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Home , Antarctic silverfish, Antarctic toothfish, Davis Sea, Dissostichus, Marbled rockcod

COMMENT PANDEMICS Invest in screening CONSERVATION , orca and PHYSICS Has the pursuit of OBITUARY Stanley Falkow, people for infections, not whales: three tales of beauty led modern physics microbe-mechanism for viruses p.180 plunder p.184 into a morass? p.186 hunter, remembered p.190 /GETTY NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC NATIONAL PAUL SUTHERLAND/ PAUL

Wandering albatrosses follow a vessel as it fishes for toothfish. Watch over waters In a rapidly changing climate, in the must be managed cautiously in response to data, warn Cassandra Brooks and colleagues.

ntartica is a “natural reserve, devoted are strict, precautionary and science-based. currents and weather patterns are changing3. to peace and science”, according to Nations that are signatories must avoid The northwest coast of the Antarctic Pen- the . This significant or irreversible damage to fish and insula is one of the fastest-warming places Acomplex set of agreements collectively takes other animals that depend on them. on — summer mean temperatures a firm stance on conservation, exemplified But the convention is failing to protect the are on average 3 °C higher than they were in by the Convention on the Conservation of Southern Ocean from overfishing and the 1950. Diminishing ice also means fewer Marine Living Resources. Adopted in 1980, impacts of climate change. algae, krill and Antarctic (Pleura- this convention was negotiated rapidly in Up to 20 nations fish in these icy waters1. gramma ). Cumulative impacts of response to expanding of Antarc- Antarctic krill and Patagonian and Antarctic historical and current fishing combined with tic krill (Euphausia superba). Krill are at the toothfish ( eleginoides and environmental change have been linked to base of the ’s marine , so there Dissostichus mawsoni) are the main quarry. declines in populations of Chinstrap4 and were worries that a dearth of the small crus- More vessels and more-efficient fishing Gentoo penguins5 (Pygoscelis antarctica and taceans would threaten the whole , technologies are now able to catch more ani- Pygoscelis papua). especially whales. mals (see ‘Antarctic fisheries’). Vessels using Because of the convention’s strict The aim of the convention is to conserve vacuum pumps can suck up 800 tonnes of provisions, its 25-member implementing all biota and in the Southern krill in one day2. The vessels compete with body — the Commission for the Conserva- Ocean. Although fishing is allowed, it is not birds and mammals for food, especially in tion of Antarctic Marine Living Resources a right and does not trump responsibility for the most accessible waters. (CCAMLR) — is widely seen as a leader conservation. The convention’s provisions At the same time, ocean temperatures, in high- .

©2018 Mac millan Publishers Li mited, part of Spri nger Nature. All ri ghts r14ese rJUNEved. 2018 | VOL 558 | NATURE | 177

making, tomaking, avoid crashes inpopulations. futurethe should factored be into decision- of climate change on populations now and in The Southern Ocean. impacts inthe fisheries less than 1%of historical levels of Atlantic ( onact scientists’ warnings, abundance the ple, 1990s,after inthe politicians to failed happened has lapse, as elsewhere andfisheries marine ecosystems could col amid rapid climate change, prime Antarctic fishing illegally listing of one of its vessels that was caught in 2011,South Korea prevented black the perceives is not inits interests. For instance, sus, any state can block ameasure that it nations, such as , support view this area to is fishing. Some closed other fishing ofevidence a threat is required before an included. And it has proposed that scientific convention, are even though they expressly that no-fishing zones are contrary to the conserve to sibility nations’ rights to rather fish, than arespon argues that convention the enshrines CCAMLR’s newest member (as of 2007), to weaken convention’s the China, rules. 178 | NATURE178 | 2018 VOL | JUNE 558 |14 support relatively inthe fisheries small waters polar tonnes estimated of krill to reside incircum compared with more the than 300 million saysindustry that such catches are small, are caught off Antarctic the Peninsula. The acid supplements and Most fishmeal. krill areThey mainly destined for omega-fatty- About 300,000 tonnes are caught annually. caught than any other (by weight). elsewhere. those with around seas in the Antarctica, incomparison and harsh conditions have protected animals such as rockcod. the Even so, remoteness Some have bounced back; others haven’t, ( rockcod marbled and lus leonina extinction include elephant ( seals page 184). also (see Species driven almost to Antarctic waters have long plundered been FISHING PRESSURE environmental change and overfishing. targeted and species their vulnerabilities to to greater understanding of dynamics the of fishingthe enterprise. Such studies lead will basic researchport that is independent of mustthem implemented. be mustreserves well be designed, and more of uncertainty about adverse Marine effects. ing inthreatened areas or where there is high mayCCAMLR to reduce need or stop fish COMMENT CCAMLR shouldCCAMLR do more also to sup We urge to better CCAMLR protect If fishing on carries at its current pace operates CCAMLR Because by consen Patagonian and each In Southernmore the Ocean, are krill ), king penguins ( But some fishing states are now trying ), blue ( whales 2 . 8 . morhua Gadus 6 . China has also insisted. Chinahas also Aptenodytes patagonica Aptenodytes Balaenoptera muscu Balaenoptera rossii 9 ) declined to . 9 . For exam Mirounga Mirounga ) © 7

