DOCSLIB.ORG

Quantitative Risk Management

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Quantitative Risk Management Quantitative Risk Management 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben SeiteCpt 1. ManfredDeutsche Mueller Lufthansa AG Head of Flight Safety Research Lufthansa AG Lecturer on Risk Management, Univ. Bremen SAMSYS - Safety Performance Index (SPI) Quantitative risk assessment and their protective measures in aviation More than 25 University Experts Institute for Production an Logistics GmbH Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics affiliated institute at the University of Bremen Chair of Flight Guidance & Air Transportation Section Operation / Safety Project Leader Institute of Strategic Management Software Development Institute of Flight System Dynamics Institute of Ergonomics Institute of Mathematics 2 Is flying an „ultra-safe“ system ? 40 years ago driving to the airport was the most dangerous part of an Airline-flight Hull Loss per Million Sectors (1958-2011) 14 12 …last 40 years in Germany: 10 Increase in car-safety ~40 times 8 Increase in flight safety ~4 times 6 4 2 0 1 1960 6 11 16 21 198026 31 36 41 2000 46 51 Risk of driving to the airport in Germany versus an average IATA-Flight (2014) Pfatal car ride: 7,2 x 10e-8 (1 in ~15 Million) Pfatal flight: 0,3 x 10e-6 (1 in ~3 Million) driving to the airport is now 5 times safer than an Ø Airline-Flight 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 6 Deutsche Lufthansa AG >400 cars Why don‘t we see the problems ? The number of all Airline-flights worldwide per year equals the number of car-trips in Germany within 4 hours 6 years of worldwide Airline flights => 1 day car traffic in Germany: ~5 fatalities in cars per day, (without country roads ~2 fatalities daily) 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 8 Deutsche Lufthansa AG Pilot Manager Ship owner Passenger Economical pressure Operational topics after deregulation… every 90 hours one per month How dangerous are various jobs? Number of fatal accidents per 100.000 workers per year fisherman 123 window cleaner 10 seaman 68 garbageman 9 railroad worker 31 farmer 8 scaffold builder 30 construction 8 roofer 25 worker lumberjack 20 crane driver 8 docker 19 chemical worker 8 miner 15 Fireman 7 truck driver 15 policeman 7 canal worker 14 metalworker 6 farm hand 12 painter 6 railroadman 11 soldier 6 roadworker 10 electrician 5 University of Oxford Continental CEO Jeff Smisek (cost saving: worked one year without getting salary) 2010 „Manager of the year“ 2004 bis 2009 „Most Admired Global Airline“ „Highest Ranked Network Airline“ increasing economical pressure Continental Airlines Safety is our top priority: Fligths can stop for extra fuel en route if necessary! Continental Airlines fuel emergencies (less than 30 minutes of fuel!) at Newark Airport 2005: 19 2006: 42 2007: 96 Challenge for Flight Operations in the 21st Century Defining an acceptable level of Safety ALoSP (Limit) measuring the actual Identifying risk level Deviations (Δ) Corrective action(s) ALoSP (Acceptable Level of Safety Performance) How safe should it be? What should be the safety target for an Airline flight? 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 17 Deutsche Lufthansa AG ALoSP (Acceptable Level of Safety Performance) versus Lufthansa accident rate LH: ALoSP 10-8 in average one total loss every ~100 years EU: ALoSP 10-7 in average one total loss every ~10 years IATA-Rate: 0,5 x 10-6 in average one total loss every ~2 years 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 18 Deutsche Lufthansa AG Challenge for Flight Operations in the 21st Century Defining an acceptable level of Safety ALoSP (Limit) measuring the actual Identifying risk level Deviations (Δ) Corrective action(s) How dangerous are various jobs? Number of fatal accidents