CAPR Industry Seminar Real Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

CAPR Industry Seminar Real effects of exchange rate fluctuations Liquidity illusion; FX no exception by Magne Østnor DNB Markets Bio: Magne Østnor is working as a FX Strategist at DNB Markets. Prior to working in DNB, Magne held various positions in Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), mainly related to foreign exchange and fixed income markets. He received his Master in Economics from the University of Oslo in 2005 and a Master of Science in Economics and Business Administration in 2003 from the BI Norwegian Business School. Oil prices, exchange rates, and asset prices by Marcel Fratzscher DIW Berlin Bio: Marcel Fratzscher is the President of DIW Berlin, one of the leading economic research institutes and think tanks in Europe, and Professor of Macroeconomics and Finance at Humboldt-University Berlin. His prior professional experience includes work as Head of the International Policy Analysis at the European Central Bank (ECB) from 2001 to 2012; the Peterson Institute for International Economics in 2000-01; before and during the Asian financial crisis in 1996-98 at the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia for the Harvard Institute for International Centre for Asset Pricing Research BI Norwegian Business School Paul Ehling Associate Professor of Finance Founding Director [email protected] +47 464 10 505 Development (HIID); and shorter periods at the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and in various parts of Asia and Africa. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute (EUI); a Master of Public Policy from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government; a B.A. in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) from the University of Oxford, and a Vordiplom in Economics from Kiel University. Safe and not-so-safe currencies by Dagfinn Rime BI Norwegian Business School Bio: Professor Dagfinn Rime received his Ph.D. from the BI Norwegian Business School in 2001. Before coming to BI, he held various positions in the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), including senior researcher, manager in the research unit, and consultant for the markets operations department. His research has been published in leading international journals such as Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, and Journal of International Economics. Date: Tuesday, 1 September, 2015 Time: 16:30 – 18:30 Place: BI Norwegian Business School, Nydalen, Oslo. Room: B2-060 Please register for the event at: [email protected] .

Copy Link

Recommended publications

The Coronavirus and Financial Stability | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
4/27/2020 The coronavirus and financial stability | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal VOX CEPR Policy Portal Create account | Login | Subscribe Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists Search Columns Covid-19 Vox Multimedia Publications Blogs&Reviews People Debates Events About By Topic By Date By Reads By Tag The coronavirus and financial stability Arnoud Boot, Elena Carletti, Rainer Haselmann, Hans‐Helmut Kotz, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Loriana Pelizzon, Stephen Schaefer, Marti Subrahmanyam 24 March 2020 Arnoud Boot Professor of Corporate Finance and Financial Markets, University of Amsterdam; CEPR Research Fellow Elena Carletti Professor of Economics, European University Institute The virus epidemic carries the risk of a financial pandemic which may even spiral into a global phenomenon, strenghtening the case for some form of a joint and mutual insurance scheme 21 A A First posted on: SAFE Policy Letter 78 Related Covid Perpetual Eurobonds The issue: Coronavirus and the real Francesco Giavazzi, Guido Tabellini Rainer Haselmann economy A proposal for a Covid Credit Line Chaired Professor of Finance, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Arnoud Boot, Antonio Fatás, Accounting and Taxation, Goethe Marcel Fratzscher, Clemens Fuest, Francesco University Frankfurt Since the turn of the year, Covid-19 – a novel virus – Giavazzi, Ramon Marimon, Philippe Martin, Jean has been spreading globally. With a large number of Pisani-Ferry, Lucrezia Reichlin, Dirk Schoenmaker, infected people, particularly in China, Korea, Italy, and Pedro Teles, Beatrice Weder di Mauro Iran, the perception of an uncontrolled pandemic has COVID-19: Europe needs a catastrophe relief already caused many to change their daily lives. The plan resulting reduction in economic activity worldwide is Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Ramon Marimon, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lucrezia Reichlin, Dirk Schoenmaker, threatening to tip several countries into recession and Beatrice Weder di Mauro to damage financial stability.
[Show full text]
Happy Birthday?
