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TIPRO Election Results and Analysis As the 2020 Election Cycle

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TIPRO Election Results and Analysis As the 2020 Election Cycle TIPRO Election Results and Analysis As the 2020 election cycle concludes and all votes are counted, we can all agree that this one will long not be forgotten. The pandemic, economic crisis and a renewed struggle for racial justice aside, more tangible factors like record fundraising totals and banner turnout numbers have created new swing districts and have had a significant impact on many hotly contested races across the state. This is also the first cycle in Texas that voters aren’t able to push a button for straight ticket voting. For the first time in almost two decades, it was anticipated that a Democratic candidate could win a statewide election in Texas, and the Texas House, controlled by Republicans since 2002, could see a Democratic takeover. It’s important to note that Republicans have not had a net gain in the House since 2014 – Democrats have picked up 15 seats since then. Texas is truly becoming a battleground state. A few highlights: TURNOUT During the extended early voting period from October 13 – 30, almost a full three weeks of Early Vote for the first time in history, 57.03 percent of registered voters cast ballots either through in- person early voting or through mail-in ballots. The overall number of early voters – 9,669,246 – broke the previous record of almost nine million (8,934,718) in the 2016 Texas General Election. That number is expected to rise as mail-in ballots continue to be delivered to elections offices, so long as they’re postmarked by November 3. One driver of increased turnout was the high numbers of voters in the state’s most populous counties, such as Harris County, where more than 1.4 million people have already voted, compared to 1.34 million TOTAL votes in the last presidential election in 2016. The largest 25 counties reported Early Vote turnout between 45 to 69 percent. Many Texas pundits have been asking if Rural Texas is still able to deliver for Republican candidates. This year may be the closest presidential race in Texas since 1976 (Jimmy Carter). This cycle has finally proven that urban/suburban areas are becoming “bluer”, or at least more competitive, and the rural firewall that has kept Republicans in power for so long may not be enough to carry them forward. Many have also closely watched the age of voters turning out this cycle. In the largest counties, four out of every five voters under 40 cast a Democratic ballot during Early Vote. Those are huge numbers of new and first-time voters who support Democrats. We’re still counting votes, but Election Day totals may push the state’s final vote count further into record-breaking territory. Predicted to be as high as 12 million votes, those numbers would bring the Texas turnout percentage beyond 70 percent, a new high in the modern era. In 2016, 73 percent of voters cast ballots early and 26 percent voted on Election Day. If those percentages translate to 2020, 12.5 million votes would be well within the realm of possibilities. Side note – There are 1.8 million more registered voters in Texas than in 2016, a 12.3 percent increase. Previous TOTAL General Election turnout numbers (Early Vote plus Election Day) show Texas will most likely more than DOUBLE turnout in just a single decade: • 2018 – 52.72% turnout (8,326,216 voters) • 2016 – 59.16% (8,934,718) • 2014 – 33.57% (4,708,556) • 2012 – 58.37% (7,993,851) • 2010 – 37.47% (4,972,895) FUNDRAISING This election cycle has been one of the most expensive in Texas to date. As Texas gains national attention for its potential to become a battleground state, Democrats are seeing a massive number of out-of-state campaign donations, particularly in the form of individual donors targeting the U.S. Senate and Railroad Commission seats, as well as competitive races in the Texas State Legislature. Statewide and legislative candidates facing general election opposition reported raising nearly $27 million on their 30-day campaign finance report (July 1 to September 24). Democrats accounted for $12.4 million of that total, and Republicans raised more than $14.6 million. Almost every campaign budget for contested House seats exceeded $1 million this cycle, with 20 exceeding $500,000 and four exceeding $1 million on the 30-day report in just the last few months leading up to Election Day. While 2020 fundraising numbers for top races won’t set spending records like those of 2018, if Democrats make big gains in Texas on Election Day, and as Texas becomes a more defined battleground state, national PAC and