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M a c Prince Edward around the those notably depleted, ian toothfish populations crashed, and remain by 2007 (ref. 11). Nonetheless, many Patagon 33,000 tonnes in1996to less than 2,000 tonnes that did not comply. catches Illegal fell from monitoring vessels and black-listing those situation around by documenting catches, Adélie penguins ( orca nus tonychotes weddellii arethey key prey also of Weddell ( seals predatorfish and SouthernOcean, inthe or how often they Norfish. anyone does know where when, mainthe international for tooth knows how many there are Ross inthe Sea, slowly and can live for 50 years. No one to study.as difficult mature They late, grow vulnerable, as well them particularly make of toothfish Plateau. andBank Kerguelen Islands, BANZARE than vessels did legal lations; fishers took six illegal times more fish unregulated fishing soared and ravaged popu lar intop restaurants. unreported Illegal, and rebranded popu bass, became sea as Chilean tation rocketed toothfish, 1990s,when inthe to prices, high is this Owing lucrative. Exploi ‘Antarctic (see Southern Ocean fisheries’). m i Fishing states want more. Russia is trying The life cycles l l and anice-breaker in An the RossSea. a n

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SOURCE: WWW.CCAMLR.ORG Ocean. TheOcean. 2.8-million-square-kilometre area waters of the is relevant to Southern the allow. may possible be in future when indicators hardship now. But levels higher of fishing (109,000tonnes in2012)isfishery bringing ( temporarily banned fishing of Pacific Fisheries Management has Council and climatestock surveys indicators, the US West Since 2015,on Coast. basis the of toolsalready to has benefit. policy the emerging from around world. the CCAMLR agement being developed. is still Lessons are manResponsive, fisheries ecosystem-based ADAPTIVE ANALOGUES that do not consider climate-change scenarios. and catch allocations are still based on models and climate change is not. CCAMLR’s rules climate-change But experts. progress is slow, and potential actions researchify and monitoring requirements Change Response Work Programme to spec in its policies. In 2017,it produced aClimate account for impacts the of warming global tively incorporated into decision-making. predators. However, data these are not effec impacts onkrill-fishing land-breeding marine monitoring programme designed to study , reductions insummer ice forzen much of year. the Now, as around the was not before fished it 2017 because was fro Sardinops sagax Sardinops A moratorium on fishing polar inthe Adaptive management is inplace off the acknowledgesCCAMLR that it must ). The closure of large this 13 . It says engageit will ©

