Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity
piero scaruffi www.scaruffi.com October 2014 - Revised 2016
"The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it" (Chinese proverb) Piero Scaruffi
• piero scaruffi [email protected] [email protected]
Olivetti AI Center, 1987 Piero Scaruffi
• Cultural Historian • Cognitive Scientist • Blogger • Poet • www.scaruffi.com
www.scaruffi.com 3 This is Part 1
• See http://www.scaruffi.com/singular for the index of this Powerpoint presentation and links to the other parts 1. Classic A.I. - The Age of Expert Systems 2. The A.I. Winter and the Return of Connectionism 3. Theory: Knowledge-based Systems and Neural Networks 4. Robots 5. Bionics 6. Singularity 7. Critique 8. The Future 9. Applications 10. Machine Art 11. The Age of Deep Learning 12. Natural Language Processing www.scaruffi.com 4 Classic A.I. The Age of Expert Systems
www.scaruffi.com 5 A Brief History of Logic
George Boole's "The Laws Of Thought" (1854): the laws of logic “are” the laws of thought Propositional logic and predicate logic: true/false!
6 A Brief History of Logic
Axiomatization of Thought: Gottlob Frege's "Foundations of Arithmetic" (1884) Giuseppe Peano's "Arithmetices Principia Nova Methodo Exposita" (1889) Bertrand Russell's "Principia Mathematica" (1903)
7 A Brief History of Logic
• David Hilbert (1928) – Entscheidungsproblem problem: the mechanical procedure for proving mathematical theorems – An algorithm, not a formula – Mathematics = blind manipulation of symbols – Formal system = a set of axioms and a set of inference rules The Cultural Context
• 1910-1950 Everything changed: – Everyday life – The foundations of science – The concept of art – The geopolitical order
9 The 1910s
• Electricity • Regriferator • Automobile • Airlane • Telegraph • Telephone • Phonograph • Camera • Cinema • Radio • Typewriter • Calculator • Skyscraper 10 • Plastic You are and You are a you are not Everything formula is relative
You are just You are a a reflex probability
Everything is moving away from you
Everything is uncertain
11 The emancipation of the dissonance
History is a nightmare from which I am trying to awake.
12 There will always Your mind Truth is an be something you creates reality opinion cannot prove
Life and machines Mind is a obey the same symbol laws of nature processor
Everything comes from just Everything is one point information 13 Cultural Context
• Bottom line: – Nonconformism – Anxiety – Noise – Freedom
14 Cultural Context
• World War II (1939-45) • The Holocaust • Hiroshima • Disintegration of the British Empire • Rise of the USA and Soviet Union
15 Alan Turing
• Hilbert’s challenge (1928): an algorithm capable of solving all the mathematical problems • Turing Machine (1936): a machine whose behavior is determined by a sequence of symbols and whose behavior determines the sequence of symbols • A universal Turing machine (UTM) is a Turing machine that can simulate an arbitrary Turing machine
16 Alan Turing
• Alan Turing (1936) – Universal Turing Machine: a Turing machine that is able to simulate any other Turing machine – The universal Turing machine reads the description of the specific Turing machine to be simulated
Turing Machine Alan Turing
(BTW, the halting problem is undecidable, i.e. Hilbert’s Entscheidungsproblem is impossible)
18 Alan Turing • Turing machines in nature: the ribosome, which translates RNA into proteins – Genetic alphabet: nucleotides ("bases"): A, C, G, U – The bases are combined in groups of 3 to form "codons“ – RNA is composed of a string of nucleotides ("bases") according to certain rules – There are special carrier molecules ("tRNA") that are attached to specific aminoacids (proteins) – The start codon encodes the aminoacid Methionine – A codon is matched with a specific tRNA – The new aminoacid is attached to the protein – The tape then advances 3 bases to the next codon, and the process repeats – The protein keeps growing – When the “stop” codon is encountered, the ribosome dissociates from the mRNA Alan Turing
• World War II:
– Breaking the Enigma code (Bombe) Replica of the Bombe – Turing worked at Bletchley Park where the Colossus was built but it was not a universal Turing machine (not general purpose)
20 The Turing Century
• Can you name any achievement of the last 50 years (from the Moon landing to animal cloning) that would have happened even without programmable computers?
21 The Turing Century
• Are thinking machines possible?
