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Copyrighted Material JANUARY JANUaRY ALManaC S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 ◆ STOCKs AND BOnds 27 28 29 30 31 S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see mild declines after the New Year (page 138), as investors sell positions to defer capital gain taxes on profits, but the FEBRUARY overall strength from October can last into April. Traders can look to take advan- S M T W T F S 1 2 tage of the January break (page 22). This trade has a reliable trend registering a 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 73.3% success rate. 30-year Treasury bond prices have a tendency to continue 24 25 26 27 28 their decline (page 106), as investors are reallocating money into stocks. ◆ EneRGY JANUARY January tends to see continued weakness in crude oil (page 143) and in natural gas (page 145) before the typical bottom is posted in February. Traders should prepare STRATEGY for the strongest buy month for oil and natural gas (pages 26, 32, and 124). * Heating Oil tends to decline in January into early February 69.7% of the time CALENDAR Symbol B M E since 1980 with the exception of 2011 and 2012 (see pages 14, 124 and 147). L SP S ◆ MeTaLs L US S Gold has a strong history of making a seasonal peak from mid- to late L CL January into early February. Shorting gold during this time period has result- S L ed in a cumulative profit of $45,480 over the past 38 years (page 124). Silver NG also has a tendency to peak in late February and follows gold price weakness S L HO into March (page 30). Copper tends to respect its seasonal December bottom S L to show mild strength in January (page 112). HG S L ◆ GRaIns GC S Soybeans tend to post a low in late January or early February (page 161). L SI Wheat prices tend to see seasonal weakness in January as well (page 18). In S L fact, this trade boasts a 69.8% success rate, with 30 years up and 13 down. C S Corn prices tend to buck that trend, as we enter into the new marketing year L S (page 158). S L W ◆ SOFTs S L CC Cocoa shows signs of strength in January and continues higher until March S L (page 34). Coffee tends to show a mixed performance in the month of January, KC giving back some of December’s gains (page 170). Sugar tends to show a S L SB mixed performance in January, as beet and continued sugar cane harvest in the S southeast United States and India puts pressure on prices (page 173). L LC S ◆ MeaTs L COPYRIGHTED MATERIALLH S Live cattle prices tend to follow December’s strength (page 176), and hog L BP prices tend to remain under pressure from making any significant moves up S L until March (page 179). EC S L ◆ SF CURRenCIes S L The euro has a short life span since beginning in 1999. However, since incep- JY tion, it has a stellar trade by going short on the third trading day and holding S * Graphic representation of for 24 days. It has been up 11 and registered three losses (page 16). The Swiss the Commodity Seasonality Percentage Plays on pages franc and the British pound both show a strong seasonal tendency to continue 124–125. L = Long Trade, S = Short lower from late December. The yen also demonstrates weakness from Trade. See pages 131–137 December into February. for contract symbols. 12 c01.indd 12 26/07/12 10:04 PM DECEMBER 2012/JANUARY 2013 MONDAY 31 FN: HG, GC, SI, S LT: HO Of a stock’s move, 31% can be attributed to the general stock market, 12% to the industry influence, 37% to the influence of other groupings, and the remaining 20% is peculiar to the one stock. — Benjamin F. King (Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behavior, Journal of Business, January 1966) New Years Day (Market Closed) TUESDAY 1 There’s nothing wrong with cash. It gives you time to think. — Robert Prechter, Jr. (Elliott Wave Theorist) End Long Euro(H) (Oct. 24, 2012) WEDNESDAY End Long Swiss Franc(H) (Nov. 27, 2012) 2 The principles of successful stock speculation