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Runoff Change in the Neman River Basin Vilnius, Minsk, 2012

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Runoff Change in the Neman River Basin Vilnius, Minsk, 2012 Project «River basin management and climate change adaptation in the Neman River basin » Runoff Change in the Neman River Basin Edvinas Stonevičius Vladimir Korneev Egidijus Rimkus Aliaksandr Pakhomau Vilnius, Minsk, 2012 Introduction There has been much evidence of climate change impact on river flow regime in the world (IPCC 2007) and in the Baltic Sea region (BACC... 2008). Investigation of long-term trends of river runoff is an important step in river basin management and climate change adaptation. The knowledge of how the rivers in Neman basin have reacted to the resent changes of climate may help to understand the changes which may happen in the future. The analysis of the historical runoff records allows estimating the river runoff sensitivity to climate variability and allows roughly judge about the ability to adapt to climate and runoff changes. This project is the first attempt to estimate the recent runoff changes in the whole transboundary Neman basin. Data and methods This study analyzes the changes of meteorological parameters in the Nemunas river basin in 1961-2010. Climatic database was created in the first stage of the investigation. Initial monthly data were taken from the archives of Lithuanian and Belarus Hydrometeorological Services. The data from 24 hydrological stations were used (Table 1). Table 1 Hydrological stations whose data were used in research Name of the Catchment area, Station Longtitude Latitude water body km2 Neman Stolbtsy 26° 42' 56" E 53° 28' 43" N 3070 Neman Mosty 24° 32' 10" E 53° 24' 11" N 25600 Neman Grodno 23° 48' 23" E 53° 40' 43" N 33600 Isloch River Borovikovshina 26° 44' 16" E 53° 57' 26" N 624 Gavya River Lubiniata 25° 38' 40" E 53° 59' 26" N 920 Schara River Slonim 25° 19' 37" E 53° 04' 56" N 4860 Svisloch River Sukhaya Dolina 24° 01' 33" E 53° 28' 04" N 1720 Vilija River Steshytsy 27° 23' 39" E 54° 33' 50" N 1200 Vilija River Mikhalishki 26° 09' 59" E 54° 48' 50" N 10300 Naroch River Naroch 26° 43' 33" E 54° 33' 24" N 1480 Oshmyanka 1480 River Bolshiye Yatsiny 26° 12' 57" E 54° 44' 27" N Dubysa Lyduvenai 23° 5' 14.1" E 55° 30' 23.1" N 1134 Jūra Taurage 22° 16' 45.0" E 55° 15' 4.0" N 1664 Merkys Puvociai 24° 18' 12.0" E 54° 7' 4.3" N 4300 Šešupė K. Naujamestis 22° 51' 49.2" E 54° 46' 37.5" N 3179 Minija Kartena 21° 28' 48.2" E 55° 54' 59.2" N 1230 Šventoji Anykščiai 25° 5' 52.7" E 55° 31' 29.9" N 3600 Šventoji Ukmerge 24° 46' 8.0" E 55° 14' 48.0" N 5440 Žeimena Pabrade 25° 46' 21.0" E 54° 59' 1.7" N 2580 Neman Druskininkai 23° 58' 48.7" E 54° 1' 9.4" N 37100 Neman Nemajūnai 24° 4' 26.3" E 54° 33' 14.8" N 42800 Neman Smalininkai 22° 35' 15.6" E 55° 4' 22.3" N 81200 Vilija Vilnius 25° 16' 36.5" E 54° 41' 31.1" N 15200 Vilija Jonava 24° 16' 54.9" E 55° 4' 10.2" N 24600 Changes of water discharge during the observation period were studied by splitting the 1961– 2010 year period into two parts 1961-1985 and 1986-2010. The difference of annual, monthly, maximum flood, minimum summer-autumn and winter discharges were calculated between 1961-1985 and 1986-2010. Mapping of obtained results was made in order to highlight regional differences of changes. Student's test was used to assess whether the differences between the two periods were statistically significant. The statistical significance level of 0.05 was chosen. Results Annual water runoff The tendencies off mean annual water runoff changes in 1961-2009 in different parts of the Neman basin differ. The positive changes are predominant in the northern part of the basin and the negative changes are more common in the southern part (Figure 1, Table 2). The annual water discharge change pattern correlates with the changes off annual precipitation (Rimkus et al., 2012), but the formation of runoff is a complicated process due to the different size, different land use and soil types of catchments. Therefore the runoff pattern has more complex structure then the precipitation. On the other hand, the annual runoff trends in 1961-2009 in many stations of Neman basin are not statistically significant. Only the annual negative runoff trend in Oshmyanka River exceeds the 5 % significance level according to (Student’s test). Figure 1 Annual water discharge changes (%) in 1961-2009 in Neman river basin. The