Antigua and The flood situation within the communities of Barbuda was the need to relocate people due to Piggotts, Green Bay (Figure 27), and Boland the threat of flooding (Solomon et al, 2011). Flood (Figure 28) has been very severe due to water levels were approximately between 4 to 12 construction and development of residential feet during the passage of Hurricane Omar (2008). buildings without adequate consideration of During the passing of Hurricane Omar 1,339 hazard vulnerability, which is exacerbated by homes were flooded, of which 33% (411), 41% improper drainage (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, (549) and 26% (348) were categorised as level 3, 2 2008). and 1 impacts1 respectively (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). Four homes, located in close 1Level 4 damage/impact: Totally destroyed and impossible to proximity to watercourses in Jennings, Buckleys repair. Level 3 damage/impact: the house is unlivable unless repairs have been carried out. In the event that household and Road, and Bath Lodge, were washed away by personal items are not in a condition equal to the initial state floodwaters during Hurricane Omar. Many homes before the event, immediate assistance is required. Salvaging in Piggotts, Bolands, and Grays Farm were also certain items is a possibility. Level 2 damage/impact: the flooded during Hurricane Omar, which house is livable with minor repairs and these repairs are done without outside intervention. Level 1 damage/impact: No contributed to 5,088 persons being affected by assistance required.

51 Climate change vulnerability and impact

During Hurricane Omar (2008) 98 homes in West Palm Beach area has a history of flooding Pigotts, St. Georges were affected by floodwaters since the passage of Hurricane Lenny (1999) which amounted to 468 persons being impacted. because of poor drainage, unsuitable Sixty-two persons were evacuated from flooded infrastructure and improper integrated planning areas near the Pigotts Main Road, Burma Road (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). There is and Paynters West. Paynters West has a history of evidence that flooding in this area was folding since Hurricane Lenny (1999) but during exacerbated due to the construction of the Jolly the passage of Hurricane Omar (2008) the flood Harbour Development. Despite the fact that flood situation was much more extensive. Damages in impact at Jolly Harbour was minimal, the Potters, New Wintropes, Barnes Hill were helicopters, which were stationed there, were minimal; and flooding was less severe (Antigua submerged and sustained considerable damage. and Barbuda NODS, 2008). Two of the helicopter needed to be repaired and two needed to be replaced (Figure 28) (Antigua Eighty-two persons were evacuated from Grays and Barbuda NODS, 2008). Farm (rural west area) during Hurricane Omar. The water levels reached at least 4-9 feet in this During the passage of Hurricane Omar (2008), the area. Four hundred and forty-five homes, totaling impact of floodwaters to Urlings Village was very 1,355 persons in the Grays Farm area were severe due to the added threat of land slippage. impacted by floodwaters during Hurricane Omar Floodwaters and the movement of landslide (2008) (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). During material during the passage of Hurricane Omar this flood event, the longest drainage system in a (2008) affected 10 homes in Urling Village. Land developed community in Antigua was slippage damaged roads and 2 bridges (Antigua compromised in some areas, which exacerbated and Barbuda NODS, 2008). Some of major areas of the situation. It is projected that that similar concern due to the risk of flooding and the rainfall events would result in similar setbacks or associated risk of landslides included: Freetown, lead to a worse situation. The impact of the Folly Ghaut, Buckleys Bridge, Dog Farm, and North floodwaters to Five Islands and Golden Grove South (Between Mathews and Roman Hill) New Extension was less severe (Antigua and (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). Barbuda NODS, 2008). During Hurricane Omar, 10 homes in Jennings During Hurricane Omar (2008), 52 people were were damaged due to floodwaters. Two were evacuated from Bolans, St. Mary south due to washed way from the foundation, 5 in Bethesda flooding and were sheltered at the Jolly Beach Village and 3 in Urlings sustained moderate roof Hotel. 197 homes were affected by the damage (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). floodwaters, which amounted to 711 persons being impacted. In addition, 11 vehicles were flooded (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). During Hurricane Omar (2008) road networks were also damaged by floodwaters for example, the road leading to Roses was damaged about half a mile. In the Bolan Village, specifically in the area called Ally (narrow strip of land between the watercourse and the road), was flooded. In some cases, flooding was due to the obstruction of the water passage by fencing and other properties (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2008). Similar flood conditions were experienced during Hurricane Earl (2010) (Figure 27) (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2010).

52 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Of the 476 families, which were impacted by During Hurricane Earl (2010), the residents in Hurricane Earl, 396, 76, and 4 properties Bendals were blocked in from both ends due to sustained level 1, 2 and 3 damage respectively. A floodwaters, from Bathlodge and Big Creek. The total of 1,312 persons were impacted by this flood situation was so severe that Bathlodge road event. There was also flooding in several areas in was submerged by 5 feet of water and Big Creek rural north including: along Friars Road, along the was described as a sea of water (Plate 2) (Antigua watercourse from Wood’s Mall pond down and Barbuda NODS, 2010). towards Junk Yard Cocks, Cedar Grove and Royal Garden (Antigua and Barbuda NODS, 2010). The York’s Community area is characterised as low lying and flood prone. Additional water runoff from new developments in the area coupled with inadequate drainage and silting exacerbates the problem.

Plate 2: Impact of flood Water on Big Creek during the passage of Hurricane Earl (2010) (Antigua and Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010)

53 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Figure 29: Flood prone risk zone in Perry Bay (Antigua and Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010)

Two of the most severely affected areas by flood In addition flooding of agricultural fields at various impact during Hurricane Earl (2010) were stages of production during the passage of Perrybay (Figure 29) and Bolans. The depth of the Hurricane Earl (2010), resulting in severe damage water varied from 2-3 feet to 8-10 feet (Antigua to crops, seedlings and soil, ultimately affected and Barbuda, 2010). It should be noted then even the agricultural industry. with working pumps, the area still experienced some level of flooding.

3.1.5 Drought has experienced a significant increase in the number of consecutive dry days has been found The lengthening of the dry periods and increasing for the Caribbean region. This is an indication that frequency of droughts are expected to increase period of drought are becoming increasingly demand for water across the Caribbean Region. common (Simpson et al, 2012). Under an intermediate low-emissions scenario (RCP4.5) a decrease in rainfall of about 5-6% is Antigua and Barbuda are two of the driest islands projected for the Caribbean region by the end of in the Caribbean region owing to their geographic the century. This signals a potential future threat position and topographic features. The low levels to agriculture and water availability for the of rainfall combined with porous limestone Caribbean region (IPCC, 2014). geology make the islands vulnerable to hydrological drought (Solomon et al, 2011). Decreases in precipitation are projected for the Antigua and Barbuda has a long history of Caribbean region, which is likely to experience droughts. Overall rainfall has decreased shorter rainy seasons and precipitation in shorter significantly, evaporation rates are high and duration, intense events interspersed with longer therefore the impact of drought has become periods of relatively dry conditions. In addition it more severe recently in Antigua and Barbuda has been determined that the Caribbean region (Simpson et al, 2012).

54 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984 Severe Severe Severe Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious 1985 Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Moderate 1986 Moderate Serious Serious Serious Severe Severe Severe Severe Severe 1987 Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate 1988 Slight Slight Slight Slight Slight 1989 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 1990 Moderate Moderate Moderate Serious Serious Serious Serious 1991 Serious Serious Moderate Moderate Moderate 1992 Moderate Moderate Moderate 1993 Slight Slight Slight Slight Slight Slight Serious Serious Serious 1994 1995 Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious 1996 Serious Serious Serious Serious Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 1997 Moderate Moderate Moderate 1998 Moderate Moderate Moderate Slight Slight Slight Slight Slight 1999 2000 Severe Severe Severe 2001 Severe Severe Severe 2002 Severe Severe Severe Severe Severe Severe 2003 2004 2005 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 2006 Moderate Moderate Moderate 2007 Moderate Moderate Moderate Slight Slight 2008 Slight Slight Slight 2009 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Serious Serious Serious 2010 Moderate Serious Serious Serious Moderate Moderate 2011 Moderate Moderate Moderate 2012 Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious Serious 2013 Serious Serious Serious Table 5 - Severity of Drought Conditions 1984-2013 (30-year period) (Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service, 2014)

