DOCSLIB.ORG

A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC Dataset V1.0)

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC Dataset V1.0) ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 38, OCTOBER 2021, 1791–1802 • Data Description Article • A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0) Peiyan CHEN1,2,3, Hui YU*1,2, Kevin K. W. CHEUNG4, Jiajie XIN1, and Yi LU1,2,3 1Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China 2Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 20030, China 3The Joint Laboratory for Typhoon Forecasting Technique Applications between Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau, Wenzhou 325027, China 4Climate and Atmospheric Science, NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment, Sydney 2000, Australia (Received 26 November 2020; revised 28 April 2021; accepted 6 May 2021) ABSTRACT A dataset entitled “A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland” (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TC- induced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration’s tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts. Key words: tropical cyclone, risk, dataset, China Citation: Chen, P. Y., H. Yu, K. Cheung, J. J. Xin, and Y. Lu, 2021: A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 38(10), 1791−1802, https://doi.org/10.1007/ s00376-021-0365-y. Dataset Profile Dataset title A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland, Version 1.0 (PRITC dataset V1.0) Time range 1949–2018 Geographical scope The Chinese mainland Data format Text Data volume 68 KB Data service system http://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/qzfxzs_sm.html Sources of funding National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1501604), National Natural Science Foundations of China (41875114), Shanghai Science & Technology Research Program (19dz1200101), National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB452806), and Basic Research Projects of the Shang- hai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration (2020JB06). * Corresponding author: Hui YU Email: [email protected] © The Authors [2021]. This article is published with open access at link.springer.com 1792 PRITC DATASET V1.0 VOLUME 38 (Continued) Dataset composition The dataset has one file, which is called “PRITC_V1.0.txt”. It contains two parts: a headline and the data lines. Each data line has 10 columns, including the serial number, year, TC identifier, TC name, province and intensity grade at the first landfall of the TC, index of TC-induced wind (IWT), index of TC-induced pre- cipitation (IPT), combined index of TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT), and corresponding cat- egory level (CAT_IPWT). 1. Introduction risk caused by TC winds. The absence of precipitation in these indicators is one source of the differences that exist Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most disastrous natural between the estimated and actual risks resulting from landfall- phenomena in the world, and China is among the most ing TCs, especially over complex terrain. To address this severely affected countries (Yu and Chen, 2019). In recent issue, Rezapour and Baldock, (2014) added a rainfall index years, extremely disastrous TCs have occurred frequently in to the hazard index to estimate and rank the severity levels China, possibly due to the warming climate. For example, of hurricanes making landfall in the continental United Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) made landfall in Guang- States based on precipitation data extracted from remotely dong Province in China, causing a total direct economic sensed imagery using an artificial neural network database. loss (DEL) of 14.23 billion Chinese Yuan in six provinces Zhang et al., (2010) added a total vapor index to the total dam- including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hunan, Yunnan, age index for TCs making landfall in China. Both studies and Guizhou provinces. Super Typhoon Lekima (2019) and showed that the hazard indices, when rainfall factors were severe tropical storm Rumbia (2018) made landfall in East included, were highly correlated with DELs. China, causing severe flooding that spanned the eastern, north- Recently, Chen et al., (2009; 2013; 2019) developed ern, and northeastern regions of China (Zhou et al., 2021). three potential risk indices for TCs making landfall on the Recent research has also indicated that TCs in the Western Chinese mainland based on 30 years (1984–2013) of sur- North Pacific have shifted towards becoming fewer, slower, face observations obtained from the China Meteorological and stronger; a decreasing trend has been observed in trop- Administration (CMA). Among these three indices, one ical storm/typhoon (and above) counts, while statistically sig- index was based on wind, one was based on precipitation, nificant increasing trends have been observed in the intens- and one was based on both precipitation and wind. All three ity of TCs, the intensification rate from the tropical storm to indices were significantly correlated with damage, and the typhoon stage, and the proportion of TCs that undergo rapid index that was based on both precipitation and wind ranked intensification at least once during their lifetime (Knutson et best among the three. A potential risk index dataset for TCs al., 2010; Kishtawal et al., 2012; Ying et al., 2012; Holland that made landfall over the Chinese mainland from and Bruyere, 2014; Emanuel, 2017; Kossin, 2018; Zhao et 1949–2018, abbreviated as the PRITC dataset V1.0, was al., 2018a, b; Hall and Kossin, 