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CONSUMER DEBT a Primer CONSUMER DEBT A Primer CONSUMER DEBT: A PRIMER 1 CONSUMER DEBT: A PRIMER THE EPIC CONSUMER DEBT INITIATIVE The Aspen Institute’s Expanding Prosperity Impact Collaborative (EPIC) is a first-of-its-kind initiative in the field of consumer finance, designed to harness the knowledge of a wide cross-section of experts working in applied, academic, government, and industry settings toward the goal of illuminating and solving critical dimensions of household financial insecurity. As part of Aspen’s Financial Security Program (FSP), EPIC deeply explores one issue at a time, focusing on challenges that are critical to Americans’ financial security but under-recognized or poorly under- stood. EPIC uses an interdisciplinary approach designed to uncover new, unconventional ways of understanding the issue and build con- sensus among decisionmakers and influencers representing a wide variety of sectors and industries. The ultimate goal of EPIC is to gener- ate deeply informed analyses and forecasts that help stakeholders (1) understand and prioritize critical financial security issues, and (2) forge consensus and broad support to implement solutions that can improve the financial lives of millions of people. CONSUMER DEBT: A PRIMER 2 EPIC’s current issue is consumer debt, which includes unse- • Accelerator: During the accelerator phase, EPIC will cured debt, auto loans, student loans, and other forms of engage in activities to ensure awareness, leadership, and non-mortgage debt. The time is ripe for an in-depth examina- action-taking around consumer debt solutions. Over time, tion of this issue because the U.S. has recently reached record the accelerator functions will lead to long-term engage- high levels of outstanding credit card, auto loan, and student ment of a diverse cross-sector group of strategic partners loan debt, while mortgage balances remain slightly below 2008 and adoption of EPIC solution ideas by decision-makers levels, raising critical questions about what this means for U.S. and influencers. households’ financial security. Since consumer debt began to rebound from the Great Recession, aggregate balances have This report is a key first step in EPIC’s learning and discovery risen rapidly, with particularly large growth in education phase. In addition to conducting this research synthesis, we are and auto loans. During this time, wages have grown more surveying experts, convening leaders, and learning from con- slowly. While delinquency rates for credit card and mortgage sumers. This will help us better understand the specific aspects debt are below their historical averages, default is an increas- of debt that contribute most to financial insecurity, as well as ingly serious problem in the student and auto loan markets. identify ways to increase the priority of the issue among key Additionally, debt in collections appears on one-third of all stakeholders. consumer credit reports. While many borrowers appear to be doing well, there are indications that consumer debt poses This research primer sheds light on the meaning of current widespread challenges to financial security, especially for trends in consumer debt. It investigates the drivers, features, low- and moderate-income households and other financially and consequences of consumer debt through a comprehensive vulnerable populations. review of the existing literature. The primer considers vari- ous frameworks for studying debt, drawing from the fields of economics, business, sociology, and consumer behavior. It ana- This is the right moment to lyzes historical patterns, contemporary drivers, and differences better understand the changing among demographic groups, as well as connections between specific types of debt and financial distress. Importantly, the dynamics of consumer debt, primer also identifies critical gaps in the research and unan- how households are managing swered questions about the conditions under which consumer debt becomes a source of financial insecurity, and who faces the the debt they are carrying, and greatest risks. This investigation, as well as our other learning the conditions under which it is and discovery activities, will prepare us to prioritize problems a source of financial insecurity. and articulate a framework for developing solutions in the next phase of the EPIC process. EPIC’s work on consumer debt will take place through a three-phase process of learning and discovery, solutions devel- opment, and acceleration: • Learning and discovery: During the learning and dis- covery phase, EPIC will synthesize data, poll consumers, survey experts, publish reports, and convene leaders, to build a more accurate understanding of how consumer debt impacts low- and moderate-income families and how to identify a constellation of