55 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Drought conditions from 1874-1949 exacerbated Drought vulnerability zones for the country was the health situation and contributed to the death determined based on environmental, of 14 people (GOAB, (2001c). In 1984 Antigua and meteorological; hydrological, infrastructural and Barbuda experienced a period of severe drought human and land use. Based on the drought between January to March, with extreme low vulnerability zones the northeast and southwest rainfall of 22.2 inches and forced Government to of Antigua are most vulnerable to drought (GOAB, resort to importing water from neighbouring 2001c) (Figure 30). The specific location identified islands. For the remaining months of the year as the most vulnerable to drought was the drought conditions persisted but were reduced to southeast of Antigua between English Harbour serious drought conditions (Table 5). During the and St. James (GOAB, 2001c). drought period, 1983-1984, all surface reservoirs were depleted and the ground water supply only Most of the development in Barbuda occurred produced one sixth of the constrained national within the zone of high drought vulnerability demand (UNEP, 2000 and Simpson et al, 2012). In (Figure 31). In addition, the town of Codrington addition during this period of drought farmers and the entire south coast from River Port to were forced to abandoned their crops lands and Cocoa Point in Barbuda are located within the allowed their livestock to fend for themselves high drought vulnerability zone. Agricultural and (UNEP 2000). tourism development within Palmento in Barbuda were located within the zone of low drought Prevailing drought conditions between 1984-2001 vulnerability contributed to the rapid loss of vegetative cover and led to further land degradation (GOAB, 2001c). In 2000, annual rainfall records in Barbuda totalled less than 706 mm for ten years (Simpson et al, 2012). To combat future impending drought conditions the Government installed a desalinating plant at Crabbes Peninsula between 1893 and 1984. In addition, during the dry season ground water resources are reduced to as low as 30% of yield potential.

The agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to climate related events such as drought, tropical storms and associated flooding. During periods of low annual rainfall and high evaporation and transpiration rates, the agriculture sector requires irrigation for continued yields and moderate levels of production (Simpson et al, 2012). In 2010, onion and tomato crops in Antigua and Barbuda decreased by 25% and 30% respectively, due to water stressed conditions (Roberts, 2013).

56 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Figure 30: Drought risk profile Antigua

Figure 31: Drought risk profile Barbuda

57 Climate change vulnerability and impact

3.2 Sensitivity to Current Variability and Future Change of Priority Sector

3.2.1 Water Resources  saline intrusions in the fresh water aquifers located within the coastal area; Fresh water supplies in small islands have always  increased evaporation from surface water been a challenge due to the topography and storage; geology of islands and capacity to store water  increased damage to water distribution resources. Rapidly growing demand, land use infrastructure, change, urbanisation, and tourism are already  increased vulnerability of watersheds due to placing siginificant strain on limited freshwater increasing drought conditions, resources. In addition mismanagement of water  increased dependence on desalinated water resources in the Caribbean occur on a backdrop of to supply growing demand; decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature  inadequate reservoir design and catchment (IPCC, 2014). management; and  high vulnerability to flooding The provision of a safe and adequate supply of water has been a significant challenge for Antigua Antigua and Barbuda is mainly karstic in nature and Barbuda because of is particular vulnerability and as such, the water is maintained in a Ghyben- to a reduction in availability (Gomes, 2008 and the Herzberg lens. A , Ghyben-Herzberg lens is a GOAB, 2009a). The average annual rainfall for section of fresh water floating above salt water, Antigua and Barbuda is 1,016 mm and the current which is replenished by rainfall (The World Bank, water output is estimated to range between 2010). 18,640 m3 and 20,460 m3 per day (4.9 to 5.4 million US gallons per day) (Simpson et al, 2012). Antigua’s 86 watersheds (Figure 32) can be Of the water, withdrawals used, the domestic categorised into 13 larger watershed, Potworks sector, industry and other purposes constitute (4000 ha) and Big Creek (3160 ha) being the two 60%, 20%, and 20% respectively. As a result, largest (Cooper & Bowen, 2001 and the GOAB, water withdrawal per capita is estimated to be 80 2009a). The four other watersheds that are of m3 per year (Simpson et al, 2012). importance include Fitches Creek, Christian Valley, Parham, and Bethesda (Cooper & Bowen, 2001). Climate change has adversely affected the These 6 watersheds occupy 43% of the land area watersheds (GOAB, 2009a). In addition to issues and contain 80% and 90% of the groundwater with water management and the removal of supplies and the surface water storage vegetation cover, increased saline intrusion due to respectively (Cooper & Bowen, 2001 and the climate change can exacerbate the water GOAB, 2009a) The watersheds are considered to situation in Antigua and Barbuda (The World be quite short, as the largest one is not more than Bank, 2010). The main impacts of climate change 11 km (Cooper & Bowen , 2001). on water resources in Antigua and Barbuda included:

 increase stress on limited available water supply specifically during the dry season;

58 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Figure 32: Antigua Watersheds

Approximately 70% of Antigua’s daily water  reduced water supply, supply during the wet years and 100% during the  the siltation of reservoirs and very dry periods is obtained from desalination  reduced rates of recharge for aquifers. water, with the remainder supplied by surface storage and wells (GWP-C, 2013). In Barbuda, the nature of the soil and topography makes surface run off minimal and as such, there A number of factors contribute to current water are 10 watersheds. Barbuda is categorised as an shortages in Antigua and Barbuda, which includes: arid island with the absence of permanent streams and a few seasonal lakes and inland  insufficient storage during rainfall events, depressions. Therefore, its main water supply is  limited number of distribution pipes, based on ground water, which was increasingly  limited number of treatment plants, and threatened by saline intrusions). The total  key water resources challenges (GWP-C, reservoir storage capacity is only equivalent to 2013) approximately 1-year’s water demand and is highly dependent on full annual replenishment to Watersheds in Antigua and Barbuda have been prevent shortages (Gomes, 2008). The relative subjected to various stresses including pollution slight changes in temperature and precipitation from agriculture and settlements, which for Barbuda, coupled with the collective effects of contributed to: evapotranspiration and soil moisture could result in massive reductions in runoff. Unfortunately  degradation of the watershed, increased intense rainfall in Barbuda is not always an effective means of replenishment as it often leads to increased runoff and the risk of flash flooding (Gomes, 2008).

59 Climate change vulnerability and impact

3.2.2 Food security This led to over exposure of topsoil, which resulted in erosion and downstream Given the global interdependence of countries, sedimentation. Such occurrences have caused the impact of climate change on resources or dams, streams, and ponds to lose effective commodities in one place will have significant storage capacity and therefore increased the effects on prices, supply chains, trade, likelihood of downstream flooding and pollution. investment, and political relations in other places. Irrigation is expected to be more critical with the Therefore, climate change will progressively anticipated increase in temperature extremes due threaten food security and economic growth in to climate change. complex ways especially in SIDS (IPCC, 2014). 3.2.3 Biodiversity Maintaining the health of the watersheds is critical to the sustainable development of the The continued practice of indiscriminate cutting, agriculture sector particularly as it relates to food clearing for agriculture; uncontrolled grazing and security (ESAL, 2008). Even in irrigated areas, the fires have contributed to severe degradation, limited supply of water has stunted plant growth accelerated erosion and reduced productivity of and fruits sizes (ESAL, 2008). Since Antigua’s the land (Environment Division, GOAB, 2009a). In average evaporation has been significantly higher addition, poor farming practices have negatively than the annual average rainfall, supplemental affected biodiversity and has contributed to the irrigation was necessary to sustain yields. overall decline in ecosystem health across the Antigua’s rainfall reliability even during the wet island (Mitchell, 2009). season experienced frequent dry periods that were sufficiently serious to impact crop Despite the fact that the fisheries sector was production. thriving economically 2005-2007 there were threats to the biodiversity of the resource and Antigua and Barbuda has experienced increase in entire marine environment and ecosystem, which the frequency and intensity of floods and included: droughts. This has contributed to increase concern about the impact of climate change due  increased pressure from overfishing and to the fact that the agricultural sector is primarily destructive fishing methods; rain-fed. This therefore creates an significant link  increase development of coastal hotels and between climate change and food security in marinas; Antigua and Barbuda given the potential of  pollution from land based and marine climate change to increase the risk of reduced sources; food supply and income disruptions and reduced  habitat modification and physical destruction stability of domestic food supplies. In addition from natural events and human activity; major of these losses are borne by producers who  overcrowding of the marine environment, are already small and vulnerable which impacts  decrease access to markets; and the rehabilitation efforts in the sector (GOAB,  local and global market conditions (GOAB, 2012a). 2009b and Gore-Francis, 2013).

