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Current Population Status and Distribution of Large Herbivores and Floodplain Birds of the Kafue Flats Wetlands, Zambia: Results of the 2015 Wet Season Aerial Survey

Technical Report · September 2015 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29983.76967

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Current Population Status and Distribution of Large Herbivores and Floodplain Birds of the Kafue Flats Wetlands, Zambia: Results of the

2015 Wet Season Aerial Survey

Griffin K. Shanungu

Chaka Kaumba

Dr. Richard Beilfuss

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SEPTEMBER 2015

AUTHOR DETAILS

Griffin Kaize Shanungu Senior Wildlife Ecologist, Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) & Program Coordinator, Zambia Crane and Wetland Conservation Programme, International Crane Foundation

Chaka Harold Kaumba Senior GIS officer, Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA)

Dr. Richard D. Beilfuss President and CEO, International Crane Foundation

Cover photo curtesy of Griffin K. Shanungu, 2010.

Citation: Shanungu G.K., Kaumba C.H. and Beilfuss R. 2015. Current Population Status and Distribution of Large Herbivores and Floodplain Birds of the Kafue Flats Wetlands, Zambia: Results of the 2015 Wet Season Aerial Survey. Zambia Wildlife Authority, Chilanga, Zambia.

NOTE: Views and opinions expressed in this report are of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of WWF, ZAWA and ICF.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) would like to thank the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF-Zambia) for financial support for this aerial survey. The International Crane Foundation (ICF) for providing technical and financial support as well as software for carrying out this survey. Furthermore, we thank the Flying Mission Zambia (FMZ) for the excellent flying services.

Diilwe Syamuntu, Wilfred Moonga and Chuma Simukonda are acknowledged for having significantly contributed to the success of this survey both in its design and execution.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In April 2015 we conducted 29 hours of intensive aerial surveys over the Kafue Flats. The survey was a partnership between the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), WWF-Zambia, and the International Crane Foundation. We flew 81 transects across the Kafue Flats at 150 kph, about 100 meters above the ground. The survey team counted and mapped all conspicuous wildlife on the flats, including large mammals and large waterbirds, and recorded all evidence of the human involvement in the park (including settlements, cultivation, fishing camps, and cattle posts, incidents of burning, logging, poaching, and charcoal production, and counts of all livestock, especially cattle - which number in the hundreds of thousands. These population estimates and distribution generated from the survey, along with detailed mapping of human impacts on this protected area, will be the basis for management of the Kafue Flats Wetlands for the coming years. Three important discoveries resulted from the survey. First, the Kafue Flats has very high global significance for waterbirds. We recorded the highest count of endangered Wattled Cranes in more than 30 years, with an estimated population of 2,962. We directly observed 920 Wattled Cranes on the floodplain, including one huge flock of more than 400 birds. This places the flats as the most important wetland for Wattled Cranes in the world, home to more than 25% of the estimated 8000 total population. The survey will be followed with ground visits to locations where we observed Wattled Crane breeding grounds and large flocks, to determine population structure, monitor nesting success, assess field conditions (hydrology, vegetation, grazing), and evaluate human threats over time. Endangered Grey Crowned Cranes also occur on the flats, but are less common. We also counted thousands of Spur-winged geese and African openbills, and recorded more than 40 species of wetland birds overall. Second, the population of Kafue Lechwe shows evidence of continued decline. Our estimated population of 28,711 is the lowest ever recorded for the Kafue Flats, down from historical high population counts that exceeded 100,000 in the 1970s. The Kafue Flats is the only place in the world where the endemic Kafue Lechwe occurs, a wetland-dependent antelope that grazes down vast areas of floodplain grasses as annual floodwaters recede. Lechwe are increasingly concentrated in Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon National Parks, having abandoned much of their historical range across the GMA. Other important large mammal species on the Kafue Flats include Plains Zebra (estimated population 580), Africa Buffalo (estimated population 897), Common Reedbuck (estimated population 234) and smaller numbers of Hippopotamus, Blue Wildebeest, Greater Kudu, and deep marsh-dwelling Sitatunga. Third, there is very substantial human encroachment into the Kafue Flats. Our survey showed that significant proportion of land on the edges of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NP boundaries and the surrounding Kafue Flats Game Management Area (GMA) have been heavily settled. Many villages/settlements are spread across the entire landscape. Cattle posts and fishing villages however are widespread on the floodplain and along watercourses. From the survey, we observed that the fishing villages are now expanding in size and number and are encroaching 4 | P a g e

onto the core habitat for Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes and the many species of waterbirds that depend on the Kafue Flats. While the Kafue Flats is a very important resource for human livelihoods, a balance is needed to ensure that animals move freely and have access to feeding and breeding grounds. Thus, we recommend extending the boundary of Lochinvar NP to join with Blue Lagoon NP and form a single, unified national park to better protect critical habitat for fauna and flora that occurs between these two parks. This will subsequently restrict access and movements of people and prevent settling and building of permanent fishing villages, ensuring that the remaining pristine habitat for the Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes, and important wetland flora and fauna is safeguarded for the future. To reverse the declining trends in animal population, we recommend improving resource protection of the Kafue Flats by equipping ZAWA personnel at Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs with adequate resources to enable effective protection of the Kafue flats wetlands, including invasive species and fire management. The spread of invasive species such as Mimosa pigra as well as encroachment of aggressive native shrubs such as Dichrostachys cinerea, for example, is affecting critical areas for Kafue Lechwe and cranes and has had significant negative impacts on their populations. Habitat restoration by way of controlling the spread of invasive and aggressive species and damaging fires is a matter of urgency. The implementation of environmental flows to improve water conditions on the Kafue Flats is also essential Lastly, we recommend repeating these aerial surveys bi-annually and to further conduct more research and monitoring of Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes and other species of conservation concern so as to ensure good management based on accurate counts and trends, and to conduct additional reconnaissance surveys at other times of the year, as funding permits, to assess seasonal movements related to water conditions, human activities, and other factors.

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 4 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 9 2.0 METHODOLOGY ...... 13 2.1 Survey Area ...... 13 2.2 Survey Design ...... 13 2.3 Fight Procedure and observations ...... 15 2.4 Data Analysis ...... 16 3.0 RESULTS ...... 17 3.1 General ...... 17 3.2 Herbivore population estimates and distribution ...... 17 3.3 Large floodplain bird population estimates and distribution ...... 18 3.4 Livestock and Human Activities ...... 20 3.5 Population trends of Kafue Lechwe, other large mammals, and Wattled Cranes ...... 28 4.0 DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 33 4.1 Factors contributing to the decline of the Kafue Lechwe population ...... 33 4.2 Population trends and threats to Wattled Cranes on the Kafue Flats ...... 37 REFERENCES ...... 43 APPENDICES ...... 45

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LIST OF APPENDICES

Appendix 1. Sampling statistics for each stratum for the April 2005 Aerial survey of the Kafue Flats ..... 45

Appendix 2. Calibration Data for FSO and RSO ...... 45

Appendix 3. Stratum 1 basic information and statistical analysis ...... 46

Appendix 4. Stratum 2 Basic information and statistical analysis ...... 47

Appendix 5. Stratum 3 Basic information and statistical analysis ...... 48

Appendix 6. Stratum 4 Basic information and statistical analysis ...... 50

Appendix 7. Stratum 5 Basic information and statistical analysis ...... 51

Appendix 8. Stratum 6 Basic information and statistical analysis ...... 52

Appendix 9. Transect Data ...... 54

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Summary of numbers sighted and estimated population for all mammals, birds and domestic livestock for recorded during the April 2015 aerial survey...... 19

Table 2. Kafue Lechwe population estimates from 1970 to 2015...... 28

Table 3. Population estimates and trends of large mammal on the Kafue Flats from 1990 to 2015...... 30

Table 4. Wattled Crane population estimates on the Kafue Flats: 1972 to 2015...... 31

Table 5. Hunting quota utilization on the Kafue Flats GMA – 2006 to 2012...... 37

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Map of the Kafue Flats showing the location of Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon National Parks and the Kafue Flats Game Management Area...... 10

Figure 2. Map of the survey area showing the location of the six strata and the completed survey tracks...... 14

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of endemic Kafue Lechwe in the Kafue flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey...... 21

Figure 4. Spatial distribution of Blue Wildebeest, Plains Zebra, African Buffalo, Greater Kudu, Sitatunga, and Common Reedbuck on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey...... 22

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey ...... 23

Figure 6. Spatial distribution of Spur-winged Goose on the Kafue Flats based on April 2015 aerial survey...... 24

Figure 7. Spatial distribution and relative abundance of African Openbill, Yellowbilled Stork, African White Pelican, Woollyneck Stork, Southern Ground Hornbill, and Secretarybird...... 25

Figure 8. Spatial distribution and abundance of cattle on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey...... 26

Figure 9. Spatial distribution of settlements/villages, fishing camps, cattle posts, Kafue Lechwe and areas of cultivation on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey...... 27

Figure 10. Population trend of Kafue Lechwe from 1970 to 2015...... 29

Figure 11: Population trends of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats from 1970 to 2015 from dry season (A) and Wet Season (B) surveys...... 32

Figure 12. Distribution of Kafue Lechwe in relation to human settlements, fishing villages and cattle posts on the Kafue Flats during the April 2015 survey...... 35

Figure 13. Kafue Lechwe and cattle distribution on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 survey...... 36

Figure 14. Proposed boundary extensions of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs to encompass critical habitat for lechwe and waterbirds and create a new National Park named “Kafue Flats National Park”. .. 41

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

The Kafue Flats of Zambia are a rich mosaic of lush floodplain grasslands and lagoons sustained by the seasonal floodwaters of the Kafue River. The Kafue Flats are protected by two National Parks (NPs) – Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon -- and the Kafue Flats Game Management Area (GMA), covering much of the Kafue Flats (Figure 1).

