Measuring the Great Depression
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Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher
THE DEBT-DEFLATION THEORY OF GREAT DEPRESSIONS BY IRVING FISHER INTRODUCTORY IN Booms and Depressions, I have developed, theoretically and sta- tistically, what may be called a debt-deflation theory of great depres- sions. In the preface, I stated that the results "seem largely new," I spoke thus cautiously because of my unfamiliarity with the vast literature on the subject. Since the book was published its special con- clusions have been widely accepted and, so far as I know, no one has yet found them anticipated by previous writers, though several, in- cluding myself, have zealously sought to find such anticipations. Two of the best-read authorities in this field assure me that those conclu- sions are, in the words of one of them, "both new and important." Partly to specify what some of these special conclusions are which are believed to be new and partly to fit them into the conclusions of other students in this field, I am offering this paper as embodying, in brief, my present "creed" on the whole subject of so-called "cycle theory." My "creed" consists of 49 "articles" some of which are old and some new. I say "creed" because, for brevity, it is purposely ex- pressed dogmatically and without proof. But it is not a creed in the sense that my faith in it does not rest on evidence and that I am not ready to modify it on presentation of new evidence. On the contrary, it is quite tentative. It may serve as a challenge to others and as raw material to help them work out a better product. -
Inflation and the Business Cycle
Inflation and the business cycle Michael McMahon Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 1 / 68 To Cover • Discuss the costs of inflation; • Investigate the relationship between money and inflation; • Introduce the Romer framework; • Discuss hyperinflations. • Shocks and the business cycle; • Monetary policy responses to business cycles. • Explain what the monetary transmission mechanism is; • Examine the link between inflation and GDP. Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 2 / 68 The Next Few Lectures Term structure, asset prices Exchange and capital rate market conditions Import prices Bank rate Net external demand CPI inflation Bank lending Monetary rates and credit Policy Asset purchase/ Corporate DGI conditions Framework sales demand loans Macro prudential Household policy demand deposits Inflation expectations Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 3 / 68 Inflation Definition Inflation is a sustained general rise in the price level in the economy. In reality we measure it using concepts such as: • Consumer Price Indices (CPI); • Producer Price Indices (PPI); • Deflators (GDP deflator, Consumption Expenditure Deflator) Money and Banking (5): Inflation & Bus. Cycle 4 / 68 Inflation: The Costs If all prices are rising at same rate, including wages and asset prices, what is the problem? • Information: Makes it harder to detect relative price changes and so hinders efficient operation of market; • Uncertainty: High inflation countries have very volatile inflation; • High inflation undermines role of money and encourages barter; • Growth - if inflation increases by 10%, reduce long term growth by 0.2% but only for countries with inflation higher than 15% (Barro); • Shoe leather costs/menu costs; • Interaction with tax system; • Because of fixed nominal contracts arbitrarily redistributes wealth; • Nominal contracts break down and long-term contracts avoided. -
Gold As a Store of Value
WORLD GOLD COUNCIL GOLD AS A STORE OF VALUE By Stephen Harmston Research Study No. 22 GOLD AS A STORE OF VALUE Research Study No. 22 November 1998 WORLD GOLD COUNCIL CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..............................................................................3 THE AUTHOR ..............................................................................................4 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................5 1 FIVE COUNTRIES, ONE TALE ..............................................................9 1.1 UNITED STATES: 1796 – 1997 ..................................................10 1.2 BRITAIN: 1596 – 1997 ................................................................14 1.3 FRANCE: 1820 – 1997 ................................................................18 1.4 GERMANY: 1873 – 1997 ............................................................21 1.5 JAPAN: 1880 – 1997....................................................................24 2 THE RECENT GOLD PRICE IN RELATION TO HISTORIC LEVELS....28 2.1 THE AVERAGE PURCHASING POWER OF GOLD OVER TIME ................................................................................28 2.2 DEMAND AND SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS ............................31 3 TOTAL RETURNS ON ASSETS ..........................................................35 3.1 CUMULATIVE WEALTH INDICES: BONDS, STOCKS AND GOLD IN THE US 1896-1996 ....................................................35 3.2 COMPARISONS WITH BRITAIN ..............................................38 -
