1 2 Executive Summary Table of Contents List of Figures List of Plates List of Tables List of Acronyms Executive Summary 1 INTRODUCTION 11 1.1 Project Background and Approach 12 1.2 Vulnerability Assessment Approach and Framework 13 1.3 Overview of Analysis Process 14 2 NATIONAL CONTEXT 15 2.1 Climate variability analysis 16 2.2 Socio-demographic Conditions 26 2.3 Governance and Institutional Arrangements 27 2.3.1 Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change 27 2.4 Changes in Economic Conditions 28 2.5 Land use change 32 2.6 Ecosystem Services 36 3 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT 39 3.1 Exposure 40 3.1.1 Increased climate variability 40 3.1.2 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 44 3.1.3 Sea level rise and storm surge 46 3.1.4 Flooding 49 3.1.5 Drought 53 3.2 Sensitivity to Current Variability and Future Change of Priority Sector 57 3.2.1 Water Resources 57 3.2.2 Food Security 59 3.2.3 Biodiversity 59 3.2.4 Health Conditions 60 3.2.5 Ecosystem Services 62 4 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 65 4.1.1 Natural Capital 66 4.1.2 Social Capital 67 4.1.3 Economic Capital 69 4.1.4 Human Capital 70 4.1.5 Political and Legislative Capital 72 5 NATIONAL SCALE ADAPTATION OPTIONS 76 6 REFERENCE 90 3 List of Figures Figure 1a REGATTA VIA Analysis Methodological Framework (REGATTA,2014) 13 Figure 1b Geographical location of Antigua and Barbuda 16 Figure 2 Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of Antigua 17 Monthly precipitation time series derived from a single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Figure 3 Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of Antigua from January 1979-October 2014 18 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated from monthly precipitation time series from a Figure 4 single NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) grid cell containing the island of 18 Antigua from January 1979-October 2014 Accumulated annual rainfall calculated from the remotely sensed NASA TRMM precipitation Figure 5 grid cell over the island of Antigua for 2009 , 2010, and the 1998-2009 climatology 18 Remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from January Figure 6 2001 to late December 2014 19 NDVI difference between December 2010 NDVI minus December 2009 NDVI for the islands of Figure 7 Antigua and Barbuda 19 Spatial correlation between July rainfall and the following December Nino 3.4 index Figure 8 Dry composite: 2001, 1989, 2007, 1999, 2003 20 Figure 9 Wet composite: 1987, 2004, 1993, 2012, 1981 21 Figure 10 Dry and wet early season rainfall composite meridonal wind (April and May) 21 Figure 11 1 month lead time April sea surface temperature anomalies from dry and wet April composites 22 Figure 12 1 month lead time April sea surface temperature anomalies from dry and wet May composites 23 Figure 13 Contribution to Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activity in Current Prices (%) for the year 24 Figure 14 2013 (ECCB, 2014) 28 Contribution to Gross Domestic Product by specific economic activity in current prices (%) for Figure 15 the period 2000-2013 and projected for 2014-2015 (ECCB, 2014) 29 Annual Tourism Expenditure (EC$M) between 2000 and 2013 Figure 16 Annual Trade (EC$Million)-Exports and Imports for 2000-2013 30 Figure 17 Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market price for 2000-2015 (2000-2013 actual and 30 Figure 18 2014-2015 projected) (ECCB, 2014) 31 Changes in specific land use between 1985 and 1995 (Environment Division, 2014) Figure 19 Changes in Total Cultivated Acreage between 2009-2013 32 Figure 20 Land use patterns for Antigua in 2010 33 Figure 21 Ecosystems of Antigua 35 Figure 22 Ecosystems of Barbuda 37 Figure 23 Monthly variation in maximum, minimum, and mean temperature (1995-2013). 37 Figure 24 (Meteorological Services, 2014) 43 Figure 25 Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR at Runaway Bay Beach, Antigua (Simpson et al, 2012) 47 Figure 26 Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR in Coco Point, Gravenor Bay, Barbuda 48 Figure 27 Some of the areas which are mostly affected by flooding 49 Figure 28 Some other flood prone areas 50 Figure 29 Flood prone risk zone in Perry Bay (Antigua and Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010) 53 Figure 30 Drought risk profile Antigua 56 Figure 31 Drought risk profile Barbuda 56 Figure 32 Antigua Watersheds 58 Figure 33 Number of Recorded Incidences of Dengue Fever in Antigua and Barbuda 61 Figure 34 Population Density by Parish for Antigua and Barbuda 68 4 List of Plates Plate 1 Impact of floodwater on citrus production in Christian Valley (Antigua and Barbuda National 46 Disaster Office, 2010 Plate 2 Impact of flood Water on Big Creek during the passage of Hurricane Earl (2010) (Antigua and 52 Barbuda National Disaster Office, 2010) 5 List of