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Time Series Analysis of the Us Political Economy Of POWER, POLICY, AND THE IDEOLOGY OF PUNISHMENT: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUNISHMENT IN THE RACE TO INCARCERATE, 1972-2002 by HENRY JACKSON, JR. B.S., WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY, 2000 M.P.A., UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS, 2002 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Social Work College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2009 Abstract This study seeks to explain variation in incarceration rates across states. To account for such variation, the study combines approaches: the Rusche & Kirchheimer (1939) thesis, which proposes that incarceration rates rise with unemployment due to potential threat to social order from the unemployed, was merged with social stratification theories to develop a theoretical model explaining variations in state incarceration rates by social class and race. The last 30 years have seen a number of studies dedicated to investigating the validity of the Rusche and Kirchheimer (1939) thesis, but these studies have yielded inconsistent results. This study adheres to and advances Rusche and Kirchheimer’s thesis, exploring the relationship between unemployment rates and incarceration rates utilizing nationwide state-level data. I tested the influence of economic factors on prison rates across the nation interacting with race-ethnicity using time series hierarchical regression, and data indicates mixed support for the Rusche and Kirchheimer thesis. This study found that important predictors related to rising incarceration rates include citizen and governmental political ideology, violent and property crime rates, and percent of population that is African American. Habitual violation of laws, including drug crime, and poverty had small effects on the incarceration rate. Additionally, this study found that inequality, not unemployment, was the most salient predictor of incarceration rates; that is, the differential in employment pay rate factored more significantly than the designation of employed/unemployed. The study revealed that such a relationship between income inequality and punishment differentially impacts citizens in general and African Americans in particular. Since excessive use of prisons exacerbates inequality, understanding the link between economic conditions such as income inequality and punishment has notable policy implications. POWER, POLICY, AND THE IDEOLOGY OF PUNISHMENT: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF U.S. POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUNISHMENT IN RACE TO INCARCERATE, 1972-2002 by HENRY JACKSON, JR. B.S., WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY, 2000 M.P.A., UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS, 2002 A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Social Work College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2009 Approved by; Co-Major Professor Dr. Richard Goe Approved by; Co-Major Professor Dr. Ryan Spohn Copyright HENRY JACKSON, JR. 2009 Abstract This study seeks to explain variation in incarceration rates across states. To account for such variation, the study combines approaches: the Rusche & Kirchheimer (1939) thesis, which proposes that incarceration rates rise with unemployment due to potential threat to social order from the unemployed, was merged with social stratification theories to develop a theoretical model explaining variations in state incarceration rates by social class and race. The last 30 years have seen a number of studies dedicated to investigating the validity of the Rusche and Kirchheimer (1939) thesis, but these studies have yielded inconsistent results. This study adheres to and advances Rusche and Kirchheimer’s thesis, exploring the relationship between unemployment rates and incarceration rates utilizing nationwide state-level data. I tested the influence of economic factors on prison rates across the nation interacting with race-ethnicity using time series hierarchical regression, and data indicates mixed support for the Rusche and Kirchheimer thesis. This study found that important predictors related to rising incarceration rates include citizen and governmental political ideology, violent and property crime rates, and percent of population that is African American. Habitual violation of laws, including drug crime, and poverty had small effects on the incarceration rate. Additionally, this study found that inequality, not unemployment, was the most salient predictor of incarceration rates; that is, the differential in employment pay rate factored more significantly than the designation of employed/unemployed. The study revealed that such a relationship between income inequality and punishment differentially impacts citizens in general and African Americans in particular. Since excessive use of prisons exacerbates inequality, understanding the link between economic conditions such as income inequality and punishment has notable policy implications. Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. x Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ xi Dedication ..................................................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM ............................................................... 1 The Research Question ............................................................................................................... 1 Racial Disparity in Increased Incarceration Rates: Overview of the Problem ........................... 3 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 14 Outline of the Study .................................................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER 2 - LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................... 16 Rise of Prison as Method of Punishment .................................................................................. 16 Punishment and Crime: Seeking Alternative Frameworks ....................................................... 18 Rusche-Kirchheimer Thesis .................................................................................................. 18 History............................................................................................................................... 18 Rusche and Kirchheimer’s Argument: No Bond between Crime and Punishment .......... 20 Deterrence: Principle of Less Eligibility........................................................................... 22 Rusche-Kirchheimer: Propositions ................................................................................... 23 Subsequent Findings ......................................................................................................... 25 Critiques ............................................................................................................................ 26 Extensions ......................................................................................................................... 28 Rusche-Kirchheimer: Political-Ideological Factors .......................................... 30 Interaction of Unemployment and Race ........................................................... 32 An Increase in Crime Results in an Increase in Punishment ................................................ 35 Punishment Reduces Crime Hypothesis ........................................................................... 36 Race and Punishment ............................................................................................................ 38 African Americans and Habitual Criminal Laws.............................................................. 39 Net-widening: African Americans and Disparate Sentencing .......................................... 41 War on Drugs and Punishment ......................................................................................... 45 vi CHAPTER 3 - THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................... 49 Punishment Rationale ............................................................................................................... 49 Statement of Key Study Hypotheses ........................................................................................ 51 Law and Order Politics ......................................................................................................... 54 Political Ideology .................................................................................................................. 56 Government Ideology ........................................................................................................... 57 Citizen Ideology .................................................................................................................... 58 Criminal Threat ..................................................................................................................... 61 Economic Threat ..................................................................................................................
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