Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010 – 2011 2 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Essex County Fire & Rescue Service Our Values: Respect, Accountability, Openness and Involvement

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Contents 3

1. Foreword...... 4 2. Introduction...... 5 3. Executive Summary...... 6 4. Climate Change in East of England...... 9 5. Demographics of Essex...... 17 6. Diversity...... 20 7. Older People in Essex...... 25 8. Human and Animal Health...... 32 Contents

9. County Development and Transport Infrastructure...... 35 Section Here 10. The Changing Face of Technology...... 49 11. Terrorism...... 52 12. The Economy...... 59 13. Operational Service Delivery...... 61 14. Future Constraints...... 73 15. Harlow & Epping Community Command...... 77 16. Basildon & Castle Point Community Command...... 86 17. Chelmsford & Maldon Community Command...... 95 18. Southend & Rochford Community Command...... 104 19. Thurrock & Brentwood Community Command...... 114 20. Colchester & Tendring Community Command...... 124 21. Uttlesford & Braintree Community Command...... 133 22. Conclusion...... 144 23. Sources...... 145

Disclaimer

Statistical information; where available and appropriate data on population, demographics, ethnic background, religon, social class and age has been gathered from the most recently dated source at the time press. In all cases the last National Census data (2001) has been used as the definitive source.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 4

Foreword Strategic Assessment of Risk

Welcome to the Fire Authority’s meet these challenges in a difficult County Wide strategic assessment time for all public sector organisa- for 2010/11. tions as they respond to the funding The world, and Essex, has wit- pressures brought about by the new nessed significant change since the Government. first iteration of this document in It is therefore essential that we 2008. Further evidence of climate undertake a regular County wide change, flu pandemic and of course review looking at both the medium the global recession are all events and long term changes and devel- that have further shaped the risk opments occurring within Essex that profile across our County. have the potential to impact on the We live and work in an energetic services we deliver and where we and vibrant Essex that continually can work to reduce risk through our presents fresh opportunities and fur- community safety interventions. This ther economic and social develop- document will continue to be revised ments. We also live in a world that is annually in order to provide key on occasion subject to sudden and stakeholders with up to date strate- funding challenges ahead in order to dramatic changes, either natural or gic information that will assist in the satisfy the community safety needs man-made, that require an immedi- development of the Integrated Risk of our growing and increasingly di- ate and effective response from the Management, and other Corporate verse community. This annual review Fire and Rescue Service. We must Planning, processes. will provide a useful background to continuously learn from this dynamic Many of the issues within this doc- inform discussion and future plan- environment in order to have the re- ument are complex in nature; there- ning. sources and flexibility to respond to fore the aim of this document is to these new challenges. provide an insight into the significant By the Chairman of the Fire To achieve our aim of becoming an issues arising from the changing en- Authority Councillor Anthony excellent Fire and Rescue Service, vironment in which we live. Under- Headley positively contributing towards mak- standing the changing risk profile ing Essex a safer place to live and of Essex will help us to assess our work, we must be able to recognise future use of resources and direction and respond to change and identify of travel, identifying possible gaps in future challenges as they emerge in service delivery as well as opportuni- order to ensure that we are fully pre- ties for improvement. pared to meet them. This will require Essex County Fire and Rescue flexibility, innovation, investment and Service is committed to doing more the development of our workforce to with its resources, and meeting the

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 5

Introduction Foreword & Introduction

Why has this document been gencies and responding effectively produced? to them once they occur. The future success of the Fire and The provision of these services is Rescue Service will in no small part based on our understanding of risk be based on a proactive under- as it exists today, but to be able to standing of its community’s needs, maintain the high levels of service and then developing and providing currently provided we must under- services to meet those needs before stand the risk presented in the future and not after they have arisen. and prepare to adapt to this now. The Fire and Rescue Service en- This means knowing what we will vironment is changing dramatically need to deliver, to whom, when and as a result of social, economic, envi- why? ronmental and other factors; factors The changes to the Service’s risk which are and will continue to have environment mean there will be dif- a direct bearing on the range and ferent expectations on us in respect quality of services that it provides. of the services we deliver. Much of In order to meet the future chal- our current planned activity is based to set out our aspiration of what we lenges of this dynamic environment on short to medium-term strategy. want our future service to deliver in it is imperative that the Service rec- The purpose of this document is to order to meet the changing needs of ognises that knowledge of our op- consider those key areas, identified our communities. erating environment, together with using existing data, research and The purpose of this document is an understanding of those who may professional judgement, and set out to set out those key changes and call upon the service in the future, is what they mean for the Service in what they mean to Essex County fundamental to our continued suc- Essex. In effect this is a long-term Fire and Rescue Service. cess. This approach will ensure that strategy document that identifies proactive measures are taken to those areas that will need to be con- By the Chief Firew Officer David meet and address demand rather sidered in the coming months and Johnson LL.b (Hons) BSc MA MSc than reactive measures that are years, adapting existing strategy to FCMI constantly trying to keep up with de- reflect known changes that are to be mand. faced. Essex County Fire and Rescue Predicting the future is never a Service currently provides a range precise science and there will always of services to its communities, from remain a degree of uncertainty. The education to proactive and reac- global recession is evidence of that. tive services designed to help make However by using the information people safer by preventing emer- that is available today we will be able

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 6

Executive Summary Strategic Assessment of Risk

This publication provides a sub- challenges and opportunities and senior managers in taking difficult stantial review of the risks impact- it is essential that we are best pre- decisions and engaging with coming upon Essex together with the pared to meet them. We must be munities to explain those decisions. regional and national impacts. The prepared to re-evaluate traditional Essex Fire Authority is committed to document also includes a detailed roles, procedures and practices in this and looks forward to continuing analysis of each of the Fire Serv- the face of a changing social, politi- to drive forward in its aim for Essex ice’s seven Community Command cal, technological and climatic envi- to be an excellent Fire and Rescue areas these are; ronment and public expectation. Service. The Service has an increasing re- The financial crisis is impacting • Basildon and Castle Point sponsibility to deal with natural and throughout the world. The future fi- • Chelmsford and Maldon human disasters beyond the tra- nancial position of the nation is re- • Colchester and Tendring ditional Fire Service role. The Serv- ported by many as being uncertain. ice, together with partner agencies, In the near future Fire Services are • Harlow and Epping must continue to develop and build likely to face a period of real-terms • Southend and Rochford upon the capacity to respond to decrease in funding; at the same • Thurrock and Brentwood these unfamiliar threats. time as being challenged to make • Uttlesford and Braintree The context within which the Fire further efficiency gains. Service operates, and its roles and Cuts in public spending an- The Service will use this review to responsibilities, have changed sig- nounced in the Chancellor’s April drive integrated risk management nificantly in the past 30 years. 2009 Budget means that the Serv- planning. This planning effectively The Audit Commission have rec- ice is required to make a further details how the Service plans to ognised in their report; Rising to the £700,000 in efficiency savings in manage these risks to an accept- Challenge - Improving Fire Serv- 2010-11; that’s in addition to the able level and in doing so make the ice Efficiency- (Dec 2008) that Fire £3.1m that is already required. County of Essex a safer place to live, Services in the UK have taken up The majority of leading experts work and visit. the modernisation challenge; they claim that climate change will bring Over the next 10 to 20 years much have made significant changes to warmer, longer summers with higher will change in our communities improve the effectiveness and effi- average and peak temperatures that will affect the way we provide ciency of their service. whilst winters will be shorter and our services. Understanding that Change has not been, and will wetter with different rainfall patterns change and being able to respond not be, easy. Further changes in the than are currently experienced. in an effective and timely manner is Service will be felt by all Fire Serv- There will be more extremes of essential if we are to meet commu- ice staff .The common factor in suc- weather in both summer and winter. nity expectations. cessful change has proved to be Indeed the Meteorological Office are Key areas of the Service’s oper- strong leadership by Fire Author- predicting just that for the summer ating environment will present new ity Members working closely with of 2010.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 There will be a greater risk of wild themselves safer. whilst generating economic benefit, fires and increased restrictions placed A heightened degree of under- will also impact on the county’s in- 7 on the water resources available to standing and cultural awareness to frastructure and transport networks, deal with them. There could also be ensure behaviours and actions are not presenting particular challenges to an increase in the risk of flooding inci- misunderstood or misinterpreted will the Fire and Rescue Service. Housing dents caused by both rainfall and the be essential if closer community work- and population growth is likely to see impact of weather extremes in coastal ing is to be achieved. As the diversity in excess of 127,000 new homes be- areas. of communities in Essex increases, so ing built in Essex by 2021 and it is es- The demands on operational per- will the need to ensure that we reflect timated that this will generate an addi- sonnel could increase and this may those communities in the way our tional 500,000 transport movements place resourcing pressures on the services are delivered. a week within the county. Airport Service, on primary employers of fire There will need to be an even great- growth, particularly at Stansted will fighters conditioned to the retained er focus on using and sharing risk see passengers increase to 35 million duty system and on other activities data so that higher-risk groups can be by 2015 and as many as 70 million by such as preventative fire safety work. consistently and effectively targeted. 2020 if a second runway is construct- Longer-term budget planning will This will mean working more closely ed. This will see more than the entire need to be adapted to reflect these with other agencies and partners population of the United Kingdom changing demands as will the need to for mutual benefit on joint outcomes travel through the fastest growing air- ensure resources are available to con- and ensuring that community safety port in Europe on an annual basis with tinue the increase in non-operational strategies are flexible and adaptable. researchers predicting an increase in activities vital to our success. Primary Recruitment strategies will need to traffic movements associated with this employers of fire fighters conditioned be focussed on drawing applications development from 40,000 at current to the retained duty system and those from under-represented groups and levels to 195,000 per day. Executive Summary who are self-employed will need to be increasing the diversity profile of the Planned growth at both the Bath- involved in the development of sus- Service so that we reflect the profile of side Bay and Shell Haven develop- tainable response strategies if this the community we serve. ments will see significant increases in area of the service is to be developed Human and animal diseases are container movements setting Essex and maintained. This will mean the matters that Essex County Fire & Res- out as a major shipping county. The reassessment of fire fighters condi- cue Service has to take account of in construction of two new deep sea tioned to the retained duty system order to ensure we maintain service container terminals moving a total of availability models to ensure they are delivery. A UK wide epidemic, or the approximately 6.3 million containers fit for purpose and developing adapt- impact on the UK of a pandemic offer a year will generate in the region of able resourcing options for delivery of two lines of threat to the Service; one 70,000 to 80,000 additional vehicle community safety and training activi- is staff becoming infected directly, or movements a week within and across ties. This is work that is already under- finding themselves having to support the county. way in Essex. their families through illness; the other The demand for rail travel is likely to Fire fighting strategies and alterna- is operating in an infected environ- increase at a pace faster than can be tive water and pumping provision will ment. Whilst we have business conti- coped with by the rail networks with need to be reflected in fleet develop- nuity arrangements for a sudden and limited scope for increasing capac- ment as will response options to po- ongoing loss of staff through periods ity and carriages to existing services. tentially increasing levels of incidents. of illness, these have not been fully Expansion of the transport infrastruc- Specialist equipment and training tested, nor can they be until and un- ture is inevitable if significant increases needs will have to be identified and less a severe epidemic or a pandemic in traffic movements are to be ad- provided to reflect the changing nature strikes, during which normal life is like- dressed. of operational risk as will the changing ly to face wide social and economic Increases in car and lorry move- welfare needs of our fire fighters. disruption; significant threats to the ments will result in an increased The changing diversity and profile continuity of essential services; lower risk of road traffic collisions and the of our communities will have a direct production levels; shortages; and dis- transportation of dangerous goods, bearing on our full range of serv- tribution difficulties. Individual organi- with heavier traffic reducing aver- ice delivery. The predicted increase sations may suffer from a pandemic’s age speeds and increasing journey in the number of ethnic groups and impact on staff absenteeism, thereby times. Vehicle and appliance design older people will lead to an increase reducing the services available. and response options will need to be in those who are at a higher risk from Equally, the Service must be pre- reassessed in order that response fire and other emergencies. Robust pared to operate in an environment times can be minimised. Educa- prevention measures coupled with in which there is a high level of animal tion campaigns designed to reduce our ability to communicate the serv- sickness, and possibly having to deal the number of road traffic collisions ices that we are able to provide to with (large) animal rescues. will need to become an increasingly them in a timely manner will become Even in the current economic cli- significant element within a flex- increasingly important. Communica- mate Essex is one of the fastest grow- ible and adaptable community safety tion and information strategies will ing counties in the country in terms strategy while our equipment and need to be developed that reflect our of infrastructure with numerous am- training needs will have to respond to desire to reach those most at risk or bitious development plans covering ever more complex and robust vehicle those who do not know what we can housing, airports, sea ports and social designs. provide in order to help them make regeneration. The development plans, The county’s transport infrastructure

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 provides the life blood to support our The Service will need to ensure improve efficiency as well as 8 economic sector. Small businesses in that we have the right person, who performance; particular, form the foundations to our is safe and competent, in the right • Lead their communities by county’s economic success and con- place at the right time and with the taking hard decisions affecting tinued prosperity. As the financial posi- right equipment, to enable the Serv- staffing levels and deployment tion of the Service is inextricably linked ice to deliver the most effective and in the interests of efficiency; to the county’s economic growth it is efficient response to all types of inci- • Ensure that they have the right vital that the Service provides every dents, under every type of condition information to justify those available assistance to the business and across all parts of the county. decisions; community to protect emerging and With the level of development cur- • Defend decisions publicly established companies from the rently predicted to take place in Es- once they have been made; threat of arson, and reduces the risk sex, the Service must decide how • Challenge their Chief Fire Of- of fires occurring in the workplace. best to manage the increase in risk ficers to improve the diversity Financial growth in the business com- within the challenging financial envi- of their workforce; munity is fundamental to continued ronment. Managing the risks in this • Define their objectives for social prosperity and the regeneration environment will require change. Regional Management of deprived communities. The opportunities and challenges Boards (RMBs), and partici- The Service now also has a role presented by these changes are sig- pate beyond where required through its Community Safety Part- nificant. By giving detailed consid- to in RMBs only where there nerships (CSPs) to drive and support eration to these risks at the earliest is a good business case for change in areas of deprivation where opportunity, the Service will ensure doing so; and statistically most of the county’s fires that it is well positioned to meet • Provide leadership on equality occur. them and continue to provide a first and diversity issues, support- The tragic events of 9/11 and 7/7 class emergency service. Key to this ing and encouraging effective

Strategic Assessment of Risk and the subsequent threat of further is understanding the long term as- culture change within the fire terrorism in the UK have combined to pirations of the Service so that the service. create a “New Dimension” risk to the development of strategies and proc- people of Essex. The Fire and Rescue esses will ensure the Service is best Chief Fire Officers should: Service, as a category 1 responder prepared to deliver into the future. (a category 1 responder is any or- The Service must continue to re- • Aim to meet or beat ganisation in the UK that has specific flect the changes in geographic, government savings targets duties as determined under the Civil economic and demographic risk, by improving operational ef- Contingencies Act 2004), is at the and respond to the rise of new ficiency; forefront of the response to a chemi- threats and changes to legislative • Continue to use those savings cal, biological, radiological or nuclear requirements. By determining the to invest in Community Fire (CBRNE) incident. This New Dimen- operational requirements and com- Safety; sions burden comes as a significant petencies placed on firefighters • Identify the benefits of addition to our ever expanding range and assessing them against these, initiatives for the wider com- of public service delivery expecta- the Service will ensure the right munity and invest in them in tions. The variations in method, form, response is made. proportion to their value; size and number of single or multiple Under the Fire and Rescue • Adopt good ideas for improv- attacks requires the Service to exam- Services Act 2004, the Fire and ing efficiency from other fire ine its present response procedures Rescue National Framework sets services, or adapt them to and equipment to ensure that it has out the Government’s priorities and their own circumstances; sufficient resilience to meet the needs objectives for the Fire and Rescue • Systematically explore the of the public arising from any such Service. available options for working incident. Even prior to the current recession with neighbouring fire services Understanding and using technol- the then Minister for the Fire and and pursue those that deliver ogy in the workplace effectively is key Rescue Service, Parmjit Dhanda, set the biggest efficiency savings; to future investment in staff and IT. the scene for the Fire Service nation- • Improve strategic planning Aligning our business processes with ally in the National Framework 2008- and performance manage- changes in technology, affecting both 11. In it the Minister stated that, in a ment of partnership working; operational and administration ac- tighter fiscal climate, Fire and Res- • improve the ability of man- tivities, will enable the Service to take cue Authorities must meet public ex- agers at all levels to manage advantage of future developments pectations of a modern, efficient and change; and aimed at making core activities more effective Public Service • Provide leadership on equality effective and streamlined. Recognis- and diversity issues, taking a ing and engaging with the technologi- These include: lead in challenging behaviour cal environment in which the younger that does not promote equal- generation is now growing up, wheth- Fire and Rescue Authorities ity and diversity. er Internet or digital TV based, will en- should: able the Service to better focus and communicate its community safety • Challenge themselves and messages. their Chief Fire Officers to

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 9 Climate Change in the East

of England Climate Change

The earth’s climate has been man-made contributions, (carbon that may occur within Essex are dif- changing for many hundreds of fuels), emissions remain a useful tool ficult to provide as they are depend- years, mainly as a consequence in considering future outcomes. It is ent on factors which may vary. For of a natural phenomenon and, on this basis that the vast amount of example emissions of green house arguably, as a result of carbon- research into the potential outcomes gases may reduce and thus climate emissions. of climate change is based on mod- change may slow. What is certain is However recent change, over the elling using different emission levels. that the climate is changing and this last thirty years, has been markedly Although the different levels of emis- has, and will continue to have, an more dramatic. For example, global sions used in the modelling affect the impact on the demands placed on increases in temperature since the degree to which climate change will the Fire and Rescue Service to deal start of the 20th century have totalled occur, they all identify that it will oc- with the effects of severe weather 0.6ºC with approximately 0.4ºC of cur. On this basis, and as a starting patterns. Summers will become hot- this occurring since the 1970s. Al- point, low to medium emission out- ter and drier; in fact nine of the ten though there is still debate as to the comes from modelling have been warmest years on record have oc- exact cause of climate change, it is used indicatively to set out potential curred since 1990, with five of these clear that increases in ‘greenhouse’ changes in the climate. being since the millennium. During gas emissions remain a possible summer months rainfall will reduce contender. Again, although it is un- Climate Change in Essex on average with more very hot days certain whether fluctuations in green- experienced. Winters will become house gas emissions are caused Accurate prediction of the milder and wetter with shorter, by natural events, (solar flares), or potential climate change scenarios intense downpours of rain. In both

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 the summer and winter more individ- 10 ual ‘extreme’ weather events can be expected. Sea levels will continue to rise with more extreme surge tides being experienced more frequently.

What will be the impact of predicted climate change on our environment?

In summer months, higher temperatures and reduced levels of rainfall will lead to more drought conditions and longer periods of water shortage. There is a clear positive relationship between the number of wild fires and temperature, and a clear negative relationship with rainfall1. A report into the exceptionally hot summer of 1995 identified that 26-86cm by 2080, with sea levels in that could be difficult to predict. It ‘For a 1o C increase in summer extreme conditions potentially rising would also increase the frequency temperatures…the number of out- by 80-140cm. with which firefighters, conditioned door fires [can increase] between Wind speeds associated with se- to the retained duty system, would 24,000 and 40,000 nationally’ vere extremes of weather are pre- be away from their primary employ- 2 Strategic Assessment of Risk Average call rates to secondary dicted to rise between 2 and 6% in ment. This is likely to impact on the fires within Essex between May winter periods and reduce between goodwill of some employers to re- and September for the period 2001 2% and 10% in summer months. lease them for firefighting duties, to 2009 were 1970 with a peak of Wind speed modelling as a con- resulting in a decrease of retained 3862 in 2003 and a low of 1078 in sequence of climate change is not appliance availability and a propor- 2008 (see figure 1). On this basis widely available; however it is not tional increase on the operational a 1º rise in summer temperature unrealistic, based on events over use of whole-time firefighters in re- could see average call rates elevate the last three to five years, to identify tained areas.. to between 2300 and 2500 per an- that increases in the number of ex- As a consequence attendance num or 2640 and 3030 following a treme weather events would almost times to incidents could be extend- 2º increase. certainly increase the incidence and ed and prioritising of emergency For winter months, changes to experience of severe wind related calls may become necessary. rainfall patterns are already being incidents. This predicted increase in opera- experienced with shorter more in- tional activity will result in a decrease tense rainfall occurring. The impact What will be the impact of predicted in the time available for other activities of substantial increases in rainfall, environmental changes on the Fire such as training and community safe- especially if it does not fall evenly and Rescue Service ty, which may lead to reductions in the but instead falls very heavily in short number of community safety activities periods, are wide-ranging3. There is It is likely that climatic changes will undertaken by operational crews and an increased likelihood of severe, lo- result in increased operational activ- the time they spend developing and calised flooding not confined solely ity, the nature of which will be sea- maintaining competencies. to areas surrounding waterways but son dependent. In summer months, Firefighting is an arduous activ- also urban areas where storm drain grassland or secondary fires will in- ity, particularly during hot weather. capacity may not be capable of crease in number and there will be Attending a higher number of sec- dealing with sustained intense peri- more large scale incidents. In winter ondary fires, for longer periods, may ods of rainfall. months there will be a greater likeli- have health and welfare implica- The frequency of flooding is less hood of localised and severe flood- tions for crews. This may reflect in relevant than the severity of flooding in urban, rural and coastal areas. the type of equipment provided and ing; as one significant event affect- More frequent and larger fires may the way it is used, also in the type of ing a relatively urbanised area would require more frequent and larger fire personal protective equipment that present consequences potentially service attendances or dramatic is provided and the welfare arrange- well in excess of numerous less sig- changes to firefighting response and ments such as drinking water, food nificant events. attitudes. In rural areas this will place and toilet facilities. If sea levels rise in line with expert greater demand on firefighters con- Reduced water availability will predictions, the Essex coast line will ditioned to the retained duty system. affect open water supplies such as face serious threat. Average sea lev- This will have budgetary implications lakes and ponds and may lead to re- els off the Essex coast could rise by

2 Single derelict building, grassland, intentional, 3 Effects of climate change on Fire and Rescue 1 Impacts of the exceptionally hot weather of straw/stubble burning, outdoor structure, refuse Services in the UK; Communities and Local 1995 in the UK- Department of the Environment and single derelict vehicle Government 2006

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 ductions in pressure in water mains. of flooding. likely to mitigate or control the im- Insufficient water availability could se- Flooding often creates health risks pact of flooding. Mud-flats and salt- 11 riously hamper firefighting operations where flood water causes sewage marshes off the Essex coast act as and lead to a reassessment of mo- and effluent to be released from a buffer protecting coastal commu- bilising protocols and fleet provision drains. It can also isolate sections of nities. Some research sets out that such as water bowsers. Firefighting our communities with little of no abil- these will erode. In 1953 when tide operations may require more re- ity to access those who may need levels rose between 1.5m and 2m sources to attend the same incident assistance of any kind. It could also above predicted levels, (see figures over a longer period of time. affect the availability of fresh drinking A,B,C, and D), over 100 people were Increased incidents of flood- water supplies. killed in Essex and 11,500 people ing may require more operational Coastal areas may be more fre- made homeless. Essex Trends 2006 attendances and in this sense, quently affected by higher tides and reported “While advances in flood preceding comments regarding storm related flooding. Standing wa- protection have been made since the the impact on firefighter resources ter depths may prevent Fire Service early 1950’s the danger of coastal are equally relevant. Specialist equip- response vehicles from entering, flooding remains significant, particu- ment and training will be neces- leaving and moving around flooded larly as climate change increases the sary to effect rescues where safe areas. Flood management schemes chance of storms and high tides co- to do so and mitigate the impact may become compromised and less inciding” (see figure 2 and 3 overleaf). Climate Change

Fig A Fig D Copyright Thurrock Museum Copyright Thurrock Source Essex Resilience Forum Source Community Risk Register

Fig B Copyright Thurrock Museum Copyright Thurrock

Pictures showing parts of Tilbury flooded in the 1953 floods (Fig A-D)

The flood was caused by an accumulation of adverse conditions; a low pressure system over the North Sea and North Easterly gales which had the effect of pushing a surge of water down the North Sea into an ever narrowing gap between the coasts of England Fig C and Europe. Source Essex Resilience Forum Community Source Risk Register

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Essex Rivers 12 Source Essex Resilience Forum Community Risk Register Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig 2

Apart from the River Thames, all rivers and water courses in Essex are vulnerable to one or a combination of factors, such as prolonged or intense heavy rain fall, or rapid thaw of heavy snow. Any of these factors can lead to flooding of roads and residential or business premises.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Essex Flood Risk Copyright Environment Agency 13 Climate Chnage

Fig 3 people losing their lives. risk of crop and grass fires. The im- On the 7th November 2007, there pact on the Service will be predomi- The map in Figure 3 above shows was a high risk of flooding around nately financial due to increased use the areas of the county that are at the east coast of England due to a of retained firefighters who cover the risk from Tidal Flooding. Essex has combination of gale force winds and majority of rural areas. The knock- the largest coast line of any Fire and a surge tide. on effect will be the loss of time with Rescue Service in the UK. Histori- (Nationally, 26 additional Water their employers during protracted cally, in Essex, there is evidence of Rescue teams were deployed, with incidents and a potential depletion numerous flooding events. The most four additional HVP pre-positioned in of the overall operational cover in serious of these occurred on the readiness for operational deployment, Essex. The potential consequences are large scale disruption to the peo- The knock-on effect will be the loss of time with their em- ple of Essex, economic loss to the community and a reduction in time ployers during protracted incidents and a potential deple- and resources available to carry out tion of the overall operational cover in Essex. The potential community safety initiatives. The fi- consequences are large scale disruption to the people of nancial costs will continue to rise  Essex, economic loss to the community and a reduction during the winter months as crews in time and resources available to carry out community attend ever more frequent incidents safety initiatives. of flooding and storm damage. Longer term budget planning must recognise the impact of in- 31st January 1953 when a combi- to deal with the severe flooding in creased operational activity along nation of high sea levels, heavy rain June 2007). with the need to ensure community fall and winds resulted in large areas safety work continues to be deliv- of Essex flooding. It was the worst Risk Analysis ered. Firefighting tactics, appliances, recorded disaster to affect the peo- equipment and crewing models will ple of Essex since 1702, with 119 As Essex is 70% rural4, (see need to be considered in the light figure 4 overleaf), hotter drier sum- of increased operational activity to 4 Pastoral or agricultural mers are likely to lead to an increase ensure adequate resources remain

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 4 Rural Areas of County at Risk of Field & Grass Fires 14 Strategic Assessment of Risk

available to deal with all types of inci- recovery phase of major flood- and the public: dents during periods of high activity. ing events, including number of households still displaced; Commenting on the role of Local Pitt Report- Learning Lessons from Authorities, Sir Michael said: the 2007 Floods • Ensure proper resourcing of flood resilience measures, • Local authorities should play a In 2007 large parts of England ex- with above inflation increases major role in the management perienced significant, widespread every spending review; of local flood risk, taking the and prolonged flooding. Sir Michael lead in tackling local problems Pitt was charged with reporting the • Establish a National Resilience of flooding and co-ordinating lessons learned from the events and Forum to facilitate national all relevant agencies. Upper published his report ‘Learning Les- level planning for flooding and tier authorities should estab- sons from the 2007 Floods’. other emergencies; lish oversight and scrutiny Sir Michael Pitt called for urgent committees to review work and fundamental changes in the • Have pre planned, rather than being undertaken to reduce way the country is adapting to the ad hoc, financial arrange- flood risk and publish annual increased risk of flooding ments in place for responding updates on the work under- .Sir Michael recommended that to the financial burden of ex- taken. The Government should: ceptional emergencies; Other key recommendations • Establish a Cabinet Com- • Publish an action plan to im- include: mittee dedicated to tackling plement the recommenda- the risk of flooding bringing tions in this review, with regu- • The Environment Agency flooding in line with other ma- lar progress updates. and Met Office should work jor risks such as pandemic flu together, through a joint and terrorism; Sir Michael also expressed con- centre, to improve their tech- cerns about the quality and availabil- nical capability to forecast, • Publish monthly summa- ity of flood risk information currently model and warn. ries of progress during the available to emergency responders

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 • The Government should put and primary sites which are in ensuring the risk of premises in place a fully funded national flood zones, and is working flooding is reduced. 15 capability for flood rescue, with the Environment Agency with Fire and Rescue Authori- to see which of these might Flood Rescue in Essex ties playing a lead role, under- need additional protection. pinned by a statutory duty, if The Fire and Rescue Service necessary; • Every water company is re- chairs the Essex Resilience Forum, viewing how its critical assets which is a group of category 1 and • The Ministry of Defence may be at risk from flooding in 2 responders, as defined under the should identify a small number order to prioritise investment Civil Contingencies Act 2004. The of trained Armed Forces per- plans. This information will be Forum is in place to plan for present sonnel who can be deployed used as the basis of a planned and future risks faced by the people, to advise Gold Commands on nationwide programme to im- businesses and services of Essex. logistics during wide-area civil prove the resilience of critical Planning has to be for the future on emergencies and, working infrastructure which Govern- how to plan, deal and respond to with Cabinet Office, identify ment will produce later on flooding is identified as one of those and suitable mechanism for this year. The majority of Lo- risks. deployment. cal Resilience Forums have The Service has demonstrated been briefed on critical infra- its future commitment to flood re- Government Response to the Pitt structure in their area, and the sponse with a financial investment, Report remainder will be done by the in order to enhance the Service flood

end of August. rescue capability. This is despite not Climate Change The Department for the Environ- having a statutory duty to respond ment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) • The Environment Agency has to flood incidents. However, the was tasked with and consequently spent £5 million on repair- Service recognises the public’s ex- published an action plan for govern- ing defenses damaged in the pectation of the Service to do all it ment, local authorities and others to summer of 2007. Current im- can to protect their safety. Addition- implement the recommendations of provement schemes include a ally The Service has a duty to save the Pitt Review. £5.9 million project refurbish- life and protect public safety and as ing the Hull barrier and reme- such will continue to attend flood re- Defra’s Action Plan dial works on the culverts in lated incidents. Gloucester. In response to the Pitt Review, the In the last year Defra claim to have Government has also agreed the overseen work by other Government • Proposals to provide a Gov- need for a properly funded national departments and agencies to im- ernment grant to help peo- capability for flood rescue and a prove the country’s preparedness to ple bear some of the costs project group has been implement- deal with flooding events in several involved with implementing ed to improve the UK’s capability key areas, including: such measures. and coordination between the various agencies involved. Up to £2m • The Environment Agency’s • Tightening up reservoir safety has been pledged by the Govern- flood warning service will now through flood maps for res- ment to improve flood rescue capa- automatically register proper- ervoirs that come under the bility by December 2010. ties to receive flood warnings Reservoir Act, which were As further recent evidence of flood where telephone numbers are provided to local emergency events in Essex, throughout the publicly available. Since June planners before the end of night of February 9 and the day of 2007 over 73,000 more peo- 2009 if they were not already February 10 2009 the Service re- ple have registered with the available. Measures to im- ceived more than 350 calls, with Agency’s flood warning sys- prove a risk based approach around 310 of those being related to tem. to reservoir safety are in the flooding. More than 100 appliances Flood and Water Manage- were working around the county • Delivering improved management Act 2010. helping motorists stranded in their ment of surface water flood- cars, flooded homes and even ani- ing, (Flood & Water Manage- • The Government will produce mals trapped by the rising waters. ment Act Royal Assent 8 April an outline for the National 2010) and by giving the Envi- Flood Emergency Framework. The risk of flooding features ronment Agency the Strate- This will be part of a major prominently on the county and gic Overview of all flood and programme to improve pre- national risk registers and pro- coastal erosion risk manage- paredness for severe flooding. vided the theme of the 2008 Essex ment, with local authorities Resilience Forum annual exercise. taking the lead in managing FRS Flood Plain Consultations Fire Service personnel were heavily the risk of all local floods. involved in the planning, facilitating • FRS WFS Department will and delivery of this event. • The electricity industry has ensure a timely response is identified just over 1,000 grid made under PPS25, thus

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 16 Environment

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities Consequences Consequences

The effect of climate • Higher than • Greater demand on • Increase in • Opportunities for the change on summers could average wholetime resources. Firefighters conditioned development of the mean an increase in rural temperatures. to the retained duty new and innovative fires as well as the fires • Resources deployed for system budget costs. techniques, equipment covering larger rural areas. • Longer dry periods longer periods. and response methods between rainfalls. • Firefighters conditioned to meet the changing There may be insufficient • Larger attendances to the retained duty risk profile using exist- water to extinguish fires • Lower than required at incidents. system will be absent ing resources. due to drought or water average rainfall. from primary employers restrictions and longer time • Increase in calls to more frequently and • Change in terms & periods may be required to • Reduction in Control. for longer periods of conditions for extinguish fires. available water. time. employees to better fit Service Delivery need. • Greater demand for Specialist skills. • Potential for reputation damage. • Up skill workforce to manage new risk. The effect of climate • Higher than • Greater demand for • Loss of public confi- change on winters could average levels specialist equipment. dence and support. • Work in partnership lead to more extreme of rain. (with Environment weather conditions, e.g. • Inadequate levels of • Primary employers Agencies) snow, ice, high winds, • Larger volumes resource to respond to

Strategic Assessment of Risk withdraw support for drifts an increase in of rain water all requirements. releasing employees. flooding from snow melt falling over incidents, floods cover- shorter periods. • Inadequate welfare ar- ing larger areas and more rangements for Firefight- • Increase in risks to the community and FRS storm damage. • Increase in ers. personnel. frequency and intensity of • Increase in relief crews storms. and associated costs. • Increased environmental damage. • Higher than • Increase in the number of average wind Blue Light movements. • Economic loss to speeds. community • Longer response times to • Sudden rises in reach incidents. • Lack of available river levels. funding. • Depletion in fire-cover for • Increase in snow/ longer periods over larger • Reduction in other ac- ice/fog areas. tivities i.e. Community Safety and training. • Greater demand on the FSO’s time for PPS25 • Service delivery (flood consultation). response under review. • Change in societal recrea- tion (type, length, place • Negative affect on etc). Performance Indica- tors. • Change in length of time spent in houses (increase • Less time for audits, in winter, decrease in other statutory duties summer). and fire safety activities. • Change in skills required by Service Delivery. • Change in % of time firefighting, leading to change of availability for other work.

