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Political Cleavages and Social Inequality in the Middle East: Turkey, Irak and Algeria 1990-2018

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Political Cleavages and Social Inequality in the Middle East: Turkey, Irak and Algeria 1990-2018 Political Cleavages and Social Inequality in the Middle East: Turkey, Irak and Algeria 1990-2018 Juliet-Nil Uraz Supervisor: Thomas Piketty Referee: Facundo Alvaredo August 24, 2020 Abstract Using four sources of opinion surveys conducted in the Middle East between 1990 and 2018, this paper documents the evolution of political cleavages in light of inequality dynamics in three country: Algeria (between 2002 and 2018), Iraq (between 2004 and 2018) and Turkey (between 1990 and 2018). Extending a comparative methodology developed for western democracies, I built homogeneous times-series on electoral behavior and created simple measures of inequality. I investigated whether one could relate the divides observed in voting patters, and especially the ethno-religious component, to social cleavages, putting into perspective survey findings with evidence gathered in social sciences. My findings suggest that similar socioeconomic determinants play a differentiated role on electoral behaviour depending on the historical and institutional context. However, the identity-based voting remains highly interconnected with social disparities and does not offer extensive explanatory power, except in the extreme case of sectarian political system, such as the one of Iraq. The growing popular discontent that took the form of massive abstention in recent elections in the Algerian and Iraqi settings further invite to pay specific attention to diverse mode of political participation going beyond the vote. JEL codes: N45, D31, D63, D72, O5 Keywords: Middle East and North Africa, Arab World, political economy, income inequality, electoral behavior, social cleavage, public opinion i ii To my parents and grandparents iii Figure 0.1: An illustration of education and cultural cleavages in the Middle East The erudite Hacivat (left) and the popular Karagöz (right) in the Ottoman shadow play iv Figure 0.2: Middle East and North Africa Source: M. Gasiorowski & S. Yom, 2018. The Government and Politics of the Middle East and North Africa, Routledge v Acknowledgements In the difficult and uncertain times that this work took shape, I am especially grateful to my supervisor, Thomas Piketty, for his strong encouragements and constant listening in any circumstances, and to Facundo Alvaredo, for having nicely accepted to be my referee. I would also like to deeply thank Amory Gethin, for his continuous support and generous help throughout this journey, Lydia Assouad, for her kind and useful advice, and the PSE pedagogical and administrative staff, for their openness and availability at all times. On a more personal note, many thanks to Thibault and his amazing ability to make geography understandable even to an economist, to Jenny, who so sweetly and unreservedly offered her tables generator master skills, to Seamus, for discussing titles and highly inspired quotes, to Emily, for her Middle East passion and reading recommendations, and broadly, to my whole joyful team of PPD survivors, for our vivid discussions over the last couple of years, their sweet feedbacks and careful proofreadings. To Louise and Eric, my extended Rosca, thanking words would be far from being enough. I will thus commit to not take sides in the coming heated foosball matches that are likely to enliven PSE for some time, despite the delightful betting opportunities at hand.1 Merry greetings to my ESRB-supporters and their cheering memes in times of a global pandemic, and to my coronamate David who kindly kept my feet on the local ground. My deepest gratitude goes necessarily to my unconditionally supporting and loving parents; Baba, whose insights and patience with his Frenchified büyük kız were fundamental to this work and Maman, who endured a summertime Wailing Wall with an equal sense of humor and care. Last but not least,I am definitely indebted (for life) to my own little fairy of the Middle East, the Djin of my heart, oui toi Péri, ma petite soeur chérie (and her devil twin incarnation in Pushka, obviously). With a grain of salt and an oriental smile, I may have to close this (quite exhaustive) list by waving at the malicious Kısmet. Who knows, he might be happily whistling from the Istanbulite streets of my childhood. 