1934: 17 years before the first commercial computer
22 Electronic Brains
• 1941: Konrad Zuse's Z3 programmable electromechanical computer, the first Turing- complete machine • 1943: Tommy Flowers and others build the Colossus, the world's first programmable digital electronic computer
23 Electronic Brains
• 1944: Howard Aiken of IBM unveils the first computer programmed by punched paper tape, the electromechanical Harvard Mark I
• 1945: John Von Neumann, John Mauchly and Presper Eckert design a computer that holds its own instructions, the "stored-program architecture"
24 Electronic Brains
1945: John Von Neumann's computer architecture •Separation of instructions and data (although both are sequences of 0s and 1s) •Sequential processing
Control unit: •reads an instruction from memory •interprets/executes the instruction •signals the other components what to do 25 Electronic Brains
1946: The first non-military computer, ENIAC, or "Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer", is unveiled, built by John Mauchly and Presper Eckert at the University of Pennsylvania
26 Electronic Brains
Computation
The first book on electronic computers (1949)
27 Electronic Brains
• Apr 1949: The Manchester Mark 1, the first stored-program electronic computer • May 1949: Cambridge's EDSAC, the second stored-program electronic computer • Aug 1949: Philadelphia's EDVAC, the third stored-program electronic computer • 1950: The Pilot ACE computer
28 Electronic Brains
• May 1950: The first stored-program electronic computer to be deployed in the USA, the SEAC, and the first to use semiconductors instead of vacuum tubes • Feb 1951: The Ferranti Mark 1, the first commercial computer, an evolution of the EDSAC • 1952: A Univac 1 correctly predicts that Eisenhower would win the elections
29 Electronic Brains
• Goldstine and Eckert with the electronics needed to store a single decimal digit
(Computer History Museum, Mountain View) 30 Electronic Brains
Computer programmers of 1951: Patsy Simmers (holding an ENIAC board) Gail Taylor (holding an EDVAC board), Milly Beck (holding an ORDVAC board), Norma Stec (holding a BRLESC-I board)
31 Electronic Brains
1954: IBM's first “mass-produced” computer, the 650 (1,800 units sold - $200-400,000 each)
32 Electronic Brains
Documentary of 1958 Science-fiction tales of 1954
33 Electronic Brains
• USA/ Semiconductors – 1947: AT&T's Bell Labs invent the transistor (William Shockley, John Bardeen, Walter Brattain) – 1949: The USA files an antitrust lawsuit against AT&T – 1952: AT&T's symposium on the transistor, open to everybody – 1954: Texas Instruments introduces the first commercial transistor – 1954: The first transistor radio (“Regency”)
34 Electronic Brains
• USA/ Semiconductors – 1961: Texas Instruments introduces the first commercial integrated circuit – Military and space applications use the integrated circuit – 1965: Gordon Moore predicts that the processing power of computers will double Jack Kilby’s I.C. every 18 months – 1971: Intel invents the microprocessor – Universities are irrelevant in semiconductor progress because the manufacturing process is too costly – Universities are crucial for progress in computers Intel 4004 35 Electronic Brains
The future of your brain is coming faster than your brain can think…
36 Electronic Brains
Software • 1958: Jim Backus (at IBM) invents the FORTRAN programming language, the first machine- independent language • 1964: IBM introduces the first "operating system" for computers (the OS/360) • 1968: The Arpanet is established based on Baran’s idea (four nodes: UCLA, Stanford Research Institute, UCSB, University of Utah) • 1969: the Unix operating system is born
37 Electronic Brains
Democratizing technology • Antitrust policies contribute to the rapid diffusion of intellectual property throughout the computer and semiconductor industries • 1956: IBM and AT&T settle antitrust suits by licensing their technologies to competitors • 1969: The “unbundling” of software by IBM creates the software industry
38 Cybernetics
The Steam Engine • Biggest impact on daily life since the printing press • Inventors are ordinary people, not academics • The automation of manufacturing begins in Lancashire, not at a university
James Watt (1776) Cybernetics • Mathematician Norbert Wiener, physiologist Arturo Rosenblueth and engineer Julian Bigelow: "Behavior, Purpose and Teleology" (1943) Cybernetics • Warren McCulloch's and Walter Pitts‘ binary neuron (1943) Cybernetics • Macy Conference on Cybernetics (March 1946, New York) – John von Neumann (computer science) – Rafael Lorente de No (neurophysiology) – Norbert Wiener (mathematics) – Arturo Rosenblueth (physiology) – Warren McCulloch (neuropsychiatry) – Gregory Bateson (anthropology) – Margaret Mead (anthropology) – Walter Pitts (mathematics) – Ralph Gerard (neurophysiology) – Heinrich Kluever (psychology) – Lawrence Frank (sociology) – Molly Harrower (psychology) – Lawrence Kubie (psychoanalysis) – Filmer Northrop (philosophy) – Paul Lazarsfeld (sociology) Cybernetics
Norbert Wiener (1947) • Bridge between machines and nature, between "artificial" systems and natural systems • Feedback, by sending back the output as input, helps control the proper functioning of the machine • A control system is realized by a loop of action and feedback • A control system is capable of achieving a "goal", is capable of "purposeful" behavior • Living organisms are control systems Computational Neuroscience
1947: Kacy Cole’s voltage clamp technique 1952: Alan Hodgkin and Andrew Huxley: computational model of a spiking neuron 1962: Wilfrid Rall simulates a dendritic arbor 1963: Donald Perkel simulates the working of the neuron The Turing Test
1950: Alan Turing's "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" (the "Turing Test")
45 The Turing Test
The Turing Test (1950) • Hide a human in a room and a machine in another room and type them questions: if you cannot find out which one is which based on their answers, then the machine is intelligent
46 The Turing Test
The “Turing point”: a computer can be said to be intelligent if its answers are indistinguishable from the answers of a human being
? ?