special interest dollars will only increase in Texas in upcoming election cycles. RESULTS Incumbents are listed first and marked with an asterisk; open seats are listed alphabetically. The winners of no risk and unopposed seats are highlighted and underlined without indicating percentages of votes won. Some percentages of votes are still outstanding in certain counties, so percentages may not be final. Keep in mind that most races included a Libertarian and/or Independent candidate. We will update you as we know more. PRESIDENT Donald Trump * 52.3% vs. Joe Biden 46.3% U.S. SENATE John Cornyn * 53.7% vs. MJ Hegar 43.7% RAILROAD COMMISSION Chrysta Castaneda 43.3% vs. Jim Wright 53.2% SUPREME COURT Of the nine places on the Texas Supreme Court, four are on the ballot this November, including the Chief Justice. Nathan Hecht * 53.1% vs. Amy Clark Meachum 44.1% Jane Bland * 55.5% vs. Kathy Cheng 44.5% Jeffrey S. Boyd * 53.5% vs. Staci Williams 44.1% Brett Busby * 53.6% vs. Gisela Triana 43.8% CONGRESSIONAL Of the 36 Congressional seats in Texas, all 36 are on the ballot this November. Competitive, Contested Incumbents CD 2: Dan Crenshaw * 56.1% vs. Sima Ladjevardian 42.3% CD 7: Lizzie Fletcher * 50.8% vs. Wesley Hunt 47.5% CD 10: Michael McCaul * 52.5% vs. Mike Siegel 45.3% CD 21: Chip Roy * 52.1% vs. Wendy Davis 45.2% CD 31: John Carter * 53.5% vs. Donna Imam 44.3% CD 32: Colin Allred * 51.9% vs. Genevieve Collins 46% Competitive, Open (Vacated) Seats CD 11: Jon Mark Hogg 18.8% vs. August Pfluger 79.3% CD 13: Ronny Jackson 80.1% vs. Gus Trujillo 17.7% CD 17: Rick Kennedy 40.9% vs. Pete Sessions 55.9% CD 22: Sri Kulkami 42.8% vs. Troy Nehls 49.8% CD 23: Tony Gonzales 50.7% vs. Gina Ortiz 46.5% CD 24: Candace Valenzuela 47.5% vs. Beth Van Duyne 48.8% No Risk Seats CD 1: Louis Gohmert * vs. Hank Gilbert CD 3: Van Taylor * vs. Lulu Seikaly CD 4: Pat Fallon * vs. Russell Foster CD 5: Lance Gooden * vs. Carolyn Salter CD 6: Ronald Wright * vs. Stephen Daniel CD 8: Kevin Brady * vs. Elizabeth Hernandez CD 9: Al Green * vs. Johnny Teague CD 12: Kay Granger * vs. Lisa Welch CD 14: Randy Weber * vs. Adrienne Bell CD 15: Vicente Gonzalez, Jr. * vs. Monica De La Cruz Hernandez CD 16: Veronica Escobar * vs. Irene Armendariz-Jackson CD 18: Sheila Jackson Lee * vs. Wendell Champion CD 19: Jodey Arrington * vs. Tom Watson CD 20: Joaquin Castro * vs. Mauro Garza CD 25: Roger Williams * vs. Julie Oliver CD 26: Michael Burgess * vs. Carol Iannuzzi CD 27: Michael Cloud * vs. Ricardo De La Fuente CD 28: Henry Cuellar * vs. Sandra Whitten CD 29: Sylvia Garcia * vs. Jaimy Annette Zoboulikos-Blanco CD 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson * vs. Tre Pennie CD 33: Marc Veasey * vs. Fabian Cordova Vasquez CD 34: Filemon Vela * vs. Rey Gonzalez, Jr. CD 35: Lloyd Doggett * vs. Jenny Garcia Sharon CD 36: Brian Babin * vs. Rashad Lewis TEXAS SENATE RACES Of the 31 Senate seats in Texas, 16 are on the ballot this November, and only one was a toss-up. Competitive, Contested Incumbents SD 19: Pete Flores * 46.5% vs. Roland Gutierrez 49.86% No Risk and Unopposed Seats SD 1: Bryan Hughes * vs. Audrey Spanko SD 4: Brandon Creighton * vs. Jay Stittleburg SD 6: Carol Alvarado – unopposed SD 11: Larry Taylor * vs. Susan Criss SD 12: Jane Nelson * vs. Shadi Zitoon SD 13: Borris Miles * vs. Melinda Morris SD 18: Lois Kolkhorst * vs. Michael Antalan SD 20: Chuy Hinojosa * vs. Judy Cutright SD 21: Judith Zaffirini * vs. Frank Pomeroy SD 22: Brian Birdwell * vs. Robert Vick SD 24: Dawn Buckingham * vs. Clayton Tucker SD 26: Jose Menendez – unopposed SD 27: Eddie Lucio, Jr. * vs. Vanessa Tijerina SD 28: Charles Perry – unopposed SD 29: Cesar Blanco * vs. Bethany Hatch TEXAS HOUSE RACES The Texas House currently has 83 Republican and 67 Democrat members. Following the 2018 Democratic sweep, Democrats were aiming to flip 9 more seats and take majority control of the House. Republicans worked to protect incumbents and recover some of the seats they lost in 2018. Republicans have 64 unopposed or safe seats, while Democrats have 58 unopposed or safe seats. There are 28 seats with varying degrees of risk. Of the 150 Texas House seats, all 150 are on the ballot this November. As of now, Republicans have lost one incumbent seat, Rep. Sarah Davis and have flipped one seat with Mike Schofield winning his old House seat back. The Republican majority is still 9 seats - 83 Rs and 67 Ds. We are still waiting to see the final vote tally in HD 135 between Republican Challenger Justin Ray and Democrat Incumbent Jon Rosenthal. Competitive, Contested Incumbents HD 14 (Brazos): John Raney * 57.5% vs. Janet Dudding 42.5% HD 28 (Fort Bend): Gary Gates * 55.6% vs.
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