TIPRO Election Results and Analysis

As the 2020 election cycle concludes and all votes are counted, we can all agree that this one will long not be forgotten. The pandemic, economic crisis and a renewed struggle for racial justice aside, more tangible factors like record fundraising totals and banner turnout numbers have created new swing districts and have had a significant impact on many hotly contested races across the state. This is also the first cycle in that voters aren’t able to push a button for straight ticket voting.

For the first time in almost two decades, it was anticipated that a Democratic candidate could win a statewide election in Texas, and the Texas House, controlled by Republicans since 2002, could see a Democratic takeover. It’s important to note that Republicans have not had a net gain in the House since 2014 – Democrats have picked up 15 seats since then. Texas is truly becoming a battleground state.

A few highlights:

TURNOUT

During the extended early voting period from October 13 – 30, almost a full three weeks of Early Vote for the first time in history, 57.03 percent of registered voters cast ballots either through in- person early voting or through mail-in ballots. The overall number of early voters – 9,669,246 – broke the previous record of almost nine million (8,934,718) in the 2016 Texas General Election. That number is expected to rise as mail-in ballots continue to be delivered to elections offices, so long as they’re postmarked by November 3.

One driver of increased turnout was the high numbers of voters in the state’s most populous counties, such as Harris County, where more than 1.4 million people have already voted, compared to 1.34 million TOTAL votes in the last presidential election in 2016. The largest 25 counties reported Early Vote turnout between 45 to 69 percent.

Many Texas pundits have been asking if Rural Texas is still able to deliver for Republican candidates. This year may be the closest presidential race in Texas since 1976 (Jimmy Carter). This cycle has finally proven that urban/suburban areas are becoming “bluer”, or at least more competitive, and the rural firewall that has kept Republicans in power for so long may not be enough to carry them forward.

Many have also closely watched the age of voters turning out this cycle. In the largest counties, four out of every five voters under 40 cast a Democratic ballot during Early Vote. Those are huge numbers of new and first-time voters who support Democrats.

We’re still counting votes, but Election Day totals may push the state’s final vote count further into record-breaking territory. Predicted to be as high as 12 million votes, those numbers would bring the Texas turnout percentage beyond 70 percent, a new high in the modern era. In 2016, 73 percent of voters cast ballots early and 26 percent voted on Election Day. If those percentages translate to 2020, 12.5 million votes would be well within the realm of possibilities. Side note – There are 1.8 million more registered voters in Texas than in 2016, a 12.3 percent increase.

Previous TOTAL General Election turnout numbers (Early Vote plus Election Day) show Texas will most likely more than DOUBLE turnout in just a single decade:

• 2018 – 52.72% turnout (8,326,216 voters) • 2016 – 59.16% (8,934,718) • 2014 – 33.57% (4,708,556) • 2012 – 58.37% (7,993,851) • 2010 – 37.47% (4,972,895)

FUNDRAISING

This election cycle has been one of the most expensive in Texas to date. As Texas gains national attention for its potential to become a battleground state, Democrats are seeing a massive number of out-of-state campaign donations, particularly in the form of individual donors targeting the U.S. Senate and Railroad Commission seats, as well as competitive races in the Texas State Legislature.

Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising nearly $27 million on their 30-day campaign finance report (July 1 to September 24). Democrats accounted for $12.4 million of that total, and Republicans raised more than $14.6 million. Almost every campaign budget for contested House seats exceeded $1 million this cycle, with 20 exceeding $500,000 and four exceeding $1 million on the 30-day report in just the last few months leading up to Election Day.

While 2020 fundraising numbers for top races won’t set spending records like those of 2018, if Democrats make big gains in Texas on Election Day, and as Texas becomes a more defined battleground state, national PAC and special interest dollars will only increase in Texas in upcoming election cycles.

RESULTS

Incumbents are listed first and marked with an asterisk; open seats are listed alphabetically. The winners of no risk and unopposed seats are highlighted and underlined without indicating percentages of votes won. Some percentages of votes are still outstanding in certain counties, so percentages may not be final. Keep in mind that most races included a Libertarian and/or Independent candidate. We will update you as we know more.

