Evaluating Marcus Mariota’s Heisman Chances

By: Nima Movassaghi

We’re halfway through the season and it’s already becoming difficult to find new adjectives to describe the play of Marcus Mariota. I know, I know; we all said the same thing at this point last year, and an injury would derail his chances. I will admit, it’s alarming that he’s already taken as many sacks this season, as he did the entire season last year, but rest assured, Mariota is a different player, and he may very well be on his way to winning the trophy.

Statistics

Statistics in the Heisman race have the same relevance as the GPA has when applying to an elite university—if the stats are above par, you have a shot. For Mariota, his stats have been on a different planet. His 19 passing , and no , accompanied by his 70 percent completion percentage is making voters drool. If he stays on his current path, he could possibly reach 35 touchdowns by the ceremony.

Given that he plays in a conference that doesn’t have much of a reputation for playing great defense, keeping the number of interceptions below 3 will be crucial for his chances. Even though his rushing numbers are a long ways from where they were last season (which is probably a good thing), he’s proven that when he needs to run, he will do so effectively. Right now, statistics should be the least of concerns; he’s putting up big numbers through the air every week. If he keeps it up, he will most likely win the “stats battle” in the Heisman race.

Character

Yeah, forget that. Not like any of the recent Heisman winners were making any positive impact in the community, and on campus….

Ability to Change a Game Completely

I can name several moments when Marcus Mariota changed the result of a game this season: The second half against Michigan State; he made several plays that ended up being the difference. The game at WSU; when all was going wrong, it was Mariota who rallied the troops and produced breathtaking plays, drive after drive. Finally, how about the game at UCLA? From the first play to the last play, he was the one player that UCLA had no answer for.

Marcus has changed the outcome of several games, simply because he’s often a different caliber player than most defenses are used to facing. With some tough opponents coming up, he’ll have the opportunity to confirm to voters that he is the best player in College Football.

Heisman Moments

Every Heisman winner has a “Heisman Moment.” Johnny Football beat Alabama on the road, fought off a 27-0 deficit at Alabama, and had a monstrous game against Clemson. How about Marcus?

Well, Michigan State could qualify, even though it may have been too early in the season to send a message. Washington State? Probably a similar situation as MSU. Perhaps bouncing back from the loss against Arizona with a win at UCLA? Maybe. One who is unbiased will say that he’s yet to have one, and that unbiased person will also that Dak Presscot has one, maybe even two of his own. There’s still opportunities, and he’s sure to have a Heisman moment—in fact, winning the PAC-12 title and making the playoffs would serve as a Heisman moment if all else fails to “qualify.”

A Heisman moment is essentially all that Mariota is lacking right now—that’s a scary thought because if Oregon continues to win, he gets an “automatic” Heisman moment for the reasons mentioned above.

Wins

Wins mean the most to Mariota—they probably mean the most to voters as well. He used his “get out of jail free” card after the loss to Arizona (even though he played well). One more loss, and regardless of his performance, he’s out: Bottom Line. Win out, and there should be no reason to award the trophy to someone else.

X Factor: The Stanford Game

As a reader, your first response is going to be that Stanford “sucks” and that they’re “not a test” for Oregon anymore. Fair enough, they’ve lost 3 games, and it’s interesting to think that with a loss at Oregon State, they may be on the verge of missing a bowl game. That’s not why this game matters. This game matters because Mariota has yet to beat Stanford. We’ll give him a pass on last year because of his knee injury, but this is it. Can he beat Stanford? Can he beat an NFL style defense when everything is on the line? If he can win that game, (it’s a given that he has to play well for Oregon to win) the Heisman is going to be his to lose.

Verdict

The race has not been decided yet—I still believe that we have to wait until after the first week in November to pick a true favorite. CFB shakes up in November, and controversy always settles itself; it’s been awhile since we didn’t know who was going to win the trophy on the day it was getting awarded. Contenders will lose games. Contenders will deal with adversity. It’s all part of the process.

However, if all goes well for Mariota, the trophy will be his. There’s not a clear way to stop him when he’s healthy. It’s hard to see the award in someone else’s hands if Mariota keeps up his level of play; it just seems impossible.

The ceremony is just under 8 weeks away; will it be Mariota? Presscot? Winston? Will someone else emerge? Time will tell, but Mariota has a real chance.