Israeli Politics Have Been People Infected with Coronavirus As Reconfigured Into Pro-Netanyahu and Anti-Netanyahu Groupings

AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL REVIEW

VOLUME 46 No. 3 MARCH 2021

AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL & JEWISH AFFAIRS COUNCIL

AN ELECTION LIKE NO OTHER

The unprecedented politics of Israel’s March 23 pandemic-era poll

CONSPIRACIES FOR KIDS A GAME OF JAKARTA’S HISTORY OR HIS NUCLEAR CHICKEN JIHADISM PROBLEM STORY? An exclusive exposé of children’s books Iran sets itself on a Islamist extremism Former US Presi- that promote hate and extremism .PAGE 21 collision course with following the dent Obama’s the Biden Adminis- release of Abu Bakar misleading Mideast tration ...... PAGE 24 Bashir ...... PAGE 28 claims ...... PAGE 31 NAME OF SECTION

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AIR – March 2021 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL VOLUME 46 No. 3 REVIEW MARCH 2021 EDITOR’S NOTE NAME OF SECTION he March edition of the AIR focusses on analysing Israel’s unusually complex ON THE COVER Telection campaign in the lead up to the fourth national vote in two years on A worker from the Central Election March 23. Commission in Israel wearing a full Amotz Asa El explains why this election is looking very challenging for long- protective suit during a media demon- serving incumbent PM Binyamin Netanyahu, while Times of Israel Editor David stration of special polling stations for Horovitz explores how traditional left/right blocs in Israeli politics have been people infected with coronavirus as reconfigured into pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu groupings. part of preparations for the upcoming In addition, Ahron Shapiro breaks down the campaign messaging of all of Is- rael’s significant political parties, while Sean Savage speaks to experts about the Israeli general elections, in Shoham, implications of Palestinian plans to hold their own elections in a few months. Israel, Feb. 23 2021. (Credit: Abir Sultan/EPA/AAP) Also featured this month are American academic Charles Lipson’s look at how Israel came to be the world leader in coronavirus vaccinations, and Australian academic Ran Porat’s compelling and frighten- ing exposé of extremist conspiracy books aimed at children aged five to 12. Finally, don’t miss: terrorism expert Zachary Abuza on the Islamist threat to Indonesia in the wake of the release of Bali bombing spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir; and Allon Lee’s deep dive into former US President Barack Obama’s re-writing of Middle East history in his memoirs. As always, we invite your feedback at editorial@aijac.org.au.

Tzvi Fleischer CONTENTS FEATURE STORIES REGULAR COLUMNS AN ELECTION FROM THE EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN LIKE NO OTHER COLIN RUBENSTEIN ...... PAGE 4 ...... PAGE 5 BY AMOTZ ASA-EL WORD FOR WORD Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu SCRIBBLINGS faces the verdict of the voters – TZVI FLEISCHER ...... PAGE 6 again... Even though he and his party, the Likud, are lead- DECONSTRUCTION ZONE ing handsomely in all polls... Israel’s fourth election in less FRIENDS OF ISRAEL INITIATIVE ...... PAGE 7 than two years looks markedly different from the previous ...... PAGE 12 ASIA WATCH three. MICHAEL SHANNON ...... PAGE 8 ISRAEL’S LEAST IDEOLOGICAL VOTE BY DAVID HOROVITZ ...... PAGE 14 AIR NEW ZEALAND MIRIAM BELL ...... PAGE 9 CAMPAIGNING AMID CAMPAIGNING FATIGUE BY AHRON SHAPIRO ...... PAGE 15 BEHIND THE NEWS...... PAGE 10 PALESTINIANS ALSO HEADING TO THE POLLS STRANGER THAN FICTION...... PAGE 11 BY SEAN SAVAGE ...... PAGE 18 NOTED AND QUOTED...... PAGE 35 CONSPIRACY THEORIES FOR KIDS Books promote hate and antisemitism IN PARLIAMENT...... PAGE 36 BY RAN PORAT ...... PAGE 21 MEDIA MICROSCOPE WHY ISRAEL LEADS IN VACCINATION ALLON LEE ...... PAGE 39 BY CHARLES LIPSON...... PAGE 23 THE LAST WORD IRAN’S NUCLEAR GAME OF CHICKEN JEREMY JONES ...... PAGE 40 BY LAZAR BERMAN ...... PAGE 24 ISRAEL, BIDEN AND THE JCPOA HOW TO USE OUR INTERACTIVE EDITION BY MICHAEL HERZOG ...... PAGE 26 ABU BAKAR BASHIR A FREE MAN • Tap/click to return to the Contents page BY ZACHARY ABUZA ...... PAGE 28 • All listed articles link to their page. BIBLIO FILE:HIS STORY, NOT HISTORY • Best viewed in your desktop browser or the Books (iOS) or Barack Obama’s account of the Middle East equivalent e-book reader app in portrait mode. 3 BY ALLON LEE ...... PAGE 31

AIR – March 2021 Australia/Israel Review Published by the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC)

Editorial Chairman Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM

EDITORIAL Editor-in-Chief Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Senior Contributing Editor POLITICAL STABILITY AT JEREMY JONES AM Staff Writers ALLON LEE, JAMIE HYAMS, AHRON SHAPIRO, SHARYN MITTELMAN, NAOMI LAST? LEVIN, OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD Publishing Manager hile it would be easy to view Israel’s fourth election in two years as a sign of MICHAEL SHANNON Correspondents Wchronic political dysfunction, there are reasons to be optimistic that a stable gov- ISRAEL: AMOTZ ASA-EL EUROPE: DOUGLAS DAVIS ernment is not far away. Perhaps Israel is finally on the road to recovery from its politi- NEW ZEALAND: MIRIAM BELL cal crisis, as it is with respect to the COVID crisis that has gripped the country for the National Editorial Board KEITH BEVILLE, RABBI RALPH past year. GENENDE OAM, GARY HERZ, MIRIAM LASKY, STEVE LIEBLICH, RABBI JOHN For one, rather than a replay of the previous rounds of elections, the March 23 contest LEVI AC, Hon. HOWARD NATHAN AM, has introduced new players, like Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party, and added more prime IAN WALLER SC ministerial contenders to the field, such as Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid and Yamina’s Naftali Bennett. AIJAC Current PM Binyamin Netanyahu will once again face judgement at the ballot box, National Chairman even as his trial on corruption charges hovers over him. Though indisputably the leader of MARK LEIBLER AC Israel’s largest party, he still needs to find enough willing partners to govern, something NSW Chairman PAUL RUBENSTEIN that has become increasingly difficult with every passing election. Executive Director Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Yet he has shown extraordinary political skill in the past – a viable Netanyahu-led Director of International & coalition of the centre-right with a Knesset majority remains very much a possibility. Community Affairs JEREMY JONES AM Despite widespread criticism of his handling of aspects of the coronavirus pandemic Policy and Research Coordinator crisis last year, Netanyahu will make a case for re-election based on his strong diplomatic Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Associate Director of Public Affairs achievements internationally, a solid economic record, cautious yet attentive management & Operations JOEL BURNIE of Israel’s vital security challenges and his personal orchestration of Israel’s world-leading Senior Policy Analysts vaccination campaign. AHRON SHAPIRO, JAMIE HYAMS, ALLON LEE, NAOMI LEVIN, SHARYN On the other hand, his opponents – some of them long-time former colleagues includ- MITTELMAN ing Sa’ar, Bennett and former foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman – will doubtless go Policy Analysts OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD beyond criticising his handling of the pandemic. They will also be attempting to tap into National Media & Public Affairs Officer a growing sense among many Israelis that, after more than 11 continuous years in power, ARIEL ZOHAR and amid a corruption trial which increasingly preoccupies his focus and attention, it is Multimedia Designer AREK DYBEL time for Netanyahu to retire in favour of new blood – someone with different policies, Events Coordinator HELEN BRUSTMAN OAM messages and/or style of governance. Administration One encouraging sign at this election is indications that Israel’s Arab citizens are engag- MELBOURNE: ROSEMARY SANDLER, RENA LANGBERG ing with the country’s legislature in a more politically diverse way than in the past. SYDNEY: LOUISE DE MESQUITA The Arab party Ra’am has reversed the traditional reluctance of Israeli Arab parties to Israel Liaison PETER ADLER support a Zionist-led coalition and has been expressing a willingness to consider support- Founding Chairmen ISADOR MAGID AM (OBM) ing the next Israeli government in exchange for new and expanded programs to meet the ROBERT ZABLUD (OBM) pressing needs of Israeli Arab communities. HEAD OFFICE Indeed, Israeli Arabs also have a good chance of entering the Knesset on the Labor and Level 1, 22 Albert Road, South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia Meretz lists, and, for the first time, an Israeli Arab appears on the nationalist Likud slate. Telephone: (03) 9681 6660 Fax: (03) 9681 6650 Yet paradoxically and disappointingly, the same Likud that placed an Arab Israeli on its list Email: [email protected] cynically played matchmaker for the anti-Arab OtzmaYehudit and far-right Religious Zionism SYDNEY OFFICE 140 William Street parties, convincing the latter to unite with the former for the sake of salvaging some votes from East Sydney, NSW 2011, Australia Telephone: (02) 9360 5415 the very fringes of politics. Deplorably, this barefaced horse-trading will likely result in bringing Email: [email protected] unrepentant followers of the late racist demagogue Rabbi Meir Kahane into the Knesset. SUBSCRIPTIONS Yet whatever happens on March 23, what’s certain is that Israel’s leaders post-election Please send all remittances, changes of address and subscription inquiries to: will face many of the same challenges the country is experiencing today, only hopefully Australia/Israel Review Level 1, 22 Albert Road with a fresh mandate to act. South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia ISSN No. 1442-3693 Completion of the country’s vaccination program is a top priority, as is charting a Print Post Approved – 100007869 recovery for the nation’s economy, which saw its GDP shrink and deficits and unemploy- 4 www.aijac.org.au ment soar in 2020 as a result of COVID-19.

AIR – March 2021 Israel’s next government will also need to work hard to it returns to full compliance with the terms of the 2015 heal the rifts in society that grew during the darkest days nuclear deal known as the JCPOA. of the pandemic, with polls showing a large drop in social But all conceivable Israeli leaders will also urge US solidarity and cohesion over recent months due largely to and EU negotiators to retain valuable negotiating leverage controversies over adherence to coronavirus restrictions essential for pressuring Teheran to permanently extend EDITORIAL within some sectors of Israeli society. and strengthen that totally inadequate deal – which not The government, however it is comprised, will cer- only ignored Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional tainly seek to expand the circle of Arab and Muslim coun- aggression, but has actually brought the Iranians closer to tries that have normalised “Whatever happens on March 23, what’s crossing the nuclear threshold relations with the Jewish state thanks to its sunset clauses under the landmark Abraham certain is that Israel’s leaders post-election and other flaws. Accords and, just as impor- will face many of the same challenges the Despite everything, Israel’s tantly, validated the right country is experiencing today, only hope- robust democracy has suc- of the Jewish people to be fully with a fresh mandate to act” cessfully weathered a very regarded as a legitimate part difficult time over the last of the region where they became a people. two years and doubtless will continue to do so even if this It will have to continue to put considerable effort into election also proves inconclusive and leads to yet another preserving and building Israel’s special relationship with its early trip to the ballot box. But we join the vast majority most important ally, the United States. of Israelis in hoping it does not have to face this test and Based on past experience and the record of the vast badly needed, stable, effective government returns after majority of candidates, we know that the next Israeli gov- March 23. ernment will work constructively with American negotiators to try to find ways to nurture and preserve paths to CONGRATULATIONS TO peace with the Palestinians, even if all sides acknowledge that conditions are not ripe for an agreement to end the RABBI DR JOHN LEVI AC conflict in the near future. AIJAC wishes a hearty mazel tov to editorial board member No conceivable Israeli leader will be prepared to stand Rabbi Dr John Levi AC for his elevation to Australia’s highest aside and allow one of the world’s most dangerous regimes civilian honour, the Companion of the Order of Australia, in – and foremost sponsor of terrorism – to build the world’s this year’s Australia Day awards. Rabbi Levi received the award most dangerous weapons. Therefore, first and foremost, for “eminent service to Judaism through seminal roles with re- it is a top priority for the next Israeli government to ligious, community and historical organisations, to the advance- persuade the US, Europe and other major international ment of interfaith understanding, tolerance and collaboration, stakeholders to refrain from easing sanctions on Iran until and to education.”

fuges, and a weapons capability… Strategically, it would present WORD an intolerable threat to Israel and apparently spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.” FOR WORD IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi offering strong criticism of the plans to return to the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran (JNS, Jan. 28). “President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today by phone with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. The President affirmed his “If we notice the slightest mistake on the part of the Zionist re- personal history of steadfast commitment to Israel’s security... gime towards the regime of the Islamic republic, we will strike Together, the leaders discussed the importance of continued both the missile bases, which, according to them, are intended close consultation on regional security issues, including Iran. to strike Iran, and in the shortest time will level Haifa and Tel The President emphasised US support for the recent normalisa- Aviv to the ground.” tion of relations between Israel and countries in the Arab and Iranian military spokesman Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi respond- Muslim world.” ing to Kochavi’s remarks (Israel Hayom, Jan. 28). Media announcement regarding the first telephone call between Joe Biden as US President and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin “When the ICC investigates Israel for fake war crimes, this is Netanyahu (White House, Feb. 17). pure antisemitism ... the court established to prevent atrocities like the Nazi Holocaust against the Jewish people is now target- “[A] return to the nuclear deal from 2015 or even a similar deal ing the one state of the Jewish people.” with a few improvements is bad and wrong… operationally and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on the International strategically. Operationally, because it would again allow at its Criminal Court granting itself jurisdiction to investigate claims of war end, or before, the Iranians to enrich uranium, develop centri- crimes in the “State of Palestine” (Times of Israel, Feb. 6). 5

AIR – March 2021 weapons, but, unlike in past such speeches, he made no mention of the fatwa, saying only that “Islamic thought and principles” were the reasons Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons. Moreover, in what seemed to be a veiled threat COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Tzvi Fleischer along similar lines to Alavi, he added, “The international Zionist clown is constantly saying ‘We won’t allow Iran FATWA CHANCE to obtain nuclear weapons’ – but he should be told that Here’s a quote everyone who is following the debate if the Islamic Republic [of Iran] decided to obtain nuclear about Iran’s nuclear program should be aware of. It comes weapons, neither you [Israel] nor those greater than you from Iran’s Intelligence Minister, Mahmoud Alavi, a man [the US] would be able to stop it.” thought to be quite close to Iran’s Supreme Ruler, Ayatol- The truth is the fatwa was always a red herring, despite lah Ali Khamenei. Alavi said this on Iranian state television its past use by both regime spokespeople and apologists on Feb 8: for the regime. Even though the fatwa has been repeatedly “Our nuclear program is a peaceful program and the Supreme mentioned by regime leaders as part of their propaganda Leader clearly said in his fatwa that producing nuclear weapons efforts arguing their nuclear program was always peaceful, is against religious law and the Islamic Republic will not pursue the text of this fatwa has never actually been published – it and considers it forbidden. But unlike all of Khamenei’s other let me tell you, if you corner a cat fatwas. Which is odd in itself. it might behave differently than a But even more interestingly, cat roaming free. If they push Iran the Iranian Government released in that direction, it would not be an information sheet about the Iran’s fault but the fault of those who fatwa which says it is based on an pushed Iran.” anti-chemical weapons fatwa is- He was referring to a sup- sued by Khamenei’s predecessor, posed fatwa (religious ruling) Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Yet issued by Khamenei in 2003, Khomeini reportedly reversed forbidding the production of nu- that fatwa during the 1980-88 clear weapons. Many defenders Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s supposed Iran-Iraq War, and Iran employed of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive prohibition on nuclear weapons is now being watered down chemical weapons during that (Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Plan of Action nuclear deal have war (as did Iraq, on an even referred to the supposed fatwa in arguing that Iran can be larger scale). The US State Department assesses that Iran trusted not to use the deal to pursue nuclear weapons. is currently pursuing chemical weapons capabilities – and Alavi was not only implying that the fatwa might not Iran is also thought to have helped expand the chemical apply in some circumstances, but more than this, he was weapons program of its ally Syria. also hinting what those circumstances were. He made Moreover, we know from the Iranian nuclear archives the remarks above in the context of making the case that captured by Israel in 2018 that Iran had concrete plans to sanctions against Iran must be lifted – which is the Ira- build five nuclear warheads before 2003, and that these nian regime’s consistent message to the outside world at plans were only partially suspended after that. the moment. In other words, he was implicitly saying, if In other words, the never-published fatwa was likely in- sanctions are not lifted, Iran might have no choice but to tended merely as an order to pause Iran’s nuclear weapons build nuclear weapons. This does not seem like a very high program due to growing international scrutiny. Iran con- barrier to reversing the fatwa’s supposedly comprehensive tinued developing its capability to build nuclear weapons, religious prohibition on nuclear weapons. but was not going to actually build them until the time was Nor was Alavi alone in sending such messages in recent propitious, so the fatwa prohibited actually building them, weeks. Even more explicit was former Iranian diplomat but not working on them, until that point. When the re- Amir Mousavi, who told a Lebanese television station on gime decides the time is right, the fatwa would be no more Jan. 30, “A fatwa is issued in accordance with developing of a barrier to constructing those nuclear weapons than circumstances. Therefore, I believe that if the Americans Khomeini’s chemical weapons prohibition was to Iran’s and Zionists act in a dangerous manner, the fatwa might be past and current alleged chemical weapons stockpiles. changed.” Alavi, Mousavi and Khamenei were also probably trying And Supreme Leader Khamenei himself has appeared to pre-emptively blame America, Israel and others who to join this game of signalling regarding the fatwa’s in- oppose Iran’s aggressive rogue behaviour for “pushing” Iran ability to stop Iran. In a speech to the Assembly of Experts toward atomic arms despite Teheran’s supposed peaceful 6 on Feb. 22, Khamenei denied that Iran wanted nuclear intentions.