per 100.000 workers per year fisherman 123 window cleaner 10 seaman 68 garbageman 9 railroad worker 31 farmer 8 scaffold builder 30 construction 8 roofer 25 worker lumberjack 20 crane driver 8 docker 19 chemical worker 8 airline pilot 15 Fireman 7 miner 15 policeman 7 truck driver 15 metalworker 6 canal worker 14 painter 6 farm hand 12 soldier 6 railroadman 11 electrician 5 roadworker 10 University of Oxford How dangerous are various jobs? Number of fatal accidents per 100.000 workers per year fisherman 123 window cleaner 10 cargo pilot 90 garbageman 9 seaman 68 farmer 8 railroad worker 31 construction 8 scaffold builder 30 worker roofer 25 crane driver 8 lumberjack 20 chemical worker 8 docker 19 Fireman 7 miner 15 policeman 7 truck driver 15 metalworker 6 canal worker 14 painter 6 farm hand 12 soldier 6 railroadman 11 electrician 5 roadworker 10 University of Oxford TOP 10 MOST DANGEROUS US-JOBS IN 2010 (with fatal work injury rate) 1. Fishermen 116,0 2. Logging workers 91,9 3. Airplane pilots 70,6 4. Farmers and ranchers 41,4 5. Mining machine operators 38,7 6. Roofers 32,4 7. Sanitation workers 29,8 8. Truck drivers and delivery workers 21,8 9. Industrial machine workers 20,3 10. Police officers 18,0 Why is this accepted by the authorities ? Safety Managemet System (SMS) ICAO DOC 9859 / 01.01.2009: …an Airline has to define an acceptable level of safety (ALoSP) Definition: An acceptable level of safety is a safety level which is acceptable for the respective Airline. (e.g. 10E-5) Do not rely on oversight authorities! LH-Group:1 per month 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 24 Deutsche Lufthansa AG Aviation Accident Statistic Kind of Operation LH-Safety Target Best Practice IATA Ø Risk 10 e-3 10 e-4 10 e-5 10 e-6 10 e-7 10e-8 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 25 Deutsche Lufthansa AG log-scale Aviation Accident Statistic Kind of Operation LH-Safety Target Best Practice IATA Ø Business Risk Glider flying competition 10 e-3 10 e-4 10 e-5 10 e-6 10 e-7 10e-8 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 26 Deutsche Lufthansa AG log-scale Theoretical backgroud STRUCTURE defines RISK Prof. Dr. Franz Porzsolt, Univ. Ulm 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 27 Deutsche Lufthansa AG Status Status T A P B H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ angle deviation < 0,000001° H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ H+ He++ H+ H+ H+ H+ Transition Probability (PT) -8 PT = 10 => He++ H+ + H+ hydrogen nucleus Transition Sunlight for Probability 5 x 107 years 25.07.2016 Bitte diesen Text mit dem Präsentationstitel überschreiben Seite 33 Deutsche Lufthansa AG Quantitative Study Downhill Skiing approx. 8 Mio. skiers in Germany approx. 80 Mio. skiing days per winter TP Skiing Accidents 80.000 severe injuries per winter personal risk 10-3 per skiing day approx. 4 victims daily per skiing area Transition Probability PT Did your car´s safety belt ever save your life? TP ~10% of the audience PT 10e-5: required in 1 out of 100.000 car rides per person: ~500 rides per year: Ø every 200 years Error interval: minimum ONE, maximum less than ALL Technische Universität Berlin Calculation Model Accident Probability Accident Number of flights Incidents correlating Top Event world wide to a Top Event Incident Probability Transition Probability Accident ASR DLH ? Number of flights Lufthansa Incidents DLH SPI corr. to a Top Event Incident Probability Enis Aksu FRA CF Accident Probability DLH Technische Universität Berlin SPI calculation for a specific aircraft Aviation Data Aircraft Manufacturer Provider Accident Database series and event (Airbus) (OAG, Innovata, (AccidentECCAIRS, ASN etc.) Ascend) Probability Probability Incident worldwide Accident worldwide PIW = IW / FW PAW = AW / FW Calculation of worldwide Incidents in specific