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Q1 2021 TEMPLATE.Xlsm Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2021 including the impact of COVID-19 on the local economy Today's Market… Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $300,000 20% $250,000 15% $200,000 10% $150,000 5% $100,000 0% $50,000 $0 -5% 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Local Price Trends Price Activity Hartford U.S. Local Trend Current Median Home Price (2021 Q1) $275,600 $313,533 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2021 Q1) 18.5% 15.1% Prices continue to grow relative to last year 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2021 Q1) 24.4% 28.6% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $54,000 $69,733 Gains in the last 3 years have extended the 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $66,300 $122,533 trend of positive price growth after the recession 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $73,600 $155,200 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Hartford U.S. Conforming Loan Limit** $510,400 $765,600 Most buyers in this market have access to FHA Loan Limit $353,050 $765,600 government-backed financing Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 54% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made on January 1st 2020. Local NAR Leadership The Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford market is part of region 1 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The 2021 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 1 is Donna Cusson. Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $120,000 $100,000 $95,403 $80,000 $60,000 $47,145 $40,000 $20,000 $0 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2018 Q1 2020 Q1 Total Equity Gained** through 2021 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity Hartford U.S. Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $47,145 $45,806 3-year (12-quarter)* $64,643 $81,443 Price appreciation and principle payments 5-year (20-quarter)* $83,287 $117,278 in the last 3 years have boosted total equity 7-year (28 quarters)* $91,558 $145,583 growth since the recession 9-year (36 quarters)* $108,251 $182,361 *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity Drivers of Local Supply and Demand… Local Economic Outlook Hartford U.S. Not 12-month Job Change (May) 40,900 Comparable Employment growth has eased, but remains Not positive 12-month Job Change (Apr) 48,900 Comparable Not 36-month Job Change (May) -37,300 Hartford's unemployment rate lags the Comparable national average, but has improved relative Current Unemployment Rate (May) 6.1% 5.8% to the same period last year Year-ago Unemployment Rate 11.1% 13.3% Local employment growth is strong 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 8.0% -4.0% compared to other markets Share of Total Employment by Industry Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford Area U.S. Natural Resourc 3.3%Natural 18.3 Natural R5.6% Natural Resources/ Construction #N/A #N/AMining/Con #N/A #N/A Resources/M ining/Constru 8.4% struct Government #N/AGovernment #N/A ConstruOtherc 8.4% ct 3.3% Manufacturi 15.1% Manufacturin 16.8% Services 5.6% Manufacturing 9.9% 54.4ng Manufac 1.9% g 9.9% 3.9% 1.9% Other Leisure & Trade/Transporta 16.1% 88.1 Trade/Tr 14.3% Services Trade/Trans Hospitality 10.1% Information3.8% 1.6% 8.5portation/Uti Informa1.9% Trade/Transp Leisure & lities ortation/Utilit FinancialHospitality Activ 9.6% 52.716.1% Financia14.3% ies 6.8% 14.3% Prof. & Busine 12.8% 69.9 Information Professi14.3% 1.6% Educ. & Healt 19.3% 105.6 EducationalEducatio 16.2% & Health Financial Information Educ. & Financial Leisure & Hos 6.8% 37.2 ServicesLeisure 10.1% Activities 1.9% Health Activities Other Services 3.8% 20.7 16.2%Other S 3.9% 14.3% Services Prof. & 9.6% Government19.3% 16.8%Business 92.1 96.7% Governm15.1%Professional 97.4% Services & Business #N/A #N/A 12.8% #N/A #N/AServices #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 14.3% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford Area (May - 2021) Goods Producing NA Information -500 Natural Resources/Mining/Construction 1,500 Financial Activities -1,900 Natural Resources and Mining NA Prof. & Business Services 2,200 Construction NA Educ. & Health Services 7,500 Manufacturing -700 Leisure & Hospitality 18,600 Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services 4,600 Trade/Transportation/Utilities 15,900 Government 1,700 State Economic Activity Index Connecticut U.S. 9.3% 7.7% The economy of Connecticut has outpaced 12-month change (2021 - May) the rest of the nation and improved -6.5% 1.8% modestly from last month's 0.93% change 36-month change (2021 - May) New Housing Construction Local Fundamentals Hartford U.S. 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through The current level of construction is 20.9% 977 not comparable May 2021 above the long-term average Production above trend for an extended 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit 808 not comparable period of time could cause prices to Building Permits moderate as inventory is built up. Construction is on the rise relative to last Single-Family Housing Permits (May 2021) 30.1% 29.0% year, suggesting that the local inventory has 12-month sum vs. a year ago stabilized Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Hartford U.S. Ratio for 2020 7.8% 14.4% Historically strong, but weaker than the Ratio for 2021 Q1 7.8% 14.0% fourth quarter of 2020 Historical Average11.1% 18.0% More affordable than most markets Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 Median Home Price to Income Hartford U.S. Ratio for 2020 1.5 2.8 The price-to-income ratio rose, but is better Ratio for 2021 Q1 1.6 2.8 than the historic average Historical Average 1.7 2.7 Affordable compared to most markets Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280 6.0% 240 5.0% 200 4.0% 160 3.0% 120 2.0% 80 40 1.0% 0 0.0% Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) Mortgage rates kicked off 2021 with a new record low. Nevertheless, rates were trending upward for the rest of the first quarter as COVID-19 vaccine became available to more Americans and millions of people received stimulus payments. According to the mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.88 percent in Q1 2021 compared to 3.51 percent a year earlier. Thus, homebuyers have excellent purchasing power at these historically low mortgage rates. What to expect about mortgage rates in the upcoming quarters? Rates are more likely to rise than fall as inflation will pick up in the following months. NAR is forecasting the 30-year mortgage rate to average 3.1% for the second quarter of 2021. REALTOR® Price Expectations REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Source: NAR REALTOR® Price Expectations Connecticut U.S. REALTORS® expect weaker price growth 2021 - May 0.0% 1.8% in Connecticut than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. Their price expectations for the local market are more modest than a year Prior 12 months 2.5% 1.4% ago. Geographic Coverage for this Report The Hartford area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Hartford County, Middlesex County, and Tolland County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/bulletins_default/.
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