2019; Kossin et al., 2020; Lee et al., 2020). There has also been a statistically signific- developed following the publishing of Chen et al., (2019) ant northwestward shift in the maximum intensity of TC and was released to the public through the internet in tracks over the Western North Pacific resulting in an August 2020. The dataset will be updated annually in the increase in TC intensity and a tendency for TCs to be more future. destructive when making landfall over East China (Park et For ease of use, detailed information about the dataset al., 2013, 2014; Mei and Xie, 2016; Li et al., 2017; Lee et is introduced in this paper. Section 2 describes the data al., 2020). These changes will cause China, especially East sources and the equations of the indices. Section 3 presents China and North China, to face higher TC hazards risks the dataset composition and the organizational structure of than ever. the data. Section 4 presents some general characteristics of The risks resulting from TCs are related to TC hazards the indices. The last section includes the conclusion and dis- and to the vulnerability and resilience of the hazard-bearing cussion. bodies. TC hazards are the drivers of risk or damage and gen- erally include severe winds, heavy precipitation, and storm 2. Data sources, expressions, and dataset surge. Reasonable and reliable indications of potential risk composition from the perspective of TC hazards are a key point in TC risk assessments. Several different expressions based on the 2.1. Best-track data intensity of TCs or on their extreme wind speeds exist and are most popularly used as indicators of the potential risk res- The 6-h track and intensity data of TCs that made land- ulting from TC hazards. Examples include the power dissipa- fall over the Chinese mainland were obtained from the tion index (Emanuel, 2005) and the hurricane intensity CMA TC best track dataset (Ying et al., 2014) and were index (Kantha 2006, 2013; Powell and Reinhold, 2007; downloaded from http://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/zjljsjj_ Xiao et al., 2011; Peduzzi et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2016; sm.html. There were 583 TCs that made landfall on main- Choun and Kim, 2019; Fang et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2020b). land China from 1949 to 2018, with an annual mean of 8.3 Fundamentally, these indicators express the damage-based TCs. OCTOBER 2021 CHEN ET AL. 1793 2.2. Observed precipitation and wind data (Fig. 1) were selected following the methods of Lu et al. The TC-induced precipitation and wind data recorded (2017) and the Climatological Atlas of Tropical Cyclones at meteorological stations throughout the Chinese mainland over the Western North Pacific (1981–2010) published by were obtained from the CMA TC database (Ying et al., the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA in 2017 2014). The temporal duration ranged from 1949 to 2018, cov- (STI/CMA, 2017). Among these stations, there were 449 ering a total of 70 years. The TC-induced precipitation data basic national weather stations, 102 reference national clima- consist of the daily precipitation, maximum 1-h precipita- tological stations, and 814 general national weather stations. tion, and the associated dates and times when stations recor- The years in which the stations were constructed ranged from 1914 to 1977 (Fig. 2); 4.8% of the stations were built ded total precipitation values ≥ 10 mm.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Bishop Jane Alexander and the Rev. Patrick Stephens
    Learning through Lent A PWRDF resource by Bishop Jane Alexander and the Rev. Patrick Stephens 2021 Table of Contents Introduction, Lent 2019 .......................................................................................................3 Easter Garden Activity Plan ................................................................................................4 Creation is our story Ash Wednesday to Saturday: February 17–Fevbruary 20 ..........................................6 Creation: A relationship of respect e First Week of Lent: February 22_February 27 ....................................................14 Who we are and how we are called e Second Week of Lent: March 1–March 6 ............................................................26 Water and re: life in the balance e ird Week of Lent: March 8–March 13 .............................................................42 One world, one faith, many nations e Fourth Week of Lent: March 15–March 20 .........................................................54 Incarnation and redemption: a natural connection e Fih Week of Lent: March 22–March 27 ............................................................66 A personal commitment to creation discipleship Holy Week to Easter: March 29–April 4 .....................................................................78 How to read this resource ON PAPER ON A SCREEN IN AN EMAIL Download and print the PWRDF story links are Subscribe at PDF. Links to PWRDF also embedded within the pwrdf.org/Lent2021 to stories are included for text of the reection and receive an email every your reference. will take you directly to morning, Story links are our website. embedded in the text. Introduction Welcome to PWRDF’s 2021 Lent resource, “Creation care: climate action,” prepared as part of our three-year education focus of the same name. While COVID-19 has swept climate change concerns from the headlines over the past year, PWRDF partners around the world and here in Canada, continue to address the impacts of a changing climate on the communities they serve.