PRESIDENT

Donald Trump * 52.3% vs. Joe Biden 46.3%

U.S. SENATE

John Cornyn * 53.7% vs. MJ Hegar 43.7%

RAILROAD COMMISSION

Chrysta Castaneda 43.3% vs. Jim Wright 53.2%

SUPREME COURT

Of the nine places on the Texas Supreme Court, four are on the ballot this November, including the Chief Justice.

Nathan Hecht * 53.1% vs. Amy Clark Meachum 44.1%

Jane Bland * 55.5% vs. Kathy Cheng 44.5%

Jeffrey S. Boyd * 53.5% vs. Staci Williams 44.1%

Brett Busby * 53.6% vs. Gisela Triana 43.8%

CONGRESSIONAL

Of the 36 Congressional seats in Texas, all 36 are on the ballot this November.

Competitive, Contested Incumbents

CD 2: Dan Crenshaw * 56.1% vs. Sima Ladjevardian 42.3%

CD 7: Lizzie Fletcher * 50.8% vs. Wesley Hunt 47.5%

CD 10: Michael McCaul * 52.5% vs. Mike Siegel 45.3%

CD 21: Chip Roy * 52.1% vs. Wendy Davis 45.2%

CD 31: John Carter * 53.5% vs. Donna Imam 44.3%

CD 32: Colin Allred * 51.9% vs. Genevieve Collins 46%

Competitive, Open (Vacated) Seats

CD 11: Jon Mark Hogg 18.8% vs. August Pfluger 79.3%

CD 13: Ronny Jackson 80.1% vs. Gus Trujillo 17.7%

CD 17: Rick Kennedy 40.9% vs. Pete Sessions 55.9%

CD 22: Sri Kulkami 42.8% vs. Troy Nehls 49.8%

CD 23: Tony Gonzales 50.7% vs. Gina Ortiz 46.5%

CD 24: Candace Valenzuela 47.5% vs. Beth Van Duyne 48.8%

No Risk Seats

CD 1: Louis Gohmert * vs. Hank Gilbert

CD 3: * vs. Lulu Seikaly

CD 4: * vs. Russell Foster

CD 5: Lance Gooden * vs. Carolyn Salter

CD 6: Ronald Wright * vs. Stephen Daniel

CD 8: Kevin Brady * vs. Elizabeth Hernandez

CD 9: Al Green * vs. Johnny Teague

CD 12: Kay Granger * vs. Lisa Welch

CD 14: Randy Weber * vs. Adrienne Bell

CD 15: Vicente Gonzalez, Jr. * vs. Monica De La Cruz Hernandez CD 16: Veronica Escobar * vs. Irene Armendariz-Jackson

CD 18: Sheila Jackson Lee * vs. Wendell Champion

CD 19: Jodey Arrington * vs. Tom Watson

CD 20: Joaquin Castro * vs. Mauro Garza

CD 25: Roger Williams * vs. Julie Oliver

CD 26: Michael Burgess * vs. Carol Iannuzzi

CD 27: Michael Cloud * vs. Ricardo De La Fuente

CD 28: Henry Cuellar * vs. Sandra Whitten

CD 29: Sylvia Garcia * vs. Jaimy Annette Zoboulikos-Blanco

CD 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson * vs. Tre Pennie

CD 33: Marc Veasey * vs. Fabian Cordova Vasquez

CD 34: Filemon Vela * vs. Rey Gonzalez, Jr.

CD 35: Lloyd Doggett * vs. Jenny Garcia Sharon

CD 36: Brian Babin * vs. Rashad Lewis

TEXAS SENATE RACES

Of the 31 Senate seats in Texas, 16 are on the ballot this November, and only one was a toss-up.

Competitive, Contested Incumbents

SD 19: Pete Flores * 46.5% vs. Roland Gutierrez 49.86%

No Risk and Unopposed Seats

SD 1: Bryan Hughes * vs. Audrey Spanko

SD 4: * vs. Jay Stittleburg

SD 6: – unopposed SD 11: Larry Taylor * vs. Susan Criss

SD 12: * vs. Shadi Zitoon

SD 13: * vs. Melinda Morris

SD 18: * vs. Michael Antalan

SD 20: Chuy Hinojosa * vs. Judy Cutright

SD 21: * vs. Frank Pomeroy

SD 22: * vs. Robert Vick

SD 24: * vs. Clayton Tucker

SD 26: – unopposed

SD 27: Eddie Lucio, Jr. * vs. Vanessa Tijerina

SD 28: Charles Perry – unopposed

SD 29: Cesar Blanco * vs. Bethany Hatch

TEXAS HOUSE RACES

The Texas House currently has 83 Republican and 67 Democrat members. Following the 2018 Democratic sweep, Democrats were aiming to flip 9 more seats and take majority control of the House. Republicans worked to protect incumbents and recover some of the seats they lost in 2018.

