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Chief Economists Outlook June 2021 Centre for the New Economy and Society Chief Economists Outlook June 2021 Chief Economists Outlook Chief Economists Outlook June 2021 This quarterly briefing builds on the latest policy research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the global economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. 2 Chief Economists Outlook Contents 1. Shaping the recovery momentum ________________________________ 4 2. Avoiding economic scarring ______________________________________ 8 3. Reversing domestic polarization and international divergence ___ 12 4. Accelerating the climate transition ______________________________ 15 References ________________________________________________________ 17 Acknowledgments _________________________________________________ 19 Cover: GETTY/Izusek 3 Chief Economists Outlook 1. Shaping the recovery momentum The June edition of the Chief Economists of ill health, grief and stress; millions of Outlook comes out amid improving workers have dropped out of the global aggregate recovery momentum, yet in a labour force; and job openings are going profoundly uncertain environment with unfilled across advanced economies. widely diverging trajectories. Across countries, differentiated paths are The second US stimulus package along opening up, determined to a large with an acceleration in the roll-out of extent by access to vaccines and vaccines in high-income economies gave a the financial resources available to boost to global growth forecasts this spring. governments. Soaring stock markets The consensus among the World Economic and rising commodity prices give the Forum’s Chief Economists Community is impression that the fortunes of the global tending towards an expected average global economy are looking up. And yet, behind growth rate in the range of 5.5% to 6% in these numbers, some countries are 2021 (or possibly higher) and a recovery of experiencing dramatic new waves of the global GDP to pre-COVID levels within the virus; people are still processing 18 months first half of 2022. What is your global growth forecast When do you expect global GDP to return for 2021? to its pre-COVID level? 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 0 0 Less than 4.5-5% 5-5.5% 5.5-6% 6-6.5% More than H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 2024 or 4.5% 6.5% 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 later Source: Chief Economists Survey Source: Chief Economists Survey 4 Chief Economists Outlook In what follows, this edition of the Chief as proportionate to existing output gaps Economists Outlook explores the most by survey respondents, that of the US important forces supporting the recovery as is seen as disproportionately large. Total well as important developments and risks COVID spending by the US government that could yet delay or derail it. Drawing including emergency measures and fiscal on the collective views and individual stimulus adds up to almost 25% of GDP, perspectives of a group of leading Chief compared to 4.7% for China, most of which Economists, through the Forum’s Chief was already implemented over the course Economists Survey and consultations of 2020. Given the comparatively lesser with the Community, the Outlook aims to economic impact of the crisis, Chinese fiscal add some colour and nuance to current authorities were able to guard some room forecasts. The analysis focuses on economic for manoeuvre on macro policy.1 Measures variables and outcomes while recognizing taken by the EU add up to approximately that the single most important factor to 10% of EU27 GDP,2 comprising the €750 shape the road to recovery is still the future billion ($906 billion) Next Generation EU trajectory of the virus. The latter will depend (NGEU) recovery fund, finalized at the heavily on progress with vaccine roll-outs and end of 2020, on top of €540 billion ($652 the impact of future mutations. billion) emergency relief allocated by the European Commission. In high-income countries, the recovery to date has been carried by generous In the US, the CARES Act passed in March government support. While emergency 2020 allocated $2.3 trillion (11% of US GDP) measures have generally been judged of emergency measures. This was expanded as commensurate and timely, questions at the end of the year, with a $868 billion have arisen over the proportionality and (4.1% of GDP) COVID relief and government transformative power of stimulus packages. funding bill that topped up unemployment Measures vary widely across economies in benefits and provided direct stimulus their scale relative to output gaps and also payments as well as additional resources in their level of ambition for economic and for pandemic control. In March 2021, the social transformation. American Rescue Plan came into force; this adds $1,844 billion of fiscal stimulus Three of the largest fiscal packages (approximately 8.8% of GDP) and was most have been passed by the US, the EU recently topped up by an infrastructure plan and China. While stimulus measures put ($2.3 trillion) and a families plan ($2 trillion forward by the EU and China are judged over 10 years) of similar sizes. 1 HKEX, 2021. 2 IMF, 2021. 5 Chief Economists Outlook Proportionality and transformational power of recovery packages Average score – for size: 1 = insufficient, 5 = disproportionate; for transformative power: 1 = not at all confident about transformative power; 5 = very confident about transformative power 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 EU China US Size Transformation Source: Chief Economists Survey The transformative reach of the packages is public health impact such as Italy and Spain, judged as moderate in all three cases, with plus Eastern European countries. The NGEU the EU’s recovery plan coming out slightly combined with the 2021-27 EU budget have ahead of the other two. the highest climate component out of the major recovery packages, with 30% targeted In China, the core measures have towards climate change mitigation. focused on increased spending on epidemic prevention and control, The US approach in the current phase production of medical equipment, consists of three pillars: the $1.9 trillion accelerated disbursement of stimulus (the American Rescue Plan); an unemployment insurance and extension infrastructure plan; and a families plan to to migrant workers, tax relief and waived support educators, students and families. social security contributions, and additional The American Rescue Plan stipulates public investment.3 While the immediate additional funding for public health, including spending was focused mainly on public more money for vaccinations, temporary health measures, there are plans to assistance to households and direct stimulus significantly step up investment into digital payments, as well as support for businesses, infrastructure to support the recovery. schools, and state and local governments. All objectives contained in the plans are in line In the EU, the main beneficiaries are with building a fairer and greener economy; expected to be high-debt countries that however, the implementation of the suffered disproportionately in terms of the planned measures, be they infrastructure or 3 Ibid. 6 Chief Economists Outlook education, is complex and requires attention have argued for the international to detail to become truly transformative.4 community to step up grants rather than extending more loans, supporting both According to survey respondents, some the rollout of vaccines and, in the longer dimensions are currently missing from run, the green transition.5 Given that global recovery packages; several respondents trade has been a significant contributor point to the fact that too much emphasis to poverty reduction in low- and middle- has been given to short-term support over income countries in recent decades, it will long-term structural transformation. It was also be important to ensure that domestic suggested that the US has allocated too polarization in high-income economies is much in income transfers to households addressed via transfers rather than a move that did not suffer financially during the towards greater protectionism.6 crisis and not enough in incentives for green infrastructure. More investment in the There is also the larger question of where workforce would also be desirable, as would this leaves societies in terms of the deep investment for innovation/transformation structural transformation that many believe and alternative types of infrastructure, is necessary if market capitalism is to get including digital. It was noted that, in a new lease of life post-COVID. A growing the US, decisions over the direction of number of prominent voices are looking modernization are made difficult by extreme beyond the immediate challenge of fiscal political polarization. In terms of structure stimulus and instead have called for a and phasing, not enough provisions are much deeper transformation of the existing being made for phase-out while, in the EU’s economic system. They are pointing to case, more coordination among member the mismatch between value assigned by states would be desirable and necessary to market interactions and value as experienced reach scale at the regional level. by individuals and society,7 and are calling for a radical rethink of the social contract.8 Low- and middle-income countries
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