Environmental • Water run-off • Contamination – ground, • Legal action against • Recovery of cost from Management – water courses ECFRS pollution ‘cause’ Operational response • Foam Attack • Air pollution • Controlled burn

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 17

Demographics of Essex Demographics of Essex

Background license holders, nationally, are aged Dangerous behaviour by some 25 or under, yet more than a quarter, young car drivers also causes the In order to fulfil our pledge to do (29%), of motor vehicle drivers killed death and injury of their passen- more than we have ever done to are in this age group. gers, who are often in the same age make the people of Essex safer, we The Transport Research Labora- group; more than one in two (54%) must recognise the main risks ap- tory (TRL) Cohort Study found that of car passengers killed or injured plicable to the different groups and age does influence drivers’ accident in 2002 were under 25. Research communities within Essex. Each rates. Eighteen percent of drivers shows that young male drivers aged group may have its own specific who were aged between 17 and 19 17-20 are seven times more likely to needs and therefore our response when they passed their test were in- be involved in a collision than oth- to each group should be sufficiently volved in a road accident in their first er male drivers – but between the flexible in order to meet their particu- year of driving, whereas only 12% hours of 2am and 5am their risk is lar needs. By analysing the demo- of drivers who were aged over 25 17 times higher. graphic environment and identifying when they passed their test had an The number of people injured in developing trends the Service can accident in their first year of driving. road crashes has been steadily fall- modify and improve our future deliv- An 18 year-old is more than three ing in recent years, but the number ery to ensure we continue to provide times as likely to be involved in an of people killed nationally has been a first class emergency service to accident as a 48 year-old. gradually creeping up from 3,409 in the people of Essex..

Young Persons

When examining the risk to life and the well being of young persons (15- 19 year olds) within Essex, two factors present a significant challenge to the Fire and Rescue Service, both now and in the future. The first is to recognise that traffic is the biggest killer of people aged 15-19, due mainly to young/underage and in- experienced drivers taking unneces- sary risks on the road when behind the wheel, often killing their young passengers at the same time. About one in eight (13%) of motor vehicle

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 2002 to 3,508 in 2003. Through agreements and mem- The second factor affecting the 18 When it comes to so-called ‘acci- bership of the ECRB, the Service risk to life and well-being of young dental’ deaths, such as fire, drown- has already committed to: people is arson and its effects, par- ing, poisoning or falls, traffic kills far ticularly in relation to schools. Over more children and young people • Exploit our unique position to the last ten years deliberate fires in than all these events combined. promote road safety buildings have increased nation- Three-quarters of non-medical ally, by 17% from 27,700 in 1993 to deaths among 10-19 year olds are • Extend our existing education 32,500 in 2003. Every week arson in road crashes. This is in contrast to programmes to include road results in 2,213 deliberately started fire deaths in which the lowest rate safety primary fires5, 63 injuries, 2 deaths of fire death occurs within the age and a cost to society of over £42 group 11 to 16. • Continue to support our million. Road traffic has increased since partners in the delivery and Every week around the country, 20 the mid 1980s by almost two-thirds. development of road safety schools suffer an arson attack. Up DVLA figures show that the - over initiatives to 90% of major fires in schools are all number of cars on UK roads thought to be arson. Eighty four per- has increased by 5% compared • Provide a timely response to cent of schools that suffer an arson with 2004, rising from 27,028,102 road traffic collisions (RTCs) attack will have a history of other pri- to 28,390,302. Overall, there are or criminal damage. The estimated 34,390,302 vehicles registered for One project in particular is specifi- number of pupils affected by large use on UK roads. cally aimed at improving the safety school fires is 90,000-100,000 per The current economic climate may of young people on the road. The year as a result of the destruction or slow down the previously predicted Community Wheels project is a damage of classrooms and school increase in road use, however re- road safety initiative that stands as property. This is aside from the ma-

Strategic Assessment of Risk ports in emergency service publica- an example of combining the range jor social and economic disruption tions have highlighted the economic of technical skills, expertise and re- arising from school closures. downturn as a potential catalyst for sources held by partners of the Es- Arson is committed for a variety of increased road traffic collisions and sex Casualty Reduction Board, in reasons and there are many kinds of subsequently deaths and injuries. specific work to target the most at arsonist. Arsonists may not be stran- The rationale behind this is the de- risk. gers to the school and children and crease in new vehicle purchases re- “Community Wheels4” is a pur- adolescents feature prominently. sulting in older vehicles on the road, pose-built, multi-media resource, Fires in schools are most likely to be coupled with the potential for car education, and demonstration ve- started by pupils, ex-pupils or their owners to save money on vehicle hicle. The project will deliver spe- friends, or others with knowledge maintenance and repair, resulting in cific road safety messages to target of the school. Of the 4600 individu- decreased vehicle safety. road users and communities which als prosecuted, cautioned or found The Service is working hard to correspond with high incidents of guilty each year for arson offences, make the county roads a safer place ‘Killed or Seriously Injured (KSIs). almost half are aged from 10 to 166. for people to drive. The topics covered will Compliment Despite these figures, only 150 The Essex Casualty Reduction the THINK! road safety campaign out of 28,000 schools in the UK are Board (ECRB) was set up in January calendar, and include Young Driv- fitted with sprinklers. Sprinklers not 2006 to involve key partners at the ers, Speeding and Drink and Drug only detect the fire; they will sup- highest level to oversee the achieve- Driving, Motorcyclists, and mobile press and control its fire growth, or

ment of targets for casualty reduc- phone and seatbelt compliance. 5 tion. It comprises Essex County All fires in buildings, vehicles and outdoor 4 Community Wheels is a unique project part structures or any fire involving casualties or Council, Essex Police, Essex County rescues or fires attended by five or more Fire and Rescue Service, Highways funded by the Department for Transport under the management of Essex Casualty Reduc- appliances. Agency and the East of England tion Board, of which ECFRS is a key strategic 6 How to combat arson in schools- Fire Safety Ambulance Service. partner. Advice Centre June 2007

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 ultimately extinguish it. These issues are not new to the Fire Service and 19 efforts are already in place to tackle the problems and reduce the risk to life and the financial risk to society and the environment. Within Workplace Fire Safety in Essex County Fire and Rescue we are actively encouraging the instal- lation of sprinklers in schools in an effort to combat the destruction caused following a fire within a school premises.

Risk Analysis

The continued rise in the number of vehicles owned and driven by young persons is likely to result in an increased risk of road traffic collisions (RTCs). This inevitable rise in risk will require an equal response by the Fire and Rescue Service in terms of operational resources and RTC Demographics of Essex reduction initiatives aimed at young persons. Greater demands on the Service will require the most effective use of resources and a constant re-assessment of overall resource levels to ensure these demands are met. Longer-term planning must recognise the impact of increased operational activity in terms of response and prevention.

Firebreak

FireBreak is a highly successful youth inclusion programme for young people aged between 13-17 years old. Research indicates that those young people excluded or at risk of exclusion from school present the highest potential for displaying anti-social behaviour. The FireBreak initiative is designed primarily to address this behaviour. The course runs over five to seven days with a passout demonstration on the last Friday. FireBreak schemes are run throughout the seven Community Commands within Essex.

image: Firebreak Activities

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 20

Diversity Strategic Assessment of Risk

Background in the sixties have now grown and In 2001 only 2.9% of the expanded out from their traditional Essex population belonged to During the last twenty years we bases in London and the North. All Mixed, Black, Asian or Chinese have experienced an unprecedent- this has and will continue to have ethnic groups compared to 9% ed and largely unpredicted rise in an impact within Essex and subse- nationally , however, as Essex grows the number and diversity of peo- quently the work and resources of it is becoming more diverse. The ple entering, working and living in the Fire Service, This large number county’s black and minority ethnic the UK (see figure 9). The collapse of people from all diverse societies (BME) population is growing in line of the former Soviet Union and the is having a large impact on the work with national trends. The term BME subsequent expansion of the Eu- loads within Workplace Fire Safety is used to refer to all ethnic groups ropean Union (EU) have given mil- of ECFRS by the way of increased other than White British in the Cen- lions of people the opportunity to activity from the FSOs by interacting sus classification. Between 2001 travel and work in the UK. The Black with these communities and enforcing and 2020, those belonging to BME and Asian communities established the current fire safety order. groups are expected to account for

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 7 21

Equality and Diversity Men % Women % BME % Disabled % Establishment Figures (figures include Irish April 2009 & White Other)

Whole time 96.7 3.30 2.16 0.56

Retained 98.9 1.04 3.00 0.00

Control 10.5 89.47 2.63 6.38 Diversity

Support 49.0 50.9 7.01 2.94

Total 87.64 12.35 3.11 0.65

70% of the growth in the UK popu- The 2001 Census found that over- action events to allow women and lation aged 16-59 . Most minority crowding in Essex was more preva- BME groups to have a better under- groups appear to have grown con- lent for ethnic groups than amongst standing of the role of a fire-fighter. siderably faster than the White Brit- the white population. This was high- Events include; holding open days; ish group. est amongst the Chinese community. attending diverse community events The general trend across the UK The non-BME community was more and advertising in diverse publica- is for BME populations to cluster to- likely to be owner-occupiers and less tions - for example Black History gether and develop their own com- likely to suffer overcrowding. Month, Pride Life and Network News. munities. No district within Essex has When looking at ethnic groups by Within the Service we have adopted a BME population of more than 10% religion, the 2001 Census (see fig- the National Fire and Rescue Service of its total. Epping Forest and Har- ure 8) found that within Essex: 0.6% Equality and Diversity Strategy 2008- low districts have the highest pro- was Muslim, 0.5% Jewish and 0.4% 2018 which sets out a vision for the portions of BME residents in Essex, Hindu. The highest percentages of Fire and Rescue Service that makes at 8.8% and 8.2% respectively. Al- Muslims were of Bangladeshi and fairness and inclusion fundamental to though clustering within Essex does Pakistani origin. all Fire Service activity. occur, it occurs to a lesser degree than can be seen nationally, and the Most minority groups ECFRS have signed up to the degree to which BME groups inte- appear to have grown stretch targets set by CLG: grate within the local community is considerably faster increasing. The highest percentage • By 2018, 18% of new entrants to of BME groups in Essex can be  than the White the operational sector should be found in the Wivenhoe Cross ward British group. women; in Colchester, home of the University of Essex. We should also recognize The BME population in Essex is • By 2018, recruitment of the White Irish group, particularly in highly qualified and successful in the minority ethnic staff across the the ‘Travelling Community’, Essex labour market. Members of many whole organisation should be has the largest ‘Travellers’ site in the groups are as or more likely to be 14.8% of all applicants UK, in Basildon. in the professional and managerial Age profile differs significantly by groups than the White British majority9 The ability of the Service to meet ethnic group, with BME groups gen- The Service has been actively en- these targets needs to be set against erally having younger populations. gaging in positive action initiatives the context of the financial constraints to improve the diversity of its work- being felt right across the public 7 Standard table S101, Census 2001 National force. The Service runs positive sector. An inevitable consequence of Statistics these constraints will be the rate at 8 Rees and Parsons, 2006 9 Essex Trends 2006 which the Service is able to recruit.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 22 Fig 8 Population breakdown in districts by religous groups Source Essex Resillience Forum Community Risk Register

Population Christian Buddhist Hindu Jewish Muslim Sikh Other Non No Stated Religion

Basildon 165668 121493 318 745 389 943 93 423 12405 28559 Braintree 132179 98116 198 245 197 409 49 334 10178 22453 Brentwood 68456 54242 144 514 198 380 45 178 4141 8614 Castle Point 86608 65528 100 197 202 248 53 238 6600 13442 Chelmsford 157072 117378 344 630 320 1072 85 398 11038 25807 Colchester 155796 111501 549 758 238 1181 117 564 12078 28810 Epping 120896 87582 257 1157 3715 1409 698 317 8750 17011 Forest Harlow 78768 53009 253 310 205 1029 71 169 6098 17624 Maldon 59418 45027 79 62 100 150 29 138 4044 9789 Rochford 78489 59517 88 190 240 168 28 174 5801 12283 Southend 160257 110016 418 935 2721 1958 103 610 13301 30195 Thurrock 143128 107477 244 791 249 1537 995 298 9332 22205 Strategic Assessment of Risk Tendring 138539 105327 174 132 208 322 34 378 11269 20695 Uttlesford 68946 52838 157 94 197 290 23 177 4696 10474 County 1614220 1189051 3323 6760 9179 11096 2423 4396 119731 267961

Migrants public, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Analysis suggests that, although Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia the trend so far has only seen in- The term ‘migrants’ encompasses and Slovenia) meant a significant creasing immigration since EU en- a huge range of individuals from increase in the number of migrants largement, the numbers of immi- numerous countries and with differ- entering the UK. The accession grants is levelling out, with some ent skills who arrive in the UK under of Bulgaria and Romania will keep of this being offset by a section of varying circumstances. Groups of immigration buoyant but will not migrants choosing to return home. persons working away from their na- present the same surge as the A8, Between 1991 and 2001, half of tive lands are often referred to as mi- as their preferred destinations are Britain’s population growth was due grant workers . Migrants have been thought to be Italy and Spain. to immigration, although it is impos- coming to the UK in significant num- - The International Passenger Sur- sible to predict, with any degree of bers since World War II. As a result, vey (IPS) from the Office of National certainty, what will happen next. Fig- migrants have become part of UK Statistics (64,000 in 2005) ure 9 sets out the population chang- society and have contributed to the - The Accession Monitoring Re- es in the UK between 1971 and changes in its economy and social port based on Worker Registration 2001 (BBC: Born Abroad Project structure. Scheme (WRS) figures from the One of the biggest controversies Home Office (over 200,000 in 2005) Illegal Immigrants surrounding immigration is the dif- - National Insurance Number ficulty in determining exactly how (NINo) Allocations to Overseas Na- Finally, within the UK there are many immigrants from the enlarged tionals Entering the UK from the ‘undocumented’ people from all European Union enter the UK; let Department of Work and Pensions over the world, people generally de- alone how many currently reside (estimated 190,000 in 2005) scribed in the media as ‘illegal im- and how many are working in the Whilst recognising these figures migrants’ We know that they work in UK. An example of this inaccuracy are inconsistent they should be a range of sectors from professional of data can be seen in three reports compared to original Home Office to manual work, most of whom may from three government sources with estimates of 5,000 to 13,000 A8 have overstayed their original legal three different figures, on the num- immigrants to demonstrate the un- entry visas to Britain. bers of Accession 8 countries (A8) reliability on data on known migrant Legal status, patterns of immi- immigrants since 2004. inhabitants and workers in the UK. grant integration and social inter-

With the expansion of the EU, 10 action are also importantly related following the collapse of the former Fowler’s Modern English Usage’ to people’s plans for how long they 11 Soviet Union and the former An immigrant is one who comes as a per- intend to stay. Yugoslavia, the inclusion of the ‘Ac- manent resident to a country other than his or Many only plan to work for a short her own native land – Fowler’s Modern English cession 8’ countries (Czech Re- Usage time and then return home, others

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 9 23 1971 1981 1991 2001

All People 52,559,260 53.550,270 54,888,744 57,103,331

People born 2,390,759 2,751,130 3,153,375 4,301,280 abroad

People born abroad 4.55 5.14 5.75 7.53 as %of Total to stay a bit longer, others wish to of Britain is predominantly the story of the largest group of new arrivals. settle permanently. the south. Its economic pull cannot be While immigration to Britain in the There are many other social traits denied. In contrast, population falls in past has been overwhelmingly just a that differentiate migrant groups - some areas have only been prevented small number of nations, recent im- gender and family status are crucial by increased migration. migrants have come from a much variables in determining social and What can be seen now is a vastly wider range of countries.

economic livelihood. For example, more complicated picture of current Such ‘super diverse’ patterns are Diversity most Slovakians, Filipinos and Thais immigrant diversity - a ‘super-diver- hard to capture through frequently in the UK are women (70-80%), sity’, in fact. The Service will need to used categories for describing eth- while most Algerians, Kosovars and re-think the nature of multiculturalism nic groups such as ‘White’, ‘Black’ Afghans are men (60-70%). Some in the UK as both a condition, and and ‘Asian’ - and almost certainly groups are more prone to consist a set of policies that addresses that this largely unrecorded and growing of young families, others of single condition. diversity will have an impact on the people. Fire and Rescue Service. A wider range of countries means a greater variety and complexity of Fig 10 cultures, languages, religions, social structures and practices with which firefighters will come into contact on a daily basis. They will need a heightened degree of understanding and cultural awareness to ensure their actions and behaviours are not misunderstood or wrongly interpret- ed. There will be a likewise need to inform and educate the different na- tionalities of the role and responsibilities of the Fire and Rescue Service. Lack of communication and understanding created by language barriers may impact adversely on workplace fire safety, community safety and operational response; from receiving emergency calls at Control to directing our crews’ searching in a building. It is unrealistic to expect firefighters to learn the many languages which may be spoken within their areas, but they will need to know how to access in- terpreters if need be. As the number and diversity of people living in Es- Conclusion Affects of Increased Diversity and sex increases so will the desire to Immigration on the Fire Service reflect those communities within the Every region of Britain has experienced migratory change – but there Britain is one of the most diverse 12 Home Fire Safety Visits provide households are great differences in the rates of societies in the world. In recent with free advice on all aspects of fire safety change, the actual numbers and who years and for the first time since in the home. A free smoke alarm will also be the newcomers are. records began in the 1970s, immi- fitted during the visit, with fire service staff explaining how to maintain it correctly and London continues to see the great- grants from outside the Common- how to develop and carry out a fire action est change - and the immigration story wealth and Europe have made up plan in the event of a fire.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 workforce of Essex. 24 The latest figures have shown that the majority of immigrants entering the UK are now from areas outside the EU. Many will be unfamiliar with basic practices within the home and the safe use of electrical appliances. Those entering from Third World countries are likely to be living in over- crowded conditions in the more deprived areas of Essex. This low cost accommodation is becoming a larger problem due to these premises now coming under the current fire safety order. This will in itself, create a new high risk group which will need to be identified and responded to by the WFS Officer in the form of fire safety enforcement, education and Home Fire Safety Visit’s (HFSVs) . It is almost impossible to predict the level of immigration in the next 20 years, however current evidence indicates it will continue to rise over the next 10

Strategic Assessment of Risk years at least.

Risk Analysis

Evidence has shown that migrants and illegal immigrants may often be living and working in conditions which are likely to place them at high risk from death or injury from fire. The emergence of this new high risk group is in danger of going unnoticed and unrecorded if the Service fails to engage with the ethnic and migrant community. The Service will need to ensure that it has suitable partnerships in place in order to obtain and record the necessary information. The Service will need to examine its own diversity make-up to ensure that it is able to meet the needs of its whole community.

image: The diversity of Essex

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 25

Older People in Essex Older People in Essex Older People

Background has nearly 30%. The Office of Na- homes will almost certainly increase. tional Statistics also identifies a dif- It should be noted that this type of The population of Essex is age- ference in the number of pensioners premises has been a significant con- ing. Between 1991 and 2001, the in urban districts at 18% and rural tributor to the number of unwanted number of over 65s grew by 12%, districts with 22% (see figure 11 ). automatic fire alarms attended by over twice as much as the overall the Service. increase in the population of Essex Ethnicity These increasing numbers of (5%). The number of very old people elderly are impacting on Workplace has grown by the most considerable The vast majority of older people Fire Safety (WFS) in a number of amount, with a 44% rise in over 85s. in Essex are from the ‘White British’ ways. There are an increasing num- The growth in this ‘older’ bracket in ethnic group. However, the propor- bers of Residential Homes. These Essex is considerably higher than tion of people from non-white eth- homes are providing an intense level that seen nationally, 44% compared nic groups is higher in younger age of care which is further stretching to 30% nationally (see figure 11). groups, so they are likely to make the boundaries of current regula- up an increasing proportion of older tions and guidance, causing more Health people in the future. time being spent by the WFS Officer addressing fire safety matters. Along with an increase in life ex- Housing Also with in Essex all our Hospitals pectancy, people are experiencing are under going major development better health for longer. Although In 2001 Essex had fewer than and refurbishment which is leading health tends to decline with age, the 180,000 households with someone to more consultation work for the age at which people generally begin of pensionable age, representing a Fire Safety Officer. to experience poor health has risen. third of the total households in Es- Health workers warn that they are sex. Of this total, 80,000 lived alone The concentration of over 65s will now caring for people who are expe- with pensioners being more likely in increase dramatically as the baby riencing the same number of years general to live alone than younger boom children of post war settlers of severe disability, as previous gen- people. The majority of pensioners reach retirement. This nation wide erations, but at an older age. own their property outright. There problem will be magnified in Essex: has also been a significant rise in the over 13% of local people are within Distribution number of people living in commu- ten years of their sixty fifth birthday; nal establishments. At 75-84 years over 26% are within twenty years. Within Essex there is significant of age it is 3% , rising to 16% for the As more people retire, we will see variation between Tendring and oth- over 85s. With the expected growth a steep change in the ratio of older er districts. While the pensionable in this ‘older’ bracket this figure people to working age people. There age in all other districts covers a 4% should rise further and subsequent- were 3 working age people for every range from 17% to 21%, Tendring ly the number of residential care older person in 2003; we can expect

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 11 26 Population by Age and Gender, Essex and Districts Source Essex Resillience Forum Community Risk Register Population Males Female 0-14 15-29 30-64 65+ Basildon 165668 80035 85633 33208 30976 77088 24396 Braintree 132179 65060 67119 26120 22085 64217 19757 Brentwood 68456 33203 35253 12221 10634 32993 12608 Castle Point 86608 42319 44289 15514 14203 42117 10405 Chelmsford 157072 77428 79644 29333 28966 75759 22984 Colchester 155796 77123 78673 29100 31859 71887 22950 Epping 120896 58608 62288 22402 19496 58606 20392 Forest Harlow 78768 38217 40551 15896 15523 35769 11580 Maldon 59418 29452 29966 11443 9007 29865 9103 Rochford 78489 38139 40350 14572 12270 37943 13704 Southend 160257 76749 83508 30185 27287 72043 30742 Thurrock 143128 69669 73459 29566 28330 66553 18679 Tendring 138539 66265 72274 22777 18657 61047 36058

Strategic Assessment of Risk Uttlesford 68946 34344 34602 13236 10530 34657 10533 County 1614220 786611 827609 305573 279823 760544 263891

to see only 2.2 in 2008. Essex will that potentially raises the risk of fire Service become more effective in see increases not just in over 65s, deaths increasing within the county its marketing and communication but in the over 75 and over 85s too. by the year 2020. strategies that focus on higher risk By 2028, Essex’s over 85’s popula- There appears to be no reason groups, it must also work more tion will have doubled from 26,800 why the preference for older people closely with Adult Social Care and to over 58,200. This could have a within Essex to retire to Tendring and other key partners. This closer profound effect on the Service as coastal areas should not continue working relationship should fo- over 65s are considered as one of and consequently the level of per- cus on shared data and shared our “At Risk Groups”. This will also sons ‘most at risk in these areas’ to outcomes, mutualy contributing to have a profound affect on local gov- subsequently rise. joint success. ernment as this will place a large fi- The number of ethnic minority nancial burden upon them. people within the elderly group can Risk Analysis also be expected to rise over the What future risks arise from the next twenty year period; many will Evidence has shown that those older population group? have lived in the UK for most of their persons aged 80 years and over adult life with problems such as lan- represent the highest risk group in Publications by the National guage being less of an issue. How- terms of deaths or injuries as a result Statistics office into fires and fire- ever, as minority community groups of fires in the home. The statistics related deaths, during the period grow their interaction with communi- clearly point to an increasingly older 2000-2005, show that the major- ties outside of their own may reduce, population in Essex with life expect- ity of deaths occurred in dwelling particularly for elderly relatives who ancy reaching well into the eighties. fires. The highest fire fatality rates subsequently join the communities The risk of an increase in deaths and were people aged 80+. Although created by their children. injuries, as a result of fires, within this fire deaths overall continue to fall age group is an obvious one and the those persons in the over 80s group What does this mean for the Fire Service must ensure its longer-term consistently have the highest death Service? planning reflects the need to provide rates compared to the age group sufficient resources to carry out the 11 to 16, which consistently has the A rise in the number of older peo- necessary HFSVs and partnership lowest fire-related death rates. ple will by virtue place more people working to reduce this growing risk. Although the older population of in the “highest risk from fire’ catego- Essex is increasing, the health and ry. It is clear from existing information general mobility and well-being of that other agencies, such as Adult the elderly is also improving. It is Social Care and Help the Aged, have the ‘above average growth rate’ of a higher degree of interaction with the over 80s group, living alone in these groups than the Fire Service. domestic dwellings, within Essex Therefore, not only must the

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 12 27 Health Inequalities: Essex (Including Southend-on-sea and Thurrock) Copyright (Source PFK Audit Commission)

Years of Potential Life Lost Indicator 2000-2003 at Lower Super Output Area.

The Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) indicator is an annual, age adjusted, rate of years of potential life lost per 1000 population. So a figure of 200 for an SOA indicates that 200 years of potential years of life, after adjustment, have been lost per 1000 members of the population over a year. For example, other things being equal, the death of two one year old children (74.5 x 2, years lost) and one 24 year old (51 years lost) in an SOA with a population of 1000 would result in a YPLL figure of 200. The years lost are calculated as 75 minus age at death. Older People in Essex Older People

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 13 28 Essex Operational Area – Accidental Dwelling Fires from 2006/07 to 2007/08 and years of potential Life Lost. (Source PFC Audit Commission) Strategic Assessment of Risk

The white markers represent individual accidental dwelling fires from the period of 2006-2009. This has been overlaid on the potential life lost due to health inequalities.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 14 29 All Dwelling Fires 2005 - 2008 Older People in Essex Older People

The blue circles represent areas where a small number of dwelling fires have occurred. Areas of light blue show where there is more of a concentration of multiple dwelling fires. Yellow markers represent fire injuries and red markers represent fatal fires.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 15 30 Areas of deprivation in Essex Indicies of Multiple Deprivation 2007 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Figures 12 to 15 shows that our dwelling fires are mostly in our more densely populated areas and using the demographics from partner agency’s we can see that these areas are also the most deprived and where the life expectancy is low

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Demographics 31

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities Consequences Consequences

Demographics in Essex • Increase in the • Unrepresentative work- • Increase in economic • Opportunities to changing causing an number of vehi- force. loss. improve the care of increase in the number cles, driven by the elderly and the of persons considered young persons. • Increase in the number of • Increase in Service education of the young to be at a high risk from un-wanted AFA’s. costs. through the promotion fire (including those 80+ • Increase in the of passive and proac- years), an increase in Road number of im- • Increase in the number of • Lack of available tive fire suppression/ Traffic Collisions commu- migrants living and fire deaths and injuries. funding. detection systems in nication with an increasing working in Essex. domestic premises and immigrant community. the delivery of more • Greater demand for Com- • Lack of awareness intelligent and focussed • Increase in the di- munity Safety services amongst migrant road traffic safety NB – The 2012 Games versity of persons (HFSV’s). community of services education. will create a short term living in Essex. available. impact on local de- • Increase in primary fires. • Support of migrant mographics in terms • Increase in older • Services not informed of day and short term integration through persons who will • Greater demand for spe- by local need. visitors, occupancy rates recruitment/CFS work be entering the cialist skills (translators, Demographics of domestic premises, over 80s age community workers). • Increase in enforce- ethnicity, nationality and group in the next 5 ment action due to language factors and 10 years. • Greater demand on fire- poor understanding of fighting resources. UK regulations. • Change in Local Authority provision • Difficulty in reaching high • Lack of Service for the elderly and risk groups (data collec- uptake. wider vulnerable tion). sections of our • Reduction in other community. • Increase in the number of activities i.e. training. Blue Light movements. • Negative impact on • Increased consultations PIs. with Workplace Fire Safety staff. • Increase in audits of high risk premises. • Increase in use of FSO’s time to organise and take • Change in FRS part in preventative work. ‘Standing’ or ‘Brand’ as a result of ‘cultural’ • Greater need for Data change in community. Analyst to provide information for intelligence • Change in allocation led activities. of CFS resources.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 32

Human and Animal Health Strategic Assessment of Risk

Human and animal diseases are and non-pandemic human disease world, it is therefore possible that a matters that Essex County Fire & is shown below. new infection could spread rapidly Rescue Service has to take account The Service experienced the before it is detected, and be trans- of in order to ensure we maintain consequences of the 2009 Swine mitted to the UK. New diseases service delivery. A UK wide epi- Flu pandemic, following the World therefore pose a potential threat to demic, or the impact on the UK of Health Organisation escalations and the health of the UK population, and a pandemic offer two lines of threat the subsequent arrival of the disease may present social and economic to the Service; one is staff becom- in the UK. That caused the imple- challenges. ing infected directly, or finding mentation of the Service Critical Inci- themselves having to support their dent Team. Swine Flu had little over- Animal Diseases families through illness; the other all impact on service delivery13, but it is operating in an infected environ- could have if the nature of the virus There has been a number of cases ment. Whilst we have business con- was more virulent. Over the past 25 of significant animal disease in the tinuity arrangements for a sudden years, more than 30 new, or newly UK with Foot and Mouth Disease and ongoing loss of staff through recognised, infections have been and Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) being periods of illness, these have not identified around the world. The pat- the most notable recent examples. been fully tested, nor can they be tern of known infections also chang- When considering the likelihood until and unless a severe epidemic es as the areas where disease is of such outbreaks, scale should or a pandemic strikes, during which constantly present expand beyond be taken into account. There have normal life is likely to face wide social traditional limits. Most of these new- been a number of more frequent and economic disruption; significant ly recognised infections are zoonotic but smaller-scale examples in recent threats to the continuity of essential – they are naturally transmissible, years but large national outbreaks services; lower production levels; directly or indirectly, between verte- are less frequent. shortages; and distribution difficul- brate animals and humans. By their Non-zoonotic diseases are those ties. Individual organisations may very nature, zoonotic infections can that cannot be transmitted to hu- suffer from a pandemic’s impact on be more challenging to monitor. mans. Swift action is still needed, staff absenteeism, thereby reducing Although it is unlikely that a new however, in order to contain the the services available. infectious disease would originate spread of certain listed or notifiable in the UK, it is highly probable that diseases. As well as Foot and Mouth Human Diseases one could emerge in another coun- Disease, other examples are Classi- try. Given the ease and speed with cal Swine Fever, Bluetongue and Human diseases can take a vari- which people can travel around the Newcastle Disease (of birds). ety of forms and consequently their Movement restriction regimes and impacts can vary considerably in on-farm controls will also limit the 13 The Service experienced 28 staff off work both scale and nature. The National with Swine Flu, covering a total of 227 (approx) spread of disease. These restrictions Risk Register profile for pandemic working days lost. may also impact on our attendances