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS Requested by the ECON committee Happy birthday? The euro at 20 Monetary Dialogue January 2019 Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies Directorate-General for Internal Policies Authors: K. BERNOTH, F. BREMUS, G. DANY-KNEDLIK, H. ENDERLEIN, M. FRATZSCHER, L. GUTTENBERG, A. KRIWOLUZKY, R. LASTRA EN PE 631.041 - January 2019 Happy birthday? The euro at 20 Monetary Dialogue January 2019 Abstract We analyse the first twenty years of the euro both from an economic and an institutional perspective. We find that in particular during the period since the financial crisis, convergence as measured by a variety of indicators has not improved. Design flaws in the Eurozone institutional architecture have contributed importantly to this lack of convergence. This is why further reforms are urgently needed. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. AUTHORS Kerstin BERNOTH, Hertie School of Governance, DIW Berlin Franziska BREMUS, DIW Berlin Geraldine, DANY-KNEDLIK, DIW Berlin Henrik ENDERLEIN, Hertie School of Governance, Jacques Delors Institute Berlin Marcel FRATZSCHER, DIW Berlin Lucas GUTTENBERG, Jacque Delors Institute Berlin Alexander KRIWOLUZKY, DIW Berlin Rosa LASTRA; Queen Mary University London ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE Dario PATERNOSTER EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Janetta CUJKOVA LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE EDITOR
[Show full text]
The Redesign of EMU in a Global Perspective Bios for Speakers
Forward to a New Normal: The redesign of EMU in a global perspective Brussels, November 26, 2013 Berlaymont, Salle Schuman Bios for Speakers 09:00-10:30 Competitiveness, structural reforms and growth in an international perspective. Chair: Servaas Deroose (Deputy Director General, DG ECFIN) Speakers: John Lipsky (Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Johns Hopkins SAIS) PierCarlo Padoan (Deputy Secretary General, OECD) Discussants: Marcel Fratzscher (President, DIW Berlin) André Sapir (Professor, Université libre de Bruxelles) Servaas Deroose has been Deputy Director-General at the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs since 2010. In this capacity, he co-ordinates the DG's work on EU governance, integrated macroeconomic surveillance, EU2020, competitiveness and fiscal policy. After graduating in economics from the University of Ghent, Servaas Deroose worked as a researcher at the Economics Faculty of the University of Ghent. He joined the European Commission in 1985 and has worked mainly in the fields of macroeconomic surveillance (economic forecasts, economic policy co-ordination, and budgetary policy) and EMU-related issues (economic convergence, euro adoption, imbalances). John Lipsky served as First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund from 2006 to 2011. He retired from the IMF in November 2011 and is currently a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Before coming to the Fund, Mr. Lipsky was Vice Chairman of the JPMorgan Investment Bank. Previously, Mr. Lipsky served as JPMorgan's Chief Economist, and as Chase Manhattan Bank's Chief Economist and Director of Research. He served as Chief Economist of Salomon Brothers, Inc. from 1992 until 1997.
[Show full text]
On Currency Crises and Contagion
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Fratzscher, Marcel Working Paper On currency crises and contagion ECB Working Paper, No. 139 Provided in Cooperation with: European Central Bank (ECB) Suggested Citation: Fratzscher, Marcel (2002) : On currency crises and contagion, ECB Working Paper, No. 139, European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M. This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152573 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the
[Show full text]
The External Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence from Firm Level Data
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE EXTERNAL IMPACT OF CHINA'S EXCHANGE RATE POLICY: EVIDENCE FROM FIRM LEVEL DATA Barry Eichengreen Hui Tong Working Paper 17593 http://www.nber.org/papers/w17593 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2011 We thank Rudolfs Bems, Olivier Blanchard, Nigel Chalk, Roberto Chang, Stijn Claessens, Charles Engel, Robert Feenstra, Kristin Forbes, Jeffery Frankel, Marcel Fratzscher, Takatoshi Ito, Andrei Levchenko, Raul Razo-Garcia, Shang-Jin Wei, and seminar participants at the IMF, the ECB, the 2011 Econometrics Society Winter Meeting, and the NBER IFM 2011 Spring Meeting for helpful comments and Mohsan Bilal for excellent research assistance. The views in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the IMF or the National Bureau of Economic Research. This Paper was also published as IMF Working Paper 11/155, and has been reproduced with permission. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2011 by Barry Eichengreen and Hui Tong. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The External Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence from Firm Level Data Barry Eichengreen and Hui Tong NBER Working Paper No. 17593 November 2011 JEL No. F0,F3,F30,F31 ABSTRACT We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries.
[Show full text]
IMFS Activities from 2009-2013
IMFS Activities from 2009-2013 IMFS IMFS 1 Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability Goethe University House of Finance Grüneburgplatz 1 D-60323 Frankfurt am Main www.imfs-frankfurt.de [email protected] IMFS 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS A. IMFS Objectives and Key Developments 4 I. The Institute: Its Objectives and Professors 4 II. Overview of Institute Activities and Achievements 6 III. Key Results in Research 7 IV. Notable Achievements in Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Training 9 V. Key Developments in Research-Based Policy Advice 11 VI. Notable Achievements in Public Outreach and Dissemination 12 VII. Fellows 14 B. IMFS Publications 15 I. IMFS Working Papers 15 II. IMFS Interdisciplinary Studies in Monetary and Financial Stability 17 C. IMFS Events 2009-2013 18 I. Conferences 19 II. Distinguished Lectures 28 III. IMFS Working Lunches 32 IV. Public Lectures 34 V. Summer Research Seminars on Monetary and Financial Stability 35 VI. Smaller Workshops 35 D. Endowed Chairs 36 I. Endowed Chair of Monetary Economics 37 I.1. Prof. Volker Wieland, Ph.D. (since 2012) 37 I.2. Prof. Dr. Stefan Gerlach (until 2011) 47 II. Endowed Chair of Financial Economics 51 II.1. Prof. Dr. Roman Inderst (until 2012) 51 III. Endowed Chair of Money, Currency, and Central Bank Law 54 III.1. Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Helmut Siekmann (since 2007) 54 E. Founding and Affiliated Professors 65 I. Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Theodor Baums 65 II. Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Reinhard H. Schmidt 74 III. Prof. Michael Binder, Ph.D. (since 2013) 76 3 IMFS Objectives and Key Developments A.