A significant shortage of agricultural labour due to competition from more profitable sectors such as tourism, gaming, and construction; and the acute shortage and high price of available water supplies for irrigation (ESAL, 2008) are key factors attributed to the decline of sector. Periods of limited rainfall contributed to overgrazing of pastures and upper watershed areas by livestock.

60 Climate change vulnerability and impact

The sea turtle populations (Green turtle (Chelonia Malaria within the context of climate in the mydas); Hawksbill Turtle (Eretmochelys imbricate) Caribbean can be considered significant due to its and Leather Back (Dermochelys coriacea) in recent resurgence in several countries after near Antigua and Barbuda have been affected by the total eradication between 1958 and 1965. destruction of critical nesting and foraging Between 2001 and2009 Antigua and Barbuda had habitats because of coastal construction, sand one recorded case of Malaria. Between 2001 and mining, pollution and over fishing (Environment 2009, there were 211,937 registered cases of Division, GOAB, 2009b). dengue fever in the Caribbean (ECLAC, 2011). It is projected that transmission of dengue fever in the Invasive species threaten the biodiversity within Caribbean will increase approximately threefold Antigua and Barbuda. For example the increased temperatures reduced the time for the biodiversity of the Wallings area, an important parasite to incubate in mosquitoes,, resulting in forest reserve area, is threatened by invasive more rapid transmission of the disease. In species such as Lemon grass, goats, Indian addition, greater occurrences of dengue fever in Mongoose and the Black Rat (Rattus Rattus) the warmer, drier period of the first and second (GOAB, 2009b). In 2010, citronella grass, was one years of El Niño events have been recorded of the most critical invasive species in Antigua and (ECLAC, 2011). Barbuda because it covered over 345 acres of land, which threatened native species and Tropical island nations like those of the Caribbean exacerbated the problems experienced by region have weather conducive to the farmers (Banhan & Lewis, 2013). transmission of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever (IPCC, 2014) (Figure 33). There are 3.2.4 Health conditions indications that the wet season represented the period of greater risk for dengue fever Many small island states suffer from climate transmission in the Caribbean. Drought conditions sensitive health problems, including morbidity, for example have contributed to water shortages, mortality from extreme weather events and which have resulted in increased risk of the certain vector, food and water-borne diseases. transmission of diseases such as cholera, typhoid Extreme weather and climate events such as and bacterial dysentery. Risk of infection from tropical storms, storm surges, flooding and Cholera is influenced by temperature, drought can have both short-terms and long-term precipitation and accompanying changes in effects on human health including injuries, salinity die to freshwater water or the addition of increased disease transmission and health organic carbon or other nutrients. Heavy rainfall problems associated with deterioration of water promotes the transmission of pathogens when quality and quantity (IPCC, 2014). From a climate there is not secure disposal of faecal waste (IPCC, change perspective environmental health 2014). This could exacerbate the situation in management is of particular concern from a Antigua and Barbuda, where disposal of waste climate change due to the significant linkage into the marine environment has been a between various climate sensitive diseases and significant challenge for costal water quality the prevailing environmental conditions (GOAB, particularly after periods of heavy rainfall. 2009a).

61 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Figure 33: Number of Recorded Incidences of Dengue Fever in Antigua and Barbuda

Extreme variations in precipitation levels may living and working in poor ventilated areas. result in higher concentrations of pathogens in local water resources. Flood conditions can result Higher temperatures create more conducive in increased pest populations and contamination environment for the growth and development of of surface and groundwater (Simpson et al, 2012). some bacteriological and epidemiological agents. Increased flooding has also contributed to Specific vectors particularly rodents and biological contamination of water sources and an mosquitoes are capable of adapting and even expansion of the habitat of vectors such as the thriving in warmer conditions, therefore Aedes aegypti mosquito. The results from an increasing the possibility of the spread of various epidemic potential model run based on several communicable and infectious diseases (GOAB, scenarios of temperature changes (baseline, +1°C, 2009a). +2°C and +4°C), indicated that the transmission of dengue fever was dependent upon both There is a growing concern among island temperature and precipitation as well as communities in the Caribbean that freshwater temperature alone. Therefore, Antigua and scarcity, more intense droughts and storms could Barbuda is expected to be at risk from increased lead to a deterioration in standards of sanitation incidences of vector borne diseases such as Yellow and hygiene (IPCC, 2014) There are considerable Fever and Dengue Fever (Solomon et al, 2011) challenges to environmental health management, (Figure 33). which include improper disposal of solid waste and the rapid increase in waste volumes. The projected changes in temperature of Increased precipitation, combined with low water approximately 1.5oC - 2.0oC by 2030 and 2050 table and the percentage of the population, which could alter average temperature. The heat stress use pit latrines, increased the chance of generated by altered average temperatures could contamination from sewage systems. A major serve as a major source of morbidity or mortality concern is the contamination of underground for high-risk groups. These high-risk groups water storage from sewage by salmonella, include: the elderly, persons with cardiac and gastroenteritis, shigellosis and campylobacter respiratory problems, persons working outdoors, (Simpson et al, 2012). and engaged in strenuous activity, and persons

62 Climate change vulnerability and impact

3.2.5 Ecosystem Services Coral Reef Collaboration, 2012). It is anticipated that coral reefs in Antigua and Barbuda will Coral reefs are shallow-water ecosystems that experience thermal stress severe enough to cause play an important role in the tropics, housing high bleaching every year after 2040. In addition, levels of biological diversity as well as providing ocean acidification is projected to contribute to key ecosystem goods and services such as fish the decline of ~10% in coral calcification by 2040 breeding ground, coastal protection, and (Australia Caribbean Coral Reef Collaboration, appealing environments for tourism. Communities 2012). in tropical small islands such as Antigua and Barbuda derive benefits including food, The impact of costal tourism and other uses on livelihoods, construction materials, medicine, wetlands is one of the major land and cultural value and tourism opportunities from environmental issues facing Antigua and Barbuda. them (IPCC, 2014). Therefore, the well-being of Jolly Pond in Antigua is one of the major wetland island communities within the Caribbean is linked systems that were dredged and landfilled to the coral reefs’ continuous function and create Jolly Harbour Marina and adjoining lands productivity. for real estate development (GENIVAR, 2011).

Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable Like coral reefs, mangroves and sea grass ecosystems and approximately more than 50% of environments provide a range of ecosystem goods the world’s reefs are under medium or high risk of and services and both ecosystems play a degradation. A wide range of climatic and non- significant role in the wellbeing of small island climatic drivers affects coral reefs and negative communities. Mangroves in particular serve as a impacts have been observed. The abundance of series of commercial and subsistence uses as well coral species that build reefs is in rapid decline as providing natural costal protection from and has decreased by over 80% on many erosion and storm events (IPCC, 2014). Caribbean reefs. Various studies highlighted changes in wetland Coral reefs in Antigua and Barbuda are in poor coverage in Antigua and Barbuda. In 1980, condition due to: wetlands covered 11% of Antigua and Barbuda. In 1991, it was estimated that wetlands covered only 3% in Antigua and 22% in Barbuda (GOAB, 2013a).  impacts from high sedimentation; Between 1980 and 1995, dry forest and swamp  over fishing; areas in Barbuda covered 7,900 ha and  destruction by the anchoring of boats; mangroves a further 3,729 ha, most of which is  improper placements of fish traps; contained within the Codrington lagoon (Cooper  improper disposal of garbage; & Bowen, 2001). In 2004 the wetland coverage for  breakage by recreational diving and Antigua was 3.22% (902 ha) and 5.04% (897 ha) in  the release of partly treated sewage from Barbuda (GOAB, 2010). In 2005, Food and coastal developments (GOAB, 2009b). Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimated that wetland coverage in Antigua was reduced to 700 In addition to these impacts, climate change has ha (GOAB, 2013a). exacerbated the situation and climbing global temperatures has resulted in bleaching events in Antigua and Barbuda (GOAB, 2009b). The 2005 bleaching event resulted in average coral cover being reduced from 16% to 7% by 2007. In addition, although previous extensive stands of elkhorn coral (Acropora palmate) existed only a few small colonies remain (Australia Caribbean

63 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Mangrove forests in Antigua and Barbuda are mostly threatened by increased hotel and marine infrastructure on the coastline, which has contributed to the loss of red, white, and black mangrove forest species (GOAB, 2009b). The rate of decrease of the red mangrove forest is approximately 3-5% per annum. However, the threat to the red mangrove forest is more widespread in Antigua than Barbuda (GOAB, 2009b).