The Kafue Flats are important as they provide habitat to a wide range of mammal species including the endemic antelope species the Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis), Plains Zebra (Equus quagga crawshayi), Blue Wildebeest (Connochaetus taurinus) and Oribi (Ourebia ourebia) that utilize the floodplain grasslands of the area (Shanungu and Blaser, 2011, Simukonda et al, 2002). African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer), Bushbuck (Tragelaphus scriptus), Impala (Aepyceros melampus) and Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) utilize the termitaria and woodland zones of the Kafue Flats (Chansa and Kampamba 2009, Shanungu and Blaser, 2011). By far, the most important mammal species of the Kafue Flats is the endemic Kafue Lechwe - a semi-aquatic antelope living on the margin of shallow waters and feeding almost entirely on grasses in the water and on dry land. Much of the Kafue Lechwe population occurs in Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs or in the adjoining Kafue Flats GMA close to the park boundaries (Shanungu and Blaser, 2011). Additionally, the Kafue Flats are recognized as an Important Bird Area and provide habitat to one of the largest concentration of Vulnerable Wattled Cranes (Grus caranculatus) in Africa, as well as Endangered Grey Crowned Cranes (Balearica regulorum) and other large floodplain bird species of conservation concern (Leonard 2005, Beilfuss et al, 2007). For this reason, the site is designated as a RAMSAR Site, a wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention.

The Kafue Flats are also vital for the national economy of Zambia and provide sustenance for thousands of rural communities. The extensive floodplains of the Kafue Flats provide seasonal grazing grounds for thousands of cattle for the local pastoralist (Chabwela and Haller, 2010). A significant proportion of the beef supply for the country emanates from the Kafue flats. The shallow waters and lagoons of the Kafue Flats provide important spawning grounds for riverine fishes, and support an important fishery all year round for the local community and national markets (Chabwela and Haller, 2010). 9 | P a g e

Fish from the Kafue flats are transported as far as Lusaka and on the Copperbelt of Zambia (Chabwela and Mumba 1998). The rich soils of the Kafue Flats support the largest sugar plantations in Zambia. The Kafue Flats play a key role in the energy sector. Two hydropower dams have been constructed upstream and downstream of the Kafue Flats for the production of electricity for the country’s domestic use and export, with additional dams planned for the downstream Kafue Gorge.

Figure 1. Map of the Kafue Flats showing the location of Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon National Parks and the Kafue Flats Game Management Area.

The Kafue Flats offers exclusive ecotourism and trophy hunting opportunities. Other important ecosystem services provided by the Kafue flats include:

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1. Clean and abundant freshwater (surface water) for domestic use to local communities as well as urban areas including Kafue town and Lusaka City.

2. Flood storage and protection

3. Extensive woodland and grassland areas of the Kafue flats provide carbon sequestration to combat climate change (Blaser et al, 2014).

4. Papyrus, reeds, thatch grasses and other resources that can be sustainably harvested from the floodplains.

Sustainable management of the Kafue flats depends on accurate information about the ecological and socio-economic resources of this vast and productive ecosystem. This report describes the population status and distribution of large mammals, domestic cattle, and waterbird species of conservation concern based on results of the aerial survey conducted in April 2015.

The objectives of this report are to:

1. Assess the current status and distribution of large herbivores that include the endemic Kafue Lechwe, African Buffalo, Plains Zebra, Blue Wildebeest, Greater Kudu, Impala, Bushbuck, Reedbuck, Sitatunga and Oribi.

2. Assess the current population status and distribution of flagship waterbirds including Wattled Cranes, Grey Crowned Cranes, Saddlebilled Storks, Southern Ground Hornbill, Great White Pelicans, and others.

3. Assess the distribution of human activities including human settlements, villages, cattle posts and domestic cattle

4. Evaluate trends of large mammals especially the Kafue Lechwe based on aerial surveys conducted over the last forty five years.

5. Describe the implications of these findings for wildlife conservation and management in the Kafue Flats.

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Aerial surveys

Aerial surveys provide an important long-term reference for evaluating changes in wildlife status and distribution in open floodplains (Beilfuss et al, 2010). Aerial surveys for the Kafue Flats have been conducted since 1970 -- prior to the construction of the Kafue Gorge and Itezhi tezhi Dams. Past surveys have covered the entire Kafue floodplain as one ecosystem to provide estimates of large herbivores, with a particular focus on the endemic Kafue Lechwe. These aerial surveys have revealed a long-term declining trend of large mammals, especially the Kafue Lechwe. Prior to the present survey, the most recent aerial survey for the Kafue Flats was conducted in 2005 at the height of the dry season in October. The survey results suggested a Kafue Lechwe population of approximately 38,000, indicating a significant decline in the population of the species from pervious counts (Chansa and Kampamba, 2009). Previous surveys also indicated a more than 60% decline in Vulnerable Wattled Cranes over the past 30-40 years on the Kafue Flats (Beilfuss et al. 2002). This present survey aimed to further elucidate long- term trends in the population status and distribution of Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes, and other large mammal and bird species of conservation concern on the Kafue Flats, based on observations during the late rainy season in April 2015.

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2.0 METHODOLOGY

2.1 Survey Area

The total surveyed area was 5615 sq.km, between 26o44‘28‘‘E and 27o48‘52‘‘E, and 16o05‘21‘‘S and, 15o18‘35‘‘S, and encompassing the Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs as well as the Kafue Flats GMA. The altitude in the survey area ranges from 975 to 1000 m.a.s.l. The Kafue Flats experiences three distinct seasons: (1) hot and wet from November to April, with an annual rainfall of 710mm (Blaser 2013); (2) cold and dry from May to August; (3) hot and dry from September to October.

The vast floodplains are annually inundated by overbank flooding from the Kafue River, which drains a 154,000 km2 catchment area, with additional contributions from ephemeral tributaries of the flats and local rainfall. The vegetation is heavily influenced by the extent and duration of floodplain inundation, and comprises of deep-water swamp, floodplain grassland, termitaria, and woodland vegetation communities (Douthwaite and Van LaVieren, 1978, Blaser 2013).

2.2 Survey Design

The survey procedure was based on a well-established standardized wildlife aerial survey approach as described by Norton-Griffiths 1978. This approach follows the techniques used in previous surveys (Chansa and Kampamba, 2005, Beilfuss et al 2002, and references therein), to ensure that the results of the present survey are comparable with past results. The survey area was divided into six (6) different strata (Figure 2) designed to reflect differences in the density of Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes, and other species. The strata were delineated based on an aerial reconnaissance survey conducted prior to full survey. Strata one, four and six covered the Kafue Flats GMA, where lechwe and most other waterbirds species occur in low densities and extensive human settlements and activities occur. Stratum three encompassed the core wildlife zone of the Kafue flats that included floodplain grassland areas of the Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs and the middle section of the Kafue Flats GMA. Strata two and five were located in the woodland zones of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs respectively. These two strata were designed to sample the woodland mammal species of the two national parks.

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The area of each stratum was calculated using the software ArcGIS 10.3 for Desktop (ESRI, 2014). Parallel transect lines, oriented North-South, were placed in each of the strata and were designed to cut the main physical feature – the Kafue River – at right angles. The spacing for the transect lines in strata two, three and five was placed at 2km apart to give a relatively high sampling intensity of 20%, 15% and 21% respectively with a planned combined strip width of 400m. Transect lines in stratum one, four and six were placed 4km apart to give a lower sampling intensity of 11%, 14% and 10% respectively with a planned combined strip width of 400m.

The stratum and transect lines designed in ArcGIS 10.3 were transferred into a PC-based data capture software – ArcPAD 10.2 (ESRI, 2011) as well as into a hand held Global Positioning System (GPS) prior to flying each stratum. The ArcPAD was used for navigation and data capture and the handheld GPS was primarily used for navigation.

Figure 2. Map of the survey area showing the location of the six strata and the completed survey tracks. Notice that the base for all operations was from Chilongolo Airstrip in Makeni, Lusaka.

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2.3 Fight Procedure and observations

A high-winged Cessna 206 aircraft, fitted with a radar altimeter and a Garmin GPS receiver, was used for the aerial survey. The survey team included the pilot (Timothy Kerh, Flying Mission Zambia), front seat observer and data recorder (Richard Beilfuss, International Crane Foundation), and two back seat observers: Diilwe Syamuntu (Left seat) and Wilfred Moonga (Right seat). A supplemental observer and data recorder (Chaka Kaumba) sat at the back of the aircraft. All crew members communicated with each other through the aircraft’s intercom. All crew members had significant experience observing and counting during aerial surveys except for Diilwe Syamuntu, who nonetheless had previous extensive experience conducting ground surveys of mammal and waterbirds in Lochinvar NP.