Incidents Flights Accidents Aircraft Series and Event worldwide worldwide worldwide IW FW AW IW = IA x (FW / FA) x ASF x UCF Source External Transition Airline Safety Probability Factor PT ASF Unreported Cases Factor Incidents in Flights in Accidents in Airline ) UCF Airline Airline (theoretical) ASRIA FA AA = IA x PT Lufthansa ( Probability ProbabilityAccident Incident in Airline Accident in Airline Airline Airline PIA = IA / FA PAA =DLH AA / FA ? (Lufthansa) © Daniel Schoolmann Enis Aksu FRA CF 38 Technische Universität Berlin Incidents correlating to a Top Event Mid Air Collision with TCAS Standard Events ASR Datenbank IATA, ANSP‘s, TCAS-OWN etc. PILOT AIRPROX Top Event TCAS-ATC, ACAS ALERT OTHER PILOT LOSS OF SEPARATION MAC AIRPROX (NO NEAR MIDAIR- TCAS) COLLISIONS TCAS FALSE WARNINGS TCAS NUISANCE OWN TCAS NUISANCE OTHER Enis Aksu FRA CF Technische Universität Berlin Number of TCAS / AIRPROX Events all Lufthansa Fleets 120 111 107 100 99 94 97 80 80 80 60 TCAS-OWN PILOT 61 62 TCAS-ATC,OTHER PILOT 40 AIRPROX (NO TCAS) 20 20 18 19 17 14 10 12 11 8 7 8 67 58 0 3 2 3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Enis Aksu FRA CF Technische Universität Berlin Mid Air Collision Risk 1 Accident 23.260.877 18.609 Honeywell Study -4 8,0 x 10 -5 TP 5,4 x 10 Airline Safety Factor x 2,4 ASR Accident 208 DLH ? ≈ 80 % 729.590 -8 240 SPI = 1,9 x 10 3,3 x 10-4 Enis Aksu FRA CF Accident Probability DLH Evidence Based Risk Management Every Flight is confronted with a number of various threats. The summ of all different threats has to be <10-8. The probability of a single threat has to be significantly lower than10-8. How can we calculate the Total Risk? Technische Universität München Overall Accident Risk of an Airline Flight • Failure Scenarios: , ,…, • Overall Failure Probability1 2 : Pr = Pr = 1 Pr 1 ∪ 2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ Independent Risks: − 1 ∩ 2 ∩ ⋯ ∩ = 1 1 Pr 1 Pr … 1 Pr − −Pr 1 + Pr− +2 Pr( −) Approximation for Aviation≈ Risks1 : Pr2F =⋯Pr + Pr + Pr( ) 1 2 ⋯ LH-ALoSP Risk Addition -8 RG ~ 10 Σ -9 -9 -9 -9 RA ~ 10 RA ~ 10 RA ~ 10 RA ~ 10 Σ e.g.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Skydeck Live: the Science of a Meaningful Life 15 June 2018
    Skydeck Live: The Science of a Meaningful Life 15 June 2018 Author Charles Duhigg (MBA 2003) on how we make meaning Charles Duhigg is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and a New York Times best selling author. His first book, The Power of Habit, focused on the science of habit formation. And his second, Smarter, Faster, Better, focused on the science of productivity. During spring reunions this year, Duhigg spoke to alumni about his next potential project, understanding the science of a meaningful life-- essentially how can we live lives that are not just happy, but truly meaningful? And what are the conditions that create that meaning? And to illustrate his ideas, he told the story of a fateful 2010 flight from Singapore to Sydney. What do we know about why some experiences give you the sense of progress, give you the sense of accomplishment that you're reaching some potential, you're achieving something new? What are the preconditions that make some hard moments more meaningful than others? To answer this I want to tell you one more story. This is a story about Qantas flight 32. Now before I tell the story, how many of you flew to the reunion-- flew to the reunion, came to the reunion on a plane? OK, you're going to love this story when you're flying back. So Qantas flight 32 is this flight that took off in 2010 from Singapore to Sydney, Australia. It's an Airbus A380. So an Airbus A380, for those of you who don't know-- and you've probably flown in this before if you've gone from one continent to another-- is essentially the most amazing airplane that has ever been invented.
