Weather Briefing November 12, 2015 6:00 AM

National Weather Service US Detroit/Pontiac Michigan Detroit/Pontiac, MI @NWSDetroit http://www.weather.gov/dtx Email: [email protected] Strong Expected Strongest Winds Today, Still Windy Friday

Forecast Gusts Expected Thursday How strong will winds get Thursday? Wind Speeds: Sustained 20 to 30 mph. • Gusts up to 60 mph along/south of I-69 corridor. • Gusts 40-50 mph Saginaw Valley and Northern Thumb. Direction: Southwest When on Thursday? Through this evening

Why will this happen? A low pressure system and cold front will bring a long period of windy weather Thursday and Friday. Very Gusts 45 to 60 mph through the evening strong winds are expected Thursday, especially along and south of I-69.

weather.gov/detroit Strong Winds Expected Wind-Related Weather Headlines for Today

*HIGH WIND WARNING AND THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING *LAKESHORE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING

LAND MARINE HAZARDS HAZARDS (USA ONLY)

Wind Advisory Lakeshore Flood Warning High Wind Warning Warning Storm Watch High Wind Watch Low Water Advisory Weather Briefing Probability of Strong Wind Gusts: Detroit

High potential for gusts to 50 mph. High potential for gusts to 30 mph.

High potential for gusts to 40 mph.

Low-medium potential for gusts to 60 mph.

Start This morning Peak Late morning-evening End Strongest winds end this evening, but it will remain fairly windy through Friday. Probability for Strong Wind Gusts in the Detroit Area Weather Briefing Probability of Strong Wind Gusts: Flint

High potential for gusts to 40 mph. High potential for gusts to 30 mph.

Medium potential for gusts to 50 mph.

Start This morning Peak Late morning-evening End Strongest winds end this evening, but it will remain fairly windy through Friday. Probability for Strong Wind Gusts in the Flint Area Weather Briefing Strong Winds Will Cause Lakeshore Flooding

LAKESHORE for St. Clair County

Recent Water Levels Lake St. Clair: 30 inches above chart datum Impacts Strong southwest winds will pile up water over the north half of Lake St. Clair. The rise in water levels combined with waves of 2-3 feet will cause flooding along the lakeshore as water levels rise above the flood stage of 55 inches above chart datum.

Lakeshore Flood Warning Event Summary: Strong Winds Strongest Winds Thursday, Still Windy Friday What Long-duration of windy conditions Thursday and Friday. Strongest winds are expected Thursday, especially along and south of I-69.

Direction: Southwest Thursday. Sustained Speeds (Thursday): 20-30 mph. Gusts (Thursday): Up to 60 mph along/south of I-69, 40-50 mph Saginaw Valley and Northern Thumb. When Thursday and Friday. Highest speeds Thursday. Where All of Southeast Michigan Forecast High confidence with gusts 45-60 mph Thursday. Confidence High confidence with gusts to 40 mph Friday. Winds of this • Downed power lines speed may • Large tree limbs falling cause: • Loose objects blown around • Driving difficulties, especially high profile vehicles • Flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in St. Clair County, including Harsens Island Storm Recovery Forecast After the Storm

• Windy conditions continue through Friday evening, with gusts up to 40 mph. • Wind chills remaining in the 30s Friday. Forecast • Numerous rain/snow showers Friday, ending by evening. Highlights • Dry over the weekend. • Winds decrease for the weekend (10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph both Saturday and Sunday).

Forecast for the Detroit-Area weather.gov/detroit Additional Information

Current Watches, Warnings, Advisories http://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtxhazards

Great Lakes Marine Portal http://weather.gov/greatlakes

Michigan Weather Safety Information http://www.weather.gov/dtx/weather_preparedness

National Weather Safety Page http://www.weather.gov/safety

US National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI http://www.weather.gov/dtx @NWSDetroit Email: [email protected]

Marine Weather Briefing November 12, 2015 6:00 AM

National Weather Service US National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan Detroit/Pontiac, MI @NWSDetroit http://www.weather.gov/dtx Email: [email protected] Prolonged Period of Strong Winds Expected Today through Friday Night

How strong will winds get? MARINE HAZARDS (USA ONLY) Wind Speeds: Sustained 25 to 30 knots. Gusts to 50 knots for Lake St. Clair and Erie. Gusts 40 to 45 knots elsewhere. Direction: Southwest turning West When Today into Friday Night. Peak winds through this evening.