47 Disembodied Intelligence
• What Turing and Wiener did – Removed the body from intelligence – Intelligence has to do with manipulating, transmitting, information – Intelligence is independent of the material substrate – They did not interpret machines as humans, but humans as (information-processing) machines – They moved humans closer to machines, not machines closer to humans
48 Fear of the Technocracy
Wright Mills: "The Power Elite" (1956) Jacques Ellul: "The Technological Society" (1964) Herbert Marcuse: "One-dimensional Man" (1964) John Kenneth Galbraith: "The New Industrial State" (1967) Lewis Mumford: "The Myth of the Machine" (1967) Theodore Roszak: "The Making of a Counterculture" (1969) Charles Reich: "The Greening of America" (1970)
49 Before Artificial Intelligence
• 1949: Warren Weaver's "Translation" memorandum • 1950: Claude Shannon's "Programming a Computer for Playing Chess" • 1951: AI programs at Manchester on the Ferranti Mark: – A draughts-playing program by Christopher Strachey – A chess-playing program by Dietrich Prinz
50 Before Artificial Intelligence
• 1951: Calculating Machines and Human Thought (Paris) • 1952: First International Conference on Machine Translation organized by Yehoshua Bar-Hillel • 1954: Demonstration of a machine- translation system by Leon Dostert's team at Georgetown University and Cuthbert Hurd's team at IBM, possibly the first non-numerical application of a digital Wiener playing with computer Torres y Quevedo’s automaton
51 Before Artificial Intelligence
• 1954: Wesley Clark and Belmont Farley build the first computer simulation of a neural network • 1955: The Western Joint Computer Conference with papers by Newell, Selfridge, Clark, etc
52 Before Artificial Intelligence
1954: Demonstration of a machine- translation system by Leon Dostert's team at Georgetown University and Cuthbert Hurd's team at IBM
53 Before Artificial Intelligence
Mathematical models of the brain (Britain) • William Grey-Walter’s Elmer and Elsie (1948)
• Ross Ashby’s homeostat (1948)
• Alan Turing’s “Intelligent Machinery” (1948) • Ross Ashby’s “Design for a Brain” (1952)
54 Before Artificial Intelligence
The Ratio Club (1949-55)
55 Before Artificial Intelligence
Mathematical models of the brain (Britain) • Jack Allanson (1956)
• Raymond Beurle (1956)
• Pete Uttley (1956)
56 Before Artificial Intelligence
Algorithms • 1933: principal component analysis (Harold Hotelling )
• 1944: logistic regression (Joseph Berkson) Kolmogorov Robbins • 1950: probability theory (Andrei Kolmogorov) • 1951: the "k-nearest-neighbors" classifier (Evelyn Fix and Joseph Hodges) • 1951: stochastic gradient descent (Herbert Robbins) • 1953: the first Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the “Metropolis algorithm” (Marshall & Arianna Rosenbluth) • 1957: Dynamic Programming" (Richard
Bellman) Bellman • 1957: k-means clustering (Stuart Lloyd) 57 Before Artificial Intelligence
Algorithms • Gradient methods
58 Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence? • Definitions! – When does Computer Science become Artificial Intelligence? – When does Automation become AI? – When does technology become AI? – What is the difference between an algorithm and an AI algorithm? – What is “intelligence”? – What is “artificial”?