Tables Table 1 Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Antigua and Barbuda 41 Table 2 Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Antigua and Barbuda 42 Table 3 Economic loss/damage of events, which occurred between 1995 and 2010 44 Table 4 Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50 m and 100 m beach erosion 46 in Antigua and Barbuda (Simpson et al, 2012) Table 5 Severity of Drought Conditions 1984-2013 (30-year period) (Antigua and Barbuda 54 Meteorological Service, 2014) Table 6 Stakeholder assessment of the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on 64 water resources, agriculture, and health in Antigua and Barbuda 6 List of Acronyms ADRM Agriculture Disaster Risk Management AEWS Agriculture Early Warning System AIDS Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome ALP Antiguan Labour Party APUA Antigua Public Utilities Authority ARC Antigua Rainforest Company ARCT Antigua Rainforest Canopy Tour BPW Body Pond Watershed CAMI Caribbean Agro-Meteorological Initiative CANARI Caribbean Natural Resources Institute CARIBSAVE Caribbean Sectoral Approach to Vulnerability and Resilience CariCOF Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum CARICOM Caribbean Community CARIWIN Caribbean Water Initiative CBI Caribbean Basin Initiative CDB Caribbean Development Bank CDEMA Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency CDM Comprehensive Disaster Management CDPMN Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network CPA Country Poverty Assessment CTCN Climate Technology Centre and Network DCA Development Control Agency DFATD Department of Foreign Affairs Trade and Development EAG Environmental Awareness Group EC Eastern Caribbean ECCB Eastern Caribbean Central Bank EIA Environment Impact Assessment EIMAS Environmental Information Management and Advisory System ESAL Environmental Solutions Antigua Limited FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Fund GOAB Government of Antigua and Barbuda GWP-C Global Water Partnership Caribbean HDI Human Development Index HFA Hyogo Framework of Action HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IMF Inter-Monetary Fund ISFNS Information and Early Warning System for Food and Nutrition Security IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management LAC Latin America and the Caribbean NBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan NEMMA North East Marine Management Area NEMS National Environmental Management Strategy 7 NEOC National Emergency Operations Centre NEST National Economic and Social Transformation NODS National Office of Disaster Services NPRS National Poverty Reduction Strategy OAS Organisation of American States OECS Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States PAHO Pan-American Health Organisation PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Assessment REGATTA Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and Climate Change Action in Latin America and the Caribbean RRACC Reduce Risks to Human and Natural Assets Resulting from Climate Change SIDS Small island Developing States SIRMM Sustainable Island Resource Management Mechanism SIRMZP Sustainable Island Resource Management Zoning Plan SLR Sea level rise SPREP South Pacific Regional Environment Programme UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP-ROLAC United Nations Environment Programme – Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlement Programme UNISRD United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UPP United People’s Party USAID United States Agency for International Development VAT Value added tax VIA Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation VIAAC Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation Analysis in the Caribbean WFCA Walling Forest Conservation Area WHO World Health Organisation WTO World Trade Organisation 8 Executive Summary Executive Summary By the middle of the 21st century, the Caribbean 1. Conduct a climate change Vulnerability region is expected to be warmer by between 2℃ Impact and Adaptation analysis in water to 3℃ (IPCC, 2014). Like other small islands resources, agriculture and the health sector developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean, Antigua at the national scale; is vulnerable to climate hazards such as 2. Identify adaptation options for national hurricanes, drought and extreme rainfall and action; temperature changes. These hazards present 3. Support national policies and development challenges to development processes, particularly planning processes, with the results of the those related to the agriculture, water resources VIA analysis. and health sectors. Contemporary vulnerabilities of these sectors and associated livelihoods are To effectively achieve these objectives, detailed products of coupled economic and environmental climate variability analysis was combined with