AIR – March 2021 The world must not fall for this Iranian campaign of ex- As you know, the ICC is mandated to investigate and tortion – and needs to also recognise the supposed nuclear try the gravest crimes of concern to the international com- fatwa for the red herring it always was. munity, as a court of last resort, when national jurisdic- tions are unable or unwilling to do so. This does not apply

to Israel, which has a long-established and internationally COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION respected legal system with a track record of investigating such crimes and prosecuting individuals when appropriate. In addition to these concerns over jurisdiction, we The Friends of Israel Initiative believe that, by commencing this investigation, the ICC would actively undermine the prospects for peace be- A LETTER TO THE ICC tween Israel and the Palestinians. Recent months have seen Mr. Karim Khan, Chief Prosecutor of the ICC unprecedented progress in the Middle East peace process, Office of the Prosecutor, The Netherlands with peace agreements signed between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Building on these devel- Dear Mr. Khan, opments, the new US administration may now have an Congratulations on your election as Chief Prosecutor of opportunity to further negotiations between Israel and the the ICC [International Criminal Court]. We are the Board Palestinians. For an international body with the prestige of members of the Friends of Israel Initiative, an independent the ICC to support the abrogation of the Oslo Accords and body of former heads of government, cabinet ministers unilaterally endorse one side’s claims in a bilateral dispute and others… would cripple the likelihood of future negotiations. We are writing to urge you to re-evaluate the decision Finally, we have profound concerns over the effects taken by your predecessor, Ms. Fatou Bensouda, to investi- of such an investigation on the ICC’s judicial integrity gate Israel over “alleged crimes committed in the occupied and, therefore, on its mandate of achieving international Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, since 13 criminal justice, which is of the utmost importance in an June 2014.” As you are aware, the ICC’s Pre-Trial Cham- increasingly turbulent world. It is essential that the Court ber recently adjudged that the Court has jurisdiction over continue to observe the tenets of international law scru- these allegations. pulously, to operate within the mandate proscribed for it The Friends of Israel Initiative has opposed this investi- by the Rome Statute, and to avoid acting through political gation since a preliminary examination was initiated at the motivation or through the appearance of such. request of the Palestinian Authority in 2015. In addition to We believe that pursuit of this fundamentally flawed the substance of the allegations against Israel, which we firmly investigation jeopardises all of these objectives. We agree believe to be spurious, we have several other serious concerns. with the words of the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber’s presiding Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute and has not judge, Peter Kovacs, who wrote: “I find neither the Major- consented to the Court’s jurisdiction. The request for an ity’s approach nor its reasoning appropriate in answering investigation was made by an entity which is not a sover- the question before this Chamber, and in my view, they eign state within the terms of the Rome Statute, under have no legal basis in the Rome Statute, and even less so, in which only sovereign states may delegate jurisdiction to public international law.” the Court over their territory. This view is strongly sup- We wish you every success in your new role as ICC ported by the government of the United States of America, Chief Prosecutor… as well as the governments of Rome Statute state-parties Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia, Hon. Stephen Harper, Chairman, former Prime Minister of Canada, Uganda and Brazil, as well as by leading interna- Canada; Hon. José Maria Aznar, Honorary Chairman, former tional law scholars. President of Spain; Lord William David Trimble, former Prime In assigning itself jurisdiction, the ICC disregards and Minister of Northern Ireland, Nobel Peace Prize winner in 1998; undermines the Oslo Accords, an internationally binding Hon. John Howard, former Prime Minister of Australia; Hon. Luis set of agreements that remain in force and continue to be Alberto Lacalle, former President of Uruguay; Mr. John Baird, recognized by both Israel and the Palestinian Authority. former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada; Mr. Karl-Theodor Under the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian Authority has no zu Guttenberg, former Defense Minister of Germany; Ambassador criminal jurisdiction over Israelis anywhere in the West Giulio Terzi, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy; Mr. Bill Bank, the Gaza Strip or East Jerusalem. That jurisdiction, Richardson, former Governor of New Mexico; Ambassador Zoran by agreement of both Israel and the Palestinian Author- Jolevski, former Minister of Defense and Ambassador of Macedo- ity, remains with Israel alone. Therefore, even if it were a nia; Mr. Uri Rosenthal, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the state-party, the Palestinian Authority could not delegate Netherlands; Mr. Carlos Bustelo, former Minister of Industry and any such authority to the ICC. Energy of Spain; Mr. Elliot Abrams, former United States Spe- 7

AIR – March 2021 cial Representative for Iran and Venezuela; Col. Richard Kemp, of the port. The naval base reportedly also houses Israeli former British Army Commander; Professor Andrew Roberts, British nuclear weapons-capable submarines. historian, visiting professor at King’s College London; Mr. Carlos Israel is taking heed of these warnings to some degree, Alberto Montaner, Exiled Cuban author and journalist; Mrs. recently denying a Hong Kong firm’s investment bid worth COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Fiamma Nirenstein, Italian journalist, author and politician; Mr. US$1.5bn to build Israel’s Sorek B desalination plant, in George Weigel, Distinguished Senior Fellow of the Ethics and Pub- favour of the Tel Aviv-based IDE Technologies. Israel also lic Policy Center; Mr. Rafael Bardají, Executive Director, Friends of established a foreign investment oversight committee in Israel Initiative. 2019, and after an independent review by Israel’s Ministry of Defence and consultations with Washington, Jerusalem is expected to exclude Chinese companies from tendering to build Israel’s 5G infrastructure. Now a Washington think tank, the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), has weighed in, Michael Shannon arguing in a new report that China’s involvement in Israel could undermine the US-Israel strategic relationship, and BALANCING ACT calling for the US to assist Israel in protecting itself against Israel is but one among many middle power countries Chinese exploitation, including elevated intelligence-shar- placed in a bind by the emergent superpower rivalry ing and expanded US investment in Israel’s infrastructure between China and the United States, trying to balance its and technology sectors. burgeoning economic relationship with the former and its JINSA’s report, titled “Curtailing Chinese Investment security and diplomatic ties with the latter. in Israel: A Comprehensive and Cooperative US-Israeli Relations between Israel and China are currently the Strategy,” expresses strong concern over the Haifa port widest-reaching since diplomatic normalisation in 1992, deal, and that “Israel could find itself outside of trusted US with China now Israel’s second-largest trading partner. Since military, financial, commercial, and technological net- China emerged as the world’s second-largest economy in works, unless it acts decisively” to limit Chinese invest- 2010, advanced technology has been the national priority in ments in the country. its 12th Five Year Plan and it has turned to the ‘Start-up Na- The pro-Israel think tank argues that China is aiming to tion’ for innovative solutions to its domestic needs. fuel and expand its own military and industrial influence Since then, bilateral trade between Israel and China has by buying and investing in Israeli technology. “Beijing’s doubled, with US$11.53 billion in Chinese capital flow- strategy seeks to turn economic power into geopolitical ing into Israeli tech firms and infrastructure contracts. dominance and civilian technology into a military advan- Meanwhile, the latest figures show Israeli exports to China tage,” the report added. amounted to US$548.5 million in January 2021, compared Finally, the report advocates that the United States and to US$355.4 million dollars in the same month last year. Israel sign a new bilateral investment treaty and update the But the growing relationship has caused growing unease US-Israel Free Trade Agreement. in Washington. Last year, then-US Secretary of State Mike Another perspective recently appeared in Israel’s Pompeo called on Israeli officials to cease Chinese invest- Haaretz newspaper, where Gedaliah Afterman and Theresa ments and partnerships in the country, claiming that it Hoffmann of the Abba Eban Institute for International Di- put “Israeli citizens at risk” and compromised intelligence plomacy at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya noted sharing, communications and security issues between the that China “has substantially expanded its engagement in US and Israel. the Middle East in ways that are already altering it,” posi- Of foremost concern is China’s investment in Israel’s tioning itself as the largest investor in the Middle East and Port of Haifa. In June 2019, despite US pressure on Israel, the largest trading partner of the Arab League. Chinese company Shanghai International Port Group “Israel simply can no longer think about the Middle (SIPG) secured a 25-year contract to build and operate a East without thinking about China. It has no substitute for large commercial shipping port on the Mediterranean, set the United States – certainly not on the defence and di- to begin operations in 2021. Israel recouped US$290m in plomacy fronts, but China’s growing importance on other the deal. fronts is already a reality,” they argue. US authorities have expressed concerns that the Chi- “A clear strategy and comprehensive policies vis-à-vis nese company would be operating adjacent to an Israeli China, signalling reassurance to the US that its concerns naval base where ships of the US Sixth Fleet frequently are addressed while reflecting a longer-term approach dock and could potentially collect intelligence. The US towards the Middle Kingdom, will lower risks of strategic has cautioned that its Navy might no longer use the base if mistakes with both Washington and Beijing – mistakes that 8 the Chinese state-owned company takes over management Israel, dependent on both, cannot afford.”

AIR – March 2021 In a 2019 tweet, she described Mary and Joseph, the mother and father of Jesus, as “Palestinian refugees”. That same year, she also accused Israel of genocide at an anti- Israel rally. NAME OF SECTION Miriam Bell This year, she has shared a Jewish Voice for Peace post COLUMNS on her Instagram account accusing Israel of “medical CONCERNS OVER ANTI-ISRAEL MPS apartheid” for not providing COVID-19 vaccines to the Times of uncertainty and fear, such as we are living Palestinians. through in this COVID-ravaged world, have long been known The Israel Institute said Ghahraman’s post was “dis- to prompt a growth in intolerance, racism and hatred. appointing” and that the comparison to apartheid was And, as Jewish people around the world are well aware, “disgusting”. a common manifestation of this is a rise in antisemitism. NZ Jewish Council spokesperson Juliet Moses told New Zealand is not immune to any of this. Newshub that she has never accused any other MP of anti- Not only did last year’s Shifting Jewry 2019 (Gen19) semitism, but Ghahraman repeatedly spreads disinforma- survey reveal that 44% of respondents thought antisemi- tion and antisemitic tropes about Israel. tism was a problem in New Zealand, but there’s growing “If she wishes to criticise Israel, she has a duty, as an MP concern among the Jewish community about the anti-Israel and someone who professes to be concerned about hate movement – as personified by some politicians on the Left. speech and the marginalisation of minority communities in Over the years, there have been various MPs who have Aotearoa, to do so on the basis of correct, contextualised taken biased pro-Palestinian views to worrying extremes. information… The leaders of her party should intervene,” Current Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson Moses added. participated in a “peace flotilla” trying to break Israel’s In addition to Webb and Ghahraman, there are several blockade of Hamas-ruled Gaza back in 2016. Former other MPs who are members of either the Aotearoa Stand- Green Party foreign affairs spokesperson Kennedy Graham ing With Palestine Facebook group or a similar rabidly constantly criticised the Government for not condemning anti-Israel Facebook group, Kia Ora Gaza. Israel or offering greater support to the Palestinians on Israel Institute of NZ director David Cumin said New various matters. Zealand MPs belonging to such groups and engaging with However, more recently, there have been two MPs, one online hate groups mirrors some of the issues that the Labour, the other Green, who have been repeat offenders UK had when Jeremy Corbyn was leader of the Labour when it comes to fervent anti-Israel activity. party. Labour MP for Christchurch Central Dr Duncan Webb “An MP as prominent as Webb participating in an on- has long been an outspoken proponent of the Boycott, line group rife with vile antisemitism makes a mockery of Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel. the work done by the Labour Party post the 2019 Christ- In 2019, Webb claimed there was a “strong Zionist Jew- church mosque attacks and calls into question his fitness ish lobby” controlling US politics. for the role as public servant,” Cumin said. That same year, the NZ Jewish Council criticised him He added that the Israel Institute has written to Labour for his support of BDS. In a letter to leading figures in the Party leaders about Webb being an active contributor to Labour Party, including Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, the Aotearoa Standing With Palestine and to the Green Party Council said it saw widespread BDS activity overseas affect- co-leaders about the participation of some of their MPs. ing Jews in many countries by increasing antisemitism, and To date, none of the party leaders have responded. expressed concern “that promotion of BDS here threatens Cumin said there are myriad ways to support the the security of the New Zealand Jewish community.” Palestinians without having to associate with hate groups, Such concerns haven’t stopped Webb’s activism. In early “Likewise, there are plenty of legitimate criticisms of Israel 2020 he lobbied to prevent the Wellington City Council to be made without wading into conspiracy theories that adopting the International Holocaust Remembrance Alli- reflect ancient tropes.” ance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism, citing free speech But he noted that it was positive that New Zealand’s concerns. Human Rights Commission has said that it does “not con- Recently, the Israel Institute of NZ reported that Webb done, and are very concerned by, any alleged association is an active member of a Facebook group, Aotearoa Stand- of MPs with forums that express discrimination or racism ing With Palestine, which regularly features antisemitic and agree that antisemitism should not be allowed to grow posts and comments, including Holocaust denial. in New Zealand politics.” Meanwhile, the Green MP and current foreign affairs Cumin said he hopes the Commission will show leader- spokesperson Golriz Ghahraman has also become known ship on this issue, as the British Equality and Human Rights for a series of anti-Israel outbursts. Commission did with respect to the UK’s Labour party. 9

AIR – March 2021 BEHIND THE NEWS BEHIND THE ROCKET AND TERROR IDF air, land and sea forces practised REPORT a snap response to a regional war No rockets have been fired from scenario in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, Gaza into Israel since Jan. 19. including simulating hitting more than A Palestinian attempted to stab 3,000 targets in a single day. an IDF soldier on Jan. 31 near Gush In response, on Feb. 16, Hezbol- Etzion junction in the West Bank, lah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah threat- but was shot and killed. On Feb. 5, a ened that if Israel attacked Lebanese Palestinian drove onto a Jewish farm Gas for Gaza? An Israeli natural gas platform cities, “Israel’s home front will experi- near Ramallah yelling “Allahu Akbar” in the Mediterranean (Credit: Wikimedia ence things that have not happened” and trying to break into a home. He Commons) since the state was created. He also was also shot and killed. Work has reportedly already com- bizarrely accused Israel of killing On Jan. 29, a bomb exploded out- menced and is expected to be com- “many Jews in different countries be- side the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, pleted in two and a half years. cause they refused to move to Israel.” causing no casualties. According to In- dian counter-terrorism officials, as well as Israeli diplomats, Iran is considered ISRAELI STRIKES IN SYRIA IRAN LIMITS IAEA the primary suspect in the attack. The frequency and scope of al- MONITORING Israeli security agencies announced leged Israeli strikes in Syria have in- The International Atomic Energy on Feb. 15 that they had disrupted creased substantially since the begin- Agency (IAEA) reported in early Feb- attempts by Hamas in Turkey to ning of 2021. ruary that radioactive uranium was fund operatives in the West Bank via There was a rare daytime strike detected in samples collected at two front companies, seizing more than against an Iranian weapons shipment sites in Iran which had not been de- $US100,000 in cash and goods. travelling from Iraq to Syria on Feb. clared by Teheran as nuclear sites. The 10, and other strikes against numer- discoveries – most likely from sites at ous targets in Syria on Feb. 3 and Feb. Marivan and Teheran – indicate illicit QATAR BROKERS DEAL 15. Iranian operations designed to pro- TO SEND ISRAELI GAS TO Meanwhile an opposition-aligned duce atomic weapons. The IAEA also GAZA media outlet in Syria has claimed reported that Teheran continues to es- A soon-to-be finalised agree- that Iran is using a dummy container calate its breaches of the 2015 nuclear ment that aims to end Gaza’s chronic terminal at Damascus International deal by installing more cascades of electricity shortage by piping in Airport to store weapons, particularly advanced uranium enrichment centri- Israeli gas was announced by Qatari missiles and missile parts, using UN fuges in various locations and feeding envoy Mohammad al-Emadi on Feb. and DHL-marked containers, before them with uranium hexafluoride. 14. Converting Gaza’s single power distributing them to its proxies. Meanwhile, following a Feb. 21 plant from diesel to natural gas will snap visit to Teheran by IAEA Chief also save the Palestinian Authority Rafael Grossi, Iran has ‘agreed’ to (PA) millions of dollars and reduce air IDF PREPARING ITSELF only partially implement for three pollution. AGAINST HEZBOLLAH months a law passed in its Parlia- The deal involves a contract for The latest annual forecast by ment mandating that the Government the gas purchase by the PA from Israel’s military intelligence included curb IAEA monitoring of its nuclear Israel’s Delek corporation, and a warning that in coming months a program. Teheran announced on Feb. another relating to the construction few “fighting days” between Israel and 23 that footage from IAEA surveil- of the pipeline into Gaza. The EU is Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy terrorist or- lance cameras at nuclear sites would expected to fund the pipeline’s instal- ganisation in Lebanon, could escalate be withheld for three months, and lation from the power station to the into a wider conflict. then only passed on to the IAEA if Gaza maritime border, and Qatar will Accordingly, the army conducted a sanctions had been lifted. In addi- fund the extension to Israeli gas rigs massive surprise military drill dubbed tion, inspections at non-declared sites 10 in the Mediterranean. “Rose of Galilee” from Feb. 14-16. would be barred.