solutions to solve for it. • Solutions development: During the solutions develop- ment phase, EPIC will develop a framework for evaluating potential solutions, select a set of highly promising solu- tions to explore in depth, vet those solutions with a diverse group of consumers, cross-sector leaders and experts, and publish our findings and analyses. CONSUMER DEBT: A PRIMER 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Aspen Institute’s Expanding Prosperity Impact auto loans—relate to other areas of the market. This primer Collaborative (EPIC)—an interdisciplinary approach to illumi- distills the research on consumer debt, from its drivers and nating and addressing critical aspects of household financial its dimensions to its impacts on households and society as a insecurity—is focusing on consumer debt. EPIC is studying whole. EPIC will use this critical knowledge base to articulate this issue now because consumer debt has reached record a framework for developing solutions to improve the financial highs amid an economy more robust than at any point since lives of millions of Americans. the end of the Great Recession. Unemployment is at historic lows and wages are up, leading to many rosy interpretations of DEBT IS COMPLEX, DYNAMIC, AND HAS current debt trends. Yet signs continue to point to the fragility MANY DRIVERS of many families’ finances, and households’ experiences with Traditional economic theory posits that households behave debt in the current economy vary widely on demographic and rationally in borrowing and managing their debt based on their geographic lines. This is a critical moment to better understand understanding of their future income. People tend to borrow the changing dynamics of consumer debt, how households are heavily in young adulthood (when they have lower incomes managing the debt they are carrying, and the conditions under but high costs such as education and housing), continue to bor- which it is a source of financial insecurity versus an opportu- row but at a slower pace during middle age, and then slowly nity for future mobility. pay down debt through old age. Research confirms that age and life stage do determine borrowing patterns, but the strength EPIC’s particular focus is on non-mortgage consumer debt, of this relationship may now be changing along with house- such as loans to pay for college or to purchase a vehicle, money hold demographics and income dynamics. Moreover, access borrowed on credit cards, and non-loan debt (i.e. municipal to credit doesn’t depend on age and credit history alone; it is fines and fees, medical debt, and unpaid bills). Non-mortgage also affected by macroeconomic conditions and demographic debt has not received the extensive attention given to housing characteristics, especially race and ethnicity. Borrowing and borrowing, largely because the size of the mortgage market. accumulation of debt are also influenced by sociological fac- However, housing debt is declining as a share of household tors including consumerism. Consumption is a key element debt and current causes for concern—such as rising rate of seri- of social identity, and people often support status-enhancing ous delinquency in credit cards and the emergence of subprime consumption through borrowing. Powerful and unreliable FIGURE I: AggregateAggregate Non-Mortgage Non-Mortgage Debt by Debt Type (Trillionsby Type of(Trillions Dollars) of Dollars) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 HE REVOLVING AUTO LOAN CREDIT CARD STUDENT LOAN OTHER CONSUMER DEBT: A PRIMER 4 social norms regarding “good” and “bad” debt also influence FIGURE II: decision making. Finally, cognitive biases, many of which are ChangesChanges in composition in Composition of consumer of debt, not fully understood, affect people’s use of credit products and Consumer Debt, 2007–20162007–2016 assessments of their affordability over time. 3% 2% ACROSS AMERICA, CONSUMER DEBT IS 9% RISING, BUT THERE ARE LARGE VARIATIONS AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS 5% The long-term trend of rising household debt began in the 3% 1950s. Although the emergence of credit cards and other unse- 4% 2007 cured credit contributed, mortgages were the driving force. This reached a tipping point during the Great Recession, lead- ing to a dramatic, nearly decade-long pullback in mortgage 74% borrowing. Overall consumer debt, however, surpassed the levels that preceded the Great Recession due to growth in stu- dent and auto loans. As a result, the composition of aggregate and household-level debt has shifted and become less consis- tently effective at supporting wealth-building. 11% 2% Consumer debt is not spread equally. It varies by geography, 3% age, income, and race. Most types of debt—though not credit 6% card debt—show
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