Hospitality Review Volume 16 Article 4 Issue 2 Hospitality Review Volume 16/Issue 2

January 1998 Prospects of the Kong Industry Rob Law The Polytechnic University, [email protected]

Catherine Cheung The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

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Recommended Citation Law, Rob and Cheung, Catherine (1998) "Prospects of the Hong Kong Tourism Industry," Hospitality Review: Vol. 16 : Iss. 2 , Article 4. Available at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/hospitalityreview/vol16/iss2/4

This work is brought to you for free and open access by FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Hospitality Review by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Prospects of the Hong Kong Tourism Industry

Abstract Suggestions for future planning are offered to Hong Kong tourism practitioners and policy makers on the basis of estimated tourism demand, 1998 to 2007. The uthora s give an overview of the historical background of the Hong Kong tourism industry and use formal tourism forecasting techniques to estimate this demand.

Keywords Hong Kong, Tourism, Demand Forecasting

Cover Page Footnote A Hong Kong Polytechnic University Research Grant (under Account Number: A-PA26) supported this research, in part

This article is available in Hospitality Review: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/hospitalityreview/vol16/iss2/4 Prospects of the Hong Kong tourism industry

by Rob Law and Catherine Cheung

Suggestions for future planning are offered coast of Lantau Island was ofE~

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. Table 1 Tourist arrivals, tourism receipts, and national wealth in Hong Kong

Percentage share Annual Number Total of total Annual gmwth of of tourism Total tourism gmwth of total tourist receipts GDP receipts in tourist tourism Year arrivals (HKSmn) (HK$mn) total GDP arrivals receipts

Note: Monetary ualues are at current market prices. Source: A Statistical Reuiew of Tourism, 1976~1998,and Commissioner oflnland Reuenue Annual Reuiew, 1967-1997.

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. have never occurred in colonial fleet defeated the Chinese troops history, for example, in 1997 the in the Opium War. In 1898, New number of tourist arrivals Territories were leased to Britain declined by 11.08 percent and for 99 years until June 30, 1997. tourism income dropped even h- Prior to the Second World War, ther to 14.69 percent. The number Hong Kong relied almost com- of visitors from North Asia (includ- pletely on entrep6t trade conduct- ing and ), ed with Britain, , China, Hong Kong's traditional leading European countries, Japan, and tourist market, decreased more the United States. However, trade than 55 percent since July 1997.' was seriously damaged when The entire Hong Kong tourism China was at war with Japan dur- industry, a~ the major foreign- ing World War 11. The Japanese exchange earner, is inevitably shipped out of Hong Kong in 1945 affected, with a negative impact and left behind a run-down, war- on related service industries such ruined, pre-industrial society with as airlines, hotels, restaurants, no clear future. ARer the Japanese retail, arts, and entertainment. withdrawal, British troops Previous studies have provid- returned to Hong Kong, and from ed forecasts for the Hong Kong 1947 to 1951, many industrialists, tourism industry after July 1997; especially the owners of cotton but were not based on formal mills in Shanghai, came to Hong tourism forecasts. This study pro- Kong from China and established vides an overview of the tourism the cotton textile industry. industry before and after the The world demand for clothing change of political sovereignty, was rising very fast in the 1950s. scrutinizing the fadors causing At that time, Hong Kong had the the changes in tourism demand advantage (as a member of the and attempting to formally fore- British Commonwealth) of prefer- cast future tourist arrivals in ential tariff treatment by Britain. Hong Kong for 1998 to 2007. Sug- In 1960, the textiles and clothing gestions are then provided to industries provided over 40 per- tourism policymakers and practi- cent of manufacturing employ- tioners to reshape the tourism ment. In less than a decade, Hong industry Kong made its mark on world markets as a small but dynamic Industry has two periods exporter of manufactured goods, The Hong Kong economy and principally textiles and clothing. tourism industry can be divided At the same time, a great variety into two major time periods: the of other industries such as manu- period of stabilization (pre-1961) facturing of plastic products, and the period of expansion (1961 shoes, gloves, torches, batteries, to 1997). bulbs, and thermos expanded Hong Kong was ceded to rapidly.4 Unfortunate% due to Britain in 1842 when the British insufficient tourism facilities and