Why will this happen? A low pressure system and cold front will bring a prolonged period Small Craft Advisory Storm Warning of strong winds to Southeast Storm Watch Michigan. The strongest winds are Gale Watch Low Water Advisory expected Thursday. Marine Weather Briefing Central/Southern Lake Huron Wind Gusts at 4AM Friday Wave Heights at 4AM Friday 5 10 15

GALE WARNING in effect for CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HURON this morning-Friday Evening Winds and wave heights peaking over Central/Southern Huron Thursday afternoon-overnight Marine Weather Briefing Probability of Strong Wind Gusts: Southern Huron

High potential of gusts of 33 Knots.

Medium-High potential of gusts to 42 Knots.

Start develop this morning Peak This afternoon thru tonight End Gales end by Friday evening

Probabilistic Wind Forecast for Southern Lake Huron Marine Weather Briefing Lake St. Clair and Extreme Western Lake Erie

Wind Gusts at 4PM Today Wave Heights at 4PM Thursday

STORM WARNING in effect for LAKES ST CLAIR AND WESTERN ERIE Through this Evening Winds and wave heights peaking this afternoon-early evening Marine Weather Briefing Probability of Strong Wind Gusts: Western Erie

High potential of gusts to 42 Knots. High potential of gusts of 33 Knots.

Medium-High potential for gusts to 48 knots

Start Strong winds develop this morning Peak This morning through evening (STORM FORCE GUSTS) End Strongest winds end by this evening. Gales possible again Friday. Probabilistic Wind Forecast for Western Lake Erie Marine Weather Briefing Water Levels Strong winds will change water levels by pushing water to the downwind side of the lake. Lake Huron Lake Erie

Water level drops up to 2 feet over Southern Water level drops 5-6 feet over Western Lake Lake Huron by Thursday afternoon. Erie by Thursday evening. A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY. WESTERN LAKE ERIE. Weather Briefing Strong Winds Will Cause Lakeshore Flooding

LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING for St. Clair County

Recent Water Levels Lake St. Clair: 30 inches above chart datum Impacts Strong southwest winds will pile up water over the north half of Lake St. Clair. The rise in water levels combined with waves of 2-3 feet will cause flooding along the lakeshore as water levels rise above the flood stage of 55 inches above chart datum.

Lakeshore Flood Warning Marine Weather Briefing Event Summary (U.S. Waters Only)

What • Strong winds developing this morning and continuing into Friday • Peak gusts of 40 to 50 knots. • Strongest winds over West Lake Erie, Lake St Clair (Storm Force gusts) • Gales will continue into Friday for most of the area When This morning through Friday

Where Lake Huron, Western Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair

Forecast High confidence with wind gusts 40 to 50 knots Today. Confidence High confidence with gales Southern Lake Huron Friday, medium confidence elsewhere. Impacts from • Wave Heights up to 4 feet on Lake St. Clair Winds: • Wave Heights up to 7 feet on Western Lake Erie • Wave Heights up to 13 feet on Lake Huron • Low water conditions on both Western Lake Erie and Southern Lake Huron • Possible flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in St. Clair County, including Harsens Island Additional Information

Current Watches, Warnings, Advisories http://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtxhazards

Great Lakes Marine Portal http://weather.gov/greatlakes

National Data Buoy Center http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/?lat=44.805858&lon=- 83.723145&zoom=6&type=h&status=r&pgm=&op=&ls=false

National Weather Safety Page http://www.weather.gov/safety

US National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI http://www.weather.gov/dtx @NWSDetroit Email: [email protected]