Pacific Forum CSIS Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Brad Glosserman Vivian Brailey Fritschi 2nd Quarter 2004 Vol. 6, No. 2 July 2004 www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia- Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum’s work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia- Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects’ findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work; it is chaired by Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Brad Glosserman and Vivian Brailey Fritschi Volume 6, Number 2 Second Quarter 2004 Honolulu, Hawaii July 2004 Comparative Connections A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the U.S., to realize complex political, economic, and security interests. How one set of bilateral interests affects a country’s other key relations is becoming more fluid and complex, and at the same time is becoming more central to the region’s overall strategic compass. Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum’s quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Brad Glosserman and Vivian Brailey Fritschi, with Ralph A. Cossa serving as senior editor, was created in response to this unique environment. Comparative Connections provides timely and insightful analyses on key bilateral relationships in the region, including those involving the U.S. We regularly cover 12 key bilateral relationships that are critical for the region. While we recognize the importance of other states in the region, our intention is to keep the core of the e- journal to a manageable and readable length. Because our project cannot give full attention to each of the relationships in Asia, coverage of U.S.-Southeast Asia and China-Southeast Asia countries consists of a summary of individual bilateral relationships, and may shift focus from country to country as events warrant. Other bilateral relationships may be tracked periodically (such as various bilateral relationships with India or Australia’s significant relationships) as events dictate. Our aim is to inform and interpret the significant issues driving political, economic, and security affairs of the U.S. and East Asian relations by an ongoing analysis of events in each key bilateral relationship. The reports, written by a variety of experts in Asian affairs, focus on political/security developments, but economic issues are also addressed. Each essay is accompanied by a chronology of significant events occurring between the states in question during the quarter. A regional overview section places bilateral relationships in a broader context of regional relations. By providing value-added interpretative analyses, as well as factual accounts of key events, the e-journal illuminates patterns in Asian bilateral relations that may appear as isolated events and better defines the impact bilateral relationships have upon one another and on regional security. ii Table of Contents Regional Overview:………………………………………………………………………………1 Multilateralism and Democracy March On, To Many Different Drummers by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS Six-party talks about North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs dominated the multilateral agenda this quarter. A series of meetings constituted as much movement as had been seen since the standoff began in October 2002; whether this equates to real progress was not clear. Meanwhile, Washington’s efforts to develop a broader global consensus in support of its campaign against WMD saw some progress, even as the regional implications of its Global Posture Strategy were beginning to be felt. Throughout Asia, the democratic process moved forward, albeit unevenly, with elections in Taiwan, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, and Mongolia. Events in Burma and Hong Kong were less encouraging. There was a flurry of other multilateral activity, including two major track-two events that were boycotted by the PRC. Asia continues to be the most dynamic area in the global economy. Finally, President Bush promised to “stay the course,” as sovereignty was handed over to a new UN-arranged government in Iraq. U.S.-Japan Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..27 Mr. Koizumi’s Payback by Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS Relations between the United States and Japan were very good this quarter, even though a number of events threatened to derail the solid ties between the two governments. A hostage crisis in Iraq and the discovery of an alleged al-Qaeda network in Japan brought home to Japanese the reality of the war on terror. No longer could they disassociate themselves from events half a world away. By the end of the quarter, both governments could point to their relationship as an example of how an alliance is supposed to work; Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro could finally make the case that his close relationship with President Bush paid tangible dividends, as Washington’s more flexible approach toward North Korea was attributed in part to Koizumi’s personal lobbying. Not only was his strategy vindicated, but he could point to an outcome on a key policy that a majority of Japanese could support. iii U.S.-China Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..37 Anxiety About Taiwan Hits New Highs by Bonnie S. Glaser, Consultant on Asian Affairs Vice President Dick Cheney made a long-awaited visit to China this quarter and engaged in strategic dialogue with China’s top leaders, who underscored the dangers of Taiwan independence in the aftermath of the re-election of Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian. Despite U.S. efforts to allay Beijing’s fears, Chinese dissatisfaction with U.S. policy toward Taiwan spilled over into other policy arenas, influencing its handling of Iraq and North Korea. This quarter also saw a host of activity in the economic realm, with the convening of the 15th U.S.- China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, June visits to China by U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Don Evans, and the signing of numerous bilateral economic agreements. U.S.-Korea Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..49 Strains in the Alliance, and the U.S. Offers a Nuclear Deal by Donald G. Gross, Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld North Korea conducted an impressive diplomatic campaign during this quarter to improve its relations with China, South Korea, and Japan, and thus strengthen its position in the six-party talks. In late June, under pressure from South Korea and Japan, the Bush administration made its first detailed negotiating proposal on the nuclear issue since taking office. The proposal called for a freeze of North Korea’s nuclear program, accompanied by energy aid from South Korea, China, and Japan, as well as a “provisional security guarantee.” If North Korea readmits inspectors to verify compliance and meets specific deadlines for nuclear dismantlement, the U.S. would agree to continue energy assistance, provide permanent security guarantees, and take a variety of other steps to normalize relations. U.S.-Russia Relations:………………………………………………………………………….59 A Spring Thaw after a Freezing Winter? by Joseph Ferguson, The National Bureau of Asian Research After a trying winter, the spring seemed to offer some hope that U.S.-Russia relations could be brought back onto a more conciliatory track. At the G8 Summit on Sea Island, Georgia, both Presidents Bush and Putin expressed a determination to continue the partnership in the war on terror and in nonproliferation efforts. Prior to the summit, Russia endorsed the U.S.-U.K.- sponsored UN Security Council resolution on Iraqi sovereignty. Additionally, Putin seemed to give Bush a shot in the arm with his revelation that Russian intelligence had passed information on Iraqi plans to attack U.S. targets before the March 2003 invasion. Nevertheless, there are still serious obstacles for the bilateral relationship in the months ahead, particularly as neither nation seems to be able to get a grip on its respective “occupation” duties in Chechnya and Iraq. iv U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations:………………………………………………………………...67 Pausing for Politics Richard W. Baker, East-West Center A combination of domestic political preoccupations in Southeast Asian countries, the presidential election campaign in the United States, and continuing sensitivities over the U.S.-led intervention in Iraq meant that U.S. relations with Southeast Asia were essentially on hold during the second quarter of 2004. Nevertheless, ongoing concerns, including terrorism and piracy as well as the increasingly crowded calendar of regular regional meetings, ensured that activity and dialogue continued at a relatively intense pace throughout the quarter. Terrorism remains the primary shared concern of the governments of Southeast Asia and the U.S. But unease over American military dominance and skepticism in the region (especially but not exclusively among Islamic populations) over the Iraq intervention are such that cooperation with the U.S.