Dangers of Deflation Douglas H
ERD POLICY BRIEF SERIES Economics and Research Department Number 12 Dangers of Deflation Douglas H. Brooks Pilipinas F. Quising Asian Development Bank http://www.adb.org Asian Development Bank P.O. Box 789 0980 Manila Philippines 2002 by Asian Development Bank December 2002 ISSN 1655-5260 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank. The ERD Policy Brief Series is based on papers or notes prepared by ADB staff and their resource persons. The series is designed to provide concise nontechnical accounts of policy issues of topical interest to ADB management, Board of Directors, and staff. Though prepared primarily for internal readership within the ADB, the series may be accessed by interested external readers. Feedback is welcome via e-mail ([email protected]). ERD POLICY BRIEF NO. 12 Dangers of Deflation Douglas H. Brooks and Pilipinas F. Quising December 2002 ecently, there has been growing concern about deflation in some Rcountries and the possibility of deflation at the global level. Aggregate demand, output, and employment could stagnate or decline, particularly where debt levels are already high. Standard economic policy stimuli could become less effective, while few policymakers have experience in preventing or halting deflation with alternative means. Causes and Consequences of Deflation Deflation refers to a fall in prices, leading to a negative change in the price index over a sustained period. The fall in prices can result from improvements in productivity, advances in technology, changes in the policy environment (e.g., deregulation), a drop in prices of major inputs (e.g., oil), excess capacity, or weak demand. -
Deflation: a Business Perspective
Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation. -
Job Creation Programs of the Great Depression: the WPA and the CCC Name Redacted Specialist in Labor Economics
Job Creation Programs of the Great Depression: The WPA and the CCC name redacted Specialist in Labor Economics January 14, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R41017 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Job Creation Programs of the Great Depression: the WPA and the CCC ith the exception of the Great Depression, the recession that began in December 2007 is the nation’s most severe according to various labor market indicators. The W 7.1 million jobs cut from employer payrolls between December 2007 and September 2009, when it is thought the latest recession might have ended, is more than has been recorded for any postwar recession. Job loss was greater in a relative sense during the latest recession as well, recording a 5.1% decrease over the period.1 In addition, long-term unemployment (defined as the proportion of workers without jobs for longer than 26 weeks) was higher in September 2009—at 36%—than at any time since 1948.2 As a result, momentum has been building among some members of the public policy community to augment the job creation and worker assistance measures included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (P.L. 111-5). In an effort to accelerate improvement in the unemployment rate and job growth during the recovery period from the latest recession,3 some policymakers recently have turned their attention to programs that temporarily created jobs for workers unemployed during the nation’s worst economic downturn—the Great Depression—with which the latest recession has been compared.4 This report first describes the social policy environment in which the 1930s job creation programs were developed and examines the reasons for their shortcomings then and as models for current- day countercyclical employment measures. -
AVAILABLE from a Price Index for Deflation of Academic R&D
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 067 986 HE 003 406 TITLE A Price Index for Deflation of Academic R&D Expenditures. INSTITUTION National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. REPORT NO NSF-72-310 PUB DATE 72 NOTE 38p. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing- Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 ($.25, 3800-00122) EDRS PRICE MF-$0.65 HC-$3.29 DESCRIPTORS Costs; Educational Finance; *Educational Research; Financial Problems; *Financial Support; *Higher Education; Research; Research and Development Centers; *Scientific Research; *Statistical Data ABSTRACT This study relates to price trends affecting research and development (R&D) activities at academic institutions. Part I of this report provides the overall results of the study with limited discussion of measurement concepts, methodology and limitations. Part II deals with price indexes and deflation-general concepts and methodology. Part III discusses methodology and data base and Part IV describes alternative computations and approaches. Statistical tables and charts are included.