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Page 1 NEW DELHI | 12 JUNE, 2021 the SMART INVESTOR 11 Let NEW DELHI | 12 JUNE, 2021 THE SMART INVESTOR 11 .> < Recovery hopes drive Let quant funds build track record before investing SARBAJEET K SEN expense ratio. The average for cap funds. “While stock selec- which invest in market cap regular funds in this category tion should not be a one-time weighted indices. “Some This week Axis Mutual Fund is 1.49 per cent compared to exercise, one has to be careful investors may not want mar- gains for Ashok Leyland joined a select set of fund SHORT TRACK RECORD ket cap to be the primary cri- houses— DSP, ICICI terion for stock selection. Prudential, Tata, Nippon Funds have underperformed their benchmark over their limited They may opt for quant Street expects trend to continue with valuations supporting increase India and Quant—that offer period of existence funds, which can be based on quant funds. Since it is a new Return (%) factors like quality, low RAM PRASAD SAHU category, retail investors Fund/Benchmark 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years volatility, etc,” says Arun Mumbai, 11 June should educate themselves DSP Quant Fund 54.6 Kumar, head of research, about it before investing. Nippon India Quant Fund 54.5 12.8 13.7 Fundsindia.com. shok Leyland was the bigg- Most investors should ide- est gainer among auto stoc- How quant funds work Tata Quant Fund 37.2 -- ally wait until these funds A ks on Friday, rising 4 per These funds select stocks by S&P BSE 200 TRI 62.7 15.1 16.2 have developed a track record cent, and stretching its returns to applying quantitative parame- Nifty 500 TRI 64.7 14.5 16.0 of five-seven years. Only over 15 per cent over the past mon- ters or filters. Qualitative Data is for regular, growth funds. Greater than 1 year return is compound annualised those highly convinced about th. The stock has outperformed its research (interviews with pro- Source: MFI Explorer this approach should begin peers on the back of expectations moters and people within the with a small allocation now. that it will be a key beneficiary of sector) does not play a part in 2.23 per cent for large-cap about avoiding excessive Ideally, your portfolio should the recovery in the economy. stock selection. Human dis- funds. churn,” says Ashwin Patni, be diversified across five bas- An analyst at a foreign brokerage Gains from operating cretion also does not have a head, products and alterna- kets—value, quality, blend says cyclicals tend to gain the most role here. The fund manage- Data paucity and high tives, Axis Mutual Fund. (quality and value), mid and leverage churn as the economy recovers, with n Volumes(units);(%chginbracket) ment team prepares an algo- Quant models rely on data, small-cap, and international. Ashok Leyland being ahead of the rithm that constructs the port- Availability of information which typically becomes A quant fund, depending on %OPM pack as it is the only pure play com- BRIGHT PROSPECTS 6.7 3.9 7.5 10.5 folio and rebalances it declines as one goes from available with some lag. its style, can find a place in mercial vehicle (CV) maker. periodically. large-cap to small-cap stocks. Moreover, when the trend is the appropriate basket, partly FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Government spending on infra- Hence, most quant funds about to change, say, a compa- or fully replacing an active structure and fiscal expansion Revenues 17,267 15,109 22,693 29,142 No deviation from mandate focus on large- and mid-cap ny’s prospects are set to fund. But remember that pas- should boost demand initially in the %change -39.7 -12.5 50.2 28.4 These funds do away with stocks. Small-cap stocks, improve, that information is sive funds and active funds (27.3) replacement segment and later from Ebitda 1,173 595 1,714 3,080 192,000 human bias and which offer a lot of likely to be captured faster both have a considerable new truck additions. (49.8) judgement. They also scope for alpha gen- through qualitative research, track record in India. %change -62.6 -49.3 188.1 79.7 150,800 (-36.6) (-19.6) 125,200 In addition to this, Mitul Shah, 100,700 bring a steadfast eration, tend to be which is not used by these If you decide to invest in head of research at Reliance Securit- Adj. net profit 395 -210 713 1,773 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E approach to stock underrepresented. funds. quant funds, do so for the long ies, points out that positive com- E: Estimates; OPM: Operating profit margin Source: Centrum Broking picking. “There is no “It may not make Quant funds have a very term, as they can underper- mentary from the managements of risk of nasty surpris- sense to look beyond short track record, and have form in the short