    [Show full text]
  • An Efficient Method for Simulating Typhoon Waves Based on A
    Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Article An Efficient Method for Simulating Typhoon Waves Based on a Modified Holland Vortex Model Lvqing Wang 1,2,3, Zhaozi Zhang 1,*, Bingchen Liang 1,2,*, Dongyoung Lee 4 and Shaoyang Luo 3 1 Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Road, Qingdao 266100, China; [email protected] 2 College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Road, Qingdao 266100, China 3 NAVAL Research Academy, Beijing 100070, China; [email protected] 4 Korea Institute of Ocean, Science and Technology, Busan 600-011, Korea; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (B.L.) Received: 20 January 2020; Accepted: 23 February 2020; Published: 6 March 2020 Abstract: A combination of the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model and a modified Holland vortex model is developed and studied in the present work. The Holland 2010 model is modified with two improvements: the first is a new scaling parameter, bs, that is formulated with information about the maximum wind speed (vms) and the typhoon’s forward movement velocity (vt); the second is the introduction of an asymmetric typhoon structure. In order to convert the wind speed, as reconstructed by the modified Holland model, from 1-min averaged wind inputs into 10-min averaged wind inputs to force the WW3 model, a gust factor (gf) is fitted in accordance with practical test cases. Validation against wave buoy data proves that the combination of the two models through the gust factor is robust for the estimation of typhoon waves.
    [Show full text]
  • Efforts for Emergency Observation Mapping in Manila Observatory
    Efforts for Emergency Observation Mapping in Manila Observatory: Development of a Typhoon Impact Estimation System (TIES) focusing on Economic Flood Loss of Urban Poor Communities in Metro Manila UN-SPIDER International Conference on Space-based Technologies for Disaster Risk Reduction – “Enhancing Disaster Preparedness for Effective Emergency Response” Session 4: Demonstrating Advances in Earth Observation to Build Back Better September 25, 2018 Ma. Flordeliza P. Del Castillo Manila Observatory EMERGENCY OBSERVATION MAPPING IN MANILA OBSERVATORY • Typhoon Reports • Sentinel Asia Data Analysis Node (2011-present) • Flood loss estimation for urban poor households in Metro Manila (2016-present) 1. Regional Climate Systems (RCS) – Hazard analysis (Rainfall and typhoon forecast) 2. Instrumentation and Efforts before typhoon arrives Technology Development – Automated Weather Stations 3. Geomatics for Environment and Development – Mapping and integration of Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability layers Observing from space and also from the ground. Efforts during typhoon event Now, incorporating exposure and vulnerability variables Efforts after a typhoon event Data Analysis Node (Post- Disaster Event) Image Source: Secretariat of Sentinel Asia Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Sentinel Asia Annual Report 2016 MO Emergency Observation (EO) and Mapping Protocol (15 October 2018) Step 1: Step 2: Step 3: Establish the Apply for EMERGENCY Elevate status to LOCATION/COVERAGE of OBSERVATION to International Disaster EOR Sentinel Asia (SA) Charter (IDC) by ADRC Step 6: Step 5: Step 4: Upload maps in MO, SA MAP Download images & IDC websites PRODUCTION Emergency Observation Mapping Work • December 2011 – T.S. Washi “Sendong” • August 2012 – Southwest Monsoon Flood “Habagat” • ” Emergency Observation Mapping Work • December 2011 – T.S. Washi “Sendong” • August 2012 – Southwest Monsoon Flood “Habagat” • December 2012 – Bopha “Pablo” • August 2013 – Southwest Monsoon Flood and T.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoon Sarika
    Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Philippines: Typhoon Sarika DREF Operation: MDRPH021 Glide n° TC-2016-000108-PHL Date of issue: 19 October 2016 Date of disaster: 16 October 2016 Operation manager: Point of contact: Patrick Elliott, operations manager Atty. Oscar Palabyab, secretary general IFRC Philippines country office Philippine Red Cross Operation start date: 16 October 2016 Expected timeframe: 3 months (to 31 January 2017) Overall operation budget: CHF 169,011 Number of people affected: 52,270 people (11,926 Number of people to be assisted: 8,000 people families) (1,600 families) Host National Society: Philippine Red Cross (PRC) is the nation’s largest humanitarian organization and works through 100 chapters covering all administrative districts and major cities in the country. It has at least 1,000 staff at national headquarters and chapter levels, and approximately one million volunteers and supporters, of whom some 500,000 are active volunteers. At chapter level, a programme called Red Cross 143, has volunteers in place to enhance the overall capacity of the National Society to prepare for and respond in disaster situations. Red Cross Red Crescent Movement partners actively involved in the operation: PRC is working with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in this operation. The National Society also works with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as well as American Red Cross, Australian Red Cross, British Red Cross, Canadian Red Cross, Finnish Red Cross, German Red Cross, Japanese Red Cross Society, The Netherlands Red Cross, Norwegian Red Cross, Qatar Red Crescent Society, Spanish Red Cross, and Swiss Red Cross in-country.
    [Show full text]
  • 7 the Analysis of Storm Surge in Manila Bay, the Philippines
    INTERNATIONAL HYDROGRAPHIC REVIEW MAY 2019 THE ANALYSIS OF STORM SURGE IN MANILA BAY, THE PHILIPPINES By Commander C. S. Luma-ang Hydrography Branch, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority, (Philippines) Abstract In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan produced a storm surge over seven metres in San Pedro Bay in the Philippines that killed approximately 6,300 people. The event created significant public awareness on storm surges and exposed the lack of records and historical research in the Philippines. This study investigated the tidal height records during intense cyclone activities in 2016 and 2017 to provide accurate information about storm surge development in the largest and most populated coastal area in the country – Manila Bay. The results of this investigation indicated that there are consistencies in the characteristics of tropical cyclones that produce larger storm surges. The results also show that actual storm surge heights are generally smaller than predicted height values. Résumé En 2013, le typhon Haiyan a provoqué une onde de tempête de plus de sept mètres dans la Baie de San Pedro aux Philippines, faisant près de 6 300 victimes. Cet événement a provoqué une importante sensibilisation du public envers les ondes de tempête et a mis en évidence le manque d’archives et de recherches historiques aux Philippines. La présente étude a examiné les enregistrements des hauteurs des marées au cours d’activités cycloniques intenses en 2016 et 2017 afin de fournir des informations précises sur le développement d’ondes de tempête dans la zone côtière la plus étendue et la plus peuplée du pays, la Baie de Manille.
