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Manhattan Market Report Q2 2014 by the numbers +0.2% Prices remain high amidst StreetEasy Condo Price Index (Quarter- constrained inventory, but price over-Quarter) appreciation slows in Q2 -0.9% StreetEasy Condo anhattan home prices remained percent of all available co-ops were priced Price Forecast (Month- well above last year’s level in the bottom tier, while just 9.1 percent over-Month) Mduring the second quarter of condos and 0.7 percent of townhouses of 2014 as this year’s spring trading were in the bottom tier. Conversely, the season failed to reverse a year-long majority of condo listings were in the top +10.5% trend of dwindling inventory. Although tier, with 61.3 percent of all condos listed Total Inventory the number of listings increased 10.5 in the top tier compared to 29.2 percent (Quarter-over-Quarter) percent over the quarter, total inventory of co-ops. remained nearly 8 percent below last Despite a recent uptick in inventory competition between buyers. and slowing of price growth, the +20.6% Manhattan market remains a challenging Still, prices showed signs of softening environment for buyers. With the median Number of Pending as price fatigue set in on buyers who days on market at just 49 days across all Sales (Quarter-over- have faced several years of robust housing types, buyers must act fast on a Quarter) price growth. The StreetEasy Condo home amid persistently high competition Price Index (SECPI) increased by just 0.2 among buyers. percent over the quarter - the slowest 49 days quarterly growth since the fourth The slowed price growth in the second Median Time on quarter of 2012. In another sign of quarter is fragile and greatly dependent Market softening prices, the share of all homes upon continued inventory growth, which listed that saw a price cut increased to is unlikely to happen in the traditionally 22 percent, up slightly from 20 percent slower summer months. Buyers should one year ago. not expect further price declines as long as there are not any meaningful increases $890,000 While price growth has softened across in inventory that get the market back to Median Sale Price all price points, Manhattan inventory historically normal levels. continues to be dominated by homes priced in the top - or most expensive - tier. More than 3 in 4 homes listed during StreetEasy is pleased to present the Quarterly the second quarter were priced in the Manhattan Real Estate Market Report, an in- $1,172 middle or top tiers with a price above depth analysis of New York City’s largest and most Median Price per .000,126$ po-oC sgnitsil detneserper comprehensive database of listings and sales. Square Foot To see more analysis on Manhattan real estate homes in the bottom tier - those that trends from StreetEasy, visit our market report are priced at less than $621,000. Forty page at: http://streeteasy.com/mark et/reports Source: STREET EASY Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q2 2014 Condo Price Index Condo prices soften as inventory edges up and price fatigue grows among Manhattan buyers. The StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI) increased slightly to over time. Given this methodology, the index is a much more 234 in June as home value growth slowed to just 0.2 percent reliable measure of sale prices as it controls for the variety of over the quarter. Home values are expected to depreciate as condos sold in a given month. The SECPI is indexed to January we enter the typically slugglish summer months, according to 2000 with a value of 100. the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast (SECPF), which predicts a 0.9 percent decline in prices in July 2014. The SECPF predicts the change in Manhattan condo prices one month out from the current reported period. In addition to The SECPI measures how prices are moving in the Manhattan incorporating historical SECPI values, the forecast considers condo real estate market. It is based on a repeat-sales StreetEasy’s comprehensive database of listing prices and days method, which compares the sale prices of the same property on market - two leading indicators of future condo prices. +0.2 % (234) -0.9 % (232) StreetEasy Condo Price Index StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast June 2014 (Quarter-over-Quarter) July 2014 (Month-over-Month) 250 219 30% Previous market peak March 2008 25% 200 20% 15% 179 150 Previous market trough 10% January 2010 5% 100 0% StreetEasy Condo Price Index Value -5% 50 -10% -15% SECPI Value Year over Year Change in SECPI 0 -20% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2 