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Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition This Report Is Being Disseminated by the U.S

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Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition This Report Is Being Disseminated by the U.S Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition This report is being disseminated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). As such, this document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for fiscal year 2001 (public law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by DOE. Though this report does not constitute “influential” information, as that term is defined in DOE’s information quality guidelines or the Office of Management and Budget’s Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review, the study was reviewed both internally and externally prior to publication. For purposes of external review, the study benefited from the advice and comments of 11 industry stakeholders, U.S. Government employees, and national laboratory staff. NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at SciTech Connect: http://www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 OSTI: http://www.osti.gov Phone: 865.576.8401 Fax: 865.576.5728 Email: [email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5301 Shawnee Road Alexandria, VA 22312 NTIS: http://www.ntis.gov Phone: 800.553.6847 or 703.605.6000 Fax: 703.605.6900 Email: [email protected] ii Land-Based Wind Market Report Preparation and Authorship This report was prepared by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for the Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Corresponding authors of the report are: Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The full author list includes: Ryan Wiser, Mark Bolinger, Ben Hoen, Dev Millstein, Joe Rand, Galen Barbose, Naïm Darghouth, Will Gorman, Seongeun Jeong, Andrew Mills, and Ben Paulos. iii Land-Based Wind Market Report Acknowledgments For their support of this ongoing report series, the authors thank the entire U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office team. In particular, we acknowledge Patrick Gilman and Robert Marlay. For reviewing elements of this report or providing key input, we also thank: Christopher Namovicz, Manussawee Sukunta, and Richard Bowers (U.S. Energy Information Administration); Andrew David (U.S. International Trade Commission); Charlie Smith (Energy Systems Integration Group); Feng Zhao (Global Wind Energy Council); David Milborrow (consultant); Anjelaka Stolte (Boston Consulting Group); Matt McCabe (Clear Wind); Eric Lantz (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL); Kelsey Bartz, Brendan Casey, and John Hensley (American Clean Power Association); and Patrick Gilman and Gage Reber (DOE). For providing data that underlie aspects of the report, we thank the U.S. Energy Information Administration, BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie, Global Wind Energy Council, and the American Clean Power Association. Thanks also to Donna Heimiller (NREL) for assistance in mapping wind resource quality; Amy Howerton and Carol Laurie (NREL), and Liz Hartman, Coryne Tasca, and Kaitlyn Roach (DOE) for assistance with layout, formatting, production, and communications. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s contributions to this report were funded by the Wind Energy Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the DOE under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein. iv Land-Based Wind Market Report List of Acronyms ACP American Clean Power Association BNEF BloombergNEF BPA Bonneville Power Administration CAISO California Independent System Operator COD commercial operation date CCA community choice aggregator DOE U.S. Department of Energy EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas FAA Federal Aviation Administration FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GE General Electric Corporation GW gigawatt HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule IOU investor-owned utility IPP independent power producer ISO independent system operator ISO-NE New England Independent System Operator ITC investment tax credit kV kilovolt kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour LCOE levelized cost of energy m2 square meter MISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NYISO New York Independent System Operator O&M operations and maintenance OEM original equipment manufacturer PJM PJM Interconnection POU publicly owned utility PPA power purchase agreement PTC production tax credit v Land-Based Wind Market Report REC renewable energy certificate RPS renewables portfolio standard RTO regional transmission organization SGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SPP Southwest Power Pool W watt WAPA Western Area Power Administration WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council vi Land-Based Wind Market Report Executive Summary Wind power capacity additions in the United States hit a new record in 2020, supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—as well as a myriad of state-level policies. Improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies have also driven wind capacity additions, yielding low-priced wind energy for utility, corporate, and other power purchasers. Key findings from this year’s Land-Based Wind Market Report—which primarily focuses on land-based, utility-scale wind—include: Installation Trends • Wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 16,836 MW of new capacity added in the United States and $24.6 billion invested. Cumulative wind capacity grew to 121,985 megawatts (MW). In addition, 3,087 MW of existing wind plants were partially repowered in 2020, mostly by upgrading rotors and major nacelle components of existing turbines. • Wind power represented the largest source of U.S. electric-generating capacity additions in 2020. Wind power constituted 42% of all capacity additions in 2020. Over the last decade, wind represented 29% of total U.S. capacity additions, and an even larger fraction of new capacity in SPP (75%), ERCOT (54%), MISO (52%), and the non-ISO West (32%). [See Figure 1 for regional definitions]. • Globally, the United States ranked second in annual wind capacity additions in 2020, but remained well behind the market leaders in wind energy penetration. Global wind additions hit a record in 2020, with nearly 93 GW of newly added capacity, yielding a cumulative total 743 GW. The United States remained the second-leading market in terms of annual and cumulative capacity, behind China. A number of countries have achieved high levels of wind penetration, with wind supplying nearly 50% of Denmark’s total electricity generation in 2020, and between 25% and 40% in Ireland, Germany, the U.K, and Portugal. In the United States, wind supplied 8.3% of total electricity generation in 2020. • Texas installed the most capacity in 2020 with 4,137 MW, while sixteen states exceeded 10% wind energy penetration as a fraction of total in-state generation. Texas also remained the clear leader on a cumulative basis, with 32,686 MW of capacity. Notably, the wind capacity installed in Iowa supplied 57% of all in-state electricity generation in 2020, while Kansas (43%), Oklahoma (35%), South Dakota (33%) and North Dakota (31%) were all above 30% by this metric. Within independent system operators (ISOs), 2020 wind penetration (expressed as a percentage of load) was 31.3% in SPP, 22.7% in ERCOT, 11.0% in MISO, 6.6% CAISO, 3.4% in the PJM, 3.0% in ISO-NE, and 2.9% in NYISO. • A small but growing number of hybrid plants that pair wind with storage and other resources are operating in the United States. There were 38 hybrid wind power plants in operation at the end of 2020, representing 2.3 GW of wind and 0.9 GW of co-located assets. The most common wind hybrid project combines wind and storage technology, where 1.4 GW of wind has been paired with 0.2 GW of battery storage (14% storage to generator ratio). The average storage duration of these projects is 0.6 hours, suggesting a focus on ancillary services and limited capacity to shift large amounts of energy across time. • Despite a slight contraction since 2018, substantial wind power capacity exists in transmission interconnection queues; solar and storage reached new highs in 2020. At the end of 2020, there were 209 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity seeking transmission interconnection, including 61 GW of offshore wind. In 2020, 55 GW of wind capacity entered interconnection queues, 10 GW of which are proposed as hybrid configurations. Energy storage interconnection requests have increased in recent years, both for stand-alone and hybrid plants, most-often pairing solar with storage. The SPP, West (non-ISO), and NYISO regions had the greatest quantity of wind in their queues at the end of 2020. Nearly half of all wind capacity added to interconnection queues in 2020 was for offshore wind plants. vii Land-Based Wind Market Report Industry Trends • GE and Vestas supplied turbines for 87% of U.S. wind power capacity installed in 2020. In 2020, GE captured 53% of the U.S. market for turbine installations, followed by Vestas at 34% and Siemens- Gamesa Renewable Energy (SGRE) at 9%, Nordex at 3%, and Goldwind with 1%.
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