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. associated infrastructural devel- Additionally, human capital in opment, Hong Kong was not a the period of the 1960s to the popular tourism destination in 1980s was another advantage for this period of time. Hong Kong's businesses to grow. Members of Hong Kong's work- Tourism begins to grow force were diligent, disciplined, In 1961, Hong Kong started to and cosmopolitan, many bilingual become an exciting place to visit, in English and Chinese and well and was accorded the distinction of connected with their counterparts being dcscribed as "a show window in Western societies. In the late of capitalism in the Ea~t."~The 1980s and 1990s, improved educa- Hong Kong tourism industry start- tion, upgraded technology and ed to boom in the late 1960s and skills, and a steady process of cap- the early 1970s. Commercial hotels ital accumulation have led Hong were built in to accommodate the Kong to impressive advances in increasing number of visitors, and productivity across various eco- associated transportation infra- nomic sectors, with tourism being structures such as the Cross Har- the most prominent. bour Tunnel and Mass Transit In the 1990s, the financial and Railway (subway) were developed. service industries eclipsed manu- From the mid-l970s, the facturing as Hong Kong's major expansion of the financial and industrial sector. While most man- business sectors was much faster ufacturing was done in China, than manufacturing. This has Hong Kong still served as a main diversified Hong Kong's economy. exporter and re-exporter. National Tourism and the import/export income and living standards con- trades also outpaced the growth of tinued to rise; Hong Kong boasted manufacturing. the highest number of cellular From the 1960s to 1997, the phones per capita.' hardworking characteristicsofthe Hong Kong's success as one of Hong Kong workforce, the geo- the world's largest financial and graphical advantages of the city, service centers was attributed to a and the British laissez-faire eco- number of factors, including the nomic policy allowed Hong Kong lack of harsh government controls, to achieve significant economic sensible business practices, good progress and sustained growth.6 geographical location, advanced The economic system was highly telecommunication networks, and liberalized, allowing ample flexi- free economic policies.% a result, bility and competition as well as Hong Kong achieved several the free flow of capital, manpower, international successes such as goods, and services. Geographical- being Asia's most popular tourist ly, Hong Kong is blessed with a destination and the eighth largest natural harbor and is situated at trading entity in the world.9 the heart of East Asia and at the Ghitelman claimed, "Hong Kong edge of China. is a place incentive groups cannot

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. just visit hut must also revisit, a signed about Hong Kong in the distinction it shares with Paris, past century. China claims these London, and precious few other treaties are unfair and prejudiced. l~cales."'~The driving forces that therefore, it never recngnizes attracted visitors to visit Hone them. In Se~tember1984. the into three major categories, &- allowed for the People3 Republic ing, shopping, and touring." of China to resume sovereignty As the "culinary heart ofAsia," over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, Hong Kong had the world's high- to be officially known as Hong est number of restaurants per Kong, China. However, the social- capita and the world's 10 busiest ist system and policies adopted in McDonald's restaurant^?^ China are not practiced in Hong Kong. Shopping is tax-free The new Hong Kong Interna- Heung and Qu'j stated the tional Auport officially opened in sole purpose of visiting Hong Kong July 1998 as part of the Port and for some tourists is to experience Airport Development Scheme shopping with tax-free prices for (PADS), a huge infrastructure pro- such items as ivory, jade, jewelry, ject involving an overall invest- watches, cameras, and antiques. ment of HK$127 billion. Within The city's co~~nedgeographi- the PADS, a six-lane highway cal area and efficient transporta- leading to the airport, a bridge tion system make it simple and linking Tsing Yi with Lantau easy to go touring city landmarks, Island, a third cross-harbor tun- theme parks, beaches, and har- nel, and a new town close to the bors, temples and monasteries, airport have all been built. These and traditional Chinese villages. A transportation projects were person could find the coexistence planned to immensely advance of the recently-operated Airport the trade and tourist capacities. Railway and half-century old While some of these aforemen- trams, as well as the manually- tioned economical and geographi- operated sampans and modem cal benefits still hold, the Hong luxury yachts. The suilable com- Kong tourism industry is facing a bination of the modem Western challenge. The total number of technologies and century-old Ori- tourist arrivals in 1997 was down ental civilization make Hong 11.08 percent, and total tourism Kong a unique place in the world. receipts reduced sharply by 14.69 On average, the percentage percent. These figures are the contribution of total tourism largest decreases in Hong Kong's receipts to total GDP was 6.64 per- history. Table 2 compares the cent in the period of 1966 to 1997 tourist arrivals before and &r (see Table 1). the political handover." Politically, China has always Tourist arrivals from North remained firm against the treaties Asia, Hong Kong's largest market