    [Show full text]
  • Australian Court Closes Class.Pdf
    NOVEMBER 2016 COMMENTARY Australian Court “Closes Class” Dismisses Claims of Class Action Members Prior to Judgment or Settlement Key Points • In Australia, class actions operate by way of an opt-out model that does not require the consent or identifica- tion of class members at the time the proceedings are commenced. As such, there can be significant uncer- tainty in settlement negotiations as to which (and accordingly how many) members will ultimately register to share in any settlement amount. To conclude a class action in which the class members receive compensa- tion or other personal benefit, it is necessary to identify the class members. This usually occurs through a class closure process by which class members must register their participation. • In Lam v Rolls Royce PLC (No 5) [2016] NSWSC 1332 (“Lam (No 5)”), opt-out notices and a class closure pro- cess had occurred, but 84 class members had neither opted out nor registered their participation in the class action. On the respondent’s application, the Supreme Court of New South Wales determined that it would dismiss, finally, the claims of those 84 class members. The decision is novel in terms of its timing—prior to any judgment or settlement. • The decision in Lam (No 5) establishes a route for parties to achieve greater certainty in seeking to quantify a class action claim and reaching a settlement. However, the court must ensure that adequate notice is given to unregistered members who stand to lose their rights to compensation. Background By the time the application the subject of Lam (No On 4 November 2010, Qantas Flight 32 departed Changi 5) was heard, the class action was already at an Airport in Singapore with 469 passengers and crew on advanced stage.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Pilots' Decision-Making Under High Workload: Recognition-Primed Or
    Proceedings 19th Triennial Congress of the IEA, Melbourne 9-14 August 2015 Pilots’ Decision-Making under High Workload: Recognition-Primed or Not – An Engineering Point of View Patrick Gontara, Verena Porstnera, Hans-Juergen Hoermannb, Klaus Benglera aInstitute of Ergonomics, Technische Universität München, Munich, GERMANY bInstitute of Aerospace Medicine, German Aerospace Center, Hamburg, GERMANY The objective of this study is to analyse pilots’ decision-making behaviour in terms of naturalistic decision-making. In line with the highly experienced group of pilots (n = 120), recognition-primed decisions are expected to dominate. In a full-flight simulator experiment, with two groups of pilots (short-haul and long-haul pilots) with different levels of practice and training, we were able to show that only about one-third of the pilots make recognition-primed decisions. Results may indicate that the current training practice helps pilots to handle foreseeable problems very well, yet does not support pilots in ambivalent and new decision-making situations. Based on these findings, we recommend the incorporation of more unforeseen events in recurrent training simulator missions to train pilots in handling unknown situations. Practitioner Summary: The results from a flight-simulator study showed that pilots’ decision-making is more analytical than recognition-primed. A possible reason for this could be the pressure for justification, or simply that pilots cannot use their experience in unforeseen situations. Hence, training should include more unforeseen events. Keywords: recognition-primed decision (RPD), naturalistic decision-making (NDM), flight-simulator, crew resource management, FOR-DEC 1. Introduction Checklists and procedures were introduced in the aviation domain decades ago to enhance different aspects of safety, standardisation and human reliability (e.g.
    [Show full text]
  • Avionics Evolution Impact on Requirements Issues and Validation and Verification
    NOT FAA POLICY OR GUIDANCE LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT 23 NOVEMBER 2015 DOT/FAA/TC-xx/xx SE2020 Task Order 22 Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center Aviation Research Division Atlantic City International Airport New Jersey 08405 Avionics Evolution Impact on Requirements Issues and Validation and Verification DISCLAIMER This draft document is being made available as a “Limited Release” document by the FAA Software and Digital Systems (SDS) Program and does not constitute FAA policy or guidance. This document is being distributed by permission by the Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR). The research information in this document represents only the viewpoint of its subject matter expert authors. The FAA is concerned that its research is not released to the public before full editorial review is completed. However, a Limited Release distribution does allow exchange of research knowledge in a way that will benefit the parties receiving the documentation and, at the same time, not damage perceptions about the quality of FAA research. This draft document does not include the Appendices due to scope of topics discussed. Applicability of their inclusion in the final version will be considered. NOT FAA POLICY OR GUIDANCE LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT 23 November 2015 NOT FAA POLICY OR GUIDANCE LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT 23 November 2015 NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the objective of this report.
