Estimation of Run-Of-River Hydropower Potential in the Myitnge River Basin

https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2020.p0267 Estimation of Run-of-River Hydropower Potential in the Myitnge River Basin Paper: Estimation of Run-of-River Hydropower Potential in the Myitnge River Basin Kyu Kyu Thin∗,†, Win Win Zin∗, Zin Mar Lar Tin San∗, Akiyuki Kawasaki∗∗, Abdul Moiz∗∗, and Seemanta Sharma Bhagabati∗∗ ∗Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University Gyogone, Insein Road, Yangon 11011, Myanmar †Corresponding author, E-mail: [email protected] ∗∗Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan [Received July 31, 2019; accepted February 20, 2020] The need for electricity is rapidly increasing, espe- 1. Introduction cially in developing countries. There is vast hydropower potential existing globally that has not yet A rapid increase in population and global urbanization been explored. This could be the only solution to solve has placed enormous pressure on global natural resources. future global power shortage. Hydropower is a clean The increase in the demand for energy, especially from and renewable source of energy because it does not renewable and sustainable sources, accelerates the scope exploit the use of water. However, using the conven- for development of small hydropower plants and enhances tional approach to harness hydropower results in sev- investment in new survey studies. There are various re- eral challenges. It is difficult to identify suitable sites newable energy options including wind, solar, and hy- and assess site potential during the planning stage of dropower. Hydropower is apparently the most common hydropower projects. In this study, run-of-river hy- and well-established form of renewable energy option [1]. dropower potential for the Myitnge River Basin was Preliminary hydropower survey studies are usually sub- estimated by intergrating a Geographic Information ject to huge uncertainties regarding the technical, eco- System (GIS) and Soil & Water Assessement Tool nomic and environmental feasibility of the undeveloped (SWAT) model. A GIS based tool was developed us- potential [2]. The main principle of hydropower is con- ing Python to spot the potential locations of the hy- verting the potential energy of water to mechanical en- dropower plants. The hydrological model (SWAT) was ergy, by flowing from a higher elevation to a turbine at a designed in order to obtain the values of monthly dis- lower elevation. This produces mechanical energy, which charge for all potential hydropwer sites. The flow is subsequently converted to electrical by the generator duration curves at potential locations were developed that is rotated by the turbine above. and the design discharge for hydropower was iden- There are various sizes of hydropower plants based on tified. Forty-four run-of-river (ROR) type potential the available water head, ranging from small, medium and hydropower sites were identified by considering only high head. Small hydropower has been gaining ground as the topographic factors. After simulation with SWAT a renewable energy source that could play a significant model, twenty potential sites with a hydropower gen- role in reducing fossil fuel use in both developed and de- eration potential of 292 MW were identified. Cur- veloping countries [3]. While few studies discuss the ad- rently, only one 790 MW Yeywa Hydropower Plant, ditional social consequences of small hydropower, those which is the largest plant in Myanmar, exists in the that do indicate several benefits, including the ability to Myitnge River Basin. The amount of estimated power bring small hydro to rural environments and reduce the generated from ROR may increase the existing power population displacement and cultural loss that is often as- system of Myitnge Basin by 36%. This study will associated with other forms of energy production. In ad- sist stakeholders in the energy sector to optimize the dition, small hydro has been associated with fewer point available resources to select appropiate sites for small sources of pollution, fewer downstream hazards, and a re- hydropower plants with high power potential. duced impact on crop yields and overall quality of life. In addition, it requires low initial funding, smaller project site area, shorter planning and construction period, local Keywords: Myitnge, hydropower, GIS, SWAT capacity, indigenous material, and lower power genera- tion cost in comparison to that of large power projects. This study presents a cost-effective system to assess run- of-river (ROR) hydropower potential and identify suitable project sites using Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model and Geographic Information System Journal of Disaster Research Vol.15 No.3, 2020 267 © Fuji Technology Press Ltd. Creative Commons CC BY-ND: This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/). Thin,K.K.etal. Source: M. Min Khaing, 2015 [6] Source: World Energy Council, 2013 [7] Fig. 1. Contribution to the electricity supply system. Fig. 2. Location of planned and existing