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 in the UK. The virus historically oc- there may be between 50,000 curs in Africa, mainland Europe, the and 750,000 additional deaths 33 Middle East, West and Central Asia by the end of a pandemic. and for the first time in the USA in 1999 where it is now considered en- • Normal life is likely to face wide demic. social and economic disruption; Rabies is a fatal viral disease of significant threats to the conti- the nervous system that can affect nuity of essential services; lower all mammals including humans. The production levels; shortages; disease is usually spread by saliva and distribution difficulties. from the bite of an infected animal. Classical Rabies has long been • Individual organisations may suf- eradicated from the UK. Controls on fer from the pandemic’s impact the import of susceptible animals, on staff absenteeism therefore including the pet travel scheme and reducing the services available. quarantine, help protect against infected animals entering the UK. The potential effects on society at large cannot be predicted, but are Risk Analysis likely to be profound. The impact of an influenza pandemic will not be The most notable influenza pan- confined to a building, or a highly demic of the last century occurred defined geographical area. In con- if routes are blocked, or detours re- in 1918–19 and is often referred sequence the potential for a con-

quired. If an infected farm is the site to as ‘Spanish flu’. It caused seri- siderable to severe disruption to our Human and Animal Health of an emergency, actions such as ous illness, with an estimated 20– Service, as well as to Society, is plain vehicle washing down will require 40 million deaths worldwide (with in a worst case scenario. special attention. peak mortality rates in people aged The Service Influenza Pandemic Zoonotic notifiable animal dis- 20–45) as well as major disruption. Business Continuity Plan takes ac- eases are those diseases that can In the UK alone there were an esti- count of make arrangements to: be transmitted naturally between mated 228,000 additional deaths14 vertebrate animals and humans. . While the pandemics in 1957 and Continue to perform the core The ease with which zoonotic dis- 1968 (often referred to as ‘Asian’ and functions of the Service, by making ease transmission occurs varies ‘Hong Kong’ flu respectively) were provision for ensuring that they can by disease; for Highly Pathogenic much less severe, they also caused continue to the extent required, i.e., Avian Influenza (H5N1 – an Influenza significant illness levels – mainly in fire fighting, road traffic collisions, A virus), for example, it is relatively the young and the elderly – and an and other emergencies; uncommon and requires specific cir- estimated 1–4 million deaths world- cumstances. Only intense exposure wide between them. The H1N1 virus • Manage other business as of a person to birds that are infected has generally caused mild disease efficiently as necessary and as with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influ- but has caused more severe disease required; enza is likely to allow transmission of in some people. this disease to humans. Experts agree that there is a high • Be prepared to support our Highly Pathogenic Avian Influen- probability of another influenza pan- Essex Resilience Forum, (ERF), za has been recorded in poultry in demic occurring, and this probabil- partners as required; the UK several times over the last ity is unchanged, regardless of the few years. Migratory wild birds can timing of the recent Swine Flu pan- • Play our part in civic and spread and introduce it by direct and demic. It is impossible to forecast its community leadership, indirect contact. It can also be intro- exact timing or the precise nature duced by mechanical transmission; of its impact. Based on historical • Think out of the box in looking that is, physically carried by infected information, scientific evidence and for solutions to unforeseen material. modelling, the following impacts are problems as they occur. West Nile Virus is a viral infection possible: mainly of birds, horses and humans, Reduction, readiness, response, spread by the bite of infected mos- • Many millions of people around reconstitution, recovery quitoes which can cause encepha- the world will become infected, litis (inflammation of the brain) or causing global disruption and Responses to animal emergencies meningitis (inflammation of the lining a potential humanitarian crisis. must take account of the current en- of the brain and spinal cord). Infec- The World Health Organization vironment, that is, if there is a known tion by West Nile Virus has never estimates that between 2 million outbreak of, e.g. Foot and Mouth, been identified in horses or humans and 7.4 million deaths may oc- appropriate precautions would be cur globally. required by attending crews, as well as mitigations measures being 14 Additional deaths are deaths that would not have happened over the same period of time • Up to one half of the UK popu- available on Stations. had a pandemic not taken place. lation may become infected and

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 34 Disease

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities Consequences Consequences

Human Health issues • Influenza (or simi- • Reduced work- • Unrepresentative work- • Review of operational lar) Epidemic force (subject to force. policies nature of outbreak) • Influenza (or simi- over a prolonged • Increase in the number of • New Partnerships lar) Pandemic period of time un-wanted AFA’s. • Funding • SARS outbreak • Possible high • Increase in the number of numbers of loss of fire deaths and injuries. • Accidental Biologi- life (not job related) cal Release leading to use of • Greater demand for Com- (imploding) key munity Safety services Station policy. (HFSV’s).

• Operational • Increase in primary fires. personnel staying away from work to • Greater demand for spe- look after family. cialist skills (translators, community workers). • Operational activity slowed by mitiga-

Strategic Assessment of Risk tion actions.

• Recovery may take longer than ‘cause’ is live (to allow firefighters to return to work).

• Potential for requests to be involved in covert ‘out of scope’ activities (e.g. body recovery).

Animal Health issues • Non-zoonotic • Training notifiable animal diseases (Foot & • Decontamination Mouth, Classic regimes for FF and Swine Fever, Blue vehicles Tongue & New- castle’s Disease) • Raised awareness

• Zoonotic notifiable • USAR search dog animal disease quarantine. (e.g. highly pathogenic Avian • Potential for Influenza, Rabies, requests to be West Nile Virus) involved in covert ‘out of scope’ activities (e.g. body recovery).

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 35

County Development & Transport Infrastructure

Background els of commuters are pushing road Essex is one of the fastest growing Infrastructure County Development & Transport and rail networks to the limit, result- counties in the country in terms of Essex covers a large and diverse ing in heavy traffic congestion and infrastructure with numerous ambi- area, parts of which are highly urban- cramped, overloaded trains. Based tious development plans covering ised with concentrations of industrial, on the current infrastructure net- housing, sea and air ports and social commercial and residential develop- work the expected expansion in land regeneration. Most of the development and parts of which are largely development, housing and busi- ment plans, whilst generating eco- rural, indeed 70% of Essex is rural. ness is only going to compound the nomic benefit, will also impact on the Travel patterns are influenced by the situation. county’s infrastructure and in particu- proximity to London, Europe, inter- lar its transport network. national gateways and the dispersed What is the present volume of Internal commuting equates to settlement pattern. Many people movements? over 300,000 internal trips within Es- travel long distances to work and sex. With the exception of London nearly a quarter work outside of Es- At present Essex road and rail net- there is limited out-commuting from sex. The Essex coastline is a major works take well over half a million Essex to adjoining counties and centre for sailing and water-sports, people to and from work everyday. this tends to be balanced by similar and there are many tourist attractions They support people and goods numbers of in-commuters to Essex. in Essex and the East of England going to and from one of the world’s In January 2009, the Essex Chief which generate substantial volumes largest cities, London; Europe’s fast- Executives Associations (Economic of traffic during holiday periods.The est growing airport, London Stanst- and Housing Issues Sub-Group) downside to increased prosperity ed; and some of the nation’s busiest stated in their Strategic Countywide has been the impact on the county’s port complexes at Harwich Interna- Economic & Housing Issues publica- transport network; increasing lev- tional, Felixstowe and Shell Haven. tion that the housing and economic

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 15a 36

Internal Commuting Journeys External Commuting Journeys

Essex 384,100 Essex to London 112,200

London to Essex 23,340

Essex to Hertfordshire 15,970

Hertfordshire to Essex 13,560

Essex to Cambridgeshire 3,190

Cambridgeshire to Essex 3,550 Strategic Assessment of Risk Essex to Suffolk 9,570

Suffolk to Essex 8,870

Essex Issues Jan 2009- Strategic Countywide Economic & Housing Issues growth that Essex has delivered in and its ability to accommodate fur- Furthermore, the paper states that the past 30 years or so has not been ther growth. In January 2009, the those needs are significant and wide matched by sufficient infrastruc- Essex Chief Executives Associations ranging. The greatest need focuses ture needs. Furthermore, the paper (Economic and Housing on a range of significant transporta- states that those needs are signifi- Issues Sub-Group) stated in their tion (road, rail and passenger trans- cant and wide ranging. The great- Strategic Countywide Economic & port) improvements, the delivery of est need focuses on a range of sig- Housing Issues publication that the which is critical to the longer term nificant transportation (road, rail and housing and economic growth that prosperity of the County and its abil- passenger transport) improvements, Essex has delivered in the past 30 ity to accommodate further growth. the delivery of which is critical to the years or so has not been matched longer term prosperity of the County by sufficient infrastructure needs.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 15b 37 Across Essex the most significant transportation infrastructure requirements can be identified as:

ECFRS Community Nationally Significant Regionally Significant Locally Significant Command Area

Colchester and Bathside Bay North Colchester Rapid Transit link Colchester park and ride Tendring A12 Improvements and A133 improvements Hythe Station improvements A120 Improvements Colchester research park Colchester Urban transport East Colchester rapid transit link package Colchester public realm/town centre Regeneration/master improvements planning package for Harwich, Walton Clacton and Jaywick.

Braintree and Uttlesford M25 improvements A120 improvements Braintree branch line Chelmsford and Maldon junctions 27 – 31 North east Chelmsford bypass Chelmsford park and ride Thurrock and Brentwood A12 improvements North east Chelmsford Rail Station Chelmsford and Maldon Chelmsford area rapid transit flood alleviation Army & Navy junction improvements Local Maldon/Braintree highway improvements Chelmsford new secondary school

Braintree and Uttlesford M11 junction 7 im- A414 bypass and new M11 Harlow town centre Harlow and Epping provements and junction transport improvements County Development & Transport Infrastructure County Development & Transport improvements to Harlow sewage treatment Stansted airport works upgrading access A120 Improvements

Basildon and Castle Point M25 widening junctions South Essex Rapid Transport Roscommon way regeneration Southend and Rochford 26 – 31 A13/A130 Sadlers Farm Intersection (Castle Point) Thurrock and Brentwood ShellHaven A127 and A1159 improvements Fryerns/Craylands Gardiners lane south access regeneration access improvements (Basildon) C2C Line capacity A13 Passenger Transport Corridor

Essex Issues Jan 2009- Strategic Countywide Economic & Housing Issues

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 16 38 Travel networks and travel gateways in Essex Source: Now We’re Moving More Freely, Safely and Efficiently, Essex County Council Strategic Assessment of Risk

Figure 16 shows the travel networks and travel gateways in Essex

Fig 17 Current congestion Source: Now We’re Moving More Freely, Safely and Efficiently, Essex County Council

Figure 17 shows current congestion on the roads of Essex

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 18 39 Congestion in 2021 without necessary investment Source: Now We’re Moving More Freely, Safely and Efficiently, Essex County Council

Figure 18 shows the congestion on Essex Roads in 2021 without the necessary investment the travel networks County Development & Transport Infrastructure County Development & Transport and travel gateways in Essex

Fig 19 Congestion in 2021 even with investment Source: Now We’re Moving More Freely, Safely and Efficiently, Essex County Council

Figure 19 shows the congestion on Essex roads in 2021 even with investment. If you compare this with figure 17 you can see that the congestion in 2021 will reflect the same congestion that we experience today however there would be an increase in volume of traffic of around 25%.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Housing and population growth seaports, inland ports and traffic Highways Agency to improve the 40 management systems, to provide A12 between the M25 and the A14 Out of the four major national long-distance high-speed routes for into a high quality reliable route ca- growth areas selected by the Gov- the movement of people and freight pable of meeting the demands of ernment, two will have a direct bear- throughout Europe. A decision to businesses and individuals in order ing on Essex – the Thames Gateway adopt Ten-T was made by the Euro- to stimulate economic activity and and the London to Peterborough pean Parliament and Council in July improve strategic accessibility.” M11 corridor. It is envisaged that 1996, and as a result of this, the EU Sir David Rowlands, Professor these areas, along with others, will works to promote the networks by Stephen Glaister, Dr David Quarm- see significant increases in hous- a combination of leadership, coor- by and Lord Whitty were invited by ing stock growth. As the key driver dination, issuing of guidelines, and Essex County Council to hold an of economic and housing growth the funding of aspects of develop- independent inquiry into the needs within the East of England, Essex is ment through a series of projects. of the A12. being asked to deliver 131,000 jobs The Channel Tunnel Rail Link is one The report made 28 recommen- and 127,000 homes for the period example of a TEN-T project. dations, among them a call to up- 2001-2021. Whilst the current glo- grade the route to a modern dual bal recession will inevitably have Trans-European Roads within lane standard, and the creation of an impact, the review of the East of Essex an “A12 Alliance” to bring together England Plan may well lead to Essex local groups with an interest in the being asked to deliver at or beyond • The M11 & M25 route and called for the funding for these levels of growth in the period the creation of a ‘blue light’ service from 2021 onwards (see figure 20 • The A12, from the M25 to the to deal with congestion on the route. and figure 21). It has been estimated A14 south of Ipswich The new A12 Alliance patrols, op- that these new dwellings will gener- erated by Essex Police Officers, are

Strategic Assessment of Risk ate over 500,000 extra road move- • The A120 from the M11 at dedicated to reaching and dealing ments (see figure 15a) per day on Stansted to Harwich with incidents even more quickly to the Essex road network. ensure that congestion is kept to a Essex has over 7000km of main- A12 Alliance minimum. tainable road network. Our road and The new patrol unit consists of rail networks take over half a million The A12 between the M25 and the three sergeants, 15 constables and people to and from work everyday, A14 is the key route through eastern three patrol vehicles, funded by and the majority of these journeys Essex and south east Suffolk, but is an Essex County Council grant of are taken by car, particularly to com- classified only as a route of “region- £1.5million. mute15. The average Essex com- al” rather than national importance mute is around 10 miles. National on the Highways Agency network. trends show that fewer children are Essex County Council wishes “to walking to school and that more are persuade the Government and the travelling by car. As prosperity in Es- sex has increased so has the level of car ownership, reaching 1.3 for every household. The result is that 29% of Essex’s strategic highway is operating beyond its practical capacity.

The Trans-European Transport Network

The Trans-European Transport Networks are a planned set of road, rail, air and water transport networks designed to serve the entire conti- nent of Europe. The Networks are a subsidiary part of a larger vision for a wider range of Trans-European Net- works (TENs) first outlined in a Euro- pean Parliament 1993 White Paper on growth, competitiveness, and employment; the transport network is known as TEN-T. Ten-T envisages coordinated improvements to primary roads, railways, inland waterways, airports,

15 Essex Trends 2006

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 20 41 Population by districts within Essex Source: Essex Resillience Forum Community Risk Register

Population Size (Hectares) Density Basildon 165668 11003 15.06 Braintree 132179 61171 2.16 Brentwood 68456 15312 4.47 Castle Point 86608 4507 19.22 Chelmsford 157072 33879 4.64 Colchester 155796 32910 4.73 Epping Forest 120896 33899 3.57 Harlow 78768 3054 25.79 Maldon 59418 35890 1.66 Rochford 78489 16950 4.63 Southend 160257 4176 38.38 Thurrock 143128 16338 8.76 Tendring 138539 33773 4.10 Uttlesford 68946 64118 1.08 County 1614220 366980 4.40 County Development & Transport Infrastructure County Development & Transport

Fig 21 Regional Spatial Strategy Number of new homes by 2021 Source: Further Proposed Changes to East of England Plan - Draft Version to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England Version October 2007

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 22 42 Predicated Population Growth in Essex by Districts Source: Essex Resillience Forum Community Risk Register

2001 Population 2006 Population 2031 Population Forecast Basildon 165668 168600 194600 Braintree 132179 139700 180800 Brentwood 68456 70900 86,800 Castle Point 86608 88600 100500 Chelmsford 157072 162800 198500 Colchester 155796 170800 251400 Epping Forest 120896 122900 143100 Harlow* 78768 78100 82600 Maldon 59418 61,700 74,400 Rochford 78489 81100 95100 Southend 160257 159900 179900 Thurrock 143128 148900 183200 Tendring 138539 144600 191400

Strategic Assessment of Risk Uttlesford 68946 71400 85800 Essex Total 1614220 1670000 2048000

Essex Issues Jan 2009- Strategic Countywide Economic & Housing Issues & Essex Resilence Forum Community Register

* Much of the growth around Harlow will take place in adjoining districts beyond the boundaries of Harlow District, including urban extensions in Epping Forest and East Hertfordshire. Essex Issues Jan 2009- Strategic Countywide Economic & Housing Issues& Essex Resilence Forum Community Register

The population of Essex is grow- of 1416.9 square miles. There were East of England plan places a con- ing because those who already live 564,404 dwellings in Essex in mid siderable emphasis upon Essex in in England, especially London, see 2002, which represents a rise of 9% terms of meeting national economic Essex as a place where they can since 1992. Basildon, Colchester and housing growth targets. Within better themselves and improve their and Chelmsford districts have the Essex the plan proposes the delivery quality of life. most dwellings in Essex, but Maldon of 127,000 homes and 131,000 jobs and Braintree had the largest pro- in the period 2001-2021. Population Density portional rise in the number of dwellings since 1992. 3,582 new houses Essex’s population was 1,614,200 were built in 2002, the most being in 2001, which represents a 5% in- built in Braintree district and the crease over the previous 10 years. least in Brentwood and Castle Point. This growth is above the UK aver- Even with the current recession age and is contained in a total area Essex’s expansion continues and the

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Stansted Airport New Terminal 43

Airport growth - Stansted 2011 and open in 2015. • In 2006 over 31 million tourists The airport would thereafter be built visited the UK spending some As well as road and rail, Essex has in phases and by around 2030 the ex- £18 billion. There were a total the UK’s third largest airport with fa- panded airport would be able to ac- of 2.1 million overseas visitors cilities for up to 25 million passen- commodate a throughput of 68 million to the East of England in 2006, gers per annum. It is also the UK’s passengers per annum (mppa). generating expenditure of some third largest freight airport resulting £880 million. in a high volume of HGV movements. Stansted served almost 23.8 mil- The British Airport Authorities (BAA) lion passengers in the 12 months • Overseas visitors account for most recent count suggests that al- ending December 2007. In passen- 17% of total visitors to the East most two-thirds of Stansted’s pas- ger terms this made it the 3rd busiest of England and 41% of spend- sengers travel to the airport by car, airport in the UK (after Heathrow and ing in the region. while 80% of employees travel to Gatwick), and placed it in the top 50 work in cars with only one occupant of the world’s leading airports. Essex is also home to London The Government’s Airport White In summer 2008 there are 32 Southend airport which is due to un- Paper stated that a second runway scheduled and charter passenger dergo dramatic development. The at Stansted should be provided to airlines flying to 165 destinations. development has been split into 2

supply further airport capacity for Stansted serves a catchment area distinct phases. Phase one started Infrastructure County Development & Transport the South East. Initially a US air force of over 12 million people in the East in 2007 and is aimed for completion base, Stansted is now the fastest of England, London and the wider in 2010. This significant programme growing airport in Europe and ac- South East. includes a new control tower, dedi- commodates 22 million passengers cated railway station, a 4 star, 131 a year at present. • Over 180 companies and agen- bedroom hotel, car park and im- Plans are currently being consid- cies are located on-airport; proved terminal building. Phase one ered to increase passenger move- employing between them over is well underway with the new train ments to 35 million by 2015 making 11,700 people, 80% of whom station and Control Tower due for it the busiest single runway airport in live in Essex and Hertfordshire. completion in the late summer of the world. If a second runway is de- 2010. Phase two involves the build- veloped passenger numbers would • Stansted’s direct contribution to ing of an entirely new, re-sited termi- rise to over 70 million a year, making the regional economy is estimat- nal building and a runway extension. it busier than Heathrow Airport to- ed to be in excess of £400 The latter will allow the airport to day (see figure 23). This growth will accommodate the new generation have a direct impact on the transport • million a year, and this is forecast of medium capacity, high-efficiency network as passengers will need to to rise as the airport continues jets being adopted by regional air- arrive and leave from the airport. to grow. lines operating scheduled flights Research by Essex County Coun- and shorter range holiday charters. cil has identified that if the second • The airport, as one of the re- This development phase is due to runway is developed, average car gion’s principal international start construction in late 2010 and journeys to and from Stansted could gateways, is a key driver for is expected to be completed by increase from 40,000 to 195,000 economic development in the September 2012 in advance of the additional movements per day. It East of England 2012 Olympics. At present London also highlighted that the average Southend airport employs 1300 number of daily rail journeys could • In 2007 the airport’s cargo op- staff and 51,169 passengers used increase from 12,600 to 40,000. eration transported almost the airport in 2007. It is expected If plans are approved, BAA is plan- 204,000 tonnes of goods with that in 2017 the airport will expand ning for the first phase of the devel- an estimated value of over £23 to employ around 2300 staff and 2 opment, including the second run- billion. million passengers per year will pass way, to commence construction in through the airport gates.

16 The airport capacity is limited to a maximum throughput of 25 million passengers per annum (25mppa) in accordance with recommendations made by the public inquiry in 1984 and confirmed by the Government of the day. 17 Understanding our County – Where we are now and the challenges ahead. Essex County Council 2006. 18 Information from Southend Airport Community News Letter.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 44 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Top left, Top right and centre Image Copyright Southend Airport

Fig 23

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Bathside Bay Harwich 45 Copyright Hutchinson Ports

Fig 24 County Development & Transport Infrastructure County Development & Transport Port Growth

Essex has substantial port facili- Dubai World ties with Harwich International Port Copyright DP World developing into one of the UK’s leading multi-purpose facilities. In 2008 over 2.5 million tonnes of imports were shipped to Harwich, and over 1.9 million shipped out. The port is also one of the UK’s largest passenger ferry terminals. This resulted in some 244,000 cars and 363,000 heavy goods vehicles passing through the port last year. Tilbury Docks is another of the UK’s deep- sea container ports which is situated within Essex, covering an area of Fig 25 450 acres. It is capable of handling large container ships as well as lux- Harwich International Port the sec- terminal in the Thames Gateway on ury passenger liners and the collec- ond largest container port in the the Shell Haven site. The 1,500 acre tion and processing of grain. Tilbury UK, almost doubling the total quay former refinery has the potential to Docks is regarded as one of the five length to 3000 metres, enabling up become one of P&O’s largest port major container ports in the UK. to four deep-sea container vessels operations worldwide. It will include Planned developments at Bath- to be handled simultaneously. The a 2.3 km long quay providing berths side Bay in Harwich and Shell Ha- expansion will include storage for for up to 10 vessels with a capacity ven on the Thames Gateway are 52,000 TEUs18 and a rail terminal for 3.5 million TEUs a year passing set to establish Essex as a major capacity of 462,000 TEUs per an- through its terminal. Felixstowe cur- deep-sea container terminal for the num. An area of forty five acres adja- rently handles 2m TEUs per annum world. A £300m deep sea container cent to the port will be developed for It is estimated that the combined terminal at Bathside Bay will make commercial use associated with the additional traffic movements arising port development. The new expan- from these two developments will 19 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, the industry sion will enable the port to handle generate an additional 70-80,000 19 measure of capacity 1.7m TEUs per annum . vehicle movements a week. 20 Harwich International Container Terminal Work is already underway by Report. Dubai World to build a major

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig 26 and volume of freight transported by rail are expected in light of pressures 46 Spatial Strategy Issues Affecting Essex such as the development of Stan- Source: East of England Regional Assembly sted airport.

London 2012 Olympics

Essex is a significant partner in the hosting of the London 2012 Olympic Games. The county will host an Ol- ympic event with the mountain biking taking place at Hadleigh Castle. The white water rafting venue is the River Lea on the Hertfordshire/Es- sex border at Broxbourne, and the county will provide a proportion of the infrastructure for this event.

Essex borders London and is the closest county to the Olympic Park at Stratford. This makes Es- sex an ideal base for the provision of accommodation for construction workers and the holding of build-

Strategic Assessment of Risk ing materials prior to the games. In addition, during the long build up to The above diagram shows the impact and pressure on Essex of the Regional the games and during games time, Spatial Strategy and growth surrounding the county. Essex will share in the hosting of teams and visitors and be used as Rail operating the Channel Tunnel Rail a transport gateway via air, road, rail Link which will see high speed trains and sea. Essex is served by three major rail passing under and over parts of Pur- routes radiating out of London and fleet and Thurrock. The programme of events for providing daily transport to our large Cross Rail, is a £16bn rail scheme 2012 is summarised below. commuter belt: which will link Maidenhead, to the west of London, with Shenfield in 13/07/12 - Olympic Village Opens • West Anglia Main Line and Essex, passing directly through the Branches City of London. Construction is due 14/07/12 - Hadleigh Castle mountain to begin in 2010 with trains running bike venue opens • Great Eastern Main Line and from 2015. It is expected to be com- Branches pleted in 2017 and is set to carry 27/07/12 - Games’ opening ceremony 200m passengers a year. The plans • London, Tilbury and Southend- are for twenty trains an hour during 30/07/12 - 02/08/12 White water on-Sea Line peak periods, traveling at 100mph, rafting event, River Lea, Broxbourne, to carry the expected 160,000 pas- Hertfordshire • Essex also has close links to sengers at peak periods. the Trans European railway net- Although travel by car remains 11/08/12 - 12/08/12 Mountain biking work: the predominant means of personal event Hadleigh Castle Essex transport, a third of all Essex work- • London Liverpool Street to ers commute out of the county and 12/08/12 - Games closing ceremony Cambridge over 52,000 people a day commute into London and South Essex dis- 29/08/12 - Paralympics opening • London Liverpool Street to tricts. The affects of increased hous- ceremony Norwich ing and economic development will also impact on the rail network. 09/09/12 - Paralympics closing • London Fenchurch Street to Demand for rail travel is likely to ceremony Shoeburyness increase at a pace faster than can be coped with by existing rail links. 14/09/12 - Olympic Village closes • Stansted Airport to Harwich There is recognition that there is little scope for increasing capacity on Predicted Statistics for the London The expansion of the rail network, existing key routes and only limited 2012 Olympics after the development of the chan- scope for increasing the number of nel tunnel, has resulted in London carriages to existing services. In- • 22,000 construction workers & Continental Railways building and creases in both passenger numbers are expected to work on the

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Olympic site and seek accommodation within an hour commute 47 from place of work.

• Chigwell is the site of a major logistics centre servicing the Olym- pic Park, with 150 goods vehicle movements per hour.

• M11 and surrounding road infrastructure will experience an increase in usage as Stansted Airport is the favoured choice for transient freight.

• Essex will host a large number of park & ride and/or park & rail sites during the 2012 games.

• In response to individual bids placed, Essex will receive Olympic teams in various training camps and venues throughout the County. What will be the impact of these Risk Analysis developments on Essex? • Throughout the Cultural Olympiad Nationally, in 2004, there were 6.1 there will be official cultural events Expansion of the transport infra- accidents for every thousand ve- involving large gatherings of the structure is inevitable in one form or hicles, of which 19% were serious public, closer to the time of the another and is probably the greatest or fatal21. The expected rise in car

2012 Games. It is anticipated there challenge facing the county. numbers and usage is likely to push Infrastructure County Development & Transport will also be similar unofficial cultural On a county wide scale, traffic this figurer higher. The impact on the events. levels are growing by approximately Fire Service will be an increase in 2% each year which means that by operational response to road traffic • Nine million tickets are expected to the end of 2010 traffic volume could collisions (RTCs) and the need to ex- be sold for the 2012 Games, with have increased by 8% and by as pand RTCs reduction initiatives. The an approximate 140,000 voluntary much as 25% by 2021 (see figure rise in traffic volume will also lead to and paid work force. 26). Increases in traffic volume will an increase in traffic congestion; this increase congestion on the roads, may result in delays to appliances at- • As a result, a high demand will be increasing journey times which will tending incidents around Essex. The placed on available accommoda- impact on the economy, environ- expansion of airports and container tion. Ticket holders and visitors ment and road safety. At current ports in the county will lead to a rise may be looking to stay in the neigh- levels 29% of the county’s strate- in the number of incidents involv- bouring areas of Herts, Bucks, Es- gic highway network is operating ing HGVs. The varied nature of the sex, Kent, Surrey and Middlesex as beyond its practical capacity and loads carried will require a greater well as London. without significant change this will degree of technical knowledge and increase. expertise on the part of those of- • In response, it is anticipated there An increase in total vehicle move- ficers and crews attending if the will be a large number of official and ments, combined with increases in consequences of incidents involv- unofficial types of accommoda- the number of heavy goods vehicles ing hazardous materials are to be tion, including campsites, caravan and the impact of climate change, minimised. The location of Fire and parks, temporary hostels and con- may cause the road network to de- Rescue Service resources will also verted living spaces teriorate at a faster rate than it can have to be analysed to ensure use be repaired. of effective transport routes is op- The Service is working in partner- The overall increase in road, air, timised, as will the means of trans- ship with a number of groups, both rail and sea transport movements porting personnel and equipment to UK fire service and multi-agency, in will increase the risk of transport the incident by the quickest available order to ensure that plans are devel- accidents, the nature of which may modes. oped and tested for any event that be local or county-wide in their im- The expansion of the Ports, Rail- may be connected to such an inter- pact. Isolation of a major transport ways and Airport facilities within the nationally high profile event as the route or service will have a signifi- county will increase the work load for Olympic Games. cant impact and knock-on effect on the WFS department through statu- congestion. An increase in freight tory consultations and audits, which movements will bring an increase in may require additional resourcing. 21 Road accidents rate per thousand vehicles, and accidents by severity, 2004. Department for dangerous goods being transported Transport around and through the county.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 48 Transport

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities (Transport) Consequences Consequences

Essex has major trans- • Increase in the • Greater demand on opera- • Unrepresentative workforce. Opportunities for port infrastructure, cov- number of heavy tional resources. the development ering land, air and sea. goods vehicles on • Increase in the number of of new and • Delay in attendance times due There are extensive stra- roadways. un-wanted AFA’s. innovative meth- to congestion. tegic road routes cross- ods of transporting ing the County, including • Increase in • Increase in the number of • Increase in the number of personnel and taking traffic from major the number of Hazardous material incidents. fire deaths and injuries. equipment to container ports in Essex dangerous goods incidents. (small • Increase in the number of rapid response and Suffolk. There are carried by road/ • Greater demand for Com- Blue Light movements. facility) two significant rail routes rail. munity Safety services connecting with London • Greater demand on Fire (HFSV’s). Termini. • Increase in Safety Officers time. the range and • Rise in serious or fatal inci- • Increase in primary fires. The further develop- diversity of vehicle dents. ment of the transport design and fuel • Greater demand for special- infrastructure in Essex systems. • Increase in the number of ist skills (translators, will mean a significant calls to Control. community workers). increase in the number • Increased life • Greater demand for specialist of vehicles on the roads, risk at transport skills and equipment. leading to an increase facilities. in RTC’s, congestion, Strategic Assessment of Risk • Greater demand on Work- number of accidental • Increased popula- place Fire Safety resources. and deliberate vehicle tion movements • Inadequate levels of resource fires, all leading to an in- at transport facili- to respond to all require- creased life and fire risk. ties. ments. There are maritime and • Large increase • Increase in attendance times. aviation risks associ- in industrial • Firefighters conditioned to the ated with passenger and complexes at retained duty system may not commercial traffic from transport heads. Stansted and Southend be able to provide fire cover Airports, and Harwich required. • Increase in vol- and Tilbury sea ports. ume and density • Lack of specialist and general on road/rail/air/ skills available to deal with NB The 2012 Games sea transport incident type. will place significantly infrastructures. greater demands on the • Lack of specialist equipment entire transportation available to deal safely with • Increase in infrastructure. Whilst incident type. ‘unfamiliar’ users likelihood is not currently of transport infra- • Fire Safety Officers being assessed as increasing, structure. diverted from controlling exist- the consequences of ing risks. an incident will be of far greater significance. • Consideration to alternative arrangements to those under Of note is the likelihood MoUs. of Tilbury Docks being • The provision of an ECFRS used as a venue for upto stand alone response. six passenger liners as floating hotels. • Operational officers time used for incidents where currently other work undertaken.