    [Show full text]
  • Humanitarian Civil-Military Coordination for Asia and the Pacific
    REGIONAL CONSULTATIVE GROUP HUMANITARIAN CIVIL-MILITARY COORDINATION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC HUMANITARIAN CIVIL-MILITARY COORDINATION IN EMERGENCIES: TOWARDS A PREDICTABLE MODEL FOREWORD The Regional Consultative Group (RCG) on Humanitarian This revised publication was produced through Civil-Military Coordination (CMCoord) for Asia and collaboration between the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for the Pacific is a key forum for supporting and elevating Humanitarian Assistance on disaster response, the United coordination, building relationships, and sharing learning Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to enhance and strengthen emergency response. When – Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, the Australian the RCG was formed in 2014, it was tasked with improving Civil-Military Centre and Humanitarian Advisory Group. awareness and enhancing the predictability of CMCoord Expert practitioners and researchers contributed their mechanisms, and their respective functions, during large- time to ensure the information is accurate and accessible. scale disaster response. As a result, the RCG initiated Like the initial version, the publication will be regularly the development of the first version of Humanitarian updated to reflect operational environments accurately. Civil-Military Coordination in Emergencies: Towards a Predictable Model, which focused on explaining the As the current Chair of the RCG, we recognize that effective legislation, coordination mechanisms, approach to and humanitarian CMCoord enables timely, efficient and leadership of disaster management in the five most effective response, and we appreciate every investment disaster-prone countries in Asia: Bangladesh, Nepal, and effort of the relevant individuals, governments and Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines. The publication organizations in the revision of this publication. We trust was launched in 2017, and soon became a key reference for that it will receive due attention and support future the CMCoord community.
    [Show full text]
  • The St·Ructural Evolution Oftyphoo S
    NSF/ NOAA ATM 8418204 ATM 8720488 DOD- NAVY- ONR N00014-87-K-0203 THE ST·RUCTURAL EVOLUTION OFTYPHOO S by Candis L. Weatherford SEP 2 6 1989 Pl.-William M. Gray THE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF TYPHOONS By Candis L. Weatherford Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 September, 1989 Atmospheric Science Paper No. 446 ABSTRACT A three phase life cycle characterizing the structural evolution of typhoons has been derived from aircraft reconnaissance data for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. More than 750 aircraft reconnaissance missions at 700 mb into 101 northwest Pacific typhoons are examined. The typical life cycle consists of the fol­ lowing: phase 1) the entire vortex wind field builds as the cyclone attains maximum intensity; phase 2) central pressure fills and maximum winds decrease in association with expanding cyclone size and strengthening of outer core winds; and phase 3) the wind field of the entire vortex decays. Nearly 700 aircraft radar reports of eyewall diameter are used to augment anal­ yses of the typhoon's life cycle. Eye characteristics and diameter appear to reflect the ease with which the maximum wind field intensifies. On average, an eye first appears with intensifying cyclones at 980 mb central pressure. Cyclones obtaining an eye at pressures higher than 980 mb are observed to intensify more rapidly while those whose eye initially appears at lower pressures deepen at slower rates and typ­ ically do not achieve as deep a central pressure. The eye generally contracts with intensification and expands as the cyclone fills, although there are frequent excep­ tions to this rule due to the variable nature of the eyewall size.
    [Show full text]
  • The MJO As Monitored by Both the RMM and CPC Velocity Potential Index Weakened Over the Past Few Days
    The MJO as monitored by both the RMM and CPC velocity potential index weakened over the past few days. This was expected as various convective signals are competing over the global tropics. The latest ensemble guidance suggests that a coherent enhanced phase may emerge over the Maritime Continent and propagate over the West Pacific by the end of Week-2. This is due to the fast eastward propagation of a Kelvin wave into the Eastern Hemisphere as well as the developing El Nino base state. Tropical Storm Rumbia and Typhoon Soulik formed over the West Pacific as forecast during the past few days. Tropical Storm Rumbia made landfall late August 16 near Shanghai, while Typhoon Soulik is forecast to track northwestward while intensifying to the equivalent of a category 3 on the Saffir- Simpson scale. A landfall over southern Japan on August 21 is currently forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Over the East Pacific Hurricane Lane formed as a depression at 00Z August 15. It is forecast to take a track similar to Hurricane Hector, tracking nearly due west near 15N, passing south of Hawaii by the middle of next week. Subtropical Storm Ernesto formed near 38N over the North Atlantic on August 15, and is rapidly moving northeastward, forecast to become post-tropical by later today. Tropical cyclone (TC) formation is highly likely over the West Pacific in the next day or two, about 10 degrees east of where Typhoon Soulik formed. Over the East Pacific, there is a low risk of TC formation east of Hurricane Lane.