Calibration methodology – based on Norton-Griffiths (1978) – was done to allow for a targeted 200m strip width on each side of the aircraft when flown at 300 feet above ground level (agl). Two fixed bars (fishing rods) were attached with custom brackets to each wing strut and the distance between the rods was adjusted for each observer to allow for the 200m strip width at the flight height of 300 feet agl. The aircraft was flown at approximately 150km/hour. The Chilongolo Airstrip in Makeni, Lusaka was used as base for all operations.

During the survey, all animals seen were called out by the observers to the recorder who entered the data directly into ArcPad on a laptop. This system ensured real-time data capture of all observations as well as the capture of the track log data at 2-second intervals. The actual height of the aircraft was recorded onto data sheets by the supplemental observer every 30 seconds while flying along transects. The mean height above ground level for each transect was then calculated. A total of seven survey sessions were flown over four days during the period 23rd April – 26th April 2015, which represents the end of the wet season and the annual peak level of flooding across the Kafue Flats. The total survey flight time was 29.1 hours, including four hours reconnaissance survey. Figure 2 shows the complete survey transects. The survey team counted all large mammal species and nine large bird species of conservation concern (i.e., Wattled Cranes, Grey Crowned Cranes, Great White Pelicans, Saddlebilled Storks, African Openbills, Yellowbilled Storks, Woolynecked Storks, Southern Ground Hornbills, and Secretarybirds) that were observed within the transect strips. Although the survey was primarily designed to estimate

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numbers of large mammals and large birds, the observers also counted and mapped the location of all domestic livestock (primarily cattle, but also goats and pigs), settlements, fisher camps, and cattle posts observed, as well as evidence of active logging, hunting, and burning.

2.4 Data Analysis

Population estimates and confidence intervals for each stratum were calculated in an Excel spreadsheet based on Jolly’s (II) 1969 method for unequal-sized sampling units (Norton-Griffiths 1978). Individual transect length and area were calculated using ArcGIS software. The value of

Student’s t used to calculate the confidence interval of a population estimate was tn‐1 for P=0.05, where n = number of transects in the stratum. Population estimates for the entire study area were calculated as the sum of the estimates for the individual strata within the study area. The confidence interval for population estimate of each of the species was calculated as: t x square root of (Sum of Variances for individual strata) where: t was taken as 2.0 following Norton- Griffiths (1978)

Data from the survey that were captured in ArcPAD 10.2 were transferred into ArcGIS 10.3 and saved as shape files projected both as points and lines. This data included: name of animal species or human activity; number of each animal species or activity per observation; and GPS position for each observation. Spatial distribution of each wild animal species, as well as livestock, fishing camps, settlements, and cultivated areas were mapped using ArcGIS 10.3 across the entire survey area.

To evaluate population trends for Kafue Lechwe, other large herbivores, and Wattled Cranes, a literature search was done to collect data on population estimates from the 1970s to date. The data was analyzed by linear and quadratic regression models. First, a linear regression was performed with the population estimates taken as the dependent variables and the time as the independent variable. The regression analysis was then repeated by adding the quadratic fit. Models were developed for the relationship between population and time and summarized in the equation of a straight line and quadratic equation as appropriate. The quadratic fit was favored over the linear fit if the quadratic fit had a lower P value than that of the linear fit. Statistics were performed using the statistical program PAST 2.17 (2012). Graphs where produced using Microsoft EXCEL (Microsoft, 2013). 16 | P a g e

3.0 RESULTS

3.1 General

The overall population estimate for each large herbivore and large floodplain bird observed in the survey area is given in Table 1, including actual numbers counted within the survey transects, the statistically estimated population, and the 95% confidence limits for each of the large mammal and bird species. A detailed breakdown of the survey statistics, calibration data, and estimates of each stratum is given in Appendix 1 to 8.

Figures 3 to 7 show the spatial distribution of Kafue Lechwe, all other large herbivores observed, Wattled Cranes, Spur-winged Geese, and all other large floodplain birds observed, respectively. The location of the dots on each map indicates the approximate location where a species was observed, and the size of each dot indicates the relative size of the group or flock observed at that location. Figure 8 shows the spatial distribution of cattle across the Kafue Flats, and Figure 9 shows the distribution of human settlements, fishing villages, cattle posts, and cultivated areas.

3.2 Herbivore population estimates and distribution

The Kafue Lechwe population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 28,711. The majority of the lechwe population (70%) was located on the northern banks of the Kafue flats in and around Blue Lagoon NP, with the remaining population (30%) occurring in the southern banks around Lochinvar NP (Figure 3). Because Kafue Lechwe occur primarily on the open floodplain they are easily detected, but they are aggregated in large, concentrated herds that are very challenging to enumerate accurately from a high-speed aircraft.

The Africa Buffalo population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 897. The largest herd was sighted in the southern edges of Lochinvar NP near the Gwisho Hotsprings (Figure 4). A smaller herd occurred on the edge of the grassland and woodland zone in the Blue Lagoon NP (Figure 4). African Buffalo that occur in the woodland zone can be difficult to detect accurately, and were likely undercounted.

The population of Plains Zebra in the survey area of the Kafue Flats was estimated at 580. One herd was sighted in the Lochinvar NP during the survey. However, larger herds were sighted in the termitaria and floodplain zones of the Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs outside the transects, 17 | P a g e

and frequently observed from the ground as well, and were not included in the analysis suggesting that the population of the Plains Zebra is much larger than the current estimates.

Common Reedbuck and Sitatunga populations in the survey area are estimated at 235 and 76, respectively. Sitatungas were mostly confined to reeds and swamps along the Kafue River and the Lubwato Lagoon (Figure 4). Reedbucks were more evenly distributed across Blue Lagoon NP. Both species can be difficult to detect, especially Sitatunga which occur (and hide) in deep marshes and were almost certainly undercounted.

Other ungulates recorded during the survey for which sample sizes were too low to calculate population estimates included Common Waterbuck (1), Greater Kudu (1), Blue Wildebeest (15), Oribi (2), and Hippopotamus (46). The Common Waterbuck observation is noteworthy as the species was not previously known to occur on the Kafue Flats.

3.3 Large floodplain bird population estimates and distribution

The Vulnerable Wattled Crane population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 2,962. During the survey, a total of 920 Wattled Cranes were observed, including 433 within the sample strips (used for the population estimate) and an additional 487 outside of the sample strips (used to more carefully map the species distribution). One large flock of more than 400 birds was observed, located partially within the survey strata. Wattled Cranes showed an even distribution in stratum 3 of the survey area – the vast floodplains west and east of Lochinvar NP and the large expanse of floodplains in the Game Management Area and the southern half of Blue Lagoon NP (Figure 5). The majority of the cranes observed occurred on the northern banks of the Kafue Flats accounting about 80% of the entire Wattled Crane population, whereas the southern banks of the Kafue flats around Lochinvar NP had 20% of the entire Wattled Crane population. Adult Wattled Cranes are relatively easy to detect when upright and in flight, but are easily missed when occurring on nests and large flocks are difficult to count accurately from aircraft. Chicks are very difficult to detect and almost certainly undercounted.

The Endangered Grey Crowned Crane population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 116. A total of 20 birds were observed during the survey, all in Lochinvar NP. The Spur-winged Geese population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 11,561.

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Population estimates were also generated for African Openbill (5,993), Great White Pelican (949), and Yellowbilled Stork (297). Other large birds of note observed during the survey included Ground Hornbill (3 counted), Woolynecked Stork (8), and Secretarybird (2). Spur- winged Geese and African Openbill showed similar distribution patterns to Wattled Cranes (Figures 6 and 7, respectively). These were mainly distributed in stratum 3 of the survey area, with most occurring in the GMA both on the southern and northern banks of the Kafue River and the vast floodplain areas. White Pelicans were mainly distributed in the floodplains of the north- eastern half of Lochinvar NP and on the GMA (Figure 7). The spatial distribution of other large birds observed in the survey area is shown in Figure 7.

Table 1. Summary of numbers sighted and estimated population for all mammals, birds and domestic livestock for recorded during the April 2015 aerial survey.

Number 95% confidence limits Species sighted Population Estimate Large Mammals Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis) 4205 28711 9222 African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) 187 897 - Common Reedbuck (Redunca arundinum) 36 235 457 Sitatunga (Tragelaphus spekei) 9 76 - Oribi (Ourebia ourebi) 2 - Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepticeros) 1 - Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibious) 46 - - Plains Zebra (Equus quagga crawshayi) 85 580 - Common Waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymnus) 1 - - Large Birds Wattled Crane (Grus caranculatus) 431 2962 2275 Grey Crowned Cranes (Balearica regulorum) 20 116 187 Spur winged Goose (Plectropterus gambensis) 219 11575 3018 African Openbill (Anastomus lamelligerus) 874 5993 1945 Yellowbilled Stork (Mycteria ibis) 43 297 723 Southern Ground Hornbill (Bucorvus - leadbeateri) 3 Great White Pelican (Pelecanus onocrotalus) 139 949 1402 Woolynecked Stork (Ciconia episcopus) 8 - Secretarybird (Sagittarius serpentarius) 2 - Livestock Cattle 10394 92942 3653

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3.4 Livestock and Human Activities

The cattle population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 92,942 (Table 1). Cattle are widely distributed across the GMA with few observed in the Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs (Figure 8). Given that the survey occurred during the wet season when much of the Kafue Flats is flooded, fewer herds were observed in the floodplain grasslands zone of the survey area and most occurred on higher ground in the termitaria and woodland zones of the survey area.