[Show full text]
Towards a New Early Warning System of Financial Crises
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES ECB EZB EKT BCE EKP WORKING PAPER NO. 145 TOWARDS A NEW EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL CRISES BY MATTHIEU BUSSIERE AND MARCEL FRATZSCHER MAY 2002 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES WORKING PAPER NO. 145 TOWARDS A NEW EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL CRISES* BY MATTHIEU BUSSIERE** AND MARCEL FRATZSCHER*** MAY 2002 * The paper was written while Matthieu Bussiere was visiting the External Developments Division of the European Central Bank. We have benefited from many discussions and would like to thank in particular Mike Artis, Anindya Banerjee, Gonzalo Camba Méndez, Søren Johansen, Helmut Lütkepohl, Rasmus Rüffer, Bernd Schnatz and the participants of two ECB seminars for their comments and suggestions.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. ** [email protected] ; European University Institute, Badia Fiesolana, I-50016 San Domenico (FI), Italy. *** [email protected] ; European Central Bank, External Developments Division, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany. © European Central Bank, 2002 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged The views expressed in this paper are those of
[Show full text]
Prof. Marcel Fratzscher, Ph.D
Prof. Marcel Fratzscher, Ph.D. Marcel Fratzscher is President of DIW Berlin, one of the leading, independent economic research institutes and think tanks in Europe, Professor of Macroeconomics and Finance at Humboldt-University Berlin, and Chair of the German government expert committee on "Strenghtening investment in Germany". Marcel Fratzscher is member of the advisory board of the German development, non-profit Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, member of the supervisory board of the Hertie School of Governance. Moreover, he is co-owner and engaged at Kreuzberger Kinderstiftung and Member of the advisory board of the Society for German-Chinese Cultural Exchange (GeKA e.V.) Berlin. The work of Marcel Fratzscher focuses on topics in macroeconomics, monetary economics, financial markets and global economy. In September 2014, his book The Germany Illusion: Why we overestimate our Economy and need Europe was published. In his recent book The Battle for Redistribution – Why Germany is becoming more unequal (March 2016) he analyses the economic and social impact of the high and rising inequality in Germany. His prior professional experience includes work as Head of the International Policy Analysis at the European Central Bank (ECB), where he worked from 2001 to 2012; the Peterson Institute for International Economics in 2000-01; before and during the Asian financial crisis in 1996-98 at the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia for the Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID); and shorter periods at the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and in various parts of Asia and Africa. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute (EUI); a Master of Public Policy from Harvard University's John F.
[Show full text]
Six Reforms for the Eurozone
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS Six reforms for the Eurozone Risk sharing and market discipline in the euro area Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Clemens Fuest, Emmanuel Farhi, Henrik Enderlein, Isabel Schnabel, Jean Pisani- Ferry, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Marcel Fratzscher, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Nicolas Véron, Hélène Rey, Philippe Martin, Pierre- Olivier Gourinchas L’ex ministre grec de finances Yanis Varoufakis, a Brussel·les, durant una reunió del Consell de la Unió Europea. Font: EU Council Eurozone After nearly a decade of stagnation, the euro area is finally experiencing a robust recovery. While this comes as a relief —particularly in countries with high debt and unemployment levels— it is also breeding complacency about the underlying state of the euro area. Maintaining the status quo or settling for marginal changes would be a serious mistake, however, because the currency union continues to suffer from critical weaknesses, including financial fragility, suboptimal conditions for long-term growth, and deep economic and political divisions. While these problems have many causes, a poorly designed fiscal and financial architecture is an important contributor to all of them. First, the ‘doom loop’ between banks and sovereigns continues to pose a major threat to individual member states and the euro area as a whole. An incomplete banking union and fragmented capital markets prevent the euro PÀGINA 1 / 8 area from reaping the full benefits of monetary integration and from achieving better risk sharing through market mechanisms. Second, fiscal rules are non-transparent, pro-cyclical, and divisive, and have not been very effective in reducing public debts. The flaws in the euro area’s fiscal architecture have overburdened the ECB and increasingly given rise to political tensions.
