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Integrating Bicycle Option in Mode Choice Models Through Latent Variables

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UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIEROS DE CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS INTEGRATING BICYCLE OPTION IN MODE CHOICE MODELS THROUGH LATENT VARIABLES DOCTORAL THESIS BEGOÑA MUÑOZ LÓPEZ Ingeniera de Caminos, Canales y Puertos Máster Universitario en Sistemas de Ingeniería Civil Madrid, 2016 DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERÍA CIVIL: TRANSPORTE Y TERRITORIO ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIEROS DE CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS DOCTORAL THESIS INTEGRATING BICYCLE OPTION IN MODE CHOICE MODELS THROUGH LATENT VARIABLES BEGOÑA MUÑOZ LÓPEZ Ingeniera de Caminos, Canales y Puertos Máster Universitario en Sistemas de Ingeniería Civil Directors: Andrés Monzón de Cáceres Dr. Ingeniero de Caminos, Canales y Puertos Ricardo Álvarez Daziano Dr. Economista Madrid, 2016 Tribunal nombrado por el Mgfco. y Excmo. Sr. Rector de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, el día ___ de _______________ de 2016. Presidente: _____________________________________________ Vocal: _____________________________________________ Vocal: _____________________________________________ Vocal: _____________________________________________ Secretario: _____________________________________________ Suplente: _____________________________________________ Suplente: _____________________________________________ Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la Tesis el día _____ de __________ de 2016 en la E.T.S. de Ingenieros de Canales, Caminos y Puertos de la U.P.M. Acuerda otorgarle la calificación de: ___________________________________________________ Madrid, ___ de _________________de 2016. EL PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES EL SECRETARIO ABSTRACT Bicycle use can contribute to alleviate problems such as congestion and environmental nuisance in urban areas. In order to develop effective cycling policies it is essential to understand the key factors influencing bicycle use for urban mobility. The special characteristics of the bicycle as a transport mode make it difficult to explain utilitarian bicycling with the traditional explanatory factors for motorised demand. Additional psychological variables are required that take into consideration the subjective value attached to bicycle use. These psychological factors can be quantitatively modelled as latent variables and require special analysis techniques. Therefore, an adequate study of bicycle travel demand requires considering a comprehensive overview of variables and using the right tools. This doctoral thesis provides knowledge and tools for the proper incorporation of the bicycle as an option in travel demand models. A comprehensive survey of the modelling literature on the choice of the bicycle for utilitarian purposes summarises and assesses the evolution of the explanatory variables and methodologies used. Considering the main role of latent variables to explain bicycle choice identified in the literature review, two types of methodologies were developed to contribute to this line of research. First, the relationship between psychological factors and bicycle use –for the special case of commuting trips– is explored throughout a sequential modelling framework in two urban contexts in Spain: Madrid and Vitoria-Gasteiz. Second, an integrated choice and latent variable model with simultaneous estimation investigates the effect of several bicycle latent variables on mode choice behaviour in Vitoria-Gasteiz (Spain). This new integrated model is used to test several potential transport measures, and particularly soft measures related to bicycle experience that cannot be tested with traditional discrete choice models. Based on the literature review, a set of questions is proposed as a uniform measurement scale to identify attitudes toward bicycling and recommendations for future research are also presented. Moreover, by applying the proposed methodologies, several latent variables have been identified which appear to play a higher or lower role depending on the cycling context conditions. A set of customised transport policy initiatives is recommended in the light of the research findings. RESUMEN El uso de la bicicleta puede contribuir a aliviar problemas de congestión y medioambientales en entornos urbanos. Para desarrollar políticas ciclistas efectivas es esencial entender los factores clave que influyen en el uso de la bicicleta para movilidad urbana. Las características especiales de la bicicleta como modo de transporte hacen difícil explicar su uso con los factores explicativos tradicionales para la demanda motorizada. Variables psicológicas adicionales que tengan en cuenta el valor subjetivo asociado al uso de la bicicleta son necesarias. Estos factores psicológicos pueden modelarse cuantitativamente como variables latentes y requieren técnicas de análisis especiales. Por ello, un adecuado estudio de la demanda de viajes en bicicleta requiere considerar un amplio espectro de variables y del uso de las herramientas adecuadas. Esta tesis doctoral proporciona conocimientos y herramientas para la adecuada incorporación de la bicicleta como una alternativa en los modelos de demanda de viajes. Una amplia encuesta sobre la literatura de modelización de la elección de la bicicleta como modo de transporte resume y evalúa la evolución de las variables explicativas y de las metodologías usadas. Teniendo en cuenta el papel principal de las variables latentes a la hora de explicar la elección de la bicicleta, identificada en la revisión literaria, se han desarrollado dos tipos de metodologías para contribuir a esta línea de investigación. En primer lugar, la relación entre factores psicológicos y uso de la bicicleta (para el caso especial de los viajes al trabajo/estudio) es explorada a través de un marco de modelización secuencial, en dos contextos urbanos españoles: Madrid y Vitoria-Gasteiz. En segundo lugar, un modelo integrado de elección y variables latentes con estimación simultánea investiga el efecto de varias variables latentes de la bicicleta en la elección de modo en Vitoria-Gasteiz (España). Este nuevo modelo integrado es usado para testar varias medidas de transporte potenciales, y en especial medidas blandas relacionadas con la experiencia ciclista que no pueden ser testadas con modelos tradicionales de elección discreta. En base a la revisión literaria, se propone una serie de preguntas como escala uniforme de medida para identificar actitudes hacia el uso de la bicicleta, y se presentan recomendaciones para futuras investigaciones. Además, de la aplicación de las metodologías propuestas se identifican varias variables latentes, las cuales juegan un papel mayor o menor dependiendo de las condiciones ciclistas del contexto. Una serie de iniciativas sobre políticas de transporte a medida es recomendada a la vista de los resultados obtenidos. Table of contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................- 1 - 1.1 Background on bicycle use for urban mobility ..................................................... - 1 - 1.2 Thesis objectives ................................................................................................... - 6 - 1.3 Study areas ............................................................................................................ - 8 - 1.3.1 Madrid ....................................................................................................................... - 8 - 1.3.2 Vitoria-Gasteiz ........................................................................................................... - 9 - 1.4 Research methodology ....................................................................................... - 11 - 1.4.1 Methodologies of analysis and modelling............................................................... - 12 - 1.4.2 Methodologies of data collection ........................................................................... - 14 - 1.5 Thesis outline ...................................................................................................... - 22 - 1.6 References .......................................................................................................... - 23 - 2 Research into bicycle latent variables ................................................ - 29 - I. The increasing role of latent variables in modelling bicycle mode choice ........... - 31 - 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ - 31 - 2.2 Bicycle mode choice studies: comparative analysis ........................................... - 33 - 2.2.1 Explanatory variables .............................................................................................. - 33 - 2.2.2 Modelling issues ...................................................................................................... - 35 - 2.3 Stages in the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle mode choice studies - 39 - 2.4 Conclusions and identification of research gaps ................................................ - 43 - 2.4.1 Towards a uniform attitudinal scale of bicycling demand ...................................... - 43 - 2.4.2 Further developments ............................................................................................. - 45 - 2.5 References .......................................................................................................... - 46 - 2.6 Appendix 1. Summary of significant variables in bicycle mode choice models . - 52 - 2.7 Appendix 2. Studies: selected characteristics – explanatory variables .............. -
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