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. Table 2

Market Segment July, 96 - July, 97 - Percent Jan., 97 - Jan., 98 - Percent Dec., 96 Dec., 97 Change June, 97 June, 98 Change

The Americas 486,488 484,991 -0.31 8 558,796 499,395 -10.6 % Europe, Africa, and the Middle East 620,209 496,414 -19.96 % 679,773 515,067 -24.2 % , New Zealand, and South Pacific 185,623 161,287 -13.11 % 193,443 166,868 -13.7 % North Asia 1,562,375 671,259 -57.04 % 1,055,267 504,843 -52.2 % South and South East Asia 839,664 649,304 -22.67 7c 849,161 570,344 -32.8 % 1,101,044 902,926 -17.99 % 879,654 864,466 -1.7 % China 1,189,9641,076,018 -9.58 %, 1,221,110 1,186,074 -2.9 % Total 5,985,367 4,442,199 -25.78 85,709,157 4,512,567 -21.0 %

Source: A Stntistical Review of nurisr,~,1998, and VisitorArrivals Statistics, January.June 1998.

before handover, were down Industry faces decline 57.04 percent in the second half of The barriers leading to 1997. The decrease in North tourism decline in Hong Kong are Asian arrivals continued in the multifaceted. Shortly after the first several months of 1998 with political handover, the financial a 52.2 percent drop. Overall, turmoil hit Asia, which seriously Hong Kong experienced a 25.78 reduced the number of visitors percent drop in total tourist that Hong Kong mostly wanted to arrivals in the second half of attract, the emerging Asian mid- 1997, and from January to June dle class. Then, bird flu has affect- 1998, a 21 percent drop. Even ed the hygienic reputation of Hong Amy Chan, executive director of Kong. These barriers, in addition the Hong Kong Tourist Associa- to the environmental issues such tion, agreed that Hong Kong has as pollution and over-crowding, lost its unique colonial status have sharply lessened tourist which pushed visitor arrivals to arrivals. An immediate negative record highs before the change of impact to the hotel industry was a political sovereignty.15 5 percent staff cut.I6

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. Associated with the fall in have attained a certain degree of tourist arrivals are the drops in success in tourism forecasting, hotel room occupancy, tourism these approaches are bounded by receipts, and employment rate in many limitations such as the huge the tourism industry. In addition, costs involved, difficulty in data Hong Kong's image as a shopper's collection, and many predeter- paradise is diminishing. The mined rigid assumptions for the strong Hong Kong dollars, expen- approaches to work. sive rents, and high labor costs In contrast to the causal-rela- have raised prices, and shopping tionship approaches, time series malls in nearby cities such as forecasting techniques attempt to Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur pro- model a tourism relationship, vide the same items with a much using a univariate mathematical lower price tag. function between the crurrent and past values of a time series. The Forecasting would be beneficial advantages of time series forecast- It would be beneficial for the ing approaches are that they are Hong Kong tourism policy-makers simple to apply, requiring only the and practitioners to know demand past values of a data series, and no for tourism over the next 10 years assumption about other variables so that they can perform more is made. Time series forecasting accurate planning at strategic, approaches are well perceived in tactical, and operational levels. the tourism research field.20 Tourism forecasting divides In this research, two common- into qualitative and quantitative ly used time series forecasting streams. In qualitative approach- techniques, namely the Moving es, demand for tourism is Average (7) and the ARIMA (also "guessed by some non-standard- known as the Box-Jenkins), are ized ways.17Wde" classifies qual- used to forecast the numbers of itative tourism forecasting tech- visitors in Hong Kong from 1998 niques as "artistic" in nature to 2007. A Moving Average (7) where researchers are unable to technique forecasts the value at generalize their findings. Quanti- time period t by averaging the val- tative tourism forecasting ues of the seven time periods prior approaches consist of causal-rela- to t. The ARIMA approach is a tionship (also known as regres- complex time series forecasting sion) techniques and time series technique. To perform a forecast, techniques. A causal-relationship an ARIMA approach goes through technique attempts to quantify five different phases: preparation, the relationship of a dependent identification, estimation, diag- variable and a set of independent nostic checking, and fore~asting.~' variables using a multivariate AnARIMA(I,O,O)was found to be mathematical function through the most satisfadory model for the statistical analysi~.'~Although tourist arrival data (see Table 1). causal-relationship approaches This model, in turn, was used to

