Environmental Impact of Population Growth

Colmex The World Bank INEGI ¿Nuevas-viejas perspectivas sobre el desarrollo? La agenda internacional y los ODS

El concepto de desarrollo sostenible, poblacion, y la agenda futura Massimo Livi Bacci, Università di Firenze Ciudad de México, 1 y 2 de diciembre de 2016 Population and the international community (I) • UN sponsored Conferences on Population : 1974 (Bucarest), 1984 (Mexico City), 1994 (Cairo) • World population growth peaks in the ‘60s and ‘70s, rate of growth close to 2% • The Bruntland Report in 1987 (Our Common Future): official definition of sustainability • Cairo 1994: approval of the «Programme of Action» for the international community (International Agencies, States, NGOs, other actors) on the population/development interactions, social policies, funding of policies etc Population and the international community (II) • 2000: United Nations General Assembly and Solemn Declaration of the Chiefs of State. Approval of the «Millennium Development Goals», MDGs, (2000-2015). 8 «Goals» (hunger and poverty, education, women’e empowerment, environmental sustainability and partnership for development, child mortality, maternal health, disease, reproductive health), 30 «Targets»; 48 «Indicators». • 2015: United Nations General Assembly and Solemn Declaration of the Chiefs of State. Approval of the Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs, (2015-30), 17 «Goals», 169 «Targets», 304 «indicators»… • The Bureau of the UN Statistical Commission (UNSC) has carried out an evaluation of the 304 «indicators»: 50 are «feasible»; 67 «feasible with great effort» and relevanti; 86«feasible with great effort» and weakly relevant;95 «difficult even with strong effort» and weakly relevant… • The population question is (almost) ignored or forgotten. Is it «unrelevant» for the sustainability of development? 17 Goals for Sustainable Development 5 The weak foundations of an international consensus • 1) Convergence of «demographic behaviors» is irreversible, determining a decline of differences beween States in fertility and survival, and leading to low fertility and long expectation of life; • 2) Globalization will cancel out inequality between States and greatly reduce international (net) migration; • 3) World population, and regional or State’s populations will converge to a stationary state The End of Demography?

• Globalization and demographic behavior; • Convergence of fertility performances? (Homeostasis? Policies?...); • Convergence of survival patterns (diffusion of biomedical technologies; common health care patterns; nutrition, environment, personal habits…); • End of population cycles and convergence to stationarity of world’s, regions and states populations; • End of international («settlement») migration flows

7 Geo-demography on a roller coaster

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0 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

8 45 Geo-demografia del mondo 40

30 AFRICA ASIA (meno Cina e India) 25 INDIA CINA EUROPA 20 CENTRO SUD AMERICA NORD AMERICA

0 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Population and (Un)sustainability

• 1) – Very low fertility in a growing number of countries with more than 2 billion people ; • 2) – Very high fertility in countries with more than 1 billion people; • 3) - Risk of «malthusian trap» in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere; • 4) - Sex-selective abortion in Asia; • 5) – Environmental impact of population growth; • 6) – The anthropization of pristine areas; growing density of fragile areas; • 7) - International migration and absence of supranational regulation and governance; Unsustainability # 1

• In many countries fertility is extremely low (TFR<1.6), in some countries «lowest-low» fertility has been stagnating for one generation or more; • Most of Europe, Japan, China, South Korea, Thailand, Iran (Brazil is close…): total population > 2 billions

11 Is an Upturn Possible?

• Implosion: Low fertility nurtures low fertility in a negative spiral; • Social reproductions as a substitute of biological reproduction; • Upturn: Consensus (forecasts & projections); • Rationale of the upturn: – Inner mechanisms activate homeostasis and return to equilibrium; – Diseconomies & fear of population decline; – More resources transferred to the young, to the couples and families; more investment on children

12 Population of Germany and Nigeria in 2050 (2015 = 100)

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0 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Totale Unsustainability # 2

• In Sub-Saharan Africa fertility has hardly declined since the 50’s (TFR still around 5), the rate of population growth is (2010-15) 2.7% (3% in Middle Africa); • Population will double from 1 to 2 billions between 2015 and 2050; • Ineffectual population and social policies, except in a few countries (Ethiopia; Rwanda); Unsustainability # 3

The Malthusian Trap in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere …Food→Disease →High Mortality →High Fertility →High rate of growth →Food… The Malthusian Trap (1)

• Index ADER (Adequacy Dietary Energy Requirement), 1990-92 and 2010-14 • • 1990-92 2012-14 Var. % • Southern Asia 106 109 + 2,8 • India 105 108 + 2,9 • Pakistan 108 108 = • Sub-Saharan Africa 106 110 + 3,8 • • LDCs 108 119 +10,2 • MDCs 132 135 + 2,3 The Malthusian Trap (2)