Some of the general threats to the mangrove and wetlands include:

 over grazing by livestock, including sheep, cattle, donkey and goats;  pollution due to excessive nutrient or sewage discharge into coastal water and the unregulated and excessive use of pesticides; and  physical and human activities (GOAB, 2013a).

Past efforts to protect the Codrington Lagoon were minimal at best (GOAB, 2009b). However, due to increase awareness about climate change, renewed efforts have been undertaken to prioritise the protection of such critical natural ecosystems (GOAB, 2009b).

Wetlands in Antigua and Barbuda are usually located near to attractive beaches, which are considered favourable for erecting marinas, hotels, and golf courses by developers. As a result, the sale prices of wetlands often do reflect its true value to the protection of fisheries and coastal erosion. As a result, wetlands are often sold as cheap real estate (Cooper & Bowen, 2001). Unfortunately, the Fig Tree Reservoir, part of Walling Forest appears to be unable to provide adequate habitat for several songbirds such as the American Redstart, Louisiana Thrush, and various warblers (Mitchell, 2009).

64 Climate change vulnerability and impact

Table 6 – Stakeholder assessment of the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, and health in Antigua and Barbuda

4 Adaptive Capacity

4.1.1 Natural Capital 66 4.1.2 Social Capital 67 4.1.3 Economic Capital 69 4.1.4 Human Capital 70 4.1.5 Political and Legislative Capital 72

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Adaptive capacity is the ability of the country to system in Antigua and Barbuda has already been adjust to climate variability and extremes, to devastated by natural (hurricanes droughts) and reduce potential damages, take advantage of anthropogenic impacts (pollution and physical opportunities, and manage the repercussions. destruction). The current state of the mangrove Adaptive capacity represents potential rather system increases its risk to climate change, which than actual adaptation and therefore reduces a has and will continue to affect this ecosystem system’s vulnerability to hazards occurring in the (Gore-Francis, 2013). future or to hazards that involve slow change over relatively long periods (Adger et al, 2004). Within Increased temperatures due to climate change the climate change asset adaptation framework have affected the productivity of the coastal areas the following classes of capital: natural, social, (GOAB, 2009a). The main impacts of climate economic, human and political capital underpin change on the coastal zone include: adaptive capacity.  inundation of beaches and other coastal 4.1.1 Natural Capital lands;  increased coastal erosion; increased Natural capital is constantly changing, and its submergence and siltation of sea grass beds; productivity can be enhanced or degraded  coral reef degradation mainly as a result of through human and other influences. Land bleaching; adverse impacts to human productivity, availability of water resources and settlements and infrastructure due to the level of biodiversity significantly influence increase storm activity and intensified natural adaptive capacity. For example, the associated storm surge; and adaptive capacity of farmers (sustaining their  destruction and loss of mangroves, wetlands, livelihoods) is dependent on the amount of and structural changes in the fishery sector ( natural capital, which they have access to (Nelson GOAB, 2009a). et al, 2007). Therefore, the ability of these ecosystems to The conservation and sustainable use of sustain other biological resources from which terrestrial and marine ecosystems is critical for livelihoods are derived are reduced. maintaining the natural capital and increasing the adaptive capacity. Conservation initiatives The establishment of protected areas was one contribute to increase knowledge about species management strategy to ensure resource abundance, location, and habitat requirements, protection, maintenance of scenic and historic which all add to the adaptive capacity of the landscapes, recreation, and sustainable country (GENIVAR, 2011). The sustainable use of development (GENIVAR, 2011). This management the existing biodiversity within Antigua and strategy can contribute to restoring and Barbuda significantly contributes to the present maintaining the natural adaptive capacity of and future quality of life even within the Antigua and Barbuda impending threat of climate change (GOAB, 2013a). Protected areas are recognized robust systems of biodiversity conservation and therefore help to Combating environmental degradation is of manage the unavoidable threat of climate change critical importance to adaptive capacity because a as these natural ecosystems serve as carbon sinks substantial resource base is necessary to support and resources for adaptation. Protected areas and sustain the related economic activity. contribute to the composition, structure and Ecosystems such as sea grass beds, mangroves functioning of the ecosystem well beyond their and wetlands already under stress from physical own borders and provides ecosystem services for impacts are already demonstrating impacts from disaster reduction, water supply, food and public climate change (GOAB, 2012a). The mangrove

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health, all of which enable community based established governance structures and support adaptation (Dudley et al, 2010). from local communities.

In addition, the Ridge to Reef Project funded by The Sustainable Island Resource Management GEF focused on the rehabilitation of the same Mechanism (SIRMM) Project, which was areas with the aim of protecting the water undertaken in collaboration with the GEF, drainage system from erosion of mud and silt involved the establishment of demonstration (GOAB, 2012d). The main aim of the Ridge to Reef sites, the use of various technologies and the Demo Project was to establish an integrated construction of bench terraces as firebreaks and management plan for the south-western region for soil erosion (GOAB, 2012d). The SIRMM that incorporates both marine and forest reserves Project will contribute significantly to the adaptive and protects the key biodiversity assets and capacity because its aim is to develop and functional habitats within this environmentally implement a comprehensive cross-sectoral sensitive area (Clovis, 2010). The successful ecosystem approach that enhances ecosystem implementation Ridge to Reef Project will functionality, biodiversity conservation and increase the adaptive capacity of the communities sustainable livelihoods. The approach that is in the south-western region due to the financial employed under the SIRMM Project will considers benefits and livelihood created (country side the island’s ecosystems and its marine and tours) which will be obtained from conservation terrestrial resources as a capital asset, which if of key habitats, species and cultural land marks. properly managed and protected, will continue to yield a flow of vital goods and services such as Antigua and Barbuda has recently established a water, productivity, physical shelter, adaptive System Plan for the development and capacity and resilience necessary for sustainable management of protected area and has revised economic development. Improving the their National Biodiversity Strategy and Action management and sustainable use of the Plan (NBSAP), which served as the long-term plan ecosystem resources and alleviating the multiple for sustainable use of biodiversity in Antigua and stressors on the environment increases the Barbuda (Gore-Francis, 2013). The NBSAP would island’s natural capacity to combat climate foster partnerships between Government, change. communities, non-governmental organisations and the private sector which would contribute to 4.1.2 Social Capital the greater protections of these essential services and contribute significantly to the natural Social capital is an important element of coping adaptive capacity. The National Office of Disaster with climate change and climate variability as it Service (NODS) in collaboration with the GEF, determines the social network cognitive created an Environmental Sensitivity Map, which elements, culture, and relationships between constituted part of the Environmental Information community members and social groups. Despite Management and Advisory System (EIMAS) (Gore- the fact that a person’s adaptive capacity is Francis, 2013). The Environmental Sensitivity dependent on their access to resources and ability Index Map is integral to adaptation in Antigua and to use them effectively, the adaptive capacity of a Barbuda as it would be possible to highlight the society is highly dependent on the ability to act locations of ecological resources in the country collectively to address the threats posed by while at the same time creating spatial maps to climate change and climate variability. Population assess the vulnerability to hazards. The EIMAS and size relative to land area, the structure of society, the Environment Sensitivity Map is essential for age stratification of the population, employment monitoring, verification, and reporting, which are rate, and access to resources are all factors that critical increasing adaptive capacity. The EIMAS, if influence social capital (Adger et al, 2004). effectively implemented can ensure that ecosystems are maintaining a good capacity, possess efficient management, effective and

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The existing social networks and social cohesion Population density is one factor, which are critical for coping with adversity and change. determines the outcome of vulnerability to Social networks are important to ensuring climate change and climate variability. More resilience to climate change that is derived from densely populated areas have increase expose to dependence upon and reciprocity with small hydro meteorological hazards, because a larger social groups of people (Mendis et al, 2003). percentage of people are exposed. Therefore, human and financial resources would have to be Based on the 2011 National Housing Census the allocated for areas with higher population national population density was 776.5 people per densities. The significant growth in St. John Rural square miles in Antigua and 29.2 people per is evidence of the continued de-urbanisation of square miles in Barbuda, which is significantly the population that has been a trend over the higher than it was in 2001 when the population past 20 years (Statistics Division, 2012) (Figure density was 688.0 people per square miles in 34). Antigua and 23.2 per square miles in Barbuda.

