TIPRO Election Results and Analysis
As the 2020 election cycle concludes and all votes are counted, we can all agree that this one will long not be forgotten. The pandemic, economic crisis and a renewed struggle for racial justice aside, more tangible factors like record fundraising totals and banner turnout numbers have created new swing districts and have had a significant impact on many hotly contested races across the state. This is also the first cycle in Texas that voters aren’t able to push a button for straight ticket voting.
For the first time in almost two decades, it was anticipated that a Democratic candidate could win a statewide election in Texas, and the Texas House, controlled by Republicans since 2002, could see a Democratic takeover. It’s important to note that Republicans have not had a net gain in the House since 2014 – Democrats have picked up 15 seats since then. Texas is truly becoming a battleground state.
A few highlights:
TURNOUT
During the extended early voting period from October 13 – 30, almost a full three weeks of Early Vote for the first time in history, 57.03 percent of registered voters cast ballots either through in- person early voting or through mail-in ballots. The overall number of early voters – 9,669,246 – broke the previous record of almost nine million (8,934,718) in the 2016 Texas General Election. That number is expected to rise as mail-in ballots continue to be delivered to elections offices, so long as they’re postmarked by November 3.
One driver of increased turnout was the high numbers of voters in the state’s most populous counties, such as Harris County, where more than 1.4 million people have already voted, compared to 1.34 million TOTAL votes in the last presidential election in 2016. The largest 25 counties reported Early Vote turnout between 45 to 69 percent.
Many Texas pundits have been asking if Rural Texas is still able to deliver for Republican candidates. This year may be the closest presidential race in Texas since 1976 (Jimmy Carter). This cycle has finally proven that urban/suburban areas are becoming “bluer”, or at least more competitive, and the rural firewall that has kept Republicans in power for so long may not be enough to carry them forward.
Many have also closely watched the age of voters turning out this cycle. In the largest counties, four out of every five voters under 40 cast a Democratic ballot during Early Vote. Those are huge numbers of new and first-time voters who support Democrats.
We’re still counting votes, but Election Day totals may push the state’s final vote count further into record-breaking territory. Predicted to be as high as 12 million votes, those numbers would bring the Texas turnout percentage beyond 70 percent, a new high in the modern era. In 2016, 73 percent of voters cast ballots early and 26 percent voted on Election Day. If those percentages translate to 2020, 12.5 million votes would be well within the realm of possibilities. Side note – There are 1.8 million more registered voters in Texas than in 2016, a 12.3 percent increase.
Previous TOTAL General Election turnout numbers (Early Vote plus Election Day) show Texas will most likely more than DOUBLE turnout in just a single decade:
• 2018 – 52.72% turnout (8,326,216 voters) • 2016 – 59.16% (8,934,718) • 2014 – 33.57% (4,708,556) • 2012 – 58.37% (7,993,851) • 2010 – 37.47% (4,972,895)
FUNDRAISING
This election cycle has been one of the most expensive in Texas to date. As Texas gains national attention for its potential to become a battleground state, Democrats are seeing a massive number of out-of-state campaign donations, particularly in the form of individual donors targeting the U.S. Senate and Railroad Commission seats, as well as competitive races in the Texas State Legislature.
Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising nearly $27 million on their 30-day campaign finance report (July 1 to September 24). Democrats accounted for $12.4 million of that total, and Republicans raised more than $14.6 million. Almost every campaign budget for contested House seats exceeded $1 million this cycle, with 20 exceeding $500,000 and four exceeding $1 million on the 30-day report in just the last few months leading up to Election Day.
While 2020 fundraising numbers for top races won’t set spending records like those of 2018, if Democrats make big gains in Texas on Election Day, and as Texas becomes a more defined battleground state, national PAC and special interest dollars will only increase in Texas in upcoming election cycles.