Artificial Intelligence
• A.I. = All the technologies needed for a machine to pass the Turing Test that could not de facto be implemented on a Von Neumann architecture: speech recognition, computer vision, natural language processing, reasoning, learning, common sense…
61 Artificial Intelligence
• What is Human Intelligence? • What is Animal Intelligence? • What is Machine Intelligence? • How do we compare Human, Animal and Machine intelligences?
62 A.I. (well, not really) • Science fiction – Isaac Asimov’s I Robot (1940- 50) – Robert Wise’s “The Day the Earth Stood Still” (1951) – Groff Conklin's "Science Fiction - Thinking Machines” (1954) – Forbidden Planet (1956)
63 The two schools of A.I.
Artificial Intelligence (1956) • Knowledge-based approach uses mathematical logic to simulate the human mind
• Neural-net approach simulates the structure of the brain
64 The #1 factor: Moore’s Law
The future of your brain is coming faste than your brain can think…
65 Artificial Intelligence
1956: Allen Newell and Herbert Simon demonstrate the "Logic Theorist“, the first A.I. program, that uses “heuristics” (rules of thumb) and proves 38 of the 52 theorems in Whitehead’s and Russell’s “Principia Mathematica” 1957: “General Problem Solver” (1957): a generalization of the Logic Theorist but now a model of human cognition
66 Artificial Intelligence
1956: Ray Solomonoff's inductive inference engine
67 Artificial Intelligence
1957: Frank Rosenblatt's Perceptron, the first artificial neural network
68 Artificial Intelligence
1957: Frank Rosenblatt's Perceptron, the first artificial neural network
69 Artificial Intelligence
1957: Frank Rosenblatt's Perceptron Running on a $2,000,000 IBM 704 and only capable of learning the difference between right and left
70 Artificial Intelligence
1957: Noam Chomsky's "Syntactic Structures"
S stands for Sentence, NP for Noun Phrase, VP for Verb Phrase, Det for Determiner, Aux for Auxiliary (verb), N for Noun, and V for Verb stem 71 Artificial Intelligence
Zellig Harris • 1952 Discourse Analysis • 1959 The first parser (for the Transformations and Discourse Analysis Project or TDAP)
72 Artificial Intelligence
1957: Richard Bellman ‘s Dynamic Programming
73 Artificial Intelligence
1958: Yehoshua Bar-Hillel's "proof" that machine translation is impossible without common-sense knowledge
74 Artificial Intelligence
1959: John McCarthy's "Programs with Common Sense" focuses on knowledge representation 1959: Arthur Samuel's Checkers, the world's first self-learning program 1960: Hilary Putnam's Computational Functionalism 1962: Joseph Engelberger deploys the industrial robot Unimate at General Motors
75 Artificial Intelligence
The backpropagation algorithm
Arthur Bryson 1961 Henry Kelley 1960 Stuart Dreyfus 1962 Seppo Linnainmaa 1970 Paul Werbos 1974
76 Artificial Intelligence
The backpropagation algorithm
Equivalently in matrix-vector language:
Source: Andrew Ng
77 Artificial Intelligence
1963: The birth of computer vision (Lawrence Roberts)
78 Artificial Intelligence
1964: Peter Toma demonstrates the machine-translation system Systran 1964: IBM's "Shoebox" for speech recognition
79 Artificial Intelligence
1965: Jack Good speculates about "ultraintelligent machines" (the "singularity") 1965: Herbert Simon predicts that "Machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do" 1965: Hubert Dreyfus's "Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence"
80 Artificial Intelligence
1965: Ed Feigenbaum's Dendral expert system: domain-specific knowledge
81 Artificial Intelligence
1965: Lofti Zadeh’s Fuzzy Logic
1966: Ross Quillian's semantic networks
1966: ALPAC report on Machine Translation
82 Artificial Intelligence
1966: Joe Weizenbaum's chatbot Eliza
83 Artificial Intelligence
1965: Alexey Ivakhnenko publishes the first learning algorithms for multi-layered networks
1966: Leonard Baum popularizes the Hidden Markov Model ("Statistical Inference for Probabilistic Functions of Finite State Markov Chains")
84
Artificial Intelligence
1969: Marvin Minsky & Samuel Papert's "Perceptrons" kills neural networks 1971: Noam Chomsky’s article against Skinner’s behaviorism
85 Artificial Intelligence
Why nobody argued • Pitts died in May 1969 • McCullouch died in September 1969 • Rosenblatt died in 1971
86 The two schools of AI
1956: Allen Newell and Herbert Simon’s "Logic Theorist“ 1959: John McCarthy's "Programs with Common Sense" 1965: Ed Feigenbaum's Dendral 1965: Lofti Zadeh’s Fuzzy Logic 1966: Ross Quillian's Semantic Networks 1969: SRI's Shakey the Robot 1969: Roger Schank’s Conceptual Dependency Theory 1972: Bruce Buchanan's MYCIN 1972: Terry Winograd's SHRDLU 1974: Marvin Minsky's Frame 87 The first IJCAI: 1969
Only 2 papers on neural networks!