Figure 34: Population Density by Parish for Antigua and Barbuda

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The unemployment rate in Antigua and Barbuda 4.1.3 Economic Capital based on the 2011 National Census was 10.2%. The indigent population was estimated at 5% of Economic capital includes the financial resources the population, constituting 4.4% of the of a country along with the built infrastructure households in the country. The poverty line was and the economic condition of the population. estimated at EC$ 6318.00 (US$ 2366.00) per The economic condition of a population is annum. 18.4% of the population fell below the considered a strong determinant of adaptive poverty line, indicating that 18.4% of the capacity and as a result, economically population is unable to meet basic needs. disadvantaged individuals and communities are Therefore, it is estimated that the cumulative especially vulnerable to environmental change. At total of 28.3% of the population is estimated to be the national level, the available financial at risk. The poorest districts are St. John’s City resources to address climate change can affect (22%) and St. John’ s rural (8%); followed by St. most aspects of adaptive capacity. Therefore, the Philip (26%); St Paul (16%); St. Peter (15%); St. overall economic wealth of a country will Mary (14%); St. George (12%) and Barbuda (11%). determine national level monitoring, adaptation Poverty and unemployment is directly linked to strategies, resources to respond to vulnerability as grater income allows spending on environmental, and climate changes (Mendis, et adaptation planning, therefore contributing to a al, 2003). reduction in adaptive capacity. Unemployment and poverty also limits access to resources and Antigua and Barbuda is categorised as middle- social services and increases the difficulty in income developing country (Simpson et al, 2012) sustaining a livelihood. Many of these residents which has a direct impact on its adaptive capacity. within communities with high levels of poverty St. John’s City is the national urban centre. All had to go outside of the communities to access Saints and Codrington serve as sub-national social services. There are few non-governmental centres. Parham, the English Harbour and organisations and community based organisation Flamouth area, Old Read and Bolans serve as that organise programmes to assist residents, but special-development settlements where there are participation in these programmes are not very various mixed concentrations of tourism, high. heritage, fishing, agricultural, residential, commercial and recreational activities Social capital is a critical component of adaptive (UNHABITAT, 2011). The main economic challenge capacity as networks and partnerships between for Antigua and Barbuda which limits its adaptive stakeholders and agencies within communities capacity is limited economic resilience due to allow for collaboration in developing integrated dependence on one main economic driver, and built-faceted adaptation strategies. The tourism and increasing national debt as a relationships among the rural communities are percentage of GDP which exceeds 100% (GOAB, relatively good. For example, Ebenezer is a close 2012b). knit community; Wilikies possess a strong community spirit and the Piggotts community is The financial resources of Antigua and Barbuda, considered to be a family community as majority which have a significant impact on adaptive of the residents are related. The existing social capacity, is evident in the money supply. Between networks and social cohesion are critical for September 2012 and September 2013 the money coping with adversity and change. Social networks supply increased by 5.7% to US $2.9 billion. One are important to ensuring resilience to climate of the major contributors to this is an 8.8% change that is derived from dependence upon increase in private sector savings deposits from and reciprocity with small social groups of people approximately US $1.1 billion in September 2012 (Mendis et al, 2003). to US $1.1 billion in September 2013.

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Private sector demand deposits and private sector In 2013, there were 1,800 beneficiaries of the foreign currency deposits grew by 22.5% and PBP, which mainly consisted of single mothers, 14.8% respectively. With the start of the tourist senior citizens who do not receive and pension season in 2013 it was anticipated that the money and person with disabilities (GOAB, 2013b). In supply would continue to expand as a result of addition, in 2014, the Government of Japan, increased foreign currency deposits and currency through its Grants Assistance for Grassroots in circulation associated with enhanced activity in Human Security Projects, supported local non- the tourism sector (GOAB, 2014b). governmental organisations or community based organisations in small development projects. In 2013, Antigua and Barbuda experienced robust Priority sectors for the Grassroots Human Security growth in construction activity, which had positive Projects include education; primary health; spin-off effects on financial services, real estate, vocational training; special education; agriculture; and transportation sectors, adding significantly to public welfare; and the environment (GOAB, its economic capital. In addition, there was 2014b). The interventions in relation to the significant public investment in critical economic Economic Action Plan and the Social infrastructure, including roads and airport Transformation Programme implemented by the expansion (CBD, 2013). The adaptive capacity of government have helped to generate some the fisheries sector is expected to increase due to economic activity and maintained the social safety the Fisheries Complex Refurbishment Project nets that provide crucial relief to the vulnerable in being undertaken in 2014 in collaboration with society. the Government of Japan (GOAB, 2014b). 4.1.4 Human Capital In 2013, the built infrastructure as it relates to education was improved and increased. An Human Capital is the skills, education, amount of US $24.5 million from the Caribbean experiences, and general abilities of individuals Development Bank (CDB) was approved for within a community or country. The collection and Antigua and Barbuda to enhance instructional dissemination of relevant and current information effectives and expand opportunities for children and the number of skilled and trained personal to complete primary and secondary school. In also influences adaptive capacity (Mendis et al, addition, US $13.4 million was approved to 2003). provide the physical infrastructure required to achieve universal secondary education access, as A capability assessment conducted by well as to enhance instructional effectives and Organisation of American States (OAS) in 2001 leadership of the schools and the education revealed that 27% (6) of a total of 22 government system (CDB, 2013). institutions in Antigua and Barbuda were involved in disaster mitigation activities while 14% (3) were Other projects that have benefitted the people of involved in the preparation, response and Antigua and Barbuda include US $622,000.00 for recovery stages of the disaster management fencing and drainage work at the King George V process (OAS, 2001). The study further revealed Grounds; US $1.1 million to provide relief to that 100% of the 22 government agencies citizens and residents affected by Hurricane Omar interviewed indicated that that institutional and US $1.5 million to support the sweeping and capacity for dealing with disaster management dredging of the Nevis Street pier (GOAB, 2014b). was inadequate (OAS, 2001).

In order to improve the economic condition of the population in 2008 the GOAB launched the Peoples Senior Citizens Utility Subsidy Programme (SCUSP) and Benefit Programme (PBP) in 2009.

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The common inadequacies, which were identified In 2007 based on the United Nations by capability assessment as it relates to Development Programme (UNDP) Human institutional capacity, included: Development Index (HDI) Antigua and Barbuda was in 57th position among 182 countries, as  lack of suitable policy framework for disaster result of the substantial investments in education management; and health over the last quarter of the century  weak institutional and administrative and given the relatively high per capita income structures; that was achieved. This position in 2007 placed  lack of capability to plan, implement and Antigua and Barbuda as the second highest monitor a disaster mitigation programme; ranked in the OECS after St. Kitts.  ineffective institutional coordination systems and inadequate financial and human The adult literacy rate was estimated at 98.4% resources for conducting disaster mitigation based on the 2001 Census (GOAB, 2012b). planning and Universal primary education in Antigua and  weak implementation capacity and weak Barbuda is free and compulsory (GOAB, 2009a). linkages between government and the Education facilities are widely available in Antigua private sector (OAS, 2001). and Barbuda and attempts to improve the existing standard has been undertaken in order to develop Currently NODS through the operations of the human resources. National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) is the organisation in Antigua and Barbuda with the The position of the population in relation to the responsibility of addressing disaster issues. NODS poverty line played a significant role in is the umbrella body for the disaster services determining their adaptive capacity based on within the various districts, which were headed by financial resources (UN-HABITAT, 2011). The district coordinators (UN-HABITAT, 2011). Various GOAB (2011) indicated that increasing poverty organisations and agencies that have a portfolio eroded the ability of poorer people, especially within the National Disaster Plan include: younger people to take advantage of educational and training opportunities. Despite the existence  Red Cross, of social service agencies, their interventions have  Fire Brigade, not been well coordinated which affects the  Royal Police Force, ability and success in addressing health issues  Defence Force, (GOAB, 2011).

