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Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2020 Including the Impact of COVID-19 on the Local Economy Today's Market…

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Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2020 Including the Impact of COVID-19 on the Local Economy Today's Market… Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2020 including the impact of COVID-19 on the local economy Today's Market… Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $700,000 50% $600,000 40% $500,000 30% $400,000 20% $300,000 10% $200,000 $100,000 0% $0 -10% 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Local Price Trends Price Activity Stamford U.S. Local Trend Current Median Home Price (2020 Q4) $578,100 $311,000 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2020 Q4) 39.0% 14.2% Prices continue to grow relative to last year 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2020 Q4) 34.8% 26.1% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* $149,300 $64,433 Gains in the last 3 years have extended the 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $134,800 $114,100 trend of positive price growth after the recession 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $184,800 $148,667 *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Stamford U.S. Conforming Loan Limit** $601,450 $765,600 Not all buyers have access to government- FHA Loan Limit $601,450 $765,600 backed financing in this market Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 96% not comparable Note: limits are current and include the changes made on January 1st 2020. Local NAR Leadership The Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk market is part of region 1 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The 2021 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 1 is Donna Cusson. Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $184,798 $169,113 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4 2015 Q4 2017 Q4 2019 Q4 Total Equity Gained** through 2020 Q4 from quarter in which home was of purchased Price Activity Stamford U.S. Local Trend 1-year (4-quarter) $169,113 $43,291 3-year (12-quarter)* $171,040 $76,934 Price appreciation and principle payments 5-year (20-quarter)* $196,877 $109,705 in the last 3 years have boosted total equity 7-year (28 quarters)* $188,692 $138,037 growth since the recession 9-year (36 quarters)* $251,535 $176,211 *Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity Drivers of Local Supply and Demand… Local Economic Outlook Stamford U.S. Not 12-month Job Change (Dec) -39,500 Comparable Emplyoment continues to decline and will Not weigh on demand in some areas 12-month Job Change (Nov) -37,800 Comparable Not 36-month Job Change (Dec) -41,000 Stamford's unemployment situation is worse Comparable than the national average and weighs on Current Unemployment Rate (Dec) 7.6% 6.7% confidence Year-ago Unemployment Rate 3.2% 3.6% Local employment growth is poor and 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -9.6% -5.8% needs to improve Share of Total Employment by Industry Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Area U.S. Natural Natural Resourc 3.3%Natural 12.1 Natural R5.5% Resources/M Resources/ ining/Constru #N/A #N/AMining/Con #N/A #N/A ct Construction struct Government #N/AGovernment #N/AManufacturi Construc 8.5% 5.5% 8.5% 3.3% Other 15.2% Manufacturin 11.1% ng Services ManufacturingOther 7.7% 28.7 Manufac 1.9% g 7.7% 3.8% Services Leisure & 1.9% Trade/Transporta 17.4% 64.7Hospitality Trade/Tr 14.4% 3.3%Leisure & Trade/Trans 8.9% InformationHospitality 3.2% 12portation/Uti Informa1.9% Trade/Transp 9.7% lities ortation/Utilit Financial Activ 9.5% 35.217.4% Financia14.4% ies 14.4% Prof. & Busine 16.1% 59.9 Professi14.4% Information Educational 3.2% Educ. &Educ. Heal t& 18.5% 68.8 & EducatiHealth o16.3% Financial Services Financial Information Leisure &Health Hos 9.7% 35.9 Leisure 8.9% Services Activities 16.3% Activities 1.9% Other Services 3.3% 12.4 Other S 3.8% 18.5% Prof. & 9.5% 14.4% Government 11.1%Business 41.2 96.7% Governm15.2%Professional 96.5% Services & Business #N/A #N/A 16.1% #N/A #N/AServices #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A14.4% 12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Area (Dec - 2020) Goods Producing NA Information -1,000 Natural Resources/Mining/Construction -1,300 Financial Activities -2,100 Natural Resources and Mining NA Prof. & Business Services -7,500 Construction NA Educ. & Health Services -6,200 Manufacturing 0 Leisure & Hospitality -6,300 Service Providing Excluding Government NA Other Services -5,200 Trade/Transportation/Utilities -4,000 Government -4,200 State Economic Activity Index Connecticut U.S. -8.6% -4.4% The economy of Connecticut is still in 12-month change (2020 - Dec) recession, but improved modestly from last -3.1% 1.0% month's -8.75% change 36-month change (2020 - Dec) New Housing Construction Local Fundamentals Stamford U.S. 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through The current level of construction is 5.1% 688 not comparable Dec 2020 below the long-term average Reduced construction will limit new supply 8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit 725 not comparable to the market, allowing demand to catch up Building Permits with inventory more quickly Construction is on the rise relative to last Single-Family Housing Permits (Dec 2020) 8.7% 14.5% year, suggesting that the local inventory has 12-month sum vs. a year ago stabilized Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Stamford U.S. Ratio for 2020 8.5% 14.4% Historically strong and an improvement Ratio for 2020 Q4 8.7% 13.7% over the third quarter of 2020 Historical Average13.0% 18.0% More affordable than most markets Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 Median Home Price to Income Stamford U.S. Ratio for 2020 1.7 2.8 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is Ratio for 2020 Q4 1.8 2.8 below the historical average Historical Average 2.0 2.7 Affordable compared to most markets Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280 6.0% 240 5.0% 200 4.0% 160 3.0% 120 2.0% 80 40 1.0% 0 0.0% 2015 Q4 Q2 2016 Q4 Q2 2017 Q4 Q2 2018 Q4 Q2 2019 Q4 Q2 2020 Q4 Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) In the fourth quarter of the year, the 30-year fixed rate hit an all-time low, as investors were skeptical about the recovery of the economy from the pandemic. According to the mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 2.76 percent in Q4 2020 from 3.70 percent a year earlier. However, mortgage rates are expected to rise in 2021. As COVID-19 vaccine becomes widely available and additional policy support is on track, the re-opening of businesses will likely put upward pressure to prices. Following the trend of the 10-year Treasury yield, mortgage rates will also increase, but only slightly. NAR is forecasting the 30-year mortgage rate to average 3.0% for the first half of 2021. REALTOR® Price Expectations REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Source: NAR REALTOR® Price Expectations Connecticut U.S. REALTORS® expect weaker price growth 2020 - Dec 0.0% 2.0% in Connecticut than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. Their price expectations for the local market remained at the same level as a Prior 12 months 0.0% 2.6% year ago. Geographic Coverage for this Report The Stamford area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Fairfield County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/bulletins_default/.
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