Gianni Bellocchi Research Director at INRA
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MODelling vegetation response to EXTREMe Events Gianni Bellocchi Research Director at INRA Clermont-Ferrand (France) Brussels (Belgium), 27/06/2016 1 Project outline (November 2013-October 2016) • Challenge: – To help the European (and non-European) agriculture to face extreme weather events by improving the capability of biophysical models simulating plant responses to integrate weather extremes (such as heat waves, cold shocks, droughts, frost)? • Approaches: – Development of generically usable software units implementing libraries of models – Extension of the multi-model platform for plant growth and development simulations (BioMA) used by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (MARS: Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS) • Main objectives: – Improve yield monitoring and forecasting systems (scientific) – Novel (reusable) libraries of models (technological) 2 United Kingdom Denmark United Ukraine Switzerland France Portugal Italy States Greece China Spain Consortium partners Brazil South Africa (18 organizations, 14 countries) Argentine Research institutes (eight) Management consulting company National Institute for Agricultural INRA-Tranfert (France) Research (France) Small-medium enterprise Agricultural Research Council Softeco Sismat (Italy) (Italy) International organization Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Food and Agriculture Organization Research Station (Switzerland) Universities (seven) Danish Meteorological Institute (Denmark) University of Cordoba (Spain) Brazilian Agricultural Research University of Lisbon (Portugal) Corporation (Brazil) University of Milan (Italy) Ukrainian Hydrometeorological University of East Anglia (United Institute (Ukraine) Kingdom) National Agricultural Technology University of Pretoria (South Africa) Institute (Argentina) Democritus University of Thrace Chinese Academy of Agricultural (Greece) 3 Sciences (People’s Republic of Washington State University (USA) China) Project rationale Scientific knowledge Process models Yield monitoring Plant processes and forecast Policy-making Extreme events Food security Climate scenarios Societal question Knowledge transfer Modelling solutions Inputs (climate, soil, management) Initial values PaSim GRAPE CropSyst AQUACROP Parameters OLIVECAN WARM WOFOST … Outputs Grassland (yield, aboveground biomass, flowering date, …) Tree Crop Field datasets in MODEXTREME 6 validation calibration Fig. 4 – ComparisonDurum between measured biomass and simulated grain yield and biomass by Fig. 1 – Relationship between grain yield /biomass with rainfall. Wofost andwheat Wofost-Modextreme. simulations in Southern Fig. 1 – Relationship between grain yield /biomass with rainfall. Fig. 4 – Comparison between measured biomass and simulated grain yield and biomass by Italy Wofost and Wofost-Modextreme. existing modified Observed Crop model data WOFOST7 C Yield biomass C CX CX frequent cut infrequent cut WD WD Manipulation of precipitation and temperature - Theix PaSim WDXGrassland WDX model simulations Observations Existing PaSim Modified PaSim in Central France Observational flux site - Grassland Laqueuille 8 extensive grazing Concerted network (FAO) Institutional (specific) decision-makers (European Commission Issues Strategic Joint Research Centre and collaboration collaboration Directorate for agriculture) Stakeholderpower Independent (local) actors Institutional (assorted) decision-makers stakeholders of (European Commission Dialogue & Strategic advisory Directorates for climate, issues advisory & innovation environment, energy and Diversity research) Scope of participation Diversity of stakeholders Stakeholder platform 9 Publications 10 JRC-MARS agricultural yield forecasting with the platform BioMA There is no doubt that research applications in crop/grassland/tree modelling will continue, but for such applications to sustain long- term interest policy applications need to be developed and applied Next MODEXTREME workshops DG AGRI - LUNCHTIME SESSION September 20, 2016 12 Brussels, BELGIUM This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement n° 613817.2013-2016 [email protected] .