Republicans have 64 unopposed or safe seats, while Democrats have 58 unopposed or safe seats. There are 28 seats with varying degrees of risk. Of the 150 Texas House seats, all 150 are on the ballot this November.

As of now, Republicans have lost one incumbent seat, Rep. and have flipped one seat with Mike Schofield winning his old House seat back. The Republican majority is still 9 seats - 83 Rs and 67 Ds. We are still waiting to see the final vote tally in HD 135 between Republican Challenger Justin Ray and Democrat Incumbent .

Competitive, Contested Incumbents

HD 14 (Brazos): John Raney * 57.5% vs. Janet Dudding 42.5% HD 28 (Fort Bend): * 55.6% vs. Elizabeth Markowitz 44.4%

HD 45 (Blanco/Hays): * 50.5% vs. Carrie Isaac 49.5%

HD 47 (Travis): * 49.3% vs. Justin Berry 48.3%

HD 52 (Williamson): * 51.4% vs. Lucio Valdez 48.6%

HD 54 (Bell/Lampasas): Brad Buckley * 53.5% vs. Keke Williams 46.5%

HD 64 (Denton): * 54.9% vs. Angela Brewer 45.1%

HD 65 (Denton): * 51.5% vs. Kronda Thimesch 48.5%

HD 66 (Collin): * 49.7% vs. Sharon Hirsch 48.5%

HD 67 (Collin): * 51.8% vs. Lorenzo Sanchez 48.2%

HD 93 (Tarrant): Matt Krause * 54.7% vs. Lydia Bean 45.3%

HD 94 (Tarrant): * 51.0% vs. Alisa Simmons 45.8%

HD 97 (Tarrant): * 52.8% vs. Elizabeth Beck 44.9%

HD 102 (): Ana-Marie Ramos * 53.9% vs. Linda Koop 46.1%

HD 108 (Dallas): Morgan Meyer * 49.7% vs. Joanna Cattanach 48.0%

HD 112 (Dallas): * 48.9% vs. Brandy Chambers 48.6%

HD 113 (Dallas): * 51.8% vs. Will Douglas 48.2%

HD 114 (Dallas): John Turner * 53.6% vs. Luisa Del Rosal 46.4%

HD 121 (Bexar): * 53.5% vs. Celina Montoya 46.5%

HD 126 (Harris): * 53.5% vs. Natali Hurtado 46.5%

HD 132 (Harris): Gina Calanni * 48.2% vs. Mike Schofield 51.8%

HD 133 (Harris): Jim Murphy * 57.2% vs. Sandra Moore 41.1%

HD 134 (Harris): Sarah Davis * 47.7% vs. 52.3%

HD 135 (Harris): Jon Rosenthal * 49.1% vs. Justin Ray 48.6%

Competitive, Open (Vacated) Seats

HD 26 (Ft. Bend): Sarah DeMerchant * 48.1% vs. 51.9%

HD 92 (Tarrant): Jeff Cason * 51.1% vs. Jeff Whittfield 47.0%

HD 96 (Tarrant): David Cook * 51.2% vs. Joe Drago 46.1%

HD 138 (Harris): Akilah Bacy * 48.5% vs. 51.5%

No Risk and Unopposed Seats

HD 1 Gary VanDeaver – unopposed

HD 2 Bill Brannon v.

HD 3 Cecil Bell * v. Martin Shupp

HD 4 – unopposed

HD 5 * v. LaWyanda Prince

HD 6 * v. Julie Gobble

HD 7 – unopposed

HD 8 – unopposed

HD 9 – unopposed

HD 10 – unopposed

HD 11 * v. Alec Johnson

HD 12 – unopposed

HD 13 – unopposed

HD 15 * v. Lorena Perez McGill

HD 16 – unopposed

HD 17 * v. Madeline Eden

HD 18 – unopposed

HD 19 James White – unopposed

HD 20 Terry Wilson * v. Jessica Tiedt

HD 21 – unopposed

HD 22 * v. Jacorion Randle

HD 23 * v. Jeff Antonelli

HD 24 * v. Brian Rogers

HD 25 Patrick Henry v.