run. “These Bharat Forge and Tata Motors after cent in the next two years from of Centrum Broking, has been the es in the form of mid-caps in a quant underperformed so far. funds are built based on data March quarter results, coupled with under 4 per cent in FY21. The com- strengthening of the LCV portfolio deviation from the fund due to liquidity Barring Nippon India’s fund and statistics across long peri- healthy margin performance by pany could end FY21 with a loss of especially the 3 tonne segment. The mandate,” says Rishi YOUR constraint,” says (launched in January 2013), ods. As more trades happen both companies, have increased inv- over ~200 crore before posting a vol- company launched the Bada Dost Kohli, managing Kohli. the rest were launched in and more market cycles and estor confidence in the CV industry. ume-led recovery. in September last year helping it director and chief MONEY High churn is June 2019 or after. phases get covered in live con- He expects Ashok Leyland to While commodity costs have improve its market share in the investment officer– another issue. The dition, a quant fund gets clos- outperform going ahead with strong been weighing on margins, analysts LCV goods segment by 200 basis quant strategies, Avendus median portfolio turnover Should you invest? er to its stated objective,” says volumes in the medium and heavy believe that prices should cool off points year-on-year to 11.7 per cent Capital Public Markets ratio for the category was 174 Investors disappointed with Kohli. Adds Patni: “Have a commercial vehicles (M&HCV) and given the high inventory levels and last year. With the company Alternate Strategies. per cent in April 2021, com- the performance of active time frame of three-five years light commercial vehicles (LCV) seg- sharp rise in raw material to sales expanding its portfolio, Rankawat These funds have a low pared to 59 per cent in large- funds move to passive funds, or more,” says Patni. ments in the second half of FY22 ratios for manufacturing compa- expects share gains in this segment with improving margins. nies. Analysts at JM Financial high- to continue while adding that LCVs While a potential third wave is a light that their underweight theme bring stability during M&HCV key risk, the Street is betting that on metals has counterbalanced down cycles. Driven by the e-com- increased vaccination and pent-up overweight plays in sectors such as merce segment, the LCV segment Oilrisestofreshmulti-yearhighsondemandrecovery demand will drive volumes as was autos with their preferred picks did better than heavier trucks over the case last year. Though the being Maruti Suzuki, TVS and the last year. REUTERS GMT, a day after closing at their Agency said in its monthly report funding. demand was subdued earlier due to Ashok Leyland. What has been supporting the London, 11 June highest since May 2019. that Opec+ oil producers would "In 2022 there is scope for the axle load norms and BS-VI related In the heavy truck segment, stock is that valuations are at US West Texas Intermediate need to boost output to meet 24-member Opec+ group, led by rise in prices, volumes were gradu- analysts expect the company’s attractive levels and trading at a Oil prices rose on Friday to fresh (WTI) crude futures were up 14 demand set to recover to pre-pan- Saudi Arabia and Russia, to ramp ally picking up led by higher freight share to recover to over 30 per discount to long-term averages. multi-year highs and were set for cents to $70.43 a barrel, a day demic levels by the end of 2022. up crude supply by 1.4 million rates and capacity utilisation. cent. Long haulage trucks account- The stock is trading at 11 times its their third weekly jump on expec- after their highest close since “Opec+ needs to open the taps barrels per day (bpd) above its Emkay Research’s Raghunan- ed for 32 per cent of CV revenues FY23 enterprise value to operating tations of a recovery in fuel October 2018. to keep the world oil markets ade- July 2021-March 2022 target," the dhan NL says Ashok Leyland offers for Ashok Leyland with its market profit as compared to its historical demand in the United States, US investment bank Goldman quately supplied,” the Paris-based IEA said. the best play on the CV recovery and share at 33 per cent before its share average of 16 times. Investors Europe and China as rising vac- Sachs expects Brent crude prices energy watchdog said. Data showing road traffic estimates its volumes and revenues declined due to the downturn over should await signs of volume gains cination rates lead to an easing of to reach $80 per barrel this sum- It said that rising demand returning to pre-Covid-19 levels to grow in the 42-48 per cent range the couple of years.
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