• FDS officers (as above).

• Potential for larger numbers of ‘multiple’ accidents and ‘protracted’ incidents.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 49 The Changing Face of Technology The Changing Face of Technology The Changing Face

Background innovation. It is not easy to predict the doing things, justified by the need to pace of change over the next decade be local, will disappear. The Govern- Information technology is changing but the history of ingenuity suggests ment is encouraging innovation and our lives: the way we work, the way that, over the next ten years, technol- co-operation between central and we communicate with each other, ogy will play a fundamental role in the local service providers and wants the way we do business and how we modernisation of government and to drive up technology standards spend our time. Twenty years ago the delivery of public services. across the public sector, and though many of the things on which many of There has been a huge change in the Internet is of course a vital part of us now rely - mobile phones, cash- the way companies across the world this, it is not just about web-sites and point debit cards, personal comput- do business and with that, a rising providing on-line information. ers and E-mail, were all virtually un- expectation that services will meet We need to consider how informa- known. The recent growth in Internet individuals’ needs. For local govern- tion and communications technolo- use by businesses and home users ment there are both threats and op- gies will affect every aspect of gov- has been phenomenal. Although we portunities. It is argued that distance erning local communities in the future may interpret the future in terms of has no meaning in an e-commerce - from transport to education, from the present, we also rapidly absorb world and some traditional ways of trading standards to social services. We must not forget about practical applications like using CCTV to cut crime for safer communities - or improving high-rise housing. Tech- nology will also be important for democratic renewal, changing the way people vote, the way councillors work and the way that councils con- duct business

What will influence change?

The computer game joy-stick generation grows up; Increasing propen- sity to use technology combined with user-friendly interfaces through multi- functional technology; smart cards and swipe cards holding individual in- Apple’s iPad formation securely; less dependence on key-board skills; development of

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 voice command and touchscreens. Three technologies, which are in- Predicting the potential develop- 50 These are all happening now and will creasingly converging, seem likely ments of the next 25 years or so increase in the future. to offer both major opportunities is generally easier than predicting There will be dynamic growth in and concerns in the 21st century. their affect on society because the the number of households connect- We are familiar with Information and former are usually already in the ed to the Internet, interactive digital Communications Technology in the laboratories, while the latter has yet television and continuing increases form of computers, the Internet, to emerge. Information and com- in computing power together with mobile phones etc. Debates about munications technologies have al- smarter knowledge management the second, Bio-technology, and ready had a considerable affect on enabling service providers to har- particularly genetic engineering, are our lives. There are now more jobs ness data more effectively. growing. Less well known is the third in computing in the UK than there We will have 24 hour, seven day a area, Nanotechnology - or molecular ever were in coal mining even at the week access to on-line services al- engineering. height of that industry. We have be- lowing for improved access to per- Three technologies, which are income used to seeing events on the sonalised information for individuals creasingly converging, seem likely other side of the world as they hap- through call centres and public ac- to offer both major opportunities pen, phoning, faxing and emailing cess points, and transmission of vis- and concerns in the 21st century. around the world and targeting mis- ual information as well as voice and We are familiar with Information and siles with pin-point accuracy. text, cutting across distance. Using Communications Technology in the Looking ahead some see major af- interactive forms and processes, for form of computers, the Internet, fects of ICT on the way we live e.g. example paying council tax, renew- mobile phones etc. Debates about the emergence of virtual societies ing library books, tracing a planning the second, Bio-technology, and that replace much of our traditional application, booking and paying for particularly genetic engineering, are physical lifestyles and of electronic a session in a leisure centre are just growing. Less well known is the third intelligence and robots that could

Strategic Assessment of Risk a few of the services that are and area, Nanotechnology - or molecular take over some elements. As hu- may be available to local communi- engineering. mans become increasingly redun- ties. Technology does have impacts on dant, many social interactions that E-commerce and global virtual society but it is not an external force. involve face to face meetings, or companies will create new rela- Technology is developed by society, physical movement, could be re- tionships between purchasers and or certain sections of it, for particular placed by electronic communica- suppliers and a new environment purposes. It does not just happen. tion, many forms of work could be for local authorities as regulators For economic or political reasons done without ‘going to the office’ of the electronic market place (as some technologies are deliberately and shopping could be done ‘virtu- well as providers and facilitators of not developed and technologies de- ally’. All forms of entertainment de- information) and advice services to veloped for one purpose are often livered to the home, and education consumers and businesses. Work used for completely different ones. It freed from the need to attend school patterns will change with increasing is unlikely, for example, that the mili- or university. This could have major focus on balancing home and work tary originators of the Internet antici- impacts on how and where we live - more ‘hot-desking’, home and pated its use by pornographers or and on travel patterns. tele-working. terrorists. The scope for further change is

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Technology 51

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities Consequences Consequences

Advances in technology • Development of • Workplace Fire Safety • Additional training • Opportunities for will deliver new solutions new technology. department unable to needed. technological improve- for the FRS. Techno- operate efficiently. ments to passive and logical improvements and • Technology failure. • Increased costs. proactive fire protec- changes will also present • Regional Projects –RCC tion systems and the FRS with new or changing • New technology and FireLink fail/succeed. • Lack of funding avail- reduction of road traffic risks. brought into the able. collision casualties due workplace. • Control – Interim arrange- to improved vehicular design and collision The changes are likely to ments. • Present technology avoidance systems. impact on every part of the • Present working becomes obsolete. management, delivery and practices do not • Change in Service needs • Improvement in Sup- working of the FRS. allow efficient use for Service Delivery. • Staff not properly port Services (back of technology. trained. It is impossible to predict office functions). with any certainty the • Technology change or impact of • Technology not used advances change • Improvement in Service change. to fullest potential. risk to be man- Delivery (equipment, training etc) aged. • Failure to communicate effectively with the public through new mediums. The Changing Face of Technology The Changing Face • Poor use of funding.

• Unable to respond in statutory time frame.

• Reduced amount of fire safety audits carried out. enormous but influences in our so- manufacture of polymers based on of our own technical knowledge and cial systems may well delay, if not molecular structure and the design specialist equipment and the ability prevent, some of the more extreme of the computer chip layouts based of our workforce to remain compe- possibilities being realised. ICT will on surface science. The potential of tent and proficient in the use of the probably continue to add to the nanotechnology is immense. It may hardware and software installed. possibilities of communication rath- for example, make it possible to pro- The second significant risk to our or- er than completely replacing existing duce high quality products made at ganisation is that the Service spends ways of doing things. Some activi- low cost, with little environmental considerable sums of money buying, ties will be done ‘virtually’ but they impact. If the promise of Nanote- installing, training for and maintain- will be combined with existing and chnology is even partially fulfilled ing, new highly technical equipment new, physical ways of doing things. the implications for individuals and and software but will fail to utilise Bio-technology can often conjure up many industries, social structures this new technology to its fullest po- images of Frankenstein and other and economies will be considerable. tential because our traditional and monsters and appear to threaten But it is one thing for technology to long-standing work practices may human existence, but we seem to make things possible and another constrict and hold back the way in have accepted transplant surgery for them to be realised. An important which we develop and move for- and in-vitro fertilisation. Farmers and driver in this respect will be public re- ward with the technology available. gardeners have been cross-breed- action and the political response as The Service will complete more ing animals and cross pollinating we enter a world in which potentially, workplace fire safety consultations plants for centuries. It seems inevita- we could begin to control evolution. using IT solutions. This will require ble that bio-technology will become investment and continuous training. an increasingly important focus of Risk Analysis The Service must also examine ethical and political debate. the way in which it communicates Nanotechnology (molecular en- The risk to the Service from the its community safety message and gineering) may emerge as a multi- rapidly changing world of technolo- recognise future changes to how trillion dollar industry that will domi- gy is two-fold. First, that the Service people access our services and nate the economic and ecological fails to keep pace with the changes the range and diversity of mediums fabric of our lives. Examples of na- which, almost on a daily basis, oc- they may use and where they will be notechnology in modern use are the cur in the world around us in terms when they access our services.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 52

Terrorism Strategic Assessment of Risk

Terrorism is not a new phenom- networks and individuals who are • critical - an attack is expected enon. The UK has experienced re- judged to pose a terrorist threat imminently peated domestic terrorist attacks as share an ambition to cause large a result of the long-running troubles numbers of casualties without warn- • severe - an attack is highly likely in Northern Ireland. The present ing. Some have aspirations to use threat is more international, and the non-conventional weapons such • substantial - an attack is a strong world changed following the World as chemical, biological, radiological possibility Trade Centre attacks on September and nuclear substances (CBRN). 11th 2001. Following this attack, Others aspire to attack our national • moderate - an attack is possible and subsequent attacks on UK soil, infrastructure using both traditional but not likely the Government developed a Na- methods and more novel methods tional Security Strategy. such as cyber attack. • low - an attack is unlikely The Government 2009 National The Government uses a system Security Strategy identifies that UK of threat levels to identify the current The current threat level is assessed still faces a serious and sustained level of threat the UK faces at any by the Government as SEVERE threat from terrorism. Many of those given time. There are five levels: (as of 1/5/10). This means there is

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 a high likelihood of future terrorist • Prepare: where an attack cannot remain an attractive target for a attacks and indicates a continuing be stopped, mitigating its impact terrorist attack. 53 high level of threat to the UK. The Government continues to maintain The National Risk Register is fo- Background a state of heightened readiness in cused on preparing for emergencies response to the threat from interna- and mitigating the impact of terrorists Although the UK has faced a vari- tional terrorism. attacks (the Prepare work stream of ety of terrorist threats in the past, Al CONTEST), but has links with all of Qaida and related terrorist groups Threat level History the of the CONTEST work streams. have shown a level of ambition and Essex does not have a county willingness to carry out indiscrimi- • 22 January 2010 counter-terrorism strategy as it does nate terrorist attacks. They do not not have the intelligence information give warnings, they have shown a Threat level raised to SEVERE required and so relies on the national readiness to use suicide tactics and strategy. Under CONTEST, compre- the majority of their attacks have, as • 20 July 2009 hensive plans have been developed a primary intent, the deaths of large to protect sites critical to our national numbers of people. While there have Threat level lowered to infrastructure; crowded places such been attacks against well protected SUBSTANTIAL as sports venues, shopping centres, targets around the world, the trend is and the UK borders. ECFRS person- for terrorists to attack crowded public • 4 July 2007 nel have been trained and equipped places, which represent targets with Terrorism to deal with a terrorist incident, in- little or no protective security. Beach Threat level lowered to SEVERE cluding those involving chemical, bars in Bali, hotels and restaurants in biological and radiological weapons. Egypt, rush hour trains in Madrid and • 30 June 2007 This ensures the response to an at- armed assaults in Mumbai have of- tack is as effective, co-ordinated fered terrorists the prospect of high Threat level raised to CRITICAL and speedy as possible, so that the impact attacks with large numbers of (London, Glasgow attack) primary aim of saving life can be casualties. achieved, as well as effectively man- • 14 August 2006 aging the impact of such an attack Planning by Government and to ensure a quicker return to normal- Emergency Responders Threat level lowered to SEVERE ity. The National Risk Register (NRR) Longstanding and regularly ac- • 10 August 2006 is a cross-government document tivated major incident plans and which incorporates expertise from a structures are in place across Gov- Threat level raised to CRITICAL wide rage of departments and agen- ernment. The adaptability and ex- (UK-US Airline Plot) cies. It provides the basis for the Es- pertise of the emergency responders sex Resilience Forum Community provides an extremely solid basis for • 1 August 2006 Risk Register, which considers the handling a mass casualty incident. likelihood and impact of terrorist in- For example, ambulance trusts and Threat level published for the cidents, and thus contributes to the other NHS organisations have an first time. responses required. excellent track record in dealing with The NRR includes the threat of ter- major incidents and regularly exercise Threat level: SEVERE rorist attacks, and the current (2010) their major incident plans. The Urban risk register identifies five risk areas: Search and Rescue (USAR) capabil- It remains the Government’s policy ity for the Fire and Rescue Service, to issue warnings or advice to pro- • Attacks on crowded places provided through the New Dimen- tect public safety in the event of a sions programme, has now been fully specific and credible terrorist threat. • Attacks on infrastructure established within Essex. The Government provides a coun- Considerable work is underway, led ter terrorism strategy, CONTEST. • Attacks on Transport Systems by the Home Office, in conjunction This is an integrated approach with the National Counter Terrorism based on four main work streams, • Non Conventional attacks and Security Office (NaCTSO) and lo- each with a clear objective to reduce (CBRN) cal police Counter Terrorism Security the risk to the UK from international Advisers (CTSAs), and with the close terrorism. They are: • Cyber security (infrastructure engagement of local partners, to put and data confidentiality) in place a consistent framework for • Pursue: stopping terrorist attacks reducing the vulnerability of crowded Attacks on Crowded Places places across the UK. This has in- • Prevent: stopping people becom- cluded putting in place a standard ing terrorists or supporting violent Risk way for CTSAs to assess vulnerability extremism to terrorist attack of crowded places Whilst there have been attacks which will enable local partnerships • Protect: strengthening our pro- against well protected targets to prioritise their work and evaluate tection against terrorist attack around the world, crowded places its protective impact.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 national infrastructure. Attempts 54 were made to attack electricity sub- stations in the 1990s. Bishopsgate, in the City of London, was attacked in 1993 and South Quay in Lon- don’s Docklands in 1996. These attacks resulted in widespread damage and disruption but relatively few casualties. Elsewhere in the world, terrorists have carried out attacks against energy infrastructure (in Al- geria and Yemen in 2007 and 2008) and against financial institutions and government buildings (such as the attacks on the World Trade Centre in 1993 and 2001).

Planning by Government and Emergency Responders

As with attacks on crowded The framework entitled ‘Work- and networks, necessary for the places, longstanding and regularly ing Together to Protect Crowded functioning of the country and the activated major incident plans and Places’, guidance entitled ‘Crowded delivery of the essential services structures are in place across gov-

Strategic Assessment of Risk Places: The Planning System and upon which daily life in the UK de- ernment. Planning for the impacts of Counter Terrorism’, a supplement to pends. These fundamental services, attacks on infrastructure is, in many ‘Safer Places – the Planning System such as electricity and water supply, cases, the same as for accidents or and Crime Prevention’ and ‘Protect- underpin daily life and ensure the technical failure. There are a range ing Crowded Places Design and country continues to function so- of these plans which, in addition Technical Issues’ were published cially and economically. to businesses’ continuity plans for in March 2010. These documents Many of the impacts which could losses of essential services, should seek to encourage greater partner- result from industrial accidents, help anticipate and minimise the ef- ship working, provide advice on technical failure or severe weather, fects of any disruptions. counter-terrorism measures to con- could also result from a terrorist at- A comprehensive and well estab- sider in the planning process, and tack on infrastructure. The risk and lished programme of work to protect provide a practical guide on how to impact varies according to the im- the national infrastructure from ter- design counter terrorism measures portance of the specific infrastruc- rorism and other national security in new developments. ture asset attacked. threats is also in place, along with robust mechanisms to ensure an Attacks on Infrastructure Risk Background effective response by the range of government departments involved. The national infrastructure com- Terrorists in the UK have previ- The Centre for the Protection of prises those facilities, systems, sites ously attacked, or planned to attack, National Infrastructure (CPNI) is the government authority that provides protective security advice to businesses and organisations across the national infrastructure. CPNI provides integrated advice on physical, electronic and personnel security, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of the national infrastructure to terrorism and other national security threats

Attacks on Transport Systems

Risk

Of the different malicious attacks outlined in this document, conventional attacks on transport systems are judged to be some of the more likely to occur, although the likelihood of them affecting any one indi-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 served to improve maritime security in the UK and this is likely to have 55 a deterrent effect, although maritime attacks like those seen overseas (for example, USS Cole attack in 2000), cannot be ruled out in the UK in the future.

Planning by Government and Emergency Responders

Individual transport sectors are, mostly, subject to regulation of their provision of services. All transport sector operators have plans that cover a range of possible scenarios, including those most likely to create a wider impact. Those plans include the diversion of resources where possible (based on safety and op- Terrorism erational requirements) to ensure vidual is still extremely low. This as- attack the World Trade Centre and some form of public transportation sessment is supported by the many the Pentagon in September 2001, is available. examples of this type of attack per- and the attempted attack using ex- petrated by different groups across plosives concealed in shoes on a Rail and Underground the globe. As the recent incidents transatlantic flight in 2001. Despite outlined below indicate, attacks on this ongoing threat, the number These remain popular targets for transport systems can take different of attacks has remained relatively malicious groups, due to the high forms with different levels of impact. small, due in part to the work of the number of people that travel on police, security and transport safety these systems each day and the Background authorities and to the development ease of access to the general public. of appropriate security measures Security for the national rail network, Rail and Underground at airports. Operation OVERT, the as well as London Underground, the 2006 liquid bomb plot, which tar- Docklands Light Railway and the Stringent security measures are geted multiple transatlantic airlin- Glasgow Subway, is regulated and applied at airports. Rail, other than ers, demonstrated both the profile monitored by the Department for the Channel Tunnel, and under- of commercial aviation as a terrorist Transport. As open networks, these ground networks, however, are target, and the capacity of some ter- systems will always be more vulner- open systems, which is likely to rorists to devise innovative methods able to attack than closed systems, make them attractive potential tar- to circumvent security. such as aviation. Both Network Rail gets for terrorist attacks. As a result, A more recent example of this and London Underground have ro- there have been several successful was on 25 December 2009, when bust plans in place to respond to attacks on rail networks worldwide. an attempt was made to detonate emergencies, and these are regu- On 7 July 2005, the London trans- a device by a Nigerian citizen on larly tested and updated. The British port system was attacked with four a Northwestern Airlines flight from Transport Police are responsible for explosions (three on underground Amsterdam to Detroit. In this inci- policing British rail networks and are trains, one on a bus). This was fol- dent, the device used had clearly closely involved in contingency plan- lowed by unsuccessful attacks been constructed with the aim of ning, as well as working with indus- against the London transport sys- making detection by existing screen- try and the Department for Transport tem two weeks later. There have also ing methods extremely difficult. on security issues. been a number of recent examples While there are a number of secu- Eurostar services through the in other countries of successful at- rity screening methods in place, no Channel Tunnel, are subject to a tacks against underground systems technology can be 100% effective, more stringent security regime, simi- (e.g. Moscow, 2004) and mainline but it is clear that body scanners can lar to that which exists at airports, rail services (e.g. Madrid, 2004). help to detect devices such as the under which all passengers and one used in this incident. their baggage are currently subject Air to screening. Maritime Over the past 20 years there have Air been a number of attacks by ter- To date, no attack against maritime rorists against the aviation industry. interests in the UK has been mount- Stringent protective security These include the 1988 Lockerbie ed by Islamist extremists. The intro- measures exist at UK and EU Mem- attack involving a Pan Am flight, the duction of the International Shipping ber State airports. Airlines and air- deliberate use of hijacked planes to and Ports Facility Security Code has ports are required to carry out a

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 range of specified measures. These Non Conventional Attacks on humans. 56 include the following measures to The terrorist group, Aum Shinri- mitigate the risk of attack: Risk and Background kyo, responsible for the chemical nerve gas attack on the Tokyo sub- • screening of passengers and their To date there have been relatively way in 1995, is also believed to have bags, as well as of all staff work- few examples of non-conventional released anthrax throughout the city. ing in restricted areas; attacks perpetrated using chemical, The accidental release of anthrax biological, radiological or nuclear spores from a military research labo- • physical security measures, in- (CBRN) materials. However, we still ratory in the former Soviet Union in cluding the separation of incom- need to plan for them. The potential 1979 is believed to have killed over ing international passengers from scale and nature of any impact will 60 people. Anthrax attacks in the all outbound travellers be dependent on the type of sub- US in 2001 killed 5, infected 17 and stance used, as the following exam- the clean up operation is believed to • background checks on staff in ples demonstrate. The most prob- have cost the US Government over sensitive posts. able types of terrorist attack would $1 billion. use devices containing explosives of Radiological material could also Security measures are also in some sort. be combined with explosives to pro- place to protect aircraft in flight, such Chemicals can be combined with duce a radiological dispersal device as the compulsory locking of cockpit explosives to increase their impact (RDD). The impact will be greater doors. These security regimes are and may be used as small-scale (as- than from the use of explosive mate- regularly inspected by the Depart- sassination or poisonings) or large- rial alone, because of the contami- ment for Transport’s Transport Se- scale (mass-casualty) weapons. nation of people and buildings that curity and Contingencies Directorate Chlorine gas, an industrial chemical, occurs from the spread of the radio- (TRANSEC) to ensure compliance. was used during the First World War active material.

Strategic Assessment of Risk In addition, TRANSEC provides ad- to kill or debilitate troops. In the Sec- Nuclear or fissile material may be vice to UK airlines operating over- ond World War, sophisticated chem- used to develop a nuclear weapon seas, on measures needed at their icals (such as nerve agents) were – the most devastating of all CBRN foreign stations. developed to be used as munitions devices. for the battlefield. Their subsequent Contamination makes recovery Maritime use during the Iran-Iraq war had a from a CBRN attack significantly devastating impact. more challenging than recovery from Stringent protective security meas- Biological weapons may be used other terrorist atrocities. The clean- ures exist (including tightly controlled for similar purposes. Naturally oc- up process may be protracted as access) for cruise ships and ferries curring bacteria can be cultured for well as unfamiliar and untested. serving the UK. New rules for do- use in an attack. This could take the mestic ferries came into effect on form of food or water poisoning or Planning by Government and 1 July 2007 as domestic seagoing the spread of infectious diseases. Emergency Responders ferries now fall within the scope of Anthrax was developed and tested the EU regulation for enhancing ship in the First World War as a means to The UK Government’s overall pri- and port facility security. contaminate animal feed but it can ority, as detailed in the UK’s Chemi- also be developed for use in attacks cal, Biological, Radiological and

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 connected with each other and with the citizen using internet technolo- 57 gies. This provides huge benefit in terms of convenience, efficiency and cost saving, but also requires that departments effectively manage the associated risks. CESG, the Information Assurance arm of Gov- ernment Communications Head- quarters (GCHQ), uses its expertise in this fast moving arena of internet security to provide help and support to government in dealing with these risks. The Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI) provides advice on protective security measures and direct technical support to organisations within the national infrastructure. Terrorism Business continuity plans obviate Nuclear (CBRN) Strategy for Coun- Services have means to decontami- the effects of any disruptions as far tering International Terrorism, is to nate people affected by such an inci- as possible. protect lives by preventing a CBRN dent and local authorities have plans attack from occurring. Should an in place to open reception centres In the wake of the update to the attack take place, we need to mini- for those caught up in the incident National Security Strategy (‘Security mise the risk of loss of life or injury or displaced from their homes. for the Next Generation’) the UK’s and return to normal as quickly as Cyber Security Strategy was pub- possible. Significant work has been, Cyber Security lished in June 2009. The key ten- and continues to be, undertaken to ets of the Strategy are: reduce risk address both the likelihood, and im- Risk from the UK’s use of cyber space; pact, of the terrorist use of CBRN. In exploit opportunities in cyber space; particular, a great deal of work has The risk and impact of cyber at- and improve cyber knowledge, ca- taken place on responding promptly tacks on IT and communication sys- pabilities and decision-making. One and effectively to an attack, and re- tems varies greatly according to the of the key recommendations was covering as quickly as possible from particular sectors affected and the the setting up of the Office of Cyber its impact. source of the threat. Cyber attacks Security (OCS) and the Cyber Secu- Effective, co-ordinated and speedy have the potential to export, modify rity Operations Centre (CSOC). The response to an attack can save or delete information or cause sys- OCS and CSOC now serve to pro- lives, and it is vital to manage the tems to fail. vide strategic leadership in the cy- immediate impact of a CBRN attack There is a known risk to commer- ber domain, monitor developments effectively. Over the past five years, cially valuable and confidential in- in cyber space, analyse trends and the UK has concentrated much of its formation in some government and improve collective response to cyber resources and funding into improv- private sector systems from a range incidents. ing the level of preparedness, so that of well resourced and sophisticated the emergency responders can re- attacks. Cyber attack may be used act quickly and safely in what could more widely by different groups, or be life-threatening situations. individuals, with various motives. The response to any incident involving CBRN or hazardous materi- Background als – whether accidental or deliberate – requires a well co-ordinated IT systems in government depart- multi agency response and accord- ments and various organisations ingly, there is planning for such inci- have been and continue to be at- dents at national, regional and local tacked to obtain the sensitive in- level and regular testing of the plans formation they hold. Some of these through exercises. The emergency attacks are well planned and well responders receive specialist train- executed; others represent relatively ing and are provided with protective unskilled hackers. equipment and the relevant supplies in order to enable them to operate in Planning by Government and hazardous environments and to res- Emergency Responders cue and treat any casualties. Both the Ambulance and Fire and Rescue IT systems are increasingly inter-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 58 Terrorism

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities (Terrorism) Consequences Consequences

The security of Person- • Political unrest • Large numbers of public • Long term resource • Opportunities to devel- nel, Premises, Appliance, leading to action involved in incidents. management of the op search and rescue Equipment and PPE is put from militant or- • High loss of life. New Dimension’s response capability to at risk due to a high terror- ganisations and/or programme. any incident. • Service New Dimensions ist threat level. There is also fundamentalists. resources not adequately the threat of fire service • Control of confidential • Develop interdepart- resourced. resources being used by • Terrorist change in shared information mental liaison. terrorist organisations. tactics to include • Ability to maintain suitable between responders. attack on ECFRS fire cover. A terrorist attack could infrastructure. • Arson attacks on • Theft of confidential include multiple incidents Mosques and Muslim information on local and secondary hazards i.e. • Terrorist change in community. risks. a dirty bomb. tactics to include • Confusions over appropri- Essex (infrastruc- ate application of current • Theft of fire service The NRR includes the ture and/or high standards. vehicles, equipment threat of terrorist attacks risk targets). • Greater demand on and uniforms. and the current (2009) risk resources. register identifies five risk • Lack of available • Detrimental affect in fire areas: funding. cover, during and post CBRNe incident. Strategic Assessment of Risk • Attacks on crowded • Increase in Service places • Resources deployed for delivery costs. longer periods. • Attacks on infrastructure • Greater demand for spe- • Personnel security cialist skills. checks. • Attacks on Transport • Greater demand for spe- Systems cialist equipment. • Post traumatic stress. • Greater demand for • Non Conventional at- rapid transportation of • Reputation. tacks (CBRN) specialist personnel and equipment (DIM). • Conflicting advice • Cyber attacks (infra- • Infiltration of secure high leading to increased structure and data risk premises. risk to life. confidentiality • Breach of security zones at incidents. • Public and firefighters NB - The 2012 Games at risk from terrorist provide the potential for • Increase in primary/sec- actions. attacks These are identified ondary fires within Muslim community. in the December 2009 • Firefighters suffer Olympic Safety & Security • Insufficient resources to mental illnesses due Strategic Risk Assessment respond effectively to to post traumatic (Classified SECRET). multiple incidents. stress. • Longer response times to non CBRNe incidents. • Public and firefighters • Delay in detecting sec- at risk from terrorist ondary hazards. covert actions. • Increased exposure to secondary hazards • Breakdown in community relations/law • Contamination, and and order. delay in completing mass decontamination. • Ways of Working – Multi Agency response cohesion

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 59

The Economy The Economy

The UK economy entered a deep been impacted by these national Impact on the Service recession in late 2008 and although factors and the reduction in the fi- recent government figures suggest nancial services markets of the City Arson is the single most common that this period of recession has of London. cause of fire in business premises; ended, the outlook is for low growth Longer term prospects remain 45% of all serious fires are as a result during 2010. This lower growth is linked to a mix of both commercial of arson. Up to 80% of businesses also likely to mean that unemploy- developments at the Thames and never fully recover from a serious ment continues to increase with a Haven Gateways, Stansted and fire. New businesses face significant peak of over 3m forecast by some Southend Airports and regeneration obstacles in their opening years and commentators. and development in Chelmsford, many fail to stay afloat due to finan- Investment by business is likely to Basildon, Thurrock, Harlow, Col- cial pressures. It is vital that Essex shrink further in 2010 and the public chester and Southend. The County Fire and Rescue recognises their finances are expected to face signifi- will also be impacted by the Olym- significance to our economy and cant cuts in public expenditure from pics in 2012 with the completion of proactively moves to form closer re- 2011 onwards, as the government construction and infrastructure work lationships. tries to reduce the significant budget in 2011. Given the importance of small deficit which reached £167 billion in The overall Essex economy is esti- businesses in underpinning Essex’s 2009/2010. mated to be over £25 billion helped prosperity it is vital that Essex Fire by its position as an International and Rescue does as much as it can Economic Drivers Gateway and its proximity to Lon- to ensure they are safer from arson don. Further details can be found and accidental fires. Employment in Essex, with a in the Economic Assessment pro- Smaller businesses often require workforce of some 600,000, has duced by Essex County Council. more advice and support with re-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 60 Economy

Risk Description Triggers Operational Strategic Opportunities (Finance) Consequences Consequences

Due to an economic • Introduction of • Potential increase in FI • Additional burdens on • Opportunities to further downturn, there could be new and changes the Crime and Disor- develop are partner- • In-year financial con- an increase of primary fires to existing legisla- der Partnerships. ships with the business straints/cuts could occur particularly involving busi- tion. community to improve as a consequence of ness premises, possibly • Temporary loss of business continuity uncertainty/or a revised, including arson related • Reduction in fund- business. management and pro- or Emergency, Govern- incidents. These may also ing. tect economic growth. ment Budget be more prevalent in local • Permanent closure. areas of deprivation. • Reduction in Operational • Make efficiencies to • Increase in arson • Increase in costs to provision and Support provide a better Value (primary fires) business community. The economic challenges provision. For Money Service. facing central and local • Potential for industrial • Loss of local jobs government may lead to action by workforce caus- a reduction of available • Loss of business ing operational provision funding. revenue. reduction. • Increase in the number of prosecu- tion cases.

• Increased workload/ Strategic Assessment of Risk costs for Workplace Fire Safety department.

• Adverse impact on regeneration programmes.

• Adverse impact on CDRP work.

• Increased cost to fire service and economy.

• Negative effect on PI’s.

• Increased environmental damage.