[Show full text]
Portuguese Council Chaired Professor of European Studies Professor of Economics INSEAD, Singapore and Fontainebleau (France) ______
ANTONIO FATÁS Portuguese Council Chaired Professor of European Studies Professor of Economics INSEAD, Singapore and Fontainebleau (France) __________________________________________________________________ ACADEMIC AND PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE INSEAD, Fontainebleau (France) and Singapore Professor of Economics, Sept. 2002- Dean of tHe MBA Program, Sept. 2004-Aug. 2008. Area Chair, Economics and Political Sciences Department, 2013-2017 (also 2003- 2004 and 1996-2001) Associate Professor of Economics, Sept. 1997- Aug. 2002 Assistant Professor of Economics, Sept. 1993-Aug. 1997 McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Center for Business and Public Policy, WasHington DC Senior Policy Fellow, July 2008- Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London Leader Fintech and Digital Currency Policy and Research Network, August 2018- Research Fellow 2000- Research Affiliate, 1994-1999 Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research, Singapore Programme Director, International Macroeconomics, Money and Banking track, Sept 2019- Senior Fellow 2014- International Monetary Fund, WasHington DC Visiting Scholar, 2008-2009 and April 2007 Universidad de Valencia, Valencia (Spain) Instructor, 1987-1989 Other Positions INSEAD Board of Directors faculty representative January 2013- January 2016 External consultant for the IMF, OECD, World Bank, Board of Governors (US Federal Reserve) and the UK government Academic participant at tHe World Economic Forum, Davos February 2013 EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, Harvard University, Sept 1989-June 1993 M.A., Economics, Harvard University, Sept 1989-June 1991 Suficiencia Investigadora (M.S. equivalent), Economics, Universidad de Valencia, Sept 1987-June 1989 Licenciado (B.S. equivalent), Economics, Universidad de Valencia, Sept 1982- June 1987 PUBLICATIONS “Hysteresis and Business Cycles” (joint with Valerie Cerra and Sweta Saxena), Journal of Economic Literature, (forthcoming). “Market Structure, Regulation and the Fintech Revolution” in Fostering fintech for financial transformation: The case of South Korea.
[Show full text]
Nber Working Paper Series Capital Flows, Push Versus
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CAPITAL FLOWS, PUSH VERSUS PULL FACTORS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS Marcel Fratzscher Working Paper 17357 http://www.nber.org/papers/w17357 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 2011 I would like to thank Charles Engel, Kristin Forbes, Jeff Frankel, and my discussant Carmen Reinhart, as well as the other participants at the 2010 pre-conference and the 2011 Bretton Woods conference of the NBER/Sloan Global Financial Crisis project for comments and discussion. I am grateful to Daniel Schneider for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank, the Eurosystem, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2011 by Marcel Fratzscher. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis Marcel Fratzscher NBER Working Paper No. 17357 August 2011 JEL No. F21,F30,G11 ABSTRACT The causes of the 2008 collapse and subsequent surge in global capital flows remain an open and highly controversial issue. Employing a factor model coupled with a dataset of high-frequency portfolio capital flows to 50 economies, the paper finds that common shocks – key crisis events as well as changes to global liquidity and risk – have exerted a large effect on capital flows both in the crisis and in the recovery.
[Show full text]
Brexit and the Economics of Populism Ditchley Park, Oxfordshire 4-5 November 2016
Brexit and the economics of populism Ditchley Park, Oxfordshire 4-5 November 2016 #CERditchley Brexit and the economics of populism Ditchley Park Oxfordshire 4-5 November 2016 Brexit and the economics of populism Was Britain’s vote to leave the EU the first rebellion in a developed country against globalisation? There were some specific British issues behind the country’s vote to reject the EU. But it would be a mistake to dismiss Britain as an anomaly. The factors driving populism in the UK – resentment at stagnant living standards and inequality, discontent about migration, hostility towards elites and a sense of powerlessness – are present across the EU. So far, it is nationalists and nativists who have profited from this trend by exploiting fears over immigration to divide societies. But how should mainstream political forces respond to what has happened? Is further globalisation of trade and finance compatible with political stability? Is there a case for less labour mobility between countries, and is that possible? To what extent should we blame the macroeconomic policy response to the financial and euro crises? Do we need stronger institutions to regulate, stabilise and legitimise markets? Do we need more income redistribution to counter inequality, more investment, and stronger action against rent-seeking? Friday, 4 November 2016 15.00-15.30 Arrival of participants and registration 15.30-16.00 Afternoon tea 16.00-16.15 Welcome and introduction: John Kerr 16.15-17.45 Session 1: Was Brexit a rebellion against globalisation? On the face of it, Britain was not the obvious candidate to mount a rebellion against globalisation.
[Show full text]