    [Show full text]
  • Media Release Results 2011
    QANTAS REPORTS STRONG FULL-YEAR PROFIT IN CHALLENGING CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTS: Underlying Profit Before Tax: $552 million, up 46 per cent Revenue: $14.9 billion, up 8 per cent Operating cash flow: $1.8 billion, up 32 per cent Earnings growth in all segments Result achieved despite $224 million impact of natural disasters Statutory Profit Before Tax: $323 million, up 81 per cent No final dividend declared SYDNEY, 24 August 2011: The Qantas Group today announced Underlying Profit Before Tax (Underlying PBT) of $552 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2011. Qantas Chief Executive Officer Alan Joyce said the result was achieved despite a number of challenges facing the Qantas Group and the global aviation industry. “This result reflects the strength of the Qantas Group’s portfolio and is our best performance since the global financial crisis” Mr Joyce said. “We achieved the result while overcoming significant external and operational factors, including a series of natural disasters, a 28 per cent increase in average fuel prices and an underperforming international business. “We are pleased to report improved earnings for Qantas Domestic and Qantas Freight and record results for Jetstar and Qantas Frequent Flyer. Given the aviation sector’s inherent volatility, the flexibility to generate revenue from different parts of the business and different market sectors is a major strength for the Group. “But it is important to put the result in context. The Group’s planned capital expenditure over the next two years exceeds $5 billion. Fuel prices are expected to remain high and there is considerable uncertainty in the global economy.
    [Show full text]
  • Safety Issues and Shortcomings with Requirements Definition, Validation, and Verification Processes
    DOT/FAA/TC-16/39 Safety Issues and Shortcomings Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center With Requirements Definition, Aviation Research Division Atlantic City International Airport Validation, and Verification New Jersey 08405 Processes Final Report December 2016 Final Report This document is available to the U.S. public through the National Technical Information Services (NTIS), Springfield, Virginia 22161. This document is also available from the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center at actlibrary.tc.faa.gov. U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the objective of this report. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the funding agency. This document does not constitute FAA policy. Consult the FAA sponsoring organization listed on the Technical Documentation page as to its use. This report is available at the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center’s Full-Text Technical Reports page: actlibrary.tc.faa.gov in Adobe Acrobat portable document format (PDF). Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. DOT/FAA/TC-16/39 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date SAFETY ISSUES AND SHORTCOMINGS WITH REQUIREMENTS December 2016 DEFINITION, VALIDATION, AND VERIFICATION PROCESSES FINAL REPORT 6.
    [Show full text]
  • Flight Operations Training Kpis
    Uncontained Engine Failure A380-800 QF32 SIN-SYD 4th November 2010 Michael Von Reth - Customer Service Manager August 2012 A380 Statistical Data Key figures Capacity Overall length 72.72 meters Passengers Wingspan 79.75 meters Typical seating (3-class) 525 Range 15.400 kilometers Maximum seating 853 Dimensions Freight Cabin length Capacity underfloor 38 LD3 Containers Main deck 49.90 meters pallet number max 13 Upper deck 44.93 meters Performance Fuselage width 7.14 meters Max take-off weight 560 metric tonnes Max Cabin width Max landing weight 386 metric tonnes Main deck 6.54 meters Max fuel capacity 320 metric tonnes Upper deck 5.80 meters Cabin Interior (Qantas) Engines Passenger seats 450 4 Roll Royce Trent 900x4 Crew Jump seats 24 Thrust range 311kN Galleys 20 Toilets 16+1 (flight deck) Qantas Flight Attendant Video QF32 Flight Details . Qantas A380-800 VH-OQA . Second leg of LHR-SIN-SYD flight . 5 Flight Crew (Due to training duties) . 24 Cabin Crew (2 crew supernumerary) . 450 passengers First signs . Two loud explosive sounds about 5 min after Take Off . Aircraft shuddering . Engine cowling partially blown off . Engine No.2 damaged, . Structural damage on left wing . Loss of Fuel and Hydraulic Fluid Damage to the Aircraft Damage to the Aircraft Alze-jera News and Capt. David Evans In-flight P.A. - Video First thoughts . EP! What is the next step to follow? . Need for change of priorities into Safety operating mode . Managing an event with no procedure to follow First actions . Relaying information to the flight deck . SO sent to assess the situation .