• Change in ‘improvement’ plan for ECFRS – current improvements planned not delivered.

gard to fire safety legislation. The Rural Economic Value prices and the demand for bio-fuels service should endeavour to educate and inform communities across The British equestrian industry Socio-Economic Factors Essex on the need to comply with makes an important contribution to the legislation. the county’s economy. The Horse It is recognised that persons liv- As a Fire and Rescue Service we Trust estimates a valuation in excess ing in areas of “multiple deprivation” have a statutory duty to protect the of £4 billion in the UK, with over 1.3 are at greater risk from fire. Essex lives and ensure the safety of em- million horses and over 4 million rid- contains some 40 seriously deprived ployees through the application, and ers nationwide. small areas. when necessary the enforcement, of The Service has recognised the Community safety activities are fire safety legislation. At the same value of the industry and more im- targeted to reflect the increased time we recognise the financial pres- portantly, the risk that is present for risk, particularly amongst vulnerable sures it can sometimes place on both animal and owner when animals groups such as disabled adults, lone- business. We need to ensure our become trapped. parent families and people living in actions are effective, reasonable and The Service must also recognise shared accommodation. The Serv- within the guidelines of the law. the increase in the economic value of ice uses mapping and data analysis crops, due to the rise in world food tools to identify high risk groups.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 61

Operational Service Delivery Operational Service Delivery

Having effective emergency re- of the Act that, indirectly, could be cant impact on the communities of sponse arrangements in place is applied. As such the Authority is Essex. This will improve our ability paramount for both public and fire- committed to provide an improved to deal with the consequences of a fighter safety in the County. The response in the pursuit of saving life major emergency by improving the 2007 Operational Assessment of and property. planning process at a local level and Service Delivery (OASD), conducted As a Fire and Rescue Service our by building stronger links between using a CFOA/Communities and Lo- primary purpose is to save and pro- the responding organisations. cal Government developed assess- tect lives, property and the environ- Chapter 4, Regulations 15 and 16, ment toolkit, provides a benchmark ment through prevention against, made under the CCA, places the for all Fire and Rescue Authorities protection from, and response to, duty on all Category 1 responders from which to move forward over risk. The level of risk is based upon to undertake an assessment and the next three years. Essex has been an assessment of the current and regular review of the risks within a lo- identified as a Fire Service that is emerging risk at local, regional and cal resilience area and, as agreed by performing strongly in this area. national level and the type and dis- the Local Resilience Forum, produce One of the key learning points position of ECFRS resources to miti- a Community Risk Register, (CRR). from the OASD process was that gate these risks. The Forum is chaired by a lead of- Fire and Rescue Authorities must Risk, as a term, is not confined to ficer from a Category 1 responder have in place, effective arrange- that which is present in the commu- agency, in this case Essex Fire & ments for gathering risk information nity, but also exists as a threat to the Rescue Service. It involves emer- and making it readily available to op- ability of ECFRS to deliver its objec- gency planners and relevant offic- erational crews. This should include tives. This is defined as strategic risk ers from all Category 1 responders an effective audit and review system and is identified within the strategic including the emergency services, to ensure that the information is cur- risk planning profiles. other local agencies, and health rent and in the required format. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 professionals. It also includes repre- Essex Fire Authority has statutory (CCA) requires local responder bod- sentatives from Category 2 respond- duties and a leading role in the provi- ies to co-operate in preparing for ers who are likely to be involved in sion of services. However, in consid- and responding to, emergencies certain emergencies; e.g. utilities ering the needs of communities and through a Local Resilience Forum and transport companies. opportunities to support partners, (LRF). The Essex Resilience Forum Within Essex the risk assessment the Authority actively engages with (ERF) sits at the apex of Essex’s lo- process is conducted as a multi- many agencies. For example, even cal civil protection arrangements. agency, pan Essex approach, which though the Fire and Rescue Servic- Its overall purpose is to ensure that collectively assesses the risk of a es Act 2004 states that the Author- there is an appropriate level of pre- particular emergency occurring and ity does not have a statutory duty to paredness to enable an effective, identifies the category 1 responder attend (e.g. flood incidents, animal multi-agency, response to emer- with lead responsibility. rescues) there are, in fact, elements gencies which may have a signifi- The inclusion of any hazards or a

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 particular scenario within the (CRR in addition to internal and external facilities and arrangements for their 62 (i.e. the outcome description) does pressures, it is necessary to look at welfare at work. not mean that the Resilience Forum the effects such developments and The overriding premise in safety believes the risk will materialise, or changes will have on the ability of the management is to ensure that col- that if it were to do so, it would be Service to successfully deliver the lective control measures are put into on that scale. The risk scenarios are right person concept in response to effect, because this safeguards eve- reasonable worst-case assumptions the risk. To make an assessment it is ryone. An operational incident how- upon which the risk assessment is necessary to breakdown each part ever, can be an inherently dangerous based. and establish what is required, the environment, where implementing The ERF must ensure that appro- impact of any future developments collective controls may not be pos- priate resources are made available or changes and an analysis of any sible due to the dynamic nature of to working groups to fulfil statu- perceived gap. the hazard environment. As the in- tory and task-based responsibilities; cident develops additional factors ECRFS has a statutory responsibility ‘The Right Person…’ – Is a Safe may arise which either require the to provide a fire and rescue service Person original decision to be changed or during periods of severe disruption at least modified. Decision making to the county, such as abnormal Safe persons are individuals who may become reactive as the inci- weather conditions, terrorist inci- have the necessary skills and ex- dent develops rather than pro-active dents, Flu pandemic or other types perience and, in some cases, the in the initial stages. Fire and Res- of disaster that affect large numbers specialist knowledge and training cue Services must, therefore, ensure of people. e.g. Hazmat Officer , Fire Safety that the firefighter is safe when the Risk assessment is not a static Officer, considered necessary for workplace environment is not. This process and is subject to constant the role combined with the abil- approach is known as the ‘Safe Per- review. Therefore information con- ity to apply these qualities on the son Concept’.

Strategic Assessment of Risk tained in the CRR will, as a result, incident ground and at their place Safe places are achieved through be regularly updated. The overview of work. Safe persons are compe- design, engineering and physical risk assessment process covers the tent to perform the tasks assigned controls, whereas a safe person whole County of Essex, including the to them. They operate as an effec- relies upon human factors. How- two Unitary Authorities of Southend tive member of a team and are self- ever, to say that greater emphasis is and Thurrock. It also considers the disciplined and capable of working placed upon the safe person strat- implications of the County’s proxim- within accepted systems of work. egy in a dynamic incident does not ity to London, and the other neigh- They are adaptable to changing cir- merely place the emphasis upon the bouring authorities in Kent and the counties within the Eastern Region. The range and diversity of risk Section 2 of the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974, states facing Essex has grown consider- that: “It shall be the duty of every employer to ensure, so ably over the last twenty years. At far as is reasonably practicable, the health, safety and macro-level, global factors such as welfare at work of all his employees,” and in particular, climate change and the environ- that such a duty extends to their place of work. ment, terrorism and globalisation  of the world’s economies have all served to increase the risk in one form or another. At a national level, changes in legislation, in particular; cumstances, vigilant for the safety individuals concerned. The organi- The Fire Services Act 2004, The Civil of themselves and others and able sation has to ensure; the correct se- Contingencies Act 2004, Working to recognise their own abilities and lection of individuals; the provision of at Height Regulations and Confined limitations. adequate information; the provision Space Regulations, have all com- Section 2 of the Health and Safety of any necessary personal protec- bined to increase both the commu- at Work Act 1974, states that: “It tive equipment; the supply of nec- nity and corporate risk. shall be the duty of every employer essary equipment; the provision of The Service operational response to ensure, so far as is reasonably safe systems of work to be followed; to the known and perceived risk practicable, the health, safety and the provision of necessary instruc- within Essex is based on the con- welfare at work of all his employees,” tion and training and effective levels cept of: and in particular, that such a duty of supervision. ‘The right person, in the right extends to their place of work. This The correct selection of individu- place, at the right time, with the right includes provision and maintenance als is therefore key to the safe per- equipment.’ of a working environment for his em- son requirement and can be seen In examining the medium and long ployees that is, so far as is reason- to augment the concept of the right term development that will affect Es- ably practicable; safe, without risks person. In meeting the needs of the sex and consequently its risk profile, to health, and adequate as regards right person we will be fulfilling our

22 A category 1 responder is any body in the UK that has specific duties as determined under the 23 Operational officer who has specialist knowl- Civil Contingencies Act (2004). Category 2 Responders have lesser duties under the Act and are edge through attending specific training courses merely required to co-operate with Category 1 Responders and sharing relevant information. to respond to hazardous material incidents.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 legislative requirements, and reduc- elements of competence becomes to identify any difference in the level ing the risk to our employees en- much clearer. of technical knowledge required be- 63 gaged in operational activity, to its With the abolition of the statutory tween the two duty systems. lowest practicable level. promotion exams in July 2006, and We know the right person must their replacement with the Integrat- be able to work as an effective ed Personal Development System 2. Hours of training undertaken. member of a team. How then does (IPDS), the means for determining the Service ensure that we have the right person is deemed the same When the performance of an indi- the right team for the task? Before for those firefighters conditioned to vidual does not meet the standard teams can be deployed, managers the retained duty system as it is for identified for his or her role, whether need to know their capability or else those firefighters conditioned to the measured in terms of knowledge, risk wasting highly experienced and wholetime duty system. This has skills, attitude or understanding, it equipped teams on basic tasks or led to the concept expressed by is considered that a learning experi- deploying a team to a task that they the Government and some Chief ence will overcome this deficiency. have neither the personnel skills nor Fire Officers that ‘A firefighter isa A firefighter conditioned to the equipment with which they are able firefighter is a firefighter’: Effectively wholetime duty system, working a to cope. stating that there is no difference in 42 hour week, will receive an aver- It is to prevent this very situation the level of competence in a fire- age of eight hours training every that the concept of ‘Team Typing’ fighter conditioned to the retained week. A firefighter conditioned to has been developed. ‘Team Typing’ duty system deemed competent the retained duty system will receive sets out criteria that rescue teams through IPDS, than a firefighter con- on average two hours training a need to meet so that when an officer ditioned to the wholetime duty sys- week. Clearly there is evidence of needs to call in additional resources, tem deemed competent through the a difference in the amount of training they can be task focused and select IPDS assessment process. received when comparing the two a team with the capability, person- The suggestion that ‘a firefighter is duty systems. Operational Service Delivery nel and equipment to undertake the a firefighter is a firefighter’ accepts The question is, with two hours task and know that the responding that all firefighters may adequately training a week, can the competenc- team will be able to deliver. Team and safely respond to the same risk es for offensive operations required Typing allows rescue resources to and the expectation as an employer at all incidents in Essex, in addition be categorised by the outcome they is that they will respond to that risk in to the competencies required to are safely able to achieve, rather a broadly similar fashion. meet the increased range and di- than a generic description of who How firefighters respond to that versity of risks for which firefighters they are or the equipment they carry. risk will be based, in the main, on are now required to train, be sup- The ‘Team Typing’ approach has their level of technical knowledge, ported? If firefighters conditioned to the potential to deliver a number of the hours of training they under-go the wholetime duty system receive positive benefits: and the amount of experience they eight hours training every week, this have gained through the applica- would indicate a disparity in levels of • It would maximise efficiency and tion of knowledge learnt and skills training between firefighters on the effectiveness, and reduce costs. gained through training. two different duty systems. In determining if there is a differ- • It would enhance public safety ence between firefighters condi- 3. Experience gained thorough and confidence. tioned to the retained duty system application. and firefighters conditioned to the • It would enhance responder safe- wholetime duty system, in respond- To assess the level of experience ty through national standards and ing to an incident, it is necessary to gained through the application of a national accreditation system. compare the two duty systems in knowledge, and skills gained at op- each of the three areas: erational incidents, it is necessary • It would support a multi-agency, to look at the number of incidents multi-disciplinary and multi-juris- 1. Knowledge required to attended by crews operating within dictional approach to incidents. perform role. both duty systems. Evidence shows that in general, • It would make best use of existing Before the abolition of the statu- fire stations crewed by firefighters skills and capabilities, both with- tory promotion exams in July 2006, conditioned to the wholetime duty in the FRS and within other key determining any difference in the lev- system attend more incidents than agencies and voluntary bodies. el of knowledge required to perform fire stations crewed by firefighters a particular role between the two conditioned to the retained duty • It would deliver a mechanism for duty systems, was clearly defined system. Therefore, when compar- effective mutual aid at a local, re- by the requirement of wholetime ing the two duty systems, the evi- gional and national level. duty system firefighters to pass pro- dence would suggest that a signifi- motion exams. With the introduc- cant difference may exist in the level With a clear understanding of the tion of IPDS and the establishment of experience gained at operational operational outcomes required of a of National Occupational Stand- incidents. team, the tactical inputs and train- ards, against which all firefighters To select the right person re- ing required to maintain individual are measured, there is no evidence quired, the Service must decide if a

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 64 Fig 30 Strategic Assessment of Risk

firefighter is a firefighter is afire- require a firefighter capable of suc- munity Risk Register. Risks in this fighter, within the present firefighter cessfully acquiring and maintaining context are those that could result in development programme. It follows the necessary knowledge and skills a major emergency, such as those that if the levels of competence are to deal with the full range of diverse occurring on designated high risk considered to be the same, then the incidents the Service attends. sites (The Control of Major Accident operational expectations placed on It has been established at an em- Hazard Regulations 1999-COMAH). both duty systems ought to be the ployment appeal tribunal that fire- The Community Risk Register is the same too. If this is accepted, then fighters working either duty system first step in the emergency planning ‘The right person’ can be from either carry out a broadly similar role at process and is the method used to duty system. operational incidents . The Service identify and record the level of risk. It is a matter of fact that there must now go on to clearly establish It also ensures that developed plans exists a difference in terms of the the operational demands placed are proportionate to the risk. (see length and regularity of training pe- on all firefighters and incident com- figure 31) riods provided to acquire knowledge manders. This knowledge will allow and skills (acquisition stage) and the Service to ascertain whether all the opportunities available to apply the operational requirements de- the acquired knowledge and skills manded can be successfully met at operational incidents (application within the present acquisition and stage). application environment. The range and diversity of inci- The right place’ is the point from dents which the fire service now which adequate and sufficient re- attends has increased the overall sources can be mobilised in the complexity of the firefighter role. The shortest time, travel to the incident degree of technical knowledge re- using the fastest available method, quired of firefighters to ensure a safe along the quickest routes and arrive and competent response, has also within a time period suitable for the risen as a direct result of additional risk. operational and legislative pressures The risks to the community at this placed on the modern firefighter. The time are recorded in the CRR. The technical knowledge and skills re- CCA places a legal duty on those or- quired to safely operate within, and ganisations that are involved in emer- take command of, an emergency gency preparations and response incident, are generic and therefore at the local level (responders), to undertake risk assessments and 24 See Section ‘Future Constraints’ maintain them in a published Com-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 65 Operational Service Delivery

Fig 31

The Control of Major Accident Hazard Regulations 1999 (COMAH) Sites

l) Exchem Organics, Harwich The COMAH regulations apply to sources to allow different approach- establishments where dangerous es to finding solutions and problem m) Carless Refining, Harwich substances are present. The type solving whilst working with the site and quantity of dangerous substanc- occupiers and local communities Lower Tier COMAH Sites es determines the application of the There are currently 13 top tier regulations to the establishment. For COMAH sites in Essex. Eight of 1) Serco Gulf Engineering, those establishments that fall within these are inside the Unitary Author- Saffron Walden the scope of the regulations there are ity of Thurrock, and one spans the 2) Stansted Fuelling two tiers, upper (top) and lower tier. administrative boundary between 3) Flo Gas, Halstead Top tier establishments are re- Southend and Essex. 4) Dynamic Fireworks, quired to consult the County Council Colchester when preparing on-site emergency Top Tier COMAH Sites 5) Mistley Quay and plans. The County Council is required a) Calor Gas Ltd, Coryton Forwarding to prepare an off-site emergency plan for top tier establishments. There is b) Shell UK Ltd, Coryton 6) Langford Water Works, a requirement in the regulations that c) BP Coryton Refinery Essex & Suffolk Water all plans are reviewed, revised and d) Oikos Storage Ltd, 7) Hanningfield Water Works, tested at least every three years and Canvey Island Essex & Suffolk Water more frequently in some circum- e) Calor Gas Ltd, 8) Transco Gas Holder, stances. Canvey Island Eastwood The FRS now enforces general fire 9) Transco Gas Holder, precautions on these sites and those f) Esso Petroleum Shoeburyness that fall under this legislation. These g) NuStar Terminals Ltd premises used to be covered by the h) Vopak Terminal 10) Coryton Energy Centre HSE and often have highly special- i) Proctor & Gamble 11) Transco Gas Holder Grays ised processes. The FSOs are re- j) Industrial Chemicals 12) Transco Gas Holder, Harlow quired to identified the risks posed 13) Synthomer Ltd by these sites. This new challenge k) Qinetiq Environment Test will require additional training and re- Centre, Foulness Island 14) Robert Stuart PLC

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 66

Fig 32 All Dwelling Fires 2007/08 – 2009/10 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Dwelling Fire Fatality Injury

The Service has specified three greater in urban areas. This three- firefighters conditioned to the re- different time periods in which it is tier response standard is accepted tained duty system, but the vast necessary for personnel and equip- on the basis that risk, and therefore majority of injuries and deaths have ment to reach a particular risk. The reported injuries and loss of life, in occurred in urban areas covered by time period specified is dependant rural areas has always been sig- fire stations crewed by firefighters on the type and nature of the risk. nificantly lower than that found in conditioned to the wholetime duty These time periods are known as densely populated urban areas with system. This would appear to sup- Operational Performance Stand- significant industrial and commercial port the theory that persons in urban ards. developments. areas are at higher risk of death or Operational Performance Stand- It is necessary therefore, as part injuries resulting from fires in domes- ards are based on where our re- of the County Wide Review, to as- tic dwellings and therefore require sources are at present, that is to sess whether this difference in re- quicker response standards to mini- say the address of the fire stations ported injuries and loss of life, and mise the risk to life. The difference and not a mobile position. Present subsequently the perception of risk in the level of risk in relation to fires performance standards require the between rural and urban areas re- in domestic dwellings across the Service to attend an emergency mains the same. Of the wide range county may be seen to be justified. within 8 minutes on 80% of occa- and diversity of incidents that the sions, 10 minutes on 90% of occa- Service attends historically, evidence Road Traffic Collisions (RTCs) sions and 20 minutes on 100% of shows that the two types of incident occasions. in which the most significant report- The key attached to fig 33 indi- Historically, it has been accepted able injuries and deaths occur are cates the extent of our RTC activ- at both local and national level that fires in domestic dwellings and road ity relating to the area concerned.. A attendance times in rural areas will traffic collisions. significant number of RTC incidents be longer than those for urban and Fatal fires have occurred in areas occur along routes which pass city areas because the life risk is covered by fire stations crewed by through a number of fire stations

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 67

Fig 33 RTCs 2007/08 – 2009/10 Operational Service Delivery

crewed by firefighters conditioned to the retained duty system, particularly along the M11 and A12. The risk to life therefore, may be seen to be more evenly spread across the county in relation to RTC incidents and so the perception of a difference in the level of risk across the county is not justified. The Serv- ice has sought to reduce its response time to RTC incidents by providing all front line appliances with cutting equipment. This response relies on two factors in order to ensure equal Service response to RTCs across the county. Firstly, that the attendance time is broadly similar for rural and urban areas, and secondly, that the appliance is operationally available.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 68

Fig 34 8,10 and 20 minute Turn-out areas for all station Strategic Assessment of Risk

The map clearly shows that it is not minute response.(yellow) The white The second criterion for ensur- operationally possible to provide an areas are outside the 20 minutes re- ing equal Service response is that equal Service response, based on a sponse area of any station, but are the appliance is operationally avail- 10 minute turn-out area when op- predominantly remote rural areas able. The Service cannot respond, erating two different duty systems. with no property or road network. It even with the right person in the Significant areas of the county are should be noted that the map above right place, in the right time, with the outside the scope of attendance for is based on the best case scenario; right equipment, if the appliance is stations crewed by firefighters con- that is, that all appliances are opera- not available. Therefore, as part of ditioned to the retained duty sys- tionally available and not unavailable the county wide review, it is neces- tem when tasked with this stand- or attending other incidents. Due to sary to review the availability of ap- ard of attendance time. This is not the distance between stations and pliances. unique to Essex and is historically the size of the station ground, partic- accepted, and is counter-balanced ularly in areas covered by firefighters by delivering pro-active community conditioned to the retained duty sys- safety and workplace fire safety to tem, any reduction in the availability reduce risk levels. The blue areas of appliances will have a significant show those parts of Essex that re- effect on the time taken for the next ceive the fastest response gener- available appliance to attend, which ally. Most, but not all of the north of may not always be from the next the county, is covered within the 20 nearest station. (see figure 34)

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Fig Average hours off-the-run due to shortage of riders per 69 36 month at wholetime stations 2009/10 Operational Service Delivery

Fig Hours off-the-run due to shortage of riders per month at 37 wholetime stations 2009/10

Even during the month of August the time spent unavailable, by appliances crewed by firefighters conditioned to the wholetime duty system, was still half that of the average retained one pump station in any month.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 70 Fig Average hours off-the-run due to shortage of riders per 38 month at day crewed stations 2009/10 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Hours off-the-run due to shortage of riders per month at 39 day crewed stations 2009/10

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 71 Fig Average hours off-the-run due to shortage of riders per 40 month at retained stations 2009/10 Operational Service Delivery

Fig Hours off-the-run due to shortage of riders per month at 41 retained stations 2009/10

The averages are for one and two pump stations. On average, during the fifteen month period January 07 to March 08, three appliances, crewed by firefighters conditioned to the retained duty system, were not operationally available due to a shortage of riders every twenty-four hour period. During the summer period this rose to five.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 The evidence shows a significant initiative would adapt the equipment erationally, this will not create an is- 72 gap between the two duty systems they had, in order to complete the sue. For those crews attending few in relation to how many appliances required task. operational incidents, accumulating are unavailable and for how long. New legislation, improvements to experience in the operational use of This ultimately results in a reduction H&S and the greater availability of the item of equipment will be difficult in the level of fire cover, particularly in new items of equipment designed to gain, and will give rise to ques- the north of the county. specifically for the FRS market, have tions over their competencies. The This document has shown that made this practice virtually obsolete. Service training requirements also significant development is occur- The range of equipment carried on have significant cost implications. ring in Essex that will have an impact modern fire appliances is far greater The previous evidence has shown of the Service’s risk profile. Future than twenty years ago. Some items, that firefighters conditioned to the developments may widen the gap such as thermal image cameras, are retained duty system may lack ex- in the level of service delivery, par- a result of advances in technology. posure to operational risk and are ticularly in areas in which reported Other items, such as ‘line harness- restricted in the number of hours’ injuries and fatalities are known to es’, are a result of the introduction of training in which they can participate occur and are of concern to the new legislation. on a weekly basis. Therefore, when Service, namely fires in domestic Each time a new item of equip- assessing new items of equipment dwellings and RTCs. The predicted ment is placed on an appliance, two it is necessary to decide who is the rise in congestion levels, as shown factors affect the Service to a signifi- right person to use it and where is in Fig 19, will have an affect on the cant degree. The first is the financial the right place to provide it. ability of the Service to maintain the cost: The cost of purchasing suffi- The decision should include an present performance standards due cient numbers of the item for each of assessment of whether all opera- to slower movement through traffic the 94 Service or special appliances tional personnel should be provided of crews responding to alerters and with additional items as spare; the with the equipment and necessary

Strategic Assessment of Risk appliances proceeding to incidents. associated running costs-fuel etc, training or whether the equipment, The ability to respond in the future the servicing, repairs and replace- and therefore its operational use by will be further compounded by the ment costs. personnel, should be restricted to reduction in fire cover due to appli- The second factor is the training smaller groups capable of reaching ances that are unavailable, particu- implication. Every operational mem- the risk areas within the right time. larly in areas covered by firefighters ber of the Service will require initial This option will significantly reduce conditioned to the retained duty sys- training. For firefighters conditioned financial costs and also the number tem, where the distance to travel is to the wholetime duty system sta- of personnel which the Service ex- greater and the turnout time longer. tions, this will be carried out during poses to risk. If a smaller number of The evidence would therefore sug- duty hours - in some cases this may personnel are using a specific item gest a two-tier level of operational be away from station. For firefighters of equipment, it follows then that the response dependant on which part conditioned to the retained duty sys- number of times they will use the of the county the RTC occurred. The tem, additional training hours will be item operationally will be significantly difference in response levels would required. The crews will then need to higher than if the incidents attended be in the time taken for an attend- maintain competencies. For crews were spread across the whole Serv- ance by the Service due mainly to frequently using the equipment op- ice. the distance to travel, traffic congestion, availability of appliances and to a degree the operational experience of the crews.

‘The Right Equipment’

The right equipment is that which will safely and effectively carry out a particular task or tasks, for which it is specifically designed, at the relevant incident under all conditions. Historically, the Fire and Rescue Service has used the equipment with which the appliance was provided, to deal with whatever type of incident the Service was called to. If a task required a specialised piece of equipment to be used, in order to ensure that the operation could be safely and effectively carried out, and that item of equipment was not carried, then firefighters using a combination of ingenuity and

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 73

Future Constraints Future Constraints

Funding acknowledge that few parts of the placed on the FRS by the public and public sector have undergone the the Government, must not exceed Introduction scale and speed of change being our capability to deliver. experienced by the FRS. The chal- Representatives of the Chief Fire lenge this poses for the manage- Comprehensive Spending Reviews Officers’ Association (CFOA) and ment team of ECFRS cannot be the LGA, have raised concerns to underestimated, particularly in terms The Comprehensive Spending the Government that the three ma- of the financial cost of initiating and Review in 2007 was a zero-based jor resilience projects (FireLink, Fire- then supporting that change of pro- review. It established Government Control and New Dimension), to- gramme and how this continued spending priorities and expected gether with other initiatives such as programme of change will be funded efficiencies and savings over the electronic, incident reporting, Equal- in the future. three years, 2008/09, 2009/10 and ity & Diversity programmes and the The FRS is now a key player in 20010/11. In his April 2009 Budget responsibilities placed on Authori- local Sustainable Communities pro- statement the Chancellor confirmed ties following the changes brought grammes; it has a reputation for that the government grants for about by the Civil Contingencies Act delivering and for acting as a cata- 2010/11 would remain unchanged (CCA) in 2004, are stretching the ca- lyst for action. However, the collec- but a further 1% in efficiency savings pacity of FRSs to deliver. We must tive weight of national expectations was required.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 74 Strategic Assessment of Risk The next spending review period, The Cost of the Fire Service budget in April 2009. In the previ- from 2011/12 to 2013/14 is likely ous efficiency period from 2004/05 to be more challenging, regardless Overall expenditure on the fire to 2007/08 Essex delivered the fol- of which political party is in power. service in England has risen from lowing savings totalling £4.7m: Financial planning is based on a £1.3 to £2.1 billion between 1997/98 “worst case scenario” of cuts in gov- and 2007/08; a 25 per cent rise in 2004/05 £452k ernment funding to match efficiency real terms. This is in line with the 2005/06 £307k targets and restrictions in council real terms rise in expenditure on the 2006/07 £1,707k tax increases. Under this scenario police service over the same period 2007/08 £2,252k budget savings of some £5m per (28 per cent). annum will be needed from 2011/12 Combined Fire Authorities, like EC- These savings were largely onwards. FRS, are funded through a combi- achieved through the reallocation of nation of central government grants posts to support community safety Rising to the Challenge and council tax precepts. For Essex, activity and from procurement sav- 43% of the net budget is funded by ings.Other efficiency options re- In December 2008 the Audit Com- government grants in 2009/10. vealed in the Audit Commission’s mission published a report on the The fire service, nationally, is also report include: scope for further efficiency savings required to find further annual cash- in fire and rescue services. In sum- releasing savings of £110 million • Changes in working practices mary they found: by 2011, equivalent to 5 per cent of provisional expenditure figures • Reduced staffing, and pumping • The best fire services have shown for 2007/08, with an additional 1% appliances how efficiency savings worth up in 2010/11. These efficiency sav- to £200 million can be achieved ings are not reductions in the overall • Tighter management control budget, but changes to the activities • Most of the gains in efficiency and funded through the budget. Work • Greater collaboration with other performance to date have been by the Audit Commission has found agencies made by a few fire services that the largest single source of efficiency savings for English fire and • Changes in procurement proc- • The fire service could be more ef- rescue authorities, is from changes esses ficient and effective if it improved to firefighter shift patterns. regional and local collaboration Nationally, the fire service has re- Efficiency Savings ported £185 million of cumulative, • Fire services need to continue to annually recurring, cashable efficien- adapt to changing circumstances Essex now has a target of £4.2 cy savings. This equates to 9 per million of efficiency savings over cent of total expenditure in 2007/08, The AssetCo Report on Fire and the three year period 2008/09 to and is much higher than the origi- Rescue 2008 2010/11, including the extra £0.7m nal target of £105 million annually announced in the Chancellor’s recurring savings from 2005/06 to

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Background 75 The Fire Brigades’ Union (FBU) used the PTW Regs to argue that firefighters conditioned to the retained duty system, as part-time workers, are being discriminated against in relation to their wholetime colleagues. The FBU lodged Employment Tribunal claims in 2000 claiming that they should receive the same entitlements to mem- bership of the firefighters’ Pension Scheme, sick pay, and additional 2007/08. Almost half of these sav- crease in the end salary figure due to pay for additional responsibilities as ings were made from revising shift overtime incurred through fire calls. their colleagues conditioned to the patterns and crewing arrangements. On fire stations crewed by firefight- wholetime duty system. ers conditioned to the retained duty The cases were brought against Looking Ahead system, the most significant cost is all Fire Service employers of firefight- again, the bill for salary payments. ers conditioned to the retained duty A station crewed by firefighters However, due to the fact that the system who were FBU members conditioned to the retained duty sys- end salary figure consists largely of - throughout the United Kingdom tem costs financially, on average, ten payments accrued by these firefight- and what was then the Office of the Future Constraints times less to operate than a station ers through their attendance at fire Deputy Prime Minister, (as the ad- crewed by firefighters conditioned calls, the figure is unpredictable and ministrator of the Pension Scheme) to the wholetime duty system . This therefore subject to variations in op- but is now the Department for Com- highlights the valuable contribution erational response. munities and Local Government the retained duty system provides (DCLG).Twelve “lead” cases were towards delivering a cost effective Retained Firefighters and the Part- selected from the Royal Berkshire service to the people of Essex. The Time Workers (Prevention of Less and Kent and Medway Towns Fire most significant cost incurred in pro- Favourable Treatment) Regulations Authorities, out of a total of 12,000 viding an operational fire station is 2000 employment cases lodged. There the bill for salary payments. are approximately 18,000 firefight- The higher cost of crewing special Introduction ers conditioned to the retained duty appliances, such as aerial ladder across the UK. platforms, was addressed as part of The Part-Time Workers (Preven- the 2008/11 Integrated Risk Man- tion of Less Favourable Treatment) Tribunal Outcome agement Plan, and in December Regulations 2000 PTW Regs deal 2008 the Authority decided to end with discrimination against part-time The key question for the Tribunal primary crewing of these appliances workers. The PTW Regs give part- to decide was whether firefighters with dedicated crews. time workers a right to the same conditioned to the retained duty sys- In addition to the centrally negotiat- pay and terms and conditions of tem carried out the same, or broadly ed salary costs, payments are made employment (contractual and non- similar work as firefighters condi- to firefighters in the form of overtime contractual), on a pro-rata basis, tioned to the wholetime duty sys- payments. In 2008/09 these pay- as full-time workers with a similar tem. The claims were rejected at the ments were some £775k, around contract, doing the same or broadly Employment Tribunal, the Employ- 2% of the total pay bill for wholetime similar work, unless any difference ment Appeal Tribunal and the Court firefighters. These payments are in treatment can be objectively justi- of Appeal. But the House of Lords incurred when a firefighter works fied. Full-time workers who become ruled that “retained and whole-time outside of the designated duty pe- part-time, are entitled to retain pro- fire-fighters” were employed under riod due to fire calls, but more often rata terms and conditions the “same type of contract”. Em- than not when they remain on duty There is no general definition ployers could not draw a distinction after the designated duty period in of a full time or a part time worker between the two types of contract order to ensure an appliance re- in terms of the numbers of hours and defeat the claim. mains operational whilst the station worked. Who is a full-time worker The House of Lords stated that awaits the arrival of an out-duty fire- and who is a part-time worker is de- particular weight should be given fighter. The annual cost of a station termined by the custom and prac- to the extent to which their work is crewed by firefighters conditioned to tice of the employer. In relation to the exactly the same, and to the impor- the wholetime duty system is largely Fire and Rescue Service, firefighters tance of that work to the enterprise predictable because the largest pay- conditioned to the wholetime duty as a whole. If a large component of ment, i.e. salary, is known at the be- system are regarded as full-time and their work is exactly the same, the ginning of the financial year. firefighters conditioned to the re- question is whether any differences An increase in operational retained duty system are regarded as are of such importance as to prevent sponse will only cause a minor in- part-time workers. their work being regarded overall as