are based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past. — Thomas F. Woodlock (Wall Street Journal editor & columnist, quoted in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, 1866–1945) Start Short Heating Oil(J)—69.7% Accuracy Since 1980—End Feb. 15—Page 14 THURSDAY 3 FN: HO Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go. — T.S. Eliot (English poet, essayist and critic, The Wasteland, 1888–1965) Start Short Euro(H)—78.6% Accuracy Since 1999—End Feb. 8—Page 16 FRIDAY Start Short Wheat(N)—69.8% Accuracy Since 1970—End May 8—Page 18 4 OE: CC, LC, BP, EC, SF, JY When I talk to a company that tells me the last analyst showed up three years ago, I can hardly contain my enthusiasm. — Peter Lynch (Fidelity Investments, One Up On Wall Street, b. 1944) SATURDAY 5 SUNDAY 6 c01.indd 13 26/07/12 10:04 PM SHORT HEATING OIL IN EARLY JANUARY Heating oil prices typically track closely with crude oil prices. After the summer driving season is over, refiners focus more on building up inventory levels of heating oil. This drives both heating oil and crude oil to a seasonal peak in September followed by a low in December. After a brief relief at yearend both oils exhibit weakness in January and February. This sets up a high probability trade. Selling short April heating Oil on the second trading day of January and holding for 30 days boasts a 69.7% accuracy rate and cumulative gains of $34,184 dating back to 1980. However, there are times when the byproduct’s pricing decouples from crude oil price trends; when inventories for crude oil are inverted due to the demand for the products. This occurs at certain times of the year, typically in peak heating season, which is defined by the EIA JANUARY SHORT HEATING OIL (APRIL) (U.S. Energy Information Administration) as TRADING DAY: 2–HOLD: 30 DAYS October through March. Entry EXIt ProfIt/ Year Date Close Date Close Loss In fact, this trade did not work in the last two 1980 1/3 86.60 2/14 75.50 $4,662 1981 1/6 105.80 2/18 97.85 3,339 years. During both January 2011 and 2012, pric- 1982 1/5 91.58 2/17 80.96 4,460 1983 1/4 78.69 2/15 73.13 2,335 es of crude oil declined due to a build in inven- 1984 1/4 75.65 2/15 75.64 4 tories and China’s economy was suspected of 1985 1/3 68.09 2/14 70.66 −1,079 1986 1/3 67.31 2/14 49.00 7,690 contracting giving the perception of a decline in 1987 1/5 47.83 2/17 47.64 80 demand. At the same time snow storms and frig- 1988 1/5 48.38 2/17 44.82 1,495 1989 1/4 46.67 2/15 47.23 −235 id temperatures moved into the North East sec- 1990 1/3 62.50 2/14 57.26 2,201 1991 1/3 65.13 2/14 58.30 2,869 tion of the U.S. causing a spike in demand for 1992 1/3 52.75 2/14 54.15 −588 heating oil. 1993 1/5 55.13 2/17 54.46 281 1994 1/4 45.30 2/15 44.16 479 1995 1/4 49.33 2/15 47.02 970 At points A and B in the chart below heating 1996 1/3 52.76 2/15 51.91 357 oil prices spike while crude oil prices moved 1997 1/3 65.63 2/14 58.83 2,856 1998 1/5 48.38 2/18 46.10 958 lower as marked at points B and D. This situation 1999 1/5 34.90 2/18 31.56 1,403 seems to be more of an isolated incidence as our 2000 1/5 62.17 2/17 72.17 −4,200 2001 1/3 77.21 2/15 74.10 1,306 research shows. The lower quadrant of the chart 2002 1/3 55.89 2/15 56.10 −88 2003 1/3 82.59 2/18 97.32 −6,187 shows the seasonal trend of heating oil, which 2004 1/6 90.29 2/19 90.13 67 shows the typical trend is to decline from January 2005 1/4 118.91 2/16 132.35 −5,645 2006 1/4 183.19 2/16 165.35 7,493 into mid-February as illustrated at points E and F. 2007 1/4 160.86 2/16 166.65 −2,432 2008 1/3 266.66 2/15 262.49 1,751 The point here is to remember that all years are 2009 1/5 156.25 2/18 114.14 17,686 not created equal and one still needs to use con- 2010 1/5 219.96 2/18 206.22 5,771 2011 1/4 251.53 2/16 278.09 −11,155 firming indicators and risk management when 2012 1/4 306.48 2/17 317.72 −4,721 using seasonal analysis.
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