hydropower projects. (GIS). Global energy demand projections indicate an increasing trend, with annual consumption estimated to reach approximately 778 Etta Joule by 2035 [4]. This will present major challenges in the future for the energy production sector in particular areas. Myanmar is also facing a shortage of energy that has resulted in frequent power failures and load shedding throughout the country for the past several years. At present, hydropower comprises two-thirds of the country’s energy mix, with 3,151 MW of the installed capacity stemming from 25 operational projects. In addition, a further 46 GW of technically feasible potential has been derived, and these projects mentioned are now under construction or at the advanced planning stage [5]. Across its four major rivers and numerous tributaries, it is an estimated 40,000 MW of exploitable hydropower potential in Myanmar. It is crucial to pur- sue sustainable, alternate and non-polluting energy resources assuming top priority for self-reliance in regional energy supply [5]. Hydropower controls 71.4% of grid- connected electricity in Myanmar. Due to instability in system base load, insufficiency in power supply occurs Source: World Energy Council, 2013 [7] in summer. The contribution of different sources to the Fig. 3. Location map of study area. electricity supply system in current and future scenarios are illustrated in Fig. 1. The maximum power demand in Myanmar will vary from 9,100 MW to 14,542 MW in 2030 [5]. To combat the power shortage and the increased 2. Study Area future power demand, the MOEE (Ministry of Electricity and Energy) plans to develop the new hydropower plants The Myitnge River originates from the Ayeyarwaddy- as shown in Fig. 2. According to a recent estimate from Thanlyin watershed and flows westwards through the the MOEE, more than 100 GW of hydropower potential northern Shan Plateau of eastern Myanmar and eventually can be developed in Myanmar but only 3 GW has cur- flows into the Ayeyarwady at Amarapura. The area be- rently been established [6]. This study aims to contribute ing studied is 55,000 km2 and its outlet is located near the towards the development of a platform that can aid and Mandalay Division, which is the third capital of Myanmar support decision-makers and hydropower planners with as displayed in Fig. 3. It is located at 20◦484.44N, making more objective and quantified decisions. It pro- 23◦4821.60N and 95◦80.03E, 98◦2927.60E. The cli- vides a framework for robust and informed preliminary mate of this area is semi-arid and the annual precipi- hydropower planning. tation is approximately 1,412 mm. The daily tempera- 268 Journal of Disaster Research Vol.15 No.3, 2020 Estimation of Run-of-River Hydropower Potential in the Myitnge River Basin ture ranges from 27–29◦C in summer and 18–25◦Cin hydropower potential can be written as Eq. (1) [12]. In winter. Myitnge has both abundant water resources and Eq. (1), the two parameters, Q and H, need to be calcu- steep slopes. The annual discharge at the Shwesaryan lated. If Q and H are known for a given segment of a station is 5788.3 m3/s. If harvested and utilized prop- stream, the hydropower potential can easily be estimated erly, the energy produced can help to meet the local de- for that segment [12]. mand and simultaneously raise the local standard of liv- P = γ QH, .............. (1) ing. At present, there is only one hydropower plant called Yeywa having an installed power of 790 MW in the My- where, itnge River Basin. This is the largest power plant in the P = Power [W] country. According to the DEPP (Department of Elec- γ = Specific weight of water [N/m3] tric Power Planning), there are six potential hydropower Q = Discharge [m3/s] plants in the Myitnge River Basin [8]. H = Head [m] The methodological framework of the study is dis- 3. Methodology played in Fig. 4. Widely used GIS software ArcGIS 10.4 was used to process the satellite-derived Digital Elevation The Geographic Information System (GIS) concepts Model (DEM). Other ArcGIS run-of-river site selection and technologies contribute largely while conducting ac- tools were used to mark proposed sites and calculate their tivities related to water resource engineering planning and elevations [13]. The discharge analysis aims to plot the design. Recently, this technology is being extensively uti- flow duration curve (FDC) and calculating 40, 50, and 60 lized for hydropower potential assessment. In this study, percentile discharges (Q40, Q50, and Q60, respectively) GIS and hydrological modelling tools were used to assess using the historical flow data. The SWAT model was used the hydropower potential of various sites. The GIS analy- to calculate the discharge at various potential sites. The sis consists of various criteria that are used to identify an flow data from the two available gauges (Shwesaryan and apt site, such as the order of stream, gradient and the min- Hsipaw) in the Myitnge River were further manipulated imum distance between two hydropower stations.

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