(Author/CS) cO Cr` CD :w U S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH EDUCATION & WELFARE OFFICE OF EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HASBEEN REPRO DUCED EXACTLY ASRECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIG INATING IT POINTS OFVIEW OR OPIN IONS STATED DONOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIALOFFICE OF EDU CATION POSITION OR POLICY RELATED PUBLICATIONS Title Number Price National Patterns of R&D Resources: Funds and Manpower in the United States, 1953-72 72-300 $0.50 Resources for Scientific Activities at Universi- ties and Colleges, 1971 72-315 In press Availability of Publications Those publications marked with a price should be obtained directly from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. -
Does Google Search Index Help Track and Predict Inflation Rate? an Exploratory Analysis for India
Does Google Search Index Help Track and Predict Inflation Rate? An Exploratory Analysis for India By G. P. Samanta1 Abstract: The forward looking outlook or market expectations on inflation constitute valuable input to monetary policy, particularly in the ‘inflation targeting' regime. However, prediction or quantification of market expectations is a challenging task. The time lag in the publication of official statistics further aggravates the complexity of the issue. One way of dealing with non-availability of relevant data in real- time basis involves assessing the current or nowcasting the inflation based on a suitable model using past or present data on related variables. The forecast may be generated by extrapolating the model. Any error in the assessment of the current inflationary pressure thus may lead to erroneous forecasts if the latter is conditional upon the former. Market expectations may also be quantified by conducting suitable surveys. However, surveys are associated with substantial cost and resource implications, in addition to facing certain conceptual and operational challenges in terms of representativeness of the sample, estimation techniques, and so on. As a potential alternative to address this issue, recent literature is examining if the information content of the vast Google trend data generated through the volume of searches people make on the keyword ‘inflation' or a suitable combination of keywords. The empirical literature on the issue is mostly exploratory in nature and has reported a few promising results. Inspired by this line of works, we have examined if the search volume on the keywords ‘inflation’ or ‘price’in the Google search engine is useful to track and predict inflation rate in India. -
Burgernomics: a Big Mac Guide to Purchasing Power Parity
Burgernomics: A Big Mac™ Guide to Purchasing Power Parity Michael R. Pakko and Patricia S. Pollard ne of the foundations of international The attractive feature of the Big Mac as an indi- economics is the theory of purchasing cator of PPP is its uniform composition. With few power parity (PPP), which states that price exceptions, the component ingredients of the Big O Mac are the same everywhere around the globe. levels in any two countries should be identical after converting prices into a common currency. As a (See the boxed insert, “Two All Chicken Patties?”) theoretical proposition, PPP has long served as the For that reason, the Big Mac serves as a convenient basis for theories of international price determina- market basket of goods through which the purchas- tion and the conditions under which international ing power of different currencies can be compared. markets adjust to attain long-term equilibrium. As As with broader measures, however, the Big Mac an empirical matter, however, PPP has been a more standard often fails to meet the demanding tests of elusive concept. PPP. In this article, we review the fundamental theory Applications and empirical tests of PPP often of PPP and describe some of the reasons why it refer to a broad “market basket” of goods that is might not be expected to hold as a practical matter. intended to be representative of consumer spending Throughout, we use the Big Mac data as an illustra- patterns. For example, a data set known as the Penn tive example. In the process, we also demonstrate World Tables (PWT) constructs measures of PPP for the value of the Big Mac sandwich as a palatable countries around the world using benchmark sur- measure of PPP. -
Chapter 24 the Great Depression