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 the same or broadly similar. only that the exclusion of firefight- benefits to those who are in law 76 In the leading judgment, Law Lord ers conditioned to the retained duty part-time as those who are in law Baroness Hale noted that “the Tribu- system from the Fireman’s Pension full time, will incur financial costs all nal found that ‘at the scene of the Scheme (FPS) and their sick pay ar- of which may not be immediately fire the actual job function carried rangements are unlawful. A separate obvious and which will arise dur- out by all attending is effectively the hearing will probably be needed to ing the financial year when budgets same’. The retained and whole-time decide if they can also claim for dif- have been allocated following future firefighters were indistinguishable ferent treatment around payments rulings. The Tribunal’s decision will from one another”. The House of for additional responsibilities. have an impact on terms and con- Lords ruled the original Employment The decision does not require Au- ditions before and after the 2003 Tribunal had misapplied the law in thorities to change the way they test pay settlement. The financial impli- determining that the work of fire- candidates for either duty systems. cations could be greater if they are fighters of both duty systems was Nor does it mean that firefighters are made retrospective. not “the same or broadly similar”. automatically entitled to transfer to If, as the House of Lords states, all This part of the case was referred the wholetime duty system. Authori- firefighters are operating in broadly back to the Employment Tribunal for ties are entitled to require firefighters similar roles operationally and thus re-consideration in the light of the to apply in the normal way for those exposed to the same risks opera- House of Lords’ judgment. roles. tionally, what of the control meas- The Croydon Employment Tribunal Authorities are entitled to con- ures that we employ as employers to found that firefighters conditioned to tinue to apply the national and local mitigate that risk? If you suggest that the retained duty system, were dis- standards, used in assessing can- ‘a firefighter is a firefighter is afire- criminated against when they were didates for promotion, in both duty fighter’ then you accept that all fire- denied access to a pension and the systems. The Tribunal’s decision will fighters may adequately and safely same sick pay (pro-rata) as firefight- have an impact on terms and condi- be asked to face the same risk and

Strategic Assessment of Risk ers conditioned to the wholetime tions before and after the 2003 pay the expectation as an employer is duty system. The judgment, based settlement. that they will respond to that risk in a on the principles set out by the broadly similar fashion. House of Lords earlier in the case, Future Implications The question of whether ‘a fire- establishes the right to equal treat- fighter is a firefighter is a firefighter’ ment between part-time and full- The Tribunal focussed on the is examined in this document under time workers across a whole range rights of the firefighters conditioned Operational Service Delivery. The of employment issues. to the retained duty system to the findings indicate a difference exists The Employment Tribunal found same access to pensions and sick- between the two duty systems, con- for the firefighters conditioned to the ness benefits rights, and in this the cerning the quantity of training regu- retained duty system. That basi- claimants were successful. In addi- larly undertaken and the requirement cally means that other fire authorities tion to sick pay and pensions, it po- for an assessment of the implications would fail if they tried to argue that a tentially includes training and all oth- of that deficit, operationally. The different decision would have been er work-related payments, including findings of the Employment Tribunal reached in their cases. It was agreed expenses. Regulation 5 of the PTW could potentially impact on this dif- with the Fire Brigades Union that the Regs states that: ference in the quantity of training un- decision in the Kent and Berkshire “A part time worker has the right dertaken by crews in order to safely cases would be applied across the not to be treated, by his employer, and effectively deal with all the risks Service nationally. The cases looked less favourably than the employer to which they are exposed. at the situation in December 2000 treats a comparable full time worker”. when the FBU cases were lodged. The future implications for an em- The Tribunal has currently decided ployer, are that providing the same

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 77

Harlow & Epping Community Commands

Harlow District and Hertfordshire, runs through a and issues such as acquisitive crime light industrial area situated on the and anti-social behaviour are often Harlow is a compact, strategically northern part of the town. more prevalent in these areas. located town in West Essex, that Harlow has a population of 79,900, Harlow’s housing stock was main- was built in the 1950s onwards as forecast to rise to 84,100 by 2011. ly constructed by the Development one of the post-war new towns. The The East of England Plan could see Corporation over the period 1950 town’s designer, Sir Fredrick Gib- Harlow approximately doubling in -1980. There are 34,799 dwellings berd, planned the town based on size by 2031. 48,200 people are of in Harlow within an area of 3,054 a series of neighbourhoods sepa- working age (16-64) and account for ha. Resultantly, Harlow is relatively rated by green wedges, which are 62% of the population. The town’s compact with a population density highly valued by local people. These 75 years, and over, population is of 25.79 persons per hectare, (com- green spaces enabled the residen- projected to rise by 13% during the pared to 2.82 for the East of England tial areas to be built at a higher den- period 2004 - 2017. and 3.77 for England). A fairly high sity containing often experimentally Harlow is a multi-cultural commu- proportion of housing in Harlow is designed housing. The neighbour- nity, with black and ethnic minority flatted (22%) compared to regionally hoods were designed with access to persons (non-white UK) accounting (11.4%), and nationally (England), at amenities such as community cen- for an estimated 12.0% of the pop- 14%. tres, shopping, primary schools and ulation. Between 2005 and 2007 The fact that Harlow was built on leisure, all within walking distance. there were 1,650 national insurance the notion of low levels of vehicle Another key principle was that each registrations from non-UK nationals ownership for households, has re- neighbourhood should contain its living in Harlow, which is the highest sulted in severe parking problems own employment area. rate in Essex (33.4 per 1,000 work- for some residential areas and many Harlow is situated just west of the ing age population). The highest vol- cars are parked ‘on the road’ as a M11, a major route from the capital umes of registrations were made by result. Lower levels of secure off to East Anglia and continental ports. persons from Poland, India, Slovak road residential parking affect the It is midway between London Dock- Republic, Ghana, Bangladesh, and level of vehicle crime and criminal lands to the south and Cambridge South Africa. damage to vehicles. As of 2001, to the north. The town is easily ac- Harlow is the ninth most deprived Harlow had a ratio of 37,023 vehi- cessible via the M11, is ten minutes town in the East of England region cles to 33,183 households, or 1.12 from the M25 and is 25 minutes and the third most deprived in Essex. cars per household, which is exac- by train from the City of London, Pockets of deprivation are appar- erbated by the high housing density enabling it to be part of the London ent across Harlow, especially within ratios cited above. commuter belt. The nearest airport the southern part of the town, and As of March 2008, the unemploy- is London, Stansted, approximately around the Town’s centre. There is ment rate in Harlow was at 5.4%, 12 miles away. The A414, a much a strong correlation between neigh- compared to the regional average used arterial route between Essex bourhood deprivation and crime, of 4.2%. Harlow has a very strong

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 research employment emphasis, Stations. households shows that 41% have 78 second only to Cambridge, with ma- It is a popular area with commut- one vehicle, 41% have 2 or more ve- jor employers including Raytheon ers and visiting day trippers alike. hicles and 16% no vehicles. Systems, Nortel and GlaxoSmithK- The southern parts of the district At the current time approx 2,300 line having large premises within the are on the boarders of Greater people are unemployed in the Ep- town. On the whole, the balance of London and are more populous ping Forest District area, of this industrial groups in Harlow is indica- and urbanised; these areas include number 28% are temporarily un- tive of the picture both regionally and Loughton, Buckhurst Hill, Chigwell employed, 25% are aged 16-24, nationally. The town’s business birth and Waltham Abbey. Over 40% 23% aged 50+, and 6% have never rate, i.e. number of new businesses of the population live in Loughton, worked. How the current downturn per 1,000 economically active per- Buckhurst Hill and Chigwell. There is in the economic prosperity of UK Plc sons, at 5.20 is lower than the re- a small ethnic minority population of will affect this number, is unclear. gional level of 6.48 and national aver- approx 5%; Epping Forest has the The main industrial sites are in age of 6.36. largest traveller population in Essex. Loughton, Waltham Abbey and On- Over eight and a half thousand Of the 123,400 population for the gar, where engineering, chemicals Harlow families are in receipt of child district, almost 77,000 are of work- and printing are the most significant tax credits, which equates to the ing age which equates to 63% of the industries. The main employers in highest ratio per working age popula- population. The East of England plan the District include Sainsbury’s Dis- tion in Essex. Coupled with high Job predicts that housing in Epping For- tribution Centre, Epping Forest Dis- Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant est will increase in line with other Es- trict Council, the Bank of England, rates, high numbers of lone parents sex districts such as Brentwood and Epping Forest Primary Trust and the claiming benefits and low average Castle Point, however the planned Higgins Group. resident earnings; this is an indication expansion in the Harlow District by Other considerations include two of low-income families and childhood urban extensions into Epping Forest airfields in Epping Forest, at North

Strategic Assessment of Risk poverty. District will impact in the area. Weald and Stapleford Abbotts. They Whilst Epping Forest is a prosper- both host general light aviation, and Epping Forest District ous district, there are areas of rela- at North Weald gliding and historic tive deprivation, mostly at the south- aircraft flying also occurs. The Dis- The Epping Forest District cov- ern end of the district and within the trict has a holding stack over Lam- ers an urban and rural area of 131 M25 ring. The high cost of living can bourne, for aircraft waiting to land at square miles, including around lead to some people being margin- Heathrow. twelve towns and larger villages, alised. Further, the close proximity of ranging in population size of be- Epping Forest to London, whilst pro- Future Developments tween 2,000 and 30,000, totalling viding an attractive area in which to 121,000 people. live, also makes the district vulner- The East of England Plan (May At the heart of the Epping Forest able to transient criminals. 2008) shows how predicted growth District is Epping Forest, which is The housing stock in Epping For- in the area will occur. the largest public open space in the est District is made up of 51,000 The following indicative target for London area. Beginning just north of occupied premises and 1000 un- net growth in jobs for the period Epping and stretching 12 miles into occupied. For a relatively prosper- 2001-2021 are adopted as refer- Manor Park in East London, with a ous area, 17% of these are flats ence values for monitoring purposes total area of 6000 acres. The Forest (compared to 11.4% regionally, and and guidance for regional and local is a conservation area, and a desig- 14% nationally). Semi-detached and authorities: nated Site of Specific Scientific Inter- detached houses make up 55% of Within the relevant area:-Epping est (SSSI) and owned by the Corpo- the housing stock. Owner/occupi- Forest / Harlow / Maldon / Uttles- ration of London. ers make up the vast majority of the ford) 56,000 Epping Forest transport links to housing stock at 73%, whilst rented Ten key centres are mentioned for the capital are unique, in the fact accommodation accounts for 23%. development and change. Eight are that it has 8 London Underground Vehicle ownership for these focused on relatively freely standing

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 urban areas – Harlow being one of centre with mixed use for business, HGV movements from expansion those areas. retail, housing and leisure. along the Thames Gateway cannot 79 With regard to the expansion of Tied to this is Harlow’s geographi- be viewed in isolation and will impact Harlow and the Green Belt, the cal position as a potential hub for on the district. Green Belt will be reviewed to ac- business, research and develop- The Command is covered by commodate the urban extensions. ment as well as the potential impact two whole time stations, one day New green belt boundaries will be of an expanded Stansted Airport. crewed and three with personnel drawn so as to maintain its pur- The outcome of these factors will conditioned to part time contracts poses, and landscape setting of influence the level of future employ- (retained or part time). Harlow and the physical and visual ment in the Town as well as the level separation of the town from smaller of skills and education its inhabitants Local Area Agreement / Local Stra- settlements to the west and north. will require. Investment has been tegic Partnerships & Crime and The review to the Green Belt in the secured for the presence of Anglia Disorder Reduction Partnerships north of Harlow should provide for Ruskin University in the Town. an eventual development of at least Epping Forest The Service is fully engaged with 10,000 dwellings and possibly sig- The impact of the 2012 Olympic the Safer Harlow Partnership, and nificantly more – of a large enough Games on the district is hard to spe- Epping Forest District Council Local scale to be a model of sustainable cifically expand upon, other than by Strategic Partnership. Additionally, development. using the information already widely the command commits to the Com- in the public domain such as in- munity Commander chairing the Harlow creased housing, transport and traf- Harlow Anti Social Behaviour Group, fic et al. and being a member of the Respon- The strategy for Harlow is: Any expansion of Harlow will im- sible Authority Group for Harlow, To promote the renaissance of pact on the Epping Forest District ADO Fire Safety chairs the Epping Community Commands the ‘new town’ through developing Council area as indicated in the Forest Safer Communities Partner- its role as a major regional housing East of England Plan; the transport ship Co-ordinating Group. Through growth point, major town centre, links to London are predominantly engagement with these groups and strategic employment location through the district, and increases community command staff have en- to 2021 and beyond. Regeneration in population and traffic in the Har- hanced, and continue to enhance, and redevelopment of the existing low area will increase the same as in the commands capacity through town and urban extensions will be the EFDC area. It is clear that some partnership working to deliver in the combined with transport measures parts of the urban fringe will be used community safety arena. and enhancement and conservation to accommodate urban extensions of green infrastructure to fulfill this of Harlow. Priorities for Harlow LSP strategy. • Alcohol-related crime and Development Plan Documents Summary of Impacts disorder (principally Town Centre) should provide for a total of 16,000 additional dwellings between 2001 It is clear that in common with the • Domestic Violence and 2021, including urban exten- rest of Essex and the south east of • Children and Young People as sions in Epping Forest (3,500 new the United Kingdom, there is central Victims homes) and East Hertfordshire dis- government pressure to put more • Fear and perceptions of crime tricts. Additional housing should be dwellings, people, and associated • Anti-social behaviour provided, within the existing area of risk into an area that is already very the town and through urban exten- heavily populated. • Business related crime sions to the north, east, and on a It is apparent that any proposed • Offender management smaller scale the south and west. increase in the population of the • Drugs and alcohol (substance Joint or coordinated Development south east requires support in the misuse) Plan Documents drawn up by the form of all type of infrastructure; from • Vehicle crime three district councils, should de- schools, to roads, to hospitals et al. termine the appropriate distribution Increases in population increase • Dwelling burglaries between the urban extensions. the need for emergency service re- • Speeding in residential areas Harlow has been identified as a sponse, and how ECFRS can re- Key Centre for Development and solve these conflicts and issues is Priorities for Epping Forest SCP Change, and in the medium to clearly a county wide problem, not • Violent crime – robbery, domestic longer term, the most prominent unique to the Harlow and Epping issue affecting Harlow will be po- Community Command. • violence, hate crime, assaults tential growth and housing. Harlow The M11/M25 transport links and • Domestic burglaries could approximately double in size surrounding roads infrastructure are • Anti-social behaviour, including by 2031 and housing and business heavily used at the present time; the • vehicles used in an anti-social way growth is a key issue locally. proposed expansion of the districts There are well advanced plans to will potentially increase the opera- • Drugs and alcohol (substance regenerate Town Centre North, with tional response requirement by the misuse) planning approval sought in 2009. fire services in the area; including • Prolific offenders The aim is to create a vibrant Town Essex, Herts and London. Increased • Fear and perceptions of crime

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 80 Harlow and Epping Community Command

Harlow and Epping Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Harlow and Epping Command.

• Primary fires have increased in the past year-

• Deliberate primary and secondary fires have both increased over the past two years .

• Accidental dwelling fires have increased over the past 2 years.

• Road traffic collisions have decreased in the past year

• Other emergency special service calls have shown little change for the past three years

• Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years. Strategic Assessment of Risk Fig 42 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Harlow and Epping

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 81 Fig Primary Fires in Harlow and 43 Epping Community Command Community Commands

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 44 Harlow and Epping Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 82

Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires in 45 Harlow and Epping Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires in 46 Harlow and Epping Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 83

Fig Road traffic collisions in 47 Harlow and Epping Community Command Community Commands

Fig Other Emergency Special 48 Services in Harlow and Epping Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 84

Fig Hoax Calls in Harlow and 49 Epping Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 85 Community Commands

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 86

Basildon & Castle Point Strategic Assessment of Risk

Basildon District whilst the lowest are in Billericay 31% in Great Britain overall. West and Burstead. Of the people in The wards of Billericay West, Lee Situated some 30 miles South East Basildon who were of working age Chapel, Fryerns, and Pitsea North of London, Basildon District is set (i.e. those aged 16 to 64 for men or East are the most populated. In the 4 miles north of the River Thames. 16 to 59 for women) the employment Indices of Deprivation 2007, Basil- Basildon is the largest District in the rate was 75% during the Summer don was ranked at 136 out of 354 Eastern region with a population es- of 2004 (June to August), which is local authorities in England. Percent- timated at 172,900 (ONS 2008 mid the average for Britain. However, as ages of areas of deprivation in each year estimates), in approximately highlighted by the age profile earlier, district are 18% for Basildon (highest 70,843 households. Covering some over the same period, the number of in Essex). 42.5 square miles, the District in- people in employment in Basildon as cludes the towns of Basildon, Bill- a proportion of those of working age Castle Point ericay and Wickford, each of which was 79% compared to 75% for Brit- has its own fire station, the final two ain. 28% of the District’s workforce Castle Point is unique in having being on a retained duty system. Es- commutes to London. two distinct areas, the Mainland to sentially Basildon Fire Station covers Basildon District is the commercial the north, on which the major settle- everything in the district south of the and business hub of South Essex, ments of Hadleigh, South Benfleet, A127. BME groups account for ap- accounting for almost a quarter of Thundersley and New Thundersley proximately 9% of the population the manufacturing output for Es- are located, and Canvey Island to (provisional data from Basildon DC sex. There are approximately 3,800 the south. The northern boundary of population survey April 2008). businesses in the district employing Castle Point Borough runs along the Basildon District grew by 3.9% in 68,369 people. Basildon District is a A127. overall population since the 2001 major player in the Thames Gateway To the east, the urban areas of census. The population density of region, a priority area for regenera- Castle Point are largely separated the District in 2002 averaged 1,512 tion, and is recognised as the busi- from Southend by the open areas people per square kilometre, com- ness and economic hub of South of Belfairs Wood and the Hadleigh pared with an average of 284 for the Essex. On 1st April 2004 Basildon Castle Country Park which is to host region and 380 people per square had 1,113 retail premises. There the Olympics 2012 Mountain Biking kilometre for England overall. Com- were also 727 office premises, 971 event. The Borough also has direct pared nationally and regionally Basil- factories and 643 warehouses. links to London via the A127, A13 don District has a young age profile. Between September 1999 and and the Southend to Fenchurch Unemployment stood at 7.1% September 2004 the number of Street Railway line. (Oct 2008 – Sep 2009) and varies young people aged 18 to 24 years The Borough has grown to an esti- significantly across the District. The who were claiming work related mated population of 88,900 residents highest rates of unemployment are benefits increased by 69% in Basil- which has been reasonably consist- in the Vange and St Martin’s wards don, compared to a reduction of ent over the past 20 years. There are

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 an estimated 36,000 households in 1. Developing a Prosperous 5. Safer and Stronger Communities Castle Point with the population den- Economy. (stronger). 87 sity in 2002 averaged 1,935 people per square kilometre, compared with 2. Promoting Community Safety. The partnership is made up of the an average of 284 for the region and CPDC LSP Executive Group, sup- 380 people per square kilometre for 3. Providing Homes for the Future. ported by four thematic partnerships England overall. which mirror the thematic Groups of Of the 87,000 people residing in 4. Maintaining a Clean and the Local Area Agreement (LAA). Castle Point, 5% were children un- Sustainable Environment. These are: der five and 21% were of retirement age (65 and over for males or 60 and 5. Improving Heath and Wellbeing. • Safer and Stronger Communities. over for females). The equivalent figures for England and Wales were 6. Raising Educational Achieve- • Children and Young People. 6% under five and 19% of retirement ment. age. • Healthier Communities and Older There are five main shopping are- 7. Promoting Inclusive Communi- People. as; these are located at the Rayleigh ties. Weir Trading Estate and within the • Employment, Skills and town centres of Canvey Island, 8. Developing an Effective Business. South Benfleet, Hadleigh and - Tar Transport System. pots. There are also major employ- The common denominator with ment areas at Rayleigh Weir, Manor The Basildon objectives will be regards to the LSP’s is that they Trading Estate and Charfleets Indus- delivered with the assistance of the have both identified that to achieve trial Estate. On 1st April 2004 Castle LSP thematic group partnerships the targets set out they need to Community Commands Point had 701 retail premises (in- and agencies that are working and work with other partners. With this cluding shops, financial and profes- reporting the progress to the Basil- in mind the Service has entered sional services and food and drink don LSP executive board. In order into a number of partnerships, the outlets, but excluding public houses to assist with this Basildon and most high profile being Fire Watch and hotels.) There were also 237 of- Castle Point Community Command and smoke detector fitting with St. fice premises, 430 factories and 204 (B&CPCC) are members of the Georges Community Housing. warehouses. Crime and Disorder Reduction Part- Of the people in Castle Point who nership (CDRP) which is split into the Future Developments were of working age (i.e. those aged four groups listed below: - 16 to 64 for men or 16 to 59 for wom- Much of the future investment in en) the employment rate was 78% • Basildon Prolific and Priority the Basildon and Castle Point area during the Summer of 2004 (June Offenders (catch and convict, rests with the Government’s Thames to August), compared with an aver- prevent and deter). Gateway project. This extends into age for Great Britain of 75%. Over London and the South-east, with the same three months in 1999, the • Making Communities’ Safer a Thames Gateway/South Essex number of people in employment in Group. sub-region, which comprises the Castle Point as a proportion of those five authorities of, Basildon, Castle of working age was 79% and the • Community Safety Action Zone. Point, Rochford, Southend-on-Sea rate for Great Britain was 75%. and Thurrock. There is a £1.4 billion In Castle Point there were a total • The Anti Social Behaviour / Youth regeneration project for Basildon, of 35,991 dwellings in April 2004 of Task Team Group. Pitsea and Laindon town centres. which 789 (2.2%) were vacant. This This will be delivered through the compares with ‘unfitness’ levels of The Castle Point District Council provision of over 10,700 new hous- 3.1% in the East of England region (CPDC) LSP believes that the best es and 11,000 new employment op- and 4.8% in England as a whole. way to achieve their targets is by portunities. The regeneration also in- In the Indices of Deprivation 2004, focusing on the following list which cludes provision of better transport Castle Point was ranked at 245 out will ensure the best progress can be interchanges and further education of 354 local authorities in England. made in achieving the strategic ob- investments, such as new campus Castle Point has fallen considerably jectives set by Essex County Council supporting high quality vocational in the national rankings on overall for the CPDC. learning. deprivation (down 35). Further examples of future devel- 1. Healthier Communities and Older opments for the area are outlined Local Area Agreement / Local Stra- People. in a development framework which tegic Partnerships & Crime and includes: Disorder Reduction Partnerships 2. Employment Skills and Business. • Updating transport, improving The Basildon Local Strategic Part- 3. Children and Young People. pedestrian access and reducing nership (LSP) seeks to achieve the traffic dominance; following strategic objectives for the 4. Safer and Stronger Communities district: - (safer). • providing 500 new jobs and

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 1,500 additional homes; on Canvey Island to showcase its the Community Command with the 88 rich environmental resources. Pub- main games close by in Stratford, • creating a landscaped environ- lic space improvements for Canvey East London. Further considerations ment with links to green areas; Seafront have been commissioned include: - and and 1,000 new homes are planned along with proposals to improve • Participating in planning, training • bringing more life to the centre transport links to the Island. & exercises with community and leisure Traffic links are also to be improved facilities. to the Island, with the Sadlers Farm • The potential of facilitating athlete roundabout being improved to pro- training and accommodation Further initiatives in the plan in- vide better vehicle movement. Other venues clude helping to attract new retail, advances to the transport structure commercial and housing develop- by 2011 include: - • Safety procedures of additional ments to the town centre. An ex- events ample of this is English Partnerships • upgrades to the M25, A127 and the Housing Corporation who and A13 • Significant impact on localised are supporting the development of transport links the Gardiner’s Lane site which has • extending the A13 Passenger the capacity for over 400 mixed ten- Transport Corridor from South- • Increased security issues and ure homes, a business hub with over end to Basildon and Canvey terrorism threat 7,000 jobs, public open space and Island improved access to the A127 and to • Siting of temporary accommoda- passenger transport. • delivery of an inter-urban express tion for spectators Also planned is the regeneration bus network

Strategic Assessment of Risk of the Craylands estate, which will • Increased need to liaise with provide around 1,300 new or mod- • increased use of the Thames other agencies and enhance ernised homes and new community estuary for water based transport partnership working facilities and £2m from the Thames Gateway programme fund has been • completion of the A127 and A13 • Plan to ensure Service core busi- allocated for a 74 hectare conser- route management improvement ness remains unaffected; Busi- vation site at Nevendon Nature re- ness Continuity Management serve in Basildon. Also, on Canvey Also by 2021: Island, a development of employment opportunities and revitalisation • creating the Benfleet-Wickford of South West Canvey and the town passenger link Olympic Staduim centre supported by an improved transport network is planned. • creating new or improved access Basildon business economy will to Canvey Island be enhanced by providing an additional 135,000sq m of commercial • design and preparation work floor space. There is also the re- for a South Essex rapid transit generation of a number of housing system (light rail) estates in the Basildon New Town area. Quality of life improvements In addition to a total of 10,700 include a new Sporting Village for additional dwellings planned for in completion in 2010, which will pro- the Basildon District (by 2021), and vide world class swimming, gym- 4,000 in the Castle Point Borough, nastics and athletics facilities for the the need is highlighted to address community and will be a potential areas such as, undistinguished ur- training camp for the 2012 Games. ban areas, poor quality landscapes. The Olympics highlights a number Other initiatives taking place include Emphasis is being placed upon con- of obligations due to the Civil Con- the regeneration of Wat Tyler Coun- sideration of the environmental im- tingencies Act (CCA) (2004). This try Park in Pitsea which is being plications for water supply, flood risk reinforces the need for cooperation turned from a former explosives fac- and flood defences in our changing between emergency services, local tory into a heritage centre powered climate. authorities and other frontline re- by renewable energy. One of the most significant events sponders at the local level. For Castle Point the focus is on to happen in the Command in the Whilst these CCA issues are not employment and the town centres coming years is the use of Hadleigh exclusive to them, the two COMAH by improving the economic land- Castle Country Park for the Olym- sites situated in Canvey represent scape of the Borough. Existing in- pics 2012 mountain biking event. the locations with the most promi- dustrial estates will see new invest- This will generate significant inter- nent risk in the public’s eye. The ment with 1,700 new jobs projected. est in the area, but is only part of Service continues to work to en- There will also be development of a the impact of the Olympics when hance its already extensive working number of environmental projects considering the overall impact on relationship in these areas

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 89 Basildon and Castle Point Community Command

Basildon and Castle Point Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Basildon and Castle Point Command. Primary fires have increased in the past year-

• Primary fires haveincreased in the past year-

• Deliberate primary fires haveincreased in the past year .

• Deliberate secondary fires showeda slight increase on previous year

• Accidental dwelling fires haveincreased over the past 2 years.

• Road traffic collisions havedecreased in the past two years

• Other emergency special service calls have increased over the past two years

• Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years. Community Commands

Fig 50 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Basildon and Castle Point.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 90

Fig Primary Fires in Basildon 51 and Castle Point Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 52 Basildon and Castle Point Community Command

TO BE CONFIRMED

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 91 Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires 53 in Basildon and Castle Point Community Command Community Commands

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires in 54 Basildon and Castle Point Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 92

Fig Road traffic collisions in 55 Basildon and Castle Point Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Other Emergency Special 56 Services in Basildon and Castle Point Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 93

Fig Hoax Calls in Basildon and 57 Castle Point Community Command

TO BE CONFIRMED Community Commands

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 94 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 95

Chelmsford & Maldon Community Commands

Chelmsford District ford is only 35 minutes away from Festival continues to grow each year London by train or a 30 minute drive and is now the second largest mu- Chelmsford is the County town from Stansted, London’s fastest sic festival behind Glastonbury. The of Essex and is not only one of the growing airport. The A12 provides park was host to over 10,000 scouts largest towns in Essex but also one rapid connections to the M25 and from 60 countries for the European that is seeing continual develop- the East Coast ports. Scout Jamboree (EuroJam) in 2005, ment. The modern Chelmsford Bor- Just outside Chelmsford is Hy- and in 2007 the centenary World ough joins the ancient County Town lands House, a beautiful Grade II Scout Jamboree. with the much newer community of listed neo-classical villa, set in the Educational facilities in Chelms- South Woodham Ferrers and the 509 acre Hylands Park. Hylands ford are excellent. The town is the surrounding rural areas, including Park is also the venue for national, home of Anglia Ruskin University, some of Essex’s most picturesque award winning open-air music and whose new campus was opened by villages. entertainment festivals. The re- Her Majesty the Queen in May 1995 The population is approximately nowned ‘V’ concerts have provided and now boasts an internationally 165,400 and many thousands travel the best of contemporary rock and acclaimed Business School. Also into the town for work or leisure. pop music live over one weekend in within the Borough is Writtle College Right in the heart of Essex, Chelms- August each year since 1996. The V - an internationally recognised centre

Maldon, Essex

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 for horticulture, agricultural and al- homes in the District. foster mutual respect with other 96 lied studies. Chelmsford has state Local Area Agreement / Local groups, particularly the elderly. schools annually in the national “top Strategic Partnerships & Crime and ten” for GCSE results and there are Disorder Reduction Partnerships • Reduce anti-social behaviour in also a number of private schools. The Chelmsford Local Strategic the community. To the south-east of Chelmsford Partnership (LSP) seeks to achieve and built in the early 1980s, South the following strategic objectives for • Reduce reported crime by 5%. Woodham Ferrers is a comparatively the district: new town of around 16,000 people The Service chairs the Maldon Dis- surrounded by open farmland close • Reduce crime trict Community Safety Partnership to the picturesque River Crouch. It Steering Group which co-ordinates is linked by a frequent rail service • Reduce fear of crime the work of the various sub groups with the Essex coast to the east and detailed as follows: London to the west. • Reduce anti-social behaviour • Neighbourhood action panels & Maldon District • Reduce illegal substance misuse joint action groups

The Maldon District is rural in na- The Chelmsford objectives will • Anti social behaviour sub group ture with a long coastline. Maldon be delivered with the assistance of is the main town and Burnham-on- the LSP thematic group partner- • Drug and alcohol reference group Crouch is a smaller market town in ships and agencies that are work- the south of the District. The 2001 ing and reporting the progress to the • Domestic violence forum National Census indicates that the Chelmsford LSP executive board. In District is generally affluent, with order to assist with this, Chelmsford • Tackling crime

Strategic Assessment of Risk pockets of deprivation. The total and Maldon Community Command population is 62,500 and the male/ (C&MCC) are members of the Crime The Spatial Strategy identifies the female breakdown is roughly 50% and Disorder Reduction Partnership urban areas of Chelmsford and South -50%. The non-white minority ethnic (CDRP). The various sub groups Woodham Ferrers as the main focus breakdown is 1.39% and Maldon which support these objectives are: for new development supported by District has the highest number of appropriate development within key travelers’ per capita in Essex. • Quality of Life Group defined settlements. The remaining The District has 31 wards and the housing requirement will take the main employers are in manufactur- • Road Safety Task Group form of new neighbourhoods to the ing, wholesale and real estate. Un- North of Chelmsford’s Urban Area employment is below the national • Drug & Alcohol Reference Group which will be proposed in the North average with the highest three wards Chelmsford Area Action Plan. Provi- standing at 0.9%. • Young people Task Group sion is made for a minimum increase Maldon District is considered to be of 14,000 dwellings in the Borough in one of the safest and least deprived • Violent and Hate Crime Group the period 2001-2021 to meet the full areas in the country. In 2004 a na- range of housing need and lifestyle tional assessment of the 376 Com- • Acquisitive Crime Task Group choices for our communities and the munity Safety Partnership areas provision of a proportion of 9,600 placed Maldon in the top 10% saf- The Maldon District Council (MDC) new jobs. est districts in England and Wales. LSP believes that the best way to However, in items of deprivation a achieve their targets is by focusing The Spatial Strategy also makes number of wards in the District score on the following list: provision for: highly when all the domains are taken into account, especially rural so- • Decrease substance misuse • Existing Commitments across the cial exclusion. In Cold Norton nearly through enforcement, awareness Borough 3,833 Dwellings 8% of households are living below and treatment. the national poverty threshold, and • Future housing developments there is evidence of social exclusion • Manage perception of local crime within Chelmsford, South Wood- in every rural ward in the District. Ac- levels, alleviating concerns to ham Ferrers and key defined cess to public transport, linked to ensure people feel safe. settlements 4,239 Dwellings. rural isolation, is also a factor. The District has 1 top and 1 lower • Meeting community needs by in- • New neighborhoods to the North tier COMAH site, and Bradwell nu- creased partnership engagement. of Chelmsford 4,000 Dwellings clear power station which is currently undergoing a decommissioning • Promote all aspects of road, fire, • Total 16,170 Dwellings process. St Peter’s Hospital is based and marine safety to reduce ac- in Maldon (Maternity, Geriatric wards cidents. Other development includes: and is home to the Primary Care Trust) and there are also a number • Protect and safeguard young • Redevelopment of the County of sheltered housing and nursing people in the community and Cricket Ground to accommodate

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 low rise flats, shops, restaurants, Other development: and bars 97 • Bradwell power station replace- • Redevelopment of the Marconi ment. The existing nuclear reac- site to accommodate 3 high rise tors have been decommissioned (13 storeys) blocks of flats, of- and planning permission is being fices, shops, restaurants and sought for a new reactor to be bars. built adjacent to the existing site. With the recent publication of the • Runwell Hospital. New secure Government’s energy policy it is mental health unit accommodat- anticipated that the plans will be ing 300 patients and 200 staff. approved. Building on the new Opening September 09. site will not begin until 2013 at the earliest. • Outline planning for the town centre redevelopment including an extension to the Meadows shopping centre or new college.