AIR – March 2021 On Feb. 1, Iran reported the Four days after Israel’s vaccine thority (PA) administered its first coro- launch of its newest satellite-carrying rollout commenced in December, navirus vaccines after Israel transferred rocket “Zoljanah”, which it said was the highly contagious UK variant was 5,000 doses of the Moderna vaccine to able to reach an altitude of 500 kilo- detected in four cases in Israel. It now support front-line healthcare workers. metres. Forbes reported that this devel- accounts for some 80% of new cases. This marked the second time Israel had NEWS BEHIND THE opment is seen as a big step forward However, on Feb. 15, the number of sent vaccines to the Palestinians, after an “for both Iran’s space program and its seriously ill COVID-19 patients in Israel initial 100 doses provided to Ramallah effort to develop delivery vehicles for dropped below 1,000. Meanwhile, a for medical personnel. possible future nuclear warheads.” study released on Feb. 14 revealed that On Feb. 17, Israel approved the 75% of new Israeli cases were amongst transfer of 1,000 Russian-made those below age 39 – the least vacci- Sputnik vaccines to the Gaza Strip. THINKTANK: IRANIAN- nated group. Initially the PA and Hamas accused BACKED MILITIAS In the Palestinian-ruled areas of the Israel of withholding 2,000 doses, but SURGED AFTER JCPOA West Bank, there had been173,635 later clarified it was 1,000 ‘two-dose According to research released cases by Feb. 22, up from 153,093 on sets’ of the vaccine. The doses were on Feb. 11 by the Tony Blair Institute Jan. 20, and 1,976 deaths. In Gaza, delivered after a two-day delay. for Global Change, “the premise that there had been a total of 54,460 cases as While some Israeli politicians had Iran would moderate its commitment of Feb. 21, up from 48,341 as of Jan. 18. opposed facilitating vaccine transfers to creating and sponsoring militias to Gaza, Israeli officials attributed the due to the thaw in US-Iranian rela- delay to ongoing discussions over vac- tions after the 2015 nuclear deal and ISRAEL PROVIDES cine transfer policy. sanctions relief for Tehran was false. VACCINE SUPPORT TO On Feb. 19, Israel agreed to inocu- The number of militias created by the PALESTINIANS late 100,000 Palestinians who regu- IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard In early February, the Palestinian Au- larly cross into Israel to work. Corps] surged after this period, and the Guard’s presence abroad peaked, it comes to Cuba, allowing it to carry out with the Quds Force expanding its late-stage clinical trials on Iranian citizens. operations in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.” It will also be using Russia’s Sputnik V The report added that these militia vaccine, even though Russia has prom- were the greatest threat to stability in IRAN’S IDEOLOGICAL ised quantities beyond its manufacturing the Middle East. VIRUS capacity, and is therefore exporting a The thinktank has also launched In most countries, the arrival of diluted version, dubbed “Sputnik Light”. an online tracker showing how the coronavirus vaccines is long-awaited This is given in a single dose, and only IRGC has spread its ideology around good news. However, in Iran, the Middle provides limited, temporary immunity. the world, undermining international Eastern country most severely affected by Meanwhile, a senior Iranian cleric, security through a network of mili- the virus, it is just another occasion for Ayatollah Abbas Tabrizian from the holy tias and soft-power organisations. It ideologically-driven paranoia, conspiracy city of Qom, posted on his Telegram identified 194 IRGC operations in 51 theories and regime incompetence. account on Feb. 9, “Don’t go near those countries since 1979. In January, Iranian Supreme Leader who have had the COVID vaccine. They Ayatollah Khamenei announced Iran have become homosexuals.” Apparently, wouldn’t accept vaccines from the US the Ayatollah believes that, like COVID, LATEST ISRAELI AND or UK because they are “untrustworthy” homosexuality is highly contagious. PALESTINIAN COVID-19 and “it’s not unlikely they would want to This is yet another example of Iran’s NUMBERS contaminate other nations.” barbaric attitude to homosexuality. Ac- As of Feb. 22, there had been a Iran’s officials, however, still plan to cording to a 2008 British WikiLeaks doc- total of 754,998 coronavirus cases in import the UK-developed AstraZen- ument, between 4,000 and 6,000 gays Israel, up from 565,629 a month ear- eca vaccine by describing the company, and lesbians had by then been executed in lier, with a total of 5,596 deaths, up jointly listed on the UK and Swedish Iran since 1979. A German intelligence from 4,080. By mid-February 2021, stock exchanges, as Swedish to avoid report from last June confirmed these more than 3.9 million Israelis – 44% Khamenei’s prohibition. executions are continuing. of the population – had received their In the meantime, Iran will use inferior Tragically, it appears it is even more first dose of the coronavirus vaccine, vaccines from other sources. These include dangerous to be a member of the LG- and 2.6 million had also received the Cuba, which is still trialling a vaccine, BTQI community in Iran than to catch second dose. Soberna 2. Teheran is very trusting when coronavirus there. 11

AIR – March 2021 COVER STORY NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES A CAMPAIGN LIKE NO OTHER

A TENSE TENTH ELECTION FOR BIBI

by Amotz Asa El

sraeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu faces the verdict of the Ivoters – again. Having recently begun his 13th consecutive year in power and 16th overall, Israel’s embattled Prime Minister is now the developed world’s longest serving leader after Germany’s Angela Merkel. It is a status he might lose following the March 23 vote, even though he and his party, the Likud, are leading handsomely in all polls. That’s because Israel’s fourth election in less than two years looks markedly different from the previous three. The most crucial difference is that Likud’s main rival in those contests, Blue and White, has disintegrated and no longer possesses a following roughly equal to Likud’s. Blue and White split last year when its leader, current Netanyahu visiting a coronavirus vaccine storage centre: The PM is Defence Minister Benny Gantz, decided to join Netanya- hoping the Israel’s successful vaccine program will boost his political hu’s coalition. His main partner and number two, former fortunes (Credit: Ashernet) finance minister Yair Lapid, refused to join him, and thus On the face of it, these seem to be similar challenges to became Leader of the Opposition. some that Netanyahu has already faced in the recent past. In this election, Lapid is again fielding his original party, For instance, former finance minister Moshe Kahlon left Yesh Atid (“There is a Future”), with polls predicting he will Likud and established a party called Kulanu (“All of Us”), win some 15% of the vote. Gantz is forecast to win hardly which in 2015 won nearly a 10th of the electorate. How- a third of that and may not even pass the threshold to enter ever, that party later dissolved. Similarly, former defence the Knesset. This leaves Likud and Yesh Atid – which looks minister Avigdor Lieberman left Likud and established likely to be the second largest party in the next Knesset, Yisrael Beteinu (“Israel our home”), which in 2009 won 15 according to opinion polls – with a predicted ratio of votes of the Knesset’s 120 seats. However, since then it has lost that is nearly 3:2 in favour of Likud. more than half of that following. However, while Likud can bask in its apparent defeat of Then again, the context is different this time around. the Blue and White challenge from the political centre, it Bennett and Sa’ar are attacking Netanyahu in ways he has must now contend with challenges from the Right. never been previously challenged from the Right. The key challengers are former defence minister The biggest change since last March’s election has been Naftali Bennett and his Yamina (“Rightward”) party, and the coronavirus pandemic. former education minister Gideon Sa’ar and his New Hope The crisis which has rattled the entire world since then party, which between them are currently forecast to gar- has added yet more contentiousness to Netanyahu’s already ner between 20-25% of the vote – potentially comparable controversial image, arming both sides of the debate re- 12 to the Likud’s predicted 24-27% garding his record and future.

AIR – March 2021 Netanyahu and his followers celebrate Israel’s vaccina- part of a broader picture. tion program, which has indeed been remarkable. There have been massively attended ultra-Orthodox Israel had vaccinated 3.8 million people by mid-February weddings and funerals in stark violation of the pandemic’s – 44% of the population. That’s twice as high a proportion as restrictions, with police apparently turning a blind eye. the next highest vaccinator, Britain. The rest of the world is In addition, some ultra-Orthodox elementary schools NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES well below these levels, The US and Germany, for instance, remained open while all other schools were shuttered. had vaccinated 11.1% and 3.3% of their populations respec- Many voters whose children spent a full year at home, tively at that time, according to “Our World in Data”. struggling to study through Zoom and with parents having Netanyahu, who did indeed personally lead the effort to somehow keep them busy and active, are angry at what to purchase millions of vaccines ahead of other countries, they see as a double standard. Some of them might punish is making this a central feature of his Netanyahu at the ballot box. campaign, claiming he led Israel to vic- “Beyond...pandemic issues, This may well help explain predic- tory over the virus. Netayahu also faces an tions from pollsters that Netanyahu and Netanyahu’s opponents point to unprecedented rightwing his Likud party, despite their handsome the pandemic’s exorbitant economic attack on his moral record” lead overall, are likely to lose roughly cost, and the Government’s haphaz- one-fifth of the 36 Knesset seats they ard policy-making toward it over the currently hold. course of last year, which they portray as “shoot from the Moreover, beyond these pandemic issues, Netanyahu hip” administration and political chaos. also faces an unprecedented rightwing attack on his moral The pandemic’s special spending, including swollen record. unemployment payments and compensation packages for businesses, resulted in a NIS 160.3 billion (approximately etanyahu’s original right-wing competitors, namely A$62.26 billion) budget deficit, equal to 11.7% of GDP – NBennett and Lieberman, avoided criticising him in the a shortfall Israel had not seen since the hyperinflation crisis wake of the charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust of the 1980s. GDP itself contracted last year by an unprec- that he is currently facing in court. Sa’ar has broken that edented 4.2%. pattern, and charges Netanyahu with imposing his per- Bennett and Sa’ar blame these numbers on Netanyahu sonal legal situation onto his party’s politics, and priori- personally, citing in particular his failure to pass a national tising his own personal interest in avoiding facing justice budget since the last election. This failure was indeed the over the national interest. Likud, Sa’ar said in a televised cause of the current early election, and Netanyahu’s oppo- address, has ceased to serve ideas, and instead serves its nents claim that not passing a budget and forcing an elec- leader. tion was the PM’s aim all along, in the alleged hope a new This assault, too, will be tested in this election, with Knesset would be elected which would pass a law postpon- New Hope offering voters a “clean government” ticket that ing his trial on corruption charges until he leaves office. is also impeccably right-wing, so much so that its candi- Netanyahu’s opponents also say that his Finance Minis- dates include former minister Benny Begin, son of the late ter, Yisrael Katz, kept improvising and imposing upon the Likud founder and guiding light, former PM Menachem civil servants, causing both the budget director and the Begin. director-general of the Treasury Department to resign, Netanyahu, for his part, hopes to offset these challenges instead of working collegially and methodically with them. by emphasising the peace and normalisation agreements he In terms of the policy itself, Netanyahu’s opponents, has delivered with four Arab states. especially Bennett, say the repeated sweeping lockdowns Just how this exceptional constellation of pandemic, of workplaces, schools and malls over the past year were diplomatic, and legal circumstances impresses voters is medically unnecessary and economically destructive. what will decide whether Netanyahu’s protracted incum- These contradictory impressions concerning Netan- bency will continue or end. yahu’s coronavirus record – positive regarding the vaccine If polls are correct, Netanyahu’s Likud and its allied rollout, less so with respect to previous pandemic man- ultra-Orthodox parties will end up with even fewer seats agement – may have cancelled each other out as electoral than the 52 they currently hold. That figure, which falls factors if not for the added controversy over the ultra- well short of half the Knesset’s 120 seats, is what com- Orthodox community’s response to the plague. pelled Netanyahu to create a coalition with Benny Gantz Netanyahu’s opponents charge that the Government’s last year. failure to shut down Ben Gurion Airport until late Janu- Sa’ar had made a very clear public commitment not ary was a surrender to his ultra-Orthodox political allies, to serve under Netanyahu after the election. Bennett, who wanted American students to continue flying back and however, has made no such statement, saying he is against forth to Israel’s religious seminaries. It was, they claim, such political boycotts. Netanyahu thus hopes Bennett will 13

AIR – March 2021 provide him the backing he will need to create the kind of This precedent makes it more likely that Arab lawmak- narrow, right-wing coalition in which he, Netanyahu, feels ers could vote in favour – or at least abstain – in a parlia- most at home. mentary vote to unseat Netanyahu and crown the liberal However, Bennett has been humiliated by Netanyahu Lapid, or even the nationalist Sa’ar, as his successor after

NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES repeatedly over the years, and is believed to have a deep this election. mistrust of the PM he once served as chief of staff. More- That is in the case the pandemic protest vote proves over, Bennett has worked well with both Lapid and Sa’ar. insufficient to unseat Netanyahu. Then again, Netan- Chances are therefore looking high that the three will yahu’s self-congratulatory stance as pandemic saviour and team up to unseat Netanyahu, even though this would ap- peacemaker may yet deliver him the victory he craves. pear to require a colourful and very broad governing coali- In ten prime ministerial bids over a quarter of a century, tion ranging from Lieberman and Bennett on the Right to including two defeats and three inconclusive elections, Labor and Meretz on the Left. Those two left-leaning par- such a victory would be Netanyahu’s fifth. From his per- ties are expected to garner some 7% of the vote, though sonal point of view, it would also almost certainly be the one of the two might push the other under the electoral sweetest. threshold. Another factor which could raise the prospect of Ne- tanyahu being replaced is, paradoxically, the legitimacy he himself lent to Israeli Arab politicians, whom he used to ISRAEL’S LEAST deride as anti-Zionists and supporters of terrorism. IDEOLOGICAL VOTE Netanyahu held talks with one such lawmaker, Dr. Mansour Abbas, a dentist with Islamist beliefs, seeking Abbas’ support for his coalition. Abbas, for his part – now by David Horovitz running as the head of his own party – has said only Likud could make peace, and called on his former partners in the or decades, when trying to simplify the presentation Joint List, a federation of Israeli Arab parties, to consider Fof survey data for Israel’s baffling array of parties backing a Likud-led coalition in return for expanded bud- during election campaigns, Israeli pollsters would divide gets for Israeli Arab causes. the competing forces into two blocs – right-wing and left-wing. On one side, you’d have Likud and its satellite parties, which latterly included the ultra-Orthodox. On the other, you’d have Labor and its allies, including the Arab-dominated parties, which might be set off in a slightly different shade to show they wouldn’t actually be invited into the government. That right/left, two-bloc chart fell apart after the elections in April 2019, however, when Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu party shatteringly prevented Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu from forming the coalition he thought he had sewn up, and thus sentenced Israel to the second of what have turned out to be four (so far) quickfire election campaigns. Lieberman was and is emphatically a man of the political right – a settler, a proponent of redrawing Israel’s boundaries to exclude some of its Arab citizens, a former Netanyahu aide and a minister in multiple Likud-led coalitions. There had been no doubt that Yisrael Beitenu belonged in that right-wing bloc. Except that, since its leader had deprived Israel and Netanyahu of a right-wing government, with devastating political consequences that reverberate to this day, it manifestly didn’t. Unfazed, the pollsters soldiered on with their two-bloc summations. In the last two elections, they produced their familiar graphic, but with minor modifications – right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties on one side; centre, left and 14 Arab parties on the other; and that curious beast, Lieber-

AIR – March 2021 man’s right-wing, anti-Netanyahu, anti-ultra-Orthodox to serve alongside Netanyahu nor promising not to, and Yisrael Beitenu, afforded a place of its own in the middle. instead declaring that he has his eyes firmly set on the Now, though, in the run-up to election number four on premiership himself. March 23, the whole easy-to-follow two-bloc solution has The trouble with this latest graphic representation is melted down altogether. The cacophony of competing par- that it still doesn’t quite capture what’s going on. Ben- NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES ties is certainly marked by the familiar left-right ideologi- nett might indeed turn out to hold the balance of power cal differences. But the next Israeli government is unlikely between the pro- and anti-Netanyahu forces when all the to be assembled on the basis of votes are in – but only if Likud, affinity between similar-minded the ultra-Orthodox parties, and parties. Yamina can muster at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats between or these are shaping up to be them. And that is something that Fthe least ideological elections our (rather unreliable) polls cur- in Israeli history. rently suggest is far from certain. Israel’s big issues haven’t If, by contrast, the other bloc, evaporated. Iran is closing in on the bloc whose only common the bomb. The army constantly denominator is the declared goal faces threats on numerous other of ousting Netanyahu, has 61 or fronts. The Palestinians aren’t A worker prepares materials for Israeli elections at the more seats, the pollsters’ graphic Israeli Central Elections Committee Logistics Center in going anywhere. The settlement Shoham, Israel (Credit: Gil Cohen Magen / Shutterstock) could prove highly misleading, in enterprise remains divisive. We part because Netanyahu’s osten- have a relationship to nurture with a new US administra- sible “natural allies,” the ultra-Orthodox parties that have tion. A need to build better bridges with Diaspora Jewry. stuck with him these past three elections, cannot be relied Domestic inequalities are widening. The social and cultural upon to stick with him again. If a Netanyahu-led alliance gulf between the ultra-Orthodox and the rest is yawning. cannot win a Knesset majority, they have intimated that And overshadowing everything right now is COVID-19. other permutations might be viable – including member- There is no shortage of parties old and new competing ship in a coalition alongside the likes of New Hope, Yamina for our support with policies on all these and other famil- and Yesh Atid. iar issues; it’s just that they do not line up in potential co- Numerous other permutations could also come into alitions on that basis. The question of right or left is, more play, including the very real possibility that, yet again, than ever before, subservient to the only 2021 electoral there’s no viable, stable coalition at all, and we are con- divide that really matters: for- or anti-Netanyahu. Never demned to yet another… (Sorry, I cannot bring myself to mind whether a party’s ideology is similar to Likud’s on complete that sentence.) some or other key matters. It’s a matter, almost solely, of are you with him or against him. David Horowitz is Editor in Chief of the Times of Israel. © This isn’t the fault of the pollsters, of course. And, Times of Israel (www.timesofIsrael.com), reprinted by permission, undeterred, rather than ditching their familiar two-bloc all rights reserved. system, they have thus far merely changed the labels. On one side, nowadays, they place Netanyahu’s Likud and its two dependable partners, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. And on the other side, they CAMPAIGNING – AMID group all the anti-Netanyahu parties, irrespective of their CAMPAIGN FATIGUE ideology, thus creating a graphic alliance of extraordinarily improbable political bedfellows, from ex-Likud minister Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party on the right, via Lieber- by Ahron Shapiro man, across to Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid and Benny Gantz’s shrivelling Blue and White, and on to the reviving ntering the final weeks before Israel’s March 23 Labor party of Merav Michaeli, and thence to left-wing Enational election, parties have unveiled their cam- Meretz and finally the Arab parties. paigns – while struggling to say something fresh after What they’re quite sensibly showing us, in other words, three previous campaigns in just the past two years. With is Netanyahu versus the rest. And in the middle slot that 39 parties jockeying for 120 Knesset seats – up from 30 was invented for Lieberman in 2019, we now have the in the last election – and at least four parties hovering Yamina party – a firmly right-wing entity but one, none- around the four-seat minimum threshold for entering the theless, whose leader Naftali Bennett is neither promising Knesset, competition for undecided voters is fierce. 15