    [Show full text]
  • Learning from Success: a Discussion Paper September 2017 Contents
    Learning From Success: A Discussion Paper September 2017 Contents Introduction ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 The limitations of only looking at failure ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 2 The limitations of our traditional approach to looking at what goes wrong for learning �������������������� 2 The benefits of a more positive approach �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 What can we learn from positive psychology? ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 The value of near miss investigation as an examination of success �������������������������������������������������������� 7 Why find out about what went right? �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 A positive methodology for learning from success �������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10 Near miss/near hit investigations ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 10 Scenario 1 Case Study: Near miss/near hit involving Qantas Flight 32 �������������������������������������������������� 12 Serious Incidents ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
    [Show full text]
  • 2011 Annual Review
    Annual Review 2011 Building a stronger Qantas 12 Qantas – 90 Years of Excellence 14 Chairman’s Report 16 CEO’s Report 18 Financial Performance 20 Sustainable Operations 22 Safety First 26 Strong Complementary Brands 36 Great People 40 Superior Infrastructure 46 Caring for Customers 50 Environmental Responsibility 54 Giving Back 58 Board of Directors 60 Financial Calendar THE AVIATION INDUSTRY IS CHANGING THE QANTAS GROUP IN 2011 The Qantas Group faces a unique range of challenges and opportunities. We are in a strong position to address the challenges and realise the opportunities – but we must take decisive action, as we have throughout our history. The Qantas Group SAFETY IS ALWAYS THE QANTAS GROUP’S FIRST PRIORITY WE INVEST $1.5 BILLION IN AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE EACH YEAR SAFETY FIRST From our response to the QF32 incident to the risks posed by volcanic ash disruptions, we never compromise on the highest standards of safety. A safety-first culture across the Group ensures that risks are identified and addressed swiftly and decisively. We invest millions of dollars in training to ensure that when incidents do occur our people react calmly under pressure. Nothing is more important to us than the safety of our customers and our employees. A380 Aircraft Maintenance Engineer Nelson Lau Annual Review 2011 3 The Qantas Group THE QANTAS GROUP FACES NEW CHALLENGES AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES COMPETITIVENESS AND SUSTAINABILITY The Asia-Pacific is now the world’s fastest-growing region for air travel demand. The low-cost carrier revolution continues at pace. New political and regulatory factors are emerging. In this environment it is vital that the Qantas Group takes the necessary steps to maximise productivity and competitiveness, renew aircraft and technology, meet customer needs, realise growth opportunities and enshrine business resilience.
    [Show full text]
  • The Boeing 737 MAX Accidents
    1 The Boeing 737 MAX Accidents Dewi Daniels Software Safety Limited Abstract On 29 October 2018, a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft departed from Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, Jakarta, Indonesia. The aircraft was less than three months old. Twelve minutes later, it had crashed, killing all 189 pas- sengers and crew on board. On 10 March 2019, another Boeing 737 MAX air- craft departed from Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, Ethiopia. This air- craft was less than four months old. Six minutes later, it too had crashed, killing all 157 passengers and crew on board. This paper presents an analysis as to why these two accidents happened. 1 Introduction In October 2018, a Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX aircraft crashed in Indonesia. Less than five months later, in March 2019, an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX crashed in Ethiopia. These two accidents killed 346 passengers and crew. The two Boeing 737 MAX accidents came as a shock to the worldwide aircraft industry, which had hitherto enjoyed an outstanding safety record. Modern airliners are exceptionally safe. Boeing’s own Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents (Boeing 2017) reports that the 10-year aver- age fatal accident rate for scheduled commercial passenger operations is 0.16 fa- tal accidents per million departures. Until these two accidents, the recent variants of the Boeing 737 had achieved an accident rate of 0.08 fatal accidents per million departures. A pilot or passenger could expect to experience 6.25 million flights on average before becoming involved in a fatal accident. Everyone was shocked that a new aircraft design from a highly respected air- craft manufacturer could be involved in two fatal accidents so soon after entering service.