    [Show full text]
  • Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong
    78 BAVI AUG : ,- HAISHEN JANGMI SEP AUG 6 KUJIRA MAYSAK SEP SEP HAGUPIT AUG DOLPHIN SEP /1 CHAN-HOM OCT TD.. MEKKHALA AUG TD.. AUG AUG ATSANI Hong Kong HIGOS NOV AUG DOLPHIN() 2012 SEP : 78 HAISHEN() 2010 NURI ,- /1 BAVI() 2008 SEP JUN JANGMI CHAN-HOM() 2014 NANGKA HIGOS(2007) VONGFONG AUG ()2005 OCT OCT AUG MAY HAGUPIT() 2004 + AUG SINLAKU AUG AUG TD.. JUL MEKKHALA VAMCO ()2006 6 NOV MAYSAK() 2009 AUG * + NANGKA() 2016 AUG TD.. KUJIRA() 2013 SAUDEL SINLAKU() 2003 OCT JUL 45 SEP NOUL OCT JUL GONI() 2019 SEP NURI(2002) ;< OCT JUN MOLAVE * OCT LINFA SAUDEL(2017) OCT 45 LINFA() 2015 OCT GONI OCT ;< NOV MOLAVE(2018) ETAU OCT NOV NOUL(2011) ETAU() 2021 SEP NOV VAMCO() 2022 ATSANI() 2020 NOV OCT KROVANH(2023) DEC KROVANH DEC VONGFONG(2001) MAY 二零二零年 熱帶氣旋 TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2020 2 二零二一年七月出版 Published July 2021 香港天文台編製 香港九龍彌敦道134A Prepared by: Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong © 版權所有。未經香港天文台台長同意，不得翻印本刊物任何部分內容。 © Copyright reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the permission of the Director of the Hong Kong Observatory. 知識產權公告 Intellectual Property Rights Notice All contents contained in this publication, 本刊物的所有內容，包括但不限於所有 including but not limited to all data, maps, 資料、地圖、文本、圖像、圖畫、圖片、 text, graphics, drawings, diagrams, 照片、影像，以及數據或其他資料的匯編 photographs, videos and compilation of data or other materials (the “Materials”) are (下稱「資料」)，均受知識產權保護。資 subject to the intellectual property rights 料的知識產權由香港特別行政區政府 which are either owned by the Government of (下稱「政府」)擁有，或經資料的知識產 the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (the “Government”) or have been licensed to 權擁有人授予政府，為本刊物預期的所 the Government by the intellectual property 有目的而處理該等資料。任何人如欲使 rights’ owner(s) of the Materials to deal with 用資料用作非商業用途，均須遵守《香港 such Materials for all the purposes contemplated in this publication.
    [Show full text]
  • Towards Predicting Rice Loss Due to Typhoons in the Philippines S
    The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XLII-4/W19, 2019 PhilGEOS x GeoAdvances 2019, 14–15 November 2019, Manila, Philippines TOWARDS PREDICTING RICE LOSS DUE TO TYPHOONS IN THE PHILIPPINES S. Boeke1,4, M.J.C. van den Homberg1, A. Teklesadik, 1 J. L. D. Fabila 2, D. Riquet 3, M. Alimardani 4 1 510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross 2 Philippine Red Cross 3 German Red Cross 4 Tilburg University Commission IV KEY WORDS: Typhoons, Philippines, Machine Learning, impact-based forecasting, rice loss ABSTRACT: Reliable predictions of the impact of natural hazards turning into a disaster is important for better targeting humanitarian response as well as for triggering early action. Open data and machine learning can be used to predict loss and damage to the houses and livelihoods of affected people. This research focuses on agricultural loss, more specifically rice loss in the Philippines due to typhoons. Regression and binary classification algorithms are trained using feature selection methods to find the most important explanatory features. Both geographical data from every province, and typhoon specific features of 11 historical typhoons are used as input. The percentage of lost rice area is considered as the output, with an average value of 7.1%. As for the regression task, the support vector regressor performed best with a Mean Absolute Error of 6.83 percentage points. For the classification model, thresholds of 20%, 30% and 40% are tested in order to find the best performing model. These thresholds represent different levels of lost rice fields for triggering anticipatory action towards farmers.