HD 27 Ron Reynolds * v. Tom Virippan

HD 29 Ed Thompson * v. Travis Boldt

HD 30 – unopposed

HD 31 * v. Marian Knowlton

HD 32 Todd Hunter * v. Eric Holguin

HD 33 Justin Holland * v. Andy Rose

HD 34 * v. James Hernandez

HD 35 – unopposed

HD 36 Sergio Munoz – unopposed

HD 37 – unopposed

HD 38 Eddie Lucio III * v. Erasmo Castro

HD 39 Mando Martinez – unopposed

HD 40 – unopposed

HD 41 Bobby Guerra * v. John Guerra

HD 42 Richard Pena Raymond – unopposed

HD 43 JM Lozano – unopposed

HD 44 * v. Robert Bohmfalk

HD 46 – unopposed

HD 48 * v. Bill Strieber

HD 49 * v. Charles Meyer

HD 50 * v. Larry Delarose

HD 51 Eddie Rodriguez * v. Robert Reynolds

HD 53 Andrew Murr * v. Joe Herrero

HD 55 – unopposed

HD 56 Doc Anderson * v. Katherine Turner-Pearson

HD 57 * v. Jason Rogers

HD 58 Dewayne Burns * v. Cindy Rocha

HD 59 – unopposed

HD 60 Glenn Rogers – unopposed

HD 61 Phil King * v. Christopher Cox

HD 62 Reggie Smith * v. Gary Thomas

HD 63 * v. Leslie Peeler

HD 68 * v. Patsy Ledbetter

HD 69 – unopposed

HD 70 * v. Angie Bado

HD 71 * v. Sam Hatton

HD 72 – unopposed

HD 73 * v. Stephanie Phillips

HD 74 Ruben Falcon v. Jr.

HD 75 Mary Gonzalez – unopposed

HD 76 – unopposed

HD 77 Lina Ortega – unopposed

HD 78 * v. Jeffrey Lane

HD 79 – unopposed

HD 80 – unopposed

HD 81 – unopposed

HD 82 – unopposed

HD 83 * v. Addison Perry-Franks

HD 84 * v. John Gibson

HD 85 Phil Stephenson * v. Joey Cardenas III

HD 86 John T. Smithee – unopposed

HD 87 – unopposed

HD 88 – unopposed

HD 89 * v. Ray Ash

HD 90 Ramon Romero Jr. * v. Elva Camacho

HD 91 * v. Jeromey Sims

HD 95 – unopposed

HD 98 * v. Debra Edmondson

HD 99 – unopposed

HD 100 – unopposed

HD 101 Chris Turner – unopposed

HD 103 * v. Jeff Fortenberry

HD 104 Jessica Gonzalez – unopposed

HD 105 * v. Gerson Hernandez

HD 106 * v. Jennifer Skidonenko

HD 107 * v. Samuel Smith

HD 109 Carl Sherman Sr. * v. Eugene Allen

HD 110 – unopposed

HD 111 – unopposed

HD 115 Julie Johnson * v. Karyn Brownlee

HD 116 Trey Martinez-Fischer * v. Robert Litoff

HD 117 * v. Carlos Antonio Raymond

HD 118 * v. Adam Salyer

HD 119 Liz Campos v. George Garza

HD 120 Barbara Gervin-Hawkins * v. Ronald Payne

HD 122 * v. Claire Barnett

HD 123 – unopposed

HD 124 – unopposed

HD 125 – unopposed

HD 127 – unopposed

HD 128 * v. Mary Williams

HD 129 * v. Kayla Alix

HD 130 * v. Bryan Henry

HD 131 – unopposed

HD 136 John Bucy III * v. Mike Guevara

HD 137 – unopposed

HD 139 – unopposed

HD 140 – unopposed

HD 141 – unopposed

HD 142 Harold Dutton Jr. * v. Jason Rowe

HD 143 – unopposed

HD 144 * v. Tony Salas

HD 145 * v. Martha Elena Fierro

HD 146 – unopposed

HD 147 – unopposed

HD 148 Luis LaRotta v. Penny Shaw

HD 149 * v. Lily Truong

HD 150 * v. Michael Walsh