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M a South Georgia c m what are conditions the under which Given threat the by climate posed change, THREE SOLUTIONS south.in the uncertainty paralleled northcould inthe be willingness to show restraint face in of the aretries members. CCAMLR also Their and Most ecosystem-based. of coun these future Arctic fishing that are precautionary well for development the of strategies for and European the Union have joined since. and Russia. China, Japan, Korea, Iceland United States, Norway, Denmark, Canada years later, ban the was implemented by the to petition for a fishing ban in 2012. Three and 1990s.This prompted 2,000 scientists recover from stock depletion 1980s inthe ( over-harvesting. For example, Sea Bering bordering nations were concerned about The moratorium came about because environment,the and to support research. together to protect sensitive fisheries and study of impacts the of climate change first. to there fish for 16 years, to allow scientists to adopted Arctic the agreement, pledging not states bordering Arctic Central the Ocean are area making the more accessible. In 2017, Commission fortheConservation of Antarctic MarineLivingResources (CCAMLR). 2017–18. Theyare increasingly exploited inspiteoftightmanagementbythe Krill andtooth shreceived thelargestcatchallowances intheSouthernOcean ANTARCTIC FISHERIES i S l l outh Paci c a Such multi-national cooperation bodes In other words, countries can come n Ocean

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Peninsula (forkrill). o theAntarctic Sea (fortooth sh)and increasing intheRoss Fishing pressure is r 14 JUNE 2018 | VOL 2018 | NATURE 558 | JUNE 14 | 179 e s e crashes cies inits web. food To protect against these or species harvested the some other spe shift could causetal apopulation crash in climate-change An scenarios. environmen are on models that based do not include ment measures, including catch quotas, into rules. decision areas outside no-fishing the zone. should includethey comparable reference tancies of animals the safeguarded. being And should last at least as long as life the expec areas. The crucial protectionsecologically Future closures must ban fishing most inthe intended for protection, such as toothfish. less than lifespans the of many of animals the to expireset 35 years which began, is after they mental impacts. protections The Ross Sea are areas for monitoring fishing against environ easternthe tip of Antarctic the Peninsula. off Shelf, Islands Southern Orkney South two, and one one Ross inthe Sea inthe reserves. marine followingthe three steps. marine web, food to needs take CCAMLR tion? To avoid passing tipping points inthe conven the of provisions precautionary fishing can continue and the meet still r v e Incorporate climate-change scenarios Neither includes comparable reference better-designed and more Implement d . Davis Sea — and to comply with provisions the CCAMLR has established CCAMLR Current manage REQUESTING TO FISH N CCAMLR CATCH (TONNES) T TOTAL ALLOWED ooth sh UMBER OFVESSELS Krill Islands Kerguelen <5 11–15 16–20 areas Marine protected Sub-divisions Managed area 5–10 COMMENT 38–63 545–1.3k 2.6k–3.5k 5k 155k 279k 440k 2.6m 93k ------COMMENT of the convention — CCAMLR must be more precautionary and adaptive. This may mean that quotas are reduced, or that allocations are more temporally and spa- Pandemics: spend tially explicit. If the threat of overfishing is deemed readily apparent, or if the level of uncertainty is too high, then CCAMLR may need to temporarily close regions of on surveillance, the Southern Ocean to fishing. Develop more-robust research and monitoring programmes. The Scien- tific Committee on Antarctic Research not prediction (SCAR) should first compile the avail- able information and ongoing research Trust is undermined when scientists make overblown regarding the effects of climate change promises about disease prevention, warn Edward C. and fish populations in Southern Ocean ecosystems. The committee undertook Holmes, Andrew Rambaut and Kristian G. Andersen. these analyses for krill, before establish- ing the CCAMLR convention. SCAR should then work with CCAMLR sci- he resurgence of Ebola virus in the seems like a compelling idea. Namely, that entists, independent experts and non- Democratic Republic of the Congo if researchers can identify the next pan- governmental organizations to identify this May is a stark reminder that demic virus before the first case appears, crucial questions, and what is required Tno amount of DNA sequencing can tell us communities could drastically improve to answer them. CCAMLR needs to be when or where the next virus outbreak will strategies for control, and even stop a virus more transparent and to invite SCAR and appear. More genome sequence data were from taking hold1,2. Indeed, since 2009, the other independent experts into its scien- obtained for the 2013–16 Ebola epidemic US Agency for International Development tific working groups, from which they are than for any other single disease outbreak. has spent US$170 million on evaluating currently excluded. Still, health workers in Mbandaka, the the “feasibility of preemptively mitigating Governments that are part of country’s northwestern provincial capi- pandemic threats”1. CCAMLR will need to fund the research tal, are scrambling to contain a growing Various experts have flagged up prob- and monitoring efforts, which must be number of cases. lems with this approach (including the independent of the fishing industry. The Over the past 15 years or so, outbreaks three of us)3,4. Nonetheless, an ambitious Palmer LTER programme shows that the caused by viruses such as Ebola, SARS biodiversity-based approach to outbreak techniques are available, but investment and Zika have cost governments billions prediction — the Global Virome Project is needed to expand the scientific reach. of US dollars. Combined with a percep- — was announced in February this year, CCAMLR states have acted quickly tion among scientists, health workers and with its proponents soliciting $1.2 billion in the past, but change is accelerating in citizens that responses to outbreaks have in funding from around the world (see the Southern Ocean. Countries must rise been inadequate, this has fuelled what ‘High stakes’). They estimate that other swiftly to this challenge. ■ SEE INSIGHT P.199 mammals and birds contain 1.67 mil- lion unknown viruses from the families Cassandra M. Brooks is an assistant HIGH STAKES of viruses that are most likely to jump to professor in the Environmental Studies Estimated cost of surveying 1.67 million humans, and will use the funding to con- Program, University of Colorado viruses is equal to one-quarter of the NIAID’s duct a genomic survey of these unknown Boulder. David G. Ainley, Peter A. budget for infectious-diseases research. viruses, with the aim of predicting which Abrams, Paul K. Dayton, Robert J. might infect people1. Hofman, Jennifer Jacquet, Donald B. Broad genomic surveys of animal viruses Siniff. will almost certainly advance our under- e-mail: [email protected] standing of virus diversity and evolution.