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. Table 3 Forecasted number of visitors in 1998 - 2007

Year Number of Visitors Number of Visitors (Moving Average) (ARIMA)

10,339,222 10,274,284 10,209,340 10,145,080 10,081,495 10,018,577 9,956,316 9,894,704 9,833,733 9,773,395 estimate the tourist arrivals in the industry still practices its freedom next 10 years (1998 - 2007). Table of management and operation 3 shows the forecasted values of since then. Apparently, most, ifnot tourist arrivals in Hong Kong in all, of the problems and difficulties the period of 1998 to 2007. that currently affect Hong Kong Observing the forecasted visi- tourism are unrelated to the Chi- tor arrivals numbers from 1998 to nese governance. 2007, both forecasting techniques indicate a decrease in tourism Problems are fundamental demand in Hong Kong over the The problems that the Hong next 10 years. Therefore, decision- Kong tourism industry presently makers in the Hong Kong tourism faces are fundamental ones which industry should plan for a dimin- cannot be tackled and solved easily ishing demand for tourism. by intrcducirlg a few new tourism The central Chinese govern- products. At present, the Hong ment has pledged to maintain Kong Tourist Association endeav- Hong Kong's lifestyle, free-market ors to re-advertise Hong Kong as a policies, and capitalist economy unique city with the most energetic unchanged for 50 years. Since people in the world, one of the July 1997, the Basic Law (consti- world's five premier international tution of SARI ensures this pledge cities, with the most concentrated remains unchanged when Hong diversity of experiences, which Kong becomes a highly truly lives to its Unfortu- autonomous SAR of China. Differ- nately, it is rare that a tourist is ent from the skeptical predictions willing to come to expensive Hang in the past,22Hong Kong's tourism Kong to experience these kinds of

