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Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Market and Fund Update

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Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Market and Fund Update ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title title style style VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Market and fund update June 2016 ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title title style style VOF Overview • Launched 2003. Migrated from AIM to the LSE Main Board on 30th March 2016. A closed-end fund, domiciled in Guernsey. • High-conviction, multi-asset strategy. Focus on sectors that benefit from domestic consumption and infrastructure growth in Vietnam. • Net Assets USD756m or USD3.62/share (+10.9% FY2016 YTD), Market Cap USD582m (31 May 2016). VOF is one of the largest and most liquid Vietnam closed-end funds. • Discount to NAV currently 23% (31 May 2016). Ongoing share buyback programme has returned $242m1 to investors over the past 5 years. • Managed by an experienced, institutionalised team across asset classes including private equity, listed equities and real estate. • Fully independent, non-executive board with deep experience in Vietnam and other emerging markets. 1. As at 31 May 2016, VOF has spent USD242 million overall repurchasing 116 million shares which have been cancelled and total voting rights in the Company are now 208,646,258 2 ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title titleVOF style style portfolio management team Andy Ho, MBA Duong Vuong, CFA Chief Investment Officer and Managing Director Deputy Managing Director, Capital Markets • 8 years at VinaCapital, currently MD of VOF and Chief • 2 years at VinaCapital, currently responsible for VOF’s capital Investment Officer of VinaCapital. market and PIPE investments. • Former Director of Investments at Prudential Vietnam, • 20 years of experience including the last 9 years in Vietnam. management positions at Dell Ventures and Ernst & Young • Former Research Head at PXP Vietnam Asset Management, in both the US and Vietnam. Senior Investment Analyst at ADIA in Abu Dhabi and Banks • MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management, BS from the Analyst for Merrill Lynch in London. University of Colorado, USA Certified Public Accountant. • Supported by a director and investment manager accompanied by research team. Khanh Vu, M.Com Loan Minh Dang, MBA Investment Director Deputy Managing Director, Private Equity • 5 years at VinaCapital, currently investment director • 8 years at VinaCapital, responsible for private equity (PIPEs) and member of VOF’s investment committee. investments and sourcing. • Over 14 years of managerial experience in corporate • Former Audit Manager for KPMG Vietnam and on the finance, asset management, investment banking, and risk Management and Financial Accounting team at Unilever and compliance. Vietnam. • Previously at Macquarie Bank based in New York and • MBA from University of Hawaii, Vietnamese Certified Public Sydney. Prior to that, he was with Deloitte and Arthur Accountant and UK ACCA member. Andersen based in Sydney. • Supported by a director and two managers accompanied by • Masters degree from University of New South Wales, research team. Sydney. Supported by a 9-member research team, including CFA charter holders or MBA qualified 3 ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title title style style Why Vietnam ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title title style style Why Vietnam Vietnam’s growth is driven by rising domestic consumption and rapid infrastructure development. • Demographics 94 million people with an average age under 30 • High GDP growth One of the best performing emerging markets with 6.7% GDP growth (2015), 2016 expected to remain strong • Rising foreign investment FDI inflows continue to support job creation, domestic consumption, industrialisation and enhance exports • International trade Several free-trade agreements will bolster economic growth • Privatisations and market development Capital markets will continue to deepen and broaden through IPOs and large scale privatisations of SOE’s 5 ClickClick to to edit edit MasterVietnam Master title forecasttitle style style to be a top growth country Bloomberg GDP forecasts, 20161 Real GDP growth, supported by credit growth Real GDP Credit growth 8.0% India 7.4% Growth was Growth is now supported supported by by stable credit growth 50% Vietnam 6.7% excessive credit and strong economic fundamentals 7.0% Bangladesh 6.6% 40% China 6.5% 30% 6.0% SriLanka 6.4% 20% Kenya 6.1% 5.0% Panama 6.1% 10% Philippines 6.0% 4.0% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F Real GDP Growth Credit growth (%) 1. “Meet 2016's Worst Economic Performers” Bloomberg Source: IMF, ADB, General Statistics Office, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 6 IncreasingClickClick to to editglobal edit Master Master integration title title style throughstyle free-trade agreements Vietnam is the only country benefitting from several FTAs1 combining to cover 79.6% of the world’s GDP. RCEP2 TPP3 EUROPEAN ASEAN4 UNION CANADA INDONESIA VIETNAM INDIA AUSTRALIA CHILE MYANMAR LAOS SINGAPORE NEW ZEALAND CHINA MEXICO PHILIPINES THAILAND BRUNEI KOREAN JAPAN PERU CAMBODIA MALAYSIA USA 1. Free Trade Agreement 2. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 3. Trans-Pacific Partnership 4. ASEAN Economic Community 7 Source: McKinsey & Company, NCDT, World Bank, BSC, General Statistics Office of Vietnam ClickClick to to edit editA Master young,Master titleeducated title style style and inexpensive workforce The affluent middle-class will double to 21m Vietnam’s young, productive population has been people by 2030. Labour costs are among the a catalyst in attracting foreign direct investments lowest in the region. and driving growth. Average monthly wage by country Net foreign inflows (USDbn) In USD, 2014 12 $453 Vietnam labour costs half that of China resulting in $403 manufacturing jobs 10 Strong FDI inflows $369 moving to Vietnam supported by remittances from overseas diaspora and a positive trade 8 balance accounts for a healthy FX reserve $253 $249 6 $176 4 2 0 Malaysia China Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Kenya Philippines Vietnam Nigeria Sri Lanka Bangladesh Source: World Bank, General Statistics Office, Ministry of Agricultural & Rural Development, VinaCapital Research & Analysis Source: General Statistics Office, Ministry of Planning & Investment, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 8 ClickClick to to edit edit Master MasterMoving title title styleto style a high -value export economy Global companies are expanding their Well balanced export markets dominated by manufacturing bases in Vietnam EU and US Total amount Export value by market, 2015 invested USD11.3bn 50% of Samsung’s mobile 21% phones manufactured in 33% Europe USA China Vietnam 21% 5% Japan Korea Others USD1.5bn 70% of LG Vietnam’s products 9% 11% exported to over 35 countries Diverse export base with an increasing shift to high-tech USD1.0bn 80% of Intel’s chips made in products Vietnam Exports by product category (USD billion), 2015 Cellphones & Accessories 30.1 USD300m 80% of Canon’s laser printers Textiles & Garments 25.8 produced in Vietnam Commodities 25.1 Computers & Electronics 15.6 Footwear 13.4 Machine & Equipment 12.1 USD220m 39 production lines shifted Wood & Wooden Products 7.5 from Hungary, China and Vehicles 5.8 Mexico Crude oil 3.7 Others 22.7 Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam Customs, Ministry of Planning & Investment, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 9 ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title Overall,title style style improving macroeconomics FX reserves strengthening off positive trade flows Inflation remains stable thanks to low commodity prices USD billion YoY CPI MoM CPI 40 5 8 3 4 6 30 2 3 4 20 1 2 2 10 0 1 - 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 - (2) (1) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YoY CPI MoM CPI 2016F Gross Reserves (LHS) Months of Imports (RHS) VND remains one of the most stable currencies against the USD Non-performing loans are declining, but structural issues remain compared to regional peers Percentage of total outstanding loans 160% 6.0% 150% 5.0% 140% 4.0% 130% 120% 3.0% 110% 2.0% 100% 1.0% 90% 80% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Indonesian Rupiah Malaysian Ringgit Philippines Peso Thai Baht Vietnam Dong Source: General Statistics Office, State Bank of Vietnam, Vietnam Customs, Bloomberg, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 10 ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master title title style style Vietnam Stock Market ClickClick to to edit edit Master Master titleCapital title style style markets continue to improve Total market cap of USD62.5 billion1 across 2 exchanges and 689 listed companies. Foreign interest continues to accelerate on expectation of further privatisations and lifting of FOL. Last price Volume 1,600 10 Improved liquidity as market deepens and 9 1,400 progressive reform 8 1,200 7 Rapid influx of 1,000 “hot” money 6 800 5 4 Billions 600 3 400 2 200 1 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 VNIndex Volume - RHS VNIndex Last Price - LHS MSCI EM Last Price - LHS 1. Market cap of combined bourses, Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), as of 31 May 2016. VNIndex represents HOSE only. Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 12 ClickClick to to edit Liftingedit Master Master of foreign title title ownership style style limits has quickened pace Foreign ownership events in 2015 – 2016 June Decree 60 is released indicating foreign 2015 ownership restrictions will be reduced Government clarifies companies will set their Sep own limits1, Saigon Securities Co(SSI) is the first to remove their foreign ownership limit Both have taken steps to remove restricted business lines from their charter, VNM has recently removed its foreign ownership limit. Government indicates it’s intention to sell Oct stakes in several companies, which will need to increase their limits to extract full value Three companies have indicated they will seek Nov approval to allow 100% foreign ownership Has approved 100% May Almost a dozen companies have taken steps FOL, but yet to be 2016 towards increasing their foreign ownership 100% FOL implemented limits 1.
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