 Coast Guard, There have been instances of capacity and  Shipping Agents, institutional building. The GEF assisted the  Central Board of Health and Antigua and Barbuda with the development of a  Mount St. John’s Medical Centre (UN- Geographical Information System (GIS) based HABITAT, 2011). platform in order to map environmental and

socio-economic amenities (UN-HABITAT, 2011). With regards to legal capability, the general Five key government agencies utilise the enforcement of the Act and Regulations related to Environmental Information Management, which addressing environmental issues was weak due to included: the lack of consideration of mitigation planning in development decision making and inadequate  the Environmental Division, administrative structure and technical human  Development Control Authority, resources involved in enforcement of the Acts and  Survey Division, Regulations . There is room for improvement as it  related to the political will and support for NODS and activities associated with natural hazard  the National Parks Authority (UN-HABITAT, mitigation policy and plan. 2011).

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Environmental health already presents significant Division of the APUA would be responsible for the challenges for health managers and climate management of the Antigua and Barbuda Drought change would affect various aspects of the Management Plan. APUA and the Antigua and environmental health portfolio. As a result, the Barbuda Meteorological Office would monitor the GOAB emphasised the need to strengthen the indicators of drought established within the plan. national capabilities for the health managers in APUA would be guided by the ‘Response Plan’ order to perform their duties effectively (GOAB, developed for response to varying levels of 2009a). drought (AUPA, 2010).

4.1.5 Political and Legislative The drought indicators included:

Capital  Raw Water Availability from the Potworks and other Reservoirs; Adaptive capacity is dependent on the extent to  Rainfall and other metrological data; which institutions are robust enough to attend to  El Niño Effect; and the needs of diverse stakeholders and foster their  Water Demand Greater than Normal (AUPA, engagement in adaptation decisions and actions 2013). (IPCC, 2014). National Scale policies have a significant influence on the well-being of the Environmental initiatives within the legislative vulnerable groups within society. Investment in framework have contributed to increasing the critical areas such as education, healthcare, and natural adaptive capacity of Antigua and Barbuda. physical infrastructure will also affect adaptive Sustainable Island Resource Management Zoning capacity by determining opportunities for Plan (SIRMZP) (2012) functioned as the vulnerability reduction and adaptation (Adger et overarching guide for national development al, 2004). (Gore-Francis, 2013). The objectives of SIRMZP included: The existence of effective legislation, regulation, programmes and plan that address socio-  improving the country’s socio-economic base; economic and environmental issues have a direct  reforming the public sector; impact on the political adaptive capacity of  sustaining and conserving the country’s Antigua and Barbuda. A Draft Integrated Water biodiversity; Resource Management (IWRM) Strategy and Draft  reducing the national debt to sustainable Management Plan was prepared in order to levels; reduce the discharge of pollutants and restore  watersheds and establish watersheds protection. reducing poverty; reducing vulnerability to natural disasters; and However, the implementation of the IWRM  strengthening community relationships and Strategy has encountered legal and political issues  improving private and public sector as well as commitment issues (Simpson et al, partnerships (Gore-Francis, 2013). 2012) and therefore provides evidence of weak political capital. Antigua and Barbuda has also undertaken the Capacity Building for Environment Management in The Antigua and Barbuda Drought Management Antigua and Barbuda Strategy and Action Plan Plan was initiated to provide water restriction 2007-2012 which included that preparation of a implementation procedures. The Drought draft Environment Management Act (Simpson et Management Plan is expected to be enacted al, 2012). This act established the Department of objectively and speedily to preserve the health the Environment as the chief executive agency and general welfare of the population of Antigua responsible for the units of climate change and and Barbuda (Antigua Public Utilities Authority ozone depletion. (APUA), 2010). It was proposed that the Water

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The act makes provision for the sustainable and Policy, which is designed to address six management of waste, forestry and water quality thematic areas, which include: (Simpson et al, 2012).  tourism management; The National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) in  capacity building; 2010 served as the strategic framework, which  marketing; would guide the macroeconomic, structural and  transportation; social policies and programmes that would be  environment linkages; and pursued from 2011-2015. The idea was that the  health, safety and security (Gore-Francis, NPRS would provide the basis for National 2013). Economic and Social Transformation (NEST) Plan 2010-2014 by refining key strategies that are in The Tourism Strategic Policy and Plan promotes place, identifying the gaps and supplementing the increase public and private sector participation existing intervention with new ones (GOAB, and commitment to assist with achieving their 2012a). NEST is considered a more comprehensive objective to maximise the social and economic approach to poverty reduction in Antigua and benefits of the tourism industry (GOAB, 2013a). Barbuda, which was developed with the aim of Through the implementation of donor, funded economic rebalancing (GOAB, 2012a). projects the Government of Antigua and Barbuda is establishing co-management approaches and The Ministry of Agriculture of Antigua and linkages with community base groups for eco- Barbuda in 2009 formulated a National Food tourism products (Gore-Francis, 2013). Production Plan in order to strengthen the country’s capacity for food production to ensure The Government of Antigua and Barbuda through national food security. In 2012 the National Food its 2013 Budget Address provided their support to and Nutrition Security Policy was issued, which launch a Green Tourism Initiative Programme with focused primarily on availability, accessibility, the aim of assisting tourism operators with the consumption and stability of supply. The National assessment and reduction of the environmental Food and Nutrition Security Policy highlighted issues which affect them (Gore-Francis, 2013). priority areas, which included: capacity building, Elements within this programme include: legislation and the protection and conservation of water and land resources (Gore-Francis, 2013).  the adoption and implementation of energy efficient and renewable technology within In addition, legislation was enacted to make buildings; owners more responsible for their livestock  application of water conservation strategies; through an enforceable system of animal promoting and registration. In addition branding and tagging of  facilitating integrated waste management livestock has been promoted by the Livestock and the development of ‘green’ policies and Division to facilitate easy identification of loose procedures (Gore-Francis, 2013). livestock, which may be responsible for damaging property and protected vegetation (Mitchell, Since 2010, Antigua and Barbuda was in the 2009). The Environmental Awareness Group (EAG) process of developing a National Disaster in collaboration with Caribbean Natural Resources Management Plan (The World Bank, 2010). There Institute (CANARI) implemented a project aimed are some issues with enforcing elements of at increasing public awareness and developing disaster risk within the law, which included: recommendations for managing and controlling the islands’ goat population (Mitchell, 2009).  limited human resources coupled with

inadequate technical expertise; With the assistance of regional partners the  ambiguous legal framework; and Government of Antigua and Barbuda is currently developing a National Sustainable Tourism Plan

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 over lapping mandates between various The Environment Division in Antigua and Barbuda agencies which lead to ineffective use of is in the process of formulating a draft policy resources and disunity (UN-HABITAT, 2011). aimed at addressing the adverse impacts of climate change on the coastline and the Antigua and Barbuda has also undertaken the watersheds (UN-HABITAT, 2011). In addition, the Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Draft Environment Protection Management Bill, strategy of the Caribbean Disaster Management which was initially developed in 2005, was Agency (CDEMA) in their recent policy presented before cabinet in September 2013 for development and planning has contributed to enactment (Gore-Francis, 2013). ensuring that greater emphasis is placed on identifying hazards and have focused increased In the absence of a specific statutory basis of efforts on community level interventions requiring an Environmental Impact Assessment (Simpson et al, 2012). (EIA) in Antigua and Barbuda, a new Physical Planning Act has been prepared and formally As early as 2005 emphasis has been placed on the established an EIA process (DFATD, SPREP and need for climate change considerations to be CARICOM, 2005). For the integration of climate integrated into all aspects of natural hazard change adaptation into the EIA process in Antigua management and to become a key part of the and Barbuda, some of the recommendations physical planning process (DFATD, SPREP and included: CARICOM, 2005). A Policy Framework for Integrated (Adaptation) Planning and  revision of the definition of EIA under the Management, which served as guide adaptation Physical Planning Act to adequately consider to climate change, was initiated (James, 2002, climate change; Simpson et al, 2012 and GOAB, 2013a). There are  the establishment of a formal EIA process to 7 sectors, which are highlighted within this Policy provide clarity and certainty and also a Framework, which include: framework for regulation and management of the EIAs;  agriculture,  provision of comprehensive criteria for  health, screening and scoping environmental impact  tourism, ensuring that significant climate change  energy, impacts are identified;  biodiversity, water, and  provision of clear guidelines for the  human settlements (Simpson et al, 2012). preparation of the EIA report confirming that climate change impacts are addressed and In the past Antigua and Barbuda has lacked the  provision of a clear criteria governing the EIA ability to comply fully with all the requirements of experts guaranteeing that the individuals the United Nations Convention on Climate Change possess the required qualification, technical (UNFCCC) and the Barbados’ Programme of Action ability and knowledge on climate change and due to: adaptation policies and measures (DFATD, SPREP and CARICOM, 2005).  the lack of effective institutions and systems;  ineffective waste management systems to combat the impact of pollution on marine and terrestrial ecosystems and  lack of available financial resources to development and implement coastal zone management plans (UN-HABITAT, 2011).