In our view, they will be of little practical VIROME PROJECT NIH; GLOBAL SOURCES: 1. Brooks, C. M. Polar J. 3, 277–300 (2013). 2. Nicol, S., Foster, J. & Kawaguchi, S. Fish Fish. value when it comes to understanding and 13, 30–40 (2012). US$4.8 mitigating the emergence of disease. 3. Jacobs, S. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 364, 1657– BILLION We urge those working on infectious 1681 (2006). 4. Trivelpiece, W. Z. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. FY2019 budget for US National disease to focus funds and efforts on a USA 108, 7625–7628 (2011). Institute of Allergy and Infectious much simpler and more cost-effective way Diseases (NIAID) 5. CCAMLR. Report of the Thirty-Fifth Meeting of to mitigate outbreaks — proactive, real- the Commission (CCAMLR, 2016). 6. Jacquet, J., Blood-Patterson, E., Brooks, C. & time surveillance of human populations. Ainley, D. Marine Pol. 63, 28–34 (2016). The public has increasingly questioned 7. Liu, N. & Brooks, C. M. Mar. Pol. 94, 189–195 the scientific credibility of researchers (2018). 8. CCAMLR. Report of the Thirtieth Meeting of working on outbreaks. In the 2013–16 the Commission (CCAMLR, 2011). Ebola epidemic, for instance, the inter­ 9. Abrams, P. A. et al. Fish Fish. 17, 1–23 (2016). $.2 national response was repeatedly criti- 10. Ainley, D. G. & Pauly, D. Polar Rec. 50, 92–107 BILLION (2013). cized for being too slow. And during the 11. Österblom, H. & Sumaila, U. R. Glob. Environ. 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, people Change 21, 972–982 (2011). asked whether the severity of the virus 12. Pitman, R. L., Fearnbach, H. & Durban, J. W. had been overblown, and if the stockpiling Polar Biol. 41, 781–792 (2018). Requested amount for 5 13. CCAMLR. Report of the Thirty-Sixth Meeting of Global Virome Project of pharmaceuticals was even necessary . the Commission (CCAMLR, 2017). Making promises about disease prevention

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