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Evaluation of Ground-Motion Modeling Techniques for Use In Evaluation of Ground-Motion Modeling Techniques for Use in Global ShakeMap—A Critique of Instrumental Ground-Motion Prediction Equations, Peak Ground Motion to Macroseismic Intensity Conversions, and Macroseismic Intensity Predictions in Different Tectonic Settings By Trevor I. Allen and David J. Wald Open-File Report 2009–1047 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 2009 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Suggested citation: Allen, T.I., and Wald, D.J., 2009, Evaluation of ground-motion modeling techniques for use in Global ShakeMap—A critique of instrumental ground-motion prediction equations, peak ground motion to macroseismic intensity conversions, and macroseismic intensity predictions in different tectonic settings: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009–1047, 114 p. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. ii Contents Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Ground-Motion Datasets................................................................................................................................... 3 Instrumental Strong Motion........................................................................................................................... 4 Macroseismic Intensity.................................................................................................................................. 6 Earthquake Source Parameters and Distance Metrics ..................................................................................... 7 Instrumental Ground-Motion Predictions .......................................................................................................... 8 Shallow Crustal Relations ............................................................................................................................. 8 Subduction-Zone Relations......................................................................................................................... 11 Stable Continental Regions......................................................................................................................... 14 Peak Ground-Motion-to-Intensity Relations .................................................................................................... 16 Active Shallow Crust ................................................................................................................................... 17 Subduction Zones ....................................................................................................................................... 20 Macroseismic Intensity Prediction Equations.................................................................................................. 21 Active Shallow Crust ................................................................................................................................... 22 Subduction Zones ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Stable Continent ......................................................................................................................................... 24 Discussion and Application for Global ShakeMap .......................................................................................... 25 Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................................... 29 References Cited............................................................................................................................................ 29 Figures............................................................................................................................................................ 39 Appendix 1 – Active Crustal Instrumental Data............................................................................................... 60 Appendix 2 – Subduction Zone Instrumental Data.......................................................................................... 70 Appendix 3 – Stable Continent Instrumental Data .......................................................................................... 76 Appendix 4 – Active Crustal Macroseismic Data ............................................................................................ 77 Appendix 5 – Subduction Zone Macroseismic Data ....................................................................................... 81 Appendix 6 – Stable Continent Macroseismic Data........................................................................................ 83 Appendix 7 – Active Crustal GMPE Magnitude Dependence for PGA............................................................ 85 Appendix 8 – Active Crustal GMPE Magnitude Dependence for PGV............................................................ 91 Appendix 9 – Magnitude Dependence of the Abrahamson and Silva (2008) GMPE ...................................... 97 iii Appendix 10 – Magnitude Dependence of the Idriss (2008) GMPE................................................................ 99 Appendix 11 – Magnitude Dependence of the Cua and Heaton GMPE........................................................ 101 Appendix 12 – Subduction Zone GMPE Magnitude Dependence for PGA................................................... 103 Appendix 13 – Subduction Zone GMPE Magnitude Dependence for PGV................................................... 109 iv Figures Figure 1. Magnitude-distance distribution of global PGA dataset gathered for the Atlas of ShakeMaps.... 39 Figure 2. Residuals for the active crustal GMPEs against the global PGA dataset.................................... 40 Figure 3. Residuals for the active crustal GMPEs against the global PGV dataset.................................... 41 Figure 4. Residuals for the active crustal GMPEs against the California and Nevada PGA dataset.......... 42 Figure 5. Residuals for the active crustal GMPEs against the California and Nevada PGV dataset.......... 43 Figure 6. Residuals for the Boore and Atkinson (2008) active crustal GMPE against the global PGA dataset....................................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 7. Residuals for the subduction-zone GMPEs against the global PGA dataset .............................. 45 Figure 8. Residuals for the subduction-zone GMPEs against the global PGV dataset using spectral acceleration at 1.0 second as a proxy......................................................................................... 46 Figure 9. Residuals for the subduction-zone GMPEs against the global PGV dataset using spectral acceleration at 0.5 second as a proxy......................................................................................... 47 Figure 10. Amplitude-distance comparisons for the candidate subduction-zone GMPEs ............................ 48 Figure 11. Residuals for the stable continent GMPEs against the global PGA dataset................................ 49 Figure 12. Residuals for the stable continent GMPEs against the global PGV dataset................................ 50 Figure 13. Residuals for the active crustal GMPEs against the global stable continental region PGA dataset....................................................................................................................................... 51 Figure 14. Residuals for the active crustal GMPEs against the global stable continental region PGV dataset....................................................................................................................................... 52 Figure 15. Residuals for the peak ground-motion-to-intensity conversions for active crustal regions .......... 53 Figure 16. Residuals for the peak ground-motion-to-intensity conversions for global active crustal regions using the Wald and others (1999a) relations............................................................................... 54 v Figure 17. Residuals for the peak ground-motion-to-intensity conversions for California and Nevada using the Wald and others (1999a) relations ........................................................................................ 55 Figure 18. Residuals for the peak ground-motion-to-intensity conversions for global subduction zones ..... 56 Figure 19. Residuals for macroseismic intensity prediction equations against global active crust intensity data............................................................................................................................................. 57 Figure 20. Residuals for macroseismic intensity prediction equations against global subduction-zone
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