Maldon

Maldon District Council’s local development and spatial plan focus on the following areas: Community Commands

• Housing Needs Assessment including traveller needs. Plan- ning currently exists for 604 new homes, however it is recognised that the Maldon area is one of growth and new housing will be needed to accommodate the rising population within the area despite the difficult economic climate and the down turn of the housing market. A recent survey found 1159 traveller families in the area and of those 349 families are living on unauthorised sites. New authorised sites to accommodate these families are therefore being sought.

• Economic Development Study.

• Strategic Flood Risk Assess- ment. The Dengie peninsula is a designated flood plain and at risk of flooding. The plan will look at the existing and new flood defenses and identify risk premises.

• Retail Study. A plan is being developed with consultants to re-develop Maldon High Street, turning it into a pedestrian zone and establish the market.Open Space and Leisure Audit

• Transport Development Options

• Nature Conservation Study New Housing Construction in Maldon District • Landscape Character Assessment

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 98 Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command

Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Chelmsford and Maldon Command

• Primary fires haveincreased in the past year-

• Deliberate primary and secondary fires have shown little change over the past three years.

• Accidental dwelling fires haveincreased in the past year.

• Road traffic collisions havedecreased over the past two years

• Other emergency special service calls have shown little change for the past three years

• Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years. Strategic Assessment of Risk Fig 58 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Chelmsford and Maldon 99

Fig Primary Fires in Chelmsford 59 and Maldon Community Command Community Commands

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 60 Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command

TO BE CONFIRMED

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 100

Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires 61 in Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires in 62 Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 101

Fig Road traffic collisions in 63 Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command Community Commands

Fig Other Emergency Special 64 Services in Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 102 Fig Hoax Calls in Chelmsford and 65 Maldon Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 103 Community Commands

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 104

Southend & Rochford Strategic Assessment of Risk

Southend-on-Sea Unitary Authority those who fall into high risk groups, the High Street with smaller units may not have been identified in the in district centres along the London Southend-on-Sea is a seaside re- Census or have registered on the and Southchurch Road. Westcliff sort and unitary authority area in the Electoral Roll. In the Indices of Dep- and Leigh-On-Sea also offer a vari- East of England. Southend-on-Sea, rivation 2004 the Borough of South- ety of compact office accommoda- which has Borough status, is part of end was ranked 89 out of 354 local tion. Due to the economic down turn the ceremonial county of Essex on authorities in England. the majority of the larger office ac- the north side of the Thames estu- The 2001 census reported that commodation along Victoria Avenue ary 40 miles (65 m) east of central ` Southend Borough had: is vacant and available for let. How- London. It is bordered to the north ever provisional planning proposals by Rochford and to the west by • 160,257 residents. indicate that these office blocks will Castle Point. be changed into private residential The 2001 Census revealed that • 70,978 households. flats, a care home and new offices. Southend Borough had a population A brand new student accom- of over 160,000. Of this 160,000, • 78% of residents describing their modation facility on London Road 6% were children under 5yrs, and health as good. Southend-On-Sea will be com- 19% were aged over 65yrs. The pleted and ready for occupation on equivalent figures for England and • 30% of 16-74 year olds having no 1st September 2010. This consists Wales at this time were 6% under qualifications. of four blocks up to 10 floors high 5yrs and 16% over 65yrs. providing 561 student rooms and 3 It must be taken into consideration • An unemployment rate of 3.75 shops. that by the very nature of Southend of all economically active people To the east, in Shoeburyness, the being a “seaside” town this figure aged 16-74yrs. Seedbed Centre offers workshop would increase during the summer and office space ideally suited to months with an influx of holiday • Between April 2005 and March smaller companies and start-ups. makers and seasonal workers. Ap- 2006 a total of 39 people were The units can be rented on a short- proximately three million day trip- killed or seriously injured in road term basis and secretarial services pers visit the town each year with accidents in the Borough of and conference facilities are avail- 500,000 visitors attending the an- Southend. able on site for tenants. nual Air Show over two days in May. The brand new University of Es- Further to these figures are the Southend-On-Sea has a varied sex Southend Campus houses the numbers of students attending the business environment, with a wide innovative Business Hub. This in- new University of Essex Complex in range of premises and a variety of corporates the BIC (Business Incu- central Southend who may be resid- development and business opportu- bation Centre), providing modern ing in the area. Also many people, nities. Office accommodation is con- office space to start-ups and young for whatever reason, particularly centrated in the Town Centre and companies. In the Social Enterprise

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 sector, funding has recently been se- by The Stobart Group. • The “Golden Mile” of amusement cured by the Southend Association Town Centre retailing is focused on arcades, pubs, nightclubs, small 105 of Voluntary Services, (SAVs) to cre- the pedestrianised High Street be- hotels and B&B/guest houses, ate a Resource Opportunities Centre. tween Victoria Avenue and the sea- restaurants and “fast food” out- The project will include four training front. The High Street itself stretches lets on the “Sea Front”. This area and conference rooms, retail units down to the seafront and the shops also includes the worlds longest and 15 office units for social enter- include a good mix of well known pleasure pier which stretches prises, extending and redeveloping multiples and independent stores. over a mile into the Thames the existing SAVs building. Future plans for the Alexandra and Estuary, the pier’s history of fires Manufacturing in the Borough is Clarence Road area include special- and other calamities are well concentrated in seven main industrial ist retail shops and boutique area known. The whole seafront area sites and smaller estates totalling 88 which has been enabled through a has been subject to the Central hectares. Most are less than one kilo- partnership between English Part- area master plan metre from the A127 and A13 trunk nerships, East of England Develop- roads. There are a range of commer- ment Agency, Southend Council • To the north of the “Front” is an cial and light industrial units available and Renaissance Southend Ltd. area of mainly converted Victo- and a number of new purpose built The recent £25 million redevel- rian and early 20th century prop- units to house modern business ac- opment of The Victoria, a shop- erties. These “bed sits” and flats tivity. ping centre at the northern end of comprise some of the poorest An expanding aviation based busi- the High Street provides modern accommodation in the county ness cluster has grown up around retail space and an improved link and represent a major life risk. London Southend Airport, provid- between Southend Victoria railway ing maintenance, repair and over- station and the Town Centre. • Roots Hall Stadium, the home haul (MRO) operations to the world’s The town centre offers a range of of League One side Southend Community Commands airlines. World leaders, specialising leisure and entertainment activities. United F.C. the main East stand in manufacturing, engineering and These are supported by a range of of which is of timber construc- electronic services to the airline hotels and bed & breakfast accom- tion. The “all seated” stadium has industry can be found at the air- modation to meet the range of leisure a capacity of over 12,000 and port. The recent planning approval and business requirements, with a at present attracts crowds in ex- granted for the new railway station, newly refurbished 5 storey hotel on cess of 10,000. Plans have been hotel and terminal at the airport will Pier Hill providing 137 bedrooms, approved for a new stadium for ensure that Southend Airport will be conference and gym facilities, an the “Shrimpers” in the “Fossett’s well placed to take advantage of the extension to the roof of 2 floors of Farm” area in the north of the opportunities presented by London high quality residential accommoda- town adjacent to the fire station. 2012. The planned extension to the tion and a casino in the basement runway will also mean that larger, are further proposed. • 7 main line railway stations on fully loaded jets will be able to use the Fenchurch Street line, Shoe- Southend, so attracting more op- In addition to the above other buryness, Thorpe bay, South- erators to the airport. In December items of note are: end East, Southend Central, 2008, Southend Airport was bought Westcliff, Chalkwell and Leigh

The Golden Mile

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 and 2 main line stations on the reasonably affluent and has, rela- ated to aid partnership working be- 106 Liverpool Street line, Victoria and tive to other areas in the County, tween local agencies and the com- Prittlewell. few issues affecting it. However, in munity. The Board co-ordinates the areas there are inter alia significant work, agrees priorities and ensures • 11 high rise residential tower differences in the average age of the targets are met. Two current main blocks, mainly Council owned. population, educational attainment projects are the development of the These blocks house some of the and access to services. Sustainable Community Strategy more vulnerable at risk sections Rochford has fewer young adults 2007 - 2017 (SCS) and the Local of the community, as does the aged 19-31 than the East of Eng- Area Agreement (LAA). “Kursaal” or “Woodgrange” Es- land average. It alsohas fewer young Southend’s LAA 2008 – 11 Strate- tate as it is now known. children (0-4yrs) than the East of gic Objectives for the Borough are: England average. Overall there are • Southend University Hospital more adults aged 52 to 69 than in • Strengthening the local economy. which provides healthcare for the East of England with marginally around 330,000 people through older adults aged 80 and over. The • Raising aspirations and achieve- a comprehensive range of acute older population is not evenly spread ment. services found at the main Prit- throughout the district or within tlewell Chase site and at outlying wards. Highest proportions are in • Making Southend a safer place satellite clinics across the region. Whitehouse (30%), Hockley Central to live. (27%), Wheatley (27%), Hawkwell Rochford South (26%) and Trinity (25%).The • Leading a cohesive community. percentage of older people aged The District of Rochford is situ- over 65- 84 is predicted to increase • Tackling health inequalities. ated within a peninsula between by 53%.

Strategic Assessment of Risk the Rivers Thames and Crouch, The District’s residents have good • Safeguarding a high quality, sus- and is bounded to the east by the access to communication with very tainable environment. North Sea. The District has land high levels of telephone connection, boundaries with Basildon District, PC and internet access and usage. • Revitalising Southend’s image. Castle Point and Southend–on–Sea Most access the internet at home. Borough Councils. It also has ma- Wards in and around Rayleigh Southend’s LAA is essentially the rine boundaries with Maldon and have high accessibility to essential delivery plan for the SCS and com- Chelmsford Districts. It is located services (GPs, Post Offices, shops prises headline outcomes across 4 within south Essex, with linkages to etc); those in the east of the District themed blocks: the M25 via the A127 and the A13 have far less access to services. and 3 mainline railway stations on Rochford contains the most de- 1. Healthier communities and the Liverpool Street line, Rochford, prived areas within the District, with older people Hawkwell and Rayleigh. The major- the most income deprived and the ity of London Southend Airport lies highest unemployment areas. How- 2. Children and young people within the District. ever, compared to other districts this The Rochford District covers an is still relatively low. The workforce of 3. Economic development and area of 65 square miles and is home the district is relatively well qualified enterprise to around 79,000 people. The Dis- with below Essex average of people trict is one with an ever-increasing with no or low skills. There is large 4. Safer and stronger communities. percentage of older residents. It is amount migration to work, although predominantly rural with three larger most people work within Essex. The Southend and Rochford Com- urban areas and a number of small- economic performance of the Dis- munity Command (S&RCC) actively er settlements. The District’s towns trict is poor compared with other engage within the Safer & Stronger and villages are diverse in character districts in Essex. Communities and Children & Young reflecting their history, location and The District is fairly healthy with People themed blocks through Crime size. The character, layout and form high life expectancy, although it & Disorder Reduction Partnership of groups of buildings, streets and does have higher rates of cancer ad- (CDRP) and The Children’s Trust. spaces make a significant contribu- mission than the Essex average. The There are cross-over’s with other tion to providing a sense of population does average amounts blocks and S&RCC staff seek to en- place and adding to the quality of of exercise when compared with gage where appropriate and neces- life in town and country. Residents the rest of Essex but lower than the sary in order to achieve strategic aims have a strong sense of identity with England average. and objectives. For example, healthier their own settlement. communities and older people block The Ministry of Defence Ranges Local Area Agreement / Local Stra- in order to progress work aimed at located on Foulness are managed tegic Partnerships & Crime and reaching older people and those with by QinetiQ. The Facility has a land Disorder Reduction Partnerships vulnerability. mass covering 3,025 hectares In Rochford the SCS 2009 - 2021 (7,500 acres) and 14,165 hectares ‘Southend Together Board’ is the has been produced by the LSP to in- (35,000 acres) of tidal sands. Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) for fluence the Essex wide LAA and the The District is considered to be Southend on Sea. LSP’s were cre- Local Development Framework for

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 the District. The Rochford LSP will be S&RCC actively engage within the ing of strategic and local passenger focusing on the following seven key Safer & Stronger Communities and transport accessibility. This includes 107 areas over the next three years: Children & Young People themed development of Southend Central blocks through CDRP and Childrens and Southend Victoria stations as • Supporting the ageing population. Trust. There are cross-overs with strategic transport interchanges. other blocks and S&RCC staff seek Former Ministry of Defence land • Fostering greater community to engage where appropriate and at Shoeburyness Old Ranges is cohesion. necessary in order to achieve stra- being developed as a large scale tegic aims and objectives. For ex- mixed housing, commercial and lei- • Strengthening the third sector. ample, CWOP in order to progress sure scheme with associated serv- work aimed at reaching older people ice development. This will provide • Increasing accessibility to serv- and those with vulnerability. for some 500 housing units and 7 ices. hectares of employment land. In ad- Future Developments dition, the Ministry of Defence has • Keeping Rochford safe. also declared land at Shoeburyness It is proposed that Southend New Ranges (74 hectares) surplus • Encouraging economic develop- and Rochford develop as a cultural to requirements. Subject to access ment: skills, employment and and intellectual hub and higher improvements, this site offers the enterprise. education centre of excellence. potential to create some 2,000 jobs Within Rochford there is potential to consolidating Research and Devel- • Promoting sustainability across create 3,000 additional jobs princi- opment strengths on a high tech the District. pally based on London Southend business park and 1,000 additional Airport and the adjacent Rochford houses. Rochford District falls within the Business Park. Plans have been approved for a Community Commands Essex LAA which has 10 priorities. The recent planning approval new stadium for Southend United in Six thematic partnerships have re- granted for the new railway station, the “Fossett’s Farm area in the north sponsibility for achieving these pri- hotel and terminal at the airport will of the town adjacent to the fire sta- orities, working closely with the 12 ensure that Southend Airport will be tion. district LSP’s. well placed to take advantage of the There are also proposals for busi- opportunities presented by London ness expansion at Fossetts Farm 1. CWOP (Community Wellbeing 2012. (29 hectares) and within existing and Older Peoples Partnership) Additional housing development employment sites which in total will would come from sites within ex- provide for some 2,500 jobs. The 2. 2012 isting urban areas. There will be a development sites for Rochford and focus on Southend Town Centre Southend are shown in Tables 3. Childrens Trust Boards by regenerating the existing town centre / seafront, led by the devel- 4. GEPF (Greater Essex opment of a new university campus Prosperity Forum) which is currently under construction. A full range of quality sub re- 5. Safer Essex gional services and facilities will be provided in the centre to accom- 6. Sustainable Essex modate 6,500 new jobs and 2,000 additional new homes, with upgrad-

Southend Airport picture credit:Terry Joyce

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 108 Southend and Rochford Community Command

Chelmsford and Maldon Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Southend and Rochford Command.

• Primary fires have increased in the past two years-

• Deliberate primary fires havedecreased in the past two years

• Deliberate secondary fires have shown little change over the past three years.

• Accidental dwelling fires have shown little change in the past three years

• Road traffic collisions havedecreased over the past two years

• Other emergency special service calls have reduced in the past year

Strategic Assessment of Risk • Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years.

Fig 66 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Southend and Rochford

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 109

Fig Primary Fires in Southend 67 and Rochford Community Command Community Commands

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 68 Southend and Rochford Community Command

TO BE CONFIRMED

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 110

Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires 69 in Southend and Rochford Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires 70 in Southend and Rochford Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 111

Fig Road traffic collisions in 71 Southend and Rochford Community Command Community Commands

Fig Other Emergency Special 72 Services in Southend and Rochford Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 112

Fig Hoax Calls in Southend 73 and Rochford Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 113 Community Commands

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 114

Thurrock & Brentwood Strategic Assessment of Risk

Thurrock the Channel Tunnel; the local rail- The north is rural with several vil- way line providing direct access to lages and hamlets, whereas the The Place Central London, the Port of Tilbury south is more urban and industrial- and the City of London Airport make ized. There are 63,000 households Thurrock District is a unitary lo- Thurrock an important national and concentrated in the main population cal authority along the East Thames international centre. centres of Grays, Stanford / Cor- Corridor in the southeast of England. Thurrock covers an area of 165 ringham, South Ockendon, Tilbury, Thurrock has borders with Great- km² and is a central part of the Orsett and Chafford Hundred. er London to the west, the River Thames Gateway regeneration area Thurrock has a very high industrial Thames to the south, and the coun- – the largest brown field develop- and commercial profile particularly ty of Essex to the north and east. ment site in Europe. In the com- along the riverfront, a portfolio which Being both on the river and right ing years this will mean significant currently incorporates eight top tier next to London, Thurrock is served change to the area, including more COMAH sites including the oil refin- with excellent communication links. homes, more jobs and new public ery at Coryton, and Thurrock also The M25 London Orbital Motorway, infrastructure to meet the needs of boasts the regional shopping centre the high speed rail links leading to an increasingly diverse community. of Lakeside.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 The People hectare is 4.47 (2001Census). Brentwood’s unemployment is 115 The current population of Thur- consistently the second lowest in rock is estimated at 148,900 (2006 Essex. The most recent peak in un- estimate) – males 72,000 (49%), employment levels was, in parallel females 76,300 (51%). This repre- with the national economy, experi- sents a population growth of over enced in the early 1990’s. Numbers 16% since 1991. have declined progressively since The Office for National Statistics then to a total of well under 2%, has released population projec- around 500 persons. tions for Thurrock that look at how Brentwood has the M25, A12 and the population is forecast to change A127 trunk roads within the Bor- over the next 25 years to 2031. The ough and rail links with London and projections show that Thurrock’s entered Thurrock between 2004 East Anglia. population is forecast to increase and 2006, nearly 3000 non-UK na- The Borough of Brentwood in- rapidly and get much older over the tionals registered for a national includes the parishes of Ingatestone next 25 years. surance number between 2005 and and Fryerning, Mountnessing, Dod- 2007, with the majority coming from dinghurst, Blackmore, Hook End • Thurrock’s population is forecast Eastern Europe including 800 Polish and Wyatts Green, Navestock, Kel- to increase by 23% over the nationals and 390 nationals of Slo- vedon Hatch and Stondon Mas- next 25 years, reaching 183,200 vakia. sey. These parishes vary in size and by 2031. This represents a big Thurrock has a young population comprise a number of villages with increase of 23% or 34,300 people by national standards. The age pro- many important and historic build- from the current population of file is heavily skewed towards the ings. Within the Borough as a whole Community Commands 148,900 (2006). 0-14 and 25-44 age groups, with there are 510 buildings listed for a lower than average proportion of their historical and architectural im- • Thurrock will see a significant people aged 15-24. The popula- portance. The Borough has a total ageing of its population by 2031. tion is ageing however and a grow- area of around 15,315 hectares. The number of people aged ing proportion of people are aged over 65 is forecast to increase over 65. This trend will continue with The People by 13,800 (a 71% increase) and improvements in health and life ex- people aged over 85 is forecast to pectancy. The current population of Brent- more than double, increasing by wood is estimated at around 72,000. 3,100 people (a 141% increase). Brentwood Approximately 20% of that population is 60 years of age and more • Growth among the younger The Place and this is the single biggest demo- population is predicted to be graphic group, closely followed by smaller. The number of young The Borough of Brentwood is situ- the 0-16 age group (19%). 45% of people aged 0-14 is forecast to ated in the southwest of Essex and people are aged 45 or above. increase by 15% between 2006 has been ranked as the 8th best There are 28,767 dwellings (2001 and 2031 and people aged 15-24 area in the country in which to be census) of which 76% are owner is forecast to increase by 3,900 born in, based on life expectancy occupied, 10% council rental, 9% (a 21% increase) over the same figures for 2002 to 2004 and em- private rental and 2% housing asso- period. ployment rates for 2004 to 2005. ciation. There are 4.47 persons per Brentwood is a mainly affluent bor- hectare and 2.4 persons per house- • More people will mean greater ough and employment within the hold. demand for services and pressure Borough is very much concentrated 23% of people in Brentwood have on infrastructure such as roads, in the service sector, which is mainly no qualifications compared to 29% schooling, health and leisure facili- located in Brentwood Town Cen- nationally. Unemployment in Brent- ties. The ageing population will tre, Brentwood Station and Warley wood is lower than the national av- also place significant demand on Business Park. There are however, erage at just 1.9%. health and social care provision. seven industrial estates and numer- The East of England plan follow- ous other smaller enterprises scat- ing an Examination in Public by an Thurrock is also becoming more tered throughout the Borough. Not- diverse. The proportion of non–white withstanding this, over 50% of the British population has grown from resident workforce commutes out 7.1% in 2001 to 7.8% in 2003. Eth- of the Borough to work, particularly nicity in primary schools has risen into London. The Borough has a to- from 8% in 2003 to 20% in 2007 tal area of around 15,315 hectares. and ethnicity in secondary schools Less than 20% of the Borough is from 5% in 2003 to 14% in 2007. built up. Brentwood itself has a well Thurrock is also seeing rising landscaped character, which reduc- numbers of international migrants, es the impact of the urban environ- over 1,100 international migrants ment. The number of persons per

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 independent board recommends premises, but the increase in traffic 116 that, Brentwood’s housing alloca- movements and changing demo- tion for the period 2001 to 2021 graphics of the area. be increased from 2,900 dwellings in the Draft Plan to 3,500 dwellings Dubai Port World (net). This will obviously result in an increase to the overall population of The most significant development the borough. within Thurrock is that of Dubai Port World. Local Area Agreement / Local Stra- tegic Partnerships & Crime and More than £1.5 billion (US$3b) is Disorder Reduction Partnerships being privately invested by London Gateway’s owners, DP World, the The Thurrock Community Safety fourth largest global marine terminal Partnership (TCSP) is a program company, over the next ten to fifteen board of Thurrock’s Local Strategic adopted the Brentwood Local Stra- years. The project is currently the Partnership (Shaping Thurrock) and tegic Partnership’s mission state- largest capital investment initiative in exists to bring co-ordination and fo- ment, namely: the UK and will become the largest cus to the work of the Local Author- employment creation project in the ity. “To enhance quality of life in Brent- country. It will be accommodated The TCSP has recently published wood ensuring it is a pleasant place on the vacated 1850 acre Shell site its 2008 – 2011 3 year strategic plan in which to live, work and relax for adjacent to PetroPlus oil refinery in which is based upon four strategic the benefit of current and future gen- Coryton. aims which were identified by the erations” The project will incorporate the

Strategic Assessment of Risk Partnerships strategic assessment largest logistics park in Europe at and Community consultation. The Brentwood CDRP Strategy around 9 million square feet, with The overall vision is to make Thur- Group has adopted the following the capability of handling 3.5 million rock a safer place to live, work in aim for its recently published draft transport equivalent units (TEU) con- and visit. Partnership Plan 2008-11: tainers a year. Two new rail lines will The long-term strategic priorities be constructed with proposals for of the TCSP are to; To reduce all crime in the Brent- sixteen trains per day, which would wood borough by March 31st 2011 result in 30% of containers enter- 1. Reduce the number of incidents by 5% on the baseline figure of 4830 ing and leaving the port via rail. This of crime, anti-social behaviour for the year January –December does however mean that the local and disorder; 2007. road network will have to handle the remaining 70% of transport. 2. To bring extra support and pro- Future Developments The quayside itself will be 2.7 kil- tection to the vulnerable; ometers in length once that part Due to the huge regeneration and of the River Thames has been re- 3. To reduce death and serious in- development programs currently claimed, with 6/7 automated berths, jury through accidents and fires going on throughout Thurrock, it is each capable of handling ships impossible to go into great detail for carrying up to 15,000 TEU’s. The 4. To create a safe community by all of the projects. Below some of project it is estimated will create promoting tolerance and good the larger projects have been high- around 10,000 jobs. citizenship lighted as there are some very im- The other economic hubs which portant questions that arise for Es- come from the Thurrock and The Fire and Rescue Service is in- sex Fire and Rescue Service which Thames Gateway Development herent as statutory within the LSP / will need answering in due course, Corporation in addition to the one CDRP structure and are represented once the full extent of such an enor- described above are, on many groups and are the Chairs mous project is understood. for two of the key groups, namely Some of these questions include: Purfleet Fire and Road Safety and the Pro- What will the impact be on our serv- motion of Tolerance groups. ice: how will we plan for it, will we • Housing: 2,500 new homes need more staff/resources, how will The vision for the future is that we fund rising demand, how will we • Commercial Development Thurrock will be the location of continue to understand the needs of choice - a place where people thrive your users? • Creative Industries and prosper; where you can access This is why this document will services that will make a difference; become a live work in progress • Environment and Leisure and where development is sustain- and will require updating during the able and supports our new and ex- coming years to take into account Lakeside & West Thurrock isting communities as they grow. the emerging risk, not just from the construction phases and then the • Arena Essex Regional Leisure The Brentwood CDRP has occupation of the buildings and Development

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 • Expansion of the Lakeside Retail area 117

• Housing 4000 new homes

Grays Town Centre

• Riverside Development (Marina)

• Office Development

• University College Campus

• New Generation Community Hospital

• Housing: 4,000 new homes

Some of the larger projects that are already being worked and con- sulted on include:

The proposed expansion of Lake- side regional shopping centre, the Community Commands current plans are for a further 1 million sq feet.

• New 6th form college £48m

• New Community Hospital Grays £53m Grays Beach • New University A major new childrens playspace and waterpark will be created on

• New Tilbury power station the riverfront. Themed around water and boats, it will have many of the best loved features of the existing beach park, including a large • New Green power station Tilbury Freeport sand pit and wet play area. There will be a cafe, plenty of parking spaces and a secluded sandy beach on the waters edge, recreat- • Tilbury dock expansion (in excess of 1000 ships 2009) ing the towns historic beach.

• Proctor & Gamble High Bay images :Thurrock County Council warehouse expansion by 100%

• Royal Opera House Purfleet

This is not an exhaustive list and due to the current economic climate some of the projects may be delayed or even shelved. However many of these are underway already with funding sources as yet untouched by the global economic state and therefore in our planning assumptions we still need to take these proposals into account when making decisions around resources and response

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 118 Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command

Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Thurrock and Brentwood Command.

• Primary fires have increased in the past year-

• Deliberate primary fires haveincreased over the past 2 years.

• Deliberate secondary fires haveincreased have increased in the past year following a decrease one year ago.

• Accidental dwelling fires haveincreased in the past two years.

• Road traffic collisions havedecreased over the past two years

• Other emergency special service calls have reduced in the past two years

• Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years. Strategic Assessment of Risk Fig 74 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Thurrock and Brentwood

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 119

Fig Primary Fires in Thurrock 75 and Brentwood Community Command Community Commands

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 76 Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command

TO BE CONFIRMED

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 120

Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires 77 in Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires 78 in Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 121

Fig Road traffic collisions in 79 Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command Community Commands

Fig Other Emergency Special Services 80 in Thurrock and Brentwood Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 122

Fig Hoax Calls in Thurrock and 81 Brentwood Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 123 Community Commands

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 124

Colchester & Tendring Strategic Assessment of Risk

Colchester Stations) and Marks Tey. Asian; 1.1% Black and 1.0% Mixed Mersea Island is located about race. The Borough of Colchester is bor- fifteen miles south of Colchester. It Clacton-on-Sea, Walton on the dered by the River Stour to the North has a circumference of 9 miles and Naze, Frinton-on-Sea and Harwich and therefore shares it’s boundary cannot be reached from the main- are all thriving seaside towns that with Suffolk County Council. The land at high tide when the access attract large numbers of holiday- town of Colchester – which boasts causeway “The Strood” is sub- makers in the summer months. The the title of being Britain’s oldest re- merged. Located close to Lower major roads in Tendring are the A12, corded town – is the commercial, Wivenhoe is the Colne Flood Barrier, A120 and A133 but there are also cultural and civic centre of the Dis- providing coastal flooding protec- many important B roads. Some ar- trict. In contrast, rural villages and tion. Forming the boundary at the eas, particularly in St Osyth and small towns combine to enrich the north of the Borough with Suffolk Brightlingsea are dependant upon a diversity of the area. runs the River Stour. single road. Colchester is also the largest Gar- Colchester has a population of Harwich International port is of rison Town in the UK. It is undergo- 174,300. The district covers an area great importance to the area; it is a ing the largest reinvestment and re- of 32,910 Hectares multi-purpose freight and passenger building programme undertaken by port that has approx 240-260 ship- the Ministry of Defence (MOD). Tendring ping movements per month. Colchester town has a lively shopping centre with a cosmopolitan at- The District of Tendring is made up Jaywick Regeneration Master Plan mosphere. Students from all over of a mixture of coastal towns and in- the world study at the University of land villages. The main urban areas Within the last year there has been Essex and the English Study Centre. have, in general, developed adjacent a greater emphasis placed on the Excellent transport links make the to the coastline. Many of these problem of Jaywick, both by the lo- town popular with international and areas are dependant on coastal cal District Council as well as Essex national visitors. Colchester is also defences to protect property and County Council (ECC). In their budget influenced by its long military asso- infrastructure. The major areas of for 2008/09 Tendring District Council ciations and the Colchester Garrison population are Clacton; Frinton; (TDC) committed £1 million from as- is one of the major bases of the Brit- Walton (major sea side holiday ar- set sales to act as seed funding for ish Army. eas) Harwich (a major passenger regeneration projects in the area. Al- Transport links within the Borough port) Manningtree and Brightlingsea. though ECC have not as yet placed include the major roads of the A12, It covers an area of 33,773 Hectares a figure on the funding that they will A120, A134, however, much of the and has a population of 147,600 that give, they have committed to a 15 Borough is reliant on single B roads. is comprised of 71,200 males and year programme, which is likely to Main line railway stations are located 76,400 females. The population has attract between £45-75 million of in- in Colchester (North and Central an ethnicity of 96.0% White; 1.3% S. vestment. This is the strongest com-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 mitment shown by the County as yet sulted widely and listened, trying to who live and work in the borough, to this problem. There has also been balance the need for leadership and plan for tomorrow’s future. Colches- 125 a commitment by the East of Eng- the desire for action with a wish to ter 2020s vision for the future is: land Development Agency (EEDA) develop genuine ownership of Col- to put £5 million of funding into the chester’s vision. • Excelling as a regional centre; Jaywick project. And this years LSP The LSP vision is for Colchester has budgeted £100,000 directly to to develop as a prestigious regional • Working for sustainable econom- a Jaywick scheme as well as other centre Colchester is going to be a ic growth and reducing carbon monies that will indirectly have an ef- centre of excellence and innovation emissions; fect on the area. for culture, education and learning, The Community Command has recognised regionally, nationally and • Providing opportunities for eve- developed its own ‘Jaywick Action internationally. ryone to lead healthy lives and to Plan’, as a key part of our focus in Colchester will become a preferred achieve their full potential; identifying and delivering strategies destination for visitors, for business alongside other partners to help in location and for investment and cre- • A great place to live, work, study providing solutions to the third most ate a sustainable environment in and visit. socially deprived area in the Country. which people will continue to enjoy high levels of health and well-being, To achieve this vision, they have Local Area Agreement / Local Stra- but with modern health and social identified five priorities: tegic Partnerships & Crime and care services for those who need Disorder Reduction Partnerships them.http://www.colchester2020. • Promoting business, increasing com/ employment opportunities and The partnership is made up of the improving educational and skills Crime and Disorder Reduction Part- Tendring attainment; Community Commands nership CDRP, Local Strategic Part- nership (LSP) Executive Group, sup- The Responsible Authorities Group • Reducing congestion, changing ported by four thematic partnerships (RAG) agreed the following priorities travel behaviour and improving which mirror the thematic Groups of for the CDRP to focus on in 2010- the transport infrastructure; the Local Area Agreement (LAA). 11. Anti Social Behaviour, Drug Re- These are: lated Issues, Alcohol Related Issues • Making Colchester an outstand- Public Reassurance and Volume ing visitor destination and cel- • Safer and Stronger Communities. Crime. The priorities were derived ebrating its heritage, culture and from an analysis of partner agency leisure activities; • Children and Young People. information, a review of consultation responses following the distribution • Promoting healthy lifestyles, • Healthier Communities and Older of 4000 questionnaires to residents providing affordable housing and People. of Tendring District. Tendring CDRP reducing homelessness; also held a joint consultation event • Employment, Skills and Busi- with Essex Police Authority to gauge • Creating safer neighbourhoods ness. public opinion. This is against the and stronger, inclusive communi- backdrop of Tendring CDRPs mis- ties. The common denominator with sion statement which is “To reduce regards to the Colchester and Ten- both the incidence and fear of crime The work of Colchester2020 is dring LSP and the CPDC LSP is and disorder and make the area tracked through Assembly Meetings that they have both identified that safer place to live”. CDRP website - that take place in January and July to achieve the targets set out they http://tcdrp.co.uk/ each year. This gives anyone who need to work with other partners to has an interest in the borough the realistically achieve the targets set. Future Developments opportunity to help deliver the vision. Tendring District occupies a large COLCHESTER 2020 - Local Strate- A new partnership between Col- part of the Haven Gateway Sub- gic Partnership (LSP) chester Borough Council and Es- Region, recognised in Draft RPG14 sex County Council was formally (Regional Guidance for the East The Colchester2020 (LSP) was launched on 30 September 2004. of England), as having significant formed in 2002, made up of a group Known as Colchester Renaissance, economic growth and regeneration of high profile community leaders it will support over £1.5 billion of potential. In the Gateway area this from the public, private and commu- new private sector development in potential is connected to growth as- nity sectors who have joined forces 4 key regeneration projects in Col- sociated with the Haven Ports and to spearhead this vision for Colches- chester and will bring far closer links the development of a hi-technology ter. between the two Council’s work on corridor and business clusters. The The Strategy together with a regeneration. Council is also a key member of the shorter-term action plan and targets Colchester 2020 (LSP) has devel- Haven Gateway Partnership, set up is based on local people’s views, lo- oped a Community Strategy. This in 2001 to provide a framework for cal needs and Colchester’s unique will ensure that those who today, promoting economic opportunities opportunities. The partnership con- have a responsibility to the people to secure future prosperity within

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 this major gateway to the East of and a logistics facility. The proposal with significant employment gener- 126 England. will also generate the need for ad- ating development including hi-tech- Within Tendring the proposed ditional associated services and in- nology industry which is within the expansion of Harwich International dustry. A120 corridor and the wider Haven Port at Bathside Bay provides a A further strategic development Gateway area. The development of significant economic and regenera- site is identified on land close to Do- this site is also likely to generate the tion opportunity for the District and vercourt, off the A120 (East of Pond need for associated services which wider Haven Gateway area. The Hall Farm). The site is well located may locate in other parts of the Dis- scheme includes further deep water in relation to Harwich International trict and will therefore, be likely to quayside between Parkeston and Port and the Bathside Bay Container secure further economic spin-off Harwich, the reclamation of approxi- Port site. Development in this loca- benefits. mately 72 hectares of inter-tidal land tion provides a further opportunity to for container handling, a rail terminal secure a high quality business park

Command Performance Matrix

BCCC CMCC CTCC HECC SRCC TBCC UBCC A B Strategic Assessment of Risk C D E F G H I J K L

Matrix Key

A. Deliberate Primary Fires E. Non Fatal Casualties I. Hoax Calls Primary Fires

B. Deliberate Secondary Fires F. Accidental Dwelling Fires J. Station Sickness Absence

C. Primary Fires G. RTC KSI Casualties K. IRS Completion

D. Fatalities in Primary Fires H. False alarms due to apparatus L. Opp Availabilty

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 127 Colchester and Tendring Community Command

Colchester and Tendring Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Colchester and Tendring Command Primary fires have increased in the past year-

• Primary fires haveincreased in the past year-

• Deliberate primary firesincreased in the past year

• Deliberate secondary firesincreased in the past year following a decrease in the year before.

