EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE DELHI THE HINDU 10 EDITORIAL THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2020 EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE The missing piece in India’s defence jigsaw puzzle The country needs a clearly articulated white paper on its defence needs which sets out its strategic concerns a deal for the National Advanced in Asia, then India’s political, stra­ prescribed areas. Surface to Air Missile System (NA­ tegic and military planners need If this view is espoused by a de­ SAMS­II), intended as part of a to come up with a different set of fence white paper then, despite Secrecy hurts multi­layered missile shield to pro­ alternatives. In recent years, un­ the vexed border dispute between Opacity in the time of an outbreak tect Delhi. The U.S. side is also fortunately, much of India’s stra­ India and China, the two countries hoping for two more mega de­ tegic thinking regarding China’s could try and arrive at a subliminal is sure to kill more people M.K. Narayanan fence deals, worth $3.5­billion to aggressive behaviour has been co­ understanding about respective rom quick sequencing of the whole genome of the be signed for 24 MH­60 Romeo loured by that of the U.S. and the spheres of influence. Today, one of coronavirus SARS­CoV­2 that causes COVID­19 — Multi Mission Helicopters for the West, though it is a proven fact India’s major concerns is that Chi­ after alerting WHO in December 2019 about a ndoubtedly, we are living Navy and an additional six AH­64E that China has not used lethal mil­ na is attempting to intrude into its F FIL PHOTO/AP through a moment of deci­ Apache Attack Helicopters for the itary force abroad since the 1980s. sphere of influence in South Asia, cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause — to Usive change and turbu­ Army. (India’s Cabinet Committee beating back the Pakistani China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the first and second concen­ quickly developing viral diagnostic tests , China has lence. This geo political period is on Security, on Wednesday, challenge. (BRI) does convey an impression tric circles of India’s interest areas, done much to address the epidemic. As on Wednesday, perhaps the most troubled since cleared the MH­60 helicopter Meeting the military, strategic that China seeks to put itself at the such as Afghanistan and parts of mainland China had 74,185 cases and 2,004 deaths. the final decades of the 20th c en­ deal.) and economic challenge from Chi­ centre of the world. The speed West Asia. The defence white pap­ Add to this the speed at which two new hospitals with tury. Hence, there exists a vital Given India’s rising global pro­ na is an entirely different matter. with which many of the steps to er might well provide a strategic 2,600 beds were built. Also, the many facilities that be­ need to adopt right strategic choic­ file, and with two major adversar­ China is not Pakistan, and while progress the BRI are being taken, paradigm, in which India and Chi­ came temporary hospitals in the face of growing cases es. According to 2018 data, India ies on its borders, India needs to China and Pakistan may have esta­ again conveys an impression that na agree to peacefully co­exist in occupies the fourth place in mili­ be fully prepared. What is lacking blished an axis to keep India in China is intent on shrinking the many areas, leaving aside conflict is testimony to China’s ability to pull off the unimagina­ tary expenditure across the world, in the defence jigsaw puzzle, ho­ check, explaining the nature of the physical and psychological dis­ zones of critical importance to ble in containing the epidemic. Whether the decision to behind the U.S., China, and Saudi wever, is a well considered and threat posed by China to India is a tance between Europe and East either, thus ensuring a more dura­ shut down huge cities to halt the viral spread may have Arabia. This does not mean that clearly articulated white paper on complex task that needs to be un­ Asia. This does not, however, ne­ ble peace between them. actually helped is debatable, but it is important to note India has no further need to in­ India’s defence needs, that sets out dertaken with care and caution. cessarily mean that China is pre­ One other outcome that the de­ that China has done a lot after the initial delay in report­ crease its stock of state­of­the art its strategic concerns, how it is po­ paring to confront individual fence white paper could attempt ing the disease. However, China, given its capabilit ies, weapons. What is needed, never­ sitioning itself to meet these chal­ Understanding Beijing countries in