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. uniqueness. The real uniqueness the opening of a new airport, ofHongKongin the past was prob- theme dining festivals, Tsing-Ma. ably the British flags flying in a Bridge, and the proposed hosting Chinese city. People from every- of the Hong Kong Exposition in where came to this former British the new millennium." Unfortu- colony to personally 6nd out how nately, most, if not all, of these the British could manage to con- items are not strong enough to vert this '%men rock" into an boost tourism. There is still an international cosmopolitan city." absence of uniqueness in Hong Unfortunately, this uniqueness Kong to attract international visi- bas also gone away with the tors to spend money to travel to British departure. The event of Hong Kong. "One Hundred Days of Wonders", What's more, China and Tai- shortly introduced after the politi- wan in 1997 for the first time over- cal handover, was viewed as not took Japan as the leading market much different from "One Hun- origins for the Hong Kong tourism dred Days of Blunders." industry (see Tables 4 and 5). The number of Japanese anivals after Competition is high July 1997 had the largest percent- Currently, Hong Kong's sur- age decrease, whereas the China rounding competitors offer similar and Taiwan markets have the tourism products at a relatively least percentage reduction. lower cost. For instance, Singa- Reports were presented in Japan pore is a city with a good mixture that Hong Kong hotels over- of eastern and western cultures, charged Japanese tourists signifi- and China would be a natural ~antly.~~This, in turn, seriously choice for western visitors to sense affected the opportunities of recov- the Oriental history. Similarly, ery in the Japanese market. Tokyo is a world-class financial Accordingly, a sensible strategic center, whereas Bangkok and movement for the tourism devel- Kuala Lunipur have shopping opment in Hong Kong is to repri- malls which sell most of the com- oritize markets selected for pro- modities that a person can find in motion and concentrate on key Hong Kong. markets as suggested by Hob~on.~~ What the Hong Kong tourism industry needs is a major restruc- Situation is unique turing and refocusing on market Hong Kong's experience in origins. For example, the intro- tourism is unique in recent world- duction of casinos could help wide history and ditferent from for- attract new visitors. Devaluation mer communist countries in East- of Hong Kong dollars could ern Europe that changed Eom increase the competitiveness of state-owned to privately-owned. It the Hong Kong tourism industry. basically remains the same since Ncw tourism products recently the handover. Fundamental prob- introduced in Hong Kong include lems such as expensive costs and

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. Visitor arrivals by market segment (Numbers in bracket represent ranking)

Market segment 1986 1991 1996 1997 The Americas 861,121 (1) 822,397 (6) 973,132 (6) 1,043,787 (6) Europe, Africa and the Middle East 644,972 (4) 879,840 (4) 1,278,174 (5) 1,176,187 (5) Australia, New Zealand, and South Pacific 306,756 (6) 284,965 (7) 381,901 (7) 354,730 (7) North Asia 772,231 (3) 1,444,429 (1) 2,779,439 (1) 1,726,526 (3) South and South East Asia 844,566 (2) 1,150,165 (3) 1,616,007 (4) 1,498,465 (4) Taiwan 220,469 (7) 1,298,039(2) 1,821,279 (3) 1,782,580 (2) China 363,479 (5) 875,062 (5) 2,311,184 (2) 2,297,128 (1)

Source: A Statistical Reuiew Of Tourism, 1986-1998. external factors such as the region- specifically applicable to their al financial crisis are the major dri- businesses. ving forces that made the Hong An example would be to Kong tourism industry decline. improve the usage of information The very high tourism receipts technology (IT). Although IT growth rates in the past have usage was common in the Hong shielded many managerial and Kong tourism industry, it was operational problems in the Hong mostly used at the level of appli- Kong tourism industry. To illus- cation sohare such as word-pro- trate, Hong Kong had an 88 per- cessing and spreadsheets to sup- cent hotel room occupancy rate in port daily operati~ns.~~However, 1996, whereas the corresponding instead of simply using IT for worldwide figure was less than 70 mundane operational tasks, the percent.28As a consequence, hotel process of computerization should investors and managers were all be raised to a strategic level in satisfied with past performance order to assist senior executives in and reluctant to introduce major making decisions and planning changes. The recent downturn in businesses. In these areas, Hong Kong's tourism industry tourism managers had been over- should provide reason for tourism ly conservative in bringing new practitioners and policymakers to technologies into their businesses. bring in new facilities and man- To re-stimulate tourism demand, agement techniques that are policymakers should relax visa

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. Table 5 Rankings of the top 3 source countries by visitor arrivals (1 986,1991,1996, and 1997)

Rankings 1986 1991 1996 1997 1 Japan Taiwan Japan China (727,219) (1,298,039) (2,382,890) (2,297,128) 2 USA Japan China Taiwan (704,428) (1,259,837) (2,311,184) (1,782,580) 3 China China Taiwan Japan (363,479) (875,062) (1,821,279) (1,368,988)

Source :A Statistical Re~lieu,Of Tourmm, 1986-1998.