1World Cups are not included. vi Disclaimer Political Science literature has been designing a consequent set of models for trying to capture the determinants of voting choice, from Michigan voting models, spatial analysis, to the the subsequent declinations of the voting choice theory. Without denying the importance and the fruitfulness of such a modelling approach, this work suggests a slightly different path, reconnecting with a more descriptive and interdisciplinary collection of information. Why do we vote and for whom? What is the main driver of voting choice? Can we predict the ballot cast? And in particular, why did secular Turkish individuals suddenly start voting for Islamic parties? Is sectarian identity still the main driver of the Iraqi ballot? Why do Egyptians who prefer redistribution not vote left? Are Algerians getting tired of the party of the Independence? Instead of asking such puzzling interrogations that are likely to often get stuck into the “it depends” deadlock, one suggest to put survey data findings in perspective by using the existing literature from various disciplines, to multiply the angles so as to set the path for a deeper understanding. To start this exploratory journey of political cleavages and social inequality in the Middle East, the reader will have to accept to put out of his luggage his sophisticated econometrician toolkit for a moment, without getting too disappointed by unsatisfactory correlations. Better to be honest from the start, he will most likely not find definitive answers to his questions. Instead, the author hopes that any traveller who would accept to follow her along this journey will get frustrated enough to carry on, on his own. This work has been realized within the collective project "Political Cleavages and Inequality" carried by the World Inequality Lab, under the direction of Amory Gethin, Clara Martínnez-Toledano and Thomas Piketty. All errors are my own. Contents vii Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Inequality and political cleavages: a brief review 6 3 MENA specificity: an overview 9 3.1 Politics and party systems . .9 3.2 Social inequality dynamics: preliminary observations . 11 4 Data 16 4.1 Overview of Data Sources . 16 4.2 Harmonization in Practice: Challenges and decisions steps . 20 5 Methodology 25 5.1 Identifying social cleavages . 25 5.2 To harmonize or not to harmonize: the decile approach . 27 5.3 From political competition to political cleavages: the party classification challenge . 28 5.4 Weighting scheme . 30 6 Turkey 32 6.0.1 A multiparty system challenged by new players at the eve of the XXIst century 32 6.0.2 A new role for the religious cleavage in the secular Republic? . 36 6.0.3 The rise of an “inverted” class cleavages? . 39 6.0.4 The regional cleavages and the “Kurdish question” . 47 7 Iraq 51 7.0.1 A democratic transition shaped by ethno-religious sectarianism . 51 7.0.2 Social and spatial inequalities in Iraq . 54 7.0.3 The persistence of sectarian voting . 57 7.0.4 What place for the income gradient in a sectarian vote? . 59 7.0.5 An absence of cleavages beyond sectarian identity? . 63 7.0.6 A system in crisis? . 66 8 Algeria 69 8.0.1 Algeria’s transition to democracy: from post-colonial authoritarianism to an ‘electoral autocracy’ . 69 8.0.2 Socio-spatial disparities in Algeria and ethnic cleavages . 72 8.0.3 A renewed cross-class alliance in a two-party ruling . 77 8.0.4 The relevance of a generational cleavage . 80 8.0.5 A discredited electoral system? . 82 9 Conclusion 85 References 88 Appendix 95 A1 Harmonization rules . 95 A2 Overview of data available per MENA country - Author’s computation . 101 viii Contents A3 Iraq, Turkey and Algeria at a glance . 106 A4 The Egyptian case . 108 A Turkey Appendix 111 A1 Turkish Politics before 1946 . 111 A2 Additional figures supporting the country-section . 113 A2.1 A multiparty system challenged by new players . 113 A2.2 A new role for the religious cleavage in the secular Republic? . 114 A2.3 The rise of an “inverted” class cleavages? . 117 A2.4 Education divide . 121 A2.5 Gender vote gap . 124 A2.6 Generational cleavage . 125 A2.7 The regional cleavages and the “Kurdish question” . 127 A3 Electoral maps . 133 B Iraqi Appendix 140 A1 Iraqi political parties: landscape and classification . 140 A2 Additional figures supporting the country-section . 143 A2.1 A democratic transition shaped by ethno-religious sectarianism . 143 A2.2 Social and spatial inequalities in Iraq . 143 A2.3 The persistence of sectarian voting . 145 A2.4 What place for the income gradient in a sectarian vote? . 147 A2.5 An absence of cleavages beyond sectarian identity? . 149 A2.6 A system in crisis? . 155 C Algeria Appendix 162 A1 Additional figures supporting the country-section . 164 A1.1 Algeria’s transition to democracy: from post-colonial authoritarianism to an ‘electoral autocracy’ . 164 A1.2 Socio-spatial disparities in Algeria and ethnic cleavages . 170 A1.3 A renewed cross-class alliance in a two-party ruling . 174 A1.4 The relevance of a generational cleavage . 179 A1.5 A discredited electoral system? . 183 A1.6 Structure of the abstention . 184 A2 Structure of the vote for other Algerian parties . 187 List of Figures ix List of Figures 0.1 An illustration of education and cultural cleavages in the Middle East The erudite Hacivat (left) and the popular Karagöz (right) in the Ottoman shadow play ...... iii 0.2 Middle East and North Africa . iv 3.1 Evolution of personal remittances received by selected MENA countries (as a percent of GDP) between 1980 and 2019 .
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