• % of children under 5, wasted, stunted or underweight, and under-5 mortality rate (per 1000) • • Wasted Stunted Underweight Mortalit Bangladesh (2011) 15,7 41,4 36,8 56 • India (2006) 20,0 47,9 43,5 64 • Pakistan (2011) 14,8 43,0 30,9 78 • Côte d’Ivoire (2007) 14,0 39,0 29,4 123 • R.D Congo (2010) 8,5 43,5 24,2 194 • Ethiopia (2010) 10,1 44,2 29,2 92 • Kenya (2009) 7,0 27,7 16,4 90 • Nigeria (2011) 10,2 36,0 24,4 142 The Malthusian Trap (3)

• Mean Number of Children per Woman (TFR), Africa and rest of the World, 1950-2010 • 1950-55 1980-85 2010-15 • • North Africa 6,81 5,67 3,04 • Sub-Saharan Africa 6,53 6,69 5,11 • Africa 6,60 6,46 4,68 • • LDCs 6,08 4,18 2,63 • MDCs 2,83 1,84 1,68

• World 4,97 3,60 2,50 Unsustainability # 4

• Baby girls selective abortion in Asia: policies (one- child policy in China); preference (male heir); technology (early sex detection); • Natural sex ratio at birth: 105/106 baby boys per 100 baby girls; • But: 117 in Cina (2005-10); 111 in India (over 120 in Delhi, Aryana..); 114 in South Korea (in the ‘90s); 110 in Vietnam, Pakistan and elsewhere; • Cultural preference for boys is a worrying phenomenon; ethical implications, distorsion of the marriage market…etc Unsustainability # 5

• Environmental impact of demographic and economic growth; • Exit from poverty and (unsustainable?) consumption of energy and of non renewable resources; Fertility & unsustainable growth Pauperia & Tycoonia, 2014-2050 (I) • Growth in Tycoonia: Population (P) 0%; per capita income (Y) 2%; • Growth in Pauperia: Population (P) 2%; per capita income (Y) 5%; Impact on environment (I) if technology remains fixed: I = P x Y Impact in 2050: In Tycoonia, twice the impact of 2014; In Pauperia, twelvefold increase12 over 2014.

21 Fertility & unsustainable growth Pauperia e Tycoonia, 2014-2050 (II) • In Pauperia: • Strengthen social policies and reduce fertility (reproductive health, education, gender equality, help for the elderly); • New energy saving technologies; technologies for the subsituition of non-renewable resources; • In Tycoonia • Development of new technologies and transfer to Pauperia

22 Unsustainability # 6

• Anthropization of space: more than half of the 134 million Km2 of land directely or indirectly used by humankind; • Intrusion in pluvial forests and other fragile environments; • Population growth in coastal areas higher than in non-coastal land; very high growth il low lying coastal areas (less than 10 meters above sea level); • Problematic environmental impact of large conurbations/megalopolis (megalopolis above 10 millons: 10 in 1990, 28 in 2014) World Land Use

• wood /forest Steppe/Savanna Tundra/Desert Cropland Pasture • Pristine 58,6 44,1 31,4 0,0 0,0 • 1700 54,4 40,8 31,1 2,7 5,2 • 1850 50,0 35,5 30,4 5,4 12,8 • 1990 41,5 20,0 26,9 14,7 31,0 Changes in Land Use, 1700-2000 Unsustainability # 7

• SDGs silent on international migration, although we may discover «target» 10.7 (one of the 169 targets): “facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people…”, generic and ambiguous (who is going to facilitate? What does “responsible migration” mean?) and impossible to achieve without an embryo of international governance of flows. Population in active age(20 to 65; millions) 2015-2050

• 2015 2050 Var % • MDCs 753 602 -20,1 LDCs 3474 4765 +37,2 • • United States 190 183 -3,7 • Mexico 71 96 +38,2 • • Italy 36 24 - 33,3 • North Africa 120 192 +60,0 • • Japan 71 49 -31,0 • Philippines 54 96 +77,8 Per capita GDP, PPP international $, rich and poor countries, 1950, 1980 and 2013

3 Rich 7 Poor Rich/Poor Difference • • 1950 10284 793 13,0 9491

• 1980 27230 1906 14,3 25324

• 2013 47389 7831 6,1 39558

• Note: 3 rich countries: USA, Germany, Japan; 7 poor cuntries: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, Mexico and Brazil. Weighted (population) mean. Closing Remarks

• Population growth slowing down, but three or four billion people will be added to the current 7.5 during the rest of the century; • How far will convergence go? • Is an ultimte stationary hypothesis reasonable? • Even if a quasi-stationary régime is achieved, population cycles in countries/regions of the world will not be synchronic; • Several aspects of «demographic» potential unsustainability have been identified; • Policies and governance may counter negative effects, and particularly for: – # 2 (high fertility) and # 3 (malthusian trap); – # 4 (abnormally high sex ratio); – # 7 (International migration)