RESULTS
Incumbents are listed first and marked with an asterisk; open seats are listed alphabetically. The winners of no risk and unopposed seats are highlighted and underlined without indicating percentages of votes won. Some percentages of votes are still outstanding in certain counties, so percentages may not be final. Keep in mind that most races included a Libertarian and/or Independent candidate. We will update you as we know more.
PRESIDENT
Donald Trump * 52.3% vs. Joe Biden 46.3%
U.S. SENATE
John Cornyn * 53.7% vs. MJ Hegar 43.7%
RAILROAD COMMISSION
Chrysta Castaneda 43.3% vs. Jim Wright 53.2%
SUPREME COURT
Of the nine places on the Texas Supreme Court, four are on the ballot this November, including the Chief Justice.
Nathan Hecht * 53.1% vs. Amy Clark Meachum 44.1%
Jane Bland * 55.5% vs. Kathy Cheng 44.5%
Jeffrey S. Boyd * 53.5% vs. Staci Williams 44.1%
Brett Busby * 53.6% vs. Gisela Triana 43.8%
CONGRESSIONAL
Of the 36 Congressional seats in Texas, all 36 are on the ballot this November.
Competitive, Contested Incumbents
CD 2: Dan Crenshaw * 56.1% vs. Sima Ladjevardian 42.3%
CD 7: Lizzie Fletcher * 50.8% vs. Wesley Hunt 47.5%
CD 10: Michael McCaul * 52.5% vs. Mike Siegel 45.3%
CD 21: Chip Roy * 52.1% vs. Wendy Davis 45.2%
CD 31: John Carter * 53.5% vs. Donna Imam 44.3%
CD 32: Colin Allred * 51.9% vs. Genevieve Collins 46%
Competitive, Open (Vacated) Seats
CD 11: Jon Mark Hogg 18.8% vs. August Pfluger 79.3%
CD 13: Ronny Jackson 80.1% vs. Gus Trujillo 17.7%
CD 17: Rick Kennedy 40.9% vs. Pete Sessions 55.9%
CD 22: Sri Kulkami 42.8% vs. Troy Nehls 49.8%
CD 23: Tony Gonzales 50.7% vs. Gina Ortiz 46.5%
CD 24: Candace Valenzuela 47.5% vs. Beth Van Duyne 48.8%
No Risk Seats
CD 1: Louis Gohmert * vs. Hank Gilbert
CD 3: Van Taylor * vs. Lulu Seikaly
CD 4: Pat Fallon * vs. Russell Foster
CD 5: Lance Gooden * vs. Carolyn Salter
CD 6: Ronald Wright * vs. Stephen Daniel
CD 8: Kevin Brady * vs. Elizabeth Hernandez
CD 9: Al Green * vs. Johnny Teague
CD 12: Kay Granger * vs. Lisa Welch
CD 14: Randy Weber * vs. Adrienne Bell
CD 15: Vicente Gonzalez, Jr. * vs. Monica De La Cruz Hernandez CD 16: Veronica Escobar * vs. Irene Armendariz-Jackson
CD 18: Sheila Jackson Lee * vs. Wendell Champion
CD 19: Jodey Arrington * vs. Tom Watson
CD 20: Joaquin Castro * vs. Mauro Garza
CD 25: Roger Williams * vs. Julie Oliver
CD 26: Michael Burgess * vs. Carol Iannuzzi
CD 27: Michael Cloud * vs. Ricardo De La Fuente
CD 28: Henry Cuellar * vs. Sandra Whitten
CD 29: Sylvia Garcia * vs. Jaimy Annette Zoboulikos-Blanco
CD 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson * vs. Tre Pennie
CD 33: Marc Veasey * vs. Fabian Cordova Vasquez
CD 34: Filemon Vela * vs. Rey Gonzalez, Jr.
CD 35: Lloyd Doggett * vs. Jenny Garcia Sharon
CD 36: Brian Babin * vs. Rashad Lewis
TEXAS SENATE RACES
Of the 31 Senate seats in Texas, 16 are on the ballot this November, and only one was a toss-up.