Chapter 24 The Great Depression 1929-1933 Section 1: Prosperity Shattered • Recount why financial experts issued warnings about business practices during the 1920s. • Describe why the stock market crashed in 1929. • Understand how the banking crisis and subsequent business failures signaled the beginning of the Great Depression. • Analyze the main causes of the Great Depression. Objective 1: Recount why financial experts issued warnings about business practices during the 1920s. • Identify the warnings that financial experts issued during the 1920s: • 1 Agricultural crisis • 2 Sick industry • 3 Consumers buying on credit • 4 Stock speculation • 5 Deion is # 1 Objective 1: Recount why financial experts issued warnings about business practices during the 1920s. • Why did the public ignore these warnings: • 1 Economy was booming • 2 People believed it would continue to grow Objective 2: Describe why the stock market crashed in 1929. Factors That Caused the Stock Market Crash 1. Rising interest rates 2. Investors sell stocks 3. Stock prices plunge 4. Heavy sells continue The Crash Objective 3: Understand how the banking crisis and subsequent business failures signaled the beginning of the Great Depression. Depositor withdrawal Banking Crisis Default on loans The Banking Crisis Margin calls and Subsequent Business Failures Unable to obtain resources Business Failures Lay-offs and closings Objective 4: Analyze the main causes of the Great Depression. • Main causes of the Great Depression and how it contributed to the depression: • Global economic crises, the U.S didn’t have foreign consumers. • The income gap deprived businesses of national consumers • The consumers debt led to economic chaos Section 2: Hard Times • Describe how unemployment during the Great Depression affected the lives of American workers. -
How Real Is the Threat of Deflation to the Banking Industry?
An Update on Emerging Issues in Banking How Real is the Threat of Deflation to the Banking Industry? February 27, 2003 Overview The recession that began in March 2001 has had a generally benign effect on the banking industry, which remains highly profitable and well capitalized. The current financial strength of the industry is an important buffer against the effects of economic shocks. Nevertheless, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) routinely considers a number of economic scenarios that could develop over the next several quarters to evaluate factors that could result in the erosion in the financial health of individual banks or the industry. One such scenario that could present a major challenge to the banking industry involves deflation. This paper outlines the current debate over deflation, focusing on its potential effect on the banking industry. What is Deflation and How Does It Affect the Economy? Deflation refers to a decline in the general price level, usually caused by a sharp decline in money or credit supply or a severe contraction in the economy.1 Although sometimes used interchangeably, deflation differs from disinflation -- a falling rate of inflation. Although there have been sector-specific downward price adjustments, the U.S. economy has not experienced an outright decline in the aggregate price level since World War II, except for a brief and mild deflation in 1949.2 However, the inflation rate in the U.S. has fallen steadily since the early 1980s. In order to fully understand the effect of deflation on economic output, it is important to differentiate the concept of a "real" value from a "nominal" value. -
An Assessment of Modern Monetary Theory
An assessment of modern monetary theory M. Kasongo Kashama * Introduction Modern monetary theory (MMT) is a so-called heterodox economic school of thought which argues that elected governments should raise funds by issuing money to the maximum extent to implement the policies they deem necessary. While the foundations of MMT were laid in the early 1990s (Mosler, 1993), its tenets have been increasingly echoed in the public arena in recent years. The surge in interest was first reflected by high-profile British and American progressive policy-makers, for whom MMT has provided a rationale for their calls for Green New Deals and other large public spending programmes. In doing so, they have been backed up by new research work and publications from non-mainstream economists in the wake of Mosler’s work (see, for example, Tymoigne et al. (2013), Kelton (2017) or Mitchell et al. (2019)). As the COVID-19 crisis has been hitting the global economy since early this year, the most straightforward application of MMT’s macroeconomic policy agenda – that is, money- financed fiscal expansion or helicopter money – has returned to the forefront on a wider scale. Some consider not only that it is “time for helicopters” (Jourdan, 2020) but also that this global crisis must become a trigger to build on MMT precepts, not least in the euro area context (Bofinger, 2020). The MMT resurgence has been accompanied by lively political discussions and a heated economic debate, bringing fierce criticism from top economists including P. Krugman, G. Mankiw, K. Rogoff or L. Summers. This short article aims at clarifying what is at stake from a macroeconomic stabilisation perspective when considering MMT implementation in advanced economies, paying particular attention to the euro area.