88 Artificial Intelligence
1969: Cordell Green's automatic synthesis of programs 1969: Stanford Research Institute's Shakey the Robot 1969: Roger Schank’s Conceptual Dependency Theory
89 Neuroscience
1949: Donald Hebb's cell assemblies (selective strengthening or inhibition of synapses causes the brain to organize itself into regions of self-reinforcing neurons - the strength of a connection depends on how often it is used) 1951: Wilder Penfield and Herbert Jasper prove that electrical stimulation of the temporal lobes can yield vivid recall of lost memories 1952: Paul Maclean discovers the "limbic system" 1952: Alan Hodgkin and Andrew Huxley discover how action potentials in neurons are propagated 1953: John Eccles describes excitatory and inhibitory potentials 1953: Roger Sperry studies the "split brain" in animals 1953: Eugene Aserinsky discovers "rapid eye movement" (REM) sleep that corresponds with periods of dreaming
90 Neuroscience
1957: Vernon Mountcastle discovers the modular organization of the brain (vertical columns) 1962: Roger Sperry and Michael Gazzaniga discover that the two hemispheres of the human brain are specialized in different functions 1962: David Hubel and Torsten Wiesel study the visual cortex of the cat 1964: John Young proposes a "selectionist" theory of the brain 1964: Paul Maclean's triune brain: three layers, each layer corresponding to a different stage of evolution 1964: Benjamin Libet discovers that the readiness potential precedes conscious awareness by about half a second 1968: Niels Jerne's selectionist model of the brain
91 Cognitive Science
1952: Jerome Bruner’s Cognition Project (Harvard) 1956: Herb Simon and Al Newell’s Logic Theorist (CMU) 1957: Noam Chomsky’s “Syntactic Structures” (MIT) 1960: Geroge Miller’s and Jerome Bruner’s Center for Cognitive Studies (Harvard) 1960: “Plans and the Structure of Behavior “by George Miller, Eugene Galanter, and Karl Pribram (Harvard) 1963: Ed Feigenbaum and Julian Feldman’s Computers and Throught" (UC Berkeley) 1965: Donald Michie's Experimental Programming Unit (Edinburgh) 1965: George Mandler’s Center for Human Information Processing (UCSD)
92 Cognitive Science
1967: Ulric Neisser’s “Cognitive Psychology” (University of Pennsylvania) 1972: Don Norman’s and Peter Lindsay’s "Human Information Processing" (UCSD) 1972: Newell & Simon’s “Human Problem Solving” (CMU)
93 Artificial Intelligence
1971: Ingo Rechenberg publishes his thesis "Evolution Strategies", a set of optimization methods for evolutionary computation 1972: Harry Klopf's "Brain Function and Adaptive Systems"
94 Artificial Intelligence
1972: Bruce Buchanan's MYCIN
•a knowledge base •a patient database •a consultation/explanation program •a knowledge acquisition program
Knowledge is organised as a series of IF THEN rules 95 Artificial Intelligence
1972: Terry Winograd's Shrdlu
96 Artificial Intelligence
1972: Kenneth Colby’s chatbot Parry The first chatbot to chatbot conversation (Stanford ran Parry and MIT ran Eliza over the Arpanet)
ELIZA: Tell me your problems. Please terminate input with a period or a question mark. PARRY: People get on my nerves sometimes. ELIZA: I am not sure I understand you fully. PARRY: You should pay more attention. ELIZA: Suppose you should pay more attention. PARRY: You’re entitled to your own opinion. ELIZA: What makes you think I am entitled to my own opinion? PARRY: It bothers me just to be around people in general. ELIZA: Please go on. PARRY: I went to the track at Bay Meadows a while back. ELIZA: What does that suggest to you? PARRY: I went to the races. 97 Artificial Intelligence 1972: Hubert Dreyfus's "What Computers Can't Do“ 1973: Jim Baker applies the Hidden Markov Model to speech recognition 1973: The Lighthill Report kills AI in Britain 1974: Marvin Minsky's Frame (see chapter on “Cognition”) 1975: Roger Schank's Script (see chapter on “Cognition”) 1975: John Holland's Genetic Algorithms
