MODelling vegetation response to EXTREMe Events Gianni Bellocchi Research Director at INRA

Clermont-Ferrand (France) Brussels (Belgium), 27/06/2016 1 Project outline (November 2013-October 2016) • Challenge: – To help the European (and non-European) agriculture to face extreme weather events by improving the capability of biophysical models simulating plant responses to integrate weather extremes (such as heat waves, cold shocks, droughts, frost)?

• Approaches: – Development of generically usable software units implementing libraries of models – Extension of the multi-model platform for plant growth and development simulations (BioMA) used by the (MARS: Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS)

• Main objectives: – Improve yield monitoring and forecasting systems (scientific) – Novel (reusable) libraries of models (technological)

2

United Ukraine Switzerland France Portugal States Greece China Spain Consortium partners

Brazil South Africa (18 organizations, 14 countries) Argentine  Research institutes (eight)  Management consulting company  National Institute for Agricultural  INRA-Tranfert (France) Research (France)  Small-medium enterprise  Agricultural Research Council  Softeco Sismat (Italy) (Italy)  International organization  Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon  Food and Agriculture Organization Research Station (Switzerland)  Universities (seven)  Danish Meteorological Institute (Denmark)  University of Cordoba (Spain)  Brazilian Agricultural Research  University of Lisbon (Portugal) Corporation (Brazil)  University of Milan (Italy)  Ukrainian Hydrometeorological  University of East Anglia (United Institute (Ukraine) Kingdom)  National Agricultural Technology  University of Pretoria (South Africa) Institute (Argentina)  Democritus University of Thrace  Chinese Academy of Agricultural (Greece) 3 Sciences (People’s Republic of  Washington State University (USA) China)

Project rationale

Scientific knowledge

Process models Yield monitoring Plant processes and forecast Policy-making Extreme events Food security Climate scenarios Societal question Knowledge transfer Modelling solutions

Inputs (climate, soil, management)

Initial values PaSim GRAPE CropSyst AQUACROP

Parameters OLIVECAN WARM WOFOST …

Outputs Grassland (yield, aboveground biomass, flowering date, …) Tree Crop Field datasets in MODEXTREME

6

validation calibration

Fig. 4 – ComparisonDurum between measured biomass and simulated grain yield and biomass by Fig. 1 – Relationship between grain yield /biomass with rainfall. Wofost andwheat Wofost-Modextreme. simulations

in Southern

Fig. 1 – Relationship between grain yield /biomass with rainfall. Fig. 4 – Comparison between measured biomass and simulated grain yield and biomass by

Italy Wofost and Wofost-Modextreme.

existing modified

Observed Crop model

data WOFOST7 C Yield biomass C

CX CX frequent cut infrequent cut

WD WD Manipulation of precipitation and temperature - Theix

PaSim WDXGrassland WDX model model simulations Observations Existing PaSim Modified PaSim

in Central France Observational

flux site - Grassland Laqueuille

8 extensive grazing

Concerted network (FAO) Institutional (specific) decision-makers

(European Commission Issues Strategic Joint Research Centre and

collaboration collaboration Directorate for agriculture)

Stakeholderpower Independent (local) actors Institutional (assorted) decision-makers

stakeholders

of (European Commission Dialogue & Strategic advisory Directorates for climate, issues advisory & innovation environment, energy and

Diversity research)

Scope of participation

Diversity of stakeholders

Stakeholder platform 9 Publications

10 JRC-MARS agricultural yield forecasting with the platform BioMA There is no doubt that research applications in crop/grassland/tree modelling will continue, but for such applications to sustain long- term interest policy applications need to be developed and applied Next MODEXTREME workshops

DG AGRI - LUNCHTIME SESSION September 20, 2016 12 Brussels, BELGIUM This project has received funding from the ’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement n° 613817.2013-2016

[email protected]