Human activities recorded during the survey included cattle posts (cattle enclosures), fishing camps (temporary settlements), cultivated areas, and permanent settlements (villages). Many houses were observed with metal roofs suggesting that these are permanently settled. One school was observed. The spatial distribution of these human activities is shown in Figure 9. Much of the survey area – with the notable exception of the two national parks – reflects extensive human activity, with fishing and pastoralism being the main land use type observed.

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Figure 3. Spatial distribution of endemic Kafue Lechwe in the Kafue flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey. Relative abundance of the lechwe population is denoted by the size of the dot.

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Figure 4. Spatial distribution of Blue Wildebeest, Plains Zebra, African Buffalo, Greater Kudu, Sitatunga, and Common Reedbuck on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey. Different animal species are denoted by different color of the dots, and the relative abundance of each mammal by the size of the dots. 22 | P a g e

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey. Abundance of the Wattled Cranes are denoted by the size of the dots, reflecting pairs (1-2), family groups (3), and small (4-8), medium (9-20), and large flocks (>20). 23 | P a g e

Figure 6. Spatial distribution of Spur-winged Goose on the Kafue Flats based on April 2015 aerial survey. Spur-winged Goose abundance is indicated by the size of the dots.

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Figure 7. Spatial distribution and relative abundance of African Openbill, Yellowbilled Stork, African White Pelican, Woollyneck Stork, Southern Ground Hornbill, and Secretarybird. Spatial distribution is based on the April, 2015 aerial survey and the relative abundance of each species. 25 | P a g e

Figure 8. Spatial distribution and abundance of cattle on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey. 26 | P a g e

Figure 9. Spatial distribution of settlements/villages, fishing camps, cattle posts, Kafue Lechwe and areas of cultivation on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey. 27 | P a g e

3.5 Population trends of Kafue Lechwe, other large mammals, and Wattled Cranes

Kafue Lechwe

The April 2015 survey resulted in the lowest population estimate ever recorded for the Kafue Lechwe (28,711) – reflecting a significant decline relative to previous surveys. Table 2 shows a summary of the lechwe population estimates from 1970 to the present survey. From 1970-1975 (reflecting the period immediately prior to construction of Itezhi-tezhi Dam upstream of the Kafue Flats), repeat annual surveys suggested that the population of Kafue Lechwe was fluctuating from 80,774 to 109,612 (Bell et al, 1973, Osborne et al, 1975). Subsequent surveys from the early 1980s to mid-2000s suggested much reduced numbers, with the estimated population fluctuating from as low as 37,120 to 68,940. In the late 2000s, consensus was reached that the population had stabilized at approximately 40,000 across the Kafue Flats (Chansa and Kampamba 2009), with Blue Lagoon and the vast floodplains on the North bank holding more than 80% of the entire Kafue Lechwe population. However, the present survey results indicate that the population may have further declined below this level. Figure 10 shows the declining trend of the population over time, with an estimated population loss of 1,517 per annum. Table 2. Kafue Lechwe population estimates from 1970 to 2015.

Year Population estimate Reference Period before and after Dam Construction. 1970 94,075 Bell et al. 1973 Pre- construction 1971 93,215 Bell, et al. 1973 Pre- construction 1972 93,158 Bell et al. 1973 Pre- construction 1973 109,612 Osborne et al. 1973 Pre- construction 1975 80,774 Osborne et al. 1975 Pre- construction 1981 45,867 Howard et al. 1983 Post construction 1982 41,345 Howard, et al. 1983 Post construction 1983 41,155 Howard et al. 1983 Post construction 1987 50,715 Howard, et al. 1987 Post construction 1988 65,018 Howard, et al. 1988 Post construction 1989 47,145 Jeffrey, et al. 1988 Post construction 1990 44,538 Jeffrey, et al. 1990 Post construction 1991 68,872 Jeffrey, et al. 1991 Post construction 1993 64,940 Kapungwe, 1993 Post construction 1994 50,000 Jeffrey, 1994 Post construction 1995 40,000 Tembo, 1995 Post construction 1998 37,120 Kampamba, et al. 1998 Post construction

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Year Population Reference Period before and Estimate after Dam Construction. 1999 45,000 Kampamba et al., 1999 Post construction 2002 42,000 Kamweneshe, Beilfuss and Simukonda, 2002 Post construction 2005 38,448 Chansa & Kampamba, 2009 Post construction 2015 28,711 Present survey Post construction

120,000

y = 38.35x2 - 154108x + 2E+08 100,000 R² = 0.7099

80,000

60,000

40,000 Population estimates Population

20,000

0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 YEAR

Figure 10. Population trend of Kafue Lechwe from 1970 to 2015. The solid line shows a significant declining trend in population from 1970 to 2015 (P<0.05). Source (Kamweneshe et al, 2015; Chansa and Kampamba 2009; this survey).

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Other large mammals

The African Buffalo, Hippopotamus, and Common Reedbuck populations on the Kafue Flats show an increasing trend (Table 4). African Buffalo numbers are especially encouraging, with the highest estimate ever recorded. Most of the Buffalo population occurs on the southern banks of the Kafue River in Lochinvar NP. Anecdotal reports suggest that the Buffalo population has mostly disappeared from Blue Lagoon NP and the northern bank floodplains, suggesting that their range may be restricted.

Blue Wildebeest’s population has reduced from a reported population of over 1000 in the 1970s (Ellenbroek, 1989) to less than 100 today. The Plains Zebra shows a significant decreasing trend over time, although anecdotal evidence from ground surveys suggests that the population may have stabilized at 800 – 1500 individuals in the Kafue Flats.

The population trends of Greater Kudu, Sitatunga, and other less conspicuous mammals are difficult to determine from aerial survey reports due to insufficient data. Field Observations indicate frequent sightings of Greater Kudu in the Lochinvar NP and Blue Lagoon NP. No impalas where observed during the survey but reports from the resident ecologist at Lochinvar NP indicate a population of more than 100 individuals, suggesting an increase in the population from the early 1990s.

Table 3. Population estimates and trends of large mammal on the Kafue Flats from 1990 to 2015.

Species 1990 1999 2002 2005 2015 Population Trend

Buffalo 116 188 275 897 Increasing

Hippopotamus >80 314 Increasing

Greater Kudu 30-100 7 Uncertain

Oribi >200 35 14 Decreasing

Reedbuck >10 20 234 Increasing

Sitatunga 76 Uncertain

Blue Wildebeest 148 600 71 Decreasing

Plains Zebra 2168 1470 580 Decreasing

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Wattled Cranes

Table 4 below shows a summary of the wet and dry season population estimates of Wattled Crane from the early 1970s to date. For the trend analysis, we separated the wet and dry season results and carried out a regression analysis separately to avoid seasonal bias. Both the wet and dry season estimates showed no statistically significant linear trends from the 1970s to date. However, the data indicates that the population of the Wattled Cranes fluctuated between 1600 – 3000 from the early 1970s to the late 1980s. Drastic declines in the populations occurred between the late 1980s to the early 2000s with a population decline from 3273 in 1989 to 967 in 2002 as shown in table 4 and figure 11A and B below. The population of the Wattled Crane from the early 2000s until the present survey has shown an increase in the populations although few surveys were conducted on the Kafue flats from the early 2000s to 2015 and thus very difficult to account for the population increase in that period.

Table 4. Wattled Crane population estimates on the Kafue Flats: 1972 to 2015.

Year Month Estimate Source 1972 June 1,601 Douthwaite,1974c 1972 November 2,932 Douthwaite,1974c 1973 May 3,085 Douthwaite, 1974c 1973 August 2,336 Douthwaite, 1974c 1982 May 3,282 Howard and Aspinwall, 1984 1987 November 2,508 Howard, 1989 1988 May/June 2,724 Malambo, 1990 in Dodman, 1996 1989 August 3,273 Malambo, 1990 in Dodman, 1996 1993 January 1,373 Dodman, 1996 1993 May 809 Jeffery et al., 1993 1993 July 1,268 Dodman, 1996 2001 November 967 Kamweneshe and Beilfuss, 2002a 2005 October 2,454 Chansa 2005. 2015 April 2,962 This survey

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(A) Dry Season Survey (B) Wet Season Survey 2 3500 y = -30.664x + 63225 y = 1.7341x - 6911.6x + 7E+06 3500 R² = 0.2138 R² = 0.1538 3000 3000

2500 2500

2000 2000

1500 1500

1000 1000

500 500

0 0 WattledCrane Populationestimates 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Year

Figure 11: Population trends of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats from 1970 to 2015 from dry season (A) and Wet Season (B) surveys. Dotted line indicates statistically insignificant trend (p>0.05). Data source: Kamweneshe et al, 2002; Chansa 2005 and this survey).