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoons and Floods, Manila and the Provinces, and the Marcos Years 台風と水害、マニラと地方〜 マ ルコス政権二〇年の物語
    The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus Volume 11 | Issue 43 | Number 3 | Oct 21, 2013 A Tale of Two Decades: Typhoons and Floods, Manila and the Provinces, and the Marcos Years 台風と水害、マニラと地方〜 マ ルコス政権二〇年の物語 James F. Warren The typhoons and floods that occurred in the Marcos years were labelled ‘natural disasters’ Background: Meteorology by the authorities in Manila. But in fact, it would have been more appropriate to label In the second half of the twentieth century, them un-natural, or man-made disasters typhoon-triggered floods affected all sectors of because of the nature of politics in those society in the Philippines, but none more so unsettling years. The typhoons and floods of than the urban poor, particularly theesteros - the 1970s and 1980s, which took a huge toll in dwellers or shanty-town inhabitants, residing in lives and left behind an enormous trail of the low-lying locales of Manila and a number of physical destruction and other impacts after other cities on Luzon and the Visayas. The the waters receded, were caused as much by growing number of post-war urban poor in the interactive nature of politics with the Manila, Cebu City and elsewhere, was largely environment, as by geography and the due to the policy repercussions of rapid typhoons per se, as the principal cause of economic growth and impoverishment under natural calamity. The increasingly variable 1 the military-led Marcos regime. At this time in nature of the weather and climate was a the early 1970s, rural poverty andcatalyst, but not the sole determinant of the environmental devastation increased rapidly, destruction and hidden hazards that could and on a hitherto unknown scale in the linger for years in the aftermath of the Philippines.
    [Show full text]
  • APPEAL Philippines Typhoon Goni and Vamco PHL202
    ACT Alliance APPEAL PHL202 Appeal Target: US$ 1,912,033 Balance requested: US$ 1,912,033 Humanitarian Response to Typhoons Goni and Vamco Affected Communities Appeal target : USD1,766,003 Balance requested : USD1,154,820 Table of contents 0. Project Summary Sheet 1. BACKGROUND 1.1. Context 1.2. Needs 1.3. Capacity to Respond 1.4. Core Faith Values 2. PROJECT RATIONALE 2.1. Intervention Strategy and Theory of Change 2.2. Impact 2.3. Outcomes 2.4. Outputs 2.5. Preconditions / Assumptions 2.6. Risk Analysis 2.7. Sustainability / Exit Strategy 2.8. Building Capacity of National Members 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 3.1. ACT Code of Conduct 3.2. Implementation Approach 3.3. Project Stakeholders 3.4. Field Coordination 3.5. Project Management 3.6. Implementing Partners 3.7. Project Advocacy 3.8. Engaging Faith Leaders 4. PROJECT MONITORING 4.1. Project Monitoring 4.2. Safety and Security Plans 4.3. Knowledge Management 5. PROJECT ACCOUNTABILITY 5.1. Mainstreaming Cross-Cutting Issues 5.1.1. Participation Marker 5.1.2. Anti-terrorism / Corruption 5.2. Conflict Sensitivity / Do No Harm 5.3. Complaint Mechanism and Feedback 5.4. Communication and Visibility 6. PROJECT FINANCE 6.1. Consolidated budget 7. ANNEXES 7.1. ANNEX 1 – Simplified Workplan 7.2. ANNEX 2 – Summary of Needs Assessment (open template) 7.3. ANNEX 3 – Logical Framework (compulsory template) Mandatory 7.4. ANNEX 4 – Summary table (compulsory template) Mandatory PHL 202 – Humanitarian Response to Communities Affected by Typhoons Goni and Vamco Project Summary Sheet Project Title Humanitarian
    [Show full text]