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The Government of Antigua and Barbuda adopted the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISRD), which has led to initiatives such as hospital safety. Undertaking hospital safety from disasters as a health and climate change adaptation would involve structural modifications and human resource development, which would in turn require political commitment and financial resources (GOAB, 2009a).

A National Food Production Plan was formulated in 2009, in order to strengthen the country’s capacity for food production to ensure national food security (Gore-Francis, 2013). In 2011 the FAO indicated that the poverty estimates for Antigua and Barbuda has decreased to 9% due to the partnership entered into by the Ministry of Agriculture and the FAO to undertake steps to reduce extreme poverty in Antigua and Barbuda (UN-HABITAT, 2011. In 2012 the National Food and Nutrition Security Policy was issued, which focused primarily on availability, accessibility, consumption and stability of supply. The priority areas in the National Food and Nutrition Security Policy included capacity building, legislation and the protection and conservation of water and land resources (Gore-Francis, 2013).

The main economic and political challenges for Antigua and Barbuda which directly affects its adaptive capacity includes limited economic resilience due to dependence on one main economic driver, tourism, and increasing national debt as a percentage of GDP. With regards to legal capability the general enforcement of the policies and regulations related to environment issues mitigation have been weak as mitigation planning was not integrated into development decision making and inadequate administrative structure and technical human resources were involved in enforcement of the policies and regulations. However, the recently formulated and implemented environmental initiatives within the legislative framework have contributed to increasing the natural adaptive capacity of Antigua and Barbuda.

5 National Scale Adaptation Options

77 National Scale Adaptation Options

Focal Area Adaptation Option Key Issues Necessary Action Additional Information Ecosystem Based Increase Management One of the national  Efforts and resources  The main objective of this Effectiveness of Marine vulnerability and adaptation should be geared towards project is to improve the Adaptation Options Protected Areas- Sustainable priorities for 2014-2016 committing and successfully management effectiveness of Financing and Management identified at the Inception completing the Sustainable protected area networks of Eastern Caribbean Marine Workshop for the Third Financing and Management across the Eastern Caribbean Ecosystem Project (2011- National Communication to of Eastern Caribbean Marine (OECS, 2009). 2016). the UNFCCC and again Ecosystem Project (2011- reiterated that the National 2016).  The project not only Stakeholder Consultation for demonstrates synergies with this project is the  A similar programme VIAAC project but also with establishment and proper should be formulated for Antigua and Barbuda’s management of marine woodland and forested areas Government adaptation protected areas in Antigua in Antigua and Barbuda, to agenda. and Barbuda. increase its resilience to climate change and other  The project achieves this human activities. aim by increasing the resilience of coastal and marine ecosystems to climate change through the creation of effectively managed and protected areas that improve coral health and ecosystem integrity.

 Component 3 of the Sustainable Financing and Management of Eastern Caribbean Marine Ecosystem Project is of significant importance to Antigua and Barbuda.

 Component 3 consolidates and strengthens the

78 National Scale Adaptation Options management and effectiveness of existing protected marine and coastal protected areas but also ensures that all priority ecosystems in Antigua and Barbuda will be included in the marine protected area network (OECS, 2009). - The status of the Protected - Effective implementation of  An effective Protected  The purpose of the Systems Area Plan developed the Protected Systems Areas Systems Area Plan will Protected Systems Area Plan in 2010 needs to be Plan (2010) contribute to the operations was to create and clarify determined and effectively and effectiveness of the mechanisms for improved implemented system, measures and management of Protected capacity needs critical to Areas at the national and site ensure effective levels. implementation should be established These include:

o Establish and provide the minimum institutional structure (including staffing) required for effectively implementing the plan

o Adequately trained staff to effectively implement the articles of the plan

o Provide adequate monitoring infrastructure, equipment and materials to ensure compliance to the plan

o Develop partnerships

79 National Scale Adaptation Options with other stakeholder for the conduct of monitoring and evaluation of activities as stipulated by the plan

o Increase awareness of the plan. Disaster Risk Agriculture Disaster Risk  Natural hazards and  The development,  Two approaches can be Management (ADRM) Plan climate change have establishment and used to develop the ADRM Reduction devastating impacts on the implementation of the ADRM for Antigua and Barbuda, agriculture economy in plan. which includes that CDM Antigua and Barbuda, approach or plans based on  In order for the effective the priority areas for the  A study conducted by the establishment and Hyogo Framework of Action FAO in 2013 revealed that implementation of a ADRM (HFA). Antigua and Barbuda plan a focal point or disaster reported an absence of an risk manager (DRM) within o The CDM approach Agriculture Disaster Risk the Ministry of Agriculture promoted by the CDEMA Management (ADRM) Plan needs to be identified and encourages the (Roberts, 2013). appointed. The focal point development of distinct and other stakeholders action plans for reducing within the agriculture sector risk at each phase of the should draft roadmap/action disaster cycle. This plans while at the same time approach to the securing technical and development of ADRM financial assistance to has been successful in operationalise the roadmap/ Jamaica (Roberts, 2013). action plans in order to eliminate technical and financial constraints o The other options for previously experienced. the development of the ADRM plan for Antigua  The success of the ADRM and Barbuda is one that plan is highly dependent on developed based on the its implementation. priority areas of the HFA Therefore, the institutional as was utilised in St. framework within the Lucia and Belize Ministry of Agriculture (Roberts, 2013).

80 National Scale Adaptation Options should be strengthened to Systematic piloting, support the implementation evaluation, and of the plan. In addition tools replication of best for monitoring and practices for Disaster evaluation of the ADRM plan Risk reduction (DRR) after it has been suited to the needs of implemented should be Antigua and Barbuda can identified and established to be used to determine determine the impact of the the most appropriate plan on risk management of articles with the ADRM the agriculture sector. Any plan. identified shortcomings through monitoring and evaluation should be addressed. Agriculture Early Warning Many people whose  Of tremendous assistance  The FAO in collaboration System (AEWS): Prediction livelihood is dependent on to the farming, community is with Caribbean Community and Planning the agriculture and fisheries the enhancement of climate (CARICOM) Secretariat is in sector already pay close prediction tools. the process of developing a attention to daily weather Regional Information and but if they could monitor  In order to build resilience Early Warning System for long-term climate to the recurring threats to Food and Nutrition Security information then they could the agriculture sector due to (ISFNS) 2012-2016. better plan for future climate climate change and natural change and variability to disaster a Local Agriculture  The Early Warning System make better-informed on- Early Warning Systems for Food and Nutrition farm management decisions. (AEWS) for Antigua and Security (ISFNS) 2012-2016 Barbuda should be developed by FAO and developed and a network of CARICOM is expected to focal points to disseminate construct risk profiles for the alerts to the agriculture region’s main crops in community in the vulnerable support of the emergency area should be set up. preparedness, agricultural risk management and crop  The government agencies insurance (CARICOM, 2011). and stakeholder within the agriculture sector in Antigua and Barbuda should support Early Warning System for

81 National Scale Adaptation Options Food and Nutrition Security, by ensuring the effective dissemination of the information provided as well as other available information from other available information from various projects through the establishment of the network of focal points.

 These focal points will succinctly communicate pertinent information to the agriculture and fisheries subsectors, which would inform their response strategies.

 Information from Caribbean Agro- meteorological Initiative (CAMI) (2010), Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN), launched in 2009 under the Caribbean Water Initiative (CARIWIN).and Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) could be communicated to people whose livelihoods are dependent on the agriculture and fisheries sector.

 Community-centred partnership approach can also be used as the method of information capacities for

82 National Scale Adaptation Options disseminating tailored climate information, early warning, and climate impact analysis in the agriculture and fisheries sectors, offer opportunities for sustainability and is consistent with best practices at both regional and international levels (Roberts, 2013).