The population of the Wattled Crane is linked to the fluctuations of water level and availability of food resources such tubers of Eleocharis spp. More studies are therefore required to ascertain the interactions of the crane population to hydrology, vegetation and the abundance of large grazing of herbivores on the Kafue Flats.

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4.0 DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The Kafue Lechwe population movement and distribution is mainly influenced by hydrology and food availability (Blaser, 2013). The majority of the lechwe population (70%) occurs north of the Kafue River, in the floodplains of Blue Lagoon NP and the adjacent GMA, with the remaining 30% located in or near Lochinvar NP, close to Chunga Lagoon. These findings mirror Chansa and Kampamba (2009), whose 2005 dry season survey showed that 86% of the Kafue Lechwe population was found north of the Kafue River. Similarly, 80% of the Wattled Crane population occurs on the northern floodplain near the Blue Lagoon NP and adjacent GMA, with only 20% in Lochinvar and its surrounding GMA.

These observations certainly highlight the importance of the northern floodplain in general, and Blue Lagoon NP specifically, for the conservation of these two species of international importance. However, one reason for the different in distribution could be the presence of invasive Mimosa pigra shrubs (discussed further below). Mimosa shrubs are far more extensive in Lochinvar NP than Blue Lagoon NP, occupying substantial areas of important flood-recession habitat along the edge of Chunga lagoon that would otherwise support good numbers of Kafue Lechwe and Wattled Cranes. Lochinvar NP, which houses the ZAWA headquarters for the two national parks, receives much more management attention than Blue Lagoon NP and the northern floodplains. These results suggest that on the one hand, more management action is needed to control mimosa shrubs in Lochinvar NP, while on the other hand more management attention in general is needed on the Blue Lagoon side to safeguard the more substantial populations of the lechwe and cranes.

4.1 Factors contributing to the decline of the Kafue Lechwe population

There are a number of factors that are attributed to the decline in the lechwe population. Some of the factors are summarized below:

Reduced suitable habitat – encroachment of native shrubs and invasive species.

The Kafue Flats have experienced significant encroachment of shrubs especially in the termitaria and floodplain grasslands over last four decades (Blaser, 2013, Shanungu 2013, Berhanu, 2006, Thomas, 2006). These changes are attributed to the changes in the flooding regime brought about 33 | P a g e

by the construction of hydroelectric dams both at Itezhi-tezhi and Kafue gorge in the 1970s (Blaser, 2013, Mumba, 2004). The main encroachers are the native shrub Dichrostachys cinerea and the invasive shrub Mimosa pigra. Blaser (2013) indicates that the encroachment of these shrubs reduced suitable grazing areas for the Kafue Lechwe, adversely affecting their food supply and possibly limiting the population numbers and distribution of the species. Although control programs have been undertaken, these shrubs are still spreading across the Kafue flats, raising concerns about further impact to lechwe habitat availability (Shanungu, 2013).

Disease and nutritional stress

Several diseases in lechwe have been reported (Stafford 1991, Siamudaala et al, 2003, Munyeme et at, 2010) with bovine tuberculosis being the main disease affecting the Kafue Lechwe population and potentially limiting the population growth rate (Stafford, 1991). Recent investigations on the Kafue Flats have not revealed the extent to which bovine T.B affects the population. It was reported that close to 20% of the Kafue Lechwe population was killed by bovine T.B each year in the early 1970s (Gallagher et al 1972), although overall population numbers were much higher than at present. Massive lechwe die-offs have been observed in recent years, the worst being in 2008 due to dire nutritional stress and susceptibility to diseases (Shanungu, 2008). More studies need to be undertaken to determine what proportions of the total mortality of lechwe can be accounted for from disease and die-offs due to nutritional stress.

Illegal off-take – Poaching

A study by Kapungwe (1993) showed that poaching was the major factor responsible for the decline of the Kafue Lechwe population. The proximity of human settlements to large herds of Kafue Lechwe makes the lechwe vulnerable to poaching. Further work is needed to ascertain the vulnerability of Kafue Lechwe population in relation to the close proximity to human settlements, cattle posts and fishing villages (see Figure 12), and determine the current poaching levels in this area. Anecdotal reports suggest that poaching here has become sophisticated with the use of motor bikes and oxcarts and thus often goes undetected. In instances where poachers have been apprehended, some have been found with more than 15 carcasses of Kafue Lechwe. Based on our latest survey results, we estimate a net loss of 1,517 Kafue Lechwe per annum in

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recent years. Although poaching likely does not account for all the Kafue Lechwe mortality, it is undoubtedly a significant contributor to its annual net loss.

Figure 12. Distribution of Kafue Lechwe in relation to human settlements, fishing villages and cattle posts on the Kafue Flats during the April 2015 survey.

Increased human presence on the Kafue flats not only increases the likelihood of illegal hunting of lechwe to occur and go undetected but also results in the encroachment of the their preferred habitat. The increase of people on the flats has also resulted in frequent and destructive fires that not only impact on the lechwe but also on nesting and breeding sites for Wattled Crane and other waterbirds.

Competition with cattle

In this present study, a total of 92,426 cattle were estimated in the survey areas, and as many as 250,000 cattle may occur across the entire Kafue Flats. The increasing number of cattle may 35 | P a g e

present a direct competition for food resources and thus limit the food supply for the lechwe. In addition, the spatial distribution of Kafue Lechwe could be limited by the presence of cattle (Figure 15) due to presence of humans that accompany the cattle onto the grazing areas. Although this aspect needs further investigation, cattle increase could have a negative effect on the Kafue Lechwe population.

Figure 12. Kafue Lechwe and cattle distribution on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 survey.

Large hunting quotas

Despite a declining population trend of lechwe, high hunting quotas have been issued each year. An analysis of the hunting quotas utilized from 2006 to 2012, indicates an average of 598 Kafue Lechwe hunted per annum on quota (Table 5). This number is almost 40% of the estimated net loss of 1517 of Kafue Lechwe per year. Given that the lechwe are in decline, this number could

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be unsustainable and thus hunting quotas require revision to take into account the population decline of the lechwe.

Kafue Flats - North and South Bank GMA Hunting Analysis - 2006 – 2012 Year Resident Non resident Total Nr. Hunted 2006 580 31 611 2007 484 61 545 2008 605 52 657 2009 879 29 908 2010 217 28 245 2011 644 49 693 2012 482 44 526 TOTAL 3891 312 4185 Table 5. Hunting quota utilization on the Kafue Flats GMA – 2006 to 2012.

Future analysis of the population dynamics of the lechwe is needed. For example, studies needed to be undertaken in order to ascertain the current lechwe recruitment.

4.2 Population trends and threats to Wattled Cranes on the Kafue Flats

The current survey results places the Kafue Flats as the most important wetland for Wattled Cranes, home to more than 25% of the estimate 8000 Wattled Cranes in Africa (Beilfuss et al. 2007). Combined with the Liuwa Plain (with an estimated 1750 Wattled Cranes) and Bangweulu Swamps (estimated 1200 individuals), Zambia is the most important place in the world for Wattled Crane conservation.

The population of Wattled Cranes on the Kafue Flats has fluctuated widely since surveys were first undertaken in the 1970s. Wattled Crane estimates exceeded 3000 during the 1970s, decreased to fewer than 2000 in the 1990s, then dropped again to around 1000 in the early 2000s, until our present survey estimate placed the population back at close to 3000. Our latest survey certainly seems encouraging. However, it is unclear whether this latest survey reflects a big recovery of the species in the past decade, or whether the limitations of the statistical sample survey methodology when applied to species such as Wattled Cranes that form large flocks might result in significant over or under counting depending on whether or not those large flocks occur within the survey strata. Another possibility is that numbers of Wattled Cranes are increasing on the Kafue Flats due to loss of habitat elsewhere in the region. Regardless, Wattled 37 | P a g e

Cranes, as with the Kafue Lechwe, face serious conservation challenges that must be addressed to protect the species for the long-term. Challenges include the following:

a) Human disturbance The presence of numerous fishing camps in the GMAs bordering the Lochinvar NP and Blue Lagoon NP pose a threat to the nesting and roosting sites for cranes. In the dry season, these areas are prone to fire and this could have impacts on the food availability for cranes. Furthermore, fires could potentially kill flightless chicks.

b) Illegal egg collection Most of the nest sites for Wattled Crane occur near large human settlement areas especially near fishing camps. It is highly likely that the fisher folks collect eggs from these nests.

c) Encroachment of shrubs. The encroachment of shrubs on the floodplain grasslands of the Kafue Flats is degrading key habitats for Wattled Cranes, as well as Endangered Grey Crowned Cranes and other waterbirds. Additionally, the spread of Mimosa pigra is likely to impact negatively on the nesting sites for Wattled Crane, especially in the Lochinvar NP where it is has already spread to nesting areas. In Blue Lagoon NP, the levels of infestation are not yet as severe but require urgent attention to prevent further expansion.