Source: STREET EASY Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q2 2014 Market Summary 1 Inventory Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013 Total Units Available 11,645 10,542 10.5% 12,641 -7.9% Bottom Tier 23.6% 24.2% - 26.7% - Middle Tier 29.2% 28.0% - 29.9% - Top Tier 47.2% 47.8% - 43.4% - Median Asking Price $1,235,000 $1,199,000 3.0% $1,045,000 18.2% Median Asking Price per sq. ft. $1,336 $1,300 2.8% $1,159 15.3% Share of Listings w/ Price Cut 22.0% 19.5% 19.8% Share of Listings w/ Price Increase 6.7% 7.7% 7.6% Recorded Sales 2 Total Sales 3,526 3,244 8.7% 4,331 -18.6% Median Sale Price $890,000 $880,000 1.1% $830,000 7.2% Pending Sales Total Pending Sales 3,516 2,915 20.6% 4,203 -16.3% Median Days on Market 49 63 63 Bottom Tier 50 70 66 Middle Tier 40 51 48 Top Tier 45 64 55 1 Inventory, sales, and pending sales data includes condo, co-op, and townhouse listings. 2 Sales data is based on sale transactions recorded by the New York City Department of Finance as of July 17, 2014. This may not represent all sale transactions for Q2 2014. Share of Manhattan homes Total Inventory by Price Tier 1 priced in the bottom tier continues to shrink 23.6% 29.2% 47.2% While total inventory in Manhattan increased by slightly more than 10 percent between Q2 2014 homes listed for sale in the bottom price 24.2% 28.0% 47.8% tier shrunk. Just one in four homes listed for sale during the second quarter was priced Q1 2014 at or below $621,000, this quarter’s price cut 26.7% 29.9% 43.4% Q2 2013 Bottom Tier Middle Tier Top Tier 1 Monthly inventory may not add up to 100% due to rounding. How is inventory measured? Quarterly inventory is the sum of all condo, co-op, and townhouse units that were available on StreetEasy at any point during the quarter. This method provides the most comprehensive picture of units that were available to buyers. How is days on market measured? The number of days from the original listing on StreetEasy to when it enters contract. After a buyer enters contract on a unit, it is pulled from the market and is no longer available to other buyers - creating a logical end point to “days on market.” 3 Source: STREET EASY Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q2 2014 Inventory Share of inventory priced in the bottom tier continues to shrink, highly-concentrated in Upper Manhattan neighborhoods. Neighborhood Inventory by Price Tier 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All Downtown The downtown Battery Park City market had the Chelsea highest proportion of Chinatown homes listed in the Civic Center top price tier. East Village 3 in 5 homes in the Financial District greater downtown Flatiron market were priced Fulton/Seaport above $1.3 million Gramercy Park in Q2 - making it Greenwich Village the most expensive Little Italy Lower East Side market in terms of Nolita proportion of homes in the top price tier. Soho Tribeca West Village All Midtown More than 9 in 10 Central Park South homes listed in Kips Bay Tribeca were priced Midtown above $1.3 million. Midtown South Midtown West Tribeca has the Murray Hill distinction of being Roosevelt Island the Manhattan Sutton Place neighborhood with the Turtle Bay highest concentration All Upper East Side of top-tier homes Carnegie Hill available. Just 0.3 Lenox Hill percent of homes in Upper Carnegie Hill Tribeca were in the Upper East Side bottom tier in Q2. Yorkville All Upper West Side Lincoln Square Bottom-tier homes Manhattan Valley were heavily Morningside Heights concentrated in Upper West Side Upper Manhattan. All Upper Manhattan 3 in 5 homes in Central Harlem the greater Upper East Harlem Manhattan market Hamilton Heights were priced below Inwood $615,000 - offering Manhattanville relatively cheaper Washington Heights options for buyers in West Harlem Manhattan. Bottom Tier Middle Tier Top Tier 4 Source: STREET EASY Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q2 2014 Condos 1 Inventory Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2013 Total Condo Units Available 5,603 5,069 6.5% 5,678 -1.3% Bottom Tier 9.1% 8.7% 7.1% Middle Tier 29.6% 28.2% 23.0% Top Tier 61.3% 63.1% 69.9% Median Asking Price $1,700,000 $1,665,000 2.1% $1,492,500 13.9% Median Asking Price per sq. ft. $1,542 $1,517 1.6% $1,353 14.0% Recorded Sales 2 Total Sales 1,503 1,381 8.8% 1,872 -19.7% Median Sale Price $1,300,000 $1,330,000 -2.3% $1,180,000 10.2% Pending Sales Total Pending Sales 1,391 1,156 20.3% 1,694 -17.9% Median Days on Market 49 63 56 1 Inventory, sales, and pending sales data includes only condo listings.
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