largest slope of positive trend is in Šventoji river upstream, while the largest negative slope is in the nearby station of Vilnius (Vilija river) (Figure 2). The trends in these stations are different, but the correlation of annual runoff is good (r=0.69). Figure 2 Two cases of largest positive and negative anuall runoff trend slopes in 1961-2009 in Neman basin. Table 2 Changes of runoff parameters (%) in 1961-2009 in Neman river basin Maximum Minimum water Minimum Average water Name of the Catchment discharge water Station annual water discharges water body area, km2 during summer- discharge discharge during autumn during winter spring-flood Neman Stolbtsy 3070 -11.76 -9.56 3.72 -53.07 Neman Mosty 25600 -3.49 -2.16 2.19 -35.52 Neman Grodno 33600 -2.69 -4.01 16.90 -29.23 Isloch River Borovikovshina 624 4.40 26.33 40.90 -52.42 Gavya River Lubiniata 920 4.22 -8.62 -3.73 -37.36 Schara River Slonim 4860 -8.75 -3.74 -4.58 -39.81 Svisloch River Sukhaya Dolina 1720 -0.56 20.02 47.61 -42.48 Vilija River Steshytsy 1200 13.09 1.82 27.42 -33.46 Vilija River Mikhalishki 10300 -6.01 -6.76 -0.22 -38.63 Naroch River Naroch 1480 4.10 -2.05 36.57 -36.50 Oshmyanka River Bolshiye Yatsiny 1480 10.87 32.90 38.56 -25.31 Dubysa Lyduvenai 1134 8.06 8.15 48.99 -28.68 Jūra Taurage 1664 3.61 35.76 17.54 -5.24 Merkys Puvociai 4300 6.37 3.66 10.83 -20.19 Šešupė K. Naujamestis 3179 13.19 24.78 15.33 -3.78 Minija Kartena 1230 9.71 7.20 12.28 3.17 Šventoji Anykščiai 3600 2.72 13.00 19.36 -16.45 Šventoji Ukmerge 5440 13.52 29.65 30.55 -14.07 Žeimena Pabrade 2580 6.51 2.88 7.17 -10.37 Neman Druskininkai 37100 -2.68 -4.17 9.75 -29.61 Neman Nemajūnai 42800 -2.85 -3.87 17.71 -27.98 Neman Smalininkai 81200 1.18 8.22 15.69 -20.16 Vilija Vilnius 15200 -2.08 0.27 9.12 -34.62 Vilija Jonava 24600 4.34 2.75 0.36 -23.20 The same could be said about all rivers in Neman basin. The correlation of annual runoff data of all stations with data in the nearest to Nemunas river mouth Smalininkai hydrological station is strong. The correlation coefficient is higher than 0.60 in all cases except Svisloch river (Sukhaya Dolina). High correlation coefficient means that dry and wet years in all basin rivers are usually concurrent. Seasonal distribution Not only the magnitude of annual runoff changes over the time, the sasonal distribution off runoff changes as well. The larggest changes in 1961-2010 in Neman river runoff regime were in the January and February and in April (Figure 3 A, B, D). In the first two months of the calendar year the runoff has increased in all rivers of Neman Basin. This increase can be reletaed to the increaeas of precipitation amount in these months and due the increase in winter temperature (Rimkus et al., 2012). The higher winter temperature leads to more frequent thaws (Gečaitė and Rimkus, 2010) an to the change of the composition of precepitation. Liquid precipitation begins to prevail in winter. As a consequence the water content in snow cover in the end of winter has decreased in Neman River Basin. The changes in March are different in the southern and northern parts of Neman basin (Figure 3 C). March is transitional month between winter and spring. The increase of runoff in March in the northern part and decrease of runoff in southern part of Neman basin can be related to slightly different time of spring flood time. In the northern part the spring flood is usually later than in southern part. Due to shift of spring flood end date the runoff in May decreased in 1961-2009 in largest part of the Neman basin. The thinner snow cover and smaller amount of water in it at the end of winter may be the main reason why the runoff in April has decreased in all rivers in Neman basin (Figure 3 D). The magnitude of runoff changes in May were much smaler than in April, but the decrease of runoff is tipical for the largest part of the Neman basin (Figure 3 E). The exception is the basin part near the Baltic Sea where the runoff has slightly increased. In June (Figure 3 F) the runoff changes gradually shifts from positive in the north to negative in the south, but the magnitude of changes are relatively small. In July, August and September (Figure 3 G, H and I) the changes remain very small; however the runoff rise prevailed in these months in 1961-2009. In the end of the year the runoff decreased in south western part of Neman basin and increased in the north eastern part (Figure 3 J, K and L).
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