MODelling vegetation response to EXTREMe Events Gianni Bellocchi Research Director at INRA
Clermont-Ferrand (France) Brussels (Belgium), 27/06/2016 1 Project outline (November 2013-October 2016) • Challenge: – To help the European (and non-European) agriculture to face extreme weather events by improving the capability of biophysical models simulating plant responses to integrate weather extremes (such as heat waves, cold shocks, droughts, frost)?
• Approaches: – Development of generically usable software units implementing libraries of models – Extension of the multi-model platform for plant growth and development simulations (BioMA) used by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (MARS: Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS)
• Main objectives: – Improve yield monitoring and forecasting systems (scientific) – Novel (reusable) libraries of models (technological)
United Ukraine Switzerland France Portugal Italy States Greece China Spain Consortium partners
Brazil South Africa (18 organizations, 14 countries) Argentine Research institutes (eight) Management consulting company National Institute for Agricultural INRA-Tranfert (France) Research (France) Small-medium enterprise Agricultural Research Council Softeco Sismat (Italy) (Italy) International organization Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Food and Agriculture Organization Research Station (Switzerland) Universities (seven) Danish Meteorological Institute (Denmark) University of Cordoba (Spain) Brazilian Agricultural Research University of Lisbon (Portugal) Corporation (Brazil) University of Milan (Italy) Ukrainian Hydrometeorological University of East Anglia (United Institute (Ukraine) Kingdom) National Agricultural Technology University of Pretoria (South Africa) Institute (Argentina) Democritus University of Thrace Chinese Academy of Agricultural (Greece) 3 Sciences (People’s Republic of Washington State University (USA) China)
Project rationale
Scientific knowledge
Process models Yield monitoring Plant processes and forecast Policy-making Extreme events Food security Climate scenarios Societal question Knowledge transfer Modelling solutions
Inputs (climate, soil, management)
Initial values PaSim GRAPE CropSyst AQUACROP
Parameters OLIVECAN WARM WOFOST …
Outputs Grassland (yield, aboveground biomass, flowering date, …) Tree Crop Field datasets in MODEXTREME
6
validation calibration
Fig. 4 – ComparisonDurum between measured biomass and simulated grain yield and biomass by Fig. 1 – Relationship between grain yield /biomass with rainfall. Wofost andwheat Wofost-Modextreme. simulations
in Southern
Fig. 1 – Relationship between grain yield /biomass with rainfall. Fig. 4 – Comparison between measured biomass and simulated grain yield and biomass by
Italy Wofost and Wofost-Modextreme.
existing modified
Observed Crop model
data WOFOST7 C Yield biomass C
CX CX frequent cut infrequent cut
WD WD Manipulation of precipitation and temperature - Theix
PaSim WDXGrassland WDX model model simulations Observations Existing PaSim Modified PaSim
in Central France Observational
flux site - Grassland Laqueuille
8 extensive grazing
Concerted network (FAO) Institutional (specific) decision-makers
(European Commission Issues Strategic Joint Research Centre and
collaboration collaboration Directorate for agriculture)
Stakeholderpower Independent (local) actors Institutional (assorted) decision-makers
stakeholders
of (European Commission Dialogue & Strategic advisory Directorates for climate, issues advisory & innovation environment, energy and
Diversity research)
Scope of participation
Diversity of stakeholders
Stakeholder platform 9 Publications
10 JRC-MARS agricultural yield forecasting with the platform BioMA There is no doubt that research applications in crop/grassland/tree modelling will continue, but for such applications to sustain long- term interest policy applications need to be developed and applied Next MODEXTREME workshops
DG AGRI - LUNCHTIME SESSION September 20, 2016 12 Brussels, BELGIUM This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement n° 613817.2013-2016