entrance requirements for visi- researchers, practitioners, and tors. More training courses should government officials to discuss be conducted to trainlretrain ser- policy issues that are related to vice industry employees to be the Hong Kong tourism industry. more professional. With cautious The continuous stagnant, if' planning for related social issues, not declining, tourist arrivals are casinos with an Oriental style can almost a reality in coming years. be introduced in Hong Kong to Hong Kong needs to keep her attract new customers and to tourism industry steady through- retain existing customers. Anoth- out the regional financial crisis er possible promotional activity is and to minimize the decrease in to have Hong Kong team up with tourism demand. Hong Kong was nearby cities in China to form a used to very high hotel occupancy network. Visitors are then encour- rates and two-digit annual per- aged to stop in Hong Kong as part centage increases in tourism of a trip to China. However, Hong receipts. In the past 30 years, Kong should not only serve as a Hong Kong had enjoyed smooth gateway between China and the growth and steadily increasing world as it did in the past? but profitability and had formulated should have its own added values its plans for the future on a confi- for the China-originated and the dent predi~tion.~'Thc rcsults of China-bound visitors. In this 1997 and the projection for the process, income will be generated future tourist arrivals surely come for the Hong Kong economy. as an unpleasant shock. However, Hong Kong's researchers in it is time to put the recent situa- tourism should perform more tion in perspective and be more applied industrial-oriented realistic. In addition to exploring research projects rather than the- new markets for tourists, Hong oretical ones. Regular meetings Kong needs to recapture its major need to be held more often for lost markets in Asia when the eco-

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. nomic situation in Asia has recov- " K. S. Kwong. Tourism and the Hong Kong Economy (Hong Kong: City ered. Hong Kong is unlikely to University of Hang Kong Press, 1997) becomc a shopper's paradise again M. Bailey, "Hong Kong," EIU Inter- and will never be a British colony national Tourzsm Reports 4 (1995): 5-21: in the future; howevcr, it can be a A Granitsas, 'W~shYouWere Hcrc,"Far Eastern Economic Reuiew (January cultural center and a cosmopoli- 19981: 51. tan opening in China. Hang Kong

,~ " - ~- ~- ~ " H. Qu and I. Li, "The Characteris- tics and Satisfaction of Mainland Chi- seeking high quality services and nese Visitors to Hong Kong," Jourr~alof entertainment. A new and com- 'Dauel Researcl~35, No. 4 (1997): 37-41; prehensive vision of how Hong 0.H. M.Yau and C. I? Chan, "Hong Kong as a travel destination in south-east Kong's tourism industry should Asia: a multidimensional approach." go forth in the next century is ?burism Management 11, No. 2 (1990): urgently required. Simply intro- 123.132. l2 Hong Kong Tourist Association, A ducing a few new tourism prod- Statistical Review of Tourism (Hong ucts does not help solve the fun- Kong Tourist Association. 1976-1998). damental problems. la V C. S. Heung and H. Qu, An analysis of tourism shopping and its impact on the retail trade in Hong Kong. Proceedings of the Asia Pacific Tourism References Association Conference, Taiwan, (August 1997): 321-323. Hong Kong Tourist Association, A " Hong Kong Tourist Association, Statistical Reoie~u of Tourism (Hong Visitor Arrivals Statistics: Junuury-May, Kong Tourist Association, 1967-1998); (Hong Kong Tourist Association, July Hong Kong Statistics Department, Com- 1998). missioner ofInlandKeuenue (Hong Kong Granitsas: 51. 'W. Statistics Department, 1967-1997). Pcole and K. C. Ng, "Hotel staff Hong Kong Tourist Assmiation. warned of more cutbacks," South China Visltor Arrivals Statistics: Janualv-Mav, Morning Post (March 5, 19983: B5. 1998 (Hong Kong Tourist Assosatink, " D. C. Frechtling, Practical July 1998). Tourism Forecasting, (Oxford: Butter- F. Go. R. Pine and R. Yu. "Hone worth-Heinemam, 1996). Kong: sustaining Competitive 'Advan- :%. H. Walle, "Quantitative Versus tage in Asiai; Hotel Industry," Cornell Qualitative Tourism Researrh," Annals H.R.A. Quarterly (1994): 50-61; VC.S. of Tourism Research 24, No. 3 (1997): 524-536. Heung, 'The Hong Kong Tourism Indus- m H Qu and S. Lam, "Atravel try in Transition," Cornell 1I.R.A. Quar- terly (19971: 51-59. demand model for Mainland Chinese ' A. J. Youngson, Hong Kong Eco- tourists to Hong Kong," Tourism Man- nomic Growth urrd Policy IHong Kong: agement 18, No. 8 (1997): 593-597. Oxford University Press, 1982). " W. l? Andrew, D. A. Cranage, and ' Youngson, 7. C. K. Lee, "Forecasting Hotel Occupancy WE.K. Y Chen, "The Economic Set- Rates wit11 Time Series Models: An ting," The business enuimnment in Hang Empirical Analysis," Hospita1it.v Kong; E. Chen, D. Lethhridge, and S. H. Research Journal 14, No. 2 (1991): 173- Ng, eds. (Hong Kong: Oxford University 181; A. Athiyaman and R. W. Robertson, Press, 19951, 1-43. "Time Series Forecasting Techniques: ' J. McLaughlin. "Hong Kong: New Short-Term Planning in Tourism.'' Inter- Capitalist Mecca," Restaurant Business national Journal of Contemporary Hos- 24, No. 32 (August 1994). pitality Management 4 No. 4 (1992):8-11, Frechtling, 1996.