Asia, such as India, is: whether China views geo­eco­ could have contained the spread with very little effort theless, is sober reflection and a lenges, and the putative costs of To begin with, there are many ex­ which do not subscribe to the BRI. nomics as the primary arena of and resources had it been transparent and acted on cost­benefit analysis, to ensure meeting the country’s defence perts who express doubts as to A defence white paper would competition today. China has in­ that the amounts expended are in needs. whether China intends today to provide a more definitive answer vested heavily in artificial intelli­ time. Apparently, China did not apply the lessons it tune with our strategic pursue its 19th Century agenda, or to such issues. A detailed exercise gence, robotics and bio­technolo­ learnt from the SARS outbreak despite strident global requirements. Pakistan, China threats revert to its belief in ‘Tian Xia’. Un­ to assess whether China is indeed gy, and perhaps, India needs to criticism. Downplaying and being secretive about pu­ Several nations undertake such ex­ doubtedly under China’s Presi­ a threat, rather than a challenge, recognise that rather than black­ blic health issues, particularly novel virus outbreaks, as Defence deals in the pipeline ercises. In India, exercises of this dent Xi Jinping, China aims to be a to India should prove invaluable. It listing Chinese technology Tech it found out during SARS, and then now, can be very This is an opportune moment to kind are sometimes undertaken, great power and an assertive one is possible that a detailed study firms, (which could prove counter­ counterproductive. This is in contrast to the way Kerala undertake such a cost­benefit ana­ but they suffer from a lack of clar­ at that. India’s defence planners may indicate that China under­ productive) there exist avenues for handled the Nipah virus outbreaks in 2018­19. Transpa­ lysis. The first lot of Rafale fighter ity and are restricted in scope. should, however, carefully assess stands that there are limits to its cooperation, paving the way for jets are expected shortly. The final They contain vague references to whether there are degrees of “ as­ strength and capabilities. Several better state­to­state relations. rency and timely action helped the State contain the deal on the 200 Kamov Ka­226 the threat posed by China and Pa­ sertiveness” in China’s behaviou­ instances of late, have shown the outbreaks within days, with few cases, deaths in 2018. light utility helicopters from Rus­ kistan, but there is clearly more to ral patterns. There is little doubt frailties in China’s policies — Hong A focus on domestic politics There is an eerie similarity between China’s SARS sia is in advanced stages and ex­ India’s defence needs than exercis­ that regarding its claim to areas Kong, Taiwan, and even Xinjiang A final word. The defence white outbreak response in 2002­03 and the current epidem­ pected to be signed soon. In Oc­ es in military hagiography. What is falling within the ‘nine­dash lines’ are instances that indicate that paper needs to underscore that a ic. If, during SARS, it initially withheld information and tober 2018, India and Russia had required is a well formulated de­ (the first island chain), China is un­ China has its own Achilles h eel. country’s domestic politics are an delayed by three months reporting it to WHO, in the signed a $5.4­billion mega deal for fence white paper, putting the dif­ willing to make compromises. Consequently, China may not be important pointer to a stable fo­ case of COVID­19 it systematically downplayed its scale the S­400 Triumf Air Defence Sys­ ferent threats and dangers the na­ Whether this applies to other re­ ready, for quite some time at least, reign policy. There could be diffe­ tem. Under contemplation today tion faces in perspective, gions of Asia and the Indo­Pacific, to seek a direct confrontation with rent schools of thoughts within a for nearly six weeks after pneumonia cases of unknown are yet another set of high­value alongside steps taken to meet calls for an in­depth study. It India. nation, but equilibrium needs to cause were first seen on December 8, 2019. Shockingly, U.S. defence deals, including addi­ these challenges. would be premature for India A closer look at Beijing’s poli­ be maintained if it is not to adver­ even as it reported the case cluster to WHO on Decem­ tional purchases of P­8I Maritime In the case of Pakistan, the without undertaking such an ana­ cies, undertaken as part of a de­ sely impact a nation’s foreign poli­ ber 31, and the wet market, thought to be the outbreak Reconnaissance Aircraft and threat motif is, no doubt, obvious.