AIR – March 2021 In the age of smartphones and social media, the tradi- ment benefits for the self-employed; term limits for prime tional campaign commercials which begin airing on Israeli ministers; limiting the number of government ministers; television a couple of weeks before an election, no longer legalising civil marriages; reforming surrogacy laws to in- carry the impact they once had. But while the medium clude members of the LGBTQI community and amending COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION has changed, the name of the game – crafting persuasive the controversial Nation-State law. messaging to convince voters to choose your party’s ballot paper once they enter the voting booth – has not. The New Hope (polls: ~15 seats; new party) following is a survey of campaign messaging by parties Slogan: “Gideon Sa’ar. Prime Minister for all.” likely to enter the next Knesset, presented in order of each Former Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar established New Hope party’s current popularity in the polls. in December along with other former Likud members who were unhappy with the party’s direction under Netan- Likud (polls estimate: ~29 seats; current yahu. Sa’ar has recently fallen back in Knesset seats: 36) the opinion polls after initial surveys Slogan: “Only the Likud will bring a suggested he might get 20 or more fully right-wing government” seats. Post-election scenarios suggest three New Hope’s ads are aimed at potential challengers to Prime Minister disgruntled Likud voters who support Binyamin Netanyahu – Yesh Atid’s Yair Likud’s right-wing policies but find the Lapid, New Hope’s Gideon Sa’ar, and party dysfunctional under Netanyahu. Yamina’s Naftali Bennett – but Likud One New Hope commercial shows has singled out Lapid as Netanyahu’s an Israeli flag shattered like glass, true rival, a matchup which polls best while a voiceover tells potential voters with right-wing voters. A recent attack that Netanyahu is to blame for Israel’s ad portrayed Lapid as weak on the political instability. “The one who economy, COVID-19 response and the broke [the system] can’t be the one to Iranian threat. Addressing the other fix it,” it says. challengers as an aside, the Likud’s cam- A Likud ad (top) shows a woman using a dat- As a response to the claim that paign ad warns “Every vote for Sa’ar or ing app and only liking men who have been “Only Netanyahu can bring about a vaccinated for COVID-19; while (bottom) a Bennett is a vote for Lapid, who will New Hope ad shows Gideon Sa’ar welcom- fully right-wing government”, an at- form a left-wing government.” ing former Likud minister Benny Begin to his tack ad by New Hope reminded voters Likud appears on track to receive party that Netanyahu had formed govern- nearly 25% fewer votes than it re- ments with many left-wing figures in- ceived at the last election, but the party is hoping that cluding Ehud Barak, Tzipi Livni and Amir Peretz, and that Israel’s successful vaccination campaign, led by Netanyahu, Netanyahu had recently been making overtures to Islamist will lure former Likud voters back to the fold. In tandem Mansour Abbas of the Ra’am party. with its campaign ads, Likud has also released apolitical ads aimed at younger Israelis urging them to get vaccinated. Yamina (polls:~12 seats; current Knesset seats: 3) Slogan: “Naftali Bennett. There is alternative leadership” Yesh Atid (polls: ~18 seats; current Knesset seats: 16) Yamina (“rightward”) party leader Naftali Bennett Slogan: “Sane government” soared in the opinion polls over the past year as chief critic Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (“There is a Future”) party is poll- of the Government’s COVID-19 response, only to fall back ing strongly, perhaps close to the high point it achieved in considerably when Sa’ar entered the race. 2013 of 19 seats, outdoing Sa’ar and Bennett. This leaves Bennett’s ads, like those of Lapid and Sa’ar, tout Ben- Lapid well-situated to be recommended for prime min- nett as an alternative leader to Netanyahu in his own ister in any alternative coalition which succeeds in dis- right-wing niche. Unlike Lapid, Bennett speaks as a trusted placing Netanyahu, or at least to get first go in a rotation figure on the right with whom Likud voters can identify. agreement. Unlike Sa’ar, Bennett can criticise the Government as Lapid’s ads explore the theme of an alternative “sane” someone who spent the last year in opposition. government, as opposed to what they call today’s “insane” Bennett’s ads have urged Netanyahu to stick to the Government, sometimes in humorous ways, other times in issues in the campaign, debate him and “let the public de- a more serious tone. Its logo for the election replaces the cide” which candidate’s plans are better. zero in the year 2021 with an image of a rising sun. Bennett has recently begun promoting a plan to ex- In one of Lapid’s popular ads, he lists reforms he prom- pedite Israel’s economic recovery by reducing taxes and 16 ises to pass within his first 100 days in office: unemploy- regulation using Singapore as a model.

AIR – March 2021 convincing the Biden Administration to take a strong stand Joint List (polls: ~9 seats; current Knesset seats: 11) against the Iranian nuclear threat, and that Israel’s success- Arabic slogan: “Dignity and rights” ful vaccination campaign, as touted by Netanyahu, could The Ayman Odeh-led Joint List is going into the elec- not have been possible without a public health care system tion without Mansour Abbas’ Ra’am faction, which has that was created by early Labor governments. NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES chosen to run on its own but is currently polling under The seventh candidate on Labor’s Knesset list, Arab the electoral threshold, raising the spectre that up to filmmaker Ibtisam Mara’ana, was disqualified by the Cen- three seats worth of support from Arab voters may end up tral Elections Committee on Feb 17 over anti-Zionist com- unrepresented. Arabic language social media by the Joint ments she had made in the past but has since disavowed. List focuses on major problems in Israel’s Arab community Her disqualification is expected to be overturned by the that the party hopes to target, including gun violence and Supreme Court. Nevertheless, the Likud and the far-right crumbling infrastructure. The party’s Hebrew language Otzma Yehudit faction have targeted Mara’ana in ads attack- campaign has yet to be rolled out. ing Yesh Atid’s Lapid, as he would likely require Labor’s support to form a government. Shas and United Torah Judaism (polls: ~15 seats combined; current Knesset seats: 16) Meretz (polls:~5 seats; current Knesset seats: 4) Slogans: Shas: “Israel chooses God.”; Slogan: “Only Meretz will fight for your values. Meretz, the UTJ: “It’s united or nothing!” home of the left.” For the purposes of brevity, and owing to their simi- Meretz social media ads highlight the issues that the larities, the Sephardic and Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox or party supports, such as fighting for civil marriage, and “Haredi” parties, respectively, are discussed here together. opposing religious coercion and West Bank settlements. For the most part, the reliable base Meretz had been criticised in the past for of both parties delivers between seven failing to include Israeli Arabs in realistic and nine seats for each without the need spots on its Knesset list, but this election for much campaigning, but both parties the party has reserved a spot for Arab edu- use ads to trawl for non-religious voters cator Rinawie Zoabi, and has been promot- sympathetic to their traditional and social ing this move in some videos. welfare-heavy agendas. In its campaign videos, Shas has used archival footage of de- Religious Zionism (polls: ~5 seats; current ceased but respected Sephardic rabbis and Knesset seats: 2) touted its credentials as a party that looks Slogan: “The only way to a right-wing after the needs of the vulnerable. UTJ has government” used its social media to shame anti-Haredi Religious Zionism party leader Betzalel campaigns by other parties, but is waiting Smotrich parted ways with Yamina’s Ben- until closer to election day to launch its nett in early January. own campaign. Yisrael Beitenu ad (top) shows Bin- At the urging of Netanyahu, who is yamin Netanyahu with haredi coali- seeking to ensure right-wing votes are not Yisrael Beitenu (polls:~9 seats; current Knesset tion partners: “The power went to wasted by going to parties that fall under their heads”; while (bottom) Labor seats: 7) ad features leader Merav Michaeli the electoral threshold, Religious Zion- Slogan: “Lieberman. The end of Haredi rule!” and the slogan “Truth in Politics” ism agreed to run together with Itamar Riding a wave of frustration over viola- Ben-Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit (“Jew- tions of lockdown regulations by some members of Israel’s ish Power”) party and the anti-LGBTQI rights Noam party. ultra-Orthodox community, Avigdor Lieberman’s secular- As part of the deal, Netanyahu also reserved a spot on the ist, right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party – part of the anti- Likud list for a Religious Zionism candidate. Netanyahu bloc – has been producing campaign material Religious Zionism’s social media is aimed at drawing that targets voters who support, above all, changing the right-wing votes from other parties in the bloc and it has current Government for one without the participation of focused its fire at Yamina, which it sees as its main rival. A Haredi parties. vulgar video circulated by Otzma Yehudit in the name of the Religious Zionism party smeared several Arab-Israeli Labor (polls:~6 seats; current Knesset seats: 2) politicians and was widely condemned. Slogan: “Truth in politics” Newly-elected Labor leader Merav Michaeli has been Blue and White (polls:~4 seats; current Knesset seats: 12) the face of Labor’s social media campaign. Labor’s vid- Slogan: “Honest government” eos have claimed that Netanyahu is a liability in terms of Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz has a well- 17

AIR – March 2021 funded campaign centred around his reputation as a clean Palestinian factions, the parties promised to “abide by the and honest politician, that includes front-page ads in news- timetable” of the elections, allow unrestricted campaigning papers and well-crafted videos. and establish an “election court” to adjudicate any disputes. Nevertheless, his party continues to flirt with missing The move by the Palestinians to hold elections this year

COVER STORIES the electoral threshold according to polls. A full-page open comes just weeks after US President Joe Biden was sworn letter in the Hebrew daily Yediot Ahronot on Feb. 22, signed in. The Palestinians have pinned their hopes on a more by former prime minister Ehud Barak and tens of other friendly Biden Administration after boycotting the Trump former top security officials, called for Gantz to pull his Administration since December 2017, when Jerusalem party out of the race in order not to waste votes that might was recognised as Israel’s capital, with the US embassy otherwise help topple Netanyahu. moved there nearly six months later in May 2018. Biden and his top officials have signalled a friendlier approach to the Palestinians, promising to reopen the PLO’s mission in Washington and to restore humanitarian aid to PALESTINIANS ALSO the Palestinians cut by Trump. Yet Biden himself has paid scant attention to the Middle East, particularly the Israeli- GOING TO THE POLLS – Palestinian arena, in the weeks since taking office. OR ARE THEY? However, it appears that with elections moving forward, the Palestinians may be attempting to force the Biden Administration to contend with their affairs, espe- by Sean Savage cially since it appears that Hamas – a US-designated terror group – will likely make gains in the election. sraelis are not the only ones headed to elections in the “The Biden Administration will undoubtedly welcome Ifirst half of 2021. Palestinians made headlines recently elections. Israel will also likely be cautiously supportive,” for an unexpected reason: the announcement of new said Schanzer. “The problem for both is that Hamas could elections for the first time in 15 years. win. This would bring us right back to where we started. Rival Palestinian factions Hamas It was the concern about a Hamas and Fatah agreed to an election government that prompted the timetable that will see the first protracted crisis we have been in elections held in the West Bank for more than a decade.” and the Gaza Strip in nearly a generation. ‘THE SAME OBSTACLES Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice REMAIN’ President for Research at the Foun- The last Palestinian elections dation for Defense of Democracies, were held on Jan. 29, 2006. In that told JNS that he remains sceptical election, Hamas won 74 out of 132 of the Palestinian announcement. Palestinian employees of the Central Elections Com- parliamentary seats, with Fatah “Cynics will say that this is mittee in Gaza work to educate and register citizens winning 45. Voter turnout was in preparation for parliamentary and presidential elec- reported to be nearly 75% in Gaza another episode of ‘Lucy and the tions (Credit: Abed Rahim Khatib / Shutterstock) football,’ with the Palestinians ges- and 73% in the PA-controlled areas turing yet again that they are willing to end their interne- of the West Bank. cine conflict, only to later renege,” said Schanzer, referring A Hamas-controlled government, which Fatah refused to the “football gag” in the well-known Charles Shultz to join, was sworn in two months later on March 29. The “Peanuts” cartoon. following month, the United States and the European “Optimists will look at this as an opportunity to finally Union suspended aid to the newly installed government end the Palestinian civil war and return to political unity. I due to Hamas’ victory. tend to be more of a cynic about this, having observed that By September of that year, Fatah and Hamas announced the rift has only widened over the years,” he said. “But one they would form a unity government, though they failed to can never be sure. It’s the Middle East, after all.” agree on its terms. By the end of November, talks were at After a two-day meeting in Cairo, Palestinian factions a dead end. A call by Fatah leader and Palestinian Author- agreed to an election timetable, and to “respect and accept” ity President Mahmoud Abbas in December 2006 for early the results of the election. Palestinian parliamentary elec- elections triggered fighting between the factions and by tions are scheduled for May 22, with a presidential vote set June 2007, Hamas had ousted Fatah officials from the Gaza to be held on July 31. Strip and taken control of the area, where it remains the de 18 In a joint statement issued by Fatah, Hamas and 12 other facto government today.

AIR – March 2021 Since then, there have been several attempts to forge One consideration is that Hamas – the de facto ruling unity agreements between Hamas and Fatah, as well as government in Gaza for more than a decade – now faces hold elections. However, both sides have not only kept many of the same pressures that the Fatah-controlled PA their distance but become bitter enemies, with Fatah has faced as the governing political body over the Palestin- cracking down on Hamas activity in the West Bank and ians. In the last round of elections in 2006, Hamas was NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES Hamas similarly viewing Fatah-aligned factions in Gaza still a novice to politics and could criticise Fatah without with suspicion. having a record of its own. However, in the Gaza Strip More importantly, Hamas is still very much engaged today, Hamas faces an array of challenges from other terror in a bitter struggle against Israel with a number of deadly factions, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular conflicts over the last several years and continued attempts Front for the Liberation of Palestine and even Salafi ex- to fire rockets at Israeli civilian populations that threaten tremist groups tied to ISIS. to escalate into a wider war. While on the surface they are all terror organisations, “The same obstacles faced by previous attempts of Hamas is held responsible by Israel’s Government for the reconciliations remain,” Hussein Aboubakr Mansour, direc- security situation in Gaza, and has been and will be blamed tor for Emerging Democratic Voice in the Middle East for for any rocket fire or terrorism coming from the coastal EMET (the Endowment for Middle East Truth, a Washing- territory. Similarly, Gazans hold Hamas responsible for ton-based thinktank), told JNS. civilian affairs in Gaza from social services, like garbage “There is a set of whole new pressures from the bot- collection, to education and healthcare. There have also tom – Palestinian discontent – and from above – regional been complaints about corruption levelled against Hamas and international. Egypt also seems to be throwing all its and its top officials. weight behind this,” he explained. “But the obstacles re- Qatar pours hundreds of millions of dollars in aid into main. Hamas is the Islamic Resistance Movement. Armed the Gaza Strip, helping Hamas to stay in power and to pay resistance is its identity.” its civil servants, while the terror group imposes high taxes Additionally, there are questions about the future of on imports, exports and businesses that have hurt everyday the Palestinian leadership. Abbas is 85 and reportedly in Gazans. Hamas has cracked down forcefully on protests failing health. His largely secular Fatah movement, which against the taxes. has controlled the PA since the mid-2000s, has become “Hamas now has to deal with as much popular frustra- increasingly autocratic and unpopular among Palestinians tion as the PA does and it is unclear how much … the in the West Bank. support of Hamas change[d] from 2005 till today,” said He also has no clear successor within Fatah. He could Aboubakr Mansour. face a leadership challenge from Marwan Barghouti, who “If elections are to be held freely, this will be the first is currently serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison electoral test for Sunni political Islam since the Arab for planning terror attacks during the Second Intifada; or Spring, which means that many regional actors are watch- Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah security chief in Gaza ing carefully. But an even more difficult question is what who now lives in exile in the United Arab Emirates after will happen if Hamas loses the elections. The likely answer facing charges in absentia by the PA. On top of that, a to all these questions is that nothing will happen either December 2020 poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy way,” he said. and Survey Research indicates that Hamas’ Ismail Hani- If Hamas does replicate its success in the last Palestinian yeh – who briefly served as PA prime minister in 2006-07 elections in the mid-2000s, then the outcome could cause and is the de-facto political chief in Gaza – would handily even more uncertainty. defeat Abbas in the presidential election (although Hamas “This is the million-dollar question. If Hamas wins, a recently told Al-Jazeera that it would not nominate a presiden- new mess will emerge,” said Schanzer, arguing that there tial candidate, Ed.). needs to be an emergence of new Palestinian leadership if “There is the question of whether Abbas is doing this unity and peace are ever to be achieved. because of health issues,” added Schanzer. “There is a “The key to solving this is for the international com- chance that he is allowing this to move forward because he munity to pressure the Palestinians for political reform,” has little choice in the matter.” he emphasised. “There needs to be new parties in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip to challenge the terrorist Hamas ‘REGIONAL ACTORS ARE WATCHING faction and the corrupt Fatah faction. Right now, there are CAREFULLY’ no alternatives to these terrible options.” Hamas also faces its own internal challenges. In the 15 years that Hamas has ruled Gaza, the area has Sean Savage is News Editor at the Jewish News Syndicate faced economic devastation as a result of its three wars with (JNS). © JNS (www.jns.org), reprinted by permission, all rights Israel and the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of the coastal territory. reserved. 19

AIR – March 2021 NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES WITH COMPLIMENTS