4.3 Management Recommendations

More surveys are needed on the Kafue Flats on a regular basis. This will ensure up to date information that will be useful for management decision of the flats. To address some of the challenges facing the Kafue Flats, management recommendations are given below for urgent consideration:

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Support to Kafue Flats Area Management Unit

There is a strong need to increase support to the Kafue Flats Area Management Unit to effectively deal with the high levels of poaching on both the south and north banks of the Kafue River. To deal with the high levels of poaching, more resource protection needs to be recruited and deployed on the Flats to enhance anti-poaching activities and curb illegal activities. In addition, there is need to improve the levels of equipment such as boats, quadbikes and vehicles that will enable timely response to poaching and illegal activities in this area. This will reduce the levels of poaching, illegal egg harvesting of birds and thus safeguard the population of wildlife on the flats.

Mimosa pigra management and habitat restoration

Mimosa pigra presents a large threat to the habitat on the Kafue flats. Following up on previous projects by the UNEP/GEF funded “Removing Barriers to Invasive Species Management in Africa” project is highly recommended. The project was implemented at Lochinvar from 2007 to 2010 and a number of recommend control interventions were recommended (Shanungu, 2009). Biocontrol is an additional control measure that has not been implemented yet but could have a big positive impact at Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NP, especially if integrated with other control measures such as physical and chemical control as funds become available.

Water management

Some of the underlying causes to changes on the Kafue Flats has been water management and dam operations. It is a worthwhile venture to support the works by World Wide for Nature (WWF-Zambia)’s efforts to advocate for integrated flows of the Kafue River.

Increase tourism potential of the park.

The number of tourists visiting the two national parks on the Kafue flats have declined over the decades. Given that the tourism in the two national parks has declined, this has prompted contradictory uses of the park such as allowing access for fish traders to enter and trade fish and other commodities within the Lochinvar and the Blue Lagoon NPs.

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It is postulated that national parks that have a high tourist visitor rate receive better protection. It is therefore recommended that the tourism in the two national parks be revamped. Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon still have large potential for tourism development due to their proximity to Lusaka and other places. Developing the tourism in these parks will allow for better management of the resources therein. Another aspect for consideration is the increasing of the species spectrum of the parks such as translocation of large herbivores that used to occur there but are now locally extinct such as: Sable, Eland, Warthog, Puku, Waterbuck and many others. Consideration should also be given to increasing the Wildebeest population which is small and declining. Not only would these measures increase the tourism potential of the parks, it will reduce the rate of encroachment of shrub species.

Limit or suspend hunting for the Kafue Lechwe

The current average of 598 lechwe hunted every year is high and probably unsustainable and there is a need to suspend or limit the numbers of lechwe hunted every year given that the population of lechwe is in decline.

Extend park boundaries to encompass the critical habitat for lechwe and waterbirds:

The park boundaries for Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs capture a very small proportion of the range for waterbirds and lechwe. As is seen on the maps presented in this report, the area between the Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon encompassed by stratum 3 hold the critical habitat for the waterbirds and the lechwe. This area is characterized by vast floodplains that are still unoccupied with invasive plants and encroaching shrubs. Concomitantly, this area is also occupied by fishing villages and cattle posts. However, it is recommended that ZAWA management seeks to increase the protection status of this critical habitat for lechwe and waterbirds by extending the park boundaries of the two parks so that they join and become one national park to be aptly named the “Kafue Flats National Park” as shown in Figure 12. Joining the two national parks will ensure better protection of the critical habitat and limit the growing population of fishing villages and cattle.

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Figure 13. Proposed boundary extensions of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs to encompass critical habitat for lechwe and waterbirds and create a new National Park named “Kafue Flats National Park”.

Species Conservation Strategy and Action Plan for Kafue Lechwe

The Kafue Lechwe is an endemic mammal species to Zambia and is under critical threats from various factors. The population has been declining for over three decades now and this year’s counts are the lowest ever recorded. There is thus, a need to have a clear management intervention and focus specifically aimed at conserving the Kafue Lechwe and its habitat. This measure is supported by the Species Survival Commission (SSC) of International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The development of the species conservation strategy within the framework of the IUCN would provide for the following:

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• To provide a baseline record against which to measure change; • To expand on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species; • To provide scientifically-based recommendations for those who can promote and support species conservation action for the Kafue Lechwe; • To provide a common framework and focus for a wide range of players within the Kafue Flats wetlands; • To provide a convenient and accessible conservation resource; • To establish priorities for the Kafue Lechwe conservation; and • To aid fundraising.

Possible listing of the Kafue Flats Wetlands under the Ramsar Montreaux Record

The Montreux Record (MR) is a register of Ramsar Sites where changes in ecological character have occurred, are occurring, or are likely to occur as a result of technological developments or other human interference. It was established by Recommendation 4.8 (1990) to identify priority sites for positive national and international conservation attention. Including the Kafue Flats Wetlands under the Montreux record will raise international profile of the challenges on the Kafue Flats and thus assist in rapid response to some of the challenges facing the Kafue Flats.

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REFERENCES

Beilfuss, D.R., Dodman T. and Urban K.E. (2007). The Status of Cranes in Africa in 2005. Ostrich 2007, 78(2).

Beilfuss, D.R., Bento, M.C., Haldane, M. and Ribaue, M. (2010). Status and distribution of large herbivores in the Marromeu Complex of the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Technical Report to World Wide for Nature (WWF) Mozambique.

Bell, R.H.V., Grimsdell, J.J. R., van Lavieren, L.P. and Sayer, J.A. 1978 Census of Kafue Flats by aerial stratified sampling. E.Afr. Wildl. J., 11:55-74

Blaser, J. W 2013. Impact of woody encroachment on soil-plant-herbivore interactions in the Kafue Flats floodplain ecosystem. PhD dissertation. Diss. ETH No. 21068. Zurich, Switzerland.

Blaser, J. W., Shanungu, G.K., Edwards, J. P. & Olde Venterink, H. (2014) Woody encroachment reduces nutrient limitation and promotes soil carbon sequestration. Ecology and Evolution 2014; 4(8): 1423– 1438 doi: 10.1002/ece3.1024

Chabwela, H. N. W. and W. Mumba. (1998). Case Study: Zambia.Integrating Water Conservation and Population. Strategies on the Kafue Flats.

Chabwela HN and Haller T (2010). Governance issues, potentials and failures of participatory collective action in Kafue Flats, Zambia. Int. J. Commons 4(2):621-642.

Douthwaite, R.J. and van Lavieren, L.P. (1977). A description of the Vegetation of Lochinvar National Park, Zambia. National Council for Scientific Research, Zambia, NCSR/TR 34, 66pp

Gallagher, J., Macadam, I., Sayer, J., Van Lavieren, L.P., 1972. Pulmonary tuberculosis in free- living lechwe antelope in Zambia. Trop. Anim. Health Prod. 4, 204–213.

Genet, B. S. (2007). Shrub Encroachment into Grassland and its Impact on Kafue Lechwe in Lochinvar National Park, Zambia. International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede, The Netherlands.

Chabwela, N.H. and Haller, T. (2010). Governance issues, potentials and failures of participatory collective action in the Kafue Flats, Zambia. International Journal of the Commons. Vol. 4, 621 – 642.

Howard, G.W. Jeffery, R.H.V. and Grimsdell, J.J.R. 1984 Census and population trends of black lechwe in Zambia. Afr. J. Ecol. 22: 175-179

Jeffery, R.C.V., Chabwela, H.N., Howard, G. and Dugan, P.J. 1986 Making the wetlands of Kafue flats and Bangweulu basin. Proceedings of the WWF Zambia Wetlands Project Workshop, Musungwa Safari Lodge, Kafue National Park.

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Leonard, P., (2005). Important bird areas in Zambia. The Zambia Ornithological Society. MRM Graphics, Singapore. Pp. 85.

Mumba, M., and J. R. Thompson. (2005). Hydrological and Ecological Impacts of Dams on the Kafue Flats Floodplain System, Southern Zambia. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 30:442- 447 Nairobi: African Wildlife Foundation.

Norton-Griffiths, M. 1978. Counting animals. Techniques in African Wildlife Ecology.

Shanungu G.K and Blaser W.J (2011). Lochinvar National Park: Distribution and population estimates of Large Mammals and the status of Mimosa pigra invasion. Technical Report. Department of Research, Zambia Wildlife Authority, Chilanga.

Shanungu, G. K. (2009). Management of the invasive Mimosa pigra L. in Lochinvar National Park, Zambia. Biodiversity (Ottawa) 10:56-60.

Siamudaala, V.M., Muma, J.B., Munag’andu, H.M., Mulumba, M., 2003. Veterinary challenges regarding the utilisation of the Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis) in Zambia. In: Conservation and Development Interventions: At The Wildlife/Wildlife Interface: Implication for Wildlife, Livestock and Human Health, Durban, South Africa, 14th to 15th August, pp. 75– 80.

Stafford, K.J., 1991. A review of diseases of parasites of the Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis). J. Wildl. Dis. 27, 661–667.

Thomas, I. J. (2007). Mapping and Modeling of Mimosa pigra Expansion in Lochinvar National Park, Zambia. International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede, The Netherlands.