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher. 22 J. S,P. Hobon and G. KO.'Toorism 30 W S. Chow, -Open Policy and and Politics: The Implications of the 'Iburism between and Hong Change in Sovereignty on the Future Kong," Annals of Tourism Research 15. Development of Hong Kong's Tourism No. 2 (1088): 205-218; C. Muk and B. Industw." 32. No. 4 (1994): 2-8: I. Slater, "Residents' attitudes toward hlaraulr?.. .-llo;i# K. A Synl- tourism in Hong Kong," International bol ad'0ntini;rn" Ilolrli June 1991 4b- Journal of Ifuspilality Management 10. 51. No. 3 (1991): 289-293; T. Y C. Wong and 'V. Baker, "Chan's Challenge," SUC- K. S. Kwong, 'The Role of Hong Kong in cessful Meetings (January 1993): 62-65. AsiaS Regional Economic tiromh and M. Adams, "Horizons: The Endur- Development," The business enoiron- ing Allure of Hong Kong," Successful ment in Hong Knng, E. Chen, D. Leth- Meetings (May 1989): 152-168; R. bridge, and S. H. Ng, eds. (Hong Kong: Amster, "Hong Kong," S~rccessfilMeet- Oxford University Press, 1995): 162-189. ings (May 1994): 166-168. "' J. A. Donoghue, "AAPA topic: lWong Kong Tourist Association, A Asian ailments," Air Pansport World 1 Statistical review of Tourism (Hone Kona- (1998): 70-71. Tourist ~ssociation,1967-1998) 'Mackey, 1998. J. S. P. Hobson, "Hong Kong: the " Rob Law is an assistant professor and Cather- transition to 1997," 7hansm Manage- ine Cheung L a kturer in the Lkpartmnt of ment 16. No. l(1995): 15-20. Hotel and lburisrn hlamgement, ThE Hong Hbng Kong Tourist Association, A Kong Polytechnic Unruersity, Hung Horn, Statistiral Review of Tourism (Hong Kuruluurr, Hung KOIW. Kong Tourist Association, 1967-1998). " R. Law and N. Au, "Hong Kong Aduwwledaement: A Hong Kong Polytechmc Hospitality: The Application of Informa- Uruverslty Hesearch Grant (under Account tion Technology to Achieve Competitive Numbpr: A-PAX) supported this research, in Advantage," Proceedmgs of the Hong ,,art. Kong International Computer Confer- ence '97 (October 1997, Day 1): 52-56.

Law and Cheung 51

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FIU Hospitality Review, Volume 16, Number 2, 1998 Contents © 1998 by FIU Hospitality Review. The rcproduction of any artwork, editorial or other material is expressly prohibited without written permission h m the publisher.