AIR – March 2021 “Living in muzzle-city (Melbourne) this last winter,” Conspiracy McLachlan noted in a recent article, “was like being on a dystopian film set. The city was named after Lord Mel- theories for kids bourne, but Lord’s [sic] real surname was Lamb – most apropos for obedient Melbournian sheeple being prepped NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES for their genetically altered destiny.” Books promote hate and hidden In her 2016 book Enough is Enough – intended for antisemitism adults, not children – co-authored with Gumshoe contributor and Holocaust denier Mary W. Maxwell, McLachlan talks about “Chilling Similarities between 9-11 and [the by Ran Porat 1996] Port Arthur [massacre].” Maxwell explains in the preface that the book shows that the Port Arthur massacre, ild and baseless conspiracy theories, often tinged in which Martin Bryant shot dead 35 people and wounded Wwith antisemitism, are bread and butter for a no- 23 others at a Tasmanian historic site, was actually “part of table Australian website promoting extremist and hateful a very well-planned effort by persons who would be in a content, Gumshoe News. In the previous edition of the AIR, position immediately after the event to control the police, I covered the promotion of Holo- the hospital, the media, and the law caust denial on that website. courts. Persons who could lie, plant This article focuses on a series of evidence, intimidate witnesses.” children’s books written and pub- Other conspiracy theories, fake lished by Dee McLachlan, the founder news and anti-Israel blood libels and editor of Gumshoe News. The books promoted by McLachlan include appear likely to indoctrinate young claims that the 1963 assassination of minds with dangerous conspiracy the- US President John F. Kennedy and ories, bias and prejudice. Instead of the 9-11 terror attacks were both teaching children to use logic, healthy “inside jobs” that were somehow critical thinking and reason, the books also masterminded in Israel; that an use scare tactics, teaching them to Israeli missile struck the USS Cole in reject logic and rely on fear – always Yemen in 2000; and a story about doubting and dreading governments, “Project Pogo & Project Zyphr”, scientists, businessmen and bankers. which she claimed were plots by Hidden in the plots of the books are Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency innuendoes and references to classic to kill Americans. antisemitic tropes. DOING IT FOR THE KIDS DEE MCLACHLAN Between 2012 and 2013, Dee McLachlan (whose birth A page promoting a traditional conspiracy theory McLachlan published five children’s name was Duncan McLachlan) was about bankers from the book The Big Fat Bank books under the pen name Dalia born in South Africa in the early Mae Lachlan. The books are all avail- 1950s. She settled in Victoria after immigrating to Australia able for purchase in Australia (for example, via Dymocks, in 1999 and later transitioned her gender. which ships the books from a US warehouse). Collec- McLachlan directed, produced and wrote the script for tively, the book series is titled “Awaken Your Kids” and several films. She won awards for “The Jammed” (2007), promoted though the website www.awakenyourkids.com. which dealt with human trafficking and sexual abuse, and Every book in the series includes an introduction, where her “Who Wants to be a Terrorist” (2012) featured a story McLachlan states that: about a reality TV show to choose the best terrorist. “When your kids grow up as informed, open minded and An avid anti-vaxxer, McLachlan actively opposes the questioning adults, they will have the insight to lead and choose Australian Government’s COVID-19 approach, while leaders who reject violence and corporate greed. The books are one claiming the virus is a part of an evil conspiracy to control early step to understanding the complex world we live in, and to humanity and reduce its population. Along with other encourage the desire to question and ask for truth.” extremists, she participated in an online group agitating Yet, truth is hardly a central feature of McLachlan’s against coronavirus lockdowns, which also included Aus- children’s books. Instead, the characters are situated in tralians Max Igan and Sufyaan Khalifa, both promoters of plots echoing and promoting crazed conspiracy theories antisemitic material. and lies, about governments hiding the truth while trying 21

AIR – March 2021 to control the brains of citizens, and about The book says: evil people of power and money and ma- “Well, about a hundred years ago, three levolent scientists – all of whom are white wealthy bankers got together in secret. And, men. behind locked doors, while they puffed on their

COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES While McLachlan is careful not to cigars, they plotted to make themselves rich. Very specifically mention the Jews as her vil- rich. lains, some parts of the plots in her books The bankers were greedy and wanted to be appear to be based on classical antisemitic richer than all the kings, all the emperors, and tropes and/or anti-Israel slurs. all the rulers of the world.” In the book, the bankers’ evil actions THE THREE TALL BUILDINGS include money printing, high interest The Three Tall Buildings is a gloomy and loans, political intrigues, destroying the dark story about the 9-11 terror attacks. environment and starting wars to divert It claims, for example, that Osama bin attention from their mischief. Laden (“an evil man living in a cave far, far, far away”) may not be responsible for THE PEOPLE WHO REFUSED 9-11 and that the impact from the air- TO BE SHEEPLE planes hitting the World Trade Centre in In another book, The People who Refused New York City was not enough to topple to be Sheeple, the plot focuses on “the the buildings. Instead, it says, “someone super-rich” (gathering at the Bohemian had put explosives” to take them down – a Groove) who conspire to reduce Earth’s lie refuted many times over. population and enslave humanity by plant- The story also says: ing mind-control chips into their bodies: “Then one day a secret message was sent out. “They [the super-rich] said: People are ‘Don’t come into the new city,’ one message vermin and it will be mayhem like mice in said.” a plague, we need to control them.” This paragraph from the book is allud- McLachlan throws a variety of conspir- ing to an antisemitic email sent using the atorial and fearmongering fables into the Israeli messaging software Odigo to two plot. For example, to control people, the employees of the company in Israel on the protagonists use money, mobile phones day of the attack. The message included and fluoride. They conspire to brainwash a general warning of an attack, without children in schools and on TV, buy the indicating a location. Similar messages are press and create puppet political leaders very common and sent daily. Unsurpris- to send people to die in wars. ingly, on Gumshoe News, the Odigo story Published almost a decade prior to has been presented as proof Israel was the coronavirus pandemic, The People Who behind the September 11 2001 terror at- Refused to be Sheeple is also the flagship of tacks in some way. McLachlan’s antivax campaign, presenting Another baseless conspiratorial claim vaccines as a means to take over human- about 9-11 advanced in The Three Tall ity: “Problems they’ll solve with a giant Buildings is related to the US stock mar- vaccinator and control all your lives with a ket, with the book suggesting that “Other global dictator.” people even put bets on that something bad was going to happen.” OTHER BOOKS IN THE SERIES The Factory that made Guns is a story THE BIG FAT BANK Some of Dee McLachlan’s conspiracy- about a greedy businessman converting an laden books for children ages 5-12 A second book, The Big Fat Bank, de- agricultural factory to a weapons factory. picts bankers as evil, greedy and blood- In order to boost his profits, he plants a thirsty, and appears to be loosely based on a classic con- bomb to scare the king into a war on a “kingdom in the spiracy theory that includes strong antisemitic elements. desert that was just minding its own business” – most likely The original conspiracy talks about three families – the a reference to the US wars in Afghanistan and/or Iraq in Rockefellers and two Jewish families, the Rothschilds and recent years, and possibly to 9-11. Sassoons – and their alleged plot to take control of the The Great Monster Corn touts conspiracy theories about 22 world’s most powerful political financial institutions. the effects of genetically modified corn.

AIR – March 2021 According to McLachlan’s website, she is working on The country could afford the mass purchases thanks several new children’s books: Felix and his Bum-Chip, The to decades of economic growth, grounded in high-tech, Brave Little Drone, Saving Hawk, The Electric Car, The Naked medical research, water conservation, sophisticated weap- Flyer and The Girl that came by Boat. ons development, cybersecurity and more.

It would be a mistake to judge McLachlan’s children’s To distribute the doses, Israel is depending on its ef- COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION books as ridiculous or harmless; they are not. These books fective public health system, which can reach the entire may well result in the poisoning of the minds of children population in emergencies. Israel has had a lot of prepa- between the ages of five and 12 with hatred and blind ration for those crises, unfortunately, after decades of rejection of authority, reason and logic, leading kids to threats from terrorists and hostile neighbours. Faced with accept wild and disproven conspiracy theories. And that is these ever-present dangers, the Government learned how not funny at all. to contact everyone quickly with vital information and respond to emergency conditions anywhere in the coun- Dr. Ran Porat is a research associate at the Australian Centre for try. These communication and public health systems mean Jewish Civilisation at Monash University, a research fellow at the that the Government can reach the entire population, tell International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisci- people where to get vaccinated, explain why it’s so impor- plinary Centre in Herzliya and a research associate at the Future tant and then execute this complex operation. Directions International Research Institute, Western Australia. In terms of the logistics of Israel’s vaccination program, the vaccines arrive at Israel’s Ben Gurion International Air- port. From there they go to an underground facility, run by the country’s pharmaceutical giant, Teva, with enough freezer capacity to hold five million doses. The doses are WHY ISRAEL LEADS THE then sent to 300 to 400 vaccination locations, established WORLD IN VACCINATION by the Health Ministry. Those locations not only include major hospitals but also drive-through stations, numerous small sites and more than two dozen mobile stations, all by Charles Lipson equipped to keep the vaccines at the required temperature: -70 degrees Celsius. o country has been more successful in getting the All shots are free, with priority for the elderly, health- Ncoronavirus vaccine to its citizens than Israel. Why? care workers and patients with pre-existing conditions. Three reasons stand out, and the third one is likely to “What we basically said to Pfizer and Moderna and to help people around the world. the others was that if we will be one of the first countries Israel can vaccinate the population quickly because it has to start vaccinating, very soon these companies will be a very competent, comprehensive national health system, able to see the results. It’s a win-win situation,” said Health based on several Health Maintenance Organisations, all Minister Yuli Edelstein. supervised by the Ministry of Health. The system includes This win-win was amplified when Israeli scientists digitised medical records for everyone in the country. figured out ways to improve delivery, beyond the manu- Israel bought enough vaccine. Earlier in the pandemic, facturer’s own ideas. One, approved by Pfizer, was to it contracted for millions of doses from Mod- erna. More recently, it agreed to buy millions more from Pfizer so that everyone over the age of 16 can be vaccinated by the end of March. To clinch the Pfizer purchase, Jerusalem gave the company two incentives: It paid well above the market price, and it offered to share medical data with the company – data that few other countries could gather. Israeli biostatisticians can pair the medical reactions of millions of vaccine recipients with each one’s medical history and demographic data. This will allow public health professionals worldwide to gain a nuanced understanding of how the vaccine works, both in the entire population and in various subgroups, such as women Public vaccination station against COVID-19 in Be’er Sheva (Credit: Olga Muka- over 80 or people with type II diabetes. shev / Shutterstock) 23

AIR – March 2021 repackage the large frozen packets of vaccine that were And despite a successful vaccination program, “herd flown into the country into many smaller ones, the size of immunity” is months away. pizza-delivery boxes. The small ones could be delivered Still, Israel’s rollout of the new vaccines has set the efficiently to remote sites. pace for the world. The hope now is it generates data and

COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES Reuters reported that Israeli doctors have also discov- distribution strategies that will help other nations achieve ered ways to get more than the advertised number of doses better outcomes. from each vial. Israel offered Pfizer something valuable besides a pre- Dr. Charles Lipson is a professor emeritus of political science at the mium price – it could provide the company with reliable, University of Chicago, where he founded the International Politics, comprehensive data on how well the medicine works in a Economics, and Security Program. Reprinted from the Jewish very large population. This data goes far beyond the 50,000 News Syndicate (JNS). © Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org), people Pfizer worked with in phase three trials. Equally reprinted by permission, all rights reserved. important, each recipient’s response to the vaccine can be paired (anonymously) with that person’s health record and demographic details. That’s possible because Israeli health authorities have maintained and digitised more than 30 IRAN’S GAME OF years of medical history for the entire population. Pairing this data with Pfizer vaccinations means that the NUCLEAR CHICKEN company and public health officials around the world can WITH BIDEN gauge how well the shots work with different groups, such as people over 65 with asthma or pregnant women. Is the vaccine more effective with some groups than others? Are by Lazar Berman there any rare side effects that tests on smaller populations might have missed? ith each step Iran takes to advance its nuclear pro- This data should be pouring in soon since, by late Wgram, a path out of the dangerous quagmire be- March, a majority of Israelis should be fully inoculated. comes even more murky. What have we learned so far? The earliest data covers On Feb. 23, Teheran officially suspended its implemen- the whole population, not subgroups, but it is very encour- tation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty Additional Protocol, aging. It shows that the vaccine is actually more effective which gave nuclear inspectors increased access to Iran’s than Pfizer reported from its phase three trials. By Jan. 30, nuclear program, including the ability to carry out snap six weeks after Israel began inoculations, more than 1.7 inspections at undeclared sites. million Israelis had received two doses of the Pfizer vac- “As of midnight tonight, we will not have… commit- cine. Another 1.3 million had received their first dose. Of ments beyond safeguards. Necessary orders have been those who received the full inoculation, only around 300 issued to the nuclear facilities,” said Kazem Gharibabadi, later showed any significant COVID symptoms (less than Iran’s envoy to international organisations in Vienna. 0.5%). Only 16 needed hospital care, less than 0.002%. A day earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Encouraging as this data is, the country has suffered said that Teheran could enrich uranium to 60% purity if badly from the pandemic. Israel’s lockdown has been the it so desired. US State Department spokesman Ned Price longest in the world [for any country as a whole, Ed.], and not said the comment “sounds like a threat” and referred to it everyone has complied willingly. as “posturing.” Analysts believe both the move to limit inspections and the enrichment threat are aimed at bolstering Iran’s negotiating position as it and US President Joe Biden’s Administration manoeuvre ahead of expected talks aimed at bringing Washington back into the 2015 nuclear deal. But even if intended as bargaining chips, they carry the risk of moving Iran significantly closer to nuclear weapons capabilities. “Biden is playing a game of chicken over who will reverse course first,” said Joab Rosenberg, former deputy PROUDLY SUPPORTING AIJAC head analyst in the Israel Defence Force’s Military Intelli- gence Directorate. “There is an extremely unstable situation here, and a vector of deterioration and Iranian prog- 24 ress toward a bomb.”

AIR – March 2021 going to be suspended,” Grossi said, referring to a confidential inspections agreement between Teheran and the IAEA reached as part of the nuclear deal. NAME OF SECTION eheran has been gradually suspending its Tcompliance with most of the limits set by the agreement in response to Washington’s abandonment of the nuclear deal, which provided sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment restrictions, and the failure of other parties to the deal to make up for the reimposed US penalties. In July 2019, Iran announced it had exceeded the 300 kilogram limit of its 3.67% Iranian centrifuges spinning away as Teheran goads the Biden Administration to low-enriched uranium stockpile. A week later it offer incentives to get them to stop (Credit: Inspired By Maps / Shutterstock) began enriching uranium to 4.5% at the Natanz plant. The 2015 nuclear deal limits the Islamic Republic to In September of that year, Iranian President Has- 3.67% enrichment, a threshold it long ago passed as part san Rouhani announced that “all of the commitments of a series of escalating violations of the Joint Comprehen- for research and development under the JCPOA will be sive Plan of Action between Iran and six world powers, completely removed by Friday.” The IAEA verified in No- better known as the Iran nuclear deal. vember that Iran’s heavy water stockpile had exceeded the Uranium enriched to 60% is short of what Iran needs JCPOA’s 130 metric ton limit. to make a nuclear weapon, but it would show that Teheran On Jan. 5, 2020, Iran announced its fifth planned viola- is going beyond the 20% to which it began enriching in tion, forgoing any limits on the number of centrifuges it January. operates. Levels above 20% are considered highly enriched uranium, or HEU, with few non-military uses. The jump from 20% to 90% enrichment, the level needed for most weapons-grade applications, is fairly simple, and any move to begin enriching above 20% is liable to raise major alarm bells. In 2013, Iran’s parliament pushed for a bill to enrich to 60%, which it said was allowed for nuclear-powered submarines. At the time it claimed it was developing such naval vessels, but today is not known to have any in its fleet, raising suspicions that the plans had been a feint. While Iran’s nuclear program progresses, the Interna- tional Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ability to keep an eye on Teheran’s nuclear program is moving in the other direction. On Feb. 21, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told reporters after an emergency trip to Teheran that Iran’s Gov- ernment would begin offering “less access” to UN weapons inspectors – involving unspecified changes to the type of activity the watchdog can carry out. “It is totally clear that from Tuesday [Feb. 23], the oversight of Iran will be damaged,” said Rosenberg. The move to restrict inspectors was in line with a law passed by Iran’s parliament in December requiring the Government to cease implementation of the Additional Protocol. With 44 stores Australia-wide, @GelatissimoAU “This law exists, this law is going to be applied, which find your nearest location at @gelatissimo gelatissimo.com.au means that the Additional Protocol, much to my regret, is @gelatissimogelato 25

AIR – March 2021 In January 2021, Teheran revealed that it was taking an American service member was injured, which carried steps to produce uranium metal, days after it resumed en- “no consequences for Iran.” riching uranium to 20% purity at the underground Fordo “Next they will test existing sanctions and whether they facility. will be enforced,” Goldberg predicted. “Unenforced sanc-

NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE According to a report on Feb. 19, IAEA inspectors last tions are the same as lifting sanctions.” summer found uranium particles at two Iranian nuclear sites to which Iran tried to block access. Lazar Berman is the Times of Israel’s diplomatic reporter. © Iranian authorities had stonewalled the inspectors from Times of Israel (www.timesofisrael.com), reprinted by permission, reaching the sites for seven months before the inspection, all rights reserved. and Iranian officials have failed to explain the presence of the uranium, the Reuters news agency reported, citing diplomats familiar with the UN agency’s work. The inspections took place in August and September of 2020, the report said. The IAEA keeps its findings secret ISRAEL, THE BIDEN and only shared the details of the find with a few countries. The Wall Street Journal reported the suspicious findings ADMINISTRATION AND earlier this month, without identifying the material. THE JCPOA IAEA chief Grossi tried to put the Feb. 21 agreement on inspections in a positive light, stressing that monitoring would continue in a “satisfactory” manner, pointing to a by Michael Herzog three-month “technical understanding” reached to ensure some type of inspections would continue. n January 26, Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lt. “My hope, the hope of the IAEA, has been to stabilise a OGen. Aviv Kochavi publicly warned against returning situation that was very unstable. And I think this technical to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran or anything similar, understanding does it, so that other political consultations adding that he had ordered the IDF to prepare fresh mili- at other levels can take place,” Grossi told reporters. tary plans for addressing the Iranian nuclear challenge. But the IAEA has refused to detail what the deal allows, For a military official to air such warnings is controversial and critics fear that it will still give Iran more leeway to in Israeli public discourse, yet the essence of Kochavi’s make progress in its nuclear program while dictating what remarks underscores the broad Israeli consensus on three kind of access international inspectors will have. crucial points: that Teheran never abandoned its ambition “Based on Grossi’s evasiveness, it doesn’t seem like he to become nuclear-armed; that the Joint Comprehensive achieved much in this agreement,” said Rosenberg. Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal left pathways open He noted the possibility that Iran actually made more for realising this ambition; and that a nuclear Iran would significant concessions but that Grossi agreed not to go pose a grave threat to Israel. into detail so as not to arouse criticism of the Government During his confirmation hearing a week prior to from Iran’s parliament, which nonetheless termed the Kochavi’s remarks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreement “illegal”. noted that in preparing to address the Iranian challenge, Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation the Biden Administration intended to consult with Is- for the Defense of Democracies, assailed the lack of de- rael and other regional allies “on the takeoff.” Jerusalem mands for clarity from the White House. welcomed this pledge and is eager to start discussing the “The US should not accept that the terms of this agree- issue; Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu tasked National ment are secret,” he said. Security Advisor Meir Ben-Shabbat with this mission. Ulti- While the Administration of former US President mately, Israel hopes to convince the Biden team to refrain Donald Trump had pursued a “maximum pressure” policy from returning to the original deal or, failing that, to high- against Iran, Biden has signalled a more conciliatory ap- light the most critical JCPOA flaws that must be fixed. proach, albeit while leaving the reimposed sanctions in place. On Friday, Biden said the US was “prepared to THE ISRAELI CRITIQUE reengage in negotiations with the P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear The political and defence leadership of Israel is deeply program.” concerned about President Biden’s stated plan to revive Goldberg said the Iranians had been testing their the JCPOA by going back to its original terms and then boundaries by violating the nuclear deal, and were now striving to make it “longer and stronger.” In their view, the seeing how far they could push the Biden Administration. deal does not properly cover the three main dimensions He noted an attack by Iranian-backed militias on Erbil in of a military nuclear program – fissile materials, delivery 26 northern Iraq, in which a foreign contractor was killed and systems, and weaponisation:

AIR – March 2021 • The JCPOA sunset clauses will ul- tives and have yet to exhibit the stomach timately allow Iran to become a nuclear for raising the stakes of Iran’s escalating weapons threshold state by legitimising brinkmanship. Israel is sceptical that it enrichment activities of a dangerous will significantly increase the pressure character and magnitude and removing if Teheran comes back into compliance NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE the international community’s author- with the JCPOA but refuses to move ity to thoroughly monitor the program toward an enhanced deal. as a whole, making it difficult or even impossible to prevent the regime from REDRAWING THE JCPOA— quickly leaping across that threshold. AND DRAWING REDLINES Even letting Teheran reach the thresh- Despite these concerns, Jerusalem old would likely inject acute instabil- is not rushing toward an Obama-like ity throughout the region, including a public spat with the Biden Administra- potential nuclear arms race. tion over Iran policy – it is preparing • Iran’s missiles are solely covered for dialogue. Israeli officials believe that by the feeble, ambiguous UN Security once they lay out their full findings from Council Resolution 2231, which has yet the captured nuclear archive, they will to slow the country’s missile develop- Iranian missile test (Credit: AAP) be able to make an impact on the poli- ment efforts since its adoption and is set cies pursued by an administration that to expire in October 2023. shares the goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran and has • Following the JCPOA, the International Atomic implicitly acknowledged the JCPOA’s flaws. Energy Agency closed the file on the “possible military As the two governments approach such dialogue, Israel dimensions” (PMD) of Iran’s program, ignoring its own re- is emphasising that the United States should not throw ports on the matter. Yet the archive seized from Iran by Is- away essential leverage in pursuit of “compliance for rael in 2018 uncovered new information about the specific compliance.” At the same time, many in the Israeli policy goals, scope, and progress of Teheran’s military nuclear community acknowledge that although President Trump’s program. The archive’s very existence reveals the regime’s “maximum pressure” policy exacted a heavy economic toll intention to preserve this know-how for future use. from Iran, it failed to stop the nuclear program or push • The JCPOA inspection and verification regime has Teheran back to negotiations. proven deficient in terms of short-notice challenge inspec- Where exactly should the line be drawn between the tions of undeclared sites and the questioning of related JCPOA’s original terms and former secretary of state Mike personnel. These factors, along with R&D on advanced centrifuges and other activities, have shifted the 2015 baseline to With compliments from which the parties are supposed to return and significantly shortened Iran’s timetable for reaching threshold status even if it comes back into full compliance. Israelis also fear that lifting significant sanctions in the process of returning to the deal would give financial oxygen to an unmoderated, emboldened Teheran, thereby facilitating its destabilising activities and depriving the United States of essential leverage for reaching a better deal. Citing historical precedent, Israelis also argue that diplomacy and related incentives cannot block Teheran’s path ANKA to a nuclear weapon unless they are constantly backed by PROPERTY GROUP robust disincentives and a demonstrated determination to follow through with them if needed – including viable military options. Israel’s “grey zone” campaign against Iranian Level 3, 179-191 New South Head Road military entrenchment in Syria demonstrates that such Edgecliff, NSW 2027 assertiveness can push back against the regime’s destabilis- Phone: (+61 2) 9302 3000 ing activities abroad and at the same time deter it from escalating in response. In contrast, the United States and its www.ankaproperty.com European allies appear to prefer relatively weak disincen- 27

AIR – March 2021 Pompeo’s maximalist terms for an improved deal? Ideally, do well to keep the following paramount factors in mind: Iran should be denied the ability to maintain indigenous Critical Israeli national security interests are at stake, enrichment capabilities and master the nuclear fuel cycle, and the Government is determined to protect them. yet many Israelis recognise that Washington is unlikely to Other regional allies are stakeholders as well and share

BIBLIO FILE NAME OF SECTION engage on this point because the train has long left the Israel’s concerns. station. Israel’s normalisation breakthrough with Arab states Therefore, they have focused on extending the and its campaign to counter Iranian activities in Syria have JCPOA’s sunsets by decades and establishing an intru- each given the United States extra leverage against Tehe- sive “anytime, anywhere” inspection regime. There is also ran in the nuclear and regional contexts. Washington can broad consensus in Israel’s Government on the need to ban capitalise on these assets in numerous ways not enumer- development of sophisticated centrifuges, properly address ated here. the dangerous dimensions of Iran’s missile program, and The Iranian file presents a major test for the Biden Ad- reopen the PMD file in light of findings from the nuclear ministration’s standing in the Middle East and its relations archive. with Israel. The best approach for both governments is to As for Teheran’s malign regional activities, the idea internalise lessons from 2015 and enter a comprehensive, of addressing them through renewed nuclear talks or continuous, and discreet discussion that focuses on con- a parallel negotiating track is not viewed favourably by structive ideas and shies away from public posturing. The Israel, which sees the nuclear file as the most critical is- stakes are too high for a dialogue of the deaf. sue and does not want it to be overloaded. Here there is some divergence with Gulf partners, who prioritise Iran’s Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, IDF (Res.) is the Milton Fine Interna- regional threat over the nuclear threat (though they have tional Fellow with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. often coordinated with Israel in expressing opposition to Previously, he served as head of the IDF’s Strategic Planning Divi- full JCPOA reinstatement). Israeli officials also worry that sion and chief of staff to the minister of defence. © Washington parallel discussions could put pressure on them to curb Institute, reprinted by permission, all rights reserved. their ongoing military pushback in Syria. In their eyes, Teheran’s regional activities should be countered primarily on the ground rather than being negotiated or given a pass for fear of undermining a nuclear settlement. INDONESIAN JIHADISM Furthermore, Kochavi’s speech highlighted the option of taking military action against Iran’s nuclear program, AND ABU BAKAR which Israel seriously considered in 2010-2012. Such BASHIR discourse is not mere posturing. It represents a deep belief that Israel must have a last-resort military option avail- by Zachary Abuza able in case certain scenarios come to pass, such as failed negotiations and continued Iranian nuclear violations up to a critical point, or a return to the JCPOA with no moves bu Bakar Bashir is a free man. The hate-spewing for- toward a better deal, which would eventually allow for Amer spiritual head of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), who later dangerous nuclear advancements as restrictions begin to declared allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), was released sunset. Israelis doubt that the United States will act mili- from Indonesian jail on Jan. 8. He had been sentenced to tarily if all other options to stop Iran are exhausted (e.g., 15 years in 2011 for providing financial assistance to run- diplomacy, covert or clandestine action). ning a terrorist training camp in Indonesia. For now, the situation is not yet at a boiling point, but It is another affront to the rule of law and a diplomatic it is slowly heating up. According to updated Israeli intel- poke in the eye to Australia. But will it have an impact on ligence estimates recently presented to the cabinet, Iran’s violent extremism in Southeast Asia? breakout time (i.e., how long it would need to produce On the one hand, at 82, Bashir is not a young man, and enough weapons-grade fissile material for one bomb) has unlikely to want to be re-arrested. On the other hand, he shrunk to four months, and it would need around 21-24 is an egotistical hate monger who loves the limelight. He months for weaponisation, potentially in parallel to its would chafe at having someone else assume the mantle of high-enrichment effort (assuming it does not already have jihadist leadership. a weaponisation task force at work). And so Bashir is likely to steer a course between those two ends. He will return to al-Mukmin school in central CONCLUSION Java, the spiritual home of terrorism in Southeast Asia that As the Biden Administration considers how to factor he and Abdullah Sungkar founded in 1972. He will have his 28 Israeli concerns into its developing Iran strategy, it would ego stroked by his students, who will laud his martyrdom,

AIR – March 2021 and lap up every word he says. He will have a platform and well-resourced ones. from which to continue preaching his vitriol. Politicians The May 2018 suicide bombings, involving entire will show up to kiss his rings for pre-electoral photo-ops. families including small children, may be seen as a manifes- But his release comes at a time when Islamist militancy tation of the frustration experienced by some JAD mili- in Indonesia is in flux, and it’s hard to see how Bashir will tants with their colleagues who were proving unwilling to NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE affect its direction. perpetrate the necessary violence. JAD attacks have largely The threat of IS never reached its terrifying potential focused on security forces, such as the November 2019 in Indonesia. Many groups, splinters of JI, followed the suicide bombing at a police station in Medan. lead of Bashir and declared bai’at (“fealty”) to IS and its No doubt, Indonesian security forces have been far leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, starting in mid-2014. More more proactive than they were with the advent of JI. The Indonesians went to join IS in budget and personnel of Indo- Iraq and Syria than ever went nesia’s elite Densus-88 counter- to join al-Qaeda in Pakistan and terrorism force was doubled in Afghanistan. 2019. There are now Densus-88 By November 2014, there forces deployed in every prov- were enough Southeast Asians ince. They continue to have good (mainly Indonesians, but, on discipline and commitment to a per capita basis, more Ma- the mission, and are intelligence- laysians) in Syria to establish a driven. Most importantly, they Bahasa-speaking military com- have significant political cover to pany. Soon after, they established do their jobs effectively. a Bahasa language school for their The Indonesian Government’s children, where they were filmed pressure on the online portal engaging in military training. Telegram was also important. Most importantly, 2014-15 While there is little it can do vis- saw a surge in Bahasa language a-vis encrypted person-to-person propaganda from IS media organs. messages, the closure of large This included recruitment videos, public chatrooms on Telegram appeals from militants in the field, was a huge loss for IS and JAD. weekly newsmagazines, and the Perhaps the high point for ubiquitous beheading videos. IS in the region was mid-2017, Bali bombing spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir: Now a free Four Southeast Asians joined man (Credit: AAP) when two pro-IS groups in the the senior leadership ranks of Philippines, assisted by foreign IS. And yet their record in terms of fomenting violence in fighters from across Southeast Asia, took over the Philip- Southeast Asia was decidedly mixed. pine city of Marawi and held off the Armed Forces of the And, to IS, the violence is the key. IS’s founding docu- Philippines for five months. Though ultimately a loss, it ment, The Management of Savagery, originally an al-Qaeda was an enormous propaganda victory for IS, which was manifesto to challenge bin Laden’s strategy, makes it clear then losing substantial amounts of territory in Syria. that the level of violence has to build to a crescendo, so As IS sought to return to its insurgent roots, it searched that people eventually acquiesce to IS control and imposi- for new battlegrounds from which to wage a global insur- tion of Sharia law. You cannot have an Islamic State without rection. IS encouraged foreign fighters from Southeast an orgy of violence. Most al-Qaeda leaders blanched at the Asia to travel to Mindanao, and yet, and while some did, scope of violence IS said was needed. it never really gained traction there. If the shift to a global There were attacks in Indonesia, to be sure, but they insurgent model was a strategic goal, its manifestation in were uneven in terms of lethality and professionalism. Southeast Asia has fallen short. Unlike the al-Qaeda-linked JI, which was very hierar- The horizontal nature of IS and its willingness to take chical and tended to micro-manage its attacks, the pro-IS credit for any attack, no matter how amateurish, made the groups in Indonesia, such as the Jamaah Ansharut Daulah group seem much larger than it was. But a smaller, more (JAD), are far more decentralised. IS has always been disciplined group, with better command, control, and happy to take credit for attacks perpetrated by fellow trav- professionalism, is far more dangerous. It’s reminiscent of ellers and people who subscribe to IS ideology. a famous video of three professional soccer players taking The January 2016 takeover of a Starbucks in central on 100 kids. Jakarta portended a lot of violence. Since then, we’ve seen Which is what makes the quiet return of JI so some very amateurish attacks, and some very professional concerning. 29

AIR – March 2021 JI’s last militant attack was in 2011, a suicide bomb- And the timing is essential for two reasons. First, JI ing of a mosque in a police compound. By that point, JI has clearly been positioning itself to pick up the pieces had been seriously weakened and was woefully divided of a much weakened IS/JAD and poach its adherents. It’s between a pro-al-Qaeda faction that wanted to con- important to note that in Southeast Asia, unlike the Middle

NAME OF SECTION ESSAY tinue to attack the “far enemy” – that is, Western-linked East and South Asia, jihadism is more fluid. People can targets – and a group that saw that strategy as not mor- defect from pro-al Qaeda groups to pro-IS groups and ally wrong, but counter-productive. They promoted a back again, without penalty, let alone fear for their lives. line based more on fomenting sectarian violence against And because of the patron-client system of relations in the the country’s minorities, something JI had been doing in region, a defecting senior militant can bring an entire net- 1998-2001. Neither side carried the day and JI continued work with him, as happened in 2014 when Bashir declared to splinter. bai’at to al-Baghdadi. With the emergence of IS “Jemaah Islamiyah never renounced Second, JI is set to emerge in 2014, many splinter groups from the COVID-19 pandemic began to declare their allegiance violence; the past decade was a much stronger than its rivals. All to al-Baghdadi. The Mujahideen tactical hiatus until its ranks and militant groups in Indonesia will Indonesia Timur (MIT), based in resources were replenished” use the pandemic to scapegoat central Sulawesi, was the first, Chinese and non-Muslims, and but many others followed. The seek to discredit the Government JAD was originally established as an umbrella group for all for its poor handling of the pandemic. All will provide of those pro-IS militants, before morphing into a terrorist some social welfare, but MIT is too small and localised, organisation in its own right by 2016. while the JAD’s experience in social welfare has been to The reality is that for the past decade, JI has ceased to support its in-group, in particular the families of incar- be a militant organisation. Consumed with the rise of IS, cerated militants. JI is the only group with a nationwide the Indonesian Government gave JI tremendous space to organisational structure and experience in running chari- operate its mosques and madrassas; to proselytise; and to ties and providing social welfare to out-groups. run businesses, publishing houses, and charities – as long as Is there a role for Abu Bakar Bashir in any of this? Per- they were not engaged in violence. But JI never renounced haps, but it shouldn’t be over-stated. violence; the past decade was a tactical hiatus until its There are far more critical issues to deal with. In In- ranks and resources were replenished. JI patiently let its donesia two things must happen: First, the security forces rivals in IS take the brunt of the security forces’ efforts. must start to take apart the social welfare networks of the In mid-2019, Indonesian authorities arrested JI’s spiri- militants. Second, the Government must crack down on tual chief, Para Wijayanto. It was a sobering wakeup call. the groups that act as entry-points for militants. While the The organisation was by then larger, wealthier, and better Government recently banned the Islamic Defender’s Front, resourced than it had been even at its height in the 2000s. it is just one of many “anti-vice” organisations that ideo- Although Indonesian authorities arrested more than logically predispose their members to commit violence 200 members of IS/JAD in 2020, some 30 members of against out-groups. To date, the Indonesian Government JI were also arrested, the first major crackdown on the has been too reluctant to take them on. group since 2010. Most importantly, the arrests include JI’s operations chief, Zulkarnaen, as well as the group’s top Dr. Zachary Abuza is a Professor at the National War College, in bomb-maker, and its latest spiritual leader. JI is back on the Washington, DC, where he focuses on Southeast Asian politics and security forces’ radar screen. security issues.

With compliments

Ariadne Australia Ltd.

