Infant Mortality and the Repeal of Federal Prohibition* Running title: Infant Mortality and Repeal David S. Jacks Krishna Pendakur Hitoshi Shigeoka September 2020 Abstract: Using new data on county-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1939, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition increased infant mortality, both in counties and states that repealed and in neighboring counties. We find that repeal is associated with a 4.0% increase in infant mortality rates in counties that chose wet status via local option elections or state-wide legislation and with a 4.7% increase in neighboring dry counties, suggesting a large role for cross-border policy externalities. These estimates imply that roughly 27,000 excess infant deaths could be attributed to the repeal of federal prohibition in this period. JEL classification: H73, I18, J1, N3 Keywords: Federal prohibition, infant mortality, policy externalities Corresponding author: David S. Jacks Department of Economics 8888 University Drive Burnaby, BC V5A1S6
[email protected] *We are grateful to Tony Chernis, Jarone Gittens, Ian Preston, and especially Mengchun Ouyang for excellent research assistance. We also especially thank Marcella Alsan, Arthur Lewbel, Chris Meissner, Chris Muris, our referees, and the editor for comments as well as Price Fishback for providing us with the infant mortality data. We appreciate feedback from the 2017 Asian and Australasian Society of Labour Economics Conference, the 2017 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society, the 2017 Economic History Association Annual Meetings, the 2017 European Historical Economics Society Conference, the 2017 NBER DAE Summer Institute, and the 2018 Canadian Economics Association Annual Meeting as well as seminars at Boston College, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Fudan, Harvard, Hitotsubashi, Melbourne, Monash, Montréal, National Taiwan, New South Wales, Northwestern, Queen’s, Stanford, Sydney, UBC, UC Berkeley, UC Davis, Western Washington, Yale-NUS, and Zhongnan.