 In addition, multiple media such as email notification and text messages, bulletins and newsletters could be used to regularly send information to farmers and fisher folk Financial Aid and Financial Agriculture and fisheries  The scope and feasibility of Risk Sharing Mechanism possess residual risk as a financial back-up and risk result of climate change or transfer mechanisms in the natural disasters agriculture and fisheries sector in Antigua and Barbuda as a mechanism for removing residual risk as a result of climate change or natural disasters should be assessed.

 This can be facilitated through the development and establishment of partnership with the credit union and other financial institutions (Roberts, 2013).

 The development of an incentive programme that encourages the productive

83 National Scale Adaptation Options sector to actively participate in implementing practices that adapt and mitigate to climate change should be undertaken.

 In the process of developing financial risk- sharing mechanisms Antigua and Barbuda, can seek support from the OECS and CARICOM, which could offer case studies, or models, which Antigua and Barbuda can follow. Insurance however is not a substitute for good production practices. Therefore, careful attention should be paid to crop mixes, financial savings, and price hedging (Wenner, 2005). Legislative and Enactment of the Integrated  The implementation of the  The working group made In 2011, Antigua and Barbuda Water Resource Integrated Water Resource up of the technocrats and the completed the IWRM road Regulatory Management Policy Management Strategy government agencies, which map, which included that Framework (IWRM) in the Caribbean formulated the IWRM should IWRM Visions and Policy Region has been little be re-established to Statement. The IWRM Policy progress toward providing a effectively advocate for the was submitted to the basis for institutional reform. urgent implementation of government for approval. In the IWRM policy. addition to the policy related  No Caribbean country has IWRM work, a demonstration yet implemented any  Denial, delay, or deferral of project addressed the impact significant IWRM proposals, the implementation of the of sewage overflows from other than a few catchment- IWRM Policy is not an option septic tanks on an important scale demonstration projects. for Antigua and Barbuda, coastal wildlife area (Global In addition no key linkages since the impacts of climate Water Partnership (GWP), between land and water change are already being felt. 2014) management had been integrated into policies and

84 National Scale Adaptation Options planning (Cashman, 2013).

 Specifically in Antigua and Barbuda, the IWRM Strategy has encounters legal and political issues as well as commitment issues (Simpson et al, 2012).

 At present water management in Antigua and Barbuda is still guided by the 1973 Public Utilities Act, under which responsibilities for water management are distributed across a number of agencies within government, including the Water Division in the Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA) (IWRM) (GWP, 2014). Revise and update the  The Health Policy for  There are significant In June 2014 a national National Health Policy for Antigua and Barbuda is synergies between climate consultation on Pan Antigua and Barbuda outdated and is not adequate change adaptation and American Health to meet the changing health health care initiatives Organisation’s (PAHO’s) draft situation due to threat of strategy on Universal Health climate change.  The output from draft Coverage for Antigua and strategy on Universal Health Barbuda was convened  The Health Policy for Coverage for Antigua and (Government of Antigua and Antigua and Barbuda was Barbuda consultation can be Barbuda, 2014c). created in 1997 and update utilised to revise and update in 1984. the National Health Strategy for Antigua and Barbuda.  The Health Policy was  Health policies and expected to serve as the programmes need to authority on health issues in integrate existing and Antigua and Barbuda for a projected climate related five year period until 2001. risks in order to curb these

85 National Scale Adaptation Options risks and establish an effective health adaptation strategy for Antigua and Barbuda.

 Human and financial resources should be invested in revising and updating the Health Policy for Antigua and Barbuda in order to integrate climate variability and climate change concerns into health and social plans and programmes.

 The revised and updated National Health policy can serve as an overarching guiding legislation, which would contribute to:

 the elimination of disjointed and weak annual planning process and predetermined budget allocations;

 strengthen decentralised health governance structures;

 strengthen community based health services and health facilities to adequately deal with emerging health concerns including those develop a system of enforcing regulation and

86 National Scale Adaptation Options ensuring quality Cross-sectoral Agri-tourism initiative and The agriculture sector in  To ensure economic  Agri-tourism is involves policy Antigua and Barbuda has sustainability Antigua and trips to an operational farm Linkages been experiencing economic Barbuda need to diversify or agribusiness operation as decline of the because of their agricultural operations, a recreational activity or sustainability issues, which by establishing linkages educational field trip. are exacerbated by climate between the agriculture and change., tourism sectors in the form  In 2010, the Government of of agri-tourism. Antigua and Barbuda appointed an agricultural  The results from the technician to the Ministry of analysis conducted by the Tourism to develop agri- agriculture technician tourism. The agricultural appointed to the Ministry of technician was responsible Tourism needs to be applied for the development for the in the staging of the farming analysis and development of process to create memorable the agri-tourism value chain, visitor experience in Antigua tourism experience creation, and Barbuda (Maynard & and product design (Maynard Dolly, 2011). & Dolly, 2011). The method for developing the agri-  The success of this agri- tourism product is the tourism endeavour is highly ‘staging’ of the farming dependent on capacity processes. building in agri-tourism. Some of the training  Due to the fact that in identified as necessary for Antigua and Barbuda agri- capacity building in agri- tourism is cross sectoral, tourism in Antigua and involving both the agriculture Barbuda includes: and tourism economies, modifications to the o product development production function of the and product definition, farm should be handled o marketing, carefully to maintain the o customer service, integrity of the core o rural tourism, agriculture production o the use of social media function, to avoid any in agri-tourism, compromise to either the o entrepreneurship, core or secondary functions.

87 National Scale Adaptation Options o on-farm visitor safety, o costing and pricing, and o management of groups (Maynard & Dolly, 2011).

 Capacity building for farmers, extension personnel in tourism and agriculture sector and taxi operators is also essential. Agriculture extension officers or rural advisory agents need to be re-trained to guide the agri- tourism farmers through their entrepreneurship undertakings.

 Effective farm and tourism management are key principles governing the success of the agri-tourism operation. The development and the implementation of an agri-tourism policy should be undertaken in order to serve as the guiding framework for this endeavour. Initiatives and programmes Climate change will  Adoption of technology and  Specifically the RRACC undertaken as part of the exacerbated the issues technical and capacity Project in Antigua and Reduce Risks to Human & affecting the agriculture building within the Barbuda seeks to: Natural Assets Resulting from industry which include: high agriculture Sector in order to Climate Change (RRACC) input cost; crop failure due to build resilience against o Build capacity and Project (2011-2015) pests and other climate change impacts capability of relevant environmental conditions should be undertaken. agencies in the area of and reduced access to both greenhouse technology local and global markets.  Efficient and cost-effective and irrigation

88 National Scale Adaptation Options technologies, which address technologies, which will high costs of production and help to reduce crop facilitate increases in failure where these may productivity, should be be vulnerable to changes adopted, maintained and in rainfall patterns; supported. o Promote the effective use of water in  The building of a agricultural greenhouse freshwater catchment at the practices; foot of the Highlands in o Increase the Barbuda under the RRACC availability of relevant project can be used as a pilot food products for the to determine the feasibility local market; of establishing other o Promote economic freshwater catchments in growth, employment for drought prone areas in the youth and reduce Antigua and Barbuda. import expenditure Establishing fresh water (OECS, 2011); catchments will have both o Promote sanitary rain environmental and economic water harvesting benefits. The catchment will techniques; help to: o Promote aquaponics; o reduce the threat of o Promote the building drought’ of more robust and o reduce soil erosion, resilient housing for o minimise turbidity of livestock; the sensitive costal o Promote agriculture ecological wetlands, and biodiversity o increase the resilience management; and of the agriculture sector o Encourage more to climate change (OECS, research on pest and 2014). disease management  From an economic (OECS, 2013) perspective, these catchments will help to: o enhance the farming potential o increase agricultural production,

89 National Scale Adaptation Options o re-establish markets, and o improve the sustainability of livelihoods within the of livelihoods within the agricultural sector (OECS, 2014).

 The areas in which technical and capacity building should be provided to agro-processors include: o new processing techniques; o sourcing of packaging and o labelling materials; o access to information o and promotion (Government of Antigua and Barbuda, 2012a). o new processing techniques; o sourcing of packaging and labelling materials; o packaging and labelling materials; o access to information on food safety standards; and product development and promotion (Government of Antigua and Barbuda, 2012a)

90 Conclusion

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