AIR – March 2021 away as due to the Arabs “just emerging from colonial rule.” Moreover, loath to blame the subsequent violence on rejectionism

toward the two-state formula by the BIBLIO FILE NAME OF SECTION Arab side, Obama says “as Britain withdrew, the two sides quickly fell into war.” His Story, Not History Yet the reality is that – following the Arab League’s stated intentions to launch a “war of annihilation” against any Jewish state – a wave of terror A Promised Land against Jewish targets started the day Barack Obama, Penguin UK, 2020, 768 pp., RRP $65.00 after the Partition Plan passed. This became a wider conflagration as five neighbouring Arab countries by Allon Lee tried to snuff out the nascent Jewish state militarily when it was declared six months later. hen volume one of former US The Balfour Declaration was is- In contrast, the mainstream Jewish WPresident Barack Obama’s two- sued prior to Britain capturing the leadership advocated pragmatism, part presidential memoir dropped territory from the Ottoman Empire compromise and for all sides to in November, there was consider- and was issued only after gaining the peaceably implement the two-state able anticipation over what it might support of Britain’s French, American formula. reveal. and Italian allies, as historian Martin Yet Obama dismisses the modera- His presidency was punctuated by Kramer has demonstrated. tion of Israel’s leadership as growing frequent disagreements with current More problematic still is Obama’s out of the barrel of a gun, writing, Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu over anachronistic terminology about “with Jewish militias claiming vic- Iran, settlements and peace talks with “occupying Palestine”, suggesting a tory in 1948, the State of Israel was the Palestinians. recognised, well defined state. officially born.” The chapter dealing with the Arab- The reality is that no such state It feels somewhat ironic given the Israeli issue and the period of 2009- had ever previously existed and it was book’s title – A Promised Land – that 2011 is mostly short on fireworks. In- four years after Balfour before the Obama appears to lack understanding stead, what we get is a slow burn that geographic boundaries were finalised and sympathy towards Zionism – the repeatedly roasts Israel and especially into what is sometimes referred to as political term Jews use to express Netanyahu, while only occasionally “historic Palestine”. their right to self-determination in singeing Arab leaders. There is a hint of the lawless Wild the land where they became a people. Marred by numerous sins of com- West in Obama’s account of Jews try- He also arrogates to the US an mission and omission, the chapter’s ing to create a homeland in Palestine oversized responsibility for perpetuat- chief value lies in the direct access it over the following 20 years – describing the conflict because it “became Is- offers into Obama’s thinking. ing a “surge of Jewish migration into rael’s primary patron – and with that, Palestine” and “Zionist leaders… Israel’s problems with its neighbours AN UNPROMISING START organis[ing]… highly trained armed became America’s problems as well.” Reading the former President’s forces to defend their settlements.” Except that, until 1967, US sup- history of the Arab-Israel conflict, Obama doesn’t explain how the port for Israel was almost wholly po- one can infer that, in essence, Obama supposedly “highly trained armed litical and moral, with France meeting views Zionism as colonialism. forces” grew up in response to mur- Israel’s materiel needs. Obama incorrectly sequences derous mobs fired up by antisemitic Post-1948, Obama takes as a given the start of the conflict to the 1917 rhetoric perpetrating pogroms and the myth that Palestinians were denied Balfour Declaration, and incorrectly other violence. opportunities or options to improve states that “the British, who were then The chapter does acknowledge their situation – ignoring Jordanian occupying Palestine, committed to Arab opposition to the 1947 UN Par- and Egyptian occupation of the West create a ‘national home for the Jewish tition Plan which would have created Bank and Gaza until 1967, with no people.’” a Palestinian Arab state, but explains it moves to create a Palestinian state. 31

AIR – March 2021 Of the 1967 war he writes, “Pales- In Obama’s account, peace efforts main impediment to peace, Obama tinians living within the occupied ter- ended when Israeli PM Ariel Sharon determined to try a different method ritories, mostly in refugee camps, found and US President George W. Bush as- to advance peace talks. themselves governed by the Israel sumed office in 2001. He says his first chief-of-staff

BIBLIO FILE Defense Forces.” [emphasis added] Obama writes, “The Bush admin- Rahm Emanuel advised him early on This is mostly wrong. istration’s focus on Iraq, Afghanistan, that “you don’t get progress on peace In 1961, Life magazine’s Martha and the War on Terror left it little when the American president and the Gellhorn visited Palestinian refugee bandwidth to worry about Middle Israeli prime minister come from dif- camps in Lebanon, Gaza and the West East peace, and while Bush remained ferent political backgrounds.” (This is Bank, noting that “over half of the officially supportive of a two-state historically dubious. The breakthrough registered Palestinian refugees do not solution, he was reluctant to press Israeli-Egyptian peace deal in 1979 live in camps.” Sharon on the issue.” was signed with right-wing prime The significance of Arab leaders Conveniently forgotten is Israeli minister Menachem Begin in Jerusa- rejecting the land for peace formula PM Ariel Sharon’s pivotal withdrawal lem and centre-left President Jimmy in 1967 also does not appear to have of all settlers and settlements from Carter in Washington.) been understood by Obama. Gaza and three areas on the West Bank We know from contemporary me- This then is the intellectual suit- in 2005, at the end of the Second dia reports in 2009 that Emanuel also case that Obama brought into the Intifada. counselled Obama to follow a policy White House. In return, the Bush Administra- of “tough love” with Netanyahu. tion assured Sharon of US support for The pair settled on a policy of PALESTINIANS – 1, ISRAEL Israel to modify its borders to retain what became colloquially known as – 0 the large settlement blocs under any “putting daylight” between the US Entering the White House, Obama future peace deal. and Israel (although Obama does not sees peace as a strategic value and Bush’s 2007 Annapolis peace explicitly embrace that term). Israel and especially Netanyahu as the conference – including Israel, the In fact, this “daylight” policy barrier to achieving it. Palestinians, the Arab League, the EU ran against the grain of all past US He says former Palestinian Presi- and others – is also ignored, as are experience. dent Yasser Arafat’s “tactics” were “ab- then-US Secretary of State Condo- As reported in July 2009, senior horrent” and agrees that “Palestinian leezza Rice’s mediation efforts in mainstream US Jewish leaders told leaders had too often missed oppor- 2007/08. Those efforts culminated in Obama “that the past eight years had tunities for peace,” but makes it clear then-Israeli PM Ehud Olmert’s offer demonstrated that the best chance that he views this as less significant of a Palestinian state – the most gen- for peace came when there was no than the fact Palestinians live under erous offer Israel has made – which daylight between the US and Israeli Israeli occupation, which, he thinks, is Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas positions, Obama pushed back, noting why terror exists. rejected, as he himself said, “out of that the close ties between the Bush He writes of the barriers to peace hand”. Administration and the governments in 2009, that “most important, Israeli Simultaneous with these peace- of Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert had attitudes toward peace talks had making efforts, Hamas staged a in fact produced no significant prog- hardened, in part because peace no violent takeover of Gaza in June 2007 ress toward peace” (again forgetting longer seemed so crucial to ensuring that led to thousands of rockets being Olmert’s unprecedented 2008 offer the country’s safety and prosperity.” fired into Israel, culminating in the and the Gaza withdrawal). [emphasis added]. first Gaza war in December 2008. According to Michael Oren’s He says Netanyahu’s “reluctance to None of this was ancient history memoir of his stint as Israeli Ambas- enter into peace talks” is “born of Is- and none of it involved Netanyahu, sador to the US, also feeling that such rael’s growing strength” whilst portray- who had been out of power. “daylight” ran counter to an under- ing Palestinian President Mahmoud Ab- Neither Israel nor Netanyahu were standing of how the US-Israel rela- bas as a man of peace prevented from against “peace talks” based on “Israel’s tionship functions best,was Obama’s pursuing it by “political weakness.” growing strength”, but were sceptical own Vice President, Joe Biden. because of this history. Yet in Obama’s HISTORY? WHAT account, it never happened. ISRAEL AS CARROT AND HISTORY? STICK Obama justifies these assertions by DAYDREAMING ABOUT Obama says that he needed to effectively sweeping contrary history DAYLIGHT “coax” Netanyahu and Abbas to the 32 under the carpet. Convinced that Netanyahu was the negotiating table.

AIR – March 2021 Frustrated by the criticism, freeze in place – the same freeze Obama grumbles that “policy he’d spent the previous nine months differences” with Israel “exacted decrying as useless.” a domestic political cost that Yet Obama quickly dismisses Ab-

simply didn’t exist when I dealt bas’ dilatory tactics as minor, espe- BIBLIO FILE with the United Kingdom, Ger- cially compared to the crisis caused by many, France, Japan, Canada, or the “Israeli Interior Ministry announc- any of our other closest allies.” ing permits for the construction of Obama’s analogy is illogical sixteen hundred new housing units in and offensive. He never asked of East Jerusalem” just as Vice President Binyamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama in the Oval those countries anything similar Biden paid a “goodwill visit” in March Office, 2013 (Credit: IGPO) to what he asked of Israel, espe- 2010. Yet no Israeli leader would refuse cially after Israel had taken tangible Obama dismisses as “fiction” a US request to talk peace, and the risks by signing the Oslo Accords and Netanyahu’s claim the timing was a fact that Obama insisted on “tangible making territorial withdrawals and in “misunderstanding” – even though concessions” from Israel to give Abbas exchange had unlocked a Pandora’s Israeli officials involved in the deci- “political cover” to enter negotiations box of genocidal threats and record sion confirmed the PM had nothing to proves it was not Netanyahu prevent- Israeli civilian fatalities. do with that timing. ing talks. Moreover, it is hard to take seri- Moreover, the proposed hous- Obama says the plan devised to ously Obama’s claim of a “political ing was in Ramat Shlomo, a long- restart talks was to freeze all build- cost”, when, as he admits, Jewish established area immediately adjacent ing in West Bank settlements, and voter support at the ballot box re- to the pre-1967 armistice line which implies his approach was backed by “a mained “more than 70 percent.” leaked Palestinian documents show talented group of diplomats, start- Obama insinuates that hostility to Palestinian negotiators had long ing with Hillary [Clinton], who was him and his approach to the conflict conceded would remain Israeli in any well versed on the issues and already was due to the power of pro-Israel future peace. had relationships with many of the lobby groups, and perhaps racism. It is widely understood that the region’s major players… I appointed He also quotes a confidant tell- Obama Administration seized upon former Senate majority leader George ing him, “You’re a Black man with a the announcement – which did not vi- Mitchell as my special envoy for Muslim name who lived in the same olate any Israeli pledge to the US – as Middle East peace.” neighborhood as Louis Farrakhan and a pretext to create a crisis in relations But Obama actually appears to went to Jeremiah Wright’s church.” and pressure Netanyahu. have ignored his own handpicked But as Obama’s own officials saw, Biden admitted as much in a team’s advice. Clinton’s 2014 memoir his policy approach was misguided, speech whilst still in Israel, saying he states that she and Mitchell opposed and the fact that Americans who care strongly condemned the announce- the policy, fearing that “we could be about Israel correctly said so had ment “at the request of President locking ourselves into a confrontation nothing to do with the colour of his Obama.” we didn’t need, that the Israelis would skin. feel they were being asked to do more LESSONS NOT LEARNED than the other parties, and that once UNHOLY ROW The chapter concludes with we raised it publicly Abbas couldn’t Back to the settlements freeze, Obama chiding Netanyahu, Abbas and start serious negotiations without it.” which Netanyahu implemented for 10 other Arab leaders for lacking vision. Of course, Obama does not men- months. Yet instead of drawing appropriate tion this opposition, and even today Here, Obama shows some rare conclusions and realising that maybe apparently cannot see what Clinton clarity, admitting that “no sooner had the time was not right for major saw in 2009. Netanyahu announced the tempo- peace initiatives, Obama would return He bemoans that people were rary freeze than Abbas dismissed it as to this challenge in 2013-14, with complaining “we were picking on meaningless, complaining about the arguably grievous consequences. Israel and focusing on settlements exclusion of East Jerusalem.” But to hear about those, read- when everyone knew that Palestinian Abbas finally agreed to direct talks ers will have to await volume two of violence was the main impediment to “just one month before the settlement Obama’s memoirs, which will also peace.” freeze was set to expire” but “condi- include Obama’s take on his frictions Obama is here verballing main- tioned… participation… on Israel’s with Netanyahu over Iran’s nuclear stream American Jewish leaders. willingness to keep the settlement program. 33

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EYES WIDE SHUT gradually lifting all restrictions on cooperating on missile research. The Australian (Feb. 22) asked how enriching uranium, permitting Tehran Roger Boyes of The Times (UK), the Biden Administration can con- to enrich it to any level in any amount. republished in the Australian (Jan. 18), template “resurrecting” the 2015 Iran Once that happens, Iran can effectively pointed out that Iran seized a South nuclear deal (JCPOA) given Iran’s build nuclear weapons at any time Korean tanker in the Persian Gulf with recent behaviour. without warning,” they wrote. intelligence obtained from Pyongyang. The editorial noted that “powerful Iranian-linked militia groups” have “stepped-up rocket attacks… on MUDDLED EAST DIEHL’S WRONG NUMBER residual US forces in neighbouring REPORTING Writing in the Australian Financial Iraq. The attacks are part of Tehran’s On Jan. 27, SBS TV “World News’” Review (Jan. 21), veteran Washington relentless drive to achieve Shia re- wrongly framed opposition to the US Post columnist Jackson Diehl said the gional domination and force a total US returning to the Iran nuclear deal as “prime reason” the Trump Adminis- retreat from Iraq.” solely an Israeli concern. tration gave for “arming and defend- A Belgian court has just SBS reporter Abbie O’Brien said ing Sunni Arab regimes that, when “sentence[ed] a senior Iranian diplomat the Biden Administration has the “chal- it comes to domestic oppression and to 20 years’ imprisonment for a 2018 lenging task of restoring relations with foreign aggression, are hard to distin- terrorist plot intended to blow up a Iran, while keeping Israel on side.” guish from Shi’ite Iran – Saudi Arabia rally of thousands of exiled Iranians This was emphasised by academic and Egypt chief among them” was outside Paris. They were rallying in Clive Williams who was broadcast “defence” of Israel. opposition to the ayatollahs’ regime saying, “it will be very difficult for… But, Diehl said, “Israel… has and in favour of democracy.” Biden… to come up with something shown that it is more than capable of And Iran has further breached its which would please or satisfy both defending itself against Iran’s conven- commitments under the 2015 deal Israel and Iran.” tional threats.” by announcing it will limit scrutiny Williams added that “what wor- The Trump Administration sold of its nuclear activities and “is moving ries Israel is that Iran would no longer weapons to some Gulf States on the to make uranium metal, which has be the international pariah that it was basis they were needed against Iran and no civilian use but could be part of a under Trump… sanctions would be its proxies, which threaten numerous nuclear weapon.” lifted, including by Australia, and that states across the region – which is why “Rewarding the ayatollahs for their would all be very positive for Iran.” it is ridiculous to accuse these states of continuing villainy would be absurd,” Australia never joined the US in re- being as aggressive as Iran is. Moreover, the paper asserted. imposing sanctions on Iran in 2018, so the Administration had to bring Israel Williams is wrong on that. Meanwhile into the equation to explain why it the Sunni Arab states are as opposed to was selling equipment that potentially REALITY CHECK the JCPOA as Israel is. could erode a long standing US com- In the Daily Telegraph (Feb. 9), AI- Furthermore, on SBS TV “World mitment to maintain Israel’s “qualita- JAC’s Tzvi Fleischer and Oved Lobel News” (Feb. 17), academic Amin tive military edge” in the region. argued that if the Biden Administration Saikal welcomed US President Joe returns to the JCPOA it must fulfil its Biden’s Middle East policy shifts as a promise to fix the deal’s flaws. signal that the Trump Administration’s THE I RANT FILE Iran, they said, is “attempting to policy of “developing an Arab-Israeli The Age and Sydney Morning Herald panic” the Administration into resum- front against Iran” was over. (Feb. 24) seemed to suggest that the ing US participation, without pushing Biden Administration re-joining the to renegotiate the deal or doing so only 2015 Iran nuclear deal was somehow after sanctions have been lifted and the KOREAN TAKEAWAY the key to a needed US policy to leverage to force changes has gone. SBS TV “World News” (Feb. 9) “champion democracy, disarmament Without changes, “starting in 2025, earlier reported on a new UN report and human rights consistently across ‘sunset clauses’ in the JCPOA begin alleging that North Korea and Iran are the region.” 35

AIR – March 2021 The paper said continuing a ily criticised for its lowkey response to enrichment and increasingly engaged “partisan stance favouring selected Iran’s violent suppression of demon- in ‘hostage diplomacy’, including the Arab dictatorships as well as Israel’s strations against the regime hijacking imprisonment of Australian academic supremacy” would mean “Washing- the 2009 Presidential election result. Kylie Moore-Gilbert.”

NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND ton’s long history of difficulties in the Yet, in 2011, the Obama Adminis- Uranium enrichment is only the region is likely to continue.” tration pressured Egypt’s authoritarian tip of the Iranian nuclear weapons It is widely accepted that the ruler Hosni Mubarak to resign during iceberg. Obama Administration overlooked massive demonstrations against his The JCPOA is fatally flawed be- Iran’s aggressive regional activities rule. cause it permits Iran to research and and domestic human rights abuses to During the Syrian civil war, Obama test advanced centrifuges and ballistic maximise its chances of convincing Te- remained disengaged as Iran helped missiles whose only purpose can be heran to sign and adhere to a deal on the Assad regime slaughter hundreds the delivery of nuclear warheads. its nuclear weapons program. In other of thousands of Syrians and commit Enforcement of the deal was compro- words, the deal was inimical to cham- numerous war crimes. mised by a reluctance to force Iran pioning “democracy, disarmament and The editorial said returning to to disclose its program’s past military human rights consistently.” the JCPOA “will not be simple. Iran dimensions, which, as the nuclear ar- Thus, the Administration was heav- has returned to intensive uranium chive Israel stole in 2018 revealed, was

22 – “The final point I would make on this debate in this place is to reaffirm Australia’s commitment to the lessons of the Holo- caust and to the lessons against persecution. Over summer, we saw in the Grampians… what I would describe as a display of Foreign Minister Senator Marise Payne (Lib., NSW) – Me- confidence by Neo-Nazi figures in Victoria… I say to the House dia Statement – Feb. 6 – “Australia has deep concerns with the that there is nothing less Australian than pro-Neo-Nazi symbols ruling of the Pre-Trial Chamber of the International Criminal and gatherings. Australians fought and died fighting the Nazi Court that it has jurisdiction in relation to the ‘Situation in regime. We remain committed to learning the lessons of the Ho- Palestine’. Australia does not recognise a ‘State of Palestine’, locaust to make sure it never happens again.” noting that matters relating to territory and borders can only Tim Wilson (Lib., Goldstein), Milton Dick (ALP, Oxley), Dave be resolved through direct negotiations between Israel and the Sharma (Lib., Wentworth), Brian Mitchell (ALP, Lyons), Fiona Palestinians. …The International Criminal Court should not Martin (Lib., Reid) and Steve Georganas (ALP, Adelaide) spoke exercise jurisdiction in this matter.” in support of the motion, while Prime Minister Scott Mor- Senator Janet Rice (Greens, Vic.) – Feb. 16 – “The Australian rison (Lib., Cook), Shadow Foreign Minister Senator Penny government’s position is a disgrace and deeply disappointing Wong (ALP, SA) and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg (Lib., Kooyong) for Australians who support accountability for crimes, includ- recorded video messages for the Australia-wide commemoration ing alleged crimes, no matter who commits them or where … of International Holocaust Remembrance Day. We call on the Australian government to advocate human rights Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (Lib., NSW) – Feb. 22 – equally everywhere and to cease its opposition to this ruling by “Of course, there is the hypocrisy of Twitter. They’re prepared the ICC. Of course, at the same time, we reiterate our call that to let totalitarian rulers continue to promote their bile…to they should recognise the state of Palestine...” take action in relation to President Trump but still let the head Julian Leeser (Lib., Berowra) – Feb. 22 – “I move that this of Iran continue with his activities, particularly calling, as Iran House: “(1) notes that 27 January 2021 marked International does, for the wholesale eradication of Israel.” Holocaust Remembrance Day,… where we remember the Senator Mehreen Faruqi (Greens, NSW) – Feb. 17 – “The atrocities committed by the Nazi regime and its collaborators, unequal and inhumane treatment of Palestinians has continued and reaffirm our promise to ‘never forget’ the 6 million Jews through the COVID-19 pandemic. While the Israeli government and 11 million others including Roma, homosexuals, people rolled out the vaccine to a large proportion of its population… with intellectual disabilities, political prisoners, Poles, Serbs and very few Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have been vac- Soviet citizens who were exterminated during the Holocaust; cinated… The poverty and destitution that many Palestinians “(2) acknowledges the importance of International Holocaust live in under occupation only makes more urgent the need to Remembrance Day in honouring the memory of all Holocaust vaccinate them against COVID-19… Australia must push for an victims, and the ongoing efforts of the International Holocaust end to occupation, oppression and violence against Palestinians.” Remembrance Alliance to advance and promote Holocaust edu- Senator Anne Urquhart (ALP, Tas.) – Feb. 16 – “… the cynical cation to ensure the history and stories of its victims are passed use of the slur of anti-Semitism as a tool to silence critics of on to successive generations…” Israel for that state’s exhaustively documented human rights 36 Josh Burns (ALP, Macnamara) seconding the motion – Feb. abuses against Palestinians must stop.”