    [Show full text]
  • Advisory Circular
    U.S. Department Advisory of Transportation Federal Aviatlon Admlnlstration Circular Subject: FAA CERTIFICATED MAINTENANCE Date: 3 /6/g 7 AC No: 140-71 AGENCIES DIRECTORY Initiated by: AN-640 Change: 1. PURPOSE. This advisory circular (AC) transmits a consolidated directory of all certificated Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) repair stations and manufacturer’s maintenancefacilities. The repair stations and manufacturer’s maintenancefacilities were certificated as of January 2 1, 1997, under the authority of Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR) part 145, and the directories are current as of January 21, 1997. 2. CANCELLATION. This AC cancelsAC 140-7H, FAA Certificated Maintenance Agencies Directory, dated July 24, 1995. 3. DESCRIPTION. Appendix 1 is a listing of repair stations and appendix 2 is a listing of manufacturer’s maintenancefacilities, their addresses,ratings, and codes. 4. RATING LEGENDS, CODES, AND EXPLANATIONS. a. FAA certificated repair station rating codesare describedin detail in part -l45, and are: (1) AF-Airframe l-composite construction, small aircraft 2-composite construction, large aircraft 3-all metal construction, small aircraft 4-all metal construction, large aircraft (2) PP-Powerplant l--reciprocating engines,400 hp or less 2-reciprocating engines,more than 400 hp 3-turbine engines (3) PRP-Propeller l--fixed pitch and ground adjustablepropellers - wood, metal, or composite 2-all other propellers, by make (4) RAD-Radio l-communication equipment 2-navigation equipment 3-radar equipment AC 140-71 316197 (5) INS-Instrument l-mechanical 2--electrical 3-gyroscopic 44-electronic (6) AAC-Accessory l-mechanical 2--electrical 3-electronic (7) L--Limited AAC --accessories AF --airframe EE -emergency equipment FAB -aircraft fabric FL0 -floats INS -instruments LG -landing gear NDT -nondestructive testing OT --other PP -powerplant PRP -propellers RAD -radio equipment RB --rotor blades SS ---specialized (8) Ratings may be limited to a specific model of aircraft, powerplant, propeller, radio, instrument, accessory,or parts thereof.
    [Show full text]
  • Fly Quiet 2020 4Th Quarter Report
    4th Quarter 2020 Report Fly Quiet Program Chicago O’Hare International Airport Visit the O’Hare Noise Webpage on the Internet at www.flychicago.com/oharenoise th 4 Quarter 2020 Report BACKGROUND On June 17, 1997, the City of Chicago announced that airlines operating at Chicago O’Hare International Airport had agreed to use designated noise abatement flight procedures in accordance with the Fly Quiet Program. The Fly Quiet Program was implemented in an effort to further reduce the impacts of aircraft noise on the surrounding neighborhoods. The Fly Quiet Program is a voluntary program that encourages pilots and air traffic controllers to use designated nighttime preferential runways and flight tracks developed by the Chicago Department of Aviation (CDA) in cooperation with the O'Hare Noise Compatibility Commission (ONCC), the airlines, and the air traffic controllers. These preferred routes direct aircraft over less-populated areas, such as forest preserves, highways, as well as commercial and industrial areas. As part of the Fly Quiet Program, the CDA prepares a Quarterly Fly Quiet Report. This report is shared with CDA staff, the ONCC, the airlines, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the general public. The Fly Quiet Report contains detailed information regarding Fly Quiet Mode, runway use, flight operations, flight tracks, and noise complaints and 24-hour tracking of ground run-ups. The data presented in this report is compiled from the Airport Noise Management System (ANMS) and airport operation logs. FLY QUIET MODE The FAA considers nighttime hours as 10:00 p.m. - 7:00 a.m.1 It is the CDA’s goal for the Fly Quiet Program to occur during the entire nine-hour nighttime period of 10:00 p.m.
    [Show full text]