Competitive, Contested Incumbents
SD 19: Pete Flores * 46.5% vs. Roland Gutierrez 49.86%
No Risk and Unopposed Seats
SD 1: Bryan Hughes * vs. Audrey Spanko
SD 4: Brandon Creighton * vs. Jay Stittleburg
SD 6: Carol Alvarado – unopposed SD 11: Larry Taylor * vs. Susan Criss
SD 12: Jane Nelson * vs. Shadi Zitoon
SD 13: Borris Miles * vs. Melinda Morris
SD 18: Lois Kolkhorst * vs. Michael Antalan
SD 20: Chuy Hinojosa * vs. Judy Cutright
SD 21: Judith Zaffirini * vs. Frank Pomeroy
SD 22: Brian Birdwell * vs. Robert Vick
SD 24: Dawn Buckingham * vs. Clayton Tucker
SD 26: Jose Menendez – unopposed
SD 27: Eddie Lucio, Jr. * vs. Vanessa Tijerina
SD 28: Charles Perry – unopposed
SD 29: Cesar Blanco * vs. Bethany Hatch
TEXAS HOUSE RACES
The Texas House currently has 83 Republican and 67 Democrat members. Following the 2018 Democratic sweep, Democrats were aiming to flip 9 more seats and take majority control of the House. Republicans worked to protect incumbents and recover some of the seats they lost in 2018.
Republicans have 64 unopposed or safe seats, while Democrats have 58 unopposed or safe seats. There are 28 seats with varying degrees of risk. Of the 150 Texas House seats, all 150 are on the ballot this November.
As of now, Republicans have lost one incumbent seat, Rep. Sarah Davis and have flipped one seat with Mike Schofield winning his old House seat back. The Republican majority is still 9 seats - 83 Rs and 67 Ds. We are still waiting to see the final vote tally in HD 135 between Republican Challenger Justin Ray and Democrat Incumbent Jon Rosenthal.
Competitive, Contested Incumbents
HD 14 (Brazos): John Raney * 57.5% vs. Janet Dudding 42.5% HD 28 (Fort Bend): Gary Gates * 55.6% vs. Elizabeth Markowitz 44.4%
HD 45 (Blanco/Hays): Erin Zwiener * 50.5% vs. Carrie Isaac 49.5%
HD 47 (Travis): Vikki Goodwin * 49.3% vs. Justin Berry 48.3%
HD 52 (Williamson): James Talarico * 51.4% vs. Lucio Valdez 48.6%
HD 54 (Bell/Lampasas): Brad Buckley * 53.5% vs. Keke Williams 46.5%
HD 64 (Denton): Lynn Stucky * 54.9% vs. Angela Brewer 45.1%
HD 65 (Denton): Michelle Beckley * 51.5% vs. Kronda Thimesch 48.5%
HD 66 (Collin): Matt Shaheen * 49.7% vs. Sharon Hirsch 48.5%
HD 67 (Collin): Jeff Leach * 51.8% vs. Lorenzo Sanchez 48.2%
HD 93 (Tarrant): Matt Krause * 54.7% vs. Lydia Bean 45.3%
HD 94 (Tarrant): Tony Tinderholt * 51.0% vs. Alisa Simmons 45.8%
HD 97 (Tarrant): Craig Goldman * 52.8% vs. Elizabeth Beck 44.9%
HD 102 (Dallas): Ana-Marie Ramos * 53.9% vs. Linda Koop 46.1%
HD 108 (Dallas): Morgan Meyer * 49.7% vs. Joanna Cattanach 48.0%
HD 112 (Dallas): Angie Chen Button * 48.9% vs. Brandy Chambers 48.6%
HD 113 (Dallas): Rhetta Bowers * 51.8% vs. Will Douglas 48.2%
HD 114 (Dallas): John Turner * 53.6% vs. Luisa Del Rosal 46.4%
HD 121 (Bexar): Steve Allison * 53.5% vs. Celina Montoya 46.5%