• Accidental dwelling fires haveincreased in the past two years.

• Road traffic collisions havedecreased over the past two years

• Other emergency special service calls have shown little change for the past three years

• Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years. Community Commands

Fig 82 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Colchester and Tendring

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 128

Fig Primary Fires in Colchester 83 and Tendring Community

Strategic Assessment of Risk Command

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 84 Colchester and Tendring Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 129

Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires in Colchester and Tendring 85 Community Commands Community Command

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires in 86 Colchester and Tendring Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 130

Fig Road traffic collisions in 87 Colchester and Tendring

Strategic Assessment of Risk Community Command

Fig Other Emergency Special Services 88 in Colchester and Tendring Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 131

Fig Hoax Calls in Colchester

89 and Tendring Community Community Commands Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 132 Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 133

Uttlesford & Braintree Community Commands

The Uttlesford and Braintree Com- significantly lower but availability borders Hertfordshire to the West munity Command covers the largest and recruitment levels are difficult to and Cambridgeshire to the North. It is geographical area of the seven com- maintain due to economic and de- the largest district in Essex at 63,752 mands which cover Essex. Unlike mographic factors. hectares, and is mainly rural in char- the other commands the fire cover acter with four market towns - Saf- is provided entirely by fire fighters Uttlesford District Profile fron Walden, Great Dunmow, Stan- working the retained duty system sted Mountfitchet and Thaxted, and operating out of twelve fire stations. Uttlesford is located in the North 56 parishes. There are 3,751 listed This means that revenue costs are West corner of Essex. The district buildings and 34 conservation areas.

Rural Uttlesford and Braintree

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Population tional establishments need to travel units were delivered. It is predicted 134 out of the district. that a further 350 units of affordable Uttlesford has a population of housing will be built in Uttlesford be- 71,400 (ONS, 2006) which is set Employment tween 2008 and 2011. The district to increase over the next 10-15 housing requirement is set out in the years with new housing develop- Uttlesford has a working age pop- East of England Plan. This requires ment. 45% of residents are aged ulation of 43,100. There are 39,700 Uttlesford to make a minimum 30- 59, with relatively few residents economically active, of which 32,200 dwelling provision of 8,000 homes aged 20-29 (9%) compared with the are in employment and 6,800 are between 2001 and 2021 and to plan county average. The proportion of self-employed. There are 7,000 eco- for a continuous delivery of housing younger (0-19) and older (60 plus) nomically inactive, of which 6,000 do for at least 15 years from the date of residents is on par with the county not want a job (ONS, 2007). There adoption. (2001 Census). are 34,100 jobs in Uttlesford. 24,700 are full-time and 9,400 are part-time Crime, Alcohol and Drugs Ethnicity (ONS, 2006). 81.1% are in the service sector (2001 Census) - distribu- Uttlesford is a very safe place to Uttlesford has a very small repre- tion, hotels and restaurants (22.1%), live. It has the lowest crime rate in sentation of black and minority eth- transport and communications Essex at 15 per 1,000 population nic groups at 2%, though there are (20.3%), finance, IT, other business (Essex Police, 2008). Across a whole growing migrant worker communi- activities (17.1%), public administra- district this is extremely low and the ties living or working in the district. tion, education and health (17.8%), vast majority of these were criminal other services (3.8%). Unemploy- damage, non-dwelling burglaries, Economic Migrants ment is low at 1%. 0.8% claim Job- and thefts from motor vehicles. Ac- seekers Allowance, of which more cording to the British Crime Survey,

Strategic Assessment of Risk There are 585 registered migrants than half are aged 25-49. The ma- Uttlesford has the lowest crime of all from ‘Accession 8’ countries work- jority (73.6%) claim for less than 6 similar districts across the UK (Es- ing in Uttlesford (Essex Trends, months (ONS, 2008). sex Police, 2008). Uttlesford has a 2007). 74% of these are from Po- rate of violence against the person land, 11% from Slovakia, 7% from Business Community of 8 per 1,000 population, lower Czech Republic, 3% from Hungary, than the national and Essex aver- 3% from Latvia, 2% from Lithuania There are 4,110 VAT registered ages (Essex Police, 2007). The rate and 1% from Estonia. Migrants tend businesses (ONS, 2006). 12% of of crime attributable to alcohol is to work full-time in lower skilled and the resident workforce commute 4.12 per 1,000 population. This is therefore lower income jobs. Agri- to London and a further 13% work lower then the national and regional cultural and care work are common from home (2001 Census). Week- rates and second lowest in Essex. In in Uttlesford. Only a small minority ly average earnings are £577.70, terms of violent crime attributable to declare that they have dependants much higher than the regional and alcohol, the rate of 3.00 per 1,000 living with them in the UK. national averages (ONS, 2007). 45% population is a lot lower than the of people working within the district national and regional averages and Deprivation live outside the area (2001 Census). also the second lowest in Essex. It Workplace average earnings are is estimated that 16.6% of adults in The Indices of Multiple Deprivation £491.6 (ONS, 2007). Uttlesford binge drink, which is be- (IMD) rank for Uttlesford falls in the low the regional average. However, fourth quartile at 341, which makes Housing Uttlesford has high hospital admis- it one of the most affluent areas in sions rates for under 18 year old the country. Uttlesford is the least 76.2% of households are owner- females for alcohol specific condi- deprived district in Essex. However, occupied. Average household size tions at 46.59 per 100,000 people due to its rural nature there are areas is 2.46. Single person households which is above the regional average which are amongst the 25% most make up 9.9% of the district total (NWPHO, 2007). Rates of people ‘access deprived’ wards in England (2001 Census). The average house accessing drug treatment (IMD, 2004). price in Uttlesford is £302,756.46 (Local Knowledge, March 2007), Climate Change Education and Skills significantly higher than the national average of £183,626 (Local Knowl- The UK Climate Impacts Pro- Uttlesford has 34 primary and 6 edge, April 2008). Uttlesford has a gramme has predicted that the secondary schools (2 of which are housing affordability ratio (lower lev- mean annual temperature increase independent). Post-16 learning op- el) of 12, above the regional average for the Uttlesford area even in a low portunities are diverse and providers of 8.56 (Local Knowledge, 2007). emissions scenario will be 2-3°C by include Adult Community Colleges During 2006/07, 82 new units of 2070. Conditions that occurred in and the Youth Service Alternative affordable housing were built in Ut- the 2003 heatwave will be the norm Education Programme. There are tlesford for allocation to those on for summer. Summer rainfall will re- no Further Education Colleges and Uttlesford District Council’s housing duce by 45-60%, and winter rainfall post-16 students who do not remain waiting list and shared ownership will increase by 15-30%. Overall, at one of the three post-16 educa- register. In 2007/08, a further 62 the future local climate will resemble

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Portugal’s current climate, and large including the high cost of living within The Sustainable Community changes will be required to adapt the district; local people want access Strategy is a long term vision for 135 our society and its infrastructure to to services/businesses in this area Uttlesford and its cope. but businesses may find it too expen- people. It aims to create a sus- sive or come up against other prob- tainable community by addressing Carbon Footprint lems in locating here. Commuting to economic, social and environmental work beyond Uttlesford is significant needs. On a per capita basis, Uttlesford because of London and other acces- has much higher carbon dioxide sible large centres beyond its bound- Braintree District emissions than the national aver- aries. Retention of local employment age. Statistics for 2005 from De- opportunities and support for home Braintree has the largest town fra show that for domestic emis- working are important. centre in the District and this to- sions Uttlesford is in the top 10% Uttlesford has a poor record in gether with Freeport development among English local authorities. Of road safety, with a high rate of peo- is a major attractor for people liv- the emissions that will be measured ple killed or seriously injured on our ing outside the District. Witham and for NI186, which include all sources roads. Halstead are smaller market towns minus motorways, heavy industry which serve their more local areas. and aviation, Uttlesford is in the top Uttlesford Futures All the main town centre’s offer a 20% (and the second highest in Es- good range of shops, jobs and serv- sex). Particular problems arise from Uttlesford Futures is the name for ices but each would benefit from the rural nature of the district, which Uttlesford’s Local Strategic Partner- some regeneration. These schemes leads to dependence on private cars ship (LSP). Uttlesford Futures’ work are currently the Council’s top pri- for transport and use of high emis- is guided by the priorities set out in ority. The larger villages have much sions fuels for heating such as oil, the district’s Sustainable Community smaller centers’. Community Commands LPG and electricity. Car ownership Strategy. The Braintree District is gener- and use within Uttlesford is relatively ally affluent and deprivation levels high. 52% of households have 2 or The key themes in this strategy are: are slightly lower than Essex as a more vehicles compared with 37% whole. However there are pockets for Essex, only 12% of households • Children and young people of isolated and deprived communi- have no car (2001 Census). matter ties with quite large inequalities between different areas. For example Road Safety • Staying healthy unemployment rates range from 2% to 5% across the District and there The rate of all people killed or se- • Developing business are a number of areas where around riously injured on Uttlesford’s roads 6%-7% of the population are living in was 75 in 2007. This represents a • Feeling safe fuel poverty with households need- rate of 105.49 per 100,000 popu- ing to spend more than 10% of their lation (Essex County Council) and • Protecting the environment income on fuel to maintain satisfac- is the second highest rate in Es- tory heating. sex after Epping Forest (107.38 per • Getting around The pockets of deprivation are 100,000 population). Young driv- around the District’s three urban ers and motorcyclists predominate. These themes come from a com- centres. These are the northern, However, where the numbers of bination of priorities that have been south-eastern and western areas of motorcyclists killed or seriously in- identified as being important locally Braintree Town, North Witham and jured fell between 2006 and 2007, and ones which central government South Halstead. Although these the numbers of young drivers killed have said that LSPs need to look at. areas are not seriously deprived or seriously injured rose. The work of the partnership is divid- in national terms they experience ed up between six working groups. greater deprivation than the majority Key Issues of areas in the District. These are: The total estimated population for Uttlesford is an affluent area with a the Braintree District as at mid 2007 highly educated population. Unem- • Uttlesford Children’s Partnership is 140,900. The proportion of popu- ployment is currently less than 1%. lation aged over 65 currently stands The key issues for Uttlesford are: • Healthier Communities and Older at 15% and the proportion of the high levels of out commuting from People population aged under 15 is 19%. the district leading to pressures on 13% of the population fall within the the infrastructure; some businesses • Economic Development, Skills age bracket 55-64 and it is these expressing problems expanding and Learning people who will be the next gen- within the district; equality and diver- eration of retirees. The population of sity issues, e.g. disabled people in • Crime Reduction Braintree is set to increase over the rural areas having difficulties access- next 5 years. The percentage differ- ing jobs; many businesses have dif- • The Environment ence in the 65 and over age group ficulty recruiting people with certain is predicted to increase by 14% with skills, caused by a number of factors • Transport a further 2% of the population be-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 ing aged 85 and over. The proportion’s effect on the environment. killed or seriously injured on roads in 136 tion aged 15 and under is going to The Ecological Footprint measures the Braintree District was 71.12 per decrease by 5% compared to mid how much nature we have, how 100,000 population in 2007 – higher 2006 population estimates and much nature we use and who uses than the Essex average of 65.97 and there will also be a reduction in the what. The Ecological Footprint for the regional and national averages. 55-64 year olds by 4%. the world is 2.2 global hectares per person but the UK average is 5.4 Housing Ethnicity global hectares per person. This is 65% higher than our ecological Although house building rates The District has a relatively small budget (the sustainable amount we have been high in recent years, Black and Minority Ethnic popula- can use). The Ecological Footprint prices in the District are much higher tion in relation to the regional and for the Braintree District as at 2002 than the regional average. Afforda- national context. The 2006 mid was just below 5.5 global hectares bility is a serious issue for many peo- year estimate reports 95.9% of the per person (Stockholm Environment ple even with the current reduction population as White, 1.1% as Mixed, Institute). in prices. The delivery of “affordable” 1.3% as Asian or Asian British, 1% In 2004, Essex produced a total of housing has therefore emerged as a as Black or Black British and 0.6% 10.131 mega tonnes of CO², which major issue in the District and much of the population as Chinese or equates to 8.5 tonnes per capita. higher levels will be needed in the other ethnic group. During 2004 and This is almost 1 tonne per person future to meet projected need. The 2007, the District experienced sig- per year less than the UK average East of England Regional Spatial nificant inward migration with over (9.2 per capita). The Braintree Dis- Strategy significantly reduced the 1,300 migrant worker registrations. trict produced an average of 7.49 future housing requirements for the Migrants tended to be young adults tonnes per capita which is almost Braintree District from current levels, aged 18 – 34 years and two-thirds 1.75 tonnes per person per year less so enough new housing should be

Strategic Assessment of Risk were of Polish origin. than the UK average and is due to delivered over the plan period de- relatively low levels of emission from spite the current downturn. Climate Change industrial and commercial sources. In 2007/08 Braintree District Council had 421 households ap- The Braintree District contains a Crime and Disorder proach it as homeless and a duty great deal of high quality landscape, was accepted by the Council to green urban spaces, over 3,000 Essex has a crime rate of 46 per assist 283 of those cases. listed buildings and 39 conservation 1,000 people. This is higher than the areas. This local environmental qual- rate in the Braintree District which is Road Safety ity contributes much to the overall 37 per 1,000 population. Both are character of this part of Essex and significantly lower than the England The District sits astride the two to the region as a whole. and Wales average of 61 per 1,000 strategic roads of the A120 and The ecological footprint is a use- population during 2006/07. A12. The A120 has recently been ful way of measuring a popula- The number of people who are upgraded from Braintree to the M11

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 but the Braintree-Marks Tey stretch modern technology and the diversi- The expansion of the airport po- remains unimproved, and proposals fication of farms and older industrial tentially raises the threat of terrorism 137 to improve this section have recently sites. at these targets and means addi- been dropped by the Government. The Vision for the Braintree District tional resources may be required to Galleys Corner Roundabout (by for the next 20 years is to: effectively respond to and manage Macdonalds) at Braintree is a partic- ‘Improve, promote and support these incidents. We should continue ular local bottleneck where conges- the well-being of people and com- to pursue and develop our CBRNE tion regularly occurs. The A12 has a munities in the Braintree District – capability without over- reliance of significant impact on Witham, Hat- ensuring that local needs are met other Services. field Peverel and Kelvedon; however and are balanced against our duty to On a strategic level, the airport only local improvements between protect the District’s special environ- has a category 8 status and has Witham and Hatfield Peverel, rather mental qualities – now and for future approximately 216,000 air traffic than full scale upgrading, are pro- generations’ movements a year. It has the long- posed during the plan period. est commercial runway in the coun- The LSP Aims are: try (3,500m) and incorporates a ‘hi- Education and Skills jack’ facility on site. The buildings • To create a clean and green on the site include two terminals, an In Essex less than a quarter environment enclosed railway facility and a fuel (14.8%) of its residents have a level farm. In addition there are over 200 4 or above qualification – well be- • To achieve a prosperous local agents and support warehousing low the England average of 19.9%. economy and hangars. The Braintree District fairs worse than this with only 14.6% achieving • To enable everyone to enjoy a Towns Development this level. 28% of the working age safe and healthy lifestyle Community Commands population in the Braintree District The population of the Braintree have no qualifications. This com- Strong local partnership links are District is set to increase over the pares with the figure for Essex which being developed to support our aim next 5 years, and the percentage stands at 29.3%. of consistent and successful Com- of persons in the 65 and over age munity safety initiatives. group is predicted to increase by Economy 14%. In Essex 3,582 new houses Future Developments were built in 2002, the most being Overall, the District is relatively built in Braintree District. Some 8000 prosperous, with a low unemploy- Stansted Airport Development homes are also proposed for both ment rate. However many people The development of the airport the Dunmow area and Braintree. still choose to live in the District but will impact significantly upon both The proposed London / Cam- to travel elsewhere to work. There the capability of existing resources bridge housing developments along has been a shift away from manu- and the growth of the area generally. the M11 corridor will significantly in- facturing and agriculture and an in- Plans are currently being considered crease both populations and traffic crease in service industries with a to increase passenger movements movements both during construc- predominance of low-skilled, low- to 35 million by 2015, making it the tion and the resulting legacy, the paid jobs. The growth in outcom- busiest single runway airport in the knock on effect of this will mean muting exemplifies this trend. world. If a second runway is devel- addition services and employment oped passenger numbers could rise requirements. The rural economy to over 70 million a year, making it busier than Heathrow Airport today. Road Networks The rural economy is rapidly This growth will have a direct im- changing, as agricultural and man- pact on the transport network as U&BCC contains significant road ufacturing jobs have contracted. passengers will need to get to and networks including M11, A120 and Rural communities now rely more leave from the airport. Research by the A12. These are likely to expand heavily on commuting for most job Essex County Council has identified and develop to accommodate in- opportunities. Tourism and leisure that if the second runway is devel- creased traffic movements in the employment contributes to the rural oped, average car journeys to and future. economy but is subject to the sea- from Stansted could increase from Science and Research Industry sonal visitor trends. Small business 40,000 to 195,000 additional move- Uttlesford district has a significant centres have recently been devel- ments per day. It also highlighted and growing science park on the oped catering for businesses based that the average number of daily rail Cambridge border. on modern technology, and working journeys could increase from 12,600 from home is also becoming much to 40,000. The airport capacity is more common for the same rea- limited to a maximum throughput of sons. 25 million passengers per annum in Overall therefore, although the accordance with recommendations rural economy is changing rapidly made by the public inquiry in 1984 it may, to some extent, be becom- and confirmed by the Government ing more sustainable with the use of of the day.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 138 Uttlesford and Braintree Community Command

Uttlesford and Braintree Community Command - incident profile

The charts and graphs on the following pages set out the profile of incidents attended in the Uttlesford and Braintree Command.

• Primary fires haveincreased in the past two years.

• Deliberate primary and secondary fires haveincreased in the past year following a decrease in the previous year..

• Accidental dwelling fires haveincreased in the past two years.

• Road traffic collisions havedecreased over the past two years

• Other emergency special service calls decreased over the past two years

• Hoax calls have decreased over the past 2 years. Strategic Assessment of Risk Fig 90 Turnout time isochrones for stations in Uttlesford and Braintree

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 139

Fig Primary Fires in Uttlesford 91 and Braintree Community Command Community Commands

Fig Deliberate Primary Fires in 92 Uttlesford and Braintree Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 140

Fig Deliberate Secondary Fires 93 in Uttlesford and Braintree Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Fig Accidental Dwelling Fires in 94 Uttlesford and Braintree Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 141

Fig Road traffic collisions in 95 Uttlesford and Braintree Community Command Community Commands

Other Emergency Special Fig Services in Uttlesford and 96 Braintree Community Command

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 142

Fig Hoax Calls in Uttlesford 97 and Braintree Community Command Strategic Assessment of Risk

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 143 Community Commands

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 144

Conclusion Strategic Assessment of Risk

The Essex County Fire and responding swiftly and effectively forward thinking, well trained and Rescue Service of Today and into when they do occur. developed and capable of adapting the Future We aspire to achieve this by de- to changing circumstances. Being prepared for the opportuni- veloping close and lasting partner- The foundations for our aspira- ties and challenges of the future is ships which recognise the priorities tions will be sound financial manage- vital if the Service is to continue to of those who are contributing and ment, efficient use of resources, ef- meet community expectations. As with a joint focus on community im- fective organisational and workforce such it is important that there is an provement. development, modern information agreed and clear understanding of We aspire to have well trained, technology and strong community what we aspire to be in terms of an motivated and valued personnel with focused leadership. We recognise excellent Fire and Rescue Service. the best equipment and appliances the legal and moral responsibility to We aspire to be a Service that we are able to provide, with access identify ways to use our resources in clearly understands its role within to the information and knowledge the most flexible and efficient way the community and in the right locations needed to Many elements of these aspira- We aspire to be a Service that deliver the best service. tions are already in place, our key to works with a wide range of part- We aspire to be a Service that is success is to ensure their develop- ners and stakeholders to drive down supported by people, processes ment and adaptability continues. fires and other emergencies, but and systems that are responsive,

Investment in new equipment

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 145

Sources Sources

Annex 1 Community Wheels Project Allocations to Overseas Nationals http;//www.drivingcasulatiesdown. 2005 Climate Change in the East of orgDVLA http://www.dwp.gov.uk/media- England http://www.dvla.gov.uk/ centre/pressreleases/2007/jul/ Fire Advice centre ifd240707nino.pdf Essex Resilience Forum Community http://www.firesafe.org.uk/html/ BBC Born Abroad Project Risk Register premises/arsonsch.htm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/ http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro- spl/hi/uk/05/born_abroad/html/ sites/essex_resilience/crr.htm Diversity overview.stm Essex Trends Office of National Statistics http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ Essex Trends http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ ecc/ECCWebsite/dis/gui.jsp?chann http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ elOid=85856&guideOid=96 ecc/ECCWebsite/dis/gui.jsp?chann Older People in Essex 936 elOid=85856&guideOid=96936 Environment Agency Essex Resilience Forum Community Essex Trends http://www.environment-agency. Risk Register http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ gov.uk/ http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro- ecc/ECCWebsite/dis/gui.jsp?chann Effects of Climate Change on Fire & sites/essex_resilience/crr.htm elOid=85856&guideOid=96 Rescue Services in the UK Rees & Parsons 2006 936 http://www.yhub.org.uk/resources/ http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/events/ Essex Resilience Forum Community Climate%20Change%20Micro%20 segint/workshops/documents/ Risk Register Site/FireandRescueServi PhilReesEthnicPopulationProjectio http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro- cesintheUK.pdf nsCCSRWorkshop.pdf sites/essex_resilience/crr.htm National Statistics 2001 Census Office of National Statistics Flooding http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cen- http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ sus2001/census2001.asp http://www.defra.gov.uk/ 2005 International Passager Survey County Development & transport news/2008/080625a.htm http://www.statisticsgov.uk/statbase/ Infrastructure Product.asp?vlnk=8168&More=N Demographics of Essex UK Border Agency Accession Moni- Department for Transport toring Report 2005 http://www.dft.gov.uk Transport Research Laboratory http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/ Essex Trends Cohort Study sitecontent/documents/aboutus/re- http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/road- ports/accession_monitoring_report/ ecc/ECCWebsite/dis/gui.jsp?chann safety/research/relatednovicedrivers Department of Work & Pensions elOid=85856&guideOid=96 safetyno02?page=7 National Insurance Number (NINo) 936

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Essex Resilience Forum Community Exercise Osiris II (Bank Under- sites/essex_resilience/ 146 Risk Register ground Station) UK Resilience http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro- http://www.ukresilience.info/prepar- http://www.ukresilience.info/ sites/essex_resilience/crr.htm edness/exercises/londoncasestud- Civil Contingences Act 2004 Stansted Airport White Paper ies/osiris.aspx http://www.opsi.gov.uk/Acts/ http://www.dft.gov.uk/consulta- June 2002 article Sulaiman Abu acts2004/ukpga_20040036_en_1 tions/aboutria/ria/fullriaofstans- Gaith of Al Qaida Health & Safety Act 1974 tedairportatml5527 http://www.mi5.gov.uk/output/ http://www.hse.gov.uk/legislation/ BAA Stansted Airport Page27.html hswa.htm http://www.stanstedairport.com/ MI5 IPDS CLG Case Study London Southend http://www.mi5.gov.uk http://www.ipds.co.uk/efdm/ Airport http://www.communities.gov.uk/ The Economy Future Constraints thamesgateway/overview/southes- sex/southend/airport/ Essex Trends Fire Brigades Union Southend Airport http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ http://www.fbu.org.uk/ http://www.southendairport.com/ ecc/ECCWebsite/dis/gui.jsp?chann AssetCo 92 elOid=85856&guideOid=96 http://www.assetco.com/default. Essex County Council 936 aspx?CATID=9 http://www.essex.gov.uk/ Essex Resilience Forum Community Civil Contingences Act 2004 Now were moving freely Essex Risk Register http://www.opsi.gov.uk/Acts/ County Council http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro- acts2004/ukpga_20040036_ http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ sites/essex_resilience/crr.htm en_193 ecc/ECCWebsite/content/binaries/ The Horse Trust

Strategic Assessment of Risk documents/EssexRoadPass Joseph Rowntree Foundation Fire & Resilience New Dimensions engerTransportStrategyChap- http://www.jrf.org.uk/ http://www.communities.gov.uk/ ters1-2.pdf Poverty, Wealth and Place in Britain fire/resilienceresponse/newdimen- East of England spatial Strategy 1968-2005 Office of National Sta- sionequipping/ http://www.eera.gov.uk/category. tistics Regional Fire control asp?cat=452 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ http://www.communities.gov.uk/ London 2012 Olympics London Chambers of Commerce fire/resilienceresponse/firecontrol/ http://www.london2012.com/ http://www.londonchamber.co.uk/ FireLink Fire & Resilience New Dimensions Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2004 http://www.frsonline.fire.gov.uk/ http://www.communities.gov.uk/ ODPM resilience/listcat/41 fire/resilienceresponse/newdimen- http://www.neighbourhood.gov.uk/ The Part Time workers (Preven- sionequipping/ page.asp?id=1057 tion of Less Favourable Treatment) London Resilience Team Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004 Regulations 2000 Fire & Resilience New Dimensions http://www.opsi.gov.uk/Acts/ http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/ http://www.communities.gov.uk/ acts2004/ukpga_20040021_en_1 si2000/20001551.htm fire/resilienceresponse/newdimen- Small Business Statistics, Stock of Local Sustainable Community sionequipping/ Vat Registered Businesses 2005 Programs Brake Road Safety Charity http://www.bytestart.co.uk/content/ http://www.communities.gov.uk/ http://www.brake.org.uk/ taxlegal/9_17/vat-registration-statis- communities/sustainablecommuni- The Royal Society for the Preven- tics-2005.shtml ties/publicationsaboutsustain tion of Accidents http://www.cbi.org.uk able/keynoteaddresses/donaldj- http://www.rospa.com/ Essex Confederation of British Industries johnsons/ Issues Jan 2009- Strategic County- 2007 Comprehensive Spending wide Economic & Housing Issues Operational Service Delivery Review http://www.hmtreasury. The Changing Face of Technology Rising to the challenge- Improving gov.uk/spending_review/spend_ Fire Service Efficiency csr07/spend_csr07_index.cfm Office of National Statistics Audit Commission – December Local Government Finance Settle- http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ 2008 ment 2008/2009 http://servicenet/Documents/Ris- http://www.local.communities.gov. Terrorism ing_to_the_challenge_Full_Draft.pdf uk/finance/08 09/grant.htm Essex Resilience Forum Community MI5 BBC Al-Queda condemn the Rush- Risk Register http://www.mi5.gov.uk/output/ die Honour http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro- threat-levels.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ sites/essex_resilience/crr.htm middle_east/6289110.stm Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004 Annex 2 Fire & Resilience New Dimensions http://www.opsi.gov.uk/Acts/ http://www.communities.gov.uk/ acts2004/ukpga_20040021_en_1 Essex County Fire & Rescue fire/resilienceresponse/newdimen- Essex Résilience Forum Service Fire Stations sionequipping/ http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/micro-

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 E10 Colchester E11 Dovercourt 147 E12 Clacton E17 Manningtree E18 Frinton E19 Weeley E20 Brightlingsea E21 Wivenhoe E22 West Mersea E23 Tiptree E24 Coggeshall E25 Witham E30 Southend E31 Leigh E32 South Woodham E33 Great Baddow E34 Chelmsford E35 Rayleigh Weir E42 Shoeburyness

E43 Burnham Sources E44 Tillingham E45 Tollesbury E46 Maldon E47 Hawkwell E49 Rochford W50 Grays W51 Brentwood W52 Basildon W54 Canvey Island W55 Orsett W66 Corringham W67 Ingatestone W68 Billericay W69 Wickford W70 Harlow W71 Ongar W72 Loughton W73 Waltham Abby W78 Braintree W79 Wethersfield W80 Sible Hedingham W81 Halstead W82 Old Harlow W83 Stansted W84 Newport W85 Saffron Walden W86 Thaxted W87 Dunmow W88 Leaden Roding W89 Epping

Annex 3

Essex Fire and Rescue Service Workplace Fire Safety Departments KP, B&CP, C&M, C&T, H&E, S&R, T&B, U&B.

Strategic Assessment of Risk 2010/11 Strategic Assessment of Risk

2010 – 2011