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What Works: Crime Reduction Systematic Review Series No WHAT WORKS: CRIME REDUCTION SYSTEMATIC REVIEW SERIES NO 9. A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ASSET-FOCUSSED INTERVENTIONS AGAINST ORGANISED CRIME Colin Atkinson1, Simon Mackenzie2, and Niall Hamiton-Smith3 Colin Atkinson1, Simon Mackenzie2, and Niall Hamilton-Smith3 1 Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, University of Glasgow / University of West of Scotland, UK 2 Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, University of Glasgow, UK / Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand 3 Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, University of Stirling, UK 1 Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, University of Glasgow, UK 2 Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, University of Glasgow, UK / Victoria University of Wellington, New April 2017 3 Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research, University of Stirling, U Corresponding Scottish Centre for Crime and Glasgow Scotland, UK 8LR ( +4 330 8257ail: Octo COPYRIGHT This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited. In addition there should be an indication if any changes were made to the original text and there should be no suggestion that the authors or any of their collaborators endorses you or your use. This review was prepared by the University of Glasgow and was co-funded by the College of Policing and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC); Grant title: 'University Consortium for Evidence-Based Crime Reduction'. Grant Ref: ES/L007223/1. CONTENTS ABSTRACT 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 BACKGROUND 9 OBJECTIVES OF THIS REVIEW 11 TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF ORGANISED CRIME 12 THREAT AND HARM IN THE CONTEXT OF ORGANISED CRIME 14 DESCRIPTION OF ASSET-FOCUSSED INTERVENTIONS 15 META-ANALYSIS, REALIST SYNTHESIS AND EMMIE 17 METHODS 19 RESULTS 24 EFFECTS 26 MECHANISMS / MEDIATORS 30 MODERATORS / CONTEXTS 37 IMPLEMENTATION 40 ECONOMIC COSTS/CONSEQUENCES 42 CONCLUDING REMARKS 49 REFERENCES 53 APPENDICES 66 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: EMMIE framework – adapted from Johnson et al (2015) Table 2: Contextual conditions favourable and unfavourable to asset-focussed interventions producing reductions in organised crime LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Flowchart of study selection A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ASSET-FOCUSSED INTERVENTIONS AGAINST ORGANISED CRIME ABSTRACT Organised crime is a pernicious problem in many contemporary societies. Asset-focussed interventions have been deployed with increasing frequency in a range of jurisdictions to tackle this problem; however, the effectiveness of such interventions in reducing organised crime remains unclear. This systematic review seeks to identify and interrogate the evidence base on asset-focussed interventions against organised crime, and in doing so address the question of the effectiveness of such interventions. The results presented in this review will show that the practical effectiveness of asset- focussed interventions remains unclear. There is a paucity of evidence from primary evaluations on which to provide an assessment of the outcomes of asset-focussed interventions. Despite this, there has been widespread adoption of such policies and practices, based on implicit assumptions about why and how they are expected to ‘work’. We use a systematic framework of analysis in this review to identify and examine the various theoretical rationales which support these quite widespread assumptions of effectiveness. These theoretical perspectives do not, in fact, always offer the kind of unequivocal support that advocates of asset-focussed interventions against organised crime would hope for. For example, deterrence through both the threat and reality of financial ‘punishment’ is a primary mechanism through which asset-focussed interventions are justified and expected to work, but its underlying principles have been subject to critique in this field, as in others. This review points not only to the gaps in the current evidence-base on asset-focussed interventions – such as any known effect size, whether the theoretical rationale for such approaches is supported by evidence, and the precise cost-effectiveness of deploying such tactics – but also to the areas in which knowledge has been generated: from the causal mechanism that is purported to underpin the approach, to the contextual and practical factors that support successful implementation. Overall, we highlight the lack of evidence in support of the effectiveness of asset-focussed interventions in reducing organised crime. This is not to say definitively that these interventions are ineffective in reducing organised crime, but rather to point out that in terms of the available evidence on cause and effect, it is not possible to identify whether they are or are not effective. The evidence base for judging the effectiveness of asset-focussed interventions is weak, but the moral imperative upon which such approaches rest remains attractive, defensible and popular in the current climate. Given this strong populist foundation, therefore, asset- focussed interventions are likely to remain a key tactic used by law enforcement and policing agencies against organised crime, irrespective of any firm foundation of evidence to suggest that they can be truly said to ‘work’. This area is therefore germane for future research in conjunction with policing and law enforcement agencies. 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Aims and objectives Asset-focussed interventions (AFIs) refer to a variety of measures that target the assets and/or financial resources gained from organised criminal activity and which may be intended for use in future crimes. AFIs seek to reduce the financial resources available to individuals involved in organised crime thereby reducing organised crime itself. AFIs include cash seizure, detention and forfeiture; asset confiscation; civil recovery of assets; recovering unpaid tax on criminal earnings that will not have been previously declared for tax purposes; and seizure and removal of property, including vehicles. This report is a systematic review of the evidence that AFIs are effective in reducing the threat or harm of organised crime. The standard approach of a systematic review, meta- analysis, was not able to be conducted here since after a wide literature search no studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria for evidence to be considered in this review. Unable to use meta-analytical procedures, we instead conducted a realist synthesis of the 104 studies that reported on the reduction of organised crime associated with the use of AFIs. A realist synthesis follows a systematic approach to identifying relevant research and focusses on identifying the causal mechanisms through which an intervention (here AFIs) is expected to work, and under which conditions. Following the EMMIE framework of systematic analysis, we searched for evidence and theory on: The ‘Effect’ of AFIs: what results do they obtain? The ‘Mechanism’ of AFIs: how do they work? The ‘Moderators’ for the effect of AFIs: in which contexts do they work best? The ‘Implementation’ of AFIs: how issues around implementation may affect results The ‘Economics’ of AFIs: the cost-benefit issue. The majority of the literature included in the realist synthesis focussed on specific European countries or Europe in general (68 studies, 35 of which focussed on the UK/England and Wales specifically). A further 25 studies focussed on non-European countries or a mixture of European and non-European countries including Australia, the US, South Africa, Hong Kong and Canada. Some were discussions at the international level or general think pieces. Findings What are the effects of AFIs? There is an absence of evidence on outcomes of AFIs, which would include measures like organised crime reduction, prevention, or the reduction in the harm caused by organised crime. It is possible that AFIs may reduce or prevent organised crime (e.g. through a measure like number of offences per year) or the harm organised crime causes (e.g. through diversion from more harmful into less harmful types of organised crime). We were unable, however, to find any research that produced reliable estimates of these types of ‘outcome’ effect. 7 How do AFIs work? Three mechanisms were found in the literature as the main propositions for how we might think AFIs would achieve a crime reduction effect. These are deterrence, disruption, and diminution. AFIs may achieve a deterrent effect if prospective criminals think they might have to surrender the profits of their criminal activity. AFIs may disrupt organised crime by depleting accumulated capital and forcing criminals to ‘start again’ with their enterprise-building activities. Where AFIs allow the state to reinvest recovered criminal finance in pro-social initiatives, this might be considered as diminishing the overall calculus of social harm caused by such crimes, although clearly this kind of calculation can be quite abstract compared to the real experiences of the victims of organised crime. In what contexts do AFIs work best? Contexts for moderating the effect of AFIs were not evaluated in the literature but we have been able to distil the main assumptions that have been made about when AFIs will be likely to work best. AFIs consider organised criminals to be profit-motivated, and risk- averse to the prospect of the removal of particular assets, so they will work
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