Distributed Wind Market Applications DE-AC36-99-GO10337

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Distributed Wind Market Applications DE-AC36-99-GO10337 A national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Distributed Wind Market Technical Report NREL/TP-500-39851 Applications November 2007 T. Forsyth and I. Baring-Gould NREL is operated by Midwest Research Institute ● Battelle Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 Distributed Wind Market Technical Report NREL/TP-500-39851 Applications November 2007 T. Forsyth and I. Baring-Gould Prepared under Task No. WER6.7502 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 20% postconsumer waste Table of Contents CHAPTER 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................1 I. SUMMARY OF MARKET POTENTIAL........................................................................................................................3 II. SUMMARY OF DOMESTIC MARKETS FOR DISTRIBUTED WIND TECHNOLOGIES .....................................................4 III. SUMMARY OF INTERNATIONAL MARKET FOR DISTRIBUTED WIND TECHNOLOGIES ............................................8 IV. MARKET-BASED BARRIERS TO THE DISTRIBUTED WIND MARKET....................................................................11 V. TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO THE DISTRIBUTED WIND MARKET .............................................................................12 VI. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................................................13 VII. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................................13 CHAPTER 2. SMALL-SCALE REMOTE OR OFF-GRID POWER..................................................................15 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................................15 II. APPLICATION BACKGROUND...............................................................................................................................15 III. CURRENT STATUS OF SMALL-SCALE WIND .......................................................................................................16 IV. MARKET BARRIERS ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................17 Expected United States Market ..........................................................................................................................17 Expected International Market...........................................................................................................................17 Technology Adoption Timeframe .......................................................................................................................19 Non-Technical Barriers for Technology Adoption.............................................................................................20 Time-Critical Issues ...........................................................................................................................................22 Incentive Markets...............................................................................................................................................22 Utility Industry Perspectives ..............................................................................................................................22 V. TECHNICAL BARRIERS ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT ...............................................................................................23 Barriers for Small-Scale Turbines .....................................................................................................................23 VI. RECOMMENDED AREAS OF TECHNICAL CONCENTRATION.................................................................................26 Technical Challenges.........................................................................................................................................26 VII. CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................................30 VIII. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................................31 CHAPTER 3. RESIDENTIAL POWER .................................................................................................................32 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................................32 II. APPLICATION BACKGROUND...............................................................................................................................33 III. CURRENT STATUS OF GRID-CONNECTED RESIDENTIAL DISTRIBUTED GENERATION .........................................34 The Future..........................................................................................................................................................34 IV. MARKET BARRIERS ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................35 Expected United States Market ..........................................................................................................................35 Expected International Market...........................................................................................................................39 Technology Adoption Time Frame.....................................................................................................................40 Non-Technical Barriers for Technology Adoption.............................................................................................41 Economics..........................................................................................................................................................41 Lack of Incentives...............................................................................................................................................44 Subsidy Market for Residential Wind Distributed Generation...........................................................................46 Utility Industry Impact of Residential Distributed Generation..........................................................................46 V. TECHNICAL BARRIERS ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT ...............................................................................................49 Technology Barriers for Distributed Wind Generation .....................................................................................49 Expected Turbine Size for Residential Distributed Generation .........................................................................52 Required Cost of Energy ....................................................................................................................................53 Seasonality and Geographic Nature of Wind Resource.....................................................................................54 Impact of Intermittency on Residential Wind Energy.........................................................................................55 Interface between Turbine and Wind-Distributed Generation...........................................................................55 VI. RECOMMENDED AREAS OF TECHNICAL CONCENTRATION.................................................................................55 The Future..........................................................................................................................................................55
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