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The West's Renewable Energy Future: a Contribution by National Grid

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The West's Renewable Energy Future: a Contribution by National Grid The West’s Renewable Energy Future: A Contribution by National Grid July 2008 The West’s Renewable Energy Future A Contribution by National Grid July 2008 THE WEST’S RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE A CONTRIBUTION BY NATIONAL GRID TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Acronyms ...................................................................................................................... 2 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 3 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 5 3 Regional Environmental Goals and Needs ............................................................ 6 3.1 Western US Population Growth ............................................................................. 6 3.2 Electricity Sales Growth and Energy Efficiency ...................................................... 7 3.3 Western States RPS Based Renewable Energy Demand ..................................... 8 3.4 2020 GHG Emission Reduction Targets .............................................................. 10 3.5 Range of Renewable Energy Needs .................................................................... 12 3.6 Potential GHG Emission Costs ............................................................................ 13 3.7 Section Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................... 15 4 Potential Renewable Resource Solutions ............................................................ 16 4.1 DSW Region Renewable Resource Availability ................................................... 16 4.2 Wyoming Wind Resource Potential ...................................................................... 19 4.3 Section Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................... 24 5 Transmission Solutions ........................................................................................ 25 5.1 Background .......................................................................................................... 25 5.2 Transmission Solutions and Costs ....................................................................... 25 5.3 TWE Energy Transmission Costs ........................................................................ 26 5.4 Transmission Grid Operations .............................................................................. 27 5.5 Section Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................... 28 6 Economic and Other Objectives ........................................................................... 29 6.1 Summary of Resource Costs ............................................................................... 29 6.2 Backing Up Intermittent Energy Sources ............................................................. 31 6.3 Land and Water Use Considerations ................................................................... 31 6.4 Section Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................... 32 7 Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................. 33 Appendix A – Major DSW Electric Utilities ............................................................................. 36 Appendix B – RETI Phase 1A Technology Cost Summary ................................................... 37 Appendix C – Representative TWE Map ............................................................................... 38 Appendix D – Plant Assumptions ........................................................................................... 39 Appendix E – Overview of Economic Analysis Results ......................................................... 40 Appendix F – Natural Gas Price Assumptions ....................................................................... 41 Appendix G – Natural Gas Price Volatility ............................................................................. 42 Appendix H – GHG Cost Sensitivities .................................................................................... 43 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 44 Page 1 The West’s Renewable Energy Future A Contribution by National Grid July 2008 LIST OF ACRONYMS AC Alternating Current APS Arizona Public Service Company AWEA American Wind Energy Association BAU Business-As-Usual CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CDEAC Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee CEC California Energy Commission CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent CPUC California Public Utilities Commission CSP Concentrating Solar Power DSM Demand Side Management DSW Desert Southwest (Arizona, Nevada and Southern California) EPA Environmental Protection Agency GHG Greenhouse Gas GWh Gigawatt Hour HVDC High Voltage Direct Current IOU Investor Owned Utility IRP Integrated Resource Plan ITC Investment Tax Credit KV Kilovolt LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy MMtCO2e Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt Hour NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory PTC Production Tax Credit PV Photovoltaic RETI Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative RMATS Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard TTP Tehachapi Transmission Project TWE TransWest Express TWRA Tehachapi Wind Resource Area WCI Western Climate Initiative WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council WGA Western Governors’ Association WREZ Western Renewable Energy Zones Page 2 The West’s Renewable Energy Future A Contribution by National Grid July 2008 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Report has been prepared by National Grid and Energy Strategies, LLC. National Grid owns and operates significant electric transmission assets in the Northeast and the UK and is a leading contributor on electric transmission policy issues.i Energy Strategies is an energy consulting firm based in Salt Lake City, Utah that has supported National Grid’s development efforts in the West. This Report has been prepared to contribute to the current debate on the West’s renewable energy future, including the recently initiated Western Governors’ Association (WGA) sponsored Western Renewable Energy Zones (WREZ) project. It builds on National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) databases of renewable energy resources and compliments the work already undertaken by the California state agencies and public utilities with Phase 1A of the Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) study. Population in the West is growing rapidly which is, in turn, driving an increasing demand for energy in the region. In addition, many states have implemented Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) requiring a certain percentage of electricity sales to come from renewable resources. This Report concludes that the US portion of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region will require 116,000 GWh per year of new renewable energy sources to meet 2020 RPS goals, requiring an investment in excess of $100 billion. The Desert Southwest (DSW) region (that, for the purpose of this Report, consists of Arizona, Nevada and Southern California) will require approximately 50 percent of this total, or about 55,000 GWh by 2020. The analysis in this Report also considers the impact of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) and possible federal greenhouse gas (GHG) legislation on the electricity sector. While it is still not entirely clear how the WCI will affect the electricity sector, this Report concludes that it is credible to assume that the WCI could stimulate even greater demand for new renewable energy resources than RPSs. Similarly, there is some uncertainty about the design and extent of federal GHG legislation, but the prospect of such legislation has already sent market signals to Western utilities, many of which have begun to evaluate a cost associated with carbon dioxide emissions in their resource plans. This acts as a further stimulus to develop new renewable energy. Between RPS requirements and GHG reduction goals the demand for new renewable energy is considerable. The RETI report recognized wind and solar as two of the more viable, large scale renewable technologies. Based on NREL data, the potential of Arizona, California and Nevada’s concentrating solar power (CSP) and wind resources is 2.2 million GWh per year and 85,000 GWh per year, respectively. The potential of Wyoming’s Class 6 and 7 wind energy resources is 235,000 GWh per year and the potential of Wyoming’s Class 4 and above wind energy resources is 944,000 GWh per year. These potential energy figures are all highly theoretical and overlook various practical and cost issues. However, they serve to illustrate that these are the two jewels of the region’s resource potential and that they dwarf the potential capacity for all other renewable technologies and resources in the region combined. A further illustration of Wyoming’s wind potential is that NREL data shows that over 50 percent of the best quality (Class 6 and 7) wind resources in the continental US are located in Wyoming. This vast Wyoming resource is, however, remote from large load centers and new long-distance transmission is required to move this power to market. National Grid has been the lead developer of the TransWest Express (TWE) transmission project. TWE is a proposed 3,000 MW, $3B, 500 kV, HVDC transmission line that will run from wind rich southeast Wyoming to a terminal in
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