98 Artificial Intelligence Fuzzy Inference Systems • Zadeh's "Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes" (1973) • Ebrahim "Abe" Mamdani 1975 • Yahachiro Tsukamoto 1979 • Michio Sugeno 1985
99 Artificial Intelligence
1978: John McDermott's expert system R1/XCON 1978: Ryszard Michalski builds the first practical system that learns from examples, AQ11 1978: David Marr's theory of vision
100 Artificial Intelligence
1979: Johan DeKleer's qualitative reasoning 1979: Hans Berliner's BKG 9.8 at Carnegie-Mellon University (connected by satellite to the robot Gammonoid) beats the world champion of backgammon in Monte Carlo
101 Speech Recognition
1968: Taras Vintsiuk’s dynamic time warping to recognize words spoken at different speeds 1969 Raj Reddy’s speech-recognition group at CMU: – Harpy (Bruce Lowerre 1976), – Hearsay-II (Rick Hayes-Roth, Lee Erman, Victor Lesser and Richard Fennell, 1975); – Dragon (Jim Baker, 1975)
102 Speech Recognition
1976: Fred Jelinek's statistical method predicts statistically the next word
103 Speech Recognition
1980: Jack Ferguson's "Blue Book“ popularizes statistical methods based on the Hidden Markov Model IBM (Fred Jelinek) vs Bell Labs (Lawrence Rabiner) speaker-dependent vs speaker-independent
104 Neural Networks
1969: Bryson and Yu-Chi Ho’s gradient method 1970: Seppo Linnainmaa 1970: Pete Uttley‘s Informon 1972: James Anderson 1972: Teuveo Kohonen 1973: Christoph von der Malsburg 1974: Paul Werbos’ backpropagation 1975: Kunihiko Fukushima’s Cognitron 1975: Stephen Grossberg’s adaptive resonance theory 1978: Shunichi Amari
105 Artificial Intelligence
1980: John Searle’s "Chinese Room" 1980: Intellicorp, the first major start-up for Artificial Intelligence 1982: Japan's Fifth Generation Computer Systems project
106 Artificial Intelligence
1980s: Second A.I. bubble 1982: Japan's Fifth Generation Computer Systems project 1984: Doug Lenat’s Cyc to catalog common sense 1988: Hans Moravec in "Mind Children" (1988): "robots will eventually succeed us: humans clearly face extinction".
107 A.I. Winters
1957: Herbert Simon declares that "there are now in the world machines that think, that learn, and that create" 1958: A New York Times article (8 July 1958) reporting a press conference by Rosenblatt that “the Perceptron is the embryo of an electronic computer that (the US Navy) expects will be able to walk, talk, see, write, reproduce itself and be conscious of its existence" 1958: Bar-Hillel publishes a "proof" that machine translation is impossible 1965: Herbert Simon predicts that “machines will be capable within 20 years of doing any work a man can do" 1966: The ALPAC Report causes reduction in funding for machine translation research 108 A.I. Winters
1970: Marvin Minsky to Life Magazine: “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being” 1972: Richard Karp shows there are many problems that can probably only be solved in exponential time
1973: The Lighthill Report kills A.I. in the UK
1980s: Fifth Generation illusion
109 A.I. Winters
Limited knowledge of the world: Restricted to micro-worlds (e.g. Blocks World) Restricted to pattern-matching (e.g. Eliza) Inherent limitations of computability: Intractability, combinatorial explosion Undecidability: the halting problem
110 What saved A.I.
Neuroscience: Fukushima’s convolutional nets
Physics: Hopfield’s recurrent neural networks
Canada: CIFAR (Canadian Institute for Advanced Research) Vannoccio Biringuccio‘s “De la Pirotechnia” (1540, first printed book on metallurgy published in Europe) 111 Next…
• See http://www.scaruffi.com/singular for the index of this Powerpoint presentation and links to the other parts
www.scaruffi.com 112