HD 126 (Harris): Sam Harless * 53.5% vs. Natali Hurtado 46.5%
HD 132 (Harris): Gina Calanni * 48.2% vs. Mike Schofield 51.8%
HD 133 (Harris): Jim Murphy * 57.2% vs. Sandra Moore 41.1%
HD 134 (Harris): Sarah Davis * 47.7% vs. Ann Johnson 52.3%
HD 135 (Harris): Jon Rosenthal * 49.1% vs. Justin Ray 48.6%
Competitive, Open (Vacated) Seats
HD 26 (Ft. Bend): Sarah DeMerchant * 48.1% vs. Jacey Jetton 51.9%
HD 92 (Tarrant): Jeff Cason * 51.1% vs. Jeff Whittfield 47.0%
HD 96 (Tarrant): David Cook * 51.2% vs. Joe Drago 46.1%
HD 138 (Harris): Akilah Bacy * 48.5% vs. Lacey Hull 51.5%
No Risk and Unopposed Seats
HD 1 Gary VanDeaver – unopposed
HD 2 Bill Brannon v. Bryan Slaton
HD 3 Cecil Bell * v. Martin Shupp
HD 4 Keith Bell – unopposed
HD 5 Cole Hefner * v. LaWyanda Prince
HD 6 Matt Schaefer * v. Julie Gobble
HD 7 Jay Dean – unopposed
HD 8 Cody Harris – unopposed
HD 9 Chris Paddie – unopposed
HD 10 Jake Ellzey – unopposed
HD 11 Travis Clardy * v. Alec Johnson
HD 12 Kyle Kacal – unopposed
HD 13 Ben Leman – unopposed
HD 15 Steve Toth * v. Lorena Perez McGill
HD 16 Will Metcalf – unopposed
HD 17 John Cyrier * v. Madeline Eden
HD 18 Ernest Bailes – unopposed
HD 19 James White – unopposed
HD 20 Terry Wilson * v. Jessica Tiedt
HD 21 Dade Phelan – unopposed
HD 22 Joe Deshotel * v. Jacorion Randle
HD 23 Mayes Middleton * v. Jeff Antonelli
HD 24 Greg Bonnen * v. Brian Rogers
HD 25 Patrick Henry v. Cody Vasut
HD 27 Ron Reynolds * v. Tom Virippan
HD 29 Ed Thompson * v. Travis Boldt
HD 30 Geanie Morrison – unopposed
HD 31 Ryan Guillen * v. Marian Knowlton
HD 32 Todd Hunter * v. Eric Holguin
HD 33 Justin Holland * v. Andy Rose
HD 34 Abel Herrero * v. James Hernandez
HD 35 Oscar Longoria – unopposed
HD 36 Sergio Munoz – unopposed
HD 37 Alex Dominguez – unopposed
HD 38 Eddie Lucio III * v. Erasmo Castro
HD 39 Mando Martinez – unopposed
HD 40 Terry Canales – unopposed
HD 41 Bobby Guerra * v. John Guerra
HD 42 Richard Pena Raymond – unopposed
HD 43 JM Lozano – unopposed
HD 44 John Kuempel * v. Robert Bohmfalk
HD 46 Sheryl Cole – unopposed
HD 48 Donna Howard * v. Bill Strieber
HD 49 Gina Hinojosa * v. Charles Meyer
HD 50 Celia Israel * v. Larry Delarose
HD 51 Eddie Rodriguez * v. Robert Reynolds
HD 53 Andrew Murr * v. Joe Herrero
HD 55 Hugh Shine – unopposed
HD 56 Doc Anderson * v. Katherine Turner-Pearson
HD 57 Trent Ashby * v. Jason Rogers
HD 58 Dewayne Burns * v. Cindy Rocha
HD 59 Shelby Slawson – unopposed
HD 60 Glenn Rogers – unopposed
HD 61 Phil King * v. Christopher Cox
HD 62 Reggie Smith * v. Gary Thomas
HD 63 Tan Parker * v. Leslie Peeler
HD 68 Drew Springer * v. Patsy Ledbetter
HD 69 James Frank – unopposed
HD 70 Scott Sanford * v. Angie Bado
HD 71 Stan Lambert * v. Sam Hatton
HD 72 Drew Darby – unopposed
HD 73 Kyle Biedermann * v. Stephanie Phillips
HD 74 Ruben Falcon v. Eddie Morales Jr.