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APPENDICES

Appendix 1. Sampling statistics for each stratum for the April 2005 Aerial survey of the Kafue Flats

Stratum Area (km2) Transect Transect Number of Percent of Name spacing (km) orientation transects stratum sampled Stratum 1 456.68 4 North-South 6 11 Stratum 2 237.75 2 North-South 15 20 Stratum 3 2209.81 2 North-South 31 15 Stratum 4 263.3 4 North-South 5 14 Stratum 5 137.63 2 North-South 7 21 Stratum 6 2309.81 4 North-South 21 10 Total 5614.98 Overall 15.17%

Appendix 2. Calibration Data for FSO and RSO

Diilwe Syamuntu - Left Seat Wilfred Moonga - Right Seat (R2 = 0.94) (R2= 0.97)

Altitude Marker Altitude Marker 200 4 200 4 200 4 200 4 200 4 200 4 300 8 300 8 300 8 300 8 300 9 300 8 300 8 300 8 350 13 350 10 350 10 350 10 350 10 350 10 400 13 400 12 400 12 400 12 400 12 400 12 520 15 520 15 500 15 500 13 500 15 500 15

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Appendix 3. Stratum 1 basic information and statistical analysis Basic information – Stratum 1

Wilfred Moonga [R] – Strip Width 199.8064241 Diilwe Syamuntu (L) – Strip Width 200.2643359 Norminal Strip Width 400.0707601 Stratum area [A]Km² 456.68 Number of Transects[n] 6 t 2.570581836 Sample Area[a]Km² 51.33 Possible number of Transects[N] 54 Nominal Flight Height[300ft] 300 Sampling Intensity[S.I] 0.11 Statistical analysis

Av.Radar Transect Transect Wattled Transects [H]m Actual Strip Width[W] Length Area Crane Sitatunga Reedbuck Cattle ft Km Km Km² [z] 1 300 0.4006 30.19 12.09 51 2 299 0.3983 24.06 9.58 4 60 3 301 0.4014 24.62 9.88 4 1 203 4 301 0.4007 23.24 9.31 170 5 296 0.3947 23.64 9.33 3 63 6 307 0.4090 2.76 1.13 40 No. seen Ʃ(y) 4 7 1 587 Density Ʃ(y)/a 0.0779 0.1364 0.0195 11.435 Estimate (Ʃ(y)/a)*A 36 9 5222

Population Variance SŶ ² 323.77 2E+06

Standard Error[SE] √(SŶ ²) 17.994 1468.8 95% Confidence Limits t*SE 46.254 3775.6 Confidence Limits[CL%] t*(SE/Est)*100 72.298

Sample Variance(Sightings) Sy ² 0.5 4890.2 Sample Variance(area) Sz ² 14.3350663

Covariance(Sightings and Area) Szy 0 0.0751 0 78.425

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Appendix 4. Stratum 2 Basic information and statistical analysis

Basic Information Wilfred Moonga[R] 201.6513495 Diilwe Syamuntu[L] 202.1134895 Norminal Strip Width 403.764839 Stratum area [A]Km² 237.75 Number of Transects[n] 15 t 2.144786688 Sample Area[a]Km² 47.58 Possible number of Transects[N] 73 Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft] 303.3116402 Sampling Intensity[S.I] 0.20

Statistical analysis

Av.Radar Spurwinged Wattled Transects [H]m Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Buffalo Lechwe Reedbuck Goose Crane Cattle ft Km Km Km² [z] B L R SWG W c 1 295 0.3927 8.42 3.31 74 2 302 0.4016 7.57 3.04 2 6 3 353 0.4692 6.72 3.15 137 4 299 0.3977 5.83 2.32 1 20 5 293 0.3899 5.44 2.12 1 30 6 306 0.4077 2.09 0.85 1 3 7 297 0.3957 12.08 4.78 42 1 2 8 301 0.4013 11.47 4.60 30 14 9 301 0.4003 9.90 3.96 10 302 0.4020 8.32 3.34 1 45 11 294 0.3916 8.05 3.15 3 7 12 301 0.4005 8.01 3.21 1 55 13 304 0.4051 8.52 3.45 25 14 304 0.4047 8.00 3.24 41 15 298 0.3967 7.68 3.05

No. seen Ʃ(y) 30 42 11 3 2 454

Density Ʃ(y)/a 0.6306 0.8828 0.2312 0.0631 0.042038 9.542581

Estimate (Ʃ(y)/a)*A 150 210 55 15 10 2269

Population Variance SŶ ² 157.95 438433.7

Standard Error[SE] √(SŶ ²) 12.568 662.1432

95% Confidence Limits t*SE 26.955 1420.156 Confidence Limits[CL%] t*(SE/Est)*100 49.036 62.59644 Sample Variance(Sightings) Sy ² 0.5536 1444.418

Sample Variance(area) Sz ² 0.90263844 Covariance(Sightings and Area) Szy 0 0 0.1056 0 0 -0.43713

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Appendix 5. Stratum 3 Basic information and statistical analysis

Name of Stratum Stratum 3 Basic Information Wilfred Moonga[R] 197.1229706 Diilwe Syamuntu[L] 197.5747325 Norminal Strip Width 394.6977031 Stratum area [A]Km² 2209.81 Number of Transects[n] 31 t 2.042272456 Sample Area[a]Km² 323.03 Possible number of Transects[N] 176 Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft] 296.5003293 Sampling Intensity[S.I] 0.15

Statistical analysis

Open Av.Radar Actual Strip Transect Transect Billed Spurwinged Wattled Crowned Yellow Transects [H]m Width[W] Length Area Reedbuck Lechwe Stork Pelican Sitatunga Goose Crane Crane Billed Cattle Waterbuck. C Hippo Kudu

ft Km Km Km² [z] b L cd el e e1 W GR gh C wb wh K

1 297 0.3947 44.38 17.51 1 3 2 66 220

2 297 0.3947 44.45 17.54 19 19 2 150 1

3 297 0.3947 44.42 17.53 2 29 13 5

4 297 0.3947 44.41 17.53 1 63 3 241 3 7 169 7

5 297 0.3947 44.42 17.53 2 22 37 24 78

6 297 0.3947 44.52 17.57 6 17 6 5 8

7 297 0.3947 44.46 17.55 265 30 7 5

8 297 0.3947 44.44 17.54 304 65 5 16 10 30 62

9 297 0.3947 44.36 17.51 328 19 84 12 8

10 297 0.3947 44.51 17.57 250 50 1 35 3 8

11 297 0.3947 39.42 15.56 244 27 1 46 2

12 297 0.3947 40.34 15.92 141 50 1 9 3 1

13 297 0.3947 41.41 16.34 5 202 63 2 59 208 2 2 23 39

14 297 0.3947 42.37 16.73 482 28 7 57 12 1 48

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15 297 0.3947 34.53 13.63 157 164 5 146 17 8

16 297 0.3947 32.75 12.93 16 131 25 88 30 2 1 40

17 288 0.3832 31.16 11.94 343 52 14 55 13 50

18 296 0.3945 29.57 11.67 408 20 88 21 8

19 293 0.3894 27.83 10.84 449 33 8 13 6

20 294 0.3909 26.91 10.52 228 8 15 6

21 299 0.3983 29.06 11.57 78 26 18

22 301 0.4003 28.77 11.52 48 5 1

23 294 0.3914 29.53 11.56 71 8 19 7 15

24 298 0.3960 29.61 11.73 15 3 1 30 13

25 299 0.3975 29.44 11.70 28 3 116

26 301 0.4007 36.44 14.60 3 5

27 297 0.3951 34.80 13.75 2 5 140

28 300 0.3994 32.83 13.11 11

29 293 0.3900 28.40 11.08 1 1

30 292 0.3887 27.09 10.53 8

31 304 0.4047 30.83 12.47 1 1 3 30

No. seen Ʃ(y) 22 4156 852 139 2 1118 402 17 42 1179 1 46 1

Density Ʃ(y)/a 0.0681 12.866 2.6375 0.4303 0.006 3.46097 1.244463 0.052627 0.130019 3.649807 0.003 0.142401 0.003

Estimate (Ʃ(y)/a)*A 150 28431 5828 951 14 7648 2750 116 287 8065 7 315 7

Population Variance SŶ ² 50059 2E+07 907202 471370 2183849 1284234 8419.17 125424.3 3199844 425306.1

Standard Error[SE] √(SŶ ²) 223.74 4610.8 952.47 686.56 1477.785 1133.241 91.75603 354.1529 1788.811 652.1549

95% Confidence Limits t*SE 456.93 9416.6 1945.2 1402.2 3018.04 2314.386 187.3908 723.2767 3653.239 1331.878 Confidence Limits[CL%] t*(SE/Est)*100 303.61 33.121 33.375 147.46 39.46137 84.15865 161.1345 251.7354 45.29532 423.2487 Sample Variance(Sightings) Sy ² 60.333 23978 1091.3 553.56 2752.4 1579.218 10.33333 154.3 4312.497 512

Sample Variance(area) Sz ² 7.53417156 Covariance(Sightings and Area) Szy -1.763 -20.035 8.5962 -18.3 0 28.68493 14.46506 1.526844 9.883755 73.79224 0 -9.78146 0

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Appendix 6. Stratum 4 Basic information and statistical analysis

Name of Stratum Stratum 4 Basic Information

Wilfred Moonga[R] 202.5205561 Diilwe Syamuntu[L] 202.9846881 Norminal Strip Width 405.5052442 Stratum area [A]Km² 264.3 Number of Transects[n] 5 t 2.776445105 Sample Area[a]Km² 36.83 Possible number of Transects[N] 50 Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft] 304.6190476 Sampling Intensity[S.I] 0.14