AIR – March 2021 far more extensive than it claimed. But the situation has changed since key achievements could so easily have Moreover, hostage taking has been 2015, he added, with “the exposure backfired badly, but he occasionally an unshakeable pillar of Iranian foreign of Iran’s nuclear archive in 2018 and got results that might have eluded a policy since the US Embassy seizure in its ever-growing litany of violations of more measured leader.”

1979. the JCPOA…. end[ing] the charade According to Leonard, Trump’s QUOTEDNOTED AND The editorial also falsely accused that its nuclear program was ever achievements included “the raid that Israel and the Saudis of being “deeply peaceful.” killed the ISIS supreme commander opposed to any understanding” be- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019. And tween the US and Iran. Mr Trump also ordered the killing of In fact, Israeli PM Binyamin Ne- ON THE BLINK Iran’s Maj-Gen. Qasem Soleimani, tanyahu has consistently argued that, Israel-based commentator Michael widely applauded as long overdue while the JCPOA is fatally flawed, it Friedson told ABC TV “The World” given his involvement in so many should be replaced by a better and (Feb. 8) that the Biden Administra- terror outrages. The UAE, Bahrain, more comprehensive agreement. tion may claim to be seeking to Sudan and Morocco have all opened “strengthen and lengthen the deter- diplomatic relations with Israel – a rence, strengthen and lengthen the ‘normalisation’ that had long seemed CRITICAL APPRAISAL obligations of the Iranians” but “Middle impossible.” In the Courier Mail (Feb. 22), Easterners feel he will probably blink AIJAC’s Dr. Colin Rubenstein ar- first.” gued for the Biden Administration “to According to Friedson, the Biden CRISIS MISMANAGEMENT impartially weigh the effectiveness of Administration does not “want to In the the Australian Financial Review Trump’s individual policies in isolation appear to be guilty of that which the (Jan. 22), UK Financial Times inter- from the tawdry controversies that critics of going in the treaty in the first national affairs editor David Gardner surround the former president.” place are suggesting and that’s that cited a confected and overblown Rubenstein pointed out that they’re weak.” “crisis” from 2010 to try to remind US many of Trump’s Middle East policies The problem is that “the Iranians President Joe Biden that settlements “should be counted among his suc- aren’t budging and… Middle Eastern- are supposedly the main impediment cesses, often achieved through non- ers feel he will probably blink first and to Israeli-Palestinian progress. conventional approaches that involved everybody is waiting to see if that will According to Gardner, “In March rethinking the US Foreign Policy be the case.” 2010, then US vice-president Joe establishment’s sacred cows.” Asked “how much damage was Biden, a stalwart supporter of Israel, He cited the peace agreements done by Donald Trump’s handling of arrived in Jerusalem with a brief from signed by Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco Iran?”, Friedson explained that there president Barack Obama to try to and Sudan with Israel in 2020, noting is a gap between the critics’ “rhetoric” revive moribund peace negotiations that as “late as 2016, then-Secretary of and “the practicality on the ground”. between the Palestinians and Israelis. State John Kerry said, ‘there will be no He said “most experts believe the Benjamin Netanyahu, then and now advanced and separate peace (between deterrence created by the economic Israel’s leader, had reluctantly agreed Israel and) the Arab world without sanctions is very powerful and is a tool to a temporary moratorium on Jewish the Palestinian process and Palestinian the new President must embrace. He settlement expansion in the occupied peace… That is the hard reality.’” really can’t go very far without that West Bank. Yet Biden had no sooner The new Administration knows deterrence. And that deterrence is pledged unyielding US support for that some of Trump’s policy changes ultimately traced to the position of Israel than the Netanyahu government were working, Dr. Rubenstein said, President Trump.” unveiled a big expansion of settler pointing out that it has “made clear housing on Palestinian land annexed that it will not reverse Trump’s recog- to occupied Arab East Jerusalem after nition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, a BE HISTORICAL, NOT the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Instead of move that was long overdue.” HYSTERICAL kickstarting stalled negotiations, Biden Unfortunately, it hasn’t accepted In the West Australian (Jan. 21), got a kick in the teeth he is unlikely to that Trump was right to withdraw Daily Mail writer Tom Leonard asked have forgotten.” from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran “might history remember [former US Gardner is wrong. By March 2010, and has appointed “several officials President Donald] Trump more kindly the settlements building freeze had closely associated with negotiating than his current critics?” already been in place for more than the original JCPOA to positions of Leonard said Trump “did some- three months and it never applied to influence.” times deliver. Granted, some of his east Jerusalem. 37

AIR – March 2021 Moreover, the “big expansion” was But not mentioned by Tlozek was COME AGAIN? in fact 1,600 housing units to be built that most of the seven “children” killed On ABC Radio National “Over- in the well-established neighbourhood were teenagers who were engaging nights” (Feb. 27) Australian com- of Ramat Shlomo, right along the old in terrorism. These include 17-year- mentator Keith Suter tried to answer

NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND pre-1967 armistice lines – an area that old Mahmoud ‘Omar Sadeq Kmeil, a question about why former US Palestinian negotiators had already who was shot “after he opened fire President Donald Trump, who is not conceded would become part of Israel at a police post near Bab Huttah” and known to be religious, was supported in any future peace deal. 16-year-old Muhammad Damer Ham- by evangelical voters, but confused And it has long been confirmed by dan Matar, shot whilst “trying to light listeners with muddled and misleading the officials involved that the timing of a gas balloon.” comments about the status quo on the the announcement was chosen by bu- Temple Mount in Jerusalem. reaucrats acting without government Suter said, “the religious right have knowledge. POISON PENMANSHIP been mobilised by Trump because And as Biden revealed in a speech In the Canberra Times (Jan. 23), TJ he is carrying out their agenda. He’s whilst in Israel, the only reason he Collins’ review of former Israeli Shin moved the embassy from Tel Aviv to condemned it was because President Bet chief Ami Ayalon’s book Friendly Jerusalem. Australia, I think, is still Barack Obama – who was looking for Fire was more focused on deploring keeping the embassy in Tel Aviv, as is an occasion to more strongly pressure Israel’s existence, rather than on the most other countries. But he’s moved Israel on settlements – told him to. book’s merits. it across. We’re getting ready to clean Ayalon’s thesis is that since the out the Islamic architecture from the 1993 Oslo Accords were signed, Temple Mount and rebuild the Third CHILD ABUSE? Israeli governments have not done Temple. So, this fits very much with ABC Middle East correspondent enough to foster a climate of trust the idea of clamping down on gay Eric Tlozek attracted criticism for with Palestinian leaders. rights and transgender issues and all an online report (Jan. 19) that was But Collins was not interested in the rest of it. Trump played to that provocatively titled “Israeli authori- how to achieve the goal of two states constituency even though he’s a per- ties killed seven Palestinian children living in peace. son of low morals himself.” last year. Their parents are calling for According to Collins, “If you were Suter is right that the Australian justice.” to…ask [Palestinians] how Israel Embassy in Israel has not moved from The report, which included sub- became its own worst enemy, they’d Tel Aviv, but the Morrison Govern- headings like “Why are children being probably tell you that establishing a ment did recognise west Jerusalem as shot?”, quoted from the families of Jewish state in Palestine was a pretty Israel’s capital in December 2018. children killed or injured. good start.” He accused Israel of However, something was clearly The Israeli NGO B’Tselem (which expelling “hundreds of thousands of lost in translation when Suter said, has been accused by former employ- people… from their ancestral lands” “We’re getting ready to clean out the ees of manipulating incidents and in 1948. Islamic architecture from the Temple testimony to attract EU funding) was Instead of implementing the UN Mount and rebuild the Third Temple.” quoted claiming “for years, Israel has Partition Plan that would have estab- Israel and the Israel Antiquities been implementing a reckless, unlaw- lished an Arab state alongside a Jewish Authority ensure the holy sites of all re- ful open-fire policy in the West Bank.” state, Arab leaders decided to go to war. ligions are respected and absolutely no An Israeli Defence Forces state- While that war led to the Palestinian plans exist to remove “the Islamic archi- ment explained deaths and injuries refugee problem, with some exceptions tecture on the Temple Mount” – which occur in the context of responding to in particularly vital military areas, these remains under the control of the same Palestinian violence. refugees were mostly not expelled. In Islamic Waqf (religious trust) which has But as critics noted, the report fact, the majority never even saw any controlled the area since 1948. left out vital context, which even Israeli soldiers before fleeing. Perhaps Suter meant to say that B’Tselem felt obliged to include in its After losing a war they started, the next goal of some fundamental- reports. Arab states refused to make peace, or ist evangelical Christians is to “clean The story focused on 15-year-old to establish a Palestinian state in the out the Islamic architecture from Ali Abu Alia who was killed whilst West Bank and Gaza, and kept the the Temple Mount and rebuild the allegedly only in the vicinity of a refugees permanently in camps to use Third Temple” which they believe is a demonstration and Malek Issa, who as a political weapon. necessary precondition for the Second was not killed but injured when Israeli Coming of Jesus? But he should defi- 38 troops were responding to rioting. nitely have been clearer.

AIR – March 2021 Allon Lee MEDIA MICROSCOPE COURTING CONTROVERSY cision, “The ICC now looks like the rest of the United The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) pre-trial Nations, another discredited organisation, politicised with finding that a “State of Palestine” exists which can legiti- little credibility.” Her guest, Liberal Senator James Pater- mately give the court jurisdiction to investigate alleged son, concurred. war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank was widely reported In the Australian (Feb. 8), University of Wollongong in the media as largely directed at Israel. Professor Greg Rose called the decision “predictable” and An Age/Sydney Morning Her- “primarily political”, adding ald report (Feb. 6) was head- “University of Wollongong Professor Greg that Bensouda had “collaborated lined “ICC clears the way for Rose called the decision ‘predictable’ and closely with the Palestinian Israeli war crimes probe”. The ‘primarily political’” Authority and NGOs.” online version stated that “The Prof. Rose noted that “The ICC could also potentially investigate crimes committed most important feature of the judgment is that it finds by Palestinian militants. [ICC prosecutor Fatou] Bensouda the ‘state of Palestine’ was established under UN General has said her probe would look into the actions of Hamas, Assembly resolution 67/19 in 2012…[and] elevate[s] UN which fired rockets indiscriminately into Israel during the General Assembly recommendations into international law 2014 war.” Yet this was cut from the papers’ print edition. for the ICC to enforce… This undemocratic global legal- Both versions of the article did note that “Israel’s mili- ism merely empowers lawyers… It is a legal regime for a tary has mechanisms to investigate alleged wrongdoing by fantasyland.” its troops, and despite criticism that the system is insuf- The Australian editorialised (Feb. 9) that President Ab- ficient, experts say it has a good chance of fending off ICC bas’ “real aim is… to achieve Palestinian statehood through investigation into its wartime practices.” the back door with recognition of it by key international The content and headline on the ABC’s website (Feb. 6) bodies… rather than through negotiating directly with were similar. Israel.” The editorial quoted AIJAC’s Dr. Colin Rubenstein On SBS TV “World News” (Feb. 6) newsreader Anton saying that “Palestine is not a state and international law Enus said the decision “pav[es] the way for an inquiry into should not be abused in order to manufacture one. A Pal- allegations of war crimes by both” and reporter Rena estinian state will only be created after negotiations with Sarumpaet said Bensouda “previously cited Gaza’s rulers Israel to resolve important issues such as borders, refugees Hamas and other armed groups there for firing rockets and the status of Jerusalem.” into civilian areas in Israel and using Palestinian civilians as In the Canberra Times (Feb. 23), AIJAC’s Allon Lee also human shields.” noted that the judges had relied “almost solely” on a UN An SBS online report (Feb. 7) quoted a Human Rights General Assembly resolution to recognise a Palestinian Watch spokesperson saying that it was “high time that state, noting that these kinds of “resolutions are not legally Israeli and Palestinian perpetrators of the gravest abuses” binding.” Moreover, “thanks to the automatic support of faced justice. the 57 members of the Organisation of Islamic Coopera- On the Spectator Australia’s website (Feb. 9), British tion and some additional allies, the PA routinely musters commentator Stephen Daisley was less credulous, saying, enough votes to pass politically charged, factually dubious “The pre-trial chamber opinion is keen to stress that it General Assembly resolutions such as that one.” would be looking for potential ‘war crimes’ committed by Lee added that the decision was reached by “trashing… Israel or the Palestinians. But anyone with a passing famil- legal principles… According to the [ICC’s] Statute… iarity… knows which of the two is likely to face greater only signatories to it can be investigated, unless the ICC scrutiny.” receives a [UN Security Council referral] …Israel has not A Courier Mail (Feb. 7) report explained that “Gaza is joined the ICC and no Security Council referral has been controlled by the Islamist group Hamas…[which] ousted issued… The ICC was established to investigate the most loyalists of Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas from the heinous war crimes in circumstances where a country territory in 2007” and quoted Israeli PM Binyamin Netan- cannot or will not do so... Israel’s… fiercely independent yahu’s accusation that the ICC has undermined the right of legal system routinely investigates and, if required, pros- democracies to defend themselves against terrorism. ecutes individuals accused of the sorts of crimes that fall On Feb. 7, Sky News’ Sharri Markson said of the de- under the ICC’s purview.” 39

AIR – March 2021 NAME OF SECTION Jeremy Jones

A TIMELY INQUIRY tive of an overseas political organisation was awoken by a When a bomb exploded in the carpark of the old Ha- gunshot fired into his home – which lodged not far from a koah Club in Sydney’s Bondi Beach in 1982, it reinforced sleeping child – I received verbal threats after I was identi- concerns within the Jewish community and beyond that fied as a serious enemy by the racist far-right. even Australia was in the sights of international terrorists. Another person named Jeremy Jones, who some ex- Earlier the same day, a bomb had caused damage to the treme right-wingers thought was me, was the subject of building which housed the Consulate of Israel only a few harassment and vandalism, while a different “J Jones” had kilometres away. These incidents sent shock waves through their home plastered with racist slogans. Other incidents the community. occurred which suggested that violent A decade before, officials of Jewish groups were taking Jewish com- organisations had been the addressees munity opposition to them quite for explosive devices sent through seriously. the mail and, not many years later, It has been a blessing that most of there would be furt her evidence of the Australian far-right-wing groups the targeting of Jewish Australians by have been led by individuals as foolish international terrorists. as their ideology, and as incompetent I have firsthand experience of a as one could hope for. number of these successful and foiled As we have seen in certain recent attempts. Only a late change of plans Swastikas daubed on a mural at Bondi Beach attempts by the racist extreme right removed me from the spot where one (Credit: Jeremy Jones) to organise rallies or to attract mem- bomb exploded and a change of meeting dates another. bership, their organisational capacity and appeal is essen- On more than one occasion, I have been given security tially non-existent. advice regarding my daily movements based on the tempo- However, just as their predecessors in recent decades rary presence in Australia of individuals whose reason to be have been involved in thuggery, violence and a range of in this country was to further terrorists’ goals. At least one criminal activities, these people cannot be ignored, either had a target list with my name and working address on it. as individuals or parts of organisations. Due to the international nature and agenda of the With modern technology, we have the phenomenon of individuals and organisations believed responsible for these handfuls of individuals based in one country aligning with, incidents, there was, for some, a misguided belief that the affiliating to, and even carrying out instructions from, cancer of terrorism was something which could be per- overseas overlords. ceived as foreign and alien to Australia. As we have seen in far too many places, it does not take However, in more recent times, we have seen evidence many individuals or particularly clever men and women of Australians who openly identify with the aims, tactics, to cause considerable loss of life and to also take away the strategies and actions of groups such as Islamic State. quality of life of vast numbers of people whom they would The current Parliamentary Inquiry into Extremist categorise as intended victims. Movements and Radicalism in Australia is not just an im- We must be aware not simply of the need to have suit- portant opportunity to examine contemporary threats and able legislative and security protections from overseas associated problems when it comes to groups with inter- extremist movements, but also for protection from people national agendas, but also to look at other and more local in Australia inspired by them, and likely to seek to imitate radical and violent extremists. their violent behaviour. Again, this is an issue of The inquiry is still at an early stage. We must all hope which I have not just professional that our legislators are able to develop not just protections but personal knowledge. for Australians, but a broader program to help build a safer, Not long after the representa- more secure and cohesive Australia in the future.

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