HD 75 Mary Gonzalez – unopposed
HD 76 Claudia Ordaz Perez – unopposed
HD 77 Lina Ortega – unopposed
HD 78 Joe Moody * v. Jeffrey Lane
HD 79 Art Fierro – unopposed
HD 80 Tracy King – unopposed
HD 81 Brooks Landgraf – unopposed
HD 82 Tom Craddick – unopposed
HD 83 Dustin Burrows * v. Addison Perry-Franks
HD 84 John Frullo * v. John Gibson
HD 85 Phil Stephenson * v. Joey Cardenas III
HD 86 John T. Smithee – unopposed
HD 87 Four Price – unopposed
HD 88 Ken King – unopposed
HD 89 Candy Noble * v. Ray Ash
HD 90 Ramon Romero Jr. * v. Elva Camacho
HD 91 Stephanie Klick * v. Jeromey Sims
HD 95 Nicole Collier – unopposed
HD 98 Giovanni Capriglione * v. Debra Edmondson
HD 99 Charlie Geren – unopposed
HD 100 Jasmine Crockett – unopposed
HD 101 Chris Turner – unopposed
HD 103 Rafael Anchia * v. Jeff Fortenberry
HD 104 Jessica Gonzalez – unopposed
HD 105 Terry Meza * v. Gerson Hernandez
HD 106 Jared Patterson * v. Jennifer Skidonenko
HD 107 Victoria Neave * v. Samuel Smith
HD 109 Carl Sherman Sr. * v. Eugene Allen
HD 110 Toni Rose – unopposed
HD 111 Yvonne Davis – unopposed
HD 115 Julie Johnson * v. Karyn Brownlee
HD 116 Trey Martinez-Fischer * v. Robert Litoff
HD 117 Philip Cortez * v. Carlos Antonio Raymond
HD 118 Leo Pacheco * v. Adam Salyer
HD 119 Liz Campos v. George Garza
HD 120 Barbara Gervin-Hawkins * v. Ronald Payne
HD 122 Lyle Larson * v. Claire Barnett
HD 123 Diego Bernal – unopposed
HD 124 Ina Minjarez – unopposed
HD 125 Ray Lopez – unopposed
HD 127 Dan Huberty – unopposed
HD 128 Briscoe Cain * v. Mary Williams
HD 129 Dennis Paul * v. Kayla Alix
HD 130 Tom Oliverson * v. Bryan Henry
HD 131 Alma Allen – unopposed
HD 136 John Bucy III * v. Mike Guevara
HD 137 Gene Wu – unopposed
HD 139 Jarvis Johnson – unopposed
HD 140 Armando Walle – unopposed
HD 141 Senfronia Thompson – unopposed
HD 142 Harold Dutton Jr. * v. Jason Rowe
HD 143 Ana Hernandez – unopposed
HD 144 Mary Ann Perez * v. Tony Salas
HD 145 Christina Morales * v. Martha Elena Fierro
HD 146 Shawn Thierry – unopposed
HD 147 Garnet Coleman – unopposed
HD 148 Luis LaRotta v. Penny Shaw
HD 149 Hubert Vo * v. Lily Truong
HD 150 Valoree Swanson * v. Michael Walsh