Statistical analysis Open Av.Radar Billed Spurwinged Wattled Transects [H]m Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Oribi Stork Goose Crane Cattle ft Km Km Km² [z] O A SWG W C 1 399 0.5326 12.19 6.49 2 3 241

2 406 0.5414 14.64 7.93 4 1 3 50 3 408 0.5444 16.57 9.02 3 3 2 24 4 399 0.5326 15.61 8.31 9 1 12 5 415 0.5529 9.18 5.08 6 190

No. seen Ʃ(y) 2 16 11 8 517

Density Ʃ(y)/a 0.0543 0.4344 0.2987 0.2172 14.03813

Estimate (Ʃ(y)/a)*A 14 115 79 57 3710

Population Variance SŶ ² 5096.3 3458.7 304.23 7022759

Standard Error[SE] √(SŶ ²) 71.388 58.811 17.442 2650.049 95% Confidence Limits t*SE 198.21 163.29 48.427 7357.715 Confidence Limits[CL%] t*(SE/Est)*100 172.62 206.84 84.35 198.3063 Sample Variance(Sightings) Sy ² 10.333 5.5833 0.3333 10985.8

Sample Variance(area) Sz ² 2.49042303 Covariance(Sightings and Area) Szy 0 -0.4728 -3.022 -0.503 -141.64

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Appendix 7. Stratum 5 Basic information and statistical analysis

Name of Stratum Stratum 5

Basic Information Wilfred Moonga[R] 200.1209444 Diilwe Syamuntu[L] 199.6633605 Norminal Strip Width 399.7843049 Stratum area [A]Km² 137.63 Number of Transects[n] 7 t 2.446911851 Sample Area[a]Km² 28.93 Possible number of Transects[N] 36 Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft] 300.3214286 Sampling Intensity[S.I] 0.21

Statistical Analysis Av.Radar Wattled Transects [H]m Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Buffalo Wildebeest Crane Cattle ft Km Km Km² [z] B E W c 1 295 0.3934 10.12 3.98 5 173 2 302 0.4023 10.09 4.06 49 3 353 0.4701 10.15 4.77 5 4 299 0.3984 10.10 4.02 15 2 5 293 0.3905 10.13 3.96 157 6 306 0.4084 10.10 4.12 49 7 297 0.3964 10.13 4.02 60

No. seen Ʃ(y) 157 15 7 336

Density Ʃ(y)/a 5.4265 0.5185 0.2419 11.613

Estimate (Ʃ(y)/a)*A 747 71 33 1598

Population Variance SŶ ² 663.86 623043

Standard Error[SE] √(SŶ ²) 25.765 789.33

95% Confidence Limits t*SE 63.046 1931.4 Confidence Limits[CL%] t*(SE/Est)*100 189.33 120.84 Sample Variance(Sightings) Sy ² 4.5 3944.2

Sample Variance(area) Sz ² 0.08217645 Covariance(Sightings and Area) Szy 0 0 -0.037 -12.47

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Appendix 8. Stratum 6 Basic information and statistical analysis

Basic Information 200.100565 Wilfred Moonga[R] 200.5593438 Diilwe Syamuntu[L] 400.6599089 Norminal Strip Width

2309.81 Stratum area [A]Km² 21 Number of Transects[n] 2.085963447 t 228.99 Sample Area[a]Km² 159 Possible number of Transects[N] 296.5003293 Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft] 0.10 Sampling Intensity[S.I] Statistical analysis

Open Wooly Av.Radar Billed Knecked Spurwinged Wattled Yellow Ground Secretary Transects [H]m Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Reedbuck Lechwe Stork Stork Goose Crane Billed Cattle Hornbill Bird ft Km Km Km² [z] b L cd el e1 W gh C wb wh 1 285 0.3801 4.007927195 1.52328176 57 2 296 0.3944 12.30466106 4.85241032 178 3 300 0.4001 4.590553699 1.83654631 4 301 0.4012 50.90643945 20.4227506 651 5 300 0.3998 56.74813855 22.6852525 1 2 542 6 299 0.3991 69.3603591 27.679679 676 7 300 0.4001 81.74691914 32.7045521 5 711 8 308 0.4101 79.09789888 32.4358754 61 950 3 9 305 0.4071 76.6199593 31.1926782 1 101 792 10 303 0.4034 17.39608802 7.01766338 200 391 11 305 0.4067 13.54112065 5.50769654 2 17 2 921 2 12 294 0.3921 11.89000208 4.66170533 12 6 534 13 298 0.3971 10.53394621 4.18310665 4 1 313 52 | P a g e

14 303 0.4034 12.45835344 5.02575812 1 6 15 299 0.3991 13.60251812 5.42901269 137 16 289 0.3858 13.17667828 5.08333213 59 17 305 0.4067 12.60920661 5.12865112 180 18 298 0.3976 11.7128073 4.65666452 58 19 315 0.4201 8.420339354 3.53716814 130 20 311 0.4151 5.342514071 2.21753555 21 308 0.4101 2.955954504 1.21215574 20

No. seen Ʃ(y) 2 7 6 12 380 8 1 7306 3 2

Density Ʃ(y)/a 0.0087 0.0306 0.0262 0.0524 1.659436 0.034935 0.004367 31.90484 0.013101 0.008734

Estimate (Ʃ(y)/a)*A 20 71 61 121 3833 81 10 73694 30 20

Population Variance SŶ ² 10.324 3459.6 2714.1 6606567 8587.484 56568481

Standard Error[SE] √(SŶ ²) 3.213 58.819 52.097 2570.324 92.66868 7521.202

95% Confidence Limits t*SE 6.7023 122.69 108.67 5361.603 193.3035 15688.95 Confidence Limits[CL%] t*(SE/Est)*100 33.223 173.77 179.56 139.8807 239.5502 21.28929 Sample Variance(Sightings) Sy ² 0 4.5 2 6333 8 105278.2

Sample Variance(area) Sz ² 129.549638 Covariance(Sightings and Area) Szy 0 21.418 -9.714 0 110.2042 -0.88829 0 2867.907 0 0

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Appendix 9. Transect Data LAT LONG Stratum Transect Length -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 1 1 30.19174848 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 1 2 24.05559263 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 1 3 24.62313645 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 1 4 23.2381943 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 1 5 23.64085941 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 1 6 2.761692632 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 16 6.205615084 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 14 7.991983151 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 12 8.013822134 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 9 9.903749249 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 7 12.08147715 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 6 2.093285924 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 2 7.578683438 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 3 6.719122514 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 4 5.826438965 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 5 5.443545769 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 8 11.46971885 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 10 8.316765893 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 11 8.054429124 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 13 8.520209387 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 15 7.679518447 -15.49642654 28.1701073 Stratum 2 1 8.428130735 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 1 44.37535124 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 2 44.45105624 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 3 44.41986552 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 4 44.4063504 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 5 44.41881637 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 6 44.5234749 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 7 44.46445563 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 8 44.43699221 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 9 44.35675845 -15.49675017 28.17029505 Stratum 3 10 44.5086594 -15.4967552 28.17023051 Stratum 3 11 39.41715177 -15.4967552 28.17023051 Stratum 3 12 40.34465434 -15.4967552 28.17023051 Stratum 3 13 41.40850688 -15.4967552 28.17023051 Stratum 3 14 42.37453149 -15.4967552 28.17023051 Stratum 3 15 34.52875172 -15.4967552 28.17023051 Stratum 3 16 32.74898538 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 17 31.16339193 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 18 29.57026194 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 19 27.83368432

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-15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 20 26.90741343 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 21 29.05813356 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 22 28.77028413 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 23 29.52558112 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 24 29.61307515 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 25 29.43912536 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 26 36.44297774 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 27 34.79891886 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 28 32.83274564 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 29 28.4018668 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 30 27.0902795 -15.49666601 28.17029891 Stratum 3 31 30.82667499 0 0 Stratum 4 1 12.19142049 0 0 Stratum 4 2 14.6432956 0 0 Stratum 4 3 16.57111366 0 0 Stratum 4 4 15.61323581 0 0 Stratum 4 5 9.177159015 0 0 Stratum 5 1 10.120064 0 0 Stratum 5 2 10.08557973 0 0 Stratum 5 3 10.15393599 0 0 Stratum 5 4 10.1035364 0 0 Stratum 5 5 10.12590854 0 0 Stratum 5 6 10.09885578 0 0 Stratum 5 7 10.13373023 0 0 Stratum 6 6 69.3603591 0 0 Stratum 6 3 4.590553699 0 0 Stratum 6 7 81.74691914 0 0 Stratum 6 1 4.007927195 0 0 Stratum 6 2 12.30466106 0 0 Stratum 6 4 50.90643945 0 0 Stratum 6 5 56.74813855 0 0 Stratum 6 8 79.09789888 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 14 12.45835344 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 21 2.955954504 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 20 5.342514071 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 19 8.420339354 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 18 11.7128073 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 17 12.60920661 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 16 13.17667828 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 15 13.60251812 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 10 17.39608802 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 11 13.54112065

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-15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 12 11.89000208 -15.4780493 27.80789165 Stratum 6 13 10.53394621

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