ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE June 10, 2016

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR ENERGY ADVISOR A WEEKLY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org June 10, 2016

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TOP NEWS Mary Rose Brusewitz Partner, OIL & GAS Strasburger & Price Can Parente Jeffrey Davidow Venezuela’s Senior Counselor, Maduro Creates The Cohen Group Nurse Petrobras Mining Ministry Ramón Espinasa Consultant, Venezuelan President Nicolás Inter-American Development Bank Back to Health? Maduro late Tuesday announced Luis Giusti the creation of a ministry devoted Senior Advisor, solely to mining, as the OPEC Center for Strategic & country attempts to diversify International Studies national revenues away from oil Jonathan C. Hamilton amid low global crude prices Partner, by exploiting untapped mineral White & Case resources. Raul Herrera Page 2 Partner, Corporate & Securities Practice, Arnold & Porter RENEWABLES James R. Jones Co-chair, Macri Seeks 20% Manatt Jones Global Strategies Renewables in Jorge Kamine Pedro Parente has promised to restore Petrobras’ fi nancial health without government assis- Counsel, tance. // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Energy Mix Skadden Arps Argentine President Mauricio Craig A. Kelly Macri is seeking as much as $20 The board of Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras last Director, billion in investments over the Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, month named Pedro Parente as the company’s new CEO. next decade in a push to generate Exxon Mobil Parente, who replaces Aldemir Bendine in the post, has a fi fth of Argentina’s power from Jeremy Martin Q renewable resources by 2025. Director, said that political interference in the state-run oil company Page 3 Energy Program, will come to an end and vowed to restore the fi rm’s fi nancial health, Institute of the Americas adding that Petrobras will sell assets and will not rely on a government Larry Pascal RENEWABLES Chairman, bailout. Parente was formerly the top executive at the Brazilian unit of Americas Practice Group, U.S. agribusiness company Bunge and currently chairs stock market Jamaica’s Holness Haynes & Boone Commissions 24 Charles Shapiro operator BM&FBovespa. How successful will Parente be in managing the President, company amid low oil prices and an ongoing corruption investigation? MW Windfarm World Affairs Council of Atlanta How practical is Parente’s plan to avoid government intervention while Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew R. Kirk Sherr Holness on Saturday commis- President, restoring the company’s fi nancial health? What effect will Parente’s busi- sioned the Wigton III wind energy Clearview Strategy Group ness-focused background have on the government-run oil giant? plant. Garrett Soden Page 3 Director, Etrion Corporation Clarissa Lins, founding partner of Catavento Consultancy Mark Thurber in Rio de Janeiro: “The recently appointed Petrobras CEO, Partner, Andrews Kurth Pedro Parente, is known for his leadership, managerial skills Alexandra Valderrama and ability to navigate in turbulent contexts. Among his Manager, A International Government Affairs, recognized accomplishments while he was a civil servant are a complex Chevron process of debt renegotiation with more than 20 local governments in Lisa Viscidi 1998 and the management of the energy crisis in 2001, both under former Program Director, Inter-American Dialogue President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. After a successful longstanding Max Yzaguirre career in the public sector, Parente fi rst transitioned to the private sector President and CEO, as the CEO of media conglomerate RBS and then moved to lead Bunge The Yzaguirre Group operations in Brazil. He currently chairs the Brazilian stock exchange, BM&FBovespa, and is partner of an investment boutique. His profession- Holness // File Photo: Jamaican Government. Continued on page 3

OIL & GAS SECTOR NEWS NEWS BRIEFS Aranguren Facing Venezuela’s Conﬂ ict of Interest Share of Renewables in Brazil’s Energy Mix Maduro Creates Investigation Jump to 41.2% in 2015

Mining Ministry Argentine energy minister Juan José Aranguren The share of renewables in Brazil’s energy mix is being investigated by a local prosecutor rose to 41.2 percent in 2015, a 4.6 percent in- Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro late for potentially having a confl ict of interest by crease year-on-year, the Ministry of Mines and Tuesday announced the creation of a ministry continuing to own shares of Royal Dutch Shell, Energy said in its Brazilian Energy Review 2016 devoted solely to mining, as the OPEC country where he previously served as an executive of report published Monday, SeeNews reported. attempts to diversify national revenues away the local branch, the Associated Press reported The report also said that renewables supplied from oil amid low global crude prices by Thursday. Aranguren became energy minister 75.5 percent of the country’s electricity mix. exploiting untapped mineral resources, Reuters in December. He reported about $1.1 million For liquid transport fuels, Brazil’s ethanol reported. Nearly all of the country’s foreign in Shell’s class-A shares in a wealth statement and biodiesel had a 21.4 percent penetration, exchange comes from its oil industry. Mining released this week. The Argentine government among the highest in the world. CO2 emissions is defending Aranguren against mounting in the country have fallen to about 33.6 percent criticism, and cabinet chief Marcos Peña said less than the world’s average, which the Wednesday that “the law is very clear,” and ministry attributed to the high percentage of there is no confl ict of interest. Critics, however, renewables in the country’s energy mix. say that Aranguren could benefi t from his privi- leged information about the oil market. Correa Predicts Oil Will Odebrecht Unit Hover at $50/Barrel Through Year-End Mirabal // File Photo: Venezuelan Government. Awaiting Financing Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa on for Pipeline Project Wednesday predicted that oil prices would activities had previously been overseen by the remain around $50 per barrel through year-end, Ministry of Petroleum and Mining, and the new The credit committees for a group of 20 banks Reuters reported. He added that the predicted Ministry of Ecological Mining Development will set to provide the syndicated loan to fund an price level would not be enough to relieve the supervise state-run mining companies, such as Odebrecht natural-gas pipeline project in Peru fi nancial strain on the Andean country. Low Minerven and the Venezuelan Mining Corpo- have so far refused to sign off on the deal, oil prices have increased debt and reduced ration, among other responsibilities. Roberto citing concerns over the corruption scandal in investment in the small oil-exporting country Mirabal will head the new ministry. In Febru- Brazil that landed the company’s former CEO in and have hindered economic progress. ary, Maduro said mining “is one of the most prison and has implicated many others in Bra- immediate sources” the nation has to balance zil’s political and business sectors, Bloomberg its revenues, the Financial Times reported. The News reported Tuesday. According to two Maduro administration is seeking foreign in- Mexico Plans for Next people with direct knowledge on the matter, vestment in gold production and this year inked Odebrecht has not received a $4.1 billion loan Bidding Round of Energy an agreement with Canadian mining company for the construction of the pipeline, because Auction by End of July Gold Reserve to develop the Las Brisas and credit committees do not feel comfortable Las Cristinas mines, Reuters reported. Mirabal The next round of bidding in Mexico’s oil and lending to Odebrecht unit Gasoducto Sur will be in charge of leading negotiations with gas auctions is set for the end of July and will Peruano, or GSP, a special-purpose venture Gold Reserve, which won a $750 million award include 15 shallow water blocks for exploration of the construction conglomerate, due to the through the World Bank’s International Center and extraction in the Gulf of Mexico, Energy “Operation Carwash” corruption scandal and for Settlement of Investment Disputes over the Minister Pedro Joaquín Coldwell said Wednes- possible fi nes that the holding conglomerate 2009 termination of a mining concession. Gold day, Reuters reported. The following round may face. GSP won a 34-year license to build Reserve agreed this year to participate in a will be called by the end of the summer during and operate the 671 mile-long pipeline in June new joint venture with Venezuela as part of the which 14 onshore blocks for exploration and 2014. Spain’s Enagas holds a 25 percent stake, resolution of the dispute. production in the Burgos basin and southeast and Peru’s Grana & Montero bought a 20 per- Mexico will be up for grabs.

COPYRIGHT © 2016, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR June 10, 2016 cent stake in September for $215 million. GSP sustainable projects. “The government has a national grid, the government said in a state- has been looking into more expensive bridge keen sense of urgency, which is a very good ment. The 24 megawatt Wigton III wind energy loans while it awaits syndicated fi nancing, the thing. They are doing lots of the right things at plant began supplying energy to the grid in people with knowledge on the matter said. a feverish speed,” he said. March at its projected output rate, generating Odebrecht controls a 55 percent stake in GSP, at a rate of 63,072 megawatts per year. The fa- and it is in talks with fi ve potential bidders to cility includes 12 wind turbines, each with two sell its stake. It has transferred GSP manage- Jamaica’s Holness megawatts generation capacity, a 9.6 kilometer ment to Enagas, said a press offi cial at the São Commissions 24 MW transmission line and a new substation. The Paulo-based construction fi rm. entire project, constructed by Spain’s Gamesa, Windfarm Expansion did not exceed its $45 million budget. The plant is expected to reduce national oil consumption RENEWABLES NEWS Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness on by 37,100 barrels per year and cut down on Saturday commissioned the fi rst of three re- oil imports. Activity from the fi rst two Wigton newable energy projects selected by the Offi ce plants has cut down on oil imports by more Macri Seeks to Grow of the Utilities Regulation in 2013 to become than 120,000 barrels per year, already resulting Share of Renewables fully operational and begin transmission to the in approximately $24 million in savings. in Energy Mix to 20% FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 al trajectory clearly makes him one of the political interference in any decision; and (iii) Argentine President Mauricio Macri is seeking most prepared and respected businessmen the support of a new operating regime which as much as $20 billion in investments over the in Brazil. His previous experience in the fosters competition and alleviates Petrobras next decade in a push to generate a fi fth of public sector also allows him to have a obligations as sole operator of the pre-salt.” Argentina’s power from renewable resources by sound understanding of the complexities of 2025, the Financial Times reported Thursday. the public sector decision-making process. Francisco Ebeling Barros, Ber- Although Argentina relies on fossil fuels for lin-based independent energy two-thirds of its power, the government is consultant: “In normal times, hoping to add 10,000 megawatts of cleaner [Parente’s] profession- A Pedro Parente’s announcement energy capacity over the next decade. The al trajectory clearly that political interference in the state-run government wants to attract more than $2 makes him one of the oil company will come to an end would be warmly welcomed. At this juncture, however, billion in investments this year in order to most prepared and re- provide more than 1,000 megawatts of mostly it comes with a few caveats. First, the two spected businessmen wind and solar energy. Increased investment former CEOs, Maria das Graças Silva Foster in renewables will lower the country’s reliance in Brazil.” and Aldemir Bendine, in practice already on imported energy, which remains a burden — Clarissa Lins attempted to implement that philosophy. on Argentina’s already high fi scal defi cit. The Second, Parente was nominated by Michel turn toward green energy may also eventually Temer’s corrupt cabinet, as it is recognized counter the less-profi table-than-expected Vaca by the international press. Thus, it is doubt- Muerta shale oil and gas region in Argentina. This is why I believe he is perfectly suited to ful whether what seems to be a marketing Vaca Muerta is struggling due to low oil prices handle Petrobras’ turnaround. He served as gag has any credibility. Consequently, it is and high costs of extraction. Energy companies a board member of the company between also doubtful whether his vow to restore can expect “phenomenal” renewables growth in 1999 and 2002, and therefore has a clear the fi rm’s fi nancial health can be trusted, Argentina in coming years, said Emilio Ilac, the picture of the key factors for Petrobras’ suc- or whether his real intention is to privatize CEO of Puente, an investment bank in Buenos cess, one of which is its relationship with the the company, a move which the majority of Aires. Looking ahead as the Macri administra- government. His inaugural speech focused the country’s population opposes. Third, tion ramps up investment, Gabriel Goldschmidt, very clearly on a few priorities: (i) the fi nan- through this seemingly modern discourse of the director for infrastructure in Latin America cial turnaround, based on the best market de-politicization of the public sphere, there for the International Finance Corporation, point- practices such as securing price parity at is a risk of excluding other types of virtuous ed to broader “tensions” between the govern- international levels and the implementation non-parliamentary public interventions. An ment’s need to attract investment as quickly of the divestment program; (ii) the lack of example is the local content policy, which as possible in order to jump-start the economy Continued on page 6 and the time it takes to plan and implement

POLITICAL NEWS ADVISOR Q&A Kuczynski Declares Victory in Close What Would a Trump Presidency Peru Election Mean for Latin America?

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a center-right former Donald Trump has emerged as could in fact leave, by the end of the Obama prime minister and fi nance minister, on Thurs- the presumptive Republican administration, a generally positive legacy day declared victory in Peru’s closest presiden- Q Party nominee for president and footprint for the United States across tial election in decades. Election authorities of the United States. In April, most of Latin America and the Caribbean. Trump delivered his “America First” foreign Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric threatens policy speech, in which he said the United to jeopardize these small but signifi cant Fujimori has not States “will no longer surrender this country gains in hemispheric relations. For starters, conceded and did not or its people to the false song of globalism.” his Mexico and immigrant bashing, though release a public statement Will inward-looking foreign policy state- targeted solely at a NAFTA partner, is seen ments from Trump appeal to Latin American by many around the region as a worrisome on Thursday. leftists who have long accused the United sign of the potential return of an arrogant States of meddling in the region’s affairs? and overbearing, ‘my way or the highway,’ have not yet certifi ed a winner, but the ONPE How would others in the region who have U.S. posture. In a region that highly values electoral authority said Friday morning that complained about being ignored by the predictability in its relationship with the 99.96 percent of the ballots had been counted, United States respond to Trump’s vision? continental hegemonic power, his foreign with Kuczynski maintaining his lead with 50.12 What U.S. foreign policy changes toward policy maxim—articulated in his recent fi rst percent of the vote over former legislator Keiko Latin America could we expect if Trump is foreign policy speech—postulating that the Fujimori, who had 49.88 percent. Fewer than elected? Would Latin American leaders be United States will become ‘unpredictable’ 42,000 votes separated the two candidates. willing to partner with the United States to has, unsurprisingly, raised eyebrows in cap- The tally made it appear unlikely that Fujimori, cover more costs of establishing law and itals throughout the Americas. Moreover, as the daughter of jailed former President Alberto order, as Trump says he will demand from President Obama has sought to deepen and Fujimori, could surpass Kuczynski with the few allies? How would Trump’s foreign policy expand Washington’s soft-power capabilities votes yet to be counted, The New York Times objectives alter the way the United States and tools in the region, Trump’s discourse, reported. “Thank you, Peru!” Kuczynski, widely and countries of the region interact in terms measured both in terms of nation-branding known by his initials, PPK, said in a posting of trade and commerce? and winning the hearts and minds of so- on Twitter. “It’s time to work for the future of cieties around the continent, is an unmiti- our country.” Fujimori has not conceded and Arturo Sarukhan, board gated disaster for the United States’ public released no public statement on Thursday. member of the Inter-American diplomacy footprint there. By talking about Some members of her party said they would Dialogue and former Mexican building walls, resorting to demagoguery present challenges to some ballots because of A ambassador to the United and xenophobia to whip up anti-immigrant irregularities, though they did not specify what States: “Current U.S. policy in the Americas, sentiment and blasting trade deals, Trump is those irregularities were. eschewing grandiose, over-arching and undermining efforts in recent years by Dem- all-encompassing themes, and focusing ocratic and Republican administrations alike instead on approaches à la carte—mostly to develop new paradigms and a rules-based Venezuela Electoral issue-driven and sub-regional in nature—has system with like-minded governments and Board Accepts been, given the real limitations in U.S. for- with citizens and NGOs in the Americas.” eign policy bandwidth in a geo-strategically Recall Petition fl uid and challenging 21st century, relatively successful. The fact that this pragmatically EDITOR’S NOTE: More commentary on this Venezuela’s National Electoral Board, or CNE, inspired policy has been accompanied by a topic appeared in Tuesday’s issue of the on Tuesday announced that it had accepted reframing in the messaging, narrative and Latin America Advisor. as valid 1.3 million signatures on a petition substance of U.S. inter-American diplomacy, calling for a recall referendum against Presi-

NEWS BRIEFS dent Nicolás Maduro, Agence France-Presse BUSINESS NEWS reported. The ruling is seen as a victory for the Nuevo León Governor, country’s opposition leaders who had orga- Colombia to Force Kia Reach Deal to nized the petition and who blame Maduro for leading the country to the brink of collapse. Novartis to Lower Cut Incentives The next step in the process of removing Mad- The governor of the state of Nuevo León in uro from offi ce will be for the CNE to verify the Price of Cancer Drug northern Mexico has reached a deal with South identities of 200,000 signatories through fi nger- Korean automaker Kia to sharply decrease print scans. According to the Constitution, the The Colombian government will unilaterally many of the public incentives that had been opposition would then have to gather at least force the world’s largest drug maker, Switzer- promised by the previous state administra- four million more signatures, or 20 percent of land-based Novartis, to lower the price of a tion to build a car production plant there, the electorate, in order to trigger a recall vote. popular leukemia medicine, authorities said The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. If the referendum takes place before Jan. 10, Thursday, the Associated Press reported. State offi cials said the agreement announced which is four years into Maduro’s six-year term, Health Minister Alejandro Gaviria said the deci- Wednesday will cut the value of incentives a successful recall vote would trigger new sion came after two weeks of discussions with from an estimated 28 percent to 10 percent elections, rather than the transfer of power to Novartis over a patent dispute. The two sides of the nearly $3 billion investment by Kia and the vice president. Leading up to the announce- ended negotiations without an agreement, and its Korean suppliers in Pesquería, a town near ment, protesters had tried to march on the state capital Monterrey’s international airport. CNE’s headquarters, but heavily armored riot police broke up the protest, fi ring tear gas into The decision may set the crowd. Maduro’s administration has ac- a precedent for other cused the opposition of committing fraud in its Brazil’s Embraer Names collection of the signatures. “There won’t be a middle-income countries New Chief Executive referendum this year,” Vice President Aristóbu- struggling with Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer said lo Istúriz said Monday.CONOMIC NEWS high drug prices. its commercial aviation unit head, Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva, will take on the role as Chile’s Cabinet the company’s CEO later this year, replacing current head Frederico Curado, The Wall Street Chief Resigns Gaviria said Colombia has decided to follow Journal reported Friday. Silva will assume his through on a threat to declare the drug Gleevec new duties over the next month, and the full Amid Policy Disputes in the public interest, which is the fi rst step in transition is likely to be complete by the end of breaking up Novartis’ monopoly on the drug this year, the company said in a statement. Jorge Burgos, who had served as Chilean in the country. He added that the resolution, President Michelle Bachelet’s cabinet chief and which will be published in the coming days, will interior minister for just over a year, resigned likely order Novartis to lower the price of the Wednesday amid a series of policy disputes drug, rather than open production to generic Citi’s Sale of Brazil Unit with other members of Bachelet’s government, rivals, as had been originally contemplated. Likely to Face Tough Reuters reported. Burgos, of the Christian Gleevec has been the top-selling drug for Scrutiny: Regulator Democrat Party, had disagreements with other Novartis since 2012, bringing in $4.7 billion cabinet members over labor reforms and the worldwide last year, or about 10 percent of the Citigroup’s planned sale of its Brazil unit is administration’s agenda to fi ght crime, the wire company’s total revenue. The drug currently likely to face more intense scrutiny from the service reported. Burgos was stepping down costs around $44 per pill, Reuters reported. country’s antitrust agency, Cade, because of for “personal reasons,” the government said The government had proposed that the price the concentrated nature of the country’s bank- in a statement. The government added that be lowered to the equivalent of $18.50 per ing industry, one of the agency’s regulators Burgos will be replaced by Mario Fernández pill. Leaked memos written by diplomats at told Bloomberg News Wednesday. Any banking Baeza, Chile’s ambassador to Uruguay. Burgos Colombia’s Embassy in Washington said they merger should automatically be considered informed Bachelet of his decision to step down had been under intense lobbying pressure from “complex,” said the offi cial, Cristiane Alkmin in a nearly hour-long meeting on Wednesday, the pharmaceutical industry and its allies in Junqueira Schmidt. Citi announced in February according to Radio Bío Bío. Lawmaker Matias the U.S. Congress to avoid tapping into a legal that it would sell its retail banking and credit Walker said Burgos’ departure was unexpected. mechanism that some believe should only be card units in Brazil amid an effort by CEO Burgos had served as Bachelet’s cabinet chief used in cases of epidemics or public health Michael Corbat to cut costs and boost returns. and interior minister since May of last year. emergencies.

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR is published weekly by the Inter-American Dialogue Copyright © 2016 is the culmination of a long-term political retail fuel prices remain above interna- battle, a baby that he threatens to throw out tional rates, giving Petrobras a handsome Erik Brand with the bathwater. Further, there are good margin from its retail operations. As for the Publisher [email protected] reasons to believe that the long-run price second hurdle, despite its lingering fi nancial of oil can be maximized if oil producing repercussions, the corruption scandal is now Gene Kuleta Editor countries manage to carefully control their a police matter. Parente is a seasoned man- [email protected] output, and not hastily accelerate it. Finally, ager, with successful experience in both the Nicole Wasson an increase in oil production might represent public and private sectors. He will no doubt Reporter, Assistant Editor an increase in the state’s coffers, but will put devote appropriate attention to shaking up [email protected] the country’s climate negotiations in a more and transforming Petrobras’ internal culture. diffi cult position.” Parente had previously resisted accepting the position as the company’s CEO and Michael Shifter, President Armando Castelar Pinheiro, made the goal of avoiding government Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow coordinator of applied econom- intervention a condition for taking the job. Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow ics at the Instituto Brasileiro de I believe he will have a free hand in picking Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects Economia at Fundação Getulio Petrobras’ executive management, as has Kevin Casas-Zamora, Director, A Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program Vargas and professor of economics at the also been the case at BNDES. I foresee no Ramón Espinasa, Nonresident Senior Fellow Federal University of Rio de Janeiro: “The change in that as long as Petrobras’ fi nances Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program two main challenges Petrobras currently remain shaky and the corruption scandal is Alejandro Ganimian, Nonresident Fellow faces are lowering its net debt and restor- being investigated, but I recognize that this Peter Hakim, President Emeritus ing the self-esteem and cohesiveness of may change over time. Finally, Parente has a Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow its staff. To address the fi rst challenge, lot of experience in the public sector, as well Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow and not depend on a government bailout, as in the business sector: he was originally Margaret Myers, Director, China and Parente will have to sell some of Petrobras’ a central bank staffer, then deputy fi nance Latin America Program assets—a big challenge, given current oil minister and later the president’s chief of Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration prices. Additionally, the oil giant will have staff. Moreover, in the early 2000s he sat Remittances & Development to be more selective about new investment on the board of Petrobras, representing the Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow projects. In Parente’s favor is the fact that federal government. So he knows well the Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program Congress is revising the law so as to free way the government works.” Petrobras from the obligation to be the sole Latin America Energy Advisor is published operator of all pre-salt oil fi elds. There are The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A weekly, with the exception of some major signs that the market is already anticipating section. Readers can contact editor Gene U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue 1211 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 510 this move. Another positive is that Brazilian Kuleta at [email protected]. Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-822-9002 Fax: 202-822-9553 www.thedialogue.org ISSN 2163-7962 Subscription Inquiries are welcomed at What’s Keeping [email protected] The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole You Up at Night? view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or fi rms. The information in this report has been obtained The Latin America Advisor gets answers to the questions that informed executives from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and are asking, every business day, so that you can rest easy. completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the Prospective subscribers can email [email protected] contents of this publication, contact the editorial offi ces for complimentary preview access. SUBSCRIBE of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.