Friday, 28 August, 2015 5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Excessive Lightning Flooding Tornado Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind/Hail Heat Central FL Central FL(Mon- (Mon-Tue) East Coast (Sat,Sun- Statewide (Fri- Tue) South FL South FL(Fri- Statewide South FL Tue) Tue) South FL(Sun- (Sun-Tue) Sun) (Fri-Tue) (Sun-Tue) West Coast (Mon-Tue) Tue) Elsewhere

2PM EDT Friday Satellite Image of Erika (left) and Forecast Cone with Forecast Wind Swath as of 5PM Sunday (right)

Rainfall totals Friday through Tuesday Keetch-Byram Drought Index (isolated higher amounts possible) …Tropical Storm Erika Forecast to Impact South as Early as Sunday Afternoon… Heavy Rainfall and Flooding are the Main Concerns at This Time… Some Rivers May Reach Moderate or Major Stage if Worst-Case Rainfall Totals Come to Fruition… Sea Breeze Showers and Thunderstorms are Forecast for the State Each Day Until Erika’s Arrival… High Rip Current Risk will Arrive Before Erika and Linger After the Rain Ends…

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 8.28.15 Friday and Saturday: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected statewide today as the daily seabreeze interacts with a moist air mass over the state and energy associated with a stalled frontal boundary over North Florida. Some of the storms today may become strong to severe, with the main threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. An isolated waterspout may be possible along coastal Forecast High locations in South Florida. Temperatures on With cloudy skies, highs in the upper Saturday 80s to low 90s are expected statewide, with heat indices ranging from the mid-90s to low 100s. Storms should begin to wane after sunset, but isolated to scattered showers and storms could continue into the overnight hours along the coast and across portions of North Florida. Lows will be in the upper 70s along the coasts and the mid-70s inland. Saturday’s forecast is similar to Friday. The stalled frontal boundary is forecast to break down throughout the day. Moist air and southerly flow will combine to create higher rain chances for most of the Panhandle, with scattered showers and storms forming along seabreeze boundaries. The Southeast Florida coast will see lower rain chances as strengthening easterly winds in advance of Tropical Storm Erika keep seabreeze activity pinned near the Southwest Florida coast. High temperatures are again expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s statewide, and some areas of South Florida could see heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees. Sunday-Tuesday: With Tropical Storm Erika forecast to move through Florida, it is expected to dominate the weather across the state beginning Sunday. Under the current forecast, South Florida should begin to experience impacts from Erika Sunday afternoon. Forecast rain chances there range from 50% along the southwest coast to 70% along the southeast coast. Chances are also high for Probability of much of the rest of the Peninsula as abundant Precipitation (%) on moisture will lead to some scattered afternoon Sunday showers and storms. The lowest chances are in the Panhandle, where Erika will not yet have much influence and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms. The statewide forecast for Monday and Tuesday is very uncertain at this time, due to Erika’s uncertain track and intensity as it continues to move closer to Florida. If Erika moves more to the west, the entire Peninsula and

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 8.28.15 some areas in the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend could see plenty of rain. If Erika moves more to the east, the eastern half of the Peninsula would see the highest rainfall amounts. Erika could also dissipate and no longer be a threat to Florida. With so much uncertainty in the forecast beyond Sunday, we encourage Florida residents and visitors to monitor the weather this weekend and be alert for any new developments as Erika moves closer to Florida.

NWS Mobile Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Listed By County

Tropics:

As of 2 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Erika has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is currently located just south of the , or 850 miles southeast of Miami. Erika is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through the next 36 to 48 hours before gradually turning to north as it approaches Florida Sunday evening. Both the track and intensity forecasts have changed over the last day, and now the National Hurricane Center is predicting Erika to make in South Florida as a tropical storm Sunday night or early Monday morning. The entire Peninsula as well as the Big Bend and Eastern Panhandle are within the 5 day forecast cone, and South Florida is now within the 3 day forecast cone. Erika is forecast to weaken as it makes landfall over the

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 8.28.15 Dominican Republic today and encounters more dry air and increased . If Erika can retain her circulation after the next 36 hours, she is forecast to strengthen into a strong tropical storm once she moves into more favorable conditions in the Western Bahamas. If the current forecast holds, we expect tropical storm watches to be issued for portions of South Florida at some point this evening or tonight. For more information on the tropics visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For more information on the National Hurricane Center’s Seasonal Outlook click here and for more information on how to prepare your home, family, and business for this hurricane season please visit www.flgetaplan.com.

Rip Currents: Due to possible impacts from Tropical Storm Erika, there is an elevated risk for rip currents for all East Coast beaches through Tuesday. Wave heights and winds will be increasing as Erika approaches. A moderate risk for rip currents is forecast on Friday and Saturday, and a high risk is forecast Sunday through Tuesday. A moderate risk for rip currents is also expected for West Coast beaches from Pinellas to Collier County on Monday and Tuesday. A low risk for rip currents is expected elsewhere across the state through Tuesday. Anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast before going to their destination. Remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches.

Hydrology (River Flooding): As of 4 PM Friday, there are five river flood warnings in effect for rivers in and around West Central Florida. Four of these rivers are currently in minor flood stage, and one, the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park, is in moderate flood stage. The Myakka River is expected to fall into minor flood stage at some point over the next day or so. There are currently six river locations across the state that are currently in action stage, and two others are forecast to reach action stage over the next couple of days. No rivers currently in action stage are forecast to reach flood stage over the next couple of days. However, if the current forecast for Tropical Storm Erika comes to fruition, areas of the state could receive 3 to 5 inches in widespread rainfall, with isolated areas receiving up to 6 to 10 inches. These rainfall totals have not made it into the current hydrograph forecasts, and would almost certainly cause some river flooding. Some rivers around the state and especially in and around West Central Florida could reach moderate or even major flood stage if this worst case scenario occurs. Everyone is encouraged to monitor the river forecasts as they are updated throughout the weekend at the Southeast River Forecast Center’s website, here.

Fire Weather: Soils in the western Panhandle continue to be very dry due to well below average rainfall over the last three months. Soil conditions in the rest of Florida are less favorable for potential wildfire formation and development. With generally light winds forecast for the western Panhandle and rain chances in the Peninsula remaining high due to possible impacts from Tropical Storm Erika, the fire weather threat is expected to remain low statewide through Tuesday. Lightning from thunderstorms will be the primary trigger of fires over the next five days.

It is advised that anyone handling flammable materials use caution while outdoors on wildfire danger days. Dry vegetation or winds can fuel a wildfire and cause it to spread rapidly, turning a tiny spark into a devastating wildfire. Local fire weather forecasts can be found here.

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 8.28.15

Drought Conditions: Southeast Florida continues to experience extreme drought conditions as rainfall deficits remain high. Abnormally dry conditions persist in many areas of the western Panhandle as well. Even with Tropical Storm Erika possibly bringing some much needed rainfall to Southeast Florida, drought conditions there are expected to persist. The U.S. Drought Monitor’s seasonal outlook shows that all of the areas in Florida currently affected by drought are likely to persist or intensify, and drought could develop in other areas in the state. Also, nearly the entire state of Florida is forecast to see below normal chances for precipitation over the next month.

Florida NCAA Division 1-A College Football: Saturday, September 5, 2015 (Forecasts will be issued on Tuesday for Thursday night games, and will be issued on Friday for Saturday games.)

FIU @ UCF: (Thursday, September 3, Kick-off: 6pm)

FAU @ Tulsa: (Kick-off: 3:30pm)

UM v BC: (Kick-off: 6pm)

FAMU @ USF: (Kick-off: 7pm)

UF v New Mexico State: (Kick-off: 7:30pm)

FSU v Texas State: (Kick-off: 8pm)

For the official forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West

Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and , please click here.

Have a great weekend!!

Molly Merrifield, Assistant State Meteorologist William